Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points

[RedSpartan]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110533/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Now-Leads-McCain-Points.aspx

---

[dtotire]

1. That's where it was a month ago.

Rasmussen still has him 48-48,

[YOY]

3. Ras leads to the right. They poll "usual voters" not new or irregular voters.

Always has...always will.

[flamingdem]

10. NOTE: Rasmussen is an Evangelical!

Right wing fundie..

[heliarc]

6. And Rasmussen is more accurate...

but I think its safe to say that Obama wins the round of media debate on the economy. McCain dug himself a deep hole with the "fundamentals of the economy" gaffe

[notaboutus]

15. Obama WINS Period!

Only because it adds in the republican "FIX". They add in the republican cheat, but not this time not this year. They will be in jail this time. Also in "2004" and "2006" there was no so called Bradley Effect some corp media and press just refuse to give Obama his due. The democrats are tired of being stepped on and Nancy and Harry, say what you will about them but they don't play games and can get as ruthless as the rethuglicans if necessary.
They all have inside polls that are way more accurate which is why when ever David Axlerod was on during the conventions and they asked him about the polls he would let them no in terms unable to be used on television what he thought of their polls.
If you are really concerned get everyone you know to VOTE EARLY!

[qwlauren35]

25. Just don't get lazy, don't get cocky, don't take a breather.

For 45 more days, we MUST continue to push our country into a resounding "state of blueness".

He doesn't just need to win, he needs a "mandate". I want to see him win by 75%. Does it seem impossible? Well, frankly, the entire idea of Barack Obama, junior Senator from Illinois, running for president sounded ridiculous 8 years ago. The idea of Obama winning the primary was considered highly unlikely 12 months ago.

So, while 75% may seem farfetched, please remember that Bush's popularity is currently at 25%. I think that's something we can exploit... as long as we keep pushing, working our butts off, and making it happen.

And fer cryin' out loud, QUIT YAPPIN' ABOUT "gloves off" advertisements. This is an ON-THE-GROUND campaign. So, if you're not on the ground campaigning in some way (and there are MANY!!!) then you don't get it.

And may not want to win all that badly.

[cosmicone]

2. yay !! n/t

[GodlessBiker]

4. Odds that Obama will go to 50 on the next one? I say he will.

[RedSpartan]

5. I agree (n/t)

[GodlessBiker]

28. Looks like we were right.

[kestrel91316]

7. Wait 'til work gets out into the general population about Palin's

John Birch Society ties.

[crossroads]

12. Do tell!

This is news to me! Please elaborate...


CR

[mcg]

13. two threads re Palin and John Birch Society newsletter ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7115747

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7112085

[crossroads]

16. Thank you!

I somehow missed them... much appreciated!

CR

[AndyTiedye]

8. This is More Like it!

:party:

[flamingdem]

9. .... finally!

[crossroads]

11. About time people wake up!

Methinks the bloom is fading off Palins rose revealing the stench of the Repuke party!!

CR

[Hardrada]

17. Makes scents to me!

[crossroads]

22. LOL... clever! nt

[Turn CO Blue]

14. So now Gallup is back to showing "registered voters" when Obama is

ahead. After the RNC convention and McCain was ahead, they were showing "likely voters" to make it appear that McCain had an even bigger lead than he did.

from the big Orange:
<http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/15/74531/5933/788/599244>

~snip~
But I want to focus on the poll Gallup released last Monday, Sept. 8th, through USA Today, that used a sudden, unexplained, temporary shift to the likely voter model and caused a huge splash in the media.

Dick Diver's diary :: ::
That poll, taken in the three days immediately following the Republican National Convention, showed by far the largest national lead McCain has ever had in any poll (54-44 among likely voters), and generated a tremendous amount of attention. It helped drive the buzz for all of last week -- that McCain got a huge bounce from his convention, that Palin was a game-changer, that Obama was in big trouble, etc.

Notice that Gallup never released a likely voter poll over the three days immediately following the Democratic convention -- nor did it release any polls through USA Today during Obama's bounce. Putting it in USA Today guarantees far greater attention than the tracking poll alone gets.

~snip~

In other words, Gallup is admitting the following:

~At the time it released the September 8th poll (showing McCain up by 10), it believed institutionally that likely voter results were less accurate than registered voter results.

~Likely voter results have only occasionally diverged from the registered voter results.

~Despite these facts, Gallup deliberately chose to release, to the widest fanfare possible, a poll using an admittedly less accurate method (the likely voter method) at the time of McCain's maximum convention bounce, knowing that it would show a large divergence (+10 for McCain vs. only +4 with registered voters) based on the likely voter method, even though such a divergence is not often present.

~In short, they combined all possible factors in McCain's favor to make his lead seem as big as possible -- and the media went wild with it.

[MissMillie]

18. According to their site, that's outside the margin of error

but registered voters is not "likely voters"....


But I like the trend. Amazing how when the issues get discussed, Obama's popularity grows.

[robcon]

19. Where are the conspiracy theorists? Are all polls biased for the corporatocracy?

Oh. I forgot - only when the Repugs are in ascendancy. It think the two-week Palin bump is over, and the polls, as they always did, accurately project voter preferences.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Yep. Move along...

The pollsters love us! :loveya:

[melody]

26. Everybody knows there is subjectivity in poll interpretation

Everyone knows that people objectively react differently to favorable versus unfavorable polls. People aren't on this board doing high math -- they're reacting subjectively and in the moment.

[Piewhacket]

20. Hellooooooooo hellooooo ... DUers

in the presidential race...
its the electoral college vote that counts, dang nab it people.

so ka-puleese stop a countin them CHICKENS and
start counting the EGGS (ELECTORAL VOTES).

[BigAnth]

21. Let's expect to see even more desparation moves from McLame

I'm hoping that he's going to pull out all the stops and screw up big time.

[and-justice-for-all]

23. Mcfalin must be destroyed...nt

[RBInMaine]

27. GOOD ! KEEP POUNDING GRAMPY'S ASS !!! MORE ATTACK ADS AGAINST MCSAME !!!!