Poll Sees Obama Leading In 5 Battleground

[maddezmom]

Source: Wisctv.com

UPDATED: 12:10 pm CDT September 23, 2008


Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama appears to be well ahead of rival Republican candidate Sen. John McCain in four key battleground states, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The polls were conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com and released Tuesday.

More voters in each of the four states also said they prefered Democratic vice presidential candidate Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware over Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as running mate.

The Quinnipiac surveys found that Obama has double-digit leads among women in every state except Minnesota. In Colorado, he pulled ahead of McCain after trailing in July.

Colorado: Obama 49 percent, McCain 45 percent (July: Obama 46, McCain 47)
Michigan: Obama 48 percent, McCain 44 percent (July: Obama 46, McCain 42)
Minnesota: Obama 47 percent, McCain 45 percent (July: Obama 46, McCain 44)
Wisconsin: Obama 49 percent, McCain 42 percent (July: Obama 50, McCain 39)

~snip~

In a separate poll, Obama leads McCain 49-46 percent in Virginia, a state once considered a safe Republican bet that has now moved in to battleground territory.

Read more: http://www.channel3000.com/politics/17538542/detail.html

[Venceremos]

1. That's only 4

[lonestarnot]

2. so?

[maddezmom]

5. with VA it's 5

see edit

[4lbs]

3. Isn't that 5?

They mentioned 5 states: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

I guess it should have started with "Polls see ..."

[maddezmom]

4. thanks, I edited my edit

:hi:

[kirby]

6. Recent article said he needs to lead by 6% due to being black.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/09/22/poll-barack-obama-could-lose-six-percentage-points-on-election-day-for-being-blackc_print.htm

"There's a penalty for prejudice, and it's not trivial," Stanford University political scientist Paul Sniderman told the AP."

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Recent article = pile of bullshit

Critical thinking helps.

[kirby]

10. Recent article was based on an actual Poll, not opinion. n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. ROFL

Your distinction between "poll" and "opinion" is hilarious.

[travelingtypist]

12. Dismiss this at your peril.

Might want to check some history before you get all snippy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Bradley effect
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The term Bradley effect, less commonly called<1> the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.<2><3><4> Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.<5>

One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will appear to the pollster to be racially prejudiced. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters' answers. Some pollsters believe that they do not receive deliberately false answers from white voters. The Bradley effect, these pollsters believe, is caused by pollsters' failure to account for general political leanings among voters who are undecided between Democrats and Republicans.

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. wikipedia article = pile of bullshit

What peril? What could we possibly do about it if we didn't dismiss it? Worry? Oh no. I'm worried now.

Bah. This is unverifiable nonsense and speculation, period. And its utterly useless information to boot.

[travelingtypist]

16. Honey goes over better than vinegar...

friend. You're so full of vinegar I'll bet your nickname is Pickle.

The Bradley Effect is still in effect
A San Diego columnist disputes Gregory Rodriguez’s claims on blacks, Latinos and voting.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oew-contreras5feb05,0,5145379.story

Obama and the Bradley Effect
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-fauntroy-phd/obama-and-the-bradley-eff_b_120286.html

The Bradley Effect
http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/08/09/the-bradley-effect/

Now call those sources bullshit.

:eyes:

A rational discussion would be nice here.

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. More bullshit

Speculation based on nonsense from 25 years ago.

Stupid bullshit, even. Sucker bet kind of know-nothing bullshit.,

[travelingtypist]

19. Hello? Hello? Hello?

You sure threw around bullshit a lot.

:wtf:

Loving the crickets.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. Get a life.

[crossroads]

24. When Joe Blow sees red over lost greenbacks

anything can happen and usually does! I feel people will get color blind pretty quick when they wake up to this bailout deal! Outragious...

CR

[Doctor_J]

7. And don't forget NC

Supposedly that's in play, with Smirk and Dole dragging McSame under water there.

Please, let it be true.

[ryanmuegge]

9. Oh, I thought it meant states he normally wouldn't win in.

Colorado would be a nice one, though, if he can pull it off.

I was hoping it'd be Ohio and Virginia. He was pretty much expected to win three of these states anyway.

[DuaneBidoux]

13. Personally I don't consider Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin battleground. Virginia & Co yes.

Maybe I shouldn't take those three states for granted but I just can't believe they would go red.

On the other hand, VA and CO. That's exciting!

[kwolf68]

15. I am in disbelief

Look, I AM HAPPY as shit Virginia is looking this way, but I can tell you right now the number of Kerry signs from 04 vastly outnumber the Obama stickers/signs. And since Palindrone became the Veep pick, Ive seen many bumper stickers for them.

Is it that people intend to vote for Obama, but aren't going to promote it?

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. Do you live in a cave? People are being careful, and I don't blame them...

Surely you've heard about Obama signs being stolen, and they're not free. There was a report the other day that someone had set fire to an Obama sign in someone's yard, another case where the yard sign was spray painted with racial epithets. Not everyone who's going to vote for Obama is going to display it in their yard, or on their car for fear of vandalism.

[adsdan]

17. Keep it up BO ..

[Hissyspit]

22. Poll: Obama Leads in 4 Battleground States

Source: McClatchy Newspapers

Poll: Obama leads in 4 battleground states

Barack Obama holds a small lead in four battleground states, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

Posted on Tue, Sep. 23, 2008

BY STEVEN THOMMA
[e-mail]
WASHINGTON -- Hunger for change is helping Barack Obama hold a small lead in four battleground states, a new poll indicated Tuesday.

The numbers:

• In Colorado, Obama leads John McCain 49-45. He had trailed in the last survey there before the conventions.
• In Michigan, Obama leads 48-44. He also led by 4 points before.
• In Minnesota, Obama leads 47-45. He also led by 2 points before.
• In Wisconsin, Obama leads 49-42. He had led by a wider margin before.

The key reason for Obama's edge appears to be that voters want change and by wide margins see Obama as the more likely agent of change than McCain. They preferred Obama to change things by margins ranging from 19 to 24 points.

''With a lousy economy, an unpopular war and an even less popular Republican president, it's difficult to find voters who don't want change,'' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Polling Institute at Quinnipiac University, which conducted the polls in conjunction with the Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/story/698127.html

[krkaufman]

23. That's not all that positive of news... given 3 of the 4 have been Democratic states ...

... in recent elections.

[and-justice-for-all]

25. I think the debats will move Obama up even more...

as long as he connects with folks and answers the questions without the long version.

[olddad56]

26. if he Obama doesn't lead in your state, think about moving away from the morons.