STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 24, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 117
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2802 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2527 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2818
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 22, 2008

Dow... 10,854.17 -161.84 (-1.47%)
Nasdaq... 2,153.33 -25.65 (-1.18%)
S&P 500... 1,188.22 -18.87 (-1.56%)
Gold future... 891.20 -17.80 (-1.96%)
30-Year Bond 4.43% +0.03 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.84% +0.02 (+0.39%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[truthisfreedom]

1. Today should be interesting.

We have top Dems and Repubs saying the bailout sucks.

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

Pondering the Last Wrench in the Tool Kit
Will RTC(B) contain CDS? We wonder
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

It is my view today that the state of affairs hangs in a precarious balance. All eyes are on Washington with Senate hearings this morning featuring Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke making their pitch to the Congress that the $700 Billion dollar Resolution Trust Corp (B) be passed with a matter of great urgency.

Last week’s credit market panic ensued following the collapse of Lehman Brothers spilled into the money market fund industry causing the Regions Fund to ‘break the buck.’ Not as heavily discussed, but a cause of grave concern. Behind the scenes remains Lehman’s Credit Default Swap contracts and those of AIG, the insurance giant at the very center of CDS. At the moment, the operating consensus seems to be that while theoretical CDS pricing continues for various institutions and even for Uncle Sam, in reality this pricing is not being determined by any substantial volume, but mostly by purely academic models. Speaking with a block trader who insisted on anonymity at a major New York investment banker last week, the commentary I received suggested that the CDS market has frozen up and was ‘in a shambles,’ with virtually no trading taking place as a forced mark-to–mark outcome at this juncture could spell disaster in the event of real price discovery.

.....

In my view, if prices do not hold the recent lows, there is a good chance that the stock indices will unwind rapidly back down to the 2002-2003 lows which is the next support. That is essentially crash like action and could be a hammer blow to the system given the precarious state of confidence at the current time. As of this writing, the 20 month lower band closed today at 1214.92, with any sustained move below that likely to be signaling a downside continuation pattern. Mind you, with things in such a perilous state, we are hoping that the market can find its confidence and hold last week's lows, and that the political response to this bail out bill is both sensible and expeditious. The problem is that the market seems to be backed into a real corner. In the stock market anything that can lead to more uncertainty about the resolution of a given problem is bad news, and at the moment the markets stock pile of good will seem about gone. That means for most investors, raising cash and or remaining on the sidelines is a key aspect of self-preservation. It is a function of today’s markets that things happen very quickly and if a panic sell off were to develop, odds are high that a gap down open would be involved.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

Yesterday was a hiccup. Mea culpa.

10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug
Briefing.com 4.95M
Consensus 4.93M
Prior 5.00M

10:35 Crude Inventories 09/20
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

25. RPT-US mortgage mortgage applications fell in latest week

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2340697120080924

NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages retreated to sluggish levels last week as rising interest rates spoiled a spurt in loan refinancing, according to data published from an industry group on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity dropped 10.6 percent to 591.4 in the week ended Sept 19.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications declined 11.2 percent to 2,043.4 last week as the average 30-year mortgage rate surged 0.26 percentage point to 6.06 percent, the MBA said.

The MBA index of loan requests for home purchases fell 10 percent to 342.2.

U.S. Treasury yields surged last week from their lowest levels since May as investors, speculated on government intervention to ease the financial crisis, and dumped U.S. debt they had held as a safe-haven. Mortgage rates, influenced by Treasury yields, were also at their lowest level since May.

...more...

[Roland99]

49. U.S. August existing home sales down 2% to 4.91 mln pace (slower than expected)

U.S. August existing home sales down 2% to 4.91 mln pace
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B934D7D02%2DAB93%2D450F%2DA514%2D7B16640FE4E5%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos fell 2.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected sales to hit 4.93 million. Resales have fallen 10.7% in the past year. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 7% to 4.26 million, an 10.4 month supply at the current sales pace. This is the lowest level since March. The median sales prices fell 9.5% in the past year to $203,100. For July, resales rose a revised 3.5%, compared with the prior estimate of a 3.1% rise. End of Story

[ozymandius]

4. Oil rises above $108 as investors eye US bailout

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose above $108 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as investors waited for details of a proposed $700 billion plan to buy bad mortgage debt and stabilize the U.S. financial system.

Oil traders are scrutinizing the plan because of its possible impact on the global economy — and demand for oil.

"There's going to be fence-sitting in the market until we know more about this risky package in the U.S.," said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist with ANZ Bank in Melbourne.

...

Light, sweet crude for November delivery was up $1.91 to $108.52 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell overnight $2.76 to settle at $106.61.

...

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.87 cent to $3.005 a gallon, while gasoline prices rose 0.5 cent to $2.60 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery rose 12.9 cents to $8.06 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Buffett's Berkshire betting $5 billion on Goldman

OMAHA, Neb. - One of the world's shrewdest dealmakers is betting $5 billion of his investors' money that the U.S. financial system is not about to collapse.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said Tuesday it investing at least $5 billion in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., a huge vote of confidence for one of the survivors of the credit crisis that felled two of its investment banking peers.

In addition to buying $5 billion in preferred stock, Berkshire also got warrants to buy another $5 billion in Goldman's common stock. Goldman also said late Tuesday it would raise another $2.5 billion in its own public stock offering.

...

Berkshire's preferred stock in Goldman will pay 10 percent and can be bought back any time at 10 percent premium. The warrants allow Berkshire to buy $5 billion in common stock at $115 per share any time over the next five years.

Goldman's shares rose $4.27, or 3.5 percent, to close at $125.05 Tuesday in the regular trading session, and jumped another $9.70, or 7.8 percent, to $134.75 in after-hours trading following the announcement of Buffett's investment.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_bi_ge/goldman_sachs_berkshire

[NeoConsSuck]

8. Bloomberg.com is saying

this is the reason why futures are flying this morning. I would include link, but I *need* my morning coffee.

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. futures up; eyes on Bernanke, Paulson, Goldman

* Dow Jones futures DJc1 up 1.2 pct, S&P 500 futures SPc1 up 1.4 pct, Nasdaq futures up 1.3 pct by 0840 GMT.

* Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Congress testimony on the U.S. economic outlook at 1400 GMT; Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on the $700 billion bailout plan at 1830 GMT.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALO6630520080924?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

11. Analysis: This is not a confidence measure.

Vote of confidence? Hardly. Doubtful. It is merely an opportunistic deal, and probably a damn good one, for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). On the other hand, for Goldman Sachs, it is a very expensive deal. If you delve beneath the headlines, you see that Warren is not so much making a vote of confidence as he is extracting pound of flesh (and then some).

Verily, let's look at the details to figure out just how much GS is paying for this capital:

• Goldman Sachs pays a fat dividend to Berkshire Hathaway of 10% on $5 Billion dollars -- that's $500 million per year. And, since this is a preferred, it gets paid out of net income in after tax dollars dollars. Ouch.

• Goldman gets the right to call the preferred at any time at a 10 percent premium. Ouch again.

• Buffett gets $5 billion worth of warrants with a strike price of $115, or about 43.47 million shares. The warrants are good for only 5 years.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/i-got-75b-but-i.html

[Hugin]

37. Maybe now that it's a real bank he feels comfortable investing.

Could be lots of reasons, including a large number of his investors work at Goldman-Sachs? (Note: Pure guessing here.)

Whatever, I'm willing to give a rare benefit-of-a-doubt to Buffett on this one. He's doing his job.

[ozymandius]

6. FBI investigates four Wall Street firms over sub-prime meltdown

The FBI is investigating four Wall Street institutions at the heart of the financial crisis over their role in the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, it emerged today.

Reports said preliminary investigations into potential corporate fraud at the US mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the insurer American International Group and the investment bank Lehman Brothers had been opened.

They are among 26 companies being scrutinised by the FBI. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and AIG were bailed out by the government in the last fortnight, while Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.

Senior executives at the companies are also believed to be in the FBI's sights, while the securities and exchange commission is also reportedly assessing possible civil fraud claims against the four firms.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/24/wallstreet.freddiemacandfanniemae

[Changenow]

31. Paulson protected Goldman from the worst of this

Buffet is no fool.

[TalkingDog]

54. Marcy Kapture ROCKS! "they want mama to make it all better"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbD62gNi9WE

A Dem speaking truth to power.....

"....change the name of the U.S. Treasury to the Sovereign Wealth Fund" bwahahahaahaaaaa!!!!

[ozymandius]

7. Buffett's "time bomb" goes off on Wall Street

CHICAGO (Reuters) - On Main Street, insurance protects people from the effects of catastrophes.

But on Wall Street, specialized insurance known as a credit default swaps are turning a bad situation into a catastrophe.

When historians write about the current crisis, much of the blame will go to the slump in the housing and mortgage markets, which triggered the losses, layoffs and liquidations sweeping the financial industry.

But credit default swaps -- complex derivatives originally designed to protect banks from deadbeat borrowers -- are adding to the turmoil.

....

Recent events suggest Buffett was right. The collapse of Bear Stearns. The fire sale of Merrill Lynch & Co Inc. The meltdown at American International Group Inc . In each case, credit default swaps played a role in the fall of these financial giants.

The latest victim is insurer AIG, which received an emergency $85 billion loan from the U.S. Federal Reserve late on Tuesday to stave off a bankruptcy.

Over the last three quarters, AIG suffered $18 billion of losses tied to guarantees it wrote on mortgage-linked derivatives.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1837154020080918

[ozymandius]

9. Tax-Break Package Passes in the Senate

WASHINGTON -- The Senate voted overwhelmingly for a package of tax breaks for businesses and individuals that totals over $100 billion, setting up an end-of-session showdown with the House over whether to find new revenue or cut spending to offset the cost fully.

The Senate voted 93-2 for the bill, which provides tax breaks for renewable energy, prevents the alternative-minimum tax from hitting millions more people this year and extends expiring tax provisions sought by businesses.

Action now moves to the House, where Democrats strongly favor fully offsetting the cost of the legislation, as required by Congress's pay-as-you-go budget rule. House leaders say they will bring their version of the legislation with the offsets to the floor in coming days.

....

One area of general agreement on the tax issue is the AMT provision -- even without offsets for its $60 billion cost. If Congress doesn't act, about 26 million people will owe more in taxes for this year, up from about four million last year.

For businesses, the Senate-passed bill includes an extension of the research and development tax credit totaling some $19 billion over 10 years. Multinational financial-services firms would benefit from a provision, estimated at nearly $4 billion over 10 years, that permits foreign subsidiaries to defer paying U.S. taxes.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122222382906670197.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[trudyco]

74. Why should foreign subsidiaries defer paying their taxes? -nt

[ozymandius]

12. Banking Expert: Bailout Not Necessary, Industry Can Take Losses

One of the premises of the bailout bill is that the banking industry must have government help to get back on its feet.

A banking industry expert, Bert Ely, who has a stellar track record in predicting crises and calling false alarms says that the banking industry can handle this mess internally and does not need subsidies.

The comments from Bert come in an interview at Institutional Risk Analytics (the entire newsletter is wide-ranging and very much worth reading), First, IRA's recap of Ely's qualifications:

To get some perspective on the evolution of the last remaining large investment banks into commercial banks, we now turn to Bert Ely, one of the leading experts on banking and finance in the Washington policy community. An accountant by training, Ely has specialized in deposit insurance and banking structure issues since 1981. In 1986, he became an early predictor of the S&L crisis and a taxpayer bailout of the FSLIC. In 1991, he was the first person to correctly predict the non crisis in commercial banking. In 1992, he predicted an eventual taxpayer bailout of the Japanese banking system.

Here are the excerpts that relate to whether the banks need government intervention:

The IRA: And if our internal estimates at IRA are correct about the magnitude of the losses facing the industry, then the banks may not have the resources to deal with the problems alone. What then?

Ely: That is of course the trillion dollar question. I have run the numbers looking at the capacity of the industry to pay the tab. Assuming that bank insolvency losses don't get way out of line, which I don't think they will, then the industry can handle it. It's not going to be cheap, but the banks can handle it and clean up their own mess. The losses will feed back through the industry to depositors and borrowers in the form of lower rates on deposits and higher cost of loans....

The IRA: So you oppose the idea of the government putting preferred equity into solvent but troubled banks that cannot raise capital on reasonable terms?

Ely: Yes, it is not necessary, even now. There is absolutely no need for the Treasury to have the authority, as you suggested, to "inject capital into solvent banks that are temporarily unable to raise new capital." If a bank truly is solvent, it can raise additional capital or sell itself, if its present owners are realistic about what their bank is worth. The reason solvent banks have a problem raising capital, or selling themselves to a stronger bank, is that they set their price too high, as did AIG. As an aside, I am glad to see AIG's shareholders getting whacked by the warrants associated with the Fed's taxpayer's loan to AIG. There is absolutely no need for the taxpayer to subsidize banks so they can stay independent, provided no barriers are erected to prevent new entrants into bank or specific banking markets.

more...

...

Note that this analysis, even if correct, does not conclusively disprove the need for a bailout bill. The Paulson proposal, as revised over the weekend, now extends to foreign banks and hedge funds. A hedge fund crisis, which Nouriel Roubiini says is the next shoe to fall, would hit prime brokers like Goldman and Morgan Stanley particularly hard. The Lehman bankruptcy nearly deep-sixed the financial system. Goldman and Morgan are bigger firms. If either were to look wobbly, even after their pending capital infusions, it would roil the markets.

But it sure puts a crimp in the thesis.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/banking-expert-bailout-not-necessary.html

[Ghost Dog]

17. "clearing the detritus from the last speculative bubble"

Ely: Look, all of the fallout we are seeing in the markets today is part of clearing the detritus from the last speculative bubble. The housing bubble has to be allowed to collapse in order to clear the markets. We have a very necessary correction process underway. But this process creates a lot of pain and loss. I don't like that, but we have to clean up the mess and take the pain in order to get the economy back into balance. In collapsing bubbles you have collapsing companies. Japan tried to muddle through and they had a lost decade. I hope we are not going to do that...

The IRA: But that is precisely the point. Why should Washington use taxpayer funds to rescue people who deliberately made bad business decisions?

Ely: This is the question that comes up frequently about Dick Fuld at Lehman and Kerry Killinger at WM. When these guys were contemplating life, did they have any second thoughts, any doubts about these decisions? Did hushed discussions among the top folks in their organizations, with the senior managers and directors, include deliberations such as these or were they too arrogant, too isolated from reality?...

The IRA: How do you see the Paulson plan unfolding? What should the markets expect in the next couple of weeks and months?

Ely: It is likely that Congress will not pass the Paulson bailout legislation this week. However, whenever it is passed, it will be much more complex, and incorporate unwise punitive terms and conditions that will seriously impede the intent of the Paulson plan. Further, I believe the process of pricing the assets purchased under the legislation will be much more complex and contentious than many appreciate at this time, which means that this program will get off to a much slower start than many anticipate, just as the RTC started quite slowly. If the Paulson plan starts slowly, market forces may sweep past the plan. It will be extremely interesting to see how this plan evolves over the next year, particularly given that a new Administration will come to power on January 20.

more...

...

[nolabels]

45. So a few or a lot of people in the banking / finance industries loose their shirts

They did it, they traded in it, they thought it to be all good. Mostly though, they thought that they are not WE. Main street, the commons or what have you will not come to their aid (or if ever) till that elite halo is cleared. The common folks see these banking / finance people as part of the oligarch that has been holding a thumb on them. The industry and the image it created and used has brought this on themselves. We may all suffer but we all grow and learn from it too. It's analogous to punching ourselves in the nose to spite our face. It seems it is the way this mess will get cleared out, and in short it just means many of us will have to live with a bloody nose for while.

The fundamentals and the models of how business runs and probably still works are sound but the way the banking industries were running theirs was not. It's really not all that complex

[Ghost Dog]

60. EU says doesn't need U.S.-style toxic asset plan

Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:07am EDT BRUSSELS, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The European Union does not need a U.S.-style plan to buy up toxic assets with public money to restore confidence in the financial system, the European Commission and the French EU presidency said on Wednesday.

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia told the European Parliament that the crisis in the U.S. banking sector was affecting the real economy in Europe and could depress growth next year and increase inflation.

Both he and Jean-Pierre Jouyet, speaking on behalf of the French presidency, called for a review of executive pay, bonuses and golden handshakes which had created incentives for irresponsible behaviour.

...

"The situation we face here in Europe is less acute and member states do not at this point consider that a U.S.-style plan is needed," Almunia told EU lawmakers.

...

Almunia said the EU was already planning legislation to tighten banks' capital requirements and regulate credit rating agencies, and it might now need to examine other areas.

...

END OF LAISSEZ-FAIRE?

"Profits are being privatised, losses are being nationalised and that is something that has got to stop," Socialist floor leader Martin Schulz declared.

"More than ever, the future requires supervisory powers over markets that never respected anything."

Centre-right German lawmaker Alexander Radwan, criticising EU Internal Market Commissioner Charlie McCreevy for opposing hasty regulation, said the United States should follow Europe's lead in regulating ratings agencies and stock exchanges.

Jouyet, France's secretary of state for European affairs, said the European banking system was solid and did not require bailout measures of the kind envisaged by the U.S. Treasury.

The crisis showed the limits of deregulation and "laissez-faire", he said, calling for a new, modern pattern of financial regulation.

...

European authorities should lead international cooperation to improve transparency and supervision of the financial markets, Jouyet said, referring to French President Nicolas Sarkozy's call for a global summit on moralising capitalism.

"Europe must raise its voice and be heard, otherwise we will simply find ourselves on the receiving end of American rules and regulations," he added.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLO21848120080924?rpc=44&sp=true

[loudsue]

81. The U.S. doesn't need the bailouts, either. They just WANT the bailouts.

It's part of the shock doctrine.

Damn! I sure wish Europe would come invade us.

[radfringe]

13. Republicans to Cheney on $700-billion bailout: We're not buying it

Republicans to Cheney on $700-billion bailout: We're not buying it
LA TIMES blog 9/24/08


Vice President Dick Cheney trudged up to Capitol Hill today to try to convince skeptical Republican congressman that spending $700 billion to bailout Wall Street for its bad gambling habits at taxpayer expense was a good idea.

It was a tough sell.

A large number of House Republicans remained skeptical, even after a two-hour meeting with Cheney at the Cannon House Office Building.

"I don't know anyone who's sold on this rescue plan,'' said Rep. Wally Herger (R-Chico). "There's a lot of concerns. The general feeling is we have to do something, we have to be decisive. But there's concern about a bill that could be loaded up, and there's concern about whether this is the right way to go."

Some blame President Bush for not selling the idea better.

"I think they still need to make the case,'' said Rep. George Radanovich (R-Mariposa) "Is the president going to help us with our constituents and make them realize that it's not about Wall Street, that it's about every American? That case still needs to be made.''

<emphasis mine>
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/09/cheney.html
-----------

What's with all this "selling" and "packaging"? Suddenly the repubs don't like an elephant print Red Wrapping paper, does the white wash bow clash? Since when has the DEREGULATE-REPUBLICAN party been concerned for the people? All of a sudden they are worried about the little people that they have tinkled-on for the past 8 years?

If they are soooooo concerned why are they out there blaming the whole mess on people who lost their homes? Where was their oversight and concern when the dangers of predatory lending practices were brought up?

ARRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!

[ozymandius]

16. The electorate is breathing down their necks over this.

It's a no-win situation for anyone in Congress. And for "selling": that term drips with contempt.

Cheney does not look so healthy. Has he been preemptively embalmed?




Now.. I really gotta go. Have fun!

[Tansy_Gold]

22. You beat me to it, Ozy.

I was going to comment that cheeeney looked positively skeletal in that shot. Not a well man. And certainly not a good one.


Tansy Gold

[MadinMo]

28. And I agree Tansy, Cheney looks terrible.

I almost didn't recognize him!

[DemReadingDU]

29. He's worried the bailout bill won't pass

He was really looking forward to Paulson stealing our tax money for his pocket

[Dr.Phool]

32. He's worried about Halliburton's no bid contract.

The one to build the trailer park behind the Naval Observatory, for Mooselini and her family.

[Changenow]

33. My God he looks old

He has lost some weight.

[Tansy_Gold]

43. Which brings up an old niggling worry of mine

I always wondered why the pukes kept cheeeney around. I mean, the fact that he chose himself for the VP spot always seemed icky in the first place, but since he was unlikely ever to run for P himself, why bother? Oh, sure, for the power behind the throne, but he could have done that from just about any position. He didn't have to be VP. I always wondered why they -- whoever "they" are -- didn't put someone in the VP slot that they could groom to take over from booooosh when the time came.

I'm quite certain they didn't want McCain. Whatever else he is, he's not controllable, and the last thing they want is a loose cannon. In a way, I think McCain is almost as paranoid -- and therefore dangerous -- as Nixon.

I don't think cheeeeeney and his cabal counted on McCain and I think they're doing now whatever they can to scuttle the whole electoral process, in one way or another. It certainly didn't bother them in 2000, so why should they have any more scruples now?

But the fact that he looks so drawn and haggard is a scary reminder of that little voice in the back of my mind: "Watch out for this one. He's truly evil and knows no rules but his own."


Tansy Gold

[TalkingDog]

52. Cheney is sick.

And I don't mean in the -lacking a soul- way either. (although we all know that's true)

I've seen that look on people before. He's wilting and dying. Not in his smirk; that shit-eating grin shows me he's as vile as ever, but his face and body....

I'd be surprised if he lasts another year.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

56. hate for him to suffer

hope is is out of misery ASAP

[ozymandius]

14. My time here is short this morning.

I need to arrive early to work today. I'll return after the close.

Have fun with the Casino.

:hi:

[radfringe]

15. Pool winner today? Only 275.93 to tie, 275.94 to win...

doable number, considering the activity over the past couple of days.

or will Buffet's buy be enough for investors to start singing and dancing to "on the sunny side of wall street"?

[Roland99]

18. Maybe not today. Futures up about 1%.

[Buttercup McToots]

19. Good Mornin` fellow seekers of information

:donut:

I have a bad cold...

[Hugin]

39. Aw, sorry to hear that.

:/

If you feel so inclined, I've heard that Chicken Noodle soup has been clinically shown to have a good effect.

[Buttercup McToots]

64. Yes, I need it...Thank you

I feel awful....

[truthisfreedom]

20. sit on your cash.

[radfringe]

34. last night talked with a friend about the bailout mess/stock market

and in the course of conversation, she asked "if you had the money, what stocks would you invest in?"

well, I don't have the money, I'm one of those paycheck-to-paycheck -- ennywho, I told her that alot would depend on who is in the white house next year. "If it's Obama, then I'd put it into the green sector, alternative energy, recycling, anything related to breaking the oil habit. If it's mccain, then I'd put my money in my mattress or in a coffee can buried in the back yard"

:snicker:

[Festivito]

21. Debt: 09/22/2008 9,785,866,165,910.40 UP 58,856,546,016.06 (A lot!)

(High borrowing two days in a row.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
5,613,059,030,493.40 + 4,172,807,135,417.00
(Public, I think now includes China and Brazil et. al.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

HISTORICAL:
01/19/1993 4,187,806,610,369.16
01/20/1993 4,188,092,107,183.60 BC Inaugural
01/21/1993 4,174,218,594,232.91
01/22/1993 4,175,229,095,992.95

01/19/2001 5,727,776,738,304.64
01/22/2001 5,728,195,796,181.57 GB Inaugural

Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3505571&mesg_id=3505660

[MilesColtrane]

23. I expect we'll see the PPT fairies being stingy with their dust over the next week or so.

The props will not be thrown under the creaking mass of the market in the hope that rapid downward movement will scare Congress into opening the Federal wallet for picking.

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.665 Change -0.026 (-0.03%)

US Government Impasse over Treasury Bailout Boosts Volatility, but Forex Markets Stable

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Government_Impasse_over_Treasury_1222183871047.html

Forex market volatility has unexpectedly gained on the day, with increased uncertainty surrounding US Treasury plans to purchase distressed assets from increasingly fragile credit markets leading to similar uncertainty in the US dollar against major forex counterparts. Yet we see that key forex bid/ask spreads remain stable, and the immensely liquid FX market seems willing to cope with the risk of further fallout from broader financial instability.

News that the Treasury planned to buy illiquid debt instruments initially led to clear improvements in broader liquidity in credit markets, but the US legislative impasse over the proposed bailout threatens to undo recent improvements in financial markets. We see that our DailyFX 1-week volatility index has once again traded near its highest levels since the Asian Financial Crisis and failure of Long Term Capital Management, but it is important to note that this has not translated into lesser liquidity out of major forex pairs.



...more...

US Dollar Gains, But Don't Call It A Comeback

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Gains__But_Don_t_1222207946143.html

The US dollar rose on Tuesday, but it was more of a technical retracement rather than a true rally as the majors failed to register any significant directional moves. Discussions about the US government’s $700 billion bailout plan dominated the headlines, as US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified on the latest credit turmoil amidst harsh criticism from the Senate Panel. There wasn’t really anything new revealed in the testimony, though, as the heads of the Treasury and Fed were, for the most part, just taking the heat and pushing for lawmakers to quickly pass the rescue legislation for the sake of the health of the credit markets, labor markets, housing markets, and the economy at large. However, Mr. Bernanke did say that the Treasury should buy illiquid assets at “hold-to-maturity”' values rather than at “fire-sale” prices, as the shock of the low values would hurt already-jittery investor confidence.

Mr. Bernanke’s concern about stoking fears in the market is understandable as risk aversion clearly remains a problem in the markets given the approximately 1.5 percent declines in the DJIA and S&P 500, the robust demand for Treasuries, and the jump on the CBOE’s VIX Volatility index. Furthermore, we’ve seen that fed fund futures are still pricing in a decent chance of a 25bp rate cut at the end of October, but it’s worth questioning how reliable this measure is at this point. Indeed, we saw futures were pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, which didn’t come to fruition. It appears that the strong demand for Treasuries - which drives down Treasury yields - is impacting fed fund futures as well since they tend to rise and fall together. As a result, the fundamental view of the US dollar is a bit cloudy at this juncture, making technical factors in the forex markets even more important. Through the end of the week, I think we’ll see a bit of a consolidation period for the US dollar above the recent lows, especially as the trade-weighted dollar index has run into support at the 50% fib of 71.31 - 80.38, but additional declines are quite possible.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Pickens hedge funds down about $1 billion this year: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080924/bs_nm/us_pickensbiz

(Reuters) - Texas oil magnate T. Boone Pickens' hedge funds have lost around $1 billion this year, including $270 million of personal losses, The Wall Street Journal said.

One fund focused on energy stocks was down almost 30 percent through August, the paper said adding that a smaller commodity-focused fund is down 84 percent.

"It's my toughest run in 10 years," the paper quoted Pickens as saying.

...more...

[MilesColtrane]

35. Don't worry Boone.

You're 80 years old.

You'll have to make that 3 billion dollars last what, another 2-3 years?

[UpInArms]

27. No Money to Gamble: Unexpectedly, Las Vegas hit by downturn

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080923/bs_nm/us_lasvegas_casinos?_ylt=AtqU72zHXbTWl.xUetbBOI6b.HQA

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) - Sue Garrett, in Las Vegas for a birthday party earlier this month, went to what she considers extraordinary lengths to hold down the cost of her trip.

"We decided to sit through one of those blasted timeshare presentations to get a free hotel room," said Garrett, who lives in Los Angeles. She turned down the timeshare but earned herself and her husband a stay on the Las Vegas Strip for her trouble.

Similar stories are heard all over Las Vegas these days, where resorts are discounting and even giving away room nights just to attract enough people to keep their roulette wheels and slot machines spinning.

Vegas barreled through previous U.S. economic recessions with no problem, but the current slowdown -- marked by home foreclosures and then high gasoline prices -- has had a much bigger impact on the gambling mecca than economists expected.

And while free rooms and room discounts have kept hotels relatively full -- occupancy is down just 1 percent in the year to July -- gambling revenue is down 6.5 percent.

"People still have Las Vegas as their destination of choice, but their budget is less," said Jan Jones, senior vice president at Harrah's Entertainment, operator of nearly one-third of the Strip, from Bally's to Caesars Palace.

Harrah's and MGM, which operates 10 properties on the Strip including Bellagio and Circus Circus, have each cut about 1,500 Las Vegas jobs over the past year.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

30. My sister works at Harrah's and has a lot of seniority.

Her work week has been cut from 5-3 days, now she's on the extra board getting 2-3 days per week. And her husband is a mortgage broker for Countrywide, and hanging on by the skin of his teeth.

She says the casinos are forcing cocktail waitress's to keep a closer eye on the slots players, to make sure they're pumping money into the machines, instead of an occasional coin when a cocktail waitress is around. All monitored through the "eye-in-the-sky".

[MilesColtrane]

36. BushCo™ Bail Out Imperative

(I posted this in another thread and thought it would be appropriate here.)

[TalkingDog]

53. First, but not last Lampoon I ever bought....n/t

[Hugin]

38. Yay! A radfringe 'toon!

Nice work! :thumbsup:

[radfringe]

42. thanks - they are being featured on World News Trust

http://www.worldnewstrust.com/ -- give them a visit, check it out, good articles, videos and more

[dweller]

40. since AIG has now been removed from the DOW

and i have now nothing to occupy my curious mind observing their numbers, i guess i'll take a little time to study this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4055207
:scared:

good luck to those in the pool for today, i'm betting on tomorrow :D
dp

[Hugin]

41. Good luck tomorrow.

Thanks, it'll take me awhile to read this.

[antigop]

44. Is someone blackmailing the economy?

OK, it's Ben Stein, but I think there are questions that need to be asked...

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/23/133349/153/556/607628

Ben Stein, a man whose character and politics I find to be despicable, has a column today that I noticed on Yahoo Finance. A good buddy of mine, who stays closely abreast of these kinds of financial shenanigans, told me the other day that Ben Stein, in spite of his character flaws, had some really astute observations on this whole mess. So out of curiosity today, I clicked on the link.

And I have to admit, I am astounded by what he said. And even more by what he didn't say. The Big Question he leaves unanswered. It's seriously mind-blowing.

* Inky99's diary :: ::
*

Here is the article:

Everything You Wanted to Know About the Credit Crisis But Were Afraid to Ask

And here is the meat of his article, which leads to the huge gaping hole which he leaves unfilled:

The crisis occurred (to greatly oversimplify) because the financial system allowed entities to place bets on whether or not those mortgages would ever be paid. You didn't have to own a mortgage to make the bets. These bets, called Credit Default Swaps, are complex. But in a nutshell, they allow someone to profit immensely - staggeringly - if large numbers of subprime mortgages are not paid off and go into default.

The profit can be wildly out of proportion to the real amount of defaults, because speculators can push down the price of instruments tied to the subprime mortgages far beyond what the real rates of loss have been. As I said, the profits here can be beyond imagining. (In fact, they can be so large that one might well wonder if the whole subprime fiasco was not set up just to allow speculators to profit wildly on its collapse...)

These Credit Default Swaps have been written (as insurance is written) as private contracts. There is nil government regulation of them. Who writes these policies? Banks. Investment banks. Insurance companies. They now owe the buyers of these Credit Default Swaps on junk mortgage debt trillions of dollars. It is this liability that is the bottomless pit of liability for the financial institutions of America.

Did you see that bolded section?

In fact, they can be so large that one might well wonder if the whole subprime fiasco was not set up just to allow speculators to profit wildly on its collapse...

[antigop]

47. fwiw, link to Ben Stein's article

http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/yourlife/109609

[antigop]

46. Henry M. Paulson's Public Financial Disclosure Report for Calendar Year 2006

from opensecrets.org

http://pfds.opensecrets.org/N99999962_2006.pdf

[Roland99]

48. 10:09am - Morning glory has faded

Dow 10,836.48 -17.69
Nasdaq 2,157.69 +4.36
S&P 500 1,186.60 -1.62
10-year 3.76% -0.08
Oil $108.90 $2.29
Gold $900.00 $8.80

[Hugin]

50. ~10:20 ET: After a lukewarm rise, now a lukewarm fall...

Dow 10,812.03 -42.14 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,153.81 +0.48 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,183.72 -4.50 (-0.38%)

10y bond 3.76% -0.03 (-0.79%)

[antigop]

51. Bank of New York's $22.5 billion headache

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/23/news/companies/parloff_bank_new_york.fortune/index.htm

The Russian government is suing the Bank of New York for smuggling cash out of the country. Can a U.S. bank get a fair trial in Moscow?

Inside a rundown government building on Novaya Basmannaya Street in Moscow, a bizarre lawsuit is playing out involving $7.5 billion in illicit money transfers and America's ninth-largest bank.

The Russian government is suing the Bank of New York Mellon (BK, Fortune 500) under the U.S. civil RICO statute - the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act - seeking $22.5 billion.

And what a cast of characters. Russia is represented by a Miami plaintiffs lawyer who specializes in airplane crash cases, whose experts include Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz. The bank's defense is being led by Jonathan Schiller, a founding partner of super-lawyer David Boies's law firm, Boies Schiller & Flexner, and he has assembled his own phalanx of experts, led by former U.S. Attorney General Richard Thornburgh.

In the suit the Russian Federal Customs Service seeks to recover taxes it says it should have collected on the $7.5 billion that one of the Bank of New York's employees helped smuggle out of the country about a decade ago. The bank maintains that the case has no merit.

[muleboy303]

55. the 'war on tight credit' = 'the war on terror' ?

it worked before, and time is running out on the bush administration, so why
not try it again ? only this time, what Paulson is asking Congress for, in terms
of authority and money, would be the equivalent of the President demanding
that Congress give him the power and $700billion to go to WAR. without
telling them which country, or countries, he intends to attack. how many troops,
planes, ships, etc. will be used. and casually adding that any attempt to require
oversight, either congressional or judicial, would be a "dealbreaker".

[radfringe]

57. PIEHOLE EFFECT PIEHOLE EFFECT... bwaaaahaaahaaaa

Bush may talk bailout on prime time
The President might speak to the public about the proposed $700 billion bailout on TV as early as tonight to urge skeptical senators.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/24/news/economy/bush_speech/?postversion=2008092410
September 24, 2008: 10:33 AM ET

--snip---

"The administration also wants to see whether the markets are stable Wednesday, with the official noting that anything the White House says on the crisis "can truly impact the markets" for better or worse - so the White House wants to be careful in deciding whether the president should deliver such a high-profile speech"

:rofl: PIEHOLE EFFECT... :rofl: White House aware of PIEHOLE effect

[dweller]

61. wonderful

making tomorrow's date in the pool look even better :D

dp

[nolabels]

63. The 19% PIEHOLE that it be

Bush Approval Falls to 19%
A new American Research Group poll found that just 19% of Americans approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president and 76% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 17% approve and 78% disapprove.

Bush's overall approval rating of 19% is tied for Bush's lowest in ARG monthly polling since Bush took office.


September 22, 2008
(snip)
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/22/bush_approval_falls_to_19.html

[54anickel]

76. Gotta get out there and "sell" the idea, damn it!!! Come on, this isn't about

urging skeptical senators. It's about urging Murikan Fodder Units that it's OK and necessary. Senators ain't skeptical about the bailout, their afraid to go against their constituents who so far haven't been willing to bite.

[Demeter]

93. Bush's Blather Will KILL the Bailout For Sure!

The only way they could pass this turkey idea would be to declare it a memorial to somebody--anybody--who wasn't in the GOP! And not Nancy or Harry, Either!

[antigop]

58. BNY Mellon to take big charge for bailing out funds with Lehman holdings

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080924/REG/809249991/1036

Bank of New York Mellon on Wednesday said it will take a $425 million third-quarter charge to bail out at least 10 funds affected by Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, in a bid to help investors avoid losing money.

The company said it was providing support to four money market mutual funds operated by its Dreyfus unit, five commingled funds used mainly to hold cash overnight, and an institutional fund used to reinvest cash collateral within the bank’s securities lending business.

[Roland99]

59. 11:18:am - Mexed Missages

Dow 10,821.75 -32.42
Nasdaq 2,160.70 +7.37
S&P 500 1,186.41 -1.81
10-year 3.77% -0.07
Oil $109.00 $2.39
Gold $900.40 $9.20

[Ghost Dog]

62. France's EDF agrees $23 bln bid for British Energy

PARIS/LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - French utility EDF (EDF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) launched a 12.5 billion pound ($23.14 billion) agreed offer for British Energy (BGY.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), modifying its bid to control Britain's nuclear power industry after months of wrangling.

EDF, the world's biggest producer of nuclear energy, said on Wednesday it was offering 774 pence per British Energy share, or an alternative of 700 pence in cash plus one nuclear power note, a financial instrument linked to BE's future performance.

EDF, which predicted the deal would lead to cost savings of 200 million euros ($293 million) and lift group earnings in 2009, said it had received assurances from British Energy investors it would get at least 45.16 percent of the utility. "Both the government and our largest shareholder, Invesco Perpetual, have provided commitments to accept the offer," British Energy Chief Executive Bill Coley told reporters.

The new offer is worth just 9 pence a share more than one rejected as too low by shareholders Invesco and M&G, which own around 22 percent of the company. The British government, which owns 35 percent, had accepted the earlier proposal. Reluctant shareholders may have been won around by the option to receive a nuclear power note which means they stand to profit if, as they suspect, BE's earnings are boosted in the longterm by energy prices remaining stubbornly high.

...

British Energy shares rose as much as 7.4 percent to 777.50 pence and were up 6.15 percent at 768.50 pence at 1426 GMT. EDF was 4.2 percent higher at 52.25 euros. "It is positive for EDF and takes away the risk that they will pay off the wall, and the price is reasonable," a London-based analyst said. "There is clearly value in nuclear and building nuclear plants but it is quite long term."

...

EDF Chairman Pierre Gadonneix said the deal paved the way for investment in the UK, where its is already the fifth largest electricity supplier to consumers. He also told reporters in Paris the company still had the capacity to do deals globally.

At the same time British Gas-owner Centrica (CNA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said it was in talks with EDF to buy a 25 percent stake in British Energy at the same price per share as EDF, alleviating concerns about Britain's nuclear industry falling into foreign hands. It would also mean less volatile electricity prices, "which has to be good for our customers", Centrica Chief Executive Sam Laidlaw told Reuters. For a story, click on Centrica buys in gas and electricity because it does not produce enough to meet growing demand from its 16 million customers but is seeking to increase in house production, thereby reducing its exposure to wholesale price volatility.

...

"Nuclear is clean, secure and affordable; its expansion is crucial for Britain's long-term energy security, as we reduce our oil dependence and move towards a low carbon future," Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in a statement. Brown's administration has made building a new generation of nuclear power stations a central plank of its plans to tackle climate change and reduce Britain's reliance on imported oil and gas as energy demand increases and natural resources diminish.

For EDF, the takeover allows it to benefit from the growing British nuclear market where it plans to build four European Pressurised Reactors (EPR), kickstarting a new wave of nuclear building in the country.

Britain's nuclear power plants provide 19 percent of the country's electricity. However, all but one are due to close within 15 years.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLO70251620080924?rpc=44&sp=true

[Roland99]

65. LIBOR: 3.43

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=US0001M%3AIND

[DemReadingDU]

69. FEAR

:scared:

[dweller]

66. Bennie and Paulie in da House ....

Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke return to Capitol Hill today to make the case for their $700 billion bailout.

Bernanke warned of "grave threats" to the economy in prepared testimony before the Joint Economic Committee this morning; he and Paulson are scheduled to appear together before the House Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. ET. (The House hearing should make yesterday's contentious Senate hearing look like a fancy tea party.)

Taxpayers and congressman alike are right to be outraged if the government really is going to buy distressed debt via reverse auctions -- and at prices above their current "fire sale level," as Bernanke suggested yesterday.

"If that's all you say, you're going to get the garbage of the garbage" when it comes time for the auction, says Lawrence White, economics professor at NYU's Stern School. "Sellers who know more about the quality of what they're trying to sell are going to do in the buyer."

In technical terms, that's known as "adverse selection."

In layman's terms, it's called "the taxpayer getting hosed."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/70002/Taxpayers-on-the-Hook-How-to-Make-a-Bad-Bailout-Better?tickers=GS,BRK-A,BRK-B,XLF,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY

dp

[Roland99]

67. Anyonehave the volume numbers? My hunch is it's a very light day so far.

[Hugin]

68. Extremely light.

Another odd development is that I had seen a headline stating that Buffett was backing Paulson. I *was* going to click
on it, but, in the time it took for me to check the volumes and go back to the top page it had either disappeared or
edited.

I seriously doubt Buffett's buying of Goldman stock is any indication he backs the bailout.

[Dr.Phool]

70. They decided to let the monkey out of his cage tonight after all.

updated 6 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - President Bush will address Americans directly about the financial crisis tonight at 9 p.m. ET, and his spokeswoman said Wednesday the nation risks "calamity" without bold action.

A meltdown among several financial institutions and intense negotiations with Congress over a rescue package the administration has requested led the president to return to Washington early Wednesday from a three-day stay in New York. He canceled a planned trip to Florida, where he had been scheduled to raise campaign cash for Republican candidates later in the day.

“This is a huge moment for America and if we don’t take decisive and bold action, we could be facing financial calamity,” White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters traveling on Bush’s plane.

(snip)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26869586/

________________________________________________

No Dana, the calamity will be over (hopefully) in January.

I'll take tomorrow in the pool.

[Theres-a]

92. "Calamity Jane" Perino

Rides again.

[Roland99]

71. Propagandist to open piehole at 9pm EDT "US faces financial calamity"

Now, we all know that an economic crisis is at hand but is having Bush attempt to panic the nation into supportng the biggest Treasury heist in history going to do any good?

Will people snap out of CONSUME mode? Will they call their Congress critter to say "Hey! Pass that blank check!"? Or will life go on blindly as before?

[radfringe]

72. WHOAAAA! LOOK OUT LOOK OUT!!!

FMD's are coming!!!! (Finances of Massive Depression)

[TalkingDog]

84. With apologies to Jimi...... today's theme song

Massive depression touching my soul
I know what I want, but I just don't know
How to, go about gettin it
Feeling sweet feeling,
Drops from my fingers, fingers
Massive depression is catchin my soul

Woman so weary, the sweet cause in vain
You make love, you break love
Its all the same
When its, when its over, mama
Music, sweet music
I wish I could caress, caress, caress
Massive depression is a frustrating mess

Well, I think Ill go turn myself off,
And go on down
All the way down
Really ain't no use in me hanging around
In your kinda scene

Music, sweet music
I wish I could caress and kiss
Massive depression is a frustrating mess

[antigop]

73. Krugman's cynical humor

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/princeton-saves-the-world/

I’ve been pointing out that the dictatorial powers Paulson has sought would accrue to the next Treasury secretary, who might well be Phil Gramm. I’ve been trying to come up with a liberal-leaning name who might seem equally horrifying to Republicans, and the only one I’ve come up with is … me.

[Dr.Phool]

75. Bailie Mae? Hanky Panky?

[Dr.Phool]

77. McCain trying to weasel out of debate on Friday to concentrate on crisis.

He would have concentrated already, but he couldn't reach Phil Gramm on the golf course.

[Pale Blue Dot]

79. This could mean that Washington Mutual is going to fail on Friday.

It would not look good for McCain to have a major bank failure right before the debate begins.

I'm also not going to discount a Shock Doctrine scenario. The Republicans all seem to be on message today that the economy is really, really, really bad (even Palin said today that there may be a Depression). When the Republicans are all on message about something, it's a reason for concern, IMHO.

[Dr.Phool]

91. According to chatter on CNBC, Reid and Dems are working a deal.

I think we're about to get royally screwed. You don't negotiate with your rapist.

[muleboy303]

82. NOW McCain decides it's time to go show up and do his job ?

having been absent all year ?

another 'Palin' move. a temporary bump in the polls for looking 'decisive'
and then down, down, down, again.

[truthisfreedom]

78. Could someone explain this to me?

The real problem is the enormous level of defaulting debt. There is $596 trillion in derivatives debt, over $2.5 trillion in credit card debt, and $58 trillion in credit default swaps, which are not regulated.

quote from:

http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/hotline.php

What the hell is "derivatives debt"? I know what credit default swaps are from reading the thread today. I have credit cards, so I know what they are. But WTF is $596 Trillion doing in front of a phrase I don't understand?

[Imperialism Inc.]

80. It is a superset of credit default swap. In other words a

credit default swap is a type of credit derivative. CDOs is probably the main part of what that number represents. It was another gambling technique based on mortgages. Essentially different investors buy a different slice of a package of mortgages (called tranches). Like you could buy the senior tranches and be guaranteed the first money to come out of the mortgages. If the mortgages default you get paid first and the other tranches , which were rated as more risky, get what is left over or might not get paid at all.

[nolabels]

85. LIke WOW then, i never dreamed we would be participating in gambling sceme.......

when me and wife signed our mortgage papers.

Like we did get married quickly in Nevada but never thought that it was such an all encompassing act :wtf:

[Mojorabbit]

83. And that is why

I think this bailout will fail. We will have a depression.

[PA Democrat]

87. And it is all unregulated thanks to the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000

Phil Gramm sponsored the bill.

[htuttle]

88. I think of them as sports bettting on financial events

You can bet on a lot of weird shit if you know the right bookie. All that derivatives debt represents bad sports bets placed with bookies who wear Brookes Brother's suits.

[fedsron2us]

95. Traders, Guns and Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives

by Satyajit Das will give you an idea how these complicated bets on the financial markets were made up and how initial valuations of assets were used to lever up massive speculation. Many were so abtruse it is little wonder no one can put a true price on them.

I spent years studying betting systems in the sporting world and the only certain rule I established was that the more complex the theory the less likely the scheme was to show a profit. Knowing this fact it is little surprise that most of these financial instruments turned out to be clunking failures.

The unholy union of complex derivatives with huge leverage blessed by a non existent regulatory regime gave birth to one of the biggest financial bubbles in history which has encouraged rampant fraud, malinvestment, mania and finally collapse. All that remains is to bring out the dead.

[TalkingDog]

86. Seriously..... down 3 and a half points....

5 minutes ago they were down 90

too obvious.

[formercia]

89. Goldman's shares get suspicious boost pre-Buffett

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080924/business_us_goldmansachs_sharesbiz.html

Reuters

Wednesday September 24, 3:36 pm ET

By Kristina Cooke

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An unusual surge in Goldman Sachs' share price in the last 10 minutes of trading on Tuesday raised eyebrows on Wall Street, as it came two hours before news of Warren Buffett's big investment in the bank.

Goldman Sachs (GS - News) shares rose more than $5 heading into the close of trading even as the rest of the market tumbled, leaving traders suspicious that inside information was used to make a profit.

"Obviously someone knew the Buffett news that was coming out. I noticed it yesterday and I was telling my colleagues something is going on with Goldman," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of US Equity Trading at Canaccord Adams in New York.

--snip--

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BRK-A&t=1d&c=BRK-B+GS

[Roland99]

90. I think the settling is over....

Dow 10,825.89 -28.28
Nasdaq 2,155.68 +2.35
S&P 500 1,185.87 -2.35
10-year 3.77% -0.07
Oil $105.73 -$0.88
Gold $895.00 $3.80


Looked like a wild ride the last half hour. Down, what, 80-90 then back to almost flat and then finishing down nearly 30. With shorts being banned for a while, no shorts to screw over at the end of the day. Someone forget to disable an automated task??

[Demeter]

96. So, this is what a REAL Market Looks Like

with all the wheeler dealers, computer trading, short-sellers and the like out of the picture....

nice and peaceful! A person could actually invest in something like that!

[AnneD]

94. Afternoon Marketeers.....

:toast: I have been pulled in all different directions. Yesterday, I had CPA/IRS business-all dressed up for the meeting and no KY jelly in sight-ouch. This morning the net was down until late. I decided to get my ceu's done so I can retain my RN license. I was at it all day but I finished it. My school is still closed because we don't have electricity yet so the hurricane has been a bit of a blessing for me-allowing me to catch up with everything.

I will post the pool tomorrow, either from the clubhouse or Chick fil-A. In my travelings, you wouldn't believe the earful I am hearing about the purposed bail out. Seems like every Joe Six Pack has an opinion about it and it isn't good and they are very vocal. They all seem to have heard about Paulson's desire to preserve the executive compensation package to there will be a higher participation in the program. Even the guy on the street knows it is not adding up.

I look forward to catching up on things. I just wanted to let you know that we were still around, just very busy with the day to day stuff.

[Dr.Phool]

97. We all thought you just decided to spend the day in bed.

:hi:

Big Lots had a deal on a fax today, and I'm gonna burn it out tonight faxing Washington.


NO BAILOUT! NO WAY! NO HOW!

[dweller]

98. MarketWatch: China asks local lenders not to lend to U.S.

banks report
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Chinese regulators have asked domestic banks to stop lending to U.S. financial institutions in the interbank money markets to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported Thursday. The China Banking Regulatory Commission's ban on interbank lending of all currencies applied to U.S. banks, but not to lenders from other countries, the report added, citing a source.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-asks-local-lenders-not/story.aspx?guid=%7B389CCD2E%2D9D08%2D4A8B%2DA512%2DF1B3E0B0BE19%7D&dist=hplatest


this can't be good...
dp

[Dr.Phool]

99. It's happened.

The credit card has been cut up.

[fedsron2us]

100. Withdrawals hit Bank of East Asia

The Bank of East Asia has denied rumours that it is in financial trouble, after thousands of customers queued to withdraw their savings.

After weeks of global market turmoil, lines of people quickly formed outside the bank's branches in Hong Kong.

In a statement, the bank said the rumours were malicious and untruthful, and they had informed the police.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7633468.stm

Maybe the depositors will want to put all their money in to US banks if they are bailed out ?

The Chinese government are obviously not going to fall for that game.

One wonders what those US Treasury auctions are going to be like next year.