STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 25

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 25, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 116
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2803 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2528 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2819
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 24, 2008

Dow... 10,825.17 -29.00 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq... 2,155.68 +2.35 (+0.11%)
S&P 500... 1,185.87 -2.35 (-0.20%)
Gold future... 895.00 +3.80 (+0.43%)
30-Year Bond 4.38% -0.06 (-1.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.77% -0.07 (-1.82%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[truthisfreedom]

1. As-is Palin, McCain, and Bush.

We're buying a pile of bad memories. IF we spend it.

[ozymandius]

3. I wish lemon laws applied to presidents.

We would have been rid of this clunker a long time ago.

[Demeter]

18. Congress Refused to Exercise That Consumer Protection Clause

called Impeachment.

[Hugin]

53. Just dropped by to see how the Bailout-to-nowhere is going...

I had a thought last night.

Nothing... and I mean NOTHING should be passed until the limits on shorts expire on the 2nd of October.

I think the Republicans are counting on the 'surge' that day as 'proof' of an acceptance of the 'bail-out' by
Wall Street. (Even though we here in the SMW know that it's nothing of the sort.)

WATCH OUT!

IT'S A TRAP!

The temporary rise will happen anyway... and it will signify nothing except that the Republicans will try to
claim the sky is blue again and McChicken/Failin had something to do with it.

Oh, and somebody inform Reid my beef with the whole Bailout Ransom Note Bill isn't with the amount or sticking it
to the CEOs. It centers on the presumption of no accountability. Those decisions are the sole responsibility of
Congress... If they cede their responsibility this time. :grr:

Okay... That's about it for me today. I'll be here on the sidelines waiting for the inevitable CAVE shoe to drop.
It always does. Only hoping it doesn't until a few days after 2-October.

[Demeter]

90. We Could Get Lucky

Event might conspire to make caving in an impossibility, or totally unnecessary and toxic. We're almost there already.

McCain has lost--this ploy was the GOP's best hope to keep the reins of power out of Democratic hands.

In honor of their valiant efforts to screw the nation over, I'd like to propose the theme from Mission Impossible as our music to lose money by.

[Dr.Phool]

104. I'm thinking more of the closing scenes of Dr. Strangelove.

"Is that all there is?"

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

Favoring the Downside
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

Today, Germany’s IFO Institute announced that its business climate index for September fell to 92.9 (from 94.8), which was below expectations. With that, key measures of business confidence in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan and the United States are all below where they were three years ago. Not exactly a picture of health for the global economy.

.....

Respondents polled in Bloomberg’s latest monthly survey of more than 50 economists see a roughly 50-50 chance of a U.S. recession during the next 12 months, down from a peak of 70% in April. American Research Group, meanwhile, reports that more than two-thirds of Americans believe that the economy is already in recession (in fact, more than half have answered this way each month since March). Given the track record of the so-called experts, the smart money is betting on the man in the street.

.....

If the “TED Spread” was a stock chart, more than a few technical analysts might consider jumping aboard the recent breakout in the hopes of further gains. With that in mind, some might argue this gauge of financial system stress is signaling that there is much worse to come despite the recent Mother-of-All-Bailouts-inspired turnaround in equity and other markets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Dr.Phool]

29. Those 50 economists are right on top of things, aren't they?

A 50-50 chance of recession in the next 12 months?

[ozymandius]

38. I'm in the wrong bidness. These economists get paid to say this.

The WrapUp has suffered from a lack of quality authors lately. I am considering the idea of just not posting the thing at all - or perhaps intermittently.

That the WrapUp has been 'de rigeur' for many years has propelled me to keep adding it to the thread. Just thinking out loud at this point.

[Demeter]

44. Rob Kirby's Latest Was VERY Significant

Perhaps sorting the dross from the gold and only posting when it is worthy?

[ozymandius]

46. Kirby, Dorsch, Goldberg:

They're all excellent writers. I'm quite happy to post their views even when I disagree with them.

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

08:30 Durable Orders Aug
Briefing.com -1.5%
Consensus -1.3%
Prior 1.3%

08:30 Initial Claims 09/20
Briefing.com 445K
Consensus 450K
Prior NA

10:00 New Home Sales Aug
Briefing.com 515K
Consensus 518K
Prior 515K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

34. Initial Claims @ 462,000 - Durable Goods fall 3.5%

01. U.S. Aug. durable-goods orders down 4.5% vs fall 2.0% expect
8:31 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

02. U.S. Aug. durable-goods orders ex-defense fall 5.0%
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

03. U.S Aug durable shipments fall 3.5%, biggest since April '01
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

04. U.S. Aug. durable goods orders ex-transportation fall 3.0
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

05. U.S. Aug. durable-goods orders biggest drop since Jan.
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

06. U.S. Aug. durable-goods orders down 4.5% vs fall 2.0% expect
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

07. U.S. 4-wk. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.48 million
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

08. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 63,000 to 3.54 million
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

09. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 16,000 to 462,500
8:30 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

[UpInArms]

35. U.S. Aug. core durable goods down 7.5%, shipments down 2.8%

04. U.S. Aug. core durable goods down 7.5%, shipments down 2.8%
8:33 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

05. U.S. Aug. durable goods orders ex-transportation fall 3.0%
8:32 AM ET, Sep 25, 2008

[Roland99]

49. Weekly initial claims highest in seven years

Hurricanes lead to spike in U.S. jobless claims
Weekly initial claims highest in seven years
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-weekly-jobless-claims-jump/story.aspx?guid=%7B96E3E608%2DD489%2D4D15%2DA3DE%2D2AE63B0EAC9C%7D

[ozymandius]

58. additional info

Jobless claims pushed to 7-year high
....

Even excluding the effects of the hurricanes, jobless claims remain at elevated levels. Weekly claims have now topped 400,000 for ten straight weeks, a level economists consider a sign of recession. A year ago, claims stood at 309,000.

The number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits last week was 3.54 million, up 63,000 from the previous week and nearly a five-year high. The four-week average of continuing claims was 3.49 million.

[Roland99]

67. New-home sales fall to weakest level in 17 years

New-home sales fall to weakest level in 17 years
Sales slump 11.5% to 460,000 pace for August
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/economic-report-us-aug-new/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA176456%2DCE33%2D40EC%2D9797%2DFB71820768F4%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new homes fell to a 17-year low in August, government data showed, raising further concern about conditions in the housing industry.

New-home sales fell 11.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000, marking a new low in this economic cycle, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Sales were much weaker than the 505,000 annualized pace that economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for.

...

The median sales price in August was $221,900, down 6.2% compared with a year earlier. This price can be affected by the mix of homes sold from region to region and among different price points.

Also,

RATE FOR 30-YEAR MORTGAGES JUMPS TO 6.09% FROM 5.78% LAST WEEK

[tama]

74. 11,5 drop vs. expected 1,0 drop !!!

BUY! BUY! BUY!

[ozymandius]

83. It's really weird to see what passes for "fundamentally sound" anymore.

But hey - whatta I know? I just see numbers and read anecdotal evidence that correlate today's conditions with years past when things were really fucking awful.

[tama]

69. And the Wall Street rejoices

when the real economy sinks - or rather, drops off the cliff. What more proof needed of the near total disconnect between real economy and the financial potemkin (leech-)economy?

[ozymandius]

5. Oil falls in Asia on supply delays, bailout plan

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell to near $104 a barrel Thursday in Asia as investors weighed supply delays in the Gulf of Mexico against concerns that the U.S. credit crisis may slow global economic growth and hurt crude demand.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery was down $1.55 to $104.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell overnight 88 cents to settle at $105.73.

Traders are concerned about the turmoil in the U.S. financial system will impact economic growth and crude demand from the world's biggest economy.

....

Oil investors are also eyeing the impact the bailout plan may have on the value of the dollar. Investors often buy crude futures as a hedge against a weakening dollar and inflation. The 15-nation euro was steady Thursday at $1.4706. The dollar was little changed at 105.81 yen.

....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 1.03 cents to $3.003 a gallon, while gasoline prices rose 1.05 cents to $2.605 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery dropped 2.7 cents to $7.652 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

32. U.S. gasoline inventories lowest since 1967: EIA

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE48N6OO20080924?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline inventories have dropped to their lowest level since 1967 after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike shut Gulf Coast oil refineries, causing some supply shortages at service stations, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

Five oil refineries with a total capacity of 1.231 million barrels a day remained shut since Ike idled 14 plants, or a quarter of the nation's refined fuel production, nearly two weeks ago, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The closed refineries have caused a drawdown in existing fuel inventories to help meet demand.

U.S. gasoline stocks fell 5.9 million barrels last week to just under 179 million barrels, down almost 19 million barrels from a year ago, according to the EIA.

There were long lines at service stations in some southern cities to get fuel, and some retail outlets, including those in Atlanta and Memphis, have run out of supplies.

Since Gustav struck at the beginning of the month, 52 million barrels of refining have been cut on the Gulf Coast, according to Reuters data.

"Continuing reports of spot shortages of gasoline at some retail outlets where supplies have been most disrupted can be expected over the next several weeks," the EIA said in its weekly review of the oil market.

...more...

[AnneD]

87. 29 offshore oil platforms suffered extensive damage

Nearly 30 oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico that suffered extensive damage from Hurricane Ike will take three to six months to repair, according to the federal agency that regulates energy activity in the basin.
The Interior Department's Minerals Management Service said Wednesday that in addition to those 29 platforms, another 33 platforms sustained moderate damage and will take one to three months to fix. The agency said 1,450 of the Gulf's 3,800 platforms, ranging from small producers close to shore to deep-water facilities, were exposed to hurricane winds faster than 74 mph.
Mad Dog's derrick
So far, the only significant damage reported at any of the Gulf's major producing deep-water platforms was the loss of a drilling rig derrick aboard BP's Mad Dog about 190 miles south of New Orleans.
The Minerals Management Service defined extensive damage as underwater structural problems or damage to pipelines that carry oil and gas to shore. Moderate damage, the agency said, could include problems with production equipment on platform decks or damage to pipes that connect platforms to seabed production equipment.

more....

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/6021488.html

[Dr.Phool]

105. Mineral Management Service defined extensive damage as,

A broken crack pipe.

A leaky condom.

A bounced check.

[wordpix]

138. and I'm sure the oil corps will use this as an excuse to continue to not pay US for leasing public

lands.

[AnneD]

96. Blaze at Pasadena plant extinguished

A fire that erupted late Tuesday at a Kinder Morgan terminal in Pasadena has been extinguished, about 11 hours after it started, plant officials said today.
Dozens of units from the Pasadena and Houston fire departments battled the blaze late Tuesday and one worker was injured and taken to Memorial Hermann Hospital, according to a company statement.
The fire was contained quickly, company officials said, and fire crews allowed it to burn itself out this morning.
The fire broke out about 10:30 p.m. Tuesday in a manifold, where pipelines interconnect at the facility on North Witter near Texas 225, Kinder Morgan officials said.

more

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/metro/6019228.html

This is a major terminal and the manifold in question supplied refined gas to several companies. This may be a very big deal-depends on how badly the damage,

www.click2houston.com/news/17544142/detail.html?subid=10100242

[ozymandius]

6. Bank run prompts $500M infusion in Hong Kong

HONG KONG - Hong Kong injected nearly $500 million into the financial system Thursday to shore up liquidity a day after the Bank of East Asia was hit with what appears to be region's first major bank run since the global financial crisis erupted last year.

....

In what appeared to be a sizable bank run, thousands of customers converged on BEA offices across Hong Kong on Wednesday to demand their deposits amid unconfirmed rumors about the bank's stability. Thursday saw fears spread to Singapore, where the bank reported higher numbers of customers withdrawing money.

The panic underscored a growing distrust of financial institutions in Asia since the turmoil on Wall Street began.

Confidence eroded further in recent weeks as thousands in Hong Kong and Singapore canceled policies with troubled insurer American International Group, and investors in Lehman Brothers products lobbied the government to help prevent losses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080925/ap_on_bi_ge/as_hong_kong_bank_panic

[ozymandius]

7. Mortgage collapse inquiry widened

Federal investigators have expanded their investigation into the collapse of the subprime mortgage market to include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG - four companies at the heart of the market turmoil.

Enforcement officials are under growing pressure to hold companies and individuals responsible for the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

....

Investigators are focusing on whether fraud or other criminal activity helped cause financial strains at the companies. The Federal Bureau of Investigation declined to comment.

....

Robert Mueller, director of the FBI, told the Senate judiciary committee last week that the agency was conducting two dozen investigations into larger companies that "may have engaged in misstatements in the course of what transpired during this financial crisis".

At the end of June, the FBI had 19 "large corporations" under investigation.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d58d9886-8a9b-11dd-a76a-0000779fd18c.html

[ozymandius]

8. FDIC May Need $150 Billion Bailout as Local Bank Failures Mount

....

FDIC's Secret List

The FDIC knows which banks are at risk; it has a watch list with 117 institutions. The agency won't disclose their names because doing so could cause depositors to panic and pull out all of their funds.

It won't take many more failures before the FDIC itself runs out of money. The agency had $45.2 billion in its coffers as of June 30, far short of the $200 billion Whalen says it will need to pay claims by the end of next year. The U.S. Treasury will almost certainly come to the rescue.

Regardless of who wins control of the White House and Congress in November, no politician is likely to vote in favor of leaving federally insured depositors out in the cold.

....

One reason the rolling financial crisis is hitting regional banks later than it walloped Wall Street is because the very system that is meant to protect depositors -- federal insurance -- has also served to prop up weak lenders. So has the ready supply of credit extended to banks by another government- chartered group, the Federal Home Loan Banks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=amZxIbcjZISU&refer=us

[wordpix]

139. and it won't take long before everyone realizes the $10 trillion debt means

there IS no money for FDIC insurance or anything else to prop up the economy.

[ozymandius]

9. Auto company loans pass House

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. House on Wednesday approved $25 billion in loans for the troubled U.S. auto industry, as Michigan lawmakers hailed the plan as key toward saving thousands of jobs in the state and vowed to press for an additional $25 billion next year to boost the industry's retooling.

The loan deal dwarfs the $1.2-billion bailout of Chrysler Corp. in 1979, and reflects the deep economic crisis threatening the survival of Detroit automakers and the companies that rely on them. Automakers had made the loans their top priority over the past several weeks, sending all three chief executives to blitz Congress.

Under the bill, the Bush administration will have two months to write the rules for the loans, and Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., said she expected money to begin flowing to the industry by the end of the year.

The loans were included in a budget resolution that held several other spending measures to keep the government open through March. The Senate was expected to pass the bill today, and the measure should get a signature from President George W. Bush shortly thereafter.

.....

Detroit automakers say the loans will help them retool factories for more efficient vehicles, but Wall Street analysts have said the program could also alleviate some of the pressures on the automakers' balance sheets. The companies are expected to burn through billions of dollars in cash through 2010, due to declining auto sales and higher costs for commodities.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/BUSINESS01/809250341

[Demeter]

19. I Was Rather Surprised By the Speedy Passage

But the auto industries did start spreading their plants around (probably with the idea of union=busting) and found that they could get a lot more political support by "sharing the wealth" of jobs around the country.

[wordpix]

140. and what do we get for THIS bailout? More gas guzzling trucks and SUVs?

:grr:

[ozymandius]

10. New regulations sure to accompany bailout

Once the smoke clears from the conflagration in the financial markets, Congress and the next administration will face a new challenge: how to keep the next fire from burning down the house.

New regulations, or better enforcement of the old, are certain to be high on the agenda.

...

Legal and political observers believe lawmakers will probably focus first on three broad areas: tightening regulation of mortgage lending, streamlining regulatory enforcement and establishing oversight of unregulated financial markets.

Mortgage lending is an obvious target because so much of the bad debt dragging down banks originated with the lax practices of brokers and lenders, who handed out loans to poorly qualified buyers with scant collateral.

....

Lawmakers may also try to revamp the patchwork of government authority over banks. Banks are now regulated by four agencies -- the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Federal Reserve -- with overlapping jurisdictions.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-regulate25-2008sep25,0,872846.story

[Maeve]

12. I should friggin' hope so

Heya, Marketeers! It's been a wild ride and it ain't over yet, not by a long shot. Hope you brought your Tums, Bonine, Pepto or other stomach remedies cuz you're going to need them.

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning Maeve.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's good to see you drop by for a visit. Does it give you any confidence for equitable action now that Congress has not immediately purchased the bill of goods that Paulson handed them?

:hi:

[Maeve]

24. Oh, yes--Congress knows Paulson has done a "heckuva job" and isn't trusting

We don't need to buy still one more pig in a poke! (For those unsure of that phrase, a poke is a bag and the person who buys an unseen porker may find the poke contains something else when they finally let the cat out of the bag)

Hope y'all are well--I was without electricity for three and a half days last week in the great Ohio windstorm caused by the tail-end of Ike.

[DemReadingDU]

42. Yeh, Ohio was very windy

There are still some here in SW Ohio, who still do not have electricity.

[ozymandius]

47. But you're okay? No property damage I hope.

Was the loss of power the worst of your problems?

As an aside: One colleague's husband is in Texas right now working for an insurance company to assess wind damage estimates on residential structures. He could be in Texas for many weeks while he tours through Galveston and Houston.

[Maeve]

134. A few tree limbs but the worst part was the food we had to throw out

Although we did have a terrific feast of shrimp one night! (Gas stovetop, so we could cook) Yeah, we got off lightly for 75 mph winds

[AnneD]

144. We had some pretty good feasts too......

We now have less than half a million without power....and that is progress. The downed traffic lights are the real nuisance now. I am surprised we don't have more accidents. They are saying Ike was a strong cat 2 hurricane but the surge was more like a cat 4. Where is your friend Ozy.....we have a lot of teams camped in the RV park. All State is the biggest.

[ozymandius]

11. Faber: Fed Acted Like a Liquidity Drug Dealer

Faber calls out the Fed for their responsibility in the current crisis (excerpted from The Big Picture):

Liquidity will dry up even more, volatility will stay high and financial assets are going to suffer as the crisis continues to unfold. The bailout plan is unlikely to work and the global economy will take the hit, he predicted.

“People rely on the people in Congress, at the Fed, at the Treasury, people that brought us into this trouble, to take us out of trouble. I don’t think they will succeed,” Faber said. “We can have recovery rallies but a new high on the S&P is practically out of the question for a very long time. In real terms, equities are still very high and economically, I think the world will go into a slump.”

....

The next emergency measure will be that Americans are not allowed to buy foreign currency and transfer money overseas, and the next measure will be not permitting Americans to buy gold and so on and so forth… It creates even more uncertainty in the market place when you continually change the rules.

click for video

[Ghost Dog]

13. BoJ's Noda: Wall St woes may hurt US economy more

KUSHIRO, Japan, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan policy board member Tadao Noda said on Thursday he was concerned that the recent upheavals on Wall Street could hurt the U.S. economy further.

He also said downside risks to the economy were more visible than upside risks to prices in the near term.

Following are highlights of his speech to business leaders and his comments in a news conference in Kushiro, northern Japan:

WALL STREET, WORLD ECONOMY

(in speech)

"How much the losses among financial institutions ... will add up to eventually is still shrouded in fog. The U.S. housing market is still in adjustment and credit tightening is now spreading from residential mortgages to commercial mortgages and consumer loans.

"Unless this fog (on the size of total losses) disappears, markets won't regain composure. I cannot say for sure to what extent the latest plan by the U.S. administration to buy bad assets will dispel the fog, as details of the scheme have not been made public.

...

"As the U.S. faces adjustment pressure on housing prices and household debt, we need to be wary of the risk that clogging in the blood could lead to greater adjustment.

"It will take time for the U.S. housing market to bottom out.

"A slowdown in the euro zone economy is also becoming more evident.

"Summing up, the world economy will slow amid a slowdown in the U.S. and worsening terms of trade in resource-poor countries. It will return to a moderate growth path if markets calm down and an adjustment in the U.S. housing market runs its course ... My view is that growth will slow in 2008 and 2009, and will finally recover in 2010."

(in news conference)

"Tensions in international financial markets have heightened more than anticipated... And it is hard to think tensions will subside any time soon."

"A large amount of "level 3" assets remain on Western banks' balance sheets. And it's not clear how they will be dealt with. Without those details, it's difficult to evaluate the latest plan (by Washington to buy bad assets from banks)."

...

"We haven't seen a so-called second-round effect of rising commodity prices, where rises in commodity prices lead to increases in wages, creating further rises in prices. Given the weakness of domestic demand, a second-round effect is unlikely to increase.

...

"I think Japanese banks have raised funds for end-September well in advance... The latest offer was one-month lending but the next offer will be three-month term lending, which will cover the year-end period, so I guess there will be larger demand."

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUST17315620080925?sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

15. Japan logs trade deficit as exports slow, costs rise

TOKYO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Japan's trade balance slid into deficit in August as sky-high oil prices ramped up import costs while exports slowed to a crawl, adding to the pain for an economy already teetering on the brink of recession.

Excluding the month of January, when Japanese exports tend to drop on slower factory activity in the New year holidays, it was the first monthly deficit since 1982, when Japan was reeling from the aftermath of an oil crisis.

In a further sign of trouble for an export-reliant economy, exports to the United States posted their sharpest fall ever from the same month a year earlier, while a Bank of Japan board member warned of more turmoil in the U.S. economy.

...

Exports edged up 0.3 percent in August from a year earlier, short of a median forecast for a 2.4 percent rise, Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday. Exports have been losing steam this year as the year-long mortgage crisis has taken its toll on U.S. financial markets, as well as Europe and Asia, hurting the main driver of Japan's economy, the world's second-largest.

...

Japan's exports to the United States fell a record 21.8 percent in August, marking the 12th straight month of annual declines, on sluggish shipments of automobiles. Exports to the European Union slipped, the third fall in four months, leaving solid demand from emerging economies including oil-producing nations as the only cushion against blows to exports. Exports to Asia were up 6.7 percent, and those to China -- now Japan's No.1 export destination -- rose 8.8 percent.

But economists say an easing of oil prices since July, while positive for Japanese consumers and companies in the long run, bodes ill for Japanese exports to resource-rich countries. "Given the recent retreat of oil prices from the peak level, growth in exports to resource-rich nations may also slow down, adding to the downward momentum of overall exports," said Tatsushi Shikano, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter at its sharpest rate in seven years as crumbling U.S. and European export markets hit factories, and consumers tightened their belts in the face of high energy and grocery prices.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINT13970020080925?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

17. Money-Market Rates Increase on Bailout-Delay Concern

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Money-market rates rose on concern the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion bailout plan will be delayed or diluted, causing financial institutions to hoard cash.

The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, that banks charge each other for one-month loans rose today to the highest level since December 2000. Three-month rates in Hong Kong and Singapore also climbed as Bank of East Asia Ltd. faced a run on deposits. The difference between the London interbank offered rate for three-month dollar loans and the overnight indexed swap rate, the Libor-OIS spread, widened to the most on record.

``The conditions are revealing a new level of breakdown in the global financial system that central banks appear powerless to fix,'' Greg Gibbs, director of foreign-exchange strategy at ABN Amro Bank NV in Sydney, wrote in a research note today. ``There's an element of end-quarter demand for liquidity intensifying the problem.''

Money-market rates signal banks have all but stopped lending to each other. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's bailout plan, which proposes moving tainted assets from bank balance sheets to a new institution, has met resistance from Congress. The U.S. faces a ``painful'' recession if the measure isn't approved, President George W. Bush said yesterday.

The Libor-OIS spread widened 2 basis points to 169 basis points today, the most since at least December 2001. It averaged 8 basis points in the 12 months to July 31, 2007, before the credit squeeze started.

Bank Run

``Systemic risks are extremely high, and the outlook appears bleak,'' said Laurence Mutkin, the London-based head of European fixed-income strategy at Morgan Stanley. ``Term lending markets appear almost to have closed, while cash hoarding continues.''

The cost of one-month loans in euros climbed 7 basis points to 4.98 percent, the European Banking Federation said today. It was at 4.52 percent a week ago. The three-month rate climbed 7 basis points to 5.12 percent, the highest level since November 2000. Hong Kong's three-month rate rate rose 13 basis points, advancing for a third day, to 3.80 percent, the highest level since December 2007.

...

Chinese lenders, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have set tighter standards on credit lines with international finance companies, according to people at the banks' treasury departments who declined to be named. Others like China Citic Bank Corp. imposed tighter limits on interest- rate swaps to avoid losses.

Singapore's three-month dollar loan rate surged 29 basis points to 3.684 percent today, the highest level since Jan. 22, according to the Association of Banks in Singapore. In Australia, the one-month bank bill swap rate, used to determine yields on variable-rate loans, was 7.458 percent, the highest level since Aug. 5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``The Australian financial system has felt the impact'' of global difficulties, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in its half-yearly Financial Stability Review published today in Sydney. ``The general increase in uncertainty has also meant that most banks are taking a more cautious attitude to lending.''

...

Financial institutions around the world have posted $523 billion in losses and writedowns tied to the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market since the start of last year.

The difference between what banks and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months, the so-called TED spread, narrowed to 288 basis points today. It was 114 basis points a month ago. The spread increased to 313 basis points on Sept. 18, the most since Bloomberg began compiling the data in 1984.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=agP_H4DT86gI&refer=china

[DemReadingDU]

39. Ted Spread now 3.34

Fear is growing
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

[TalkingDog]

73. Ditto from another source: Bailout Could Deepen Crisis, CBO Chief Says

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3510816

has this story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/24/AR2008092402799.html?hpid=topnews

[ozymandius]

85. Anyone who votes for a bailout has no business running for re-election.

I do not care with which party that person caucuses.

[54anickel]

94. Can I get an AMEN for brother Ozymandius?....AMEN!!!!! n/t

[Hugin]

97. Seconded!

Hallelujah!

[Dr.Phool]

103. Fuckin' A, Bubba!

[llmart]

111. I'm with you on that one....

no way, no how, no bailout.

[ozymandius]

14. Bringing Down Wall Street as Ratings Let Loose Subprime Scourge (must read)

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Frank Raiter says his former employer, Standard & Poor's, placed a ``For Sale'' sign on its reputation on March 20, 2001. That day, a member of an S&P executive committee ordered him, the company's top mortgage official, to grade a real estate investment he'd never reviewed.

S&P was competing for fees on a $484 million deal called Pinstripe I CDO Ltd., Raiter says. Pinstripe was one of the new structured-finance products driving Wall Street's growth. It would buy mortgage securities that only an S&P competitor had analyzed; piggybacking on the rating violated company policy, according to internal e-mails reviewed by Bloomberg.

....

Relying on a competitor's analysis was one of a series of shortcuts that undermined credit grades issued by S&P and rival Moody's Corp., according to Raiter. Flawed AAA ratings on mortgage-backed securities that turned to junk now lie at the root of the world financial system's biggest crisis since the Great Depression, according to Raiter and more than 50 former ratings professionals, investment bankers, academics and consultants.

....

Gold Standard

Driven by competition for fees and market share, the New York-based companies stamped out top ratings on debt pools that included $3.2 trillion of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes between 2002 and 2007. As subprime borrowers defaulted, the companies have downgraded more than three-quarters of the structured investment pools known as collateralized debt obligations issued in the last two years and rated AAA.

Without those AAA ratings, the gold standard for debt, banks, insurance companies and pension funds wouldn't have bought the products. Bank writedowns and losses on the investments totaling $523.3 billion led to the collapse or disappearance of Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. and compelled the Bush administration to propose buying $700 billion of bad debt from distressed financial institutions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ah839IWTLP9s&

[Demeter]

20. Good Morning Ozy! Good Morning Marketeers!

I can't wait to see what new marvels and delights this day will bring! Yesterday's cooling off of the churning was quite refreshing. I expect we'll see a lot more quiet days as the world economy sinks slowly in the West (and crashes to earth elsewhere).

[ozymandius]

21. Good morning Demeter.

I have just been perusing the econ blogs about the aspects of this bailout compromise. It has received universal condemnation for its tacit attempt to artificially prop up asset prices and, eventually, destroy the dollar. So shall we bang pots and pans again? How about deluge Congress with emails, faxes, phone calls? Respond to online polls?

All of the above?

[Demeter]

22. It's a Good Day To Express Oneself!

[Dr.Phool]

33. I bought a new fax machine yesterday.

I plan on burning that sucker out today.

I could be wrong, but I think a fax has a better chance of being read by congressional staff, than an e-mail. And with "free" long distance, why not?

[DemReadingDU]

45. our printer/copier has a fax

For the past couple days, I've been faxing a simple hand-written message using a magic-marker


Please stop the bailouts

Do not pass the finance bailout bill

No more tax dollars to bailout Wall Street

Thank you



I'm thinking of changing the message today...

Please Vote No on the bailout bill

Thank you


edit to add please!





:)

[54anickel]

61. I caught Lawrence Odonnell with Rachael Maddow in a clip, and he's saying

the bailout will pass, they're just tinkering on the edges (so it's not such an obvious screwing over) and that most of the negotiating later today and tomorrow will be on how to split the votes across the aisle so that the public can't look back and blame one party over the other.

We will all remain captive to this monetary system that derives it's value from nothing but debt.

I came across a page with tons of quotes regarding money. http://www.seek2know.net/money.html

Here's a sampling:

Money is a new form of slavery, and distinguishable from the old simply by the fact that it is impersonal -- that there is no human relation between master and slave." - Leo Tolstoy

"All of the perplexities, confusion, and distress in America arises, not from the defects of the Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." -- John Adams, Founding Father

"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling money and its issuance." - President James Madison

"You are a den of vipers and thieves and I intend to rout you out, and by the eternal God, I will rout you out. If Congress has the right to issue paper money, it was given them to be used by themselves, and not to be delegated to individuals or corporations.." -- Andrew Jackson's address to Congress 1829

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies." - Thomas Jefferson.


And a couple quoted from the Fed....

"Because of 'fractional' reserve system, banks, as a whole, can expand our money supply several times, by making loans and investments." "Commercial banks create checkbook money whenever they grant a loan, simply by adding new deposit dollars in accounts on their books in exchange for a borrower's IOU." - Federal Reserve Bank, New York

"The actual process of money creation takes place in commercial banks. As noted earlier, demand liabilities of commercial banks are money.."Confidence in these forms of money also seems to be tied in some way to the fact that assets exist on the books of the government and the banks equal to the amount of money outstanding, even though most of the assets themselves are no more than pieces of paper--.", P.3."Commercial banks create checkbook money whenever they grant a loan, simply by adding new deposit dollars in accounts on their books in exchange for a borrower's IOU.", p. 19. "The 12 regional reserve banks aren't government institutions, but corporations nominally 'owned' by member commercial banks.",
p. 27.- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


I know we've posted it many times in the past, but the old series on Money is Debt seems extremely relevant these days. We shouldn't let them stop at this bailout band-aid on the system. We need a new system, but that sort of change isn't going to come about without pitchforks and torches, and a lot of pain.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yvRZoM-2r8&feature=related

[DemReadingDU]

98. But the passage of this bill transfers control of money

from Congress to Paulson. Paulson becomes the decider, a King.

Unless the bill is modified, Paulson will decide which banks to keep because they are his cronies, and how to appropriate that 700 billion to his cronies. And if that is not enough, Paulson can decide to come after our mutual funds and pensions.

I feel ill.

[54anickel]

119. My point is more that they've not even made the case that there needs to BE a bailout, but they're

gonna get one, and yes, that makes your point about Paulson relevant if we just roll over and give them the bailout - which, sadly, it looks as though we have.....

[Demeter]

23. A Bailout We Don't Need By James K. Galbraith

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/24/AR2008092403033.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Thursday, September 25, 2008; A19



Now that all five big investment banks -- Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley -- have disappeared or morphed into regular banks, a question arises.

Is this bailout still necessary?

The point of the bailout is to buy assets that are illiquid but not worthless. But regular banks hold assets like that all the time. They're called "loans."

With banks, runs occur only when depositors panic, because they fear the loan book is bad. Deposit insurance takes care of that. So why not eliminate the pointless $100,000 cap on federal deposit insurance and go take inventory? If a bank is solvent, money market funds would flow in, eliminating the need to insure those separately. If it isn't, the FDIC has the bridge bank facility to take care of that.

Next, put half a trillion dollars into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. fund -- a cosmetic gesture -- and as much money into that agency and the FBI as is needed for examiners, auditors and investigators. Keep $200 billion or more in reserve, so the Treasury can recapitalize banks by buying preferred shares if necessary -- as Warren Buffett did this week with Goldman Sachs. Review the situation in three months, when Congress comes back. Hedge funds should be left on their own. You can't save everyone, and those investors aren't poor.

With this solution, the systemic financial threat should go away. Does that mean the economy would quickly recover? No. Sadly, it does not. Two vast economic problems will confront the next president immediately. First, the underlying housing crisis: There are too many houses out there, too many vacant or unsold, too many homeowners underwater. Credit will not start to flow, as some suggest, simply because the crisis is contained. There have to be borrowers, and there has to be collateral. There won't be enough.

VARIOUS SENSIBLE POLICY SUGGESTIONS FOLLOW...

Some will ask if we can afford it. To see the answer, don't look at budget projections. Just look at interest rates. Last week, in the panic, the federal government could fund itself, short term, for free. It could have raised money for 30 years and paid less than 4 percent. That's far less than it cost back in 2000.

No country in this situation is broke, or insolvent, or even in much trouble. For once, Wall Street's own markets speak the truth. The financially challenged customer isn't Uncle Sam. He's up on Wall Street, where deregulation, greed and fraud ran wild.

James K. Galbraith is the author of "The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too."

[ozymandius]

37. So now the whole rationale for the plan is “price discovery”

A sneaking suspicion

So now the whole rationale for the plan is “price discovery”: we’re going to throw lots of taxpayer funds into the pot because that will let us find the true values of troubled assets, which are higher than the fire sale prices out there, and so balance sheet will improve, confidence will return, etc, etc..

So I just did a Nexis search trying to find out when Paulson and Bernanke started talking about price discovery, which we’re now told are at the core of the plan’s logic. And the answer is …

Yesterday.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/a-sneaking-suspicion/

---

If K&B were taking an Econ101 essay exam and proposed this bullshit as a solution to this dynamic problem...

They would get an "F".

[radfringe]

25. Piehole hit Asian Markets last night

heard on the radio on way to work this morning - while bush was flapping his piehole last night, the asian markets took a dive

[Caradoc]

27. Legacy!

Here it is, Georgie Boy! Welcome to your Legacy! Think they'll throw up a Presidential Library for this? It may have to double as a food bank. Oh well, at least there will be that sewage plant in San Francisco as a lasting memorial to your remarkable leadership.

[TalkingDog]

36. That was the first time in 8 + years I haven't switched him off out of the gate.

I still got that vertiginous sense of cognitive dissonance I always get from watching him. But this time it was muted.

His problem always has been that he is a failure. He knows it and in his heart of hearts (yes a very tiny place, that) he knows that we all know it. So when people gave him what he wanted and agreed with him, his sense of discomfited confusion and panic was amazingly palpable. In the past, I often felt like I was on the verge of a panic attack when I had to watch him. Listening was easier because I couldn't see his body language's panicky screams of "WRONG!!!"

As he became more and more unpopular and his internal and external realities began to merge, he became more watchable; not so.... automaton-like in his delivery.

He still doesn't believe everything he is saying, that's obvious. And what he believes to be true in the speech was also very obvious.

He does not believe:
The bailout will fix anything.
Or help the American public.
That, (as he implied) Freddy and Fannie were the primary culprits in the mortgage problem.
In avoiding government intervention.
That taxpayers should or will be protected.

He does believe:
That stupid, ne'er do-wells shouldn't be able to borrow money they won't pay back.
Most of the people outside his social caste are in the previous category.

His disdain for anything and everything "unfamiliar" (read human and humane) drips from his pores. His claims to understanding the people's "anxiety about their finances and their future" reeked of dissonance.

But, I will say (so as to contribute at least one positive thought), the speech writers used simplified ideas and small words. His remaining base needs that. The rest of us would've liked something more nuanced and in-depth.

I told the Spousal Unit this morning that it was the political version of Movie Phone. You get the times, dates, title and leading characters, but that's not the same as actually watching and understanding the movie.

[radfringe]

40. two things about mr. piehole

1. deer in the headlights

2. anyone else hear some strange crunching, grinding sound in the background? we watched on MSNBC - just the channel? don't know... could have been someone too close to microphone - or bush crushing the podium, crumbling papers?

[dweller]

48. it was evident on other channels also

i actually watched it on Fox channel affiliate here. The grumbling, squeaking background noise was pretty laughable... sounded like critters in the peanut gallery displeased w/ him and bitching among themselves.

dp

[radfringe]

52. my partner insisted the noise was because

bush didn't take his beano before dinner...

[ozymandius]

54. Coke jaw grinding his molars?

I didn't see the address. I'd love to see if his lack-of-depth of understanding was evident for myself.

[Hugin]

55. They were eating pretzels?

Must've been a game on.

[TalkingDog]

65. Heard it. Thought it was muffled laughter from those in attendance.n/t

[dweller]

56. well, he did speak in some truthiness

"I'm a strong believer in free enterprise, so my natural instinct is to oppose government intervention. I believe companies that make bad decisions should be allowed to go out of business.

Under normal circumstances, I would have followed this course."

and i immediately thought of Arbusto, Spectrum 7 and Harken Energy...

dp

[Hugin]

57. Good catch, dweller.

Much luck to you today in the pool. :)

[dweller]

66. thanks Prag

but from the looks of the numbers so far, not going to happen.
up 225...

oh well, probably good for all. My date was based on the same philosophy i'd use IF i had $ to pick stocks - a gut guess.

but today will be a good day: i'm heading to the first staff mtng for a new job :)
i feel lucky afterall.

dp

[ozymandius]

59. Only now - the stakes are much higher.

He's trying to put the U.S.A. out of business.

[Roland99]

26. GE slashes earnings view for 2008 (To halt stock buyback)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3510542

[Festivito]

28. Debt: 09/23/2008 9,791,569,244,675.95 (UP 5,703,078,765.55)

(Up less today, from last two days.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
5,613,893,232,637.39 + 4,177,676,012,038.56
(Public, I think now includes China and Brazil et. al.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

HISTORICAL:
01/19/1993 4,187,806,610,369.16
01/20/1993 4,188,092,107,183.60 BC Inaugural
01/21/1993 4,174,218,594,232.91
01/22/1993 4,175,229,095,992.95

01/19/2001 5,727,776,738,304.64
01/22/2001 5,728,195,796,181.57 GB Inaugural

Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3507760&mesg_id=3507874

[fedsron2us]

88. How much does the US have to borrow from abroad just to pay the interest on the debt ?

Once you are at that stage you are screwed. Even the crazy export obsessed governments in China and Japan must be beginning to realize that the cost of subsidizing their trade surpluses is beginning to reach the point where the profits do not justify the costs. Once you are effectively not only lending the money on the principle but also providing the cash to pay the interest on your own loans then it must be time to pick up your ball and go home.

[Festivito]

145. Debt interest cost about 490B$ 2007, 2008: 520B$ estimated.

Not a site I know, but...
http://www.federalbudget.com/
I read the chart and estimated the amounts.

For the amount borrowed last year I take amounts from Sep 30, 2006 to Sep 30, 2007 which gives me 500,679,473,047.25 from debt to the penny. This really should have accounting adjustment, however, this is close enough for what you were asking.

You can take it as though the amount we pay in interest is just about the same as the amount we currently borrow and 2008 closing in a few days looks worse. I'd agree that it's an ugly looking situation.

However, we cannot go home, this is our home. We have a lot of work to do.

Getting ready for tomorrows post:
DEBT: 09/24/2008 9,788,080,661,828.23 (DOWN 3,488,582,847.72)
(Debt actually decreased 3.5B$ since yesterday. This happens occasionally. Had heavy borrowing for last three days, e.g. 5.7B$ increase in debt was lowest of last three days. Yesterday, probably more in treasury bonds were cashed than written.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
5,614,420,276,276.55 + 4,173,660,385,551.68 (Public, I think now includes China and Brazil et. al.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

HISTORICAL:
01/19/1993 4,187,806,610,369.16
01/20/1993 4,188,092,107,183.60 BC Inaugural
01/21/1993 4,174,218,594,232.91
01/22/1993 4,175,229,095,992.95

01/19/2001 5,727,776,738,304.64
01/22/2001 5,728,195,796,181.57 GB Inaugural

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in 2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in 2008: 780,427,289,565.75 so far.
(You can see why a 3.5B$ yesterday surplus is meaningless compared to the 780.4B$ deficit borrowed so far this year. That of course would not stop a RW outlet like NewsMax from running an article about how fiscally responsible GWB really is... gag me! They did that once several years ago the supercilious superfluous shills.)

Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3510453&mesg_id=3510549

[UpInArms]

30. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.719 Change -0.279 (-0.36%)

Dollar's Future Dims As Financial Crisis, Rate Cut Fears Linger

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar_s_Future_Dims_As_Financial_1222289542245.html



The Economy And The Credit Market



The worst of the financial crisis seems to have passed; but uncertainty over the markets’ health and the long-term implications to growth are still weighing heavily on Fed rate expectations and the US dollar. While the general panic that had stricken risk appetite this past week seems to have settled, market participants have been reluctant to return to business as usual with Congress holding up the proposed $700 billion bailout plan that had initially alleviated fears of additional failures in the financial sector. What’s more, the financial crunch has started to awaken many to the dour outlook for the US economy in the months ahead. Cautious on risk and bearish on growth, traders are now pricing in an 80 percent probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark rate 25 bps to 1.75 percent at the October 29th meeting. By the end of the year, the odds for at least one cut rise to 85 percent.



A Closer Look At Financial And Consumer Conditions

Right now, the markets are more concerned with the immediate health of the financial markets – and rightfully they should be. However, when a solution has been found and speculators come back to the markets, there will be a bigger concern to consider for monetary policy officials and the outlook for returns: growth. Sentiment seems to be partially buoyed by the strong 3.3 percent annualized pace of growth through the second quarter. However, with unemployment at a five year high and rising, business investment looking anemic and other economies already contracting, a local recession is likely.

While immediate concerns of massive bank failures have been quieted, there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the health of credit and financial markets. With the US government struggling to agree on the appropriate terms for a permanent bailout solution, traders are once again holding to short-term and other low-risk assets. Moving away from perceived risk, capital is finding its way into T-bills and other short-maturities products. On the other hand, there is even doubt as to what can be considered a safe harbor now after money market funds ‘broke the buck’ last week and with the US debt ceiling soaring.

...more...

Dollar Lacks Direction As Market Focuses On Testimony

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar_Lacks_Direction_As_Market_1222300191988.html

The U.S. dollar had a mixed performance on Wednesday. The greenback was particularly strong against low yielding currencies like the Japanese yen but lost some ground against commodity currencies like the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar. Nonetheless, the currency market remains very volatile and the main focus has been on Capitol Hill where the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson were giving their testimony. Indeed, many investors are waiting to see if the U.S. Congress will approve a $700bn plan that will enable banks to clean up their balance sheets from bad investments in mortgage backed securities. Yet, other investors are already making bets that those measures will not be enough to rescue the U.S. economy from a technical recession. In fact, regardless if the plan gets approved or not, the U.S. economy is likely to continue to face substantial challenges including further job losses, high energy prices and a rapid deleveraging in the financial sector. Moreover, some traders are concerned with the fiscal impact of the bailout plan which could cost almost 5 percent of GDP.

Just to put the size of the U.S. treasury bailout into perspective, one can look at the cost of the war in Iraq. Paulson's plan will cost $700bn or $30bn per month over the next two years. This is nearly three times more than the monthly cost of the war in Iraq which costs $10bn per month to the U.S. tax payer. Currently, the United States federal government runs a deficit of $438bn, or 3 per cent of gross domestic product and the bailout costs could push the fiscal deficit next year to $1 trillion or 7% of GDP. However, although no one can be sure that U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan to buy illiquid mortgage assets from several financial institutions is the best plan to deal with the current economic circumstances, it’s difficult to deny that the plan is not a good first step to restore confidence in the financial system. Indeed, the measures engineered by the U.S. Federal Reserve to clean the market from some toxic assets could be the beginnings of a more general recover in the appetite for risky assets like high yielding currencies. Looking ahead and despite the recent increase in volatility which makes it very difficult to make forecasts, I expect the U.S. dollar to rise further, particularly against the Japanese yen.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. 3-mth Libor rates rise, dlr Libor/OIS spread at record wide

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLP64883220080925

LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The interbank cost of borrowing
three month dollars, euros and sterling rose further, according
to the British Bankers Association's latest daily fixing, as
nervous market participants awaited developments from Washington
on a $700 billion financial bailout plan.
 The near 30 basis point rise in the three-month dollar
London interbank offered rate on Thursday contributed to the
spread of the three-month Libor/OIS (Overnight Index Swap rate)
for dollars hitting a record high close to 200 basis points. 
 The spread expresses the three-month premium paid over
anticipated central bank rates, or Overnight Index Swap rates
and is seen as a gauge of banks' willingness to lend to each
other with wider spreads seen as an indication of decreased
inclination to lend.
 Below is a table of the London interbank offered rates
(Libor) for dollar, euro and sterling funds in percentage terms,
with the change from the previous session in parentheses.
 
         EURO       STERLING           DOLLAR

O/N 4.38000 (+0.00500) 5.08125 (+0.08125) 2.56250 (-0.12500) 
1WK 4.77750 (+0.05000) 5.60000 (+0.25625) 4.00000 (+0.06250) 
2WK 4.82250 (+0.06250) 5.81250 (+0.11875) 3.93125 (+0.08750) 
1MO 4.96750 (+0.05750) 5.98750 (+0.07750) 3.70875 (+0.28000) 
2M0 4.99725 (+0.09975) 6.09625 (+0.06750) 3.73125 (+0.27000) 
3MO 5.11125 (+0.04875) 6.27625 (+0.07625) 3.76875 (+0.29250) 
6MO 5.29375 (+0.02625) 6.37500 (+0.05375) 3.97500 (+0.27375)
1YR 5.48250 (+0.02500) 6.46875 (+0.04500) 3.98250 (+0.22500)
 
  3MTH LIBOR/OIS SPREAD (BPs)
    
91.42500 (+7.4750) 155.22500 (+5.0250) 197.87500 (+32.2500)

 For RICs to the above rates, go to <0#LIBORSUPERRICS>.

[DemReadingDU]

41. The Century Of The Self - Part 1 of 4 - By Adam Curtis

"This series is about how those in power have used Freud's theories to try and control the dangerous crowd in an age of mass democracy." - Adam Curtis
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8953172273825999151

There's a lot of info about Edward Bernays too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Bernays

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

60. Doc is a 10+.

Pass it around.

[DemReadingDU]

76. You may also post wherever!

Thanks!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

84. I have, Many times.

[54anickel]

92. Yep, one of my first bookmarked youtubes. I was introduced to it by a post on DU, not sure who,

might have been you, RUMMYisFROSTED. Thanks to whomever it was and to DemReadingDU for resurrecting it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

95. "I'll just watch part one..."

Four parts later, the afternoon has been shot.

[54anickel]

115. Yep, like a great book that you just can't put down. So much of these here

"internets is like that"! You just get sucked it and loose all track of time.

[Joe Chi Minh]

43. Surely, motability-specialist "extraordinaire", James Baker, must be inolved in this,

somewhere along the line. "She's a nice clean unit... guaranteed to the gate."

I actually knew a lad in Oz who bought his limo from an outfit calling itself, of all things, Las Vegas Motors! And you wouldn't believe who he bought it from. A bloke called Lucky Pavlovich. And just to top to all off, he'd not long left an order of religious brothers. They must have seen him coming from a mile away. He used to say that whenever he thought about them, he'd imagine taking a bomb there and blowing the place up!

[ozymandius]

50. 9:41 numbers and pre-open blather

Dow 10,911.19 Up 86.02 (0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,172.52 Up 16.84 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,193.00 Up 7.13 (0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 3.78% Up 0.009
NYSE Volume 284,458,250
Nasdaq Volume 86,615,382.812

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30. Stock futures continue to drift lower from their morning highs. The dollar is down after stringing together two consecutive sessions of gains. The dollar index is currently down 0.3% to trade at 76.56. The index hit its lowest point in a month this past Tuesday.

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.30. Stock futures continue to indicate an upward start to the trading session. Futures, however, are off their best level of the morning. In a CNBC interview, bond guru Bill Gross stated the unemployment rate could end up around 7% and the economy is not looking good for 2009. Oil futures are currently more than 1% lower, trading below $105 per barrel.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.30. Some economic data has just hit the wires, causing futures to dip a bit after rising earlier. August durable goods orders slipped 4.5%, which is worse than the 1.9% decline that was widely expected. Prior month orders were downwardly revised to reflect a 0.8% increase. Excluding transportation, orders were down 3.0%. Economists were expecting a 0.5% decline after the downwardly revised 0.1% increase in the preceding month. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 totaled 493,000, up 32,000 week-over-week. The latest results were worse than the 450,000 claims that were expected.

[DemReadingDU]

51. GMAC's Future May Hinge on Inclusion in U.S. Government Rescue

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC's best chance of riding out the financial crisis intact may involve the lender finding its way into the U.S. government's $700 billion bank-rescue plan, analysts say.

While Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke try to sell the package to Congress, Detroit-based GMAC is burning through cash and its bonds have fallen to a record low. The biggest drain is GMAC's Residential Capital LLC home-lending unit, which lost $1.9 billion in the second quarter -- 2-1/2 times more than the auto loan unit.

``Internally, everyone's got to be hoping like heck they make it into the bailout program,'' said David Lykken, co-founder of Mortgage Banking Solutions, an Austin, Texas-based consulting firm. ``That is probably the only option they have at this point.''

GMAC, co-owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Capital Management LP, had more than two-thirds of its $227 billion in assets wrapped up in business and consumer loans, including mortgages, at the end of June. Some loans, which have contributed to $5.4 billion in losses over the past year, may be removed from the balance sheet if and when legislation is passed for the government to purchase assets.

GMAC spokeswoman Gina Proia declined to say if the company is seeking inclusion in the plan. ``We've met all obligations to date and we intend to continue honoring our commitment to investors,'' Proia said.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arp9YFFKeamc&refer=home

[54anickel]

62. Look like Hank and Ben need to set up one of these.....

http://bp0.blogger.com/_UNYCSL4p_DY/RpfbZhEh8SI/AAAAAAAAAHU/cTBUbUHBJPQ/s320/take+a+number.jpg

[Hugin]

64. Knowing them... It's an Exclusive Members Only Invitation Only Event.

R.S.V.P. Born with Silver-Spoon... You know the type.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

63. Chemin' de Fer in the Kasino

PETROLEUM ($/bbl)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 104.03 -1.70 -1.61 09:23
Dated Brent Spot 100.90 -.06 -.06 09:53
WTI Cushing Spot 104.97 -1.91 -1.79 09:12


PETROLEUM (¢/gal)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Heating Oil Future 296.62 -4.71 -1.56 09:23
Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future 259.15 -.32 -.12 09:21


NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Henry Hub Future 7.53 -.15 -1.99 09:23
Henry Hub Spot 8.13 .28 3.57 09/24
New York City Gate Spot 8.34 .26 3.22 09/24


ELECTRICITY ($/megawatt hour)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Mid-Columbia, firm on-peak, spot 60.50 2.65 4.58 09/24
Palo Verde, firm on-peak, spot 55.36 1.50 2.78 09/24
Bloomberg, firm on-peak, day ahead spot/West Coast

[AnneD]

68. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: I am still off because we have no power in or school. The bad news is they are now saying some places may not get power until Oct and Nov.This is shaping up to be an interesting conundrum for the school district. They are wanting us to add an hour to our school day-which will put us right in the middle of rush hour and cancel many after school activities. The TEA says we don't have to make the days up but the Stooperintendet wants to be macho. The union has promised to enforce the teachers contract and demand overtime. We would win in court too. More drama than West Wing-stay tuned.

Me, I am enjoying my time. I had no summer break what with getting Leila ready for college. I am just about caught up with my work. The last thing will be handling my financial work related to retirement (re balancing the portfolio, thinking about my options, etc). I think I'll go out to the Galleria and window shop a while.

I decided that driving a car is too dangerous at the moment so I will be commuting by bus henceforth. We have sooooo many traffic lights broken, falling down, or still no power, that it just isn't safe and commute times have swollen. Bus looks mighty good to me. I bought me a rolling briefcase yesterday to prepare for the switch.

Hurricane Ike , for all the frustrations we had to endure, seems to have been a plus for us socially. Folks have been reminded that tragedy can effect anyone-even the well heeled. Folks are valuing community, friends and family more. It is a subtle but very evident change.

Well, back to the pool.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[TalkingDog]

77. was looking for you yesterday, glad you are safe n/t

[AnneD]

80. Times are interesting here....

A romantic dinner is 2 MRE's by candle light.

We will either have a baby boom in 9 months, or an increase in the divorce rate-hard to tell at the moment.

Showers, dinner parties, and sleep overs have a whole new meaning here.

You have your friends and neighbour's unmentionables in your washer and drier.

Cocktail /Happy hour is in your front yard or your neighbours.

Mosquito repellant is as precious as gas-if not more so.

You only need an extension cord as long as the distance from your house to your neighbor across the street to have a party..

Business look the other way when you plug in your phone or computer to recharge.

Free WIFI is second only to air conditioning as a business draw.

Complaining about anything is a social faux pas-too many folks are suffering more than you so suck it up, pull up your big girl/boy under ware and deal with it.

It's another beautiful day in Houston so get your gloves on and fire up the chain saw.

[54anickel]

70. If you get the chance, check out the latest video from Denninger...here's one

straight-talking, ticked off, old guard Republican

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x197854

[antigop]

71. PBGC hearing yesterday -- pensions of 5 cos in crisis underfunded by $400 million

http://www.lloyds.com/dj/DowJonesArticle.aspx?id=406041

The pension plans of five key companies in the ongoing mortgage crisis are underfunded by $400 million, a situation that could put pressure on the bottom line of the already cash-strapped Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. should it have to intervene in the underfunded plans.


PBGC Director Charles E.F. Millard said it is too soon to say whether it might have to get involved with any of the pension plans. But Millard told lawmakers at a congressional hearing that the plans of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), Indymac Bancorp Inc. (IDMC) and American International Group Inc. (AIG) are underfunded by $400 million.


If all five of those companies were to terminate their plans, the PBGC would have to pay out about $100 million in pension benefits, Millard added.


"It is not all clear what will actually happen, but that is the magnitude of things," Millard said, although he noted that a takeover of all five plans may not be likely since AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac haven't declared bankruptcy.


Millard said the agency would be able to pay the amount needed without a problem if it had to, but the long-term financial health of the PBGC is already in jeopardy.

NOTE: The article lists the exposure to credit default swaps and mortgage-backed securities.
There is a correction to this article:
http://www.lloyds.com/CmsPhoenix/DowJonesArticle.aspx?id=406050

The PBGC has a net notional value of $2.8 billion in exposure to credit default swaps, a type of insurance meant to protect lenders against borrowers who don't pay. Those are the derivatives that have gotten companies such as AIG into trouble. If all of the positions the agency is swapping against were wiped out, the PBGC would face a net loss of $1.7 billion.


(The PBGC said its director provided incorrect information on its potential losses to the subcommittee during his presentation. The incorrect information was included in the story "PBGC: Pensions Of Five Cos. In Mtg Crisis Underfunded By $400M," published around 2:23 p.m. EDT and updated around 3:48 p.m. EDT.)

[antigop]

72. Sirota: Remember this when the $700B bailout passes (why $700b figure)

http://action.credomobile.com/sirota/2008/09/remember_this_when_the_700_bil.html

When you are wondering why they chose the whopping $700 billion price tag for the Wall Street bailout instead of a much smaller number, remember that they chose it for no actual reason:

In fact, some of the most basic details, including the $700 billion figure Treasury would use to buy up bad debt, are fuzzy.

"It's not based on any particular data point," a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. "We just wanted to choose a really large number."

[AnneD]

75. Pool Unlocked-get your bets in so I can make corrections ASAP

I am still sipping my coffee from the Titanic 3rd class passengers mug when I read this thread. It seems the right thing to do.

The winners of the pool have to hit the mark at the close of the day, but those that guessed yesterday will not go unrecognized. They will be inducted into the prognosticators hall of fame and will receive a virtual case of lipstick in their choice of colours-because they know how to put lipstick on the pig or pit bull-whatever....

Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24. You can revise your dates until the DJIA hits(IMPORTANT CHANGE) 10700 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date. Note the change on the cut off. That should make for a good horse race. I will check the post date/time for last minute posters but those that guessed the date way in advance get extra points. The earlier posters are at the top in the cases of multiple guesses on the same day.





Demeter.....9/22
Buttercup McToots ... 9/22 (Note: Said Please.)
ozone_man.....9/23
Talking Dog.....9/24
dweller.... 9/25
Roland99.....9/25
JuneBourder.....9/29
radfringe.... 10/09/08 (Countdown!)
Birthmark....10/10
Mojorabbit.... 10/11
Tansy_Gold.....10/13
dweller....10/14 (Note: Standby Date)
DemReadingDU.....10/16
Roland99.....10/17
AnneD....10/24
Neshanic.....10/24
UpInArms.....10/30
MsLeopard.....10/31
Wordpix.....11/3
Passingfair.....11/4
Ship wrack.....11/5
Wednesdays.....1/16/2009

Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. If your date isn't on the list, e-mail me and I'll add it the next time I post. I erased expired dates so you can guess again. I post about one a week-more often the closer we get to the number. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stock Watch Thread. We have also kicked in for a years worth of bragging rights and Karl Rove as your own pool boy if we can find Speedos to fit. There is still time to place your bets.....And please-no Reggie bars in the pool.

IMPORTANT ADDENDUM: I believe, as an investor, one day does not a trend make. So as activity coordinator of the pool, additional guesses are allowed should it dip down but pop up above the cut off. Call it the Indian Summer Clause. I personally think that 11000 is their PIN, but the fact that it cannot be pumped up any further anymore points to weakness in the system-for my $0.02.

The Roulette ball is in play now....place your bets before it stops.



Prognosticators Hall of Fame


Ghost Dog ....9/18 (You may just get it GD!)
uppityperson... 9/18 (Note: Because it's a special day.)
FinnFan.....9/18 a last minute add on.

Honorary inductees

Ozy.....9/19 (Note: Ozy picked this date a couple of months ago.)
AnneD..... 9/19 (Like the quadruple witching thang.)
readmoreoften... 9/19
Karenina.... 9/19

They had to change horses in mid stream to beat this date. I think 9/19 was the date Paulson crapped his pants. Their rigging the system became so evident that it couldn't be hidden, even from the average Joe. Prize awarded...1 case of Depends/Pampers-you'll need it when you and your kids and grand kids get the tax bill for this bail out.

[Hugin]

79. Update requests I've seen...

Roland99 asked to be added to today.
Dr.Phool said something too, but, I don't recall. You might want to PM.

I'm still sitting it out. Too much interference to make a decent guess.

If the Congress caves... I'm going to start an Armageddon Pool. I may have to go to a site other than
DU to do it, but, I'm going to.

[AnneD]

82. We can combine the two if Congress caves.....

but in my travels here in Houston-folks are more aware of the bail out and they are pissed. Heads will roll in Congress over this one. Folks are almost at the tar and feather stage-even in laid back Houston.

[Demeter]

93. AnneDarling, Please move me to Oct. 13th! Thanks!

[Dr.Phool]

86. I said today, just as a hunch about the piehole effect.

Don't look like that's going to happen, so I'll just hang around and watch for a while also.

It looks like Congress is going to fold. Who would have thought otherwise?

As for an Armageddon Pool. Good idea. Especially with this info from Glen Greenwald. I saw a short clip from Amy Goodman about it yesterday.

Maybe the "Emperor in Chief" is planning to stop-gap himself, and call off the elections? I wouldn't put anything past these fascists.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/09/24/army/index.html?source=newsletter

Wednesday Sept. 24, 2008 12:26 EDT
Why is a U.S. Army brigade being assigned to the "Homeland"?

(updated below - Update II)

Several bloggers today have pointed to this obviously disturbing article from Army Times, which announces that "beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the <1st Brigade Combat Team of the 3rd Infantry Division> will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North" -- "the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities." The article details:

They'll learn new skills, use some of the ones they acquired in the war zone and more than likely will not be shot at while doing any of it.

They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack. . . .

The 1st BCT's soldiers also will learn how to use "the first ever nonlethal package that the Army has fielded," 1st BCT commander Col. Roger Cloutier said, referring to crowd and traffic control equipment and nonlethal weapons designed to subdue unruly or dangerous individuals without killing them.

"It's a new modular package of nonlethal capabilities that they're fielding. They've been using pieces of it in Iraq, but this is the first time that these modules were consolidated and this package fielded, and because of this mission we’re undertaking we were the first to get it."

The package includes equipment to stand up a hasty road block; spike strips for slowing, stopping or controlling traffic; shields and batons; and, beanbag bullets.

[Hugin]

91. Not to worry...

Apparently, Jesus is picking up the tab.

"Bring finances her way even for the campaign in the name of Jesus."

Palin's Mission From Gawd

[dweller]

81. please change my standby date

to 10/14. (Since 10/25 is a saturday :blush: )


thanks
dp

[Karenina]

112. Hey AnneD!

Please put me down for 10/20.

Your account of the nuance of change in community relations says quite a lot. I'm just happy you're OK.

[antigop]

78. Questioning Warren Buffett's role

http://action.credomobile.com/sirota/2008/09/questioning_warren_buffetts_ro.html

Knowing all of these irrefutable facts, am I out of line to think Buffett's role - and the Obama people allowing him to play this role - could be preceived as a wee bit shady?

He's heavily investing in a company that stands to make a huge windfall if the bailout passes, and he's simultaneously advising the guy whose support is critical for passing the windfall. I'm not in any way saying Buffett already has insider information that Obama is going to support the bailout - that seems like the insider trading-ish behavior Democrats say they want to stop.

But I am wondering why no one has even bothered to ask whether Buffett's dual role in all this is appropriate? Look, I'm sure Buffett is a great guy, and its terrific he's planning to donate a lot of his money to charity. But appearance-wise, this doesn't look good - it seems, in fact, to reinforce the whole disaster capitalism image of this bailout. While there may be no overt improprieties here, while Buffett certainly may just be independently investing and then independently advising Obama, and while I know we are never ever supposed to question the awesomely unquestionable awesome Warren Buffett, the image that his dual role projects is not one that should inspire any confidence that this bailout is in the public's interest. I don't think I'm being a conspiracy theorist when I ask whether we should at least be asking about this (after all, something can't be a conspiracy if the facts are right out in the open).

How is it that no major journalist or news organization has asked simple questions about Buffett's role? And how is it that Obama's people aren't worried that McCain - the quintessential opportunist - is going to roll out the questions on their own, in the form of an attack ad? And how come progressives aren't asking those questions? Think of it this way - if this was a McCain adviser doing the same thing, would we not question it?

[54anickel]

89. Good question! To which I can offer no answer. Part of the problem as I see it, (and my vision is

quite skewed by my own circumstances) is that the people involved in the debate are all in agreement (mistakenly IMO) that saving the current system is in the best interest of everyone. The problem is their limited definition of everyone, which blinds them to those most deeply injured, impoverished, abused and exploited by the "current system" they are trying to sustain. They are looking at this as "save the people" but "save the system". We, dear people, are fucked.

[Hugin]

100. When do they have any interaction with someone who makes under $35,000 a year?

My guess is it's been months if not years.

Whereas, my typical experience I rarely talk to anyone for months who makes more than $35,000 per annum.

Quite the divide there... They can't even comprehend it.

[antigop]

99. William Kristol --- yeah,THAT William Kristol

http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/opinions/editorial/2008/09/22/ddn092208kristol.html?cxntlid=inform_sr

And I acknowledge that there are serious people who think the situation too urgent and the day too late to allow for a real public and congressional debate on what should be done. But — based on conversations with economists, Wall Street types, businessmen and public officials — I'm doubtful that the only thing standing between us and a financial panic is for Congress to sign this week, on behalf of the American taxpayer, a $700 billion check over to the Treasury.
But is the administration's proposal the right way to do this? It would enable the Treasury, without congressionally approved guidelines as to pricing or procedure, to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars of financial assets, and hire private firms to manage and sell them, presumably at their discretion There are no provisions for — or even promises of — disclosure, accountability or transparency. Surely Congress can at least ask some hard questions about such an open-ended commitment.
...
And I've been shocked by the number of (mostly conservative) experts I've spoken with who aren't at all confident that the Bush administration has even the basics right — or who think that the plan, though it looks simple on paper, will prove to be a nightmare in practice.

[TalkingDog]

107. a nightmare in practice

I am, admittedly, no expert on high finance.

But other than a general lubricant that helps improve liquidity between financial institutions, no one has satisfactorily explained exactly how this is supposed to help the larger economy.

Banks and lending institutions are all saying that they will continue their tighter rein on the loans they make to the general public. So if the money can't get into the pockets of people who will spend it; whether to start a business or buy a house or introduce some other economic stimulant.

If that is the case, they haven't "improved" anything with this deal. If we, the people, have misunderstood the process or results we probably would appreciate some feedback of substance.

[antigop]

116. Be sure to watch the video posted by 54anickel -- post #70

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3510453&mesg_id=3510839

[Roland99]

101. Bulletin - 1:12pm - U.S. STOCKS SURGE TO DAY'S HIGH AS SENATE BANK CHIEF HAILS 'FUNDAMENTAL' BAILOUT

per MarketWatch

[Dr.Phool]

102. Oh boy! Another trillion dollars in debt!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26884523/

Lawmakers: Wall Street rescue accord reached
Dodd, Frank: Agreement in principle, expect passage of bill within days



BREAKING NEWS
NBC News and news services
updated 1 minute ago

WASHINGTON - Top lawmakers said Thursday that Republicans and Democrats have reached a fundamental agreement on the principles of a financial rescue for Wall Street and are on track to pass a bill within the next few days.

Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said a “fundamental agreement” on the principles of a bailout have been reached and said he hopes Congress can act within the next few days. Separately, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., said a bailout bill is “on track” for passage.

Earlier, Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises, told CNBC that negotiations over a proposed $700 billion rescue for Wall Street have gone well and a plan could be in place before financial markets open on Monday morning.


_________________________________

Assholes!

[Hugin]

106. The fight is not over yet!

Keep those letters and phone calls going!

Be sure to mention you don't appreciate the "Bailout" being rejiggered to a "Rescue".

[DemReadingDU]

108. Congress has a plan

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/25/news/economy/deal_reached/index.htm?postversion=2008092513

[TalkingDog]

109. Rescue? Like on the Titanic?

Or maybe like the Medusa immortalized by Théodore Géricault:

The fleet left the Île-d'Aix on June 17, 1816. The Medusa was quickly left behind by the rest of the ships. One of the passengers on the Medusa was a Monsieur Richefort, who was a philosopher and a member of the Philanthropic Society of Cape Verde. Though he possessed no real maritime knowledge, he convinced Captain Chaumereys that he was an expert at the art of navigation. Lacking a master, the individual usually responsible for the actual navigation and sailing of a vessel, de Chaumereys, impressed by the credentials of his guest, soon turned over the navigational duties to Richefort. This was to prove disastrous.<2>

The ship's navigation became erratic, especially once it approached the coast of Africa. Passengers and officers protested, yet Captain Chaumereys continued to place the safety of his vessel in Richefort's hands. The Echo reappeared at one point and desperately attempted to stop the Medusa's efforts to run aground, but eventually left on her own course. The Medusa reached Madeira on June 27 and neared Cape Blanco shortly after. According to two survivors, Savigny and Corréard, Monsieur Richefort convinced the captain that a large cloud bank on the horizon was in fact the cape, though experienced mariners disagreed. Further compounding this error, Richefort and Captain Chaumereys ignored the French Ministry of Marine instructions that they give the Bank of Arguin a wide berth. They should have steered west and then south to double the bank, 100 miles off the shore, but instead the Medusa was immediately turned south.<3>

According to the statements of Savigny and Corréard, the ship began sailing over increasingly shallow water, yet de Chaumereys and Richefort ignored all the signs, insisting they were sailing in deep water. Some of the signs included white breakers, sand rolling in the waves, and changes in color of the water. Finally one of the officers took it upon himself to start taking soundings off the bow, without the captain's permission. Monsieur Maudet, the officer, quickly found they were passing over 18 fathoms, and warned the captain. Finally alerted to their danger, de Chaumereys ordered the ship brought up into the wind, but it was too late. The ship ran hard aground.<4>

Wild disorder took over as discipline vanished. Numerous ideas for lightening the ship and immediately coming off the reef were proposed to the captain, but nothing was done. Plans were also proposed to begin ferrying the 400 or more persons to the shore, 60 miles to the north, which would have taken two trips with the ship's boats. That night, a gale developed, and the ship showed signs of breaking up. Governor Julien Schmaltz suggested that a huge raft be built, and the idea was met with almost total agreement. A raft measuring 20 meters in length and 7 meters in width was rapidly constructed, but it was woefully unstable. It could have fit perhaps 15 people, but 146 men and 1 woman boarded it. Seventeen men decided to stay on the Medusa, and the rest crowded into the ship's longboats. <5>

Those in lifeboats soon realized that towing the raft was impractical. It was decided to cut the rope and leave the rest of the crew to its fate, after making good progress towards shore. (According to some sources it was Governor Schmaltz's boat that was first to drop the tow line to the raft.)

On the raft, the situation deteriorated rapidly. Fighting arose between the officers and passengers against the sailors and soldiers. On the first night 20 men were killed or committed suicide. Stormy weather threatened, and only the center of the raft was secure. Dozens died either in fighting to get to the center, or because they were washed overboard in the large waves. Rations dwindled rapidly and by the fourth day there were only 67 left alive on the raft, and some resorted to cannibalism. On the eighth day, the fittest began throwing the weak and wounded overboard. By that time only fifteen men remained, all of whom survived until their rescue two weeks later.<6><7>

The ship Argus took the survivors to Saint-Louis to recover. Five of the survivors, including Jean Charles, the last African crew member, died within days. Three of the seventeen men that had decided to stay on the Medusa were later recovered alive. British naval officers helped the survivors to return to France because aid from the French Minister of the Marine was not forthcoming.

Medusa's surviving surgeon Henri Savigny submitted his account to the authorities. It was leaked to an anti-Bourbon newspaper, the Journal des débats, and appeared on September 13, 1816. The matter became a scandal embroiled in French internal politics and officials tried to cover it up. De Chaumereys was found guilty in a court martial at Port de Rochefort.

[ozymandius]

133. Just got off the phone with my reps.

Georgia:
District 5
John Lewis
opposed to bailout
calls are 10 to 1 against

Senate
Isakson
no deal yet
will review after final draft
unspecified margin majority against

Chambliss
no deal yet
will review after final draft
unspecified margin majority against
currently shopping for Crisco and kneepads

[54anickel]

120. All that's left is dividing up the votes for passage, it's got to be a good mix from

both parties voting for with another good mix voting against so that historically it will look like a close call with neither party solely responsible.
I'm going to be ill now. :puke:

[Hugin]

122. Yup, I'm with you 54anickel and exactly the same M.O. as the IWR.

Man, these guys need a new script.

Please, pass the Pepto. :puke:

[Dr.Phool]

123. My neighbor has a sign in his front yard.

"Vote Out All Incumbents". I couldn't agree more whole-heartedly.

I dropped my absentee ballot off on Monday. I think it's probably the last one I'll ever vote in. And, I haven't missed one since '72.

[Hugin]

124. Not much use watching this financial stuff anymore...

I started while I was trying to start a small business recently. Honestly, it was like trying to use flint sparks on wet kindling.

The people at the level I was trying to work at were either too broke to buy or they went to a big box and bought foreign
crap thinking they were getting a good deal.

[DemReadingDU]

125. There are some powerful people behind these bailouts

I don't know who they are, but they have installed Paulson as King to ensure they take all our money. Somehow I see them installing Sarah Palin as our next figurehead president.

:tinfoilhat:

[Hugin]

126. ...

The installation is exactly what Henry Kissinger said to someone at the Olympics.

Or so I heard.

:tinfoilhat:

[DemReadingDU]

128. oh, I think my brain does remember reading that somewhere

frightening times we live in

[Hugin]

130. It would be a good quote to see, but, I don't know much more about it.

A family member told me that they'd seen it reported during the news while the games were in session.

[Roland99]

110. Rescue deal would pay $700 bln in installments: report

Rescue deal would pay $700 bln in installments: report
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BBDD51BE0%2DCFE7%2D4B26%2DA8A3%2D535B88947C28%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A bipartisan agreement reached on Capitol Hill Thursday afternoon would pay out a $700 billion proposed rescue package for the financial markets in installments, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Journal reported that $250 billion in bailout funds would be available immediately, citing people familiar with the matter. Earlier Thursday, lawmakers announced they reached a deal on the package after a meeting lasting more than two hours. Lawmakers said the deal includes effective oversight of the rescue plan and limits on executive compensation.

[Hugin]

114. Still no explanation of exactly how doing these actions will change anything?

Only an announcement that we're on a payment plan.

Did I miss it?

[JNelson6563]

113. 10 yr. yield chart flipping the bird

Seems rather appropriate IMO. ;-)

Julie

[Dr.Phool]

117. The markets speak!

[Ghost Dog]

118. Sarkozy demands overhaul of world economic system

TOULON, France, Sept 25 (Reuters) - President Nicolas Sarkozy attacked the world's capitalist system on Thursday, saying it needed to be overhauled and promised to protect the French economy from the fallout.

In a keynote speech on the market mayhem, Sarkozy said France was in recession and the crisis would weigh on the economy for months to come, but promised that the state would step in to protect bank deposits if necessary.

He also urged the European Union to revise its economic model and rethink its monetary policy goals.

"I am convinced that the problem is a deep-seated one and we need to rebuild the whole world financial and monetary system from scratch," Sarkozy told some 4,000 supporters at a rally in southern France.

"The idea of the absolute power of the markets that should not be constrained by any rule, by any political intervention, was a mad idea. The idea that markets are always right was a mad idea," he said.

He repeated his call for major power leaders to meet before the end of the year to map out a new financial system and said it was vital to review currency levels, adding that both the dollar and Chinese yuan were undervalued.

"We cannot continue to manage the economy of the 21st century with the instruments of the economy of the 20th century," he said.

He also warned bankers and business leaders to curb their salary levels, saying the government would introduce legislation by the end of the year if they failed to reform themselves.

He said Europe needed to rework its institutions to make them strong enough to deal with the sort of crisis that threw Wall Street banks into disarray this month.

"It must reflect collectively on its doctrine of competition...on the instruments of its economic policy, on the objectives assigned to its monetary policy," Sarkozy said.

He said he would make proposals for how this could be done at next month's European Union summit.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLP23408120080925?rpc=44&sp=true

[54anickel]

121. Even with the bailout passed, this ain't over. Not by a long shot. Next up, reserve currency. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

127. CNBC: Shelby - Don't believe we have an agreement on a bailout plan

5pm

:shrug:

[54anickel]

143. Huh? I saw that he was in a huff, but lost track of what was going on. n/t

[Demeter]

131. It's NOT Passed Yet!

Agreements can be violated.

[Dr.Phool]

129. When is Congress going to rescue the American People from Wall Street?

Just curious.

[dweller]

132. Boy, i can sure pick 'em, eh?

went up instead of down :D
(anybody need their fortune told?)

and take a gander at this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=387686&mesg_id=387686

Submitted by
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. and Michael D. Larson
Weiss Research, Inc.
to
United States Congress
Senate Banking Committee
and House Financial Services Committee
September 25, 2008

Too Little, Too Late to End the Debt Crisis;
Too Much, Too Soon for the U.S. Bond Market
http://www.weissgroupinc.com/bailout/Bailout-White-Paper-Sept-24-2008.pdf

dp

[ozymandius]

135. finals

Dow 11,022.06 Up 196.89 (1.82%)
Nasdaq 2,186.57 Up 30.89 (1.43%)
S&P 500 1,209.18 Up 23.31 (1.97%)
10-Yr Bond 3.862% Up 0.091
NYSE Volume 5,915,085,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,892,987,625

4:20 pm : Stocks caught a bid Thursday as investors grew confident that a troubled-asset purchase plan will soon win Congressional approval. That notion helped participants disregard an underwhelming outlook from a corporate bellwether, downbeat economic data, and rising oil prices.

Though the details of a plan to acquire troubled assets from financial firms are still being hashed out, traders are convinced a plan will soon be announced. Bolstering their case, Representative Frank and Senator Dodd indicated in a speech to the press that the plan is on track.

The plan's direct impact on financial firms won the sector favor during the session. Though off its high, financials closed 2.6% higher with 69 of its 85 members making gains.

Business conglomerate General Electric (GE 26.08, +1.49) stirred concern briefly this morning as investors caught word the company lowered its outlook for the third quarter and for fiscal 2008. GE also announced it has suspended its stock buyback program.

The disappointment proved temporary, though, as investors assessed comments from GE chief executive Jeffrey Immelt along with word that Standard & Poor's affirmed GE's AAA rating. The stock finished higher, outperforming the broader market.

In other corporate news, Nike (NKE 65.04, +5.74) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 32.19, +1.48) both saw quarterly earnings per share results decline year-over-year. Nike topped the consensus estimate, and Bed Bath & Beyond matched expectations. Their shares also outperformed the broader market.

The gains Thursday were all the more impressive considering they came in the face of disappointing economic data.

Durable goods orders fell 4.5% for August. Excluding transportation, orders were down 3.0%. Both were worse than expected and marked reversals from the gains registered the month before.

Jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 20 were up 32,000 to 493,000, surpassing the 450,000 claims that were expected. The number included 50,000 claims related to recent hurricanes. Nonetheless, the four-week moving average climbed to 462,500 from 446,500. The data portend a ninth consecutive decline in nonfarm payrolls as job conditions remain soft.

New home sales continue to disappoint. New home sales in August totaled 460,000, missing the 510,000 consensus. Month-over-month, new home sales were down 11.5%, which is substantially below the 1.0% downturn that was expected.

Oil prices rebounded from an early morning loss to close with a gain. The commodity had been down roughly 2% in the early going, but closed with gains of almost 2% near $108 per barrel.

The bounce in oil prices failed to undermine investor optimism as the mood remained upbeat throughout the session. DJ30 +196.89 NASDAQ +30.89 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +1.1% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +23.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1664/1.86 bln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2265/1.21 bln/885

[Demeter]

136. As Much As I Revere Meredith Willson, and Darly As I Love the Musical,

the Music Man is no basis upon which to operate this country. I thought so the first time around, with Ronald Reagan in the starring role: "He don't know one note from another!".

I thought even less of the idea with Bush One : "He can't tell a bass drum from a pipe organ!"

And as for now: "He's a two-bit, thimble-rigging spell binder, and one of these days I'm going to catch up with him!"

[antigop]

137. Oh, we got trouble...right here in River City...trouble, trouble, trouble n/t

[DemReadingDU]

141. someone close to McCain says the deal is dead in the water

just heard on CNBC

I'm thinking McCain really doesn't want to debate Obama tomorrow.


edit: another thought
McCain is playings politics with Obama while Bernanke is barely keeping the markets from crashing. Hm, who will win, or lose?

:shrug:

[Mojorabbit]

142. I am holding my breath and scared to death

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3511754
Banks snap up Fed cash at record $188 bln per day

Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. financial institutions borrowed a record $187.75 billion per day on average directly from the Federal Reserve in the latest week, showing the central bank went to extremes to keep the financial system afloat amid the biggest crisis since the Great Depression.

Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday the total amount borrowed nearly quadruples the previous record of $47.97 billion per day notched just the week before and comes as the Bush administration and U.S. lawmakers work on hammering out an agreement on a $700 billion rescue package for the financial system.