No Increase in Proportion of First-Time Voters

[traveller]

Source: gallop



October 23, 2008
No Increase in Proportion of First-Time Voters
Thirteen percent of registered voters say they will be voting for first time



by Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup finds 13% of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.

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Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/Increase-Proportion-FirstTime-Voters.aspx

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umm. I wonder what this means for turnout??

[Idealism]

1. How the hell

is that possible, ACORN alone registered over 1.3 million people, not to mention Obama's aggressive Vote For Change stance... smells fishy

[AndyTiedye]

5. How Many of the People ACORN Registers Have Landline Phones?

[Igel]

18. Revised downward, just a smidgeon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24acorn.html

"On Oct. 6, the community organizing group Acorn and an affiliated charity called Project Vote announced with jubilation that they had registered 1.3 million new voters. But it turns out the claim was a wild exaggeration, and the real number of newly registered voters nationwide is closer to 450,000, Project Vote’s executive director, Michael Slater, said in an interview.

"The remainder are registered voters who were changing their address and roughly 400,000 that were rejected by election officials for a variety of reasons, including duplicate registrations, incomplete forms and fraudulent submissions from low-paid field workers trying to please their supervisors, Mr. Slater acknowledged.

"In registration drives, it is common for a percentage of newly registered voters to be disqualified for various reasons, although experts say the percentage is higher when groups pay workers to gather registrations. But the disclosure on Thursday that 30 percent of Acorn’s registrations were faulty ...".

[Stellabella]

2. It's Gallup.

They weight their polls with a slant toward repukes.

[Bicoastal]

3. Because most of the people who registered for the first time don't have landlines, duh.

Ain't hard to figure out.

[traveller]

9. the article says both types of phone users were polled.

[JaneQPublic]

4. Did this poll call only by land lines or did it include cell numbers?

I tell ya, if they didn't call cell phones, they missed a good portion of new voters.

If memory serves me, the whole reason the Truman win was so unexpected was that the polls were based on telephone interviews and left out the people who didn't have phone service.

It's the same difference today, only now the people without land lines have cell phones instead.

[Indenturedebtor]

6. Yeah why in the hell would I want a landline?

So telemarketers can get ahold of me?

[traveller]

10. if you read the article, its says both were polled

[Winterblues]

12. I don't think they can legally do that

Since cell phones charge by the minute whether the call is incoming or outgoing I think there are laws against solicitation. Where would they find the numbers to call since they are unlisted numbers...I don't buy it...

[Kahnsta]

16. I thought that was illegal too...

I actually just changed my cell number because I have recently been receiving soliciting calls- from credit card agencies, vehicle warranties, etc.

I also believe that a poll made by phone these days is not going have great results.. I hardly know anybody with a landline these days (besides my parents), and if they do they have caller ID. I know I do not answer my phone unless I know who it is, and that is something that a LOT of people tend to do.

It is true, there seems to be hype every election about voter turnout going up- there are always new ways to try and reach the young voters. However, this election I think there is really something different to vote about- more so than in the past. Not only are we in an economic crisis that EVERYBODY is feeling now and wanting to change, but we also have the opportunity to vote for a president who IS change for us- and in a position at this point in time to make those changes... not to mention making history by electing the first African American president to the United States! I expect that there will be a larger increase in voters than expected this election.

[fulllib]

7. This just means that a lot of new registrations have voted before.

13% of the new registrations are first time voters, that means the rest of the people have voted before but are at a new address.

[kestrel91316]

8. B. Frickin'. S.

[Lex1775]

11. It could be true...

I've talked to people whose attitude is "Obama is so far ahead, me not voting for him won't matter, McCain doesn't have the support to catch him anyway." :wow:

(Granted I am in AZ)

[krkaufman]

13. Have you informed them that they thinking is damaged?

EVERY person needs to vote, to make-up for whatever voter suppression will be encountered... but also to run-up the popular vote, to use it as a sledge-hammer by Obama in pushing for his changes.

Frustrating to hear such thinking.

[Lex1775]

19. "Frustrating to hear such thinking."

No kidding. I've had the talks with them. Probably half will still go vote... the rest... I doubt.

[krkaufman]

20. You can only do so much. n/t

[Name removed]

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[cobalt1999]

15. I wouldn't be surprised.

Each election people expect an increase in first time voters and youth voters. Never happens and I don't expect this election cycle to be much different.

The nice thing is about this election is no one is counting on a big increase to win. Obama will win based on likely voters.

[melody]

17. Well, if 80% of those new registrants are Democrats, it doesn't matter, does it? :)

The Democrats are way ahead in the number of new registrants (that aren't stolen by the neocon GOP).