STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 6

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 6, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 75
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2569 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2860
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 5, 2008

Dow... 9,139.27 -486.01 (-5.32%)
Nasdaq... 1,681.64 -98.48 (-5.53%)
S&P 500... 952.77 -52.98 (-5.27%)
Gold future... 742.40 -14.90 (-2.01%)
30-Year Bond 4.15% -0.07 (-1.61%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69% -0.07 (-1.89%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

And Then There Were None
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

....

One by one the supposed pillars of strength to the stock market and economy are falling, along with it many widely held assumptions. We were exposed to many beliefs in 2007 as to why the stock market and economy would hold up as risks were downplayed and bullish theories were held as infallible truths. Below are some of the most widely held assumptions that have since proven overly optimistic.

* Subprime mortgage fallout would be contained
* Corporations would support the economy with their strong balance sheets
* Global economy would decouple from the U.S.

There is no need to comment on the three assumptions above as they have since been debunked. However, today’s WrapUp focuses on the components of GDP and how the currently held assumption, that exports would keep the economy afloat and prevent a recession, will also be proven overly optimistic as one by one the components of GDP crumble. The accounting equation for GDP is given below, showing its components.

Y = C + I + NX + G

* Y = GDP
* C = Consumer Spending
* I = Investment = Residential + Nonresidential
o Change in private inventories is ignored in this analysis
* NX = Net exports
* G = Government expenditures

....

With such widespread pessimism across the globe coupled with declining global manufacturing activity, it was no surprise to see a sizable drop off in the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Export Orders Index, which plummeted to 41.0 in October from the recent high of 57.0 in August. The ISM Export Orders Index leads the YOY rate of change in GDP exports, signaling that 2008 Q4 and 2009 Q1 GDP growth will likely decline significantly as the last private economic support to the economy falters.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 11/01
Briefing.com 475K
Consensus 476K
Prior 479K

08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 4.3%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

28. Initial Claims @ 481,000 - last wk rev'd up 6,000 - continuing jobless claims rise to 25-year high

16. U.S. weekly continuing jobless claims rise to 25-year high
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

17. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 4,000 to 481,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

18. U.S. 3Q productivity up 1.1% vs. 0.3% expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

19. U.S. 3Q unit labor costs rise 3.6% vs. 4.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

20. U.S. real compensation down 0.9% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

21. U.S. 3Q hours worked fall 2.7%, most in six years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

[UpInArms]

31. Real compensation in past year falls at fastest rate in 13 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Workers-hours-slashed-keep-productivity/story.aspx?guid=%7B004BE5D9%2D1368%2D4D02%2D9882%2D1DF2B13B32A8%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. firms cut back their employees' working hours in the third quarter at the fastest rate in six years, keeping productivity growth rising more than expected, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.

Productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at a 1.1% annual rate as output fell 1.7% and hours worked dropped 2.7%. The decline in output was the largest since the recession in 2001.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected productivity to increase at a 0.3% annual rate.

Unit labor costs - a key gauge of inflationary pressures from labor markets - rose 3.6% compared with the 4.2% expected by economists.

Real hourly compensation fell 1.9% in the quarter and is down 0.9% in the past year, the largest annual decline in 13 years.

In the past year, productivity is up 2% and unit labor costs are up 2.3%. Hours worked are down 1.7%, and output is up 0.3%.

Workers' real compensation has fallen over the past year, suggesting that workers were not able to demand higher wages to offset the higher prices they paid for energy and food. If employees don't get raises to match the increase in prices, the inflationary spiral is severed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Continuing jobless claims hit 25-year high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Continuing-jobless-claims-hit-25/story.aspx?guid=%7B78FFEEFB%2D9D2C%2D4AE3%2D840A%2DBCAF827DAD74%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of U.S. residents collecting state unemployment benefits reached the highest level in 25 years, rising by 122,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.84 million in the week ending Oct. 25, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Meanwhile, the number of first-time applications for benefits fell by 4,000 to 481,000 in the week ending Nov. 1, the government agency added.

The jobless claims report shows businesses are laying off workers at a rapid pace, while finding a replacement job is ever harder.

The figures come just a day before the government will report on the October labor market. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for nonfarm payrolls to plunge by 210,000 and for the unemployment rate to rise by two-tenths to 6.3%. The

October report is expected to be the worst in five years.

The economy has lost jobs for nine consecutive months. So far in 2008, nonfarm payrolls have fallen by 760,000 to 137.3 million.

Typically, unemployment benefits run out after 26 weeks for those who are eligible. A federal law extends unemployment benefits for an extra 13 weeks under the separate federal program.

...more...

[Fluffdaddy]

53. Ouch. Real bad nows

[NeoConsSuck]

76. Sure is. And if it ain't fixed by Feb 1st, 2009

you can be damn sure the right wing will start blaming Obama. If by March 1st, the DOW hasn't reached an all-time high, the Obama administration will be deemed a complete failure.

Already the right wing slime are saying this economic disaster is because the Democrats controlled Congress the past two years.

[Demeter]

79. Only the Mentally Impaired Will Believe It, Though

[Tansy_Gold]

83. Unfortunately, there are a lot of MI folks out there.

They are the people who are simply beyond the reach of reason. I got in to a very unfortunate email exchange with one of them last night. An exercise in utter futility and frustration.

She didn't want to change her mind because she didn't have the emotional fortitude to face the fact that she'd ever been wrong. Someone else might think badly of her, might think she's less than perfect. It's much more comfortable to persist in her beliefs.

It's actually very liberating to be able to admit you've been wrong. And maybe that kind of liberation is frightening to them, too.

TG

[UpInArms]

60. U.S. Oct ICSC retail sales fell 0.9 pct vs year ago

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0637967420081106

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. comparable chain store
sales fell 0.9 percent in October from a year earlier, the
International Council of Shopping Centers said on Thursday.

 Following is a breakdown of the survey's components:

YEAR/YEAR PCT CHANGE    OCT    SEPT   AUG   JULY   JUNE    MAY
Total Comparable       -0.9    1.0    1.7    2.5    4.2    2.9
Total less Wal-Mart    -4.2   -1.0   -0.1    1.3    1.9    1.4
Total less drug store  -1.4    0.7    2.0    2.5    4.5    2.9
--------------------------------------------------------------
Apparel               -11.0   -7.6   -4.9   -5.5   -4.6   -6.5
Department            -10.9   -9.8   -5.8   -5.7   -4.1   -3.5
Luxury                -19.2  -10.9   -5.6   -5.1  -10.9    4.1
Discount                0.5    0.9    1.7    2.3    5.1    3.0
Drug                    2.3    3.8    0.1    2.8    2.2    2.9
Furniture               NA     NA     NA   -10.0  -26.2   -6.3
Wholesale clubs         1.6    7.4    8.9    9.5    9.0    8.4
--------------------------------------------------------------
Total store sales       0.3    4.4    6.2    7.4    8.7    9.1
Number of retailers     37     36     37*    40     40     38

*Revised figure

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall below $65 in Asia

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped below $65 a barrel Thursday in Asia amid as renewed concerns about the severity of a global economic slowdown triggered an exodus from stocks and commodities.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery pared earlier losses and was down 53 cents to $64.77 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. Oil prices have fallen by about 56 percent since peaking at $147.27 a barrel in mid-July.

....

Further proof of the scale of the downturn in the world's largest economy came with news that the U.S. services sector, the largest component of the country's gross domestic product, contracted sharply in October as new orders and employment fell.

....

For the week ended Oct. 31, gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels, or 0.6 percent, which is 1.3 percent below year-earlier levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.06 cents to $1.435 a gallon. Heating oil dropped 0.24 cent to $2.0523 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery rose 3.3 cents to fetch $7.282 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[bemildred]

55. Yahoo has oil at $60.80 right now.

How low can it go?

http://finance.yahoo.com/futures

[ozymandius]

4. Administration speeding up on economic problems

WASHINGTON – At a time when most administrations are slowing down, the Bush White House appears to be speeding up — at least when it comes to getting the $700 billion financial rescue program up and running.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, President Bush's point man on the gigantic program, is pushing his staff to do everything possible to show markets that the government is getting the money out the door to bolster the financial system and get banks to resume more normal lending.

On Wednesday, one day after Sen. Barack Obama won the presidency, the Treasury Department detailed how it planned to borrow a record $550 billion before the end of this year to back the bailout. Treasury said it would sell $55 billion in bonds next week, including a reintroduction of the three-year note — all part of a massive borrowing effort required because of the cost of the bailout and a budget deficit that some believe could hit nearly $1 trillion next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[Demeter]

22. Licensed Kleptocracy for Years to Come: The ABCs of Paulson's Bailout By Michael Hudson

October 21, 2008 "Counterpunch" -- - "Treasury Secretary Paulson’s bailout speech on Monday, October 13, poses some fundamental economic questions: What is the impact on the economy at large of this autumn’s unprecedented creation and giveaway of financial wealth to the wealthiest layer of the population? How long can the Treasury’s bailout of Wall Street (but not the rest of the economy!) sustain a debt overhead that is growing exponentially? Is there any limit to the amount of U.S. Treasury debt that the government can create and turn over to its major political campaign contributors?

In times past, national debt typically was run up by borrowing money from private lenders and spent on goods and services. The tendency was to absorb loanable funds and bid up interest rates on the one hand, while spending led to inflationary price increases for goods and services. But the present giveaway is different. Instead of money being borrowed or spent, interest-yielding bonds are simply being printed and turned over to the banks and other financial institutions. The hope is that they will lend out more credit (which will become more debt on the part of their customers), lowering interest rates while the money is used to bid up asset prices – real estate, stocks and bonds. Little commodity price inflation is expected from this behavior.

The main impact will be to reinforce the concentration of wealth in the hands of creditors (the wealthiest 10 percent of the population) rather than wiping out financial assets (and debts) through the bankruptcies that were occurring as a result of “market forces.” Is it too much to say that we are seeing the end of economic democracy and the emergence of a financial oligarchy – a self-serving class whose actions threaten to polarize society and, in the process, stifle economic growth and lead to the very bankruptcy that the bailout was supposed to prevent?

Everything that I have read in economic history leads me to believe that we are entering a nightmare transition era. The business cycle is essentially a financial cycle. Upswings tend to become economy-wide Ponzi schemes as banks and other creditors, savers and investors receive interest and plow it back into new loans, accruing yet more interest as debt levels rise. This is the “magic of compound interest” in a nutshell. No “real” economy in history has grown at a rate able to keep up with this financial dynamic. Indeed, payment of this interest by households and businesses leaves less to spend on goods and services, causing markets to shrink and investment and employment to be cut back.

Banks cannot make money ad infinitum by selling more and more credit – that is, indebting the non-financial economy more and more. Government officials such as Treasury Secretary Paulson or Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke are professionally unable to acknowledge this problem, and it does not appear in most neoclassical or monetarist textbooks. But the underlying mathematics of compound interest are rediscovered in each generation, often prompted by the force majeur of financial crisis.

A generation ago, for instance, Hyman Minsky gained a following by describing what he aptly called the Ponzi stage of the business cycle. It was the phase in which debtors no longer were able to pay off their loans out of current income (as in Stage #1, where they earned enough to cover their interest and amortization charges), and indeed did not even earn enough to pay the interest charges (as in Stage #2), but had to borrow the money to pay the interest owed to their bankers and other creditors. In this Stage #3 the interest was simply added onto the debt, growing at a compound rate. It ends in a crash.

This was the flip side of the magic of compound interest – the belief that people can get rich by “putting money to work.” Money doesn’t really work, of course. When lent out, it extracts interest from the “real” production and consumption economy, that is, from the labor and industry that actually do the work. It is much like a tax, a monopoly rent levied by the financial sector. Yet this quasi-tax, this extractive financial rent (as Alfred Marshall explained over a century ago) is the dynamic that is supposed to enable corporate, state and local pension funds to pay for retirement simply out of stock market gains and bond investments – purely financially and hence at the expense of the economy at large whose employees are supposed to be gainers. This is the essence of “pension-fund capitalism,” a Ponzi-scheme variant of finance capitalism. Unfortunately, it is grounded in purely mathematical relationships that have little grounding in the “real” economy in which families and companies produce and consume.

Paulson’s bailout plan reflects a state of denial with regard to this dynamic. The debt overhead is self-aggravating, becoming less and less “solvable” and hence more of a quandary, that is, a problem with no visible solution. At least, no solution acceptable to Wall Street, and hence to Paulson and the Democratic and Republican congressional leaders. The banks and large swaths of the financial sector are broke from having made bad gambles in the belief that money could be made to “work” under conditions that shrink the underlying industrial economy and stifle wage gains, eroding the market for consumer goods. Debt deflation reduces sales and business activity in general, and hence corporate earnings. This depresses stock market and real estate prices, and hence the value of collateral pledged to back the economy’s debt overhead. Negative equity leads to bankruptcy and foreclosures.

By increasing America’s national debt from $5 trillion earlier this year to $13 trillion in almost a single swoop by taking on junk loans and other bad investments rather than letting them to under as traditionally has occurred in the “cleansing” culmination of business crashes (“cleansing” in the sense of clean slates for debts that cannot reasonably be paid), Paulson’s bailout actions increase the interest payments that the government must pay out of taxes or by borrowing (ore printing) yet more money. Someone must pay for bad debts and junk loans that are not wiped off the books. The government is now to take on the roll of debt collector to “make a profit for taxpayers” by going around and kneecapping the economy – which of course is comprised primarily of the “taxpayers” ostensibly being helped.

It is a con game. Financial gains have soared since 1980, but banks and institutional investors have not used them to finance tangible capital formation. They simply have recycled their receipt of interest (and credit-card fees and penalties that often amount to as much as interest) into yet new loans, extracting yet more interest and so on. This financial extraction leaves less personal and business income to spend on consumer goods, capital goods and services. Sales shrink, causing defaults as the economy is less able to pay its stipulated interest charges.

This phenomenon of debt deflation has occurred throughout history, not only over the modern business cycle but for centuries at a time. The most self-destructive example of financial short-termism is the decline and fall of the Roman Empire into debt bondage and ultimately into a Dark Age. The political turning point was the violent takeover of the Senate by oligarchic creditors who murdered the debtor-oriented reformers led by the Gracchi brothers in 133 BC, picking up benches and using them as rams to push the reformers over the cliff on which the political assembly was located. A similar violent overthrow occurred in Sparta a century earlier when its kings Agis and Cleomenes sought to annul debts so as to reverse the city-state’s economic polarization. The creditor oligarchy exiled and killed the kings, as Plutarch described in his Parallel Lives of the Illustrious Greeks and Romans. This used to be basic reading among educated people, but today these events have all but disappeared from most people’s historical memory. A knowledge of the evolution of economic structures has been replaced by a mere series of political personalities and military conquests.

The moral of ancient and modern history alike is that a critical point inevitably arrives at which economies either adopt hard creditor-oriented laws that impoverish the population and plunge downward socially and militarily, or save themselves by alleviating the debt burden. What is remarkable today is the almost total failure of political leaders to provide an alternative to Paulson’s bailout of Wall Street from the Bear Stearns bankruptcy down through the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to last week’s giveaway to the banks. Nobody is even warning where this destructive decision is leading. Governments ostensibly representing “free market” philosophy are acting as the lender of last resort – not to households and business non-financial debtors, and not to wipe out the debt overhang in a Clean Slate, but to subsidize the excess of financial claims over and above the economy’s ability to pay and the market value of assets pledged as collateral.

This attempt is necessarily in vain. No amount of money can sustain the exponential growth of debt, not to mention the freely created credit and mutual gambles on derivatives and other financial claims whose volume has exploded in recent years. The government is committed to “bailing out” banks and other creditors whose loans and swaps have gone bad. It remains in denial with regard to the debt deflation that must be imposed on the rest of the economy to “make good” on these financial trends.

Here’s why the plan for the government to recover the money is whistling in the dark: It calls for banks to “earn their way out of debt” by selling more of their product – credit, that is, debt. Homeowners and other consumers, students and car buyers, credit card users and their employers – the “taxpayers” supposed to be helped – are to pay the repayment money to the banks, instead of using it to purchase goods and services. If they charge only 6 per cent per year, they will extract $93 billion in interest charges – $42 billion to pay the Treasury for its $700 billion, and another $51 billion for the Federal Reserve’s $850 billion in “cash for trash” loans.

If you are going to rob the government, I suppose the best strategy is simply to brazen it out. To listen to the mass media, there seemed no alternative but for Congress to ram the plan through just as Wall Street lobbyists had written, to “save the market from imminent meltdown,” refusing to hold hearings or take testimony from critics or listen to the hundreds of economists who have denounced the giveaway.

Hubris has reached a level of deception hardly seen since the 19th century’s giveaways to the railroad barons. “We didn’t want to be punitive,” Paulson explained in a Financial Times interview, as if the only alternative was an enormous gift. Europe did not engage in any such giveaway, yet he claimed that England and other European countries forced his hand by bailing out their banks, and that the Treasury simply wanted to keep U.S. banks competitive. Wringing his hands melodramatically, he assured the public on Monday that “We regret having to take these actions.” Banks went along with the pretense that the bailout was a worrisome socialist intrusion into the “free market,” not a giveaway to Wall Street in the plan drawn up by their own industry lobbyists. “Today’s actions are not what we ever wanted to do,” Paulson went on, “but today’s actions are what we must do to restore confidence to our financial system.” The confidence in question was a classic exercise in disinformation – a well-crafted con game.

Paulson depicted the government’s purchase of special non-voting stock as a European-style nationalization. But government’s appointed public representatives to the boards of European banks being bailed out. This has not happened in America. Bank lobbyists are reported to have approached Treasury to express their worry that their shareholdings might be diluted. But the Treasury-Democratic Party plan invests $250 billion in government credit in non-voting shares. If a recipient of this credit goes broke, the government is left the end of the line behind other creditors. Its “shares” are not real loans, but “preferred stock.” As Paulson explained on Monday: “Government owning a stake in any private U.S. company is objectionable to most Americans – me included.” So the government’s shares are not even real stock, but a special “non-voting” issue. The public stock investment will not even have voting power! So the government gets the worst of both worlds: Its “preferred stock” issue lacks the voting power that common stock has, while also lacking the standing for repayment in case of bankruptcy that bondholders enjoy. Instead of leading to more public oversight and regulation, the crisis thus has the opposite effect here: a capitulation to Wall Street, along lines that pave the ground for a much deeper debt crisis to come as the banks “earn their way out of debt” at the expense of the rest of the economy, which is receiving no debt relief!

Paulson shed the appropriate crocodile tears on behalf of homeowners and the middle class, whose interest he depicted as lying in ever-rising housing and stock market prices. “In recent weeks, the American people have felt the effects of a frozen financial system,” he explained. “They have seen reduced values in their retirement and investment accounts. They have worried about meeting payrolls and they have worried about losing their jobs.” He almost seemed about to use the timeworn widows and orphans cover story and beg Americans please not to unplug Granny from her life support system in the nursing home. We need to preserve the value of her stocks, and help everyone retire happily by restoring normal Wall Street financial engineering to make voters rich again.

European executives who steered their banks into the debt iceberg have been fired. England wiped out shareholders in Northern Rock last summer, and more recently Bradford and Bingley. But in America the culprits get to stay on. No bank stockholders are being wiped out here, despite the negative equity into which the worst risk-taking banks have fallen or the prosecutions brought against them for predatory lending, consumer fraud and related wrongdoing.

Government aid will be used to pay exorbitant salaries to the executives who drove these banks into insolvency. “Institutions that sell shares to the government will accept restrictions on executive compensation, including a clawback provision and a ban on golden parachutes,” Paulson pretended – only to qualify it by saying that the rule would apply only “during the period that Treasury holds equity issued through this program.” The executives can stay on and give themselves the usual retirement gifts after all, prompting Democratic Congressman Barney Frank to complain about how weak the Treasury restrictions are. “Compensation experts say that the provisions, though politically prudent to appease public anger, will probably have little real impact on how financial executives are paid in coming years. They predict banks will simply pay higher taxes and will find other creative ways of paying their executives as they see fit. Some say there could even be a sudden surge in compensation as soon as the government program ends, in a few years, leading to eye-popping numbers down the road. … When Congress limited the tax deductibility of cash salaries to $1 million, for example, it simply led to an explosion in stock options used as compensation and even higher total payouts.”

And speaking of stock options, the government shortchanged itself here too, despite its promises to ensure that it will shares in the gains when banks recover. Senator Schumer went so far as to assure voters that “under any capital injection plan that Treasury pursues, dividends must be eliminated, executive compensation must be constrained, and normal banking activities must be emphasized.” This was mostly hot air. England and other countries have insisted that banks not pay dividends until the government is reimbursed. The idea is to avoid using public money to pay dividends to existing shareholders and continued exorbitant salaries to their mismanagers! But the terms of the U.S. bailout is made simply call for banks not increase their dividend payouts – a policy they most likely would follow in any case in view of their earnings crunch.

Schumer verged on the ridiculous when he proclaimed: “We must operate in the same way any significant investor operates in these situations – when Warren Buffett invested in Goldman Sachs and General Electric in recent weeks, he demanded strict, but not onerous terms. The government must be similarly protective of taxpayer interests.” But Buffett obtained a much better deal for his $5 billion investment in Goldman Sachs, including warrants to buy its stock at a price below the going price when he helped rescue the company. Likewise in England, the government took stock ownership at low prices before the bailout, not at higher prices after it! But instead of exercising its warrants at the depressed prices where bank stocks stood at the time Paulson detailed the bailout terms, the U.S. Treasury would be able to exercise its warrants (equal to 15 percent of its investment) only at prices that were to be set after the banks had time to recover with the Treasury’s aid. Existing stockholders thus will benefit more than the government – which is why bank stocks soared on news of the bailout’s terms. So the government does not appear to be a good bargainer in the public interest. In fact, Paulson may be guilty of deliberate scuttling of the public interest that, as Treasury Secretary, he is supposed to defend.

Given his financial experience, Paulson had to know how deceptive his promise was in placing such emphasis on the government’s stock options, the sweetener that has made so many executives fabulously wealthy: “taxpayers will not only own shares that should be paid back with a reasonable return, but also will receive warrants for common shares in participating institutions,” he explained. But the “reasonable return” is only 5 per cent annually, just above what the government typically has to pay, not a rate reflecting anything like what the “free market” now charges Wall Street firms with negative equity. The government’s $250 billion in preferred stock will carry a dividend that rises to 9 per cent after five years, with no limit on how long the loan may be outstanding.

All I can say is, Wow! If only homeowners could get a similar break: a reduction in their interest rate to just 5 per cent, rising to a penalty rate of just 9 per cent – without the heavy penalties and late fees that Countrywide/Bank of America charges! By contrast, German banks that receive a public rescue will pay “a fee of at least 2 per cent annually of the amount guaranteed. The U.K. will charge 0.50 per cent plus the cost of default insurance on a bank's debt.”A British banker wrote to me that “the government offers 12 per cent preference shares, and ordinary shares at an absolutely huge discount to asset value to provide the cash.” But the U.S. Government agreed to exercise its stock options at the post-bailout price, not the price prior to rescue. It even gives up most of these options if the banks do repay the Treasury’s loan. On the excuse of encouraging private Wall Street investors to replace government “ownership” and “intrusion” into the marketplace, banks can “cut in half the number of common shares the government will eventually be able to purchase. That can be done if a bank sells stock by the end of 2009, and raises at least as much cash as the government is investing.”

These bailout terms suggest that what Wall Street wants is pretty much what colonialist Britain achieved for so many years in India and Africa: puppet leaders with an imperial political advisor, in America’s case a Secretary of the Treasury and a vice-regent as head of the Federal Reserve System. But what the rest of the economy needs is a genuinely free leader able to impose better and more equitable laws to write down debt, not build it up and bail out more bad loans. Within the present administration itself, Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, complained in a Wall Street Journal interview that she didn’t understand “Why there’s been such a political focus on making sure we’re not unduly helping borrowers but then we’re providing all this massive assistance at the institutional level.” She “described painstaking efforts made by lawmakers in crafting the federal Hope for Homeowners program to make sure it limited resale profits for borrowers who received affordable home loans,” by giving the government a share of the rising sales price.

The imbalance between creditor demands and debtors’ ability to pay is indeed the problem. Paulson claimed in his Monday address that he needed to get to the root of the economic problem. But in his view it is simply that the banks “are not positioned to lend as widely as is necessary to support our economy. Our goal is to see … that they can make more loans to businesses and consumers across the nation.” As he explained in his Financial Times interview, “for the first time you have seen an action that is systematic, that is getting at the root causes” of the financial crisis. But his perspective is remarkably narrow. It denies that the problem is debt above and beyond the ability of the economy at large to pay, and higher than the market price of property and assets pledged as collateral.

Creating a system for the banks to “earn their way out of debt” means creating yet more interest-bearing debt for the economy at large. Mortgage loans are what is supposed to restore high housing prices and office costs – precisely what caused the debt meltdown in the first place. Despite Paulson’s and Ms. Bair’s characterization of the present crisis as merely a liquidity problem, it is really a debt problem. The volume of real estate debt, auto debt, student loans, bank debt, pension debts by municipalities and states as well as private companies exceed their ability to pay.

Shortly after Paulson’s Monday speech a Dutch economics professor, Dirk Bezemer, wrote me that: “In my thinking I liken it to a Ponzi game where in the final stages the only way to keep things going a bit longer is to pump in more liquidity. That is a solution in the sense that it restores calm, but only in the short run. This is what we now see happening and – despite the 10 per cent stock market rally today – I am still bracing myself for the inevitable end of the Ponzi game – suddenly or as a long drawn out debt deflation.” He went on to explain what he and other associates of mine have been saying for many years now: “The actual solution is to separate the Ponzi from the non-Ponzi economy and let the pain be suffered in the first part so as to salvage what we can from the second. This means bailing out homeowners but not investment banks, etc. The qualification to this general approach is that those Ponzi game players whose demise is a real ‘system threat’ need support, but only with punitive conditionalities attached. And just like Third World countries, they won’t have a choice.

The problem of “debt pollution” is being “solved” by creating yet more debt, not by reducing its volume. Neither the Treasury nor Congress is helping to resolve this problem. The working assumption is that giving newly created government debt to the banks and Wall Street will lead to more lending to re-inflate the real estate and stock markets. But who will lend more to the one-sixth of U.S. homes already said to have fallen into negative equity territory? As debt deflation eats into the domestic market for goods and services, corporate sales and earnings will shrink, dragging down stock prices. Wall Street is in control, but its policies are so shortsighted that they are eroding the underlying economy – which is passing from democracy to oligarchy, and indeed it seems to a bipartisan financial kleptocracy.

Michael Hudson is a former Wall Street economist He was Dennis Kucinich’s Chief Economic Advisor in the recent Democratic primary presidential campaign, and has advised the U.S., Canadian, Mexican and Latvian governments, as well as the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR). A Distinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC), he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (new ed., Pluto Press, 2002) He can be reached via his website, [e-mail]

[Roland99]

51. First time I've heard someone bring this point up:

Here’s why the plan for the government to recover the money is whistling in the dark: It calls for banks to “earn their way out of debt” by selling more of their product – credit, that is, debt. Homeowners and other consumers, students and car buyers, credit card users and their employers – the “taxpayers” supposed to be helped – are to pay the repayment money to the banks, instead of using it to purchase goods and services. If they charge only 6 per cent per year, they will extract $93 billion in interest charges – $42 billion to pay the Treasury for its $700 billion, and another $51 billion for the Federal Reserve’s $850 billion in “cash for trash” loans.

BTW, where did you find a copy of the transcript?


n/m...found it here:
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson10202008.html

MP3 here:
http://www.michael-hudson.com/audio/081009newKleptocracy.mp3

YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFwsKk0Fe3Y

[Demeter]

61. Real Change Depends on Stopping the Bailout Profiteers By Naomi Klein

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Real-Change-Depends-on-Sto-by-Naomi-Klein-081104-980.html

To understand the meaning of the U.S. election results, it is worth looking back to the moment when everything changed for the Obama campaign. It was, without question, the moment when the economic crisis hit Wall Street.

Up to that point, things weren't looking all that good for Barack Obama. The Democratic National Convention barely delivered a bump, while the appointment of Sarah Palin seemed to have shifted the momentum decisively over to John McCain.

Then, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed, followed by insurance giant AIG, then Lehman Brothers. It was in this moment of economic vertigo that Obama found a new language. With tremendous clarity, he turned his campaign into a referendum into the deregulation and trickle down policies that have dominated mainstream economic discourse since Ronald Reagan. He said his opponent represented more of the same while he stood for a new direction, one that would rebuild the economy from the ground up, rather than the top down. Obama stayed on this message for the rest of the campaign and, as we just saw, it worked.

The question is now whether Obama will have the courage to take the ideas that won him this election and turn them into policy. Or, alternately, whether he will use the financial crisis to rationalize a move to what pundits call "the middle" (if there is one thing this election has proved, it is that the real middle is far to the left of its previously advertised address). Predictably, Obama is already coming under enormous pressure to break his election promises, particularly those relating to raising taxes on the wealthy and imposing real environmental regulations on polluters. All day on the business networks, we hear that, in light of the economic crisis, corporations need lower taxes, and fewer regulations - in other words, more of the same.

The new president's only hope of resisting this campaign being waged by the elites is if the remarkable grassroots movement that carried him to victory can somehow stay energized, networked, mobilized - and most of all, critical. Now that the election has been won, this movement's new mission should be clear: loudly holding Obama to his campaign promises, and letting the Democrats know that there will be consequences for betrayal.

The first order of business - and one that cannot wait until inauguration - must be halting the robbery-in-progress known as the "economic bailout." I have spent the past month examining the loopholes and conflicts of interest embedded in the U.S. Treasury Department's plans. The results of that research can be found in a just published feature article in Rolling Stone, The Bailout Profiteers as well as my most recent Nation column, Bush's Final Pillage.

Both these pieces argue that the $700-billion "rescue plan" should be regarded as the Bush Administration's final heist. Not only does it transfer billions of dollars of public wealth into the hands of politically connected corporations (a Bush specialty), but it passes on such an enormous debt burden to the next administration that it will make real investments in green infrastructure and universal health care close to impossible. If this final looting is not stopped (and yes, there is still time), we can forget about Obama making good on the more progressive aspects of his campaign platform, let alone the hope that he will offer the country some kind of grand Green New Deal.

Readers of The Shock Doctrine know that terrible thefts have a habit of taking place during periods of dramatic political transition. When societies are changing quickly, the media and the people are naturally focused on big "P" politics - who gets the top appointments, what was said in the most recent speech. Meanwhile, safe from public scrutiny, far reaching pro-corporate policies are locked into place, dramatically restricting future possibilities for real change.

It's not too late to halt the robbery in progress, but it cannot wait until inauguration. Several great initiatives to shift the nature of the bailout are already underway, including bailoutmainstreet.com. I added my name to the "Call to Action: Time for a 21st Century Green America" and invite you to do the same.

Stopping the bailout profiteers is about more than money. It is about democracy. Specifically, it is about whether Americans will be able to afford the change they have just voted for so conclusively.

Crossposted from huffingtonpost.com





Authors Website: http://www.naomiklein.org

Authors Bio: Naomi Klein is the author of The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, now out in paperback. To read all her latest writing visit www.naomiklein.org

[Roland99]

35. Wait wait wait...is that $550 billion IN ADDITION to what's been borrowed in the last month?

EGADZOOKS!!

[ozymandius]

5. Toyota hacks forecasts as U.S. carmakers seek help

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp, the world's No.1 automaker, warned operating profits will sink to a 13-year low this year, as other carmakers sought more state help to ride out a financial crisis that is crippling demand and squeezing credit around the globe.

After a week of profit warnings from six of the seven other Japanese car makers, industry watchers had braced for similar pain at Toyota -- until recently the envy of the sector with eight straight years of profit growth.

But a 63 percent cut in forecast operating profit, to 600 billion yen ($6.1 billion), was far beyond the most pessimistic prediction -- and would be Toyota's lowest profit since 1995/96, and down 74 percent from a record 2.2 trillion yen last year.

...

General Motors Corp warned this week that the industry's prospects are dwindling fast as a "near collapse" in demand for cars accelerates the pace of cash burn.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4A52V020081106

[ozymandius]

6. Volcker would be solid Treasury candidate: Stiglitz

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz said on Wednesday that former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker would be "the kind of person" suited to be Treasury Secretary in the incoming Obama administration.

Volcker, one of President-elect Barack Obama's principle economic advisers, has the deep knowledge that financial markets would need to restore confidence and boost activity hit by the 14-month-old credit crisis, Stiglitz said.

"I think Paul Volcker has been speaking out very clearly on what needs to be done," he told Reuters at a post-election panel.

Investors and analysts have made up a short list for what is seen as one of the most important roles in the administration given the tumultuous economic and financial environment. The list includes Volcker, Bill Clinton's Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and Tim Geithner, President of the Federal Reserve of New York.

http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSTRE4A513U20081106

---

I support this move to put Volker at Treasury. His intellect is of amazing caliber. I suspect that, due to his age, he would probably retire after the mid-terms. During his tenure though - Volker would speak quite bluntly on issues of policy. That is where he is a lightning rod for criticism. Volker speaks his mind.

[Dr.Phool]

18. I agree. Last night Larry Summers' name was being floated around,

Which in my opinion would be a terrible choice.

[Roland99]

34. Agreed. I did a double-take when I saw Summers' name on the screen.

I'd rather have Paul O'Neill back than him.

[Imperialism Inc.]

40. I've been pushing Sheila Bair based on an article by Robert Kutner.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4385282&mesg_id=4385282

I do like Volker too though.

[ozymandius]

7. Schadenfreude, anyone?

News Corp. Falls as Ad Drop Cuts 2009 Profit Forecast (Update1)

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- News Corp., the media company controlled by Rupert Murdoch, plunged the most in Sydney trading since the 1987 stock market crash after cutting its 2009 profit forecast because of shrinking ad sales at its Fox stations and newspapers.

News Corp. sank A$3.40, or 21 percent, to close at A$12.50, the biggest decline since Oct. 20, 1987. In New York, the Class A shares lost 12 percent in extended trading.

Fiscal 2009 profit will drop in the ``low to mid teens'' in percentage terms, New York-based News Corp. said on a conference call after the U.S. stock market closed, citing falling advertising sales and the stronger dollar. The company previously forecast a gain of 4 percent to 6 percent.

...

Total TV revenue, including the Fox network, fell 15 percent to $974 million, as automakers cut spending 40 percent and the network lost viewers to NBC's Olympics coverage. Fox will finish the current television season as the most-watched U.S. network, President Peter Chernin said, citing the return of shows including ``24'' and ``American Idol.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aF3kMeBJbmtE&refer=australia

[ozymandius]

8. Not enough schadenfreude? How about this?

Lehman Chief Fuld `Terminated' by Bankrupt Company (Update3)

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, who received $34.4 million in pay in 2007, will be ``terminated'' by the bankrupt company without any bonus, said a lawyer for Lehman.

``His employment will end at the end of the year,'' Harvey Miller, Lehman's lead bankruptcy lawyer, of Weil, Gotshal & Manges, said today during a break at a hearing in federal court in Manhattan. ``He is being terminated. He will receive no severance or bonuses.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akhHgz.Nk0Ys&refer=home

---

The executive council offers no bonus or severance package. However, I'll bet the rank-and-file would be happy to come up with a few ideas, duly administered.

[Dr.Phool]

15. How's about one of them "French Revolution Severance Packages"?

[Demeter]

20. I'm Never Going to LIve That One Down, Am I?

Still, if the tumbril fits.....

[Dr.Phool]

23. When you come up with a great line like that.

It deserves an occasional visit.

And maybe a space in Bartlett's Quotations.

:hi: :thumbsup: :hi:

[AnneD]

75. I love the idea...

of a French revolution severance package.

[ozymandius]

9. Citigroup, Goldman Said to Begin Eliminating Jobs (Update1)

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., faced with a weakening economy and the prospect of mounting losses, began firing workers as part of the firms' plans to cut more than 12,000 jobs, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Goldman, which converted last month from the biggest U.S. securities firm into a commercial bank, yesterday began telling about 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, they were out of a job, according to one of the people who declined to be identified because the decisions were confidential.

Citigroup has been notifying staff this week who are affected by the bank's plan to discard 9,100 positions over the next 12 months, or about 2.6 percent of its headcount, another person said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aysPWk5McSco

[ozymandius]

10. BOJ Helpless as Yen Rises on Carry, UBS, Barclays Say (Update1)

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan may be powerless to prevent the yen from rising to a 13-year high, according to the world's biggest foreign-exchange traders.

Deutsche Bank AG, UBS AG and Barclays Plc predict the yen will recover from its steepest weekly decline since 1999 as investors reduce carry trades that fund purchases of higher- yielding assets by borrowing in Japan. The currency will appreciate to 90 per dollar from 97.74 today in Tokyo even if the Bank of Japan intervenes to stem the biggest annual gain since 1998, they said.

....

The yen's real effective exchange rate, a measure of its value against 15 of Japan's trading partners, rose 11.2 percent in October, the biggest gain since the Bank of Japan started the index in 1970.

....

Carry trades grew during the past five years, driving the yen to 124.13 in June 2007, as central banks increased interest rates to fight inflation while Japan kept its key rate at 0.5 percent. Investors borrowing in the yen could sell the currency and profit by buying assets in Australia, where policy makers raised benchmark borrowing costs as high as 7.25 percent in March from 4.25 percent in 2002.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aykUGI_BDLbo&refer=exclusive

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

11. K&R. nt

[ozymandius]

12. Credit Card Bond Sales at Zero, First Time Since 1993

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15 years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.

A weakening job market and a looming recession are making it harder for consumers to make monthly payments, eroding confidence among investors about the safety of credit-card-backed bonds. It's the first month since April 1993 that there have been no sales, according to Wachovia Corp. data. Issuers sold $17.1 billion of the debt in October 2007, the data show.

Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years traded at a gap, or spread, of 475 basis points over the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, during the week ended Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show, 25 basis points higher than the previous week. The debt was trading at 50 basis points more than Libor in January.

The higher cost to sell the bonds makes it more expensive for banks and credit card companies to fund loans to customers. New York-based American Express Co. paid 160 basis points more than Libor at a Sept. 11 sale of the securities compared with 30 basis points over the benchmark at a similar sale in October 2007, Bloomberg data show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=awS5vZQvmwd4&refer=exclusive

[ozymandius]

13. Zell Miller was right — sort of

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/zell-miller-was-right-sort-of/

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

That's my former (now disgraceful and senile) governor.

[ozymandius]

14. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I have to get to work. Be well.

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

44. Ceci c'est pas une pipe. n/t

[Dr.Phool]

19. A dyslexic prophet!

He just calls 'em like he see's em. Backwards.

[Roland99]

24. Sweet!

[Festivito]

16. Debt: 11/04/2008 10,566,146,196,490.50 (UP 9,968,448,445.30) (Just FICA.)

(FICA dropped yesterday, today up half of that drop.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,302,535,948,012.36 + 4,263,610,248,478.22
UP 314,469,904.16 + UP 9,653,978,541.21
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 18,089,389,966.26.
The average for the last 30 days would be 12,662,572,976.38.
The average for the last 32 days would be 11,871,162,165.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 24 reports in 35 days of FY2009 averaging 22.56B$ per report, 15.47B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 77 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/04/2008 10,566,146,196,490.50 GWB (UP 4,837,950,400,308.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 541,421,299,578.10 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $901,514,393,231.43 in last 47 days.
That's 902B$ in 47 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 89% of that highest year ever only in 47 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 47 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3584504&mesg_id=3584534

[Festivito]

82. Debt: 11/05/2008 10,566,870,637,263.30 (UP 724,440,772.80) (Up a little.)

(Almost two weeks since the 700B$ borrowing spree. Only one day of high borrowing. Rest was small potatoes.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,302,458,417,616.34 + 4,264,412,219,647.01
DOWN 77,530,396.02 + UP 801,971,168.79
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 17,300,074,093.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 12,686,721,002.14.
The average for the last 33 days would be 11,533,382,729.22.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 25 reports in 36 days of FY2009 averaging 21.69B$ per report, 15.06B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 76 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/05/2008 10,566,870,637,263.30 GWB (UP 4,838,674,841,081.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 542,145,740,350.90 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $902,238,834,004.23 in last 48 days.
That's 902B$ in 48 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 89% of that highest year ever only in 48 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 48 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3586480&mesg_id=3586524

[Dr.Phool]

17. ArcelorMittal plans more production cutbacks.

ArcelorMittal plans more production cutbacks
Posted by Sarah Hollander/The Plain Dealer November 05, 2008 18:40PM
Categories: Breaking News, Manufacturing, Real Time News

ArcleorMittal, which last month shut down its two Cleveland blast furnaces as part of a plan to cut global steel production by 15 percent worldwide, said Wednesday the cutback will now be more than 30 percent.

The cuts are expected to remain in place at least until early next year, the company said, citing the steel market's abrupt and dramatic decline.

ArcelorMittal's gloomy predictions for the end of the year contrasted with its report Wednesday of a profitable third quarter. Cleveland union employees plan to collect their profit-sharing checks next week.

Cleveland's production won't be affected by the new plans, said Mark Granakis, president of United Steelworkers Local 979.

"Since we're not making any steel, you can't be any less than zero," he said.

The furnaces will remain down at least through the end of the year, and probably into early 2009, Granakis said.

About 70 employees have signed up for voluntary, partial-pay layoffs this week and next, he said. So far, there is no word of forced job cuts.

An ArcelorMittal spokeswoman declined to comment on specific plans for Cleveland.

"We are confident that the situation will improve in the medium to long term," Katie Patterson said in a written statement.

Lakshmi Mittal, chairman and chief executive of ArcelorMittal, said in a conference call Wednesday that the magnitude and reach of the financial crisis surprised him.

(snip)
http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/11/arcelormittal_plans_more_produ.html

[Demeter]

21. To what extent are the markets rigged? By Richard Clark

http://www.opednews.com/articles/To-what-extent-are-the-mar-by-Richard-Clark-081104-663.html


Welcome to the behind-the-scenes world of The Plunge Protection Team


“The Dow is a dead banana republic dictator in full military uniform propped up in the castle window with a mechanical lever moving the cadaver’s arm, waving to the Wall Street crowd.”

– Michael Bolser, Le Metropole Cafe

The Plunge Protection Team is formally called the Working Group on Financial Markets (WGFM) and was created by President Reagan’s Executive Order 12631 in 1988 in response to the October 1987 stock market crash. The WGFM includes the President, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its stated purpose is to enhance “the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and investor confidence.” According to the Order:

“To the extent permitted by law and subject to the availability of funds therefore, the Department of the Treasury shall provide the Working Group with such administrative and support services as may be necessary for the performance of its functions.”

In short, taxpayer money is being made available to manipulate markets. The shady history of the PPT was tracked by journalist John Crudele in a June 2006 New York Post series, in which he wrote:

“Back during a stock market crisis in 1989, a guy named Robert Heller – who had just left the Federal Reserve Board – suggested that the government rig the stock market in times of dire emergency. . . . He didn’t use the word ‘rig’ but that’s what he meant. Proposed as an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, it’s a seminal argument that says when a crisis occurs on Wall Street ‘instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thus stabilizing the market as a whole.’”

The PPT was to be the Roman circus of the twenty-first century, distracting the masses with pretensions of prosperity. Instead of fixing the problem in the economy, the PPT could just “fix” the investment casino. Crudele continued:

“Over the next few years . . . whenever the stock market was in trouble someone seemed to ride to the rescue. . . . Often it appeared to be Goldman Sachs, which just happens to be where Paulson and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin worked.”

For obvious reasons, the mechanism by which the PPT has ridden to the rescue is not detailed on the Fed’s website; but some analysts think they know. An antitrust group called GATA (the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) has been tracking the PPT’s moves for many years. Michael Bolser of GATA concluded in 2004 that PPT money is being funneled through the Fed’s “primary dealers,” a group of favored Wall Street brokerage firms and investment banks. The device used is a form of loan called a “repurchase agreement” or “repo,” which is a contract for the sale and future repurchase of Treasury securities. Bolser explained:

“It may sound odd, but the Fed occasionally gives money <‘permanent’ repos> to its primary dealers (a list of about thirty financial houses, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, etc). They never have to pay this free money back; thus the primary dealers will pretty much do whatever the Fed asks if they want to stay in the primary dealers ‘club.’

“The exact mechanism of repo use to support the DOW is simple. The primary dealers get repos in the morning issuance . . . and then buy DOW index futures (a market that is far smaller than the open DOW trading volume). These futures prices then drive the DOW itself because the larger population of investors think the ‘insider’ futures buyers have access to special information and are ‘ahead’ of the market. Of course they don’t have special information . . . only special money in the form of repos.”


With Paulson’s new $700 billion credit card, the PPT obviously has access to much more money than in 2004 – enough money, no doubt, to buy large blocks of some key stocks. Those purchases, in turn, would trigger the program traders’ computers, which follow like robots according to pre-set formulae. Although thousands of stocks are publicly traded, only 30 stocks compose the Dow, making this trend-setting index fairly easy to manipulate.


http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/stepfordville.php








Authors Website: http://groups.google.com/groups/profile?enc_user=JCpLDBUAAAC

Authors Bio: Several years after receiving my M.A. in social science (interdisciplinary studies) I was an instructor at S.F. State University for a year, but then went back to designing automated machinery, and then tech writing, in Silicon Valley. I've always been more interested in political economics and what's going on behind the scenes in politics, than in mechanical engineering, and because of that I've rarely worked more than 6 months a year, devoting much of the rest of the year to reading and writing about that which interests me most.

[Roland99]

30. Thanks, Demeter!

[Hugin]

39. This is definitely in the SMW Must Read category.

Thanks Demeter.

[UpInArms]

25. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.311 Change +0.440 (+0.57%)

BoE Cuts Rates by 150 bps, SNB Surprises With 50 bps Cut, ECB to Follow

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/BoE_Cuts_Rates_By_1_00_1225974503271.html

The BoE Cut rates by 150 bps surprising markets that were expecting a 50 bps reduction. The Pound would fall on the news but quickly retraced as forex traders viewed this as a positive for the U.K. economy. The SNB also announced a 50 bps point cut in its Libor target range which surprised markets as there wasn’t a scheduled policy meeting, the USDCHF jumped nearly 100 pips on the news. The ECB is next to follow which is turning out to be a coordinated reduction by the European central banks. The SNB said in a statement that the global economic outlook has deteriorated more severely than anticipated, which will have an impact on the Swiss economy.

The BoE’s recent concerns of inflation have reversed to deflation as the central bank stated that the aggressive cut was needed to ensure that inflation remained at the 2% target. The move could signal that the U.K. economy may be headed into a deep recession and that further easing will follow with the possibility that that the BoE will need to follow the Fed and bring rates as low as 1.00%. The NIESR GDP estimate came in at -0.5% which signals that the U.K. economy is already in a recession and further easing is expected from the central bank. The U.K. housing market continued to slump as home prices according to HBOS fell 2.2% in October and 13.7% on an annualized basis- which is the lowest level on record. The credit crunch delivered a major blow to an already slumping market which will be a determining factor in future policy decisions.

The expected ECB rate cut may add to the recent weakness of the Euro as the single currency has fallen below 1.2890 after reaching as high as 1.3100 yesterday. A dismal German factory order report has added weight to the EURUSD as demand fell 8.0% in September, which was the largest drop on record. Declining demand for machinery led the drop which doesn’t bode well for future business as companies are cutting back on capital expenditures. The results are troubling because the impact of the frozen credit market in October are yet to be realized and may lead to a steep drop in new orders which only strengthens the argument that a prolonged recession is underway. Therefore, all eyes will be on President Trichet’s remarks today as many expect the central bank leader to signal further easing from the MPC, which could sink the Euro.

The weekly jobless claims report is the only significant event risk on the U.S. calendar with another week above 450,000 expected. The report will add to the already dour outlook for the U.S. labor market as ADP reported yesterday that private payrolls were reduced by 157,000 in October. This doesn’t bode well for the upcoming NFP report which may have forex traders start to price in another month of job losses which could weigh on the dollar. However, the story of the day will be the rate cuts by the BoE and ECB which could lend dollar support over the near-term as the interest rate differential is expected to continue to decline as European policy leaders are expected to continue easing further. However, there has been a train of thought that the rate cuts could improve the outlook for the global economy and lead to a rebound in risk appetite. Global equity markets have traded lower all day and with Dow futures pointing to a lower open risk aversion remains strong which may continue being a supportive factor for the dollar due to its safe haven status.

...more...

Forex Majors Position to Challenge the US Dollar (Fibonacci Weekly)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Forex_Majors_Position_to_Challenge_1225970759772.html



EUR/USD

Strategy: Pending Short.

The Euro looks set for a bullish retracement having declined over 13% since the last upward correction in mid-September. Bearish momentum had developed into a Falling Wedge reversal formation confirmed by positive divergence with the RSI oscillator and has now apparently broken above resistance. The Fibonacci zone looms ahead, with the first layer of resistance at 1.3306, the 38.2% retracement of the 09/22-10/27 decline. We will look for an upswing to establish resistance below the downward sloping trend line stretching from the pair’s peak in July. From here, we will enter short to trade with the dominant long-term bearish trend.



...more...

[muriel_volestrangler]

26. Bank of England cuts interest rate from 4.5% to 3%

The Bank of England has cut interest rates in the UK by one-and-a-half percentage points to 3%, its lowest since 1955, in a shock move.
...
BBC economics editor Hugh Pym said: "The Bank of England is using terms like 'very marked deterioration in the outlook' and 'severe contraction'.

"It is clearly very concerned about the possibility of a prolonged recession in the UK.

"The risks of high inflation have now evaporated, and because the bank is worried that inflation will now fall well below its target, it has felt the need to come up with this cut, which is much bigger than expected."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7713006.stm

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. Eurozone rates lowered to 3.25%

The European Central Bank has lowered its eurozone interest rates to 3.25% in an attempt to prevent a recession.

The bank has reduced rates by half a percentage point from 3.75% amid increasing signs of slowing growth.

The ECB joined other central banks in cutting rates last month but some have argued that it has not acted swiftly enough to stem the growing crisis.
...
Some analysts had expected the ECB to make a sharper cut after the UK's dramatic reduction.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7712684.stm

[DemReadingDU]

29. The Fed as a central bank to the world

The Fed as a central bank to the world
Jacqueline Thorpe, Financial Post
Published: Sunday, November 02, 2008

Nicolas Sarkozy may be pushing for a new financial order but Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have beaten him to it.

While the French President dreams of global economic cooperation ahead of the G20 summit in Washington, the Fed is quietly becoming central bank to the world, backed by the full might of the U.S. Treasury and a teflon-coated greenback.

Last week saw a new program added to the barrage of bailouts, backstops and stimuli announced by the United States -- US$30-billion currency swap lines for Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore. This is on top of the unlimited supply of greenbacks the United States has provided to the major economies.

The United States will swap wons for greenbacks, allowing South Korean banks to fulfill local demand for U.S. dollars, which had been starved by the freeze-up in the inter-bank lending markets. Banks can then provide those greenbacks to their local customers to allow them to carry out international business.

In April, South Korea will swap its wons back, for a fee of course. David Rosenberg, chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch was quick to pick up on the irony. "The U.S. was supposedly the basket case nation with the massive deficits whose currency was destined to lose its reserve status and whose credit rating was going to get cut at some point," he said in a note last week. "It is the U.S. that is being called upon to provide unlimited swap lines with Europe one day, and funding for emerging markets the next."


The U.S. dollar's status as the main currency of international and central bank business has barely been tarnished by the whole sorry credit crisis. The flight to the perceived safety of U.S. treasuries has been unstinting.


Until the greenback falters, the United States is firmly in the driver's seat.

more...
http://www.financialpost.com/reports/credit-crunch/story.html?id=927271

[UpInArms]

33. Dana loss widens; will cut more jobs and shut more plants

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Dana-loss-widens-cut-more/story.aspx?guid=%7B575B14F9%2DF411%2D48FB%2D882A%2DCC616CBDA3A3%7D

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Dana Holding Corp., (DAN: 1.89, -0.34, -15.2%) the Toledo, Ohio, vehicle-parts supplier, reported a wider third-quarter net loss on 9.4% lower sales and increased a planned 2008 job cut to 5,000 from 3,000. "The combination of lower industry volumes and peaking steel prices hit us sharply this quarter," Executive Chairman John Devine said in a statement on Thursday. The loss widened to $271 million from $69 million. The loss available to common-stock holders widened to $279 million, or $2.79 a share, from $69 million, or 46 cents, in the year-earlier period. Shares outstanding fell 33% to 100 million. Sales fell to $1.93 billion from $2.13 billion. In addition to the larger job reduction, Dana said it would close 10 more plants in 2009 and 2010 as it sizes the company to match lower industry volumes. The company expects full-year 2008 sales of $8.2 billion. Dana emerged from bankruptcy proceedings on Jan. 31, 2008.

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. I am doing a quick fly by today. It will be another busy day for me and a bloody day for WS. The real business news to look for is what comes out of the transition team.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

37. IMF says global growth outlook has deteriorated

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/IMF-says-global-growth-outlook/story.aspx?guid=%7B883EE79A%2D77DC%2D4728%2DA14C%2D45F5C2EC4712%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The global growth outlook has weakened severely over the past month, researchers at the International Monetary Fund said Thursday. World output is now projected to enter a recession in 2009, with the advanced industrial economies contracting for the first time since World War II. The IMF called for global action to support financial markets and for fiscal and monetary policy actions to limit the downturn. Financial stress is looking deeper and more stubborn than only a month ago, the IMF said. Even more worrisome, the financial market disease seems more impervious than expected to policy measures so far.

[UpInArms]

38. ugly details:

46. IMF: Financial stress to last longer than previously thought
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

47. IMF: Emerging economies to slow, but grow 5% in '09
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

48. IMF sees recovery to begin late in 2009
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

49. IMF: Downturn comparable to 1975-1982 recessions
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

50. IMF: Advanced economies to contract in '09 first since WW II
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

51. IMF slashes growth forecast for 2009
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

52. IMF now forecasts global recession in 2009
9:00 AM ET, Nov 06, 2008

[DemReadingDU]

42. U.S. to urge G20 not to use crisis to thwart trade

11/5/08
U.S. President George W. Bush will urge Group of 20 leaders at a November 15 summit on the global economic crisis not to use it as an excuse for erecting trade barriers and scuttling free-market principles, senior Bush administration officials said Wednesday.

"This summit and this process is not about discarding market principles or moving to a single global regulator," a U.S. official said. "We believe there is little support in Europe or elsewhere for empowering a single global authority to regulate all of the world's financial markets."

The official said organizers of the summit, to take place at the White House with the Bush administration's status now officially that of lame duck, were consulting President-elect Barack Obama's team about the possibility of attending.

European officials portray the November 15 meeting, which brings key emerging-market countries like China, Brazil, India, South Korea and South Africa together with big industrial nations, as the beginning of a major overhaul of global financial architecture.

more...
http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed2/idUSTRE4A50MN20081106

[DemReadingDU]

41. Bloomberg: GM's `Time Is Very Short'

11/5/08 GM's `Time Is Very Short' for U.S. Aid, Altman Says

- General Motors Corp., hammered by the worst auto market in 25 years, needs U.S. aid because ``time is very short'' to stop its collapse, says Roger Altman, the former Treasury official advising GM in merger talks with Chrysler LLC.

With the government offering a $700 billion rescue for banks, it should have enough to assist GM, Chrysler and Ford Motor Co., Altman, 62, said in an interview. Altman, now chief executive officer of Evercore Partners Inc., helped with the 1979 Chrysler bailout plan as an assistant Treasury secretary.

``The consequences of a collapse by GM or all three would be very severe,'' he said. ``The impact would be widespread,'' with jobs lost by the companies and their suppliers.

The completion of yesterday's U.S. elections gives GM and other automakers a chance to renew their case for aid with President-elect Barack Obama, who said last week that helping the industry would be a top priority.

One or more automaker failures ``would be a difficult way for a brand-new administration'' to take office, said Altman, an Obama supporter whose Treasury Department service also included working as deputy secretary under President Bill Clinton.


A collapse of three U.S. automakers in 2009 would cost almost 3 million jobs in the first year and reduce personal income by $150.7 billion, according to a study released today by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan.


more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSc56MIykTVk&refer=home

[UpInArms]

43. Obama, Broke Now, And More Broke Every Day: Credit Default Swaps On US Debt

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/obama-broker-no.html

There is not a man with a typewriter who can avoid writing about how much debt the US government has and how much more it will have to take on. Paulson's program will put $700 billion more on the "red" side of the ledger. The deficit for the federal government's fiscal year will be well in excess of $1 trillion. If tax income drops due to the recession, that number may turn out to be the hope of the damned.

The conclusion most people draw from all of that exhausting economic thinking is that the new president will not have any money to fix things and keep those things fixed that were already fixed over the last decade. No one needs a new headline. Just copy it from the next guy. "Obama's Hands Are Tied".

But, they are not idle hands. Whether citizens view him as a free-spending radical who just wants to drain the checking accounts of the rich or just another guy elected president during another crisis, some expensive problems will not go unaddressed.

Treasury already has its big chunk of capital and it has no reason to part with that. Banks will get some. Perhaps insurance companies. If credit card defaults and LBO failures keep going up, they will join a continuing drop in the housing market as a reason that $700 billion may not be enough.

The most admired analysts covering the car industry, The Center for Automotive Research, recently reported that a collapse of the US auto world would kill three million jobs. That would take unemployment to 8% even if no one else in America lost a job. It would damage personal income by nearly $300 billion.

A walk around other large industries such as retail and airlines would yield equally dismal data. Without an unimaginable amount of money put into the private sector, the economy could go into a 2009 version of The Great Depression. The public is against that, but it is well to remember that a year ago most economists thought the US would avoid a recession. What 2008 has proved is that economists are no more accurate than the TV weatherman. They just get paid less.

On the back of an envelope, it is entirely possible to make the case that the federal government could ring up a $3 trillion deficit over the next two years. Since that has never been done before, it is impossible to predict the side-effects. Nausea and dizziness are probably listed on the label. And, if the arousal lasts more than four hours, call a doctor.

...more...

[Demeter]

57. On the Other Hand, If Bush Can Give $700billion and More to His Buddies

We can afford universal, single-payer health care. NOT insurance, but actual services.

[antigop]

45. TPM: Four or five independent reasons NOT to appoint Larry Summers as Treasury Secretary

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/243197.php

Entire entry:

Am I missing something or are there like four or five completely independent reasons not to appoint Larry Summers Treasury Secretary? I'm really having a hard time understanding this one.

Just at the level of optics, since the economy is issue number one right now (and not just the real economy of jobs and living standards but the financial architecture itself) and you're trying to look forward not back, why would you pick someone for Treasury who was not only in the Clinton administration but was actually Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration. Not understanding that.

Next, management shortcomings and controversial statements about women's brains that got him canned as President of Harvard.

And on top of that, the new Treasury Secretary will be charged with instituting a beefed up framework of financial sector regulation. But Summers was a key player in the 1990s deregulatory consensus that laid the groundwork for a lot of these problems. Not that that makes him verboten -- a lot of other people did too. But it does create an element of of cognitive dissonance going into the job.

I'm not sure any of these strikes against would be determinative in themselves. Perhaps each taken together would not be if the crisis of the moment demanded Summers. But is he really the only one available?

I don't mean that in a snarky or denigrating sense. Clearly, Summers is an extremely bright and accomplished guy and a highly respected economist. But really, he's the only person with the economist chops and political instincts to manage this arduous task?

[antigop]

46. WSJ: 401(k) Plans Face Disparity Issue

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122592774008802983.html

As cash-strapped workers curb their 401(k) contributions, more employers could be forced to limit or refund the retirement-plan contributions of higher earners to meet federal nondiscrimination rules.

Federal rules require that 401(k) plans not favor highly compensated employees, those earning more than $105,000 in 2008. While some companies routinely confront this issue, more businesses are expected to encounter the problem as layoffs and higher living expenses reduce what rank-and-file workers can afford to save in their 401(k) plans.

Jan Jacobson, senior counsel, retirement policy, for the American Benefits Council, a Washington, D.C., trade association, says companies are required to test the plans annually to ensure that they are meeting certain requirements. The basic rule, she says, is that higher wage earners can't contribute more than two percentage points more of their salaries than lower wage earners. For example, if highly compensated workers defer 6% of their wages and lower earners save only 2% of their wages, the plan would fail the nondiscrimination test.

The problem is expected to become more widespread as more rank-and-file workers are laid off or are forced to trim 401(k) contributions as prices for food and energy creep higher. A survey of baby boomers released in May by AARP found that 33% have "stopped putting money in a 401(k), IRA or other retirement account."

[Demeter]

47. Please Tell Me I Heard Wrong

Please tell me that Obama ISN'T going to reappoint Paulson.

[Imperialism Inc.]

48. That was just a rumor a while back. Paulson is leaving in January.

[Demeter]

50. Let's Hope So

[CountAllVotes]

52. Paulson inferred he did not want to continue on as Treasury Secretary

this was a couple of weeks ago when he was making one of his statements. He said he was going to help with the transition for the new Treasury Secretary.

:dem: :kick:

[antigop]

49. Will GE, Caterpillar, and Deere be part of the Treasury program?

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/5ad0d53fbea1bfa5aa00c38e15c9d1de.htm

Scott Talbot, senior vice president for government affairs with the Financial Services Round Table, an industry group, said it makes sense for firms like life insurers, auto finance units and GE Capital, which have direct lending relationships, to be included in the program because they are the ones that can help restore liquidity.

Companies that finance customer purchases of their own products are strong candidates for government help because of the immediate impact their liquidity could have on the economy, he said.

In addition to GE, auto giant General Motors and heavy equipment manufacturers Caterpillar Inc. in Peoria, Ill., and John Deere in Moline, Ill. all have such finance units.

"One size doesn't fit all," Talbot said. "Congress gave Treasury broad authority, so Treasury is looking at all tools they can use and trying to apply them to the multiple different corporate structures that are out there."

[Roland99]

54. Trickle Down Bailout Bill.

wheeeeee!!

[Roland99]

56. 1:53pm - Faeries/PPT/WGFM/whatever don't seem to care anymore

DJIA 8,694.20 -445.07 -4.87%
Nasdaq 1,613.29 -68.35 -4.06%
S&P 500 905.15 -47.62 -5.00%
Dow Util 353.67 -20.52 -5.48%
NYSE 5,662.23 -349.94 -5.82%
AMEX 1,385.03 -67.51 -4.65%
Russell 2000 498.49 -16.15 -3.14%
Semcond 219.92 -16.33 -6.91%
Gold future 730.50 -11.90 -1.60%
30-Year Bond 4.20% +0.04 +0.99%
10-Year Bond 3.69% -0.00 -0.05%

[Demeter]

59. Faeries Hibernate, Doncha Know

First sign of a comeuppance, they go to sleep for a few years.

[UpInArms]

58. US retail sales worst in decades; holiday view cut

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0619059920081106?sp=true

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. retail chains posted the worst monthly sales data in more than three decades as consumers cut spending sharply in October, stunned by a financial crisis that has derailed the U.S. economy.

The International Council of Shopping Centers called the retail sales environment "simply awful" and said the October results were the worst it had seen in 35 years.

The ICSC said it pared its forecast for what were already expected to be dismal holiday season sales. It now expect sales in November and December to rise 1 percent, down from its prior view for a gain of 1.7 percent.

"The great unknown is just how much lower can consumer spending go?" said Piper Jaffray analyst Jeff Klinefelter. "With savings rates at historic lows and constraints on the availability of consumer credit, I just think there's concern that the perfect storm is brewing."

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) stood out as one of the few bright spots. It posted a better-than-expected 2.4 percent rise in sales at U.S. stores open at least a year. Analysts had forecast a 1.6 percent gain, according to Thomson Reuters.

...more...

[Demeter]

80. Consumer Spending Can Go to Zero--Who Is This Idiot?

Hell, we're nearly there already.

[UpInArms]

62. CEO confidence index plunges to record low-survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0644235420081106

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. chief executives have abruptly lost confidence in business and economic conditions and about jobs, according to a monthly index that posted its biggest-ever drop in October.

The CEO Confidence Index fell 42 points to 58.2 last month, a record low, Chief Executive magazine said on Thursday. The index had registered gains in confidence in August and September.

Measures of both current and future business conditions also plummeted in October, and the survey's employment confidence indexes reached record lows.

More than two-thirds of CEOs expect employment to fall over the next quarter, according to the survey, suggesting the U.S. unemployment rate could reach 8 percent in coming months, compared with 6.1 percent in the most recent reading. The government will release October jobs data on Friday.

...more...

[truthisfreedom]

63. First buy signal in weeks from Donald Rowe

http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/hotline.php

[DemWynner]

64. October sales show consumers are spooked

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Disappointing, dreary, dismal. Take your pick.
For the most part, retailers' October sales missed expectations, and much of the blame for that falls to skittish consumers. At last count, 56% of retailers missed Wall Street's targets, according to Thomson Reuters. See full story.
The results are particularly chilling because they come just ahead of the holiday shopping season, which is the most important selling period for most retailers and when people can usually be relied upon to shop until they drop.
Though many have tried to fight the soft sales trends by managing inventories, margins and costs, many merchants reporting Thursday seemed positively downbeat about the coming months.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/October-sales-show-consumers-scared/story.aspx?guid={268E73E6-DE9C-4335-B048-722A5A601378}

[DemWynner]

65. I hope that they realize that WE are the consumers

The real wage keeps going down and the companies keep shipping industry over seas. The US is the largest consumer and if we are not working, we are not buying!

[specimenfred1984]

66. Q: where were the smarter-than-everyone tech dweebs screaming "overbought"?

I heard from lots of them saying "Buy buy buy, what a bargain" but they were oddly silent about selling when the very same numbers must have surely indicated an overbought situation. Hmnnn...I wonder if there are just a bunch of clueless and brainwashed robots in our culture who could absolutely care less about truth, reality, justice and learning and only care about enriching themselves?

Nahhhhh, it just couldn't be! LOL!

[Dr.Phool]

67. They're busy studying "How to make a killing in the Market, for Idiots"

And rearranging their thingies.

[specimenfred1984]

69. That and "How to turn Ebay into a money making machine"

And "Profiting on Foreclosures"! Ahhhh, disaster capitalism is just so wonderful!

[Dr.Phool]

71. I'm gonna buy Ford tonight. The whole company!

It was $1.86 a few minutes ago. I figure I can get it for about 10k.

Raid it just like T. Boone would.

[specimenfred1984]

72. I was going to buy Chrysler but something about Satan's evil multi-headed dog

owning them (Cerberus) scared me away!

[MadinMo]

68. What kind of a comeback can you suggest for a co-worker?

My co-worker is a bitter McCain supporter who is blaming the last two days of market losses on the market not being in rapture over Obama. What can I say to rebuff this shit?

My personal thinking is that the Right is no longer trying to prop up the market now that the election is done.

[Dr.Phool]

70. Try this post from Demeter today.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3586480#3586555

Read both links, and show him the charts.

The manipulation has been obvious for months now.

[Demeter]

81. If You Want to Do that, Hit the Permalink Button First

then the specific post is referenced.

[specimenfred1984]

73. Ask 'em if they'd like to "torture some of them eyerackies"

The fcktard repuke doesn't require any legitimate response from you or anyone else.

[Dr.Phool]

74. Billionaire Backer Of Right-Wing Causes Is Down On His Luck

Billionaire Backer Of Right-Wing Causes Is Down On His Luck
By Zachary Roth - November 6, 2008, 3:42PM

The casino company Las Vegas Sands, which is owned by right-wing billionaire Sheldon Adelson, has said it may default on debt and face bankruptcy, reports Bloomberg. In trading today, stocks in the company plunged.

The news wire adds:

Today's admission comes after Adelson, who holds a stake of more than 64 percent, invested an additional $475 million in September to avoid violating the terms of a loan, and hired an unidentified investment bank to raise more capital with his help.

But as recently as July, Adelson, who is said to still have considerable resources, had assured reporters on a conference call the company will not have liquidity problems."

Adelson, a Bush pioneer, last year worked with ex-Bush-administration officials to found the group Freedom's Watch, which advocates an open-ended commitment to the war in Iraq. As The New Yorker recently reported, he's fiercely opposed to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and is a close ally of hawkish Israeli politician and ex-PM Benjamin Netanyahu. He has been a major contributor to AIPAC, and over the years has funded numerous congressional trips to Israel.

And in May, the Boston Globe reported (via Nexis) that Adelson has "waged some bitter anti-union battles in Las Vegas."

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/11/billionaire_backer_of_right-wi.php

[UpInArms]

77. Fed loans to financial markets total $590 bln in latest week

05. Fed loans to financial markets total $590 bln in latest week
4:30 PM ET, Nov 06, 2008

[ozymandius]

78. Here's the ugly capper for the day.

Symbol Last Change Dow 8,695.79 Down 443.48 (4.85%)
Nasdaq 1,608.70 Down 72.94 (4.34%)
S&P 500 904.88 Down 47.89 (5.03%)
10-Yr Bond 3.7070% Up 0.0130
NYSE Volume 6,233,609,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,431,797,000

4:20 pm : Downbeat economic data, abysmal retail sales, and weak business prospects reminded investors just how tenuous the macro environment has become. Sellers dominated Thursday's action and pushed stocks sharply lower for the second straight session. The two-day slide amounted to a 10.0% loss, the worst two day drop in nearly one month.

Job markets remain loose as claims stand at recession-like levels. Weekly jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 1 totaled 481,000, down 4,000 from the prior week. The weekly number was roughly in-line with the consensus estimate, and the four-week moving average held steady at 477,000. Economists await the October unemployment rate due tomorrow morning.

Nonfarm business productivity rose at a 1.1% annual rate in the third quarter, in-line with expectations. Unit labor costs rose at a 3.6% annual rate, which was more than expected.

With job losses mounting, consumers are less willing to spend their discretionary dollars. In turn, Nordstrom (JWN 15.23, -0.78), Gap (GPS 12.46, -0.38), American Eagle (AEO 10.01, -0.16), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 26.55, -0.23) all reported double-digit declines in October same-store sales.

Wholesalers and discounters like BJ's Wholesale (BJ 36.22, +0.64) and Wal-Mart (WMT 54.47, +0.34) fared better, able to benefit by attracting cash-strapped shoppers to their stores. Both posted increased same-store sales for October.

Retailers haven't been the only companies battling against stiff macro headwinds. Tech bellwether Cisco (CSCO 16.94, -0.45) posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for the latest quarter, but disappointed when it announced it expects revenue to take a downturn.

Challenging business conditions continue weighing on actual earnings results and earnings expectations. Analysts at Morgan Stanley project Goldman Sachs (GS 80.72, -6.71) will post its first quarterly loss since the former Wall Street star went public just over a decade ago.

Declines among financial stocks made them the worst performing economic sector. It shed 6.7% this session and is now just 10.8% above its 52-week low, reached nearly two weeks ago.

After Google (GOOG 331.22, -11.02) walked away from a proposed business alliance with Yahoo! (YHOO 13.96, +0.04), Yahoo stated it is a strategic fit for Microsoft (MSFT 20.88, -1.20). Microsoft offered to pay Yahoo roughly $33 per share earlier this year, but walked away when Yahoo argued the price was too low.

The negative bias among market participants took stocks steadily lower as the session progressed. The major indices finished near their session lows, each down more than 6.5% week-to-date.DJ30 -443.48 NASDAQ -72.94 SP500 -47.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 570/2.39 bln/2191 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 538/1.53 bln/2575

[yurbud]

84. great quote at the bottom on economic terrorist Milton Friedman