STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 7, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 74
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2570 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2861
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 6, 2008

Dow... 8,695.79 -443.48 (-5.10%)
Nasdaq... 1,608.70 -72.94 (-4.34%)
S&P 500... 904.88 -47.89 (-5.03%)
Gold future... 732.20 -10.20 (-1.39%)
30-Year Bond 4.20% +0.05 (+1.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.71% +0.01 (+0.35%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[Demeter]

1. Good Morning, Oh Great One!

It's so easy to wake up these days, with the uncertainty gone and the Bush regime on its way out. Have a great day!

[ozymandius]

3. You mean me?

Well, thank you should that be the case.

I did have trouble waking up this morning. Probably I hit the snooze button more than twice. It's not Bush's fault this time. In fact - I'm looking for a fresh startling gust of honesty when Obama takes the helm.

[Demeter]

6. Nobody Else I Know Sets Up This Thread Every Day

Yes, of course I mean you!

[ozymandius]

8. .

:blush:

[Hugin]

15. ...

:popcorn:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

45. Repeat after me:

"HOW SWEET IT IS!!!"

"Pow! To the moon!"

"Haminahaminahamina"

;-)

[UpInArms]

48. glad to see you back!

:grouphug:

[Hugin]

50. Great to see you back.

Appendix-less.

:)

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

51. Yes, well...

They didn't lay a finger on my footnotes and index. ;-)

Thanks to all. I am still as sharp as a bowling ball from the pain meds and general condition, but I'll make it.

[Hugin]

53. Did you take the time to...

Draw all sorts of arrows and diagrams with a Sharpie explaining the procedure to the Surgeon or
did you... Throw the dice?

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

69. I threw the dice.

On the other hand, explaining what few meds I take to him was...interesting. Devoid o' clue.

[Hugin]

83. Well, to reiterate...

I'm glad it was a successful venture and to have you back among us. :)

Please see Roland99 for a link to a thread containing even more Best Wishes from various DUers.

[Roland99]

93. Looks like it didn't come up snake eyes!

Welcome back!

:hi:

[Karenina]

99. Schön das Du da bist!

:hug:

[ozymandius]

110. Congratulations! Welcome back!

I'm very happy to see you beat back adversity and illness. :yourock: :toast:

[Festivito]

88. Greatly appreciated.

I was late by reason of a cold. Skipping work. Making chicken soup.

Hope you are well with only the most occasional bout with sloth.

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

Unfriendly Trends
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

This morning (Thursday), the Labor Department announced the latest data on weekly jobless claims. While the initial claims report was in line with expectations, continuing claims were worse than expected, hitting their highest level since February 1983 -- three months after the last major recession ended. However, this development is not necessarily a cause for celebration for those who are looking for evidence that the economy has hit bottom. As it happens, the last time we saw these levels was after the series had declined 18% from a peak of 4.71 million claims in November 1982.

On Monday, the Treasury Department announced that U.S government borrowing needs for the current quarter are expected to rise to a record $550 billion, following the $530 billion raised last quarter. Washington’s burgeoning demand for borrowed money reflects the costs of financing various government bailouts, including the $700 billion financial rescue plan, as well as a federal budget deficit that has ballooned amid higher outlays and plunging tax receipts. If the following graph of the monthly year-to-date differences between revenues and outlays was a stock chart, I would imagine that a lot of technicians would probably be yelling “sell” right now.

-chart-

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Heap-O-Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Oct
Briefing.com 33.6
Consensus 33.6
Prior 33.6

08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct
Briefing.com -200K
Consensus -200K
Prior -159K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Oct
Briefing.com 6.4%
Consensus 6.3%
Prior 6.1%

10:00 Pending Home Sales Sep
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -3.4%
Prior 7.4%

10:00 Wholesale Inventories Sep
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.8%

15:00 Consumer Credit Sep
Briefing.com $5.0B
Consensus $0.0B
Prior -$7.9B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

14. Undercounting Under-Employment

Tomorrow is NFP day, and I am expecting a doozy of a number: a loss of 250-300k jobs, and the Unemployment rate ticking up towards 6.5%.

But even that number does not accurately portray the amount of employment damage that has been done the past few years. Indeed, one of the ways we correctly anticipated the economic falloff was by analyzing the weak employment data beneath the headlines over the past few years.

Does that relatively mild U3 unemployment rate accurately portray the employment circumstances? U3 is the official UE rate, but the BLS also reports a full -- and much uglier measure -- U6. I've long said that the U6 number is more accurate, and more and more people are recognizing that as the case.

Dan Gross of Slate and Newsweek has been in the same camp for quite a while. A column of his from October is worth resurrecting prior to tomorrow's Employment Situation Release. NFP. Dan observes:

"It's hard to overstate the poor numbers coming out of Wall Street in recent months. But could it be that we're overstating the gravity of the situation? As job losses have mounted and consumer confidence has plunged, policymakers, news organizations, econo-pundits, and even some of my Slate colleagues have noted that the unemployment rate, which rose to 6.1 percent in September, seems to be at a nonrecessionary, noncatastrophic, low level. The unemployment rate is still below where it was in 2003; and between September 1982 and May 1983, the last very deep recession, it topped 10 percent.

But maybe the employment data are much worse than they seem. In the past year, the two key measures of employment—the unemployment rate and the payroll jobs figure—have been poor but not awful. The unemployment rate has risen from 4.5 percent a year ago to 6.1 percent. And in the first nine months, 760,000 payroll jobs were lost. This is unwelcome but not catastrophic. So why do things feel so bad? It's not because, as Phil Gramm suggested, we're a nation of whiners. And it's not a matter of columnists and spin doctors shading the numbers to make things look worse.

Rather, these two figures are undermeasuring the weakness in the labor market. By some measures, in fact, the job situation is worse than it has been at any time since 1994.

Exactly.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/undercounting-underemployed/

[Tansy_Gold]

30. I'm curious as to where the self-employed figure into this

Everything from small business owners who probably report most of their income down to the part-timer who supplement other income or just squeak by on unreported cash labor and sales.

I suspect that as the "real" economy -- manufacturing and other "real" goods and services -- has fizzled and the "trickle up" has pulled more and more wealth out of the system, the "underground economy" has shrunk, too, leaving a lot of really vulnerable people in dire circumstances. It's probably also shoved a lot more people into the underground economy, as their traditional incomes have dried up or diminished and they seek supplements.

Just curious.


Just


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

34. My personal anecdotal evidence...

Up until a few months ago, I was trying to run a Small Business in a highly discretionary spending sector.

It's dead. No demand. Ziltch... and as of now, I don't see any prospect of resurrecting it any time soon.

I've stated before, it's been like trying to use sparks from a flint on wet kindling.

Also, it's not counted. There is no facility or measure which tracks these things, I know of...

If you aren't a Wall Street Colossus the bean counters just aren't interested.

The failure of my enterprise idled six people... It was very hard for me to break it to them. x(

[Dr.Phool]

40. Same here.

I got out of my pizza joint 6 months ago. I was lucky. My partner bought me out, and I didn't lose any money. About a month ago, he closed up shop. He thought he had the place sold last week, but the deal fell through.

That also idled about 6 other people.

[Hugin]

46. There's no word I can find to describe my feelings about the oddest part of my story...

It's a mixture of amazement, amusement and rage.

We were producing very specific custom Art items... We'd come out with a new line and not a month later
absolute knock-offs would begin appearing in those mail-order catalogs cheaply made in some far off land.

So, someone out there thought there was a market for what we made... A large enough market that they went
into mass production and advertising.

Too bad they didn't share any of the proceeds with us... That's when I lost faith in the Creative Class
Myth.

I wonder who's ideas they're going to steal now?

[Tansy_Gold]

58. I share your rage, Prag

But mine is directed in a slighly different direction.

I'm an artist/crafter, in some ways more craft, but in other ways more "art" in that my stuff isn't duplicable. Everything has to be hand made and each item is one of kind. When I apply to some art/craft shows, I have to certify that all my work is original and made by me. Okay fine.

Many of the 2-D artists -- painters, photographers, etc. -- are able to reproduce their works ad infinitum. A single popular watercolor can yield a thousand note cards, a hundred framed prints. The "artist" never lays a brush to those prints, yet they are considered (by some) "original art."

I was recently almost juried out of a show because some of my items were crafted -- each individually and each with a uniqueness that only comes from being hand-made by me -- from a pattern (not a sewing pattern). A fellow crafter who does one of a kind commissioned woven-tapesty wall hangings as "art" but also weaves small items like coasters and place-mats to sell at reasonable prices, was juried in but told she could not display the "craft" items. A potter who learned his craft as therapy after a post-Vietnam PTSD total collapse was informed that he could display and sell his large "art" items but not his wheel-thrown individually carved and glazed one-of-a-kind $5 salsa bowls because they weren't "arty" enough.

All three of us complained -- and I did so somewhat loudly -- that these were our bread-and-butter income producers in EXACTLY the same way that the oil painters and watercolorists and photographers took in the bulk of their revenue from sales of mechanically-reproduced prints of their original work-- they sell a lot more 4/$5 packs of printed note cards than they do $500 original oil paintings. Even that wasn't enough to tip the scale in our favor until one of the jurors, herself an artist in the same show, angrily stated that OF COURSE she only sold prints and copies because she NEVER sold any of her originals! The fact that she would have no truly original art on display or for sale at this show shifted the attitudes of the other jurors who then allowed us three in the show and granted us the right to display and sell affordable "craft" items that didn't quite meet the jurors' definition of "art," even though they were individually hand made and one-of-a-kind.

The cheap knock-off that you describe, Prag, is just another symptom of the anti-craft attitude that has taken hold in and perhaps because of the consumer economy. Quality is totally irrelevant. It's all about quantity and new, where a product is considered BETTER if it wears out or falls apart in six months because then yippee! we get to go to Whack-Mart and buy a new one or four.

Yes, yes, I know. This has damn little to do with the stock market. But it's the holiday shopping season again and the retailers are whining that they aren't going to be able to sell enough of China's cheap plastic crap, while I and my fellow artists and crafters watch our sales slowly diminish because no one wants to buy that handmade quilt that will last for generations or the stoneware coffee mugs that won't match the kitchen curtains when a different color comes into "fashion" two years from now.

We've lost the connectedness we used to have with the producers of our goods and services. We no longer care which faceless Chinese or Honduran or Turkish less-than-sustainable-wage slave made the shirt or the faux-veneer end table or the $150 sneakers that last 60 days or the 69-cent salad bowl at Big Lots. We just want MORE STUFF, even if it's sheer crap.


Tansy Gold, who doesn't

[Warpy]

86. Don't knock signed prints

because that's what most of the stuff on my walls is.

I bought most of them from the artists and a few of them were thrift shop finds. All are signed and numbered, unlike the cheap crap you find mass produced in every big box store and import joint. They were a lot cheaper than the original painting and the artist got some profit from their sale.

Signed prints are a cheap way to get stuff on your walls that you'll want to look at five years down the line. When I was too poor to afford anything real, those sustained me.

Trust me, my place is stuffed with original ceramics, glass, weaving (my own), and the products of other crafters. Crafters are the people I wanted to support, even when all I could afford was a print or card.

[Tansy_Gold]

100. Just to clarify

I'm not knocking signed prints. I'm not knocking artists who make or attempt to make a living selling prints/reproductions of their own work. And I'm sure as hell not knocking those wonderful people who support us by buying our work! A thousand blessings on you! ;-)


I'm knocking those "artists" (usually but not always painters & photographers) who mass re-produce their own work -- MASS produce, not signed, not numbered, not limited edition -- but call it "original" and then attempt to discriminate against mere "artisans" and "crafters" who produce original, hand-made (and usually functional) items. The rationale is that "craft" isn't "art," even when it's "original." And the idea that artistic merit is in inverse proportion to selling price REALLY bugs me.

I shouldn't have gone off on this tangent, but it's a really sore spot with me.

I'll quietly slink off into my cave, er, studio now.



Tansy Gold, starving artist

[Warpy]

120. Thomas Kinkade, anyone?

<ducking>

Here's the antidote: http://www.somethingawful.com/d/photoshop-phriday/paintings-light-part.php

[Hugin]

136. Haha! These are hilarious.

:rofl:

[fasttense]

39. Just to let you know, the U6 is 11.8%. n/t

[UpInArms]

33. Oct NPF fall 240,000 - Sept rev'd down by 125,000 to -284,000

01. U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrollls fall 240,000 vs 210,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

02. U.S. Oct. unemployment rate rises to 6.5%, 14-year high
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

03. U.S. Oct. average hourly earnings up 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

04. U.S. 2008 payrolls fall by 1.18 milllion jobs
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

05. U.S. Oct. alternative jobless rate rises to 11.8%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

06. U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls revised to 284,000 loss
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

07. U.S. 2008 unemployment rises by 2.8 million
8:30 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

[Dr.Phool]

38. September revised down by 125,000!???!

WTF were they counting? They were off by 50%? What is October's real number?

These numbers are horrendous.

Sounds like we're primed for another sucker rally with all the good news, and all.:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

42. do you remember the Sept ADP showing a loss of 8,000?

what losers they are - I hope that their report gets shoved in the dustbin of history very soon.

edited to change it from "gain" to "loss" on the title - here's the September ADP report:

ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Decreased by 8,000 Private Sector Jobs in September

ROSELAND, NJ, Oct 01 (MARKET WIRE) -- According to today's ADP National Employment Report(R), private sector employment decreased by 8,000 in September. The ADP National Employment Report, created by ADP(R) Employer Services, a division of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is based on actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.

Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights - September Report:

-- Total employment: -8,000

-- Small businesses* +28,000
-- Medium businesses** -30,000
-- Large businesses*** -6,000
-- Goods-producing sector: -72,000
-- Service-providing sector: +64,000

Addendum:
-- Manufacturing industry: -48,000

* Small businesses represent payrolls with 1-49 employees
** Medium businesses represent payrolls with 50-499 employees
*** Large businesses represent payrolls with more than 499 employees

According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC,
"Nonfarm private employment decreased 8,000 from August to September 2008
on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment
Report(R). The estimated change in employment from July to August was
revised down from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of 37,000.
September's ADP National Employment Report continues to offer evidence of
a weak labor market. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect
two special factors that might have further depressed employment in
September. These are the strike of some 37,000 machinists against Boeing,
and job losses related to hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast."

Prakken added, "This month's employment loss was driven by the
goods-producing sector which declined 72,000 during September, its
twenty-second consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked
its twenty-fifth consecutive monthly decline, losing 48,000 jobs. These
losses were somewhat offset by employment gains in the service-providing
sector of the economy which advanced by 64,000."

"Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw
employment decline 6,000, while medium-size companies with between 50 and
499 workers declined 30,000. Employment among small-size businesses,
defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, advanced a moderate 28,000
during the month, after posting an even weaker gain of 17,000 in August,"
said Prakken.

Prakken went on to say, "Two sectors of the economy hit hardest by recent
problems in mortgage markets have been residential construction and
financial activities related to home sales and mortgage lending. Today's
report suggests no lessening of the recent strain on employment in these
industries. In September, construction employment dropped 29,000. This
was its twenty-second consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total
decline in construction jobs since the peak in August of 2006 to 409,000.
Employment in financial activities advanced just 4,000 during the month."

The matched sample used to develop the ADP National Employment Report was
derived from ADP data which, during the first six months of 2008, averaged
approximately 399,000 payrolls representing nearly 24 million U.S.
employees. This approximately represents the size of the matched sample
used this month.

Small Business Highlights - September Report:

Due to the important contribution small businesses make to economic
growth, employment data that is specific to businesses with fewer than 50
employees will be reported in the ADP Small Business Report(SM) each
month. The ADP Small Business Report is a subset of the ADP National
Employment Report.

-- Total small business employment: +28,000
-- Goods-producing sector: -16,000 small business jobs
-- Service-providing sector: +44,000 small business jobs

Private employment among small businesses increased by 28,000 in
September, according to the ADP Small Business Report released today.
Additional information about small business employment, including charts
on monthly job growth and employment levels, along with historical data,
is available here.

...more crap at link...

[Dr.Phool]

75. Yes I do.

They are not on always wrong, but they are wildly wrong.

What kind of credible economist buys their bullshit anyway?

[Roland99]

56. Nice way to hide even worse news and "revise" it later.

[Mojorabbit]

101. What is NPF? nt

[UpInArms]

108. NFP is my dislexic fingers trying to type NFP (non-farm payrolls)

:blush:

:hi:

[Demeter]

122. Hate to Say It, But Your Fingers Can't Spell, Either

dyslexic

Demeter the Grammarian Barbarian

[UpInArms]

133. okay -

send in the wahhhhhhh-ambulance!

:cry:

[Mojorabbit]

137. Thanks! I should have

been able to figure that out myself. I am having a space cadet kind of day.

[UpInArms]

64. WTF!!!! Report Results are no longer being posted????

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

nothing there since the ISM on November 3rd

weird and scary development

[Roland99]

67. Interesting. Bug? Person in charge got fired?

[Hugin]

92. Oh, my...

This is dire news.

:worriedexpression:

[UpInArms]

70. US wholesale inventories unexpectedly drop

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN0739928220081107

WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly dipped 0.1 percent in September, the biggest drop since December 2006, while monthly sales tumbled for the third straight month, a Commerce Department report showed on Friday.

Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters had expected inventories to rise 0.3 percent in September, after a 0.6 percent gain in August that was previously reported as a 0.8 percent rise.

Sales fell 1.5 percent in September after dropping 1.6 percent in August, which was previously reported as a 1.0 percent decline.

The August drop was the largest since April 2003, when sales fell 2.1 percent.

The plummeting sales pushed up the inventories-to-sales ratio, a measure of how long it would take to sell stock at the current sales pace, to 1.12 months' worth from 1.10 months' in August.

Sales of nondurable goods, which make up more than half of wholesale sales, fell 1.9 percent in September, lead by a 7.8 percent drop in farm product sales. Petroleum sales fell 3.6 percent.

...more...

[Pale Blue Dot]

79. Pending home sales down 4.6%

Wow.

[UpInArms]

104. U.S. Sept. consumer credit up $6.9 billion

04. U.S. Sept. consumer credit up at 3.2% rate
3:00 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

05. U.S. Sept. consumer credit up $6.9 billion
3:00 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

[ozymandius]

5. Oil steady at $61 after 2-day plunge

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady near $61 a barrel Friday in Asia, pausing after a two-day plunge, but vulnerable to another steep fall as evidence of a severe U.S. recession continues to mount.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was up 38 cents at $61.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. Oil prices overnight fell $4.53 to settle at $60.77 after dropping $5.23 the previous day.

"There's a lot of gloom and doom right now," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Mounting bad news on the economic front is negatively affecting oil."

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 0.9 cent to $1.35 a gallon. Heating oil gained 0.6 cent to $1.95 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery fell 5.4 cents to $6.93 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

---

I would love to see a chart detailing gasoline price trends during the Bush administration. I suspect that it would look like a camel's back (the Dromedary kind).

[ozymandius]

12. Forget Corn: Mushrooms May Hold Key to Energy Crisis (Update1)

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- A solution to the world's energy problems may lie in a Chinese mushroom growing in Novozymes A/S laboratories.

The Danish company's scientists in China, Brazil, Denmark and the U.S. are testing mushrooms and lichen to find one that will turn corn cobs and sugarcane stalks into biofuel. An affordable alternative to gasoline made from plant waste would end concerns that global hunger for energy is driving up food prices worldwide.

Novozymes said it will find the answer by 2010, getting to the market before its closest rival, Danisco A/S.

....

Fungi like mushrooms and lichen make enzymes to eat rotting logs and decaying leaves. Biofuel producers use the proteins to break down the complex carbohydrates in plant cells into a soup- like mixture of simple sugars that yeast can eat. In a process much like making beer, yeast ferments the mixture, producing ethanol. Enzymes now on the market can't break down the tougher parts of plants effectively enough to be affordable.

....

In one day scavenging compost outside the city of Changchun, Wenping found 53 different fungi. Only one may turn out to have enzymes that will convert corn waste, said Wenping, who is based at Novozymes's headquarters in Bagsvaerd, Denmark. Scientists tested the fungi's enzymes to measure how long they took to break down coarse, brown plant matter the size of coffee granules, and what sugars were produced.

Novozymes also maps each fungus's genes to locate the instructions for enzyme production. Once found, a process that could take up to six months, researchers will insert the genes into bacteria that are genetically engineered to mass-produce enzymes for even finer testing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aqf2JJ0iGYBE&refer=exclusive

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

47. Over at TED Talks...

There is a talk by a guy about all the promise held in the world of fungi. We have the video on WNT and it is one of the most popular there. It is most enlightening.

[ozymandius]

7. Vanishing jobs, stressed consumers feed downturn

WASHINGTON – A vicious cycle of vanishing jobs and stresses on American consumers is spelling deeper trouble for the already sinking U.S. economy.

All the economy's woes — a housing collapse, mounting foreclosures, hard-to-get credit and financial market upheaval — will confront President-elect Obama when he assumes office early next year. Obama has shifted from campaign mode to the task of building a new Democratic administration. A top priority will be quickly assembling his economics team, including the secretaries of Treasury, Commerce and Labor.

On the crucial jobs front, the situation is likely to move from bad to worse next year.

....

As U.S. consumers watch jobs disappear, they'll probably retrench even further.

That's why analysts predict the economy is still shrinking in the current October-December quarter and will contract further in the first quarter of next year. All that more than fulfills a classic definition of a recession: two straight quarters of contracting economic activity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[ozymandius]

9. Retailers Report a Sales Collapse

Sales at the nation’s largest retailers fell off a cliff in October, casting fresh doubt on the survival of some chains and signaling that this will probably be the weakest Christmas shopping season in decades.

The remarkable slowdown hit luxury chains that sell $5,000 designer dresses as badly as stores that offer $18 packs of underwear, suggesting that consumers at all income levels are snapping their wallets shut.

....

Consumers are cutting their spending for many reasons, but high on the list is the weakening employment picture. Even people who still have jobs are pinching pennies as they hear of layoffs among friends and family. Unemployment has hit 6.1 percent, and a new jobs report due Friday is expected to show further deterioration.

....

Retailers usually make most of their profit during the Christmas shopping season. And while they always offer impressive sales, they plan to discount only about 25 percent of their merchandise, not half of it, Mr. Cohen said. Too much discounting erodes profits. And by cutting prices so early, retailers risk running out of stock, or color and size options, before the season’s home stretch.

....

Bankrupt and ailing retailers are undercutting some of their healthy peers. Last week, for instance, Mervyn’s announced a 149-store liquidation sale just in time for the holidays. Other such sales are already under way at Steve & Barry’s and Linens ’n Things. Circuit City, the struggling electronics chain, began liquidation sales this week at 155 stores it is closing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/business/07retail.html?em

[UpInArms]

32. Survey: Americans cutting back on gifts

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/fewer_holiday_gifts?_ylt=AoM2nODh8mkphovxOx_.AtGb.HQA

NEW YORK – Shoppers are scrimping on holiday gifts, but not when it comes to their pets.

Among those who plan to spend less on gifts this year, only 23 percent are doing so on their pets, according to a survey released Thursday by Consumer Reports. The vast majority (84 percent) said they plan to cut back spending on themselves.

Another 40 percent said they're scaling back on buying for friends and friends' families, while 30 percent plan to spend less on service providers such as delivery people, hair dressers and gym instructors and 29 percent aren't giving as much to co-workers.

In all, 59 percent of shoppers said they plan to cut back on gift giving.

...more...

(edited to fix link)

[Demeter]

123. Those Not Buying Gifts for Their Pets Are Either Abandoning or Eating Them

sigh. Get a clue, Wall Street

[UpInArms]

134. you mean, we're setting the table?

[fasttense]

43. If you don't have a job you can't buy anything. Do you think our

Oh so smart CEOs would have figured this out? Maybe our government could have put 2 and 2 together?

It is only going to get worse.

Welcome to the Republicon Great Recession. It's better than the Republicon Great Depression but it's the worse economic downturn in 69 years.

[ozymandius]

10. Obama names economic crisis team

President-elect Barack Obama will turn to a hand-picked team of economists, business leaders and politicians to help him grapple with the economic crisis today, with the world's richest countries now facing their worst year since the end of the second world war.

....

Obama will meet with the TEAB - whose members were appointed yesterday - in Chicago to debate how to deal with threat of a deep global recession, before giving his first news conference since this week's election.

....

The membership of TEAB shows that Obama will seek advice from across the political and economic spectrum. It includes former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers and former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, as well as the chief executives of Google and Xerox and billionaire investor Warren Buffett – who will join the meeting by speakerphone.

....

Obama may also announce his choice of Treasury secretary later today. The list of possible candidates includes both Volcker and Summers, as well as Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a former executive at the investment bank Goldman Sachs.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/07/useconomy-globalrecession

[boomerbust]

17. Obama

Watching CNBC this morning, Obama is already being blamed for the volitilaty on Wall Street for the simple fact that taxes might be raised on capital gains. I guess these Wall Street hacks think that all the pain they caused should only be absorbed by the average working stiff instead of these rotten fucking crooks who caused this debacle.

[Hugin]

18. I wonder if this is "The Talk"?

Like was given to President Clinton... The one where they say, "You'll have to run the economy in a Republican Lite
manner to please TPTB."

Given the magnitude of the victory that was handed to the Democrats on Tuesday... I hope President Obama doesn't
feel any pressure to comply with those who caused this mess.

I'm going to give President Elect Obama the benefit-of-a-doubt and at this point view this as wanting to hear from
all sectors of thought... Although, I notice that the more Progressive lines of thought are underrepresented. The
selections being made more from the supply-side school.

[pfitz59]

115. Same old revolving door?

Barrack...say it isn't so! What about Paul Krugman? Nobel Prize and all that.....

[UpInArms]

116. I'm hoping Krugman gets the Treasury Secretary gig

:hi:

[Demeter]

124. Rumor Said He Doesn't Want It--And Who Could Blame Him?

[ozymandius]

11. Asian Markets End the Week Mixed

HONG KONG -- Asian stock markets ended a mixed week with a mixed performance Friday, as investors awaited U.S. economic data due out late Friday and digested the implications of the latest interest rate cuts in Europe and South Korea.

....

The South Korean Kospi stock market index rose 3.8 percent in response to Friday’s move, but the picture for the rest of the Asia-Pacific region was mixed, while the main markets in Europe traded only slightly higher during the morning.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index rose 3.3 percent, ending the week 2 percent higher. This was despite a 20 percent slump in shares of the computer manufacturer Lenovo, following news Friday of sharply lower earnings during the second quarter and a warning that computer sales to companies were likely to remain depressed for several more quarters.

But the Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 3.5 percent, with Toyota Motors slumping 9.2 percent on the announcement Thursday that the company was halving its annual profit forecast.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/08/business/08markets.html?ref=worldbusiness

[ozymandius]

13. Credit Swap Disclosure Obscures True Financial Risk (Update3)

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The most comprehensive report on unregulated credit-default swaps didn't disclose bets in the section of the more than $47 trillion market that helped destroy American International Group Inc., once the world's biggest insurer.

A report by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. doesn't include privately negotiated credit-default swaps that insurers such as AIG, MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. sold to guarantee securities known as collateralized debt obligations. It includes only a ``small fraction'' of contracts linked to mortgage securities, according to Andrea Cicione at BNP Paribas SA in London.

....

DTCC released the data as dealers and investors in the market seek to counter criticism that the market has amplified the financial crisis. The Nov. 4 report showed, for example, that $15.4 trillion of contracts linked to individual companies, governments and other borrowers were created. After canceling out contracts that offset one another, though, sellers of that protection would have to pay $1.76 trillion if all underlying borrowers defaulted and debt holders recovered nothing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKKRHZsxRvWs&refer=exclusive

[ozymandius]

16. Hedgies Still Blowing Up the Markets, Oh My!

A front page story in the Wall Street Journal discusses how continued forced selling by hedge funds was the proximate cause of the sharp selloff of the last two days (um, the simply lousy economic news. such as lousy payrolls, horrific retail sales, no sales of credit card bonds in the last month, and similarly not-so-cheery news from overseas had nothing to do with it).

Deleveraging is destructive to asset prices. Some had hoped with the big credit default swap settlements October credit default swap settlements past (Freddie, Fannie, Lehman, WaMu) that the big impetus for hedge funds dumping assets would be largely past. We weren't so certain. First, most hedge funds have quarterly redemptions, and their investors were expected to ask for their money back in large numbers, in many cases because performance has been bad, but others factor are that investors want to reduce risk and (quelle surprise!) may need the cash. I am told typical arrangements are that withdrawal notices are due by 45 days after the end of the quarter and payment is to be made no later than 45 days after that. And unless the funds are very heavily in cash (not likely given their return ambitions), they need to sell SOMETHING to pay investors back.

However, that pressure may not be as great as thought because some hedge funds are refusing or limiting redemptions. Why this does not fatally tarnish the entire concept is beyond me (I take honoring contractual agreements seriously), but All About Alpha tells us in "Stigma of redemption gates fading fast":

Apparently, the stigma associated with closing redemption gates is quickly disappearing. As Thomson reports,

Blocking investors’ exits, even if only briefly, was once a highly unusual move that often signaled a hedge fund was on the verge of collapse, managers and investors acknowledged…That is changing now as ever-more managers and investors engage in a tug of war over who can receive money right now.”

Wealth Bulletin cites 6 hedge fund managers that have suspended redemptions and several that have offered “sweeteners” for investors to stick around. The list of new gates includes: Centaurus Capital, Polygon Investment Partners (old news), Gottex Fund Management, Wermuth Asset Management, Auriel, and Atlantis Investment Management. According to the publication, favorable fee sweeteners have been offered in exchange for locking-in capital at: RAB Capital, Ramius Capital, BlueBay Asset Management and Henderson Global Investors.

....

But back to the main event. Even if hedgies have managed to hold calls for dough in abeyance, they still have more CDS related stresses buffeting the markets. The Iceland settlement is in the wings, and GM may go into bankruptcy. And any time a big hedge fund barfs and takes down a market, other firms can be forced to sell by virtue of margin calls on assets whose prices just tanked.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/hedgies-still-blowing-up-markets-oh-my.html

[ozymandius]

19. Mish's hedge fund crisis review and forecast

Case Against Hedge Funds

* No transparency. You have no idea what the fund is doing or holding.
* Leverage is a two way street. Excessive leverage is now exacerbating losses.
* Exit restrictions. You cannot get out when you want to.
* Whopping fees. Hedge finds take 2% off the top plus 20% of profits. That 20% of profits encourages excessive risk taking. If the fund blows up the manager just starts another one.
* Hedge funds are supposed to make money no matter which way the market goes, or so they claim. To collectively be down 18%, they had to have been making one sided bullish bets on something. Where's the hedge?

A massive and long overdue consolidation in hedge funds is coming in 2009-2010. I concur that a 30% reduction in the number of funds may be optimistic. A far bigger reduction in assets under management is nearly guaranteed.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/wave-of-redemptions-hit-hedge-funds.html

[ozymandius]

20. I leave you with this ray of sunshine.

Remember yesterday's news: Dick Fuld, CEO of bankrupt Lehman Brothers, has been fired. His contract terminates at the end of the year. The upside: his golden parachute consists of an anvil, chained to an anchor, tied to a boulder, lashed to an engine block. In short - no bonus and no severance pay. I've heard that his fall was cushioned by Lehman's 'welcome' mat.

Have a nice day.

:hi:

[Hugin]

22. Aw, poor guy...

He'll probably have to get by on a Govt. Salary (and the pre-looted Multi-millions) after he's appointed to the Treasury.

:hi:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

49. I love that story...

Apparently true, about a Merill executive knocking Dickie out with one punch to the button as he ran the treadmill in the executive gym. This was when Fuld was screwing investors as the ship was going down.

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.634 Change -0.643 (-0.83%)

How Much Does the US Dollar Forecast Depend on US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs)?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/How_Much_Does_the_US_1226006853148.html

The US dollar surged on Thursday as risk aversion triggered flight-to-quality and sharp declines in US stocks for the second day in a row. However, on Friday morning, US non-farm payrolls are anticipated to fall by a whopping 200,000 or more for the first time since March 2003 while the unemployment rate is forecasted to reach the highest level since June 2003. How will this impact the US dollar?



Looking at the stats of what the 76 economists polled by Bloomberg News had to say, the range is very wide with the most pessimistic forecast at -300k and the most optimistic forecast at -85k. However, this is the first time in quite a while that non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are anticipated to fall by 200k or more. In fact, the last time expectations were so bad was in October 2001 when the figure actually fell by a whopping 325k in the aftermath of September 11th. What are the realistic odds that NFPs will fall in line with, if not more than, expectations?

Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Remains Near Highest Levels Since At Least 2002
2. Continuing Claims Rise to the Most Since 1983
3. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Component Falls to Lowest on Record Going Back to 1997
4. ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Dives to Lowest Since 1991
5. Challenger Job Cuts Rise For 8th Consecutive Month
6. ADP Employment Change Falls By the Most Since November 2002
7. Consumer Confidence Plunges to Record Low Going Back to 1967
8. Work Stoppages Rocket Up to 27,000 Amidst Strikes
9. Monster.com Employment Index Falls 10 Points in October, Down 20% Year-on-Year
10. Help-Wanted Online Index Goes Virtually Unchanged Following Sharp Declines in September

Just by glancing at the list above, it is rather obvious that the odds are stacked in favor of a disappointing NFP release on Friday. Indeed, every single leading indicator for US employment that we follow suggests that October was a month of heavy job losses, as the number of continuing jobless claims jumped to 3843K in the week ending October 25, the highest reading since 1983. Likewise, the employment components of both ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-Manufacturing (services sector) plummeted, while the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey showed that sentiment fell to the worst levels on record going back to 1967.

...more...

Euro's Momentum Derailed by Dour Manufacturing Report, Has Trichet Dropped the Ball?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_s_Momentum_Derailed_by_Dour_1226057151745.html

The Euro rebounded form a low of 1.2652 soaring to as high as 1.2850 erasing losses following the ECB rate cut. A slew of German fundamental data gave mixed signals as exports rose while manufacturing activity dropped. The German trade surplus widened to 15.0 Billion from 10.6 billion as foreign demand increased on the back of a weakening Euro. However, the lagging September numbers don’t reflect the financial turbulence seen in October and the expected slump in the global economy will weigh on demand. Additionally, industrial production sharply fell -2.1% in September from 1.6% the month prior, which was the biggest drop since August, 2003.A 7.1% drop in durable goods demonstrates the retrenchment of businesses and consumers which will continue to drag the economy into a recession. The dour report would end the Euro’s momentum and send it back below 1.2800.

The ECB has been the least aggressive central bank as it only cut rates by the expected 50 bps. Given President’s Trichet Statement 'I don't exclude that we could decrease rates again. Again, we are not pre-committed in any respect, we'll do whatever is necessary to take into account the situation as it will unfold progressively.', the central bank will maintain its deliberate approach and focus on price stability threaten to sink the Euro- Zone economy further. The calls are growing for the central bank to become more aggressive and markets are pricing in another 143 bps of rate cuts over the next twelve months. Therefore, despite the recent support the single currency has been receiving and may continue to in the near-term ahead of weak U.S. fundamentals

The Pound bounced from a low of 1.5535 during Asian trading and has broken above the 1.58000 price level. After an initial bullish reaction to the BoE’s surprise 150 bps rate cut the Sterling would sell off during the remainder of the U.S. session. Bearish dollar sentiment and increasing hope that the U.K. economy may stabilize following the central bank’s efforts have been supportive factors. Despite the size of the central bank’s easing, Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps are still calling for another 224 bps of cuts over the next twelve months. Consensus is growing that the MPC will have to ultimately follow the Fed’s lead and bring their benchmark rate to as low as 1%. The GBP/USD appears to be trading in a tight range between 1.5500 and 1.6000, but the declining interest rate outlook may send the Pound lower in the medium term.

Non-farm payrolls will present major event risk for the U.S. dollar today as economists are expecting a loss of 200,000 jobs. It would be the tenth month of losses and the largest reduction in employment since March, 2003. Leading indicators have pointed to a greater than expected loss as ADP reported a 157,000 loss in private jobs and the employment component of the service sector dropped to 41.5 from 44.2. U.S. fundamentals haven’t had their traditional impact on the dollar as risk winds have dominated price action. However, the labor report may re-focus traders on the evidence that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession and lead to dollar weakness. Also, President elect Barack Obama is expected to meet with his financial advisors and will hold a press conference following the meeting. The potential exists that the outline for additional measures including the possibility of a second fiscal stimulus plan will be presented. The announcement could spark dollar bullish sentiment as the outlook for the U.S. to be the first to emerge from the credit crisis will improve.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Dollar falls as job losses exceed expectations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Dollar-falls-job-losses-exceed/story.aspx?guid=%7B0CBC3111%2D8BEB%2D4836%2DBBD2%2DEEDD321AD5E7%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar declined Friday after the Labor Department said more jobs were lost in October than forecast, indicating continued pain for the economy. The dollar index ($DXY: 85.71, -0.18, -0.2%), a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, fell to 85.680 from 86.280 in late North American trading on Thursday. The economy lost 240,000 jobs last month, more than the 210,000 estimated by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. September losses were also revised lower. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%, the highest in 14 years Economists expected it to rise to 6.3% from 6.1%. President-elect Barack Obama is also scheduled to later give his first press conference since being elected.

yet another lamestream media hack now calling on Obama to heal 8 years of travesties by the BFEE and acting like they just now noticed that the dollar is in trouble

:banghead:

[UpInArms]

23. Ford announces $129M 3Q loss, burns $7.7B in cash

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081107/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_ford

DEARBORN, Mich. – Ford Motor Co. says it lost $129 million in the third quarter as the struggling automaker burned up $7.7 billion in cash.

The automaker also said Friday it will cut another 10 percent of its North American salaried work force costs as it tries to weather the worst economic downturn in decades.

Ford says it lost 6 cents per share for the quarter, compared with a loss of $380 million, or 19 cents per share, a year ago.

The company posted a pretax loss of $2.7 billion from continuing operations. But it was offset partly by a $2 billion gain as the company shifted retiree health care liabilities to a trust run by the United Auto Workers.

Sales fell 22 percent to $32.1 billion from $41.1 billion due to lower volume and the sale of Jaguar and Land Rover.

Excluding special items, Ford lost $1.31 per share, worse than Wall Street expected. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters predicted a loss of 94 cents per share on sales of $28 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. MONEY MARKETS-Dollar o/n costs hit zero, lending strains stay

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSSP42382220081107?sp=true

SINGAPORE, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Ample cash pushed overnight dollar funding costs to zero in Asia on Friday even though the strains in local money markets showed expectations building for further and deeper rate cuts by global central banks.

A day after the Bank of England slashed rates by 150 basis points and the European Central Bank and the Swiss central bank cut rates by half a percentage point, the Bank of Korea reduced its base rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent.

Korean interest rate swaps KRWIRS rose after the announcement, one-year swaps going to 4.55 percent from 4.5, in an obvious reflection of market disappointment with the extent of monetary easing.

"We expected a 50 basis points rate cut," said an interest rates trader in Seoul.

Overnight funding costs in dollars, euros and most major currencies have been falling steadily for weeks, after central bank injected billions of dollars of cash into markets and tried to eliminate credit risk by providing guarantees.

Yet credit markets are still frozen beyond the immediate short-term, with banks still reluctant to lend to each other, or to cut the cost of money for businesses.

In addition to the deleveraging that has plunged stock markets worldwide to new lows, anxiety about the sharp deterioration in global growth has heightened expectations for more rate cuts.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Citi readies for another round of layoffs: sources

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4A59MU20081106

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup is drawing up lists of employees in a division including investment banking who will be let go in another round of layoffs, people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

The layoffs are part of Citigroup's previously announced plans to reduce headcount by about 9,100 across the company by next October. The second-largest U.S. bank by assets has already eliminated about 23,000 positions this year.

Details of the upcoming round of layoffs in the institutional clients group have not been announced.

Some cuts will be in sales and trading and investment banking, and will be announced in coming weeks.

Reductions are expected in areas ranging from prime brokerage to structured finance to investment banking, according to people familiar with the matter.

Citigroup spokesman Dan Noonan declined to comment.

Citigroup has had several rounds of layoffs this year, and has cut positions outside these broader waves as well.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. After YEARS of warnings to the BFEE, Obama gets 30 days to "fix" the crisis

these people just piss me off!

Ten commandments for the first 30 days in office

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/06/ten-commandments-for-the-first-30-days-in-office/

There are two ways of viewing this debt crisis. One is that it is simply a temporary dislocation in the credit markets and a liquidity problem. The second is that it is a crisis triggered by subprime lending, accentuated because most people still can’t afford their houses, and compounded because almost every bad loan was highly leveraged. If it is the second type of crisis, one should remember: if trapped in a ditch full of debt, quit digging.

We are piling debt on debt. U.S. consumers are tapped out. Net household savings have gone negative. Corporate debt, particularly derivatives exposure, has reached truly dangerous levels. (Outstanding derivatives exceed $655 trillion. The U.S. economy is around $13 trillion). Government indebtedness is also approaching levels that exceed even those reached in the Depression and World War II. Add these three sources of debt together and the U.S. already owes almost four times its GDP. Now we are adding trillions in bailouts and face rocket-fueled mandatory spending programs. These trends may end up being fatal if we do not act. Right now.

For years, many have been warning, pleading, threatening. Now the crisis really is upon us. And because the numbers are so large, the Obama administration has a very narrow window, say thirty to sixty days, to send ten very clear signals and buy itself some financial breathing room.

First and foremost, Obama has to focus on the dollar. There is ever more pressure on rating agencies to question whether the U.S. remains a triple AAA credit risk given the current debt overhang. If U.S. debt is downgraded then a whole series of institutions could not hold T Bills and short sellers would begin to hunt. Maybe some of the same ones that brought down the British pound.

We have to send a very clear signal that we are going to begin to live within our means, spend what we earn, eventually begin to save. This requires a bipartisan program that makes both Democrats and Republicans most unhappy as we begin to restructure our debt.

We cannot save every dying whale. Everyone wants a handout. Some are essential. But we simply cannot afford most bailouts. We cannot spend a few hundred billion more, every week, without major consequences. Some banks, some major companies, cannot be saved.

...more...

put me in a room with this freak for 20 minutes - please

[Wednesdays]

127. And then after 30 days, if everything isn't completely booming,

Obama will be declared an utter failure. :banghead:

[DemReadingDU]

27. GMAC Demand Notes

GM Workers' Risky Savings Plan
Joann Muller 11.06.08, 7:11 PM ET

Detroit - It's bad enough that General Motors employees and retirees risk losing their jobs and their retirement benefits if the automaker runs out of cash and can't scare up more bailout money in Washington. But many insiders also are in danger of losing $3.9 billion in savings through an investment once deemed as good as cash.

These investments, called GMAC Demand Notes, have been marketed over the years as a safe place for GM employees, retirees and others to park their money. For as little as $1,000, investors could buy a note paying well above most money-market accounts. (The current rate is 5.25%.) Many GM insiders have squirreled away their college and retirement funds in these notes.

Although they offer the convenience of a money market account, with check-writing privileges, GMAC demand notes are, in fact, high-risk investments. They are unsecured short-term debt obligations. Unlike money market accounts or bank certificates of deposit, they are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. If GMAC goes under, those demand notes are wiped out.

Debt analyst Kathleen Shanley of Gimme Credit issued a special warning for investors holding GMAC Demand Notes Wednesday, after GMAC reported a $2.5 billion loss for the third quarter. "Folks, these are high-risk investments and not a safe place to park your cash. Please cash in your funds while you can and leave GMAC to the distressed debt investors. If you want to support GMAC, buy a FDIC-insured certificate of deposit in GMAC Bank instead." The good news is that it's easy to get out of these demand notes by writing a check for the entire balance.

Some investors have already caught on. Demand Note balances have fallen steadily from $6.6 billion at the end of last year, to $5.7 billion at the end of June, to $3.9 billion currently.

more...
http://www.forbes.com/manufacturing/2008/11/06/gm-gmac-workers-biz-manufacturing-cz_jm_1106gmac.html

[UpInArms]

28. Sprint posts quarterly loss, customers flee

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081107/bs_nm/us_sprint

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Sprint Nextel (S.N), the No. 3 U.S. mobile service, on Friday posted a quarterly loss and weaker revenue as customers fled to rival services.

Sprint reported a net loss of $326 million, or 11 cents a share, compared with a profit of $64 million, or 2 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding items it lost 12 cents a share compared with a profit of 7 cents a year earlier.

Revenue fell to $8.81 billion from $10.04 billion a year ago. Analysts on average expected revenue of $8.86 billion.

The company said it lost 1.1 million postpaid customers, who pay monthly bills. The average expectation was for a loss of 1.0 million postpaid users, according to five analysts surveyed by Reuters. Their estimates ranged from losses of 950,000 to 1.1 million.

Including postpaid and prepaid customers, who pay for calls in advance and do not commit to monthly contracts, Sprint lost 1.3 million customers in the quarter.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

29. Cerberus May Forfeit GMAC Control to Get Bank Status

11/6/08 Cerberus May Forfeit GMAC Control to Get Bank Status (Update2)
By Zachary R. Mider, Jonathan Keehner and Jason Kelly

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Cerberus Capital Management LP may forfeit control of GMAC LLC as part of a plan to convert the faltering auto-loan company into a bank with greater access to government funds, three people familiar with the matter said.

Cerberus is weighing a plan to distribute its GMAC stake to investors in its private-equity funds, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the deliberations aren't public. The tactic, one of several options under discussion, may enable Detroit-based GMAC to become a bank and get funding from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve without subjecting Cerberus to banking regulations.

Led by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. trader Stephen Feinberg, Cerberus is looking for ways to salvage its bet on the U.S. auto industry after automakers posted their lowest sales since 1991 in October and GMAC had a fifth straight quarterly loss. In related talks, the New York-based investment firm is pursuing a merger of Chrysler LLC, which it bought last year, with General Motors Corp.

``They may prefer losing control and preserving some value to maintaining control over an investment worth zero,'' said Jonathan Macey, a law professor at Yale University, of the GMAC investment. ``For this to succeed, Cerberus has to actually give up control, which is contrary to the private-equity strategy.''

A person with knowledge of Cerberus's plans said no decision has been made about GMAC's structure. The private- equity firm leads a group that bought a 51 percent stake in the auto lender from GM for $7.4 billion in 2006.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a1C80.w8.OsM&refer=us

[DemReadingDU]

63. GMAC Leaves Individuals Holding Car Lender's Junk

11/7/08 GMAC Leaves Individuals Holding Car Lender's Junk

GMAC LLC may leave thousands of individuals on the hook for about $15 billion of junk-rated debt unless the auto and home lender finds a way to pay its bills.

GMAC, the largest lender to car dealers of General Motors Corp., issued more than $25 billion of debt called SmartNotes over the past decade to retail investors. While GMAC has paid off the debts as they matured, five straight unprofitable quarters raised doubt about GMAC's survival, and SmartNotes due in July 2020 have lost about two-thirds of their value.

``An investment like this is totally unsuitable for the retail investor,'' said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania, who rates GMAC bonds junk, or below investment grade. ``You're selling it to the widows and orphans who think of GMAC as being this strong, long- standing corporation when the reality is far from that.''

GMAC's losses since mid-2007 total $7.9 billion, driven by record home foreclosures and auto sales that GM has called the worst since 1945. Stomaching some of Detroit-based GMAC's deficit are individuals who purchased SmartNotes through brokers at firms including Merrill Lynch & Co., Fidelity Investments and Citigroup Inc.'s Smith Barney unit.

Chuck Woodall, 66, who lives with his wife in Columbus, Ohio, amassed $200,000 of SmartNotes starting eight years ago, and they now equal about 25 percent of his investments. At the time, the securities were rated investment-grade and they paid more interest than government bonds or certificates of deposit. They also were backed by Detroit-based GM, the biggest U.S. automaker.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAnarKd91B3E&refer=home

[gopbuster]

31. Possible Support Level.......

$INDU

200 monthly simple moving average - 8501

Uptrend Short Term Accumulation T-line (to set the coil) - 8400 area

Long term uptrend t-line - 3500 area


EOM

[ozone_man]

41. 3500 might be a good buy.

Maybe it'll get there in another 2 or 3 years.

[AnneD]

35. Morning Marketeers..........

:donut: and lurkers. Galveston in in danger of becoming a victim of the shock doctrine. Within a two day period, it became known that they were serious about possibly closing the UTMB hospital and the med school. Today, it has been rumoured that they want to open 2 casinos to draw tourist. Now, UTMB was the largest employer on the island, a good teaching hospital for the region, and they paid well. So what do the want to do? Close that and substitute it for minimum wage jobs. They want to remake the island into another NOLA. I am sending letters out now and I hope all the folks around the island start raising their voices in protest now esp the alumni of UTMB. I just can't believe it. Naomi is right-we're being robbed!!!!!

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

Edited to add...no offense to NOLA, but one in the region is enough-you guys have jazz and we wouldn't dream of taking that.

[Hugin]

37. I figured it was in the wind...

In fact, that very thing crossed my mind when I saw Louisiana go red Tuesday night.

[cal04]

36. Unemployment rate leaps to 14-year high of 6.5%

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a 14-year high of 6.5% in October as nearly a quarter million jobs were lost, the Labor Department reported Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 240,000 in October following a revised decline of 284,000 in September, which was the largest job loss in seven years. So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost, with 651,000 coming in just the past three months. The October employment report was much worse than expected. Economists thought the jobless rate would rise to 6.3% from 6.1% in September, and expected job losses of around 210,000 in October

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDFE78936%2DAE62%2D4070%2D8C0B%2D1060A43AAC62%7D

8:30 a.m.
U.S. 2008 unemployment rises by 2.8 million
8:30 a.m.
U.S. Sept. nonfarm payrolls revised to 284,000 loss
8:30 a.m.
U.S. Oct. alternative jobless rate rises to 11.8%
8:30 a.m.
U.S. 2008 payrolls fall by 1.18 milllion jobs
8:30 a.m.
U.S. Oct. average hourly earnings up 0.2%
8:30 a.m.
U.S. Oct. unemployment rate rises to 6.5%, 14-year high
8:30 a.m.
U.S. Oct. nonfarm payrollls fall 240,000 vs 210,000 expected

Unemployment rate leaps to 14-year high 6.5%
Payrolls fall 240,000 in October; September losses much worse than thought
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Unemployment-rate-leaps-14-year/story.aspx?guid=%7B14EA3B7E%2D71D9%2D4321%2D9404%2D93979272C8A1%7D

[UpInArms]

52. Is the Treasury trying to find another way to hand out money?

01. Treasury request part of effort to reduce failed trades
9:15 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

02. Treasury wants information on a 2-yr note and a 5-yr notes
9:15 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

03. Treasury calls for large position reports on two securities
9:15 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

[UpInArms]

54. market open with a hurray for no jobs!

Dow 8,831.43 135.64 (1.56%)
Nasdaq 1,631.40 22.70 (1.41%)
S&P 500 917.00 12.12 (1.34%)
10-Yr Bond 3.736% 0.029

NYSE Volume 147,441,093.75
Nasdaq Volume 60,386,335.938

[Hugin]

55. Yes, Prag's Law is in effect...

The inverse response of the Markets to bad news for the Middle-class.

Should be a doozy of a rally today.

Maybe we should just call it now and spend the rest of the day drinking Cocktails.

I'll have a Bloody Mary with an extra stalk of the Celery.

[UpInArms]

57. a splash of Tanq in tonic with a twist of lime

:hi:

[Hugin]

60. Good choice.

:toast:

:cheers:

My youngest Cherub swears by Strawberry Smoothies in the morning... or well, anytime really.


:hi:

I'm off to watch Wednesday's SMW YouTubes I missed.

[Dr.Phool]

66. A little Stoli, orange juice, and cranberry juice.

:toast:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

71. I have discovered...

Langers Pomegranate-Cranberry and Pom-Blueberry. They are so good, I am thankful they did not exist in my drinking days. They would have hastened my death.

[Dr.Phool]

74. I usually drink some things like that in the morning.

Without the alcohol of course.

[Hugin]

90. Every time I find a commercial juice beverage I like...

the Company that makes it sells out and they stop producing it.

Happened with Fuze Dragon Fruit... SoBe Yumberry...

I'm a curse to juices.

So far tho, they haven't gotten to my (Dare I mention it?) L&A Hibiscus Cooler.
No, it's not really chock full of vitamins or anything, but, it's defined as organic and
it doesn't have any corn syrup in it.

[AnneD]

89. I normally like Lime Marguerite's

but I have been on a mango kick like Mango Mojitoes, Marguerite's, etc. A spicy Bloody Mary sounds good too.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

94. I used to make the best Bloody Marys.

I did little things like mixed everything together, including horseradish and habanero hot sauce(although I would imagine Sriracha would rule) before I added the vodka and Tomato Juice. Then, in a fit of experimentation, I used Clamato and Wasabi.

Oh yes. Oh yes, indeed.

On edit: crushed celery seed, not celery salt.

[Hugin]

96. So, there -is- a practical application for...

Clamato.

I had always wondered.

Yes! It's all so clear to me now!

[Dr.Phool]

103. A bar I used to go to, that was their specialty drink.

They called it a Bloody Caesar. A Clamato based Bloody Mary.

Or during clambake season, take fresh clam broth, some tomato juice and vodka. Deeelicious!

[Robbien]

59. Shipowners Idle 20% of Bulk Vessels

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- At least 20 percent of the vessels most commonly hired to haul coal and ore are sitting empty as steelmakers cut output and dwindling trade credit halts deliveries

Fifty to 100 so-called capesizes, each bigger than The Trump Building in New York, have been unable to find cargoes or their owners won't accept rental rates that have plunged 98 percent in five months . . . Capesizes that were attracting rates of $233,988 a day as recently as June are now available for $4,793.

Of the $13.6 trillion of goods traded worldwide, 90 percent rely on letters of credit or related forms of financing and guarantees such as trade credit insurance.

. . .

As many as 20 percent of shipping lines are at risk of breaching their loan accords because the decline in rents has caused a similar plunge in ship prices, Tufton Oceanic Ltd., the world's largest shipping-hedge fund group, said last month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEzXqSxzYHtE&refer=home

[Robbien]

61. Merger costs gobble up Wendy's profit

Tough economic times are supposed to provide discount diners with fresh opportunities to grow their businesses. Yet Wendy's, the third-largest burger chain, has just reported a slight dip in third-quarter revenue, not to mention a loss on charges related to its recent takeover by billionaire Nelson Peltz.

Wendy's reported a loss of just under US$30-million for the third quarter, down from a profit of roughly US$30-million in the same period last year. Sales dipped to about US$625-million from US$630-million.

The loss is primarily due to some US$68.5-million in fees and charges related to the Peltz deal.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpposted/archive/2008/11/06/lean-times-merger-nibble-into-wendy-s-profit.aspx

[UpInArms]

62. JPMorgan sees consumer loan defaults rising

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0739227320081107

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Friday it expects consumer loan defaults to increase in the current quarter and sees higher loan loss provisions.

The bank has more than $395 billion in consumer loans, with the largest chunk in home equity. Mortgages, credit cards and auto loans are also in the portfolio, according to a filing with regulators on Friday.

"Given the potential stress on the consumer from rising unemployment, the continued downward pressure on housing prices and the elevated national inventory of unsold homes, management remains extremely cautious," the bank said in the filing.

It warned that home equity loans and more risky mortgages made since 2006 make up a large chunk of its portfolio, and defaults are rising as home prices continue to fall.

JPMorgan expects charge-offs of bad loans in its home lending portfolio to increase in the current quarter and into 2009, the filing said.

The bank's mortgage portfolio has performed better than those of some of its rivals because JPMorgan did not made as many of the more risky types of loans that caused massive writedowns at other banks such as Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

JPMorgan has $18.2 billion of risky mortgages known as subprime, including $4.7 billion of subprime loans acquired when it bought Washington Mutual in September.

...more...

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

65. I don't think this bargain hunter rally will last the day

It'll fizzle out and reality will set in.

[Dr.Phool]

68. Reality?

On Wall Street?

I think right now, you could stand in front of the NYSE and sell the Brooklyn Bridge to a couple of them. They'd try to securitize it and sell it to Paulson.

[Gen. Jack D. Ripper]

84. Hey, that's a good idea

I wonder how much I could get for the Brooklyn Bridge...

[antigop]

72. OK, is it just me or is the Transition Economic Advisory Team missing someone?

Here are the members...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/07/barack-obama-teab-advisors

I don't see a particular group represented here. Anyone else notice that?

[Dr.Phool]

76. I see maybe one "liberal" on there. Robert Reich.

I don't see Mr. Nobel Krugman.

I don't see George Soro's.

And I sure the hell don't want to see Greenspan, or Paulson, or Bernanke.

[antigop]

78. Where is the representation for labor?

OK, Robert Reich was Secretary of Labor under Clinton, but that's about it.

Economists, politicians, business people-- what about us grunts?

[Dr.Phool]

80. I noticed that also.

Maybe people should contact their union headquarters and tell them to demand inclusion.

We did elect and fund him.

[antigop]

81. You betcha! (Sorry for the Palinism). n/t

[UpInArms]

73. 11:09 EST - General Motors shares halted

01. General Motors shares halted
11:09 AM ET, Nov 07, 2008

[UpInArms]

77. General Motors Q3 net loss $2.5 bln vs loss of $42.5 bln

1 minute ago General Motors Q3 net loss $2.5 bln vs loss of $42.5 bln - MarketWatch

2 minutes ago General Motors Q3 net loss $4.45 - MarketWatch

Great News!

They're doing better!

Now tell them to quit trying to take the taxpayers' money away and to STFU.

[Festivito]

82. Debt: 11/05/2008 10,566,870,637,263.30 (UP 724,440,772.80) (Up a little.)

(Almost two weeks since the 700B$ borrowing spree. Only one day of high borrowing. Rest was small potatoes.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,302,458,417,616.34 + 4,264,412,219,647.01
DOWN 77,530,396.02 + UP 801,971,168.79
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 17,300,074,093.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 12,686,721,002.14.
The average for the last 33 days would be 11,533,382,729.22.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 25 reports in 36 days of FY2009 averaging 21.69B$ per report, 15.06B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 76 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/05/2008 10,566,870,637,263.30 GWB (UP 4,838,674,841,081.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 542,145,740,350.90 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $902,238,834,004.23 in last 48 days.
That's 902B$ in 48 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 89% of that highest year ever only in 48 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 48 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3586480&mesg_id=3586524

[Festivito]

119. Debt: 11/06/2008 10,624,730,227,798.20 (UP 57,859,590,534.90) (Kaboom, Up.)

(As though they waited for the Friday dump by borrowing heavily on Thursday.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,998,910,837.97 + 4,265,731,316,960.28
UP 56,540,493,221.63 + UP 1,319,097,313.27
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 19,862,540,017.70.
The average for the last 30 days would be 14,565,862,679.65.
The average for the last 31 days would be 14,095,996,141.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 26 reports in 37 days of FY2009 averaging 23.08B$ per report, 16.22B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 75 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/06/2008 10,624,730,227,798.20 GWB (UP 4,896,534,431,616.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 600,005,330,885.80 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $960,098,424,539.13 in last 49 days.
That's 960B$ in 49 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 49 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 49 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3588436&mesg_id=3588915

[Festivito]

138. Test and placekeeper post.

Had to delete my DU cookie manually.

[Festivito]

139. Placekeeper for Monday morning.

[antigop]

85. Goldman forecasting biggest rise in joblessness since WWII

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Goldman-forecasting-biggest-rise-joblessness/story.aspx?guid={C174CCA5-803B-4656-9340-5591106B08D8}&dist=hplatest

The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.5% by the end of next year and inch even higher in early 2010, economists for Goldman Sachs wrote Friday. The cumulative trough-to-peak increase of more than 4 percentage points in the jobless rate would be the most since World War II, they said. Goldman analysts lowered growth forecasts for the next three quarters, and said they now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its interest rate target to 0.50% by December. "The main reason for these changes is the accumulation of evidence that U.S. domestic demand and production are dropping sharply," they wrote. "We do not see a resumption of anything close to trend growth before 2010."

[snot]

87. Thought you might enjoy this . . .

been out of town or i'd have posted it sooner: me in drag as Henry Paulson-cum-Lurch (for Halloween; made the mask myself). A few people actually recognized me; and I frightened several children.

[Hugin]

91. Eerie!

:lol:


http://www.eerie.com/

[DemReadingDU]

95. GM Says It May Run Out of Operating Cash This Year

11/7/08
GM Says It May Run Out of Operating Cash This Year (Update2)

By Jeff Green and Mike Ramsey

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., seeking federal aid to avoid collapse, said it may not have enough cash to keep operating this year and will fall ``significantly short'' of the amount needed by the end of June unless the auto market improves or it raises more capital.

The largest U.S. automaker reported a $4.2 billion third- quarter operating loss today and said its available cash fell to $16.2 billion on Sept. 30 from $21 billion at the end of June. Merger talks with Chrysler LLC were suspended.

``GM is making a pretty direct plea for help,'' said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Keegan Inc. in Memphis, Tennessee. ``The message is, `we've done all the things we can do, and we need help.' And if we don't get help, fill in the blank.''

The cash drain reflected the strain of a 21 percent slump in U.S. sales in the quarter as the credit freeze deepened. It also added urgency to U.S. automakers' request for government aid. The companies are asking for $50 billion in new loans, a person familiar with the proposal said.

Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner and the CEOs of Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler met yesterday with U.S. House and Senate leaders in Washington. Wagoner said GM also has been in contact with the staff of President-elect Barack Obama.

GM fell 58 cents, or 12 percent, to $4.22 at 1:53 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares tumbled 81 percent this year through yesterday.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPtO113gTIUs&refer=home


edit to add CNN link:

GM: Almost out of cash
No. 1 automaker posts huge loss - says it has made case to Washington for rescue.
...most shocking news came in its statements about its cash position. GM said it had burned through $6.9 billion during the quarter and warned that it "will approach the minimum amount necessary to operate its business" during the current quarter.
In addition, the company said that in the first half of next year its "estimated liquidity will fall significantly short" of what it needs to continue operating. It said the only thing that would save it would be a significant improvement in economic and automotive industry conditions, help from the federal government, better access to capital markets or some combination of those options.
more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/07/news/companies/gm/index.htm?postversion=2008110714

[Dr.Phool]

102. I don't see the automobile market improving over the next year.

I'm not against a bailout under strict conditions. And I doubt any of the Big Three would go along with my conditions.

1) Taxpayers given MAJORITY voting equity in the companies.

2) Get rid of most senior management. They've proven for decade after decade that they're incapable of running the companies.

3) Bring manufacturing jobs BACK to the US.

4) When they turn the corner, make decent, efficient cars, and are making a profit with American workers, then they can have it back.

I'm not for using US funds to build plants and ship jobs overseas.

[antigop]

97. Marketeers, I stand corrected. Obama's Transition Economic Advisory Team has labor represented

Bonoir is Chairman of American Rights at Work and may become Secretary of Labor.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2008/11/bonoir_leads_names_floated_for.html

One of the key elements of any economic recovery in 2009 is job creation. Another is job retention -- figuring out which jobs stay in the U.S. and which go overseas.

Which means the Labor Secretary under an Obama administration will play a key role in helping -- or hindering -- a recovery.

Post reporter Mike Fletcher reports that one name being promoted by union leaders is former House Democratic Whip David E. Bonoir (D-Mich.), chairman of American Rights at Work, a non-profit that pushes for the rights of workers to form unions and for stricter enforcement of worker safety provisions.

Bonoir will be part of Obama's skull session in Chicago tomorrow, preceding his afternoon address on the economy, possibly giving him an inside track on the Labor job.

[Hugin]

98. Good.

Thanks for the update, antigop.

:)

[UpInArms]

105. Obama addresses the economic issues:

03. Obama says focus needed on job creation
3:01 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

06. Obama says he'll review Bush's program to stabilize markets
2:58 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

07. Obama says fiscal stimulus plan needed
2:56 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

08. Obama: must act 'swiftly' to resolve economic crisis
2:55 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

09. Obama says U.S. needs middle class rescue plan
2:55 PM ET, Nov 07, 2008

[Dr.Phool]

106. Well, it's 3:30. Do I hear the dive claxon sounding?

[UpInArms]

107. Greenscam admits he's clueless and says the US is sinking (like the Titanic)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0750611620081107

excerpt:

"It's clear, just looking at the trend in the monthly gross domestic product, it's sliding at an over 3 percent annual rate, and indeed the early data for October suggest that it's even more severe than that," he said.

"We know we're going down, and there's very little we can do about that."

<snip>

"It's important that we not replicate in the non-financial area the type of subsidization that we, of necessity, were required to do to stabilize the financial system, which has at its root the fundamentals of systemic risk," Greenspan said. Individual industries do not have that same risk, he added.

If the "appropriate use" of sovereign credit can stabilize the financial system and stock markets bottom, then people will start to seek more risky investments, he said.

The current stock market pattern has "all the characteristics of a bottom" but that may not be the case, he said.

"It may just be another stage before you go down again. I'm not going to forecast where we're going, because I frankly don't have a clue."

...more at link...

[Dr.Phool]

109. He's speaking in Greenspanish again. How many words does it take to say, "Duh"?

More gobbledy-gook.

[Wednesdays]

129. Hey, he probably reads this one web page too much

(The page produces "original essays," but key words are all random. The essays "sound" intelligent, though, 'cause the page chooses the "right" buzzwords.)

http://www.elsewhere.org/pomo/

[UpInArms]

135. couldn't get much past this part

In the works of Madonna, a predominant concept is the concept of precultural culture. Marx uses the term ‘capitalist theory’ to denote a self-justifying whole. In a sense, Derrida suggests the use of dialectic theory to deconstruct class divisions.

If subsemioticist deconstruction holds, we have to choose between capitalist theory and neotextual libertarianism. But the primary theme of the works of Madonna is the difference between class and narrativity.

Sontag promotes the use of the modernist paradigm of expression to read sexual identity. In a sense, any number of narratives concerning subsemioticist deconstruction exist.

Debord suggests the use of poststructuralist narrative to attack hierarchy. Therefore, an abundance of discourses concerning a pretextual reality may be revealed.

The subject is interpolated into a that includes sexuality as a paradox. It could be said that Humphrey<4> suggests that we have to choose between poststructuralist narrative and cultural situationism.

Derrida uses the term ’subsemioticist deconstruction’ to denote the role of the observer as participant. Therefore, Baudrillard promotes the use of the subtextual paradigm of discourse to deconstruct and analyse class.

The subject is contextualised into a that includes truth as a totality. But the characteristic theme of Geoffrey’s<5> critique of subsemioticist deconstruction is a mythopoetical whole.

[ozymandius]

112. It may be. Then it may not be. For what does this fucker get paid?

We get more clarity from a Magic 8 ball.

[Left Brain]

111. Hey Ozy?

I can't wait to see how the top of the OP on the SMW thread is gonna look once Obama is inaugurated.

Anything special in mind?

[ozymandius]

113. A slight change has already been made.

The 'Democracy Died' day count ended with Obama's thundering win. Other numbers will be coming down too, hopefull replaced with something just as poignant. I don't know what the LegitGov people have in mind. My view is that Bushco should be hounded with protests until they're dust.

[Demeter]

125. Protests? Indictments!

We must start getting some justice around here for victims of white collar and war crimes....

[ozymandius]

131. I love indictments.

Even better.... convictions. All in due time. This will be better than Reagan's parade of felons.

[Left Brain]

128. "You Betcha!"

Here's to 1/20/09, and thanks for all the hard work you and the DU SMW "team" put in on this most important thread every day.


:toast:

[RobertSeattle]

114. WTF happened during Obama's Presser?

DJIA went way back down and then back up again. Someone playing with us?

[ozymandius]

118. Always.

Strategic buys trigger more buys from automated buy programs.

[Hugin]

121. Check out this post on Yesterday's SMW for an answer...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3586480&mesg_id=3586555

It's the clearest description I've seen so far.

[Wednesdays]

130. Maybe Obama ought to abolish the PPT

If that's the case.

[ozymandius]

117. The Closer.

I think I hear "We'll All Go Down Together" by Billy Joel coming from somewhere.

Dow 8,943.81 Up 248.02 (2.85%)
Nasdaq 1,647.40 Up 38.70 (2.41%)
S&P 500 930.99 Up 26.11 (2.89%)
10-Yr Bond 3.7800% Up 0.0730
NYSE Volume 4,977,652,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,933,071,120

4:25 pm : Stocks finished the week on a positive note, recovering from the worst two-session drop in more than 20 years. Despite another round of weak economic and earnings data, buyers entered the action to bid depressed prices higher.

Nonfarm payrolls declined 240,000 in October, lifting the unemployment rate to a 14-year high of 6.5%. That was up from 6.1% the month before. The decline in October payrolls marked the 10th consecutive monthly decline.

Job losses are mounting in the face of dim business prospects and a gloomy economic outlook. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated that he sees economic weakness at least through the first half of 2009, and higher unemployment.

Supporting that conclusion, Ford (F 2.02, +0.04) stated it will layoff an additional 10% of its salaried workforce. That announcement was paired with another paltry quarterly performance, in which the company posted a loss and burned through $7.7 billion in cash. General Motors (GM 4.36, -0.44) also posted ugly quarterly results, but burned through $6.9 billion during the quarter. Given the performance, GM is suspending talks with privately held Chrysler to concentrate on its financial health. Meanwhile, Ford had its credit rating cut to Caa1 from B3, with a negative outlook at Moody's.

Weak economic conditions are dampening prospects in several other industries as well. Qualcomm (QCOM 35.66, +2.61) posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for its latest quarter, but issued downside guidance.

Entertainment and broadcasting company Walt Disney (DIS 23.36, +0.55) also stated it expects some challenges in fiscal 2009. Disney missed the consensus earnings per share estimate when it reported its latest quarterly results.

Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs (GS 77.78, -2.94) and Morgan Stanley (MS 15.98, +0.59) had their respective earnings estimates cut by analysts at JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (WFC 29.50, +0.73) spent most of the session lower after it issued an $11 billion capital raise priced at $27 per share, which is a 6% discount to the prior session's closing price.

The financial sector was an underperformer for the majority of the session, but late buying interest pulled the sector up from a loss of 1.3% to finish near its session high, up 2.0%.

Microsoft (MSFT 21.50, +0.62) provided leadership to the tech sector after it stated that it has no interest in making a bid for Yahoo! (YHOO 12.20, -1.76). Yahoo stated just yesterday that it is a good fit for Microsoft and would sell itself for the right price.

Exxon-Mobil (XOM 73.95, +4.39) was a key performer this session, providing leadership to both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. Exxon's gains came as oil prices made a modest 0.5% advance. Crude futures finished the session near $61.00 per barrel.

Despite the fact much of the day's troubling news came before the opening bell, stocks still spent the entire session in the green. A couple of rounds of selling pressure early and late in the session threatened to undercut the stock market's advance, but a concerted buying effort helped stocks finish near session highs. Friday's advance softened the impact of losses earlier in the week; the stock market slipped 3.9% for the week. Volume was relatively light during Friday's advance.DJ30 +248.02 NASDAQ +38.70 NQ100 +2.4% R2K +2.0% SP400 +2.5% SP500 +26.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1698/1.93 bln/1045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2124/1.26 bln/932

[Demeter]

126. Coming Soon (I'm Tired This Week) It's Weekend Economists!

With 62 emails to rummage through for useful information, AFTER I fix dinner....it should be a meaty compendium of bread and butter issues, done to a turn, with a dash of spice, and not as much alcohol as this thread carries, although a glass of red sounds good right now....


I should never post when I'm hungry. See you there, in the Editorial Section!

[ozymandius]

132. Everyone's tired. This is always worth reading and contributing.

See you there later.