STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 12, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 69
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2575 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2866
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 11, 2008

Dow... 8,693.96 -176.58 (-1.99%)
Nasdaq... 1,580.90 -35.84 (-2.22%)
S&P 500... 898.95 -20.26 (-2.20%)
Gold future... 732.80 -13.70 (-1.84%)
30-Year Bond 4.21% -0.01 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.76% -0.01 (-0.13%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Seeking Neutral Ground
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

In today’s Wrap Up, I want to start by acknowledging all of the rotten and miserable things that are taking place in the economic/financial world. Retail Sales are in a head long nose dive - the worst decline in years, car sales have collapsed, consumer confidence is plumbing the depths of 50 year lows, unemployment is skyrocketing, the banks are loaded with bad debt, central bank liquidity has exploded, and worse, outwardly none of it appears to be having much affect as the central bank ‘money printing’ seems to be disappearing into the ‘black hole’ of a bottomless debt trap. At times, of late, it has truly felt like ‘the sky is falling’ and that the soup lines of the Great Depression are dead ahead. Perhaps this will be so, and perhaps Deflation will carry the day leading the global economy into a self-reinforcing downward spiral of ‘beggar thy neighbor’ currency devaluations, rising protectionism and contracting global trade. Perhaps, everything will be undone.

For me, the fear of this collapse had been a daily rumination for all of 2005, 2006, and 2007. For anyone who knew me personally all during that time, I was one of the few very negative, and at times, very lonely super bears. It just seemed that the credit bubble had to bust, and that housing prices were due for a terrible hard landing. At many times, the very thought of a housing bust seemed inconceivable -- as to most people back then, you were a lunatic to even question whether Real Estate would ever come down.

.....

Our goal today in writing this piece is to help investors find a measure of ‘pause’ and perhaps restraint to help seek middle ground. Remember, things always look really lousy at major market bottoms, and even at some important medium term bottoms. When we update the chart of the Shanghai Composite now, let’s see how things appear a bit over a year later. To begin with, the market has indeed crashed from above 6,000 to a recent close near 1664, for a total decline of 72.82% in just over 12 months. That is no small move to the downside, and is a move which has inflicted enormous pain on the mainland Chinese population, which only a year ago was wheeling and dealing in stocks with wreckless abandon.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[tclambert]

17. 2 questions.

What is CMT? When I googled it I got Country Music Television. Something tells me that's not it.

Now that things have gotten this bad, are you still a superbear predicting even worse? Or are you hopeful a new administration will stop the slide and turn the lines on the graphs upward again?

[ozymandius]

19. CMT = Chartered Market Technician

A professional designation given by the Market Technicians Association (MTA) to financial professionals who prove their proficiency in technical analysis.

As for the second question - that's a big one and I'm short on time. Maybe one of our fellow Marketeers could take a swing at that.

Thank you for asking. :hi:

[Demeter]

85. The New Administration Can Either Ease the Pain, or Make It Worse

Nothing short of nuclear annihilation will stop the bursting of this bubble (because annihilation would leave no one left to care).

We are paying the price of letting two great fools and a lot of lesser crooks have free rein in our economy: Alan Greenspan and GWBush, plus all the products of American B Schools who decided to take up a life of crime, er, high finance, lo these many years.

In order to be fair to Shrub, I should point out that Reagan started it, or even Nixon when he took us off the quasi-gold standard, but W was the master thief.

And the way the new Administration eases the pain is Jobs, jobs, jobs. Jobs doing useful work: infrastructure, education, public health.

Unlike Bush and Paulson's "throw money at the bankers" plan, Obama must inevitably concentrate on

1) getting the stolen goods back from them that took them via prosecution and/or taxation.

2) stopping the continued stealing by regulating banks and quasi-banks to within an inch of their lives.

3) investing in America= stopping the foolish wars and illegal occupations + govt. paid universal health care + rebuilding roads, bridges, power systems, schools, whatever is falling down + public health and safety (air, water and soil pollution elimination and amelioration, FDA, OSHA, EPA, all those things the GOP has been destroying since they were created and proven effective, in other words, regulation!)

And above all, restoring our Constitution, rights, treaties, the Dept. of Justice, the courts, etc.

That ought to keep a lot of good people off the streets working hard and making a living for at least 4 years, and put some not so good people behind bars for a lot longer.

And the economy shall follow.

[tclambert]

108. I like that answer. Thanks.

I agree, the top three economic priorities should be jobs, jobs, and third, more jobs.

Now, I heard an interesting hypothesis a while back, okay, decades back, and it was from a science fiction writer, if I recall right. It was that the government could give the economy a little boost by creating jobs that don't even do anything particularly useful, like building a pyramid. Sounds crazy. But workers spend their incomes in ways that produce more jobs. Stores, restaurants, and entertainment facilities would spring up around the pyramid construction site, and wherever they're quarrying the stone. And it wouldn't be completely useless. It would become a tourist attraction even while under construction, like Mt. Rushmore. NASA used to try to justify the Moon program with the economic benefits spun off from it.

I'm not recommending President Obama order the building of a mile high pyramid, or a pyramid on Mars. Roads, bridges, windmills, solar cell plants, things like that sound a lot more practical.

[clixtox]

35. Certified Massage Technician

Which is what a lot of the CMTs soothsaying in the financial sphere employ to relieve all of the stress in the credit market(s)!

[Ghost Dog]

63. What a strong statement in that last paragraph.

In looking ahead, it is absolutely clear that the secular baton of economic leadership is being passed off from the United States to China. Yet perhaps with a strengthening China, the entire global economy will be better able to find a “muttle through” scenario. While the strength of the present bust is likely to be enduring for some time, we at points along the way, may be at least open to the possibility of other potential outcomes, and right now the excess layer of thick gloom which now prevails has my stock market ‘basic instinct’ shifting its bias. For now, I am “seeking neutral ground”.

I, for one, see no reason why US citizens should feel excessively 'threatened' by this no doubt inevitable trend. If the US people could only, at last, just step back from their longstanding seeming self-centred fearfulness, which has tended to provoke an excess of defensive/aggressive posturing, and just take a long, hard look at the very many very positive outcomes that could come to pass were all, or at least most of the most weighty, of the diverse cultures of the world find themselves able to operate on the economic, and of course on the ecological, levels more closely in concert, in alliance, tempering healthy competition with mutual aid and cooperation.

On a related note, I find it sociologically interesting that, in 'Western' media, "the threat of job losses and social unrest" in China is frequently mentioned, while "social unrest" appears to be seen as highly unlikely in the US - a society until quite recently once, I would say, quite renowned for its social rebelliousness.

I find such food for thought fascinating. Perhaps I'm reading far too much ancient, old and medieval history, recently.

[TrogL]

69. "muttle" is not a word. It's "muddle through"

[Ghost Dog]

79. I thought that too. But a quote's a quote...

Can you see US markets the next day being led by movements in China markets overnight, yet?

[Demeter]

87. Frankly, No

China doesn't play nice. They would much rather supply their own than engage in the give and take of globalism, and the recurring melamine adulterations are especially troubling.

China will lead the rest of the world to isolate it until it follows basic principles of quality, fairness, and human rights.

I don't see globalism continuing, either, on the scale that corporations were trying to erect. Some trade in local monopoly items is always occuring, but treating workers like interchangable widgets and chasing pennies of profit through transcontinental shipping of items that could and should be produced locally will not continue.

[Ghost Dog]

99. I agree with you, Demeter.

Although I do see that the Chinese government is genuinely trying to do what's both required and right. Must be one hell of a task.

However, the sheer weight and cohesion of the Chinese people is such that their economic preponderance will rapidly, I believe, to the degree that they well-organise themselves, come to predominate in world economic affairs.

From my reading of history, throughout and since indeed before recorded history every other people in the world that has come into contact with China has never ceased to be awe-inspired. Deeply interwoven into the fundaments of the well-organised international trade of such as the Sumerian, Greek, Persian, Roman, Islamic and European trading empires, for example, there was always the lure, the almost overwhelmingly magical mystique of the wonderful material and cultural products of China.

And of course of India...

But perhaps I digress...

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today

They're due again on Thursday.

[UpInArms]

28. Third quarter home values drop for 7th straight quarter

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081112/us_nm/us_usa_economy_housing;_ylt=AkLW9LKpDUK1L4HXaYj_.zVv24cA

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Home values in the United States posted their seventh consecutive quarterly decline, with nearly one-third of Americans who sold in the past year losing money, real estate website Zillow.com said on Wednesday.

Home values fell 9.7 percent year-over-year in the third quarter to a Zillow Home Value Index of $202,966, according to the third quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, which encompass 163 metropolitan areas.

Home values have dropped a total 12.8 percent since the market peaked in 2006. Year-over-year declines in the second quarter were 8.8 percent, indicating that price drops continued to accelerate in the third quarter, the reports showed.

The continued declines in value are causing more homeowners to sell their homes for less than the original purchase price.

Over the past 12 months, 30.2 percent of homes sold were sold for a loss, up from 23.7 percent at the end of the second quarter. In 17 markets -- 14 of them in California -- more than half of homes sold in the past year were sold for a loss, the reports showed.

The percentage of homeowners with negative equity remained fairly steady from the second to the third quarter, however, as more foreclosures were completed and as median down payments rose in 61 markets. One in seven, or 14.3 percent, of all homeowners across the country has negative equity, and of homeowners who bought in the last five years, almost one-third, or 29.5 percent, are 'under water', the reports showed.

...more...

Not a report, but why would they want stuff like this to make into the financial economists purview?

[Demeter]

88. Ann Arbor's Housing Market is Down 20%

according to the local fishwrap.

[UpInArms]

101. I always wanted to enter that wonderful art show - but alas and alack

never wanted to part with the jury and the entry fee - so I guess that will be one that is just like the Omaha Summer Arts - someone you want to date and not marry?

[Demeter]

102. There Are Multiple Art Shows Going On Simultaneously

There might be one to suit your budget. I don't think all of them are juried, but I could be wrong...

It's always the hottest week of the year, though, if it doesn't blow so hard the tents disappear and the rains drown everybody. Usually both.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil slips below $59 on global growth pessimism

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped below $59 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as investors come to grips with the prospect that global growth next year will slow more than originally feared, cutting demand for crude products such as gasoline.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down 60 cents to $58.73 a barrel, after falling as low as $58.55, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract overnight fell $3.08 to settle at $59.33, the lowest closing price since March 2007.

....

Investors will be watching for signs of slowing U.S. demand in the weekly oil inventories report to be released Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. The petroleum supply report was expected to show that oil stocks rose 1.1 million barrels last week, according to the average of estimates in a survey of analysts by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Platts survey also showed that analysts projected gasoline inventories rose 850,000 million barrels and distillates increased 1 million barrels last week.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.6 cent to $1.93 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained 1.1 cents to $1.32 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery fell 0.8 cents to $6.69 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

10. RBOB Gas down to $1.289

[Demeter]

89. $1.95 This Week

Truly, I never expected it to drop below $2, ever again.

[ozymandius]

4. Barclays shareholders revolt over capital injection: FT

LONDON (AFP) – Major Barclays shareholders have threatened to vote against the bank's bid to raise seven billion pounds (11 billion dollars, 8.5 billion euros) from Middle Eastern investors, it was reported Wednesday.

...

The bank announced the capital raising at the end of last month, as an alternative to accepting a bail-out from the British government.

The cash injection would see Sheikh Al Nahyan, a new investor, owning as much as 16.3 percent of Barclays, while the Gulf state of Qatar could ramp up its stake from 8.1 percent to 15.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081112/bs_afp/financeeconomybritainbankingcompanybarclays

[ozymandius]

5. Critics say new federal mortgage plan not enough

WASHINGTON – Once again, the government has offered another plan to help troubled homeowners. Once again, critics say it doesn't go far enough. The plan announced Tuesday by federal officials and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sounds sweeping in its approach: Borrowers would get reduced interest rates or longer loan terms to make their payments more affordable.

But there's a catch. The plan focuses on loans Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee. They are the dominant players in the U.S. mortgage market but represent only 20 percent of delinquent loans.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said the plan "falls short of what is needed to achieve wide-scale modifications of distressed mortgages."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081112/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_mortgages

[ozymandius]

6. Lobbyists Swarm the Treasury for a Helping of the Bailout Pie

WASHINGTON — When the government said it would spend $700 billion to rescue the nation’s financial industry, it seemed to be an ocean of money. But after one of the biggest lobbying free-for-alls in memory, it suddenly looks like a dwindling pool.

...

Of the initial $350 billion that Congress freed up, out of the $700 billion in bailout money contained in the law that passed last month, the Treasury Department has committed all but $60 billion. The shrinking pie — and the growing uncertainty over who qualifies — has thrown Washington’s legal and lobbying establishment into a mad scramble.

...

The lobbying frenzy worries many traditional bankers — the original targets of the rescue program — who fear that it could blur, or even undermine, the government’s effort to stabilize the financial system after its worst crisis since the 1930s.

Among the most rattled are community bankers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/business/economy/12lobbying.html?bl&ex=1226638800&en=f24a9509e53ce37f&ei=5087%0A

[ozymandius]

14. Pelosi Calls for `Emergency' Aid to U.S. Automakers

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wants ``immediate action'' to give automakers additional aid ... The failure of ``one or more of the major American automobile manufacturers'' would have a ``devastating impact on our economy,'' Pelosi said in a statement.

...

She didn't specify the level of assistance she supports, but said it should come from the $700 billion Congress authorized the Treasury to use to help stabilize the financial services industry ... The three companies are seeking an additional $50 billion in federal loans

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTuXKLf4nW44

[Ghost Dog]

67. Most folks in this thread will have seen this other thread,

I guess: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4440041 (Naomi Klein: 'Is it Treasury that has been partially privatized by Wall Street?')

[ozymandius]

7. Asian Stocks Drop to a Two-Week Low; Inpex, Fortescue Decline

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell to a two-week low after Inpex Corp. cut its profit forecast and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. said iron-ore shipments may drop, pointing to a worsening outlook for global economies.

Inpex, Japan's largest energy explorer, retreated 5.4 percent as oil traded near a 20-month low. Fortescue, Australia's third-largest iron-ore producer, plunged 11 percent. Hana Financial Group Inc. tumbled 11 percent in Seoul after Fitch Ratings cut the outlook on South Korean banks' and securities companies' foreign currency debt ratings.

....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 1.4 percent to 85.87 as of 7:30 p.m. in Tokyo, its lowest close since Oct. 29 and extending yesterday's 3.6 percent slump. More than two shares dropped for each that advanced, while nine of the 10 industry groups dropped.

....

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.3 percent to 8695.51. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index pared declines to 0.7 percent after Hutchison Telecommunications International Ltd. said it will pay a HK$33.7 billion ($4.35 billion) special dividend.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aGL9deeV.N5s&refer=asia

[ozymandius]

8. U.S. Slump May Be Longest in Decades as Growth Fell Off `Cliff'

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. downturn will be the longest in three decades, and the drought in consumer spending may be the worst ever, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The implosion of credit markets last month will cause the economy to shrink at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and decline at a 1.5 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, according to the median estimate of 59 economists surveyed Nov. 3 to Nov. 11. Following last quarter's 0.3 percent drop, the slump would be the longest since 1974-75.

...

Declines in household spending will extend into next year as the worst financial crisis in seven decades forces employers to keep cutting payrolls on top of the 1.2 million jobs already lost this year. President-elect Barack Obama has said the U.S. needs a second economic stimulus package ``sooner rather than later.''

...

Falling demand will cause an even bigger increase in unemployment than projected last month. Economists surveyed forecast the jobless rate will rise to 7 percent in the first quarter of 2009, up from last month's forecast of 6.6 percent. The rate will climb to 7.7 percent by the end of 2009, the highest level since 1992, the survey showed.

The jobless rate rose to 6.5 percent in October, the highest since 1994, the government said last week. Employers cut 240,000 jobs last month and the total number of unemployed Americans jumped to 10.1 million, the highest level in a quarter century.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCIytV1_Ii7M&refer=us

[ozymandius]

18. Retail Tsunami Hits Gift Cards And No. 2 Mall Operator

Reuters is reporting Weaker gift card demand to hit post-holiday sales.

The once-hot holiday gift card may be losing some of its luster, dealing a setback to struggling U.S. retailers who count on the cards to drive consumers into stores for a post-Christmas shopping spree. As shoppers have witnessed a slew of retail bankruptcies this year, they are showing some reluctance toward buying the cards as gifts for friends and family.

And with retailers already rolling out tremendous discounts to entice consumers to spend their limited dollars, shoppers may find they can buy presents this holiday for less than what they were planning to spend on a gift card.

...

This year, consumers have watched as a slew of retailers, including Sharper Image, Linens 'n Things, and Mervyn's, have filed for bankruptcy protection, placing millions of dollars of unused gift cards into question.

.....

Weak retail sales and a credit market freeze is hurting mall operators. General Growth Properties, the No. 2 mall operator warns of bankruptcy.

General Growth Properties Inc., the No. 2 mall operator in the United States, has warned that an ongoing slump in retail sales, combined with the credit market lockdown, has pushed the company to the brink of bankruptcy.

Chicago-based General Growth Properties said in an SEC filing late Monday that it has $900 million of property secured debt and $58 million of corporate debt coming up for renewal by Dec. 1. It also faces another $3.07 billion in debt that matures in 2009.

more...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/retail-tsunami-hits-gift-cards-and-no-2.html

[Tansy_Gold]

29. Too much debt?

"They managed . . . . poorly."

Like the treasure seeker who reached for the golden goblet instead of the simple carpenter's wooden cup, they should dry up and blow away.

Just because these companies, whether they are hedge funds or investment (ha!) banks or property managers or whatthefuckever, have grown obese on debt is no reason for them to demand the taxpayers starve to feed the continuing gluttony.

YOU FUCKED UP, ASSHOLES. You're reaping what you yourselves sowed. You were greedy and stupid and didn't use the brains the good goddess gave you.

ESAD




Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

9. Fed Said to Seek Oversight of Credit-Default Swap Clearinghouse

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve is seeking to become the lead regulator for clearing trades in the $33 trillion credit-default swap market, according to people with knowledge of the proposal.

The Fed, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Treasury Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are discussing a memorandum of understanding that lays out oversight of clearinghouses that would become the central counterparty to credit-default swap trades, said the people who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

.....

The Fed has been pushing the industry to form a clearinghouse that would absorb losses should a market maker fail. Regulators stepped up their efforts after the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September and the near-collapse of American International Group Inc. The New York Fed has been meeting with groups including CME Group Inc., Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and NYSE Euronext to press them to accelerate their progress.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=us&sid=apgBhmu_U.Fo

[ozymandius]

11. Europe Stocks Decline; U.S. Index Futures Are Little Changed

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell for a second day as declining commodity prices pushed energy and mining companies lower. U.S. index futures were little changed, while Asian shares retreated.

BG Group Plc, the U.K. gas producer, lost 2.9 percent and StatoilHydro ASA slipped 4.4 percent, as oil slumped below $58 a barrel. BHP Billiton Ltd. slid 2.9 percent, and Rio Tinto Group fell 1.9 percent as copper dropped for a second day in London.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.4 percent to 211.28 at 10:05 a.m. in London and bringing its 2008 loss to 41 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.3 percent.

....

The Stoxx 600 is valued at 9 times reported earnings of the companies in the index, below the four-year average of 14 times profit. The gauge traded at 7.9 times earnings in Oct. 27, the lowest since at least January 2002. The S&P 500 trades at 19 times earnings, up from a low of 17 on Oct. 10. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries is valued at 12 times profit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=auj9tOGU_V3M&refer=europe

[ozymandius]

12. ING Posts First Loss, May Have Additional Writedowns (Update2)

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- ING Groep NV, the financial-services firm that got a 10 billion-euro ($12.6 billion) lifeline from the Netherlands last month, said writedowns amounted to 1.51 billion euros in the third quarter and may extend through year end.

The loss for the quarter ended Sept. 30, the first since the company was created in 1991, was 478 million euros, or 22 cents a share, it said today in a statement. That was less than the 500 million-euro loss it forecast last month and compared with net income of 2.31 billion euros, or 1.08 euros, in the year-earlier period. ING rose as much as 3.8 percent in Amsterdam trading.

ING wrote down the value of stocks, bonds, Alt-A and subprime mortgages and assets related to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michel Tilmant, who agreed last month to sell non-voting securities to the Dutch state, said asset prices will still be under pressure in the fourth quarter, and the weakening economy will hurt next year's results.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a1wgAUhIAk1s&refer=europe

[ozymandius]

13. Stocks set for another dismal start

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks looked set to decline for a third straight day Wednesday as investors were unable to overcome their concerns about the economy.

At 5:01 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average, Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were all lower.

....

Retailers: In focus on Wednesday are quarterly results from department store operator Macy's (M, Fortune 500). The company, due to report before the market open, is expected to post a loss.

Macy's is among a number of retailers reporting results this week. Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, is slated to report its results Thursday. JC Penney is on tap Friday.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/12/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008111205

[Roland99]

24. Everything's coming up roses now. Futures are up.

[Roland99]

34. 8:47am - oops...nope...the blooms died. Futures down.

DJIA INDEX 8,563.00 -74.00
S&P 500 884.60 -8.40
NASDAQ 100 1,207.50 -15.50

[ozymandius]

15. The Economic Situation: Some Random Snapshots

The latest employment release was stunning, insofar as the NFP employment figure was far below consensus <0>. Net job loss was 240K, rather than 200K; moreover, September job loss was revised upward by 125K. In addition to Jim's assessment, some reaction is summarized here.

-see jarring chart-

....

Note that Figure 1 highlights, by virtue of plotting the previous vintages of employment releases, the constant downward revision of payroll employment figures. While Dash of Insight's Jeff Miller has pointed that these revisions are small relative to the benchmark revisions will come our way, the latest revisions do seem to be getting bigger.

Justin Fox has correctly pointed out that quantitatively, net job loss in September and October is quite small, at 0.4%. Even with expected revisions, this percentage for September-October will not change substantially. Most Americans will remain employed throughout this downturn, and adjustment will occur at the margins. One of those margins is the extent to which employed Americans are working. Figure 2 depicts aggregate hours against nonfarm payroll employment, both normalized to peak values in 2007M12.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/11/the_economic_si.html

[fasttense]

20. If you had a 49% unemployment rate, you could still say

most Americans will remain employed.

"Most Americans will remain employed throughout this downturn, and adjustment will occur at the margins. One of those margins is the extent to which employed Americans are working."

So we all get to work part time and still not be counted in the unemployment numbers. Don't you just love spin?

[ozymandius]

16. Even Lawyers Have It Bad

Although this New York Times article gives a good overview of how the economic downturn is affecting legal practices, it does a bit of a disservice in implying that law is recession proof. Some types of law are highly cyclical: M&A, and to a lesser degree, securities law. While bankruptcies pick up in downtimes, they are generally not sufficient to absorb all the excess M&A/securities/general corporate lawyers at big firms that are underutilized. Litigation, as the article points out, tends to fall off in down times, since even if you think you have a good case, you have to have the stamina and firepower to go a few rounds to force a favorable settlement (95% of lawsuits settle).

From the New York Times:

In downturns of years past, law firms exploited corporate failures and bitter, protracted lawsuits to keep busy and keep billing. But in this still-unfolding crisis, the embittered and the bankrupt have been relatively slow to appear, at least in court.

Law firms in turn are feeling the strain. Thelen and Heller Ehrman, two firms whose deep San Francisco roots extend back decades, have collapsed outright, in part because of the business slowdown. Each firm left several hundred lawyers out in the cold. Many others, including Sonnenschein Nath & Rosenthal and Katten Muchin Rosenman, two Chicago firms ranked among the nation’s hundred most profitable by American Lawyer magazine, and the international giant Clifford Chance have jettisoned dozens of associates.

Still others, like Powell Goldstein, a firm based in Atlanta with more than 200 lawyers, are merging with larger rivals in deals that may be bids for stability. Over all, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the legal services industry lost more than 1,000 jobs in October

....

A wave of big company litigation — those suits that pit armies of associates against each other — has also not materialized. A recent survey by one big firm, Fulbright & Jaworski, found fewer large companies reporting new lawsuits against them this year. Although executives may desperately want to sue one another over recent losses, they may not know how big those losses are or want to know how big they are. In any event, cash is precious in this downturn, and litigation is both costly and risky....

The number of lawyers affected at big firms is tiny when measured against the thousands of jobs disappearing at brokerage firms and banks. But in the rarefied world of corporate law, layoffs are unusual. It is striking to have just 20 associates sent packing — as a spokesman confirmed had happened at Clifford Chance, which has 3,900 lawyers worldwide.

The framing is odd. Big corporate clients have become much tougher about costs on all fronts for years. Smaller clients are still appreciative of service and are more willing to pay, but often have less ability. But it is likely that the screws have been tightened even further. Going to fixed fees is penny wise, pound foolish. Unless the matter is very routine, it is hard to make a good estimate. It is almost certain to put the client and lawyer at odds: the client will try to squeeze more out of the lawyer, the lawyer will try to fob the work off on juniors and cut corners. There are better solutions to the same problem' more frequent billing, so the client can manage costs better; breaking the engagement down into sub-projects with go/no go decision points; carving out routine bits and having those parts done on a fixed-price basis; discussing in some depth in advance who will do what and what their billing rates are.

more...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/even-lawyers-have-it-bad.html

[boomerbust]

42. Bankruptcy Lawyers

Are working overtime.

[DemReadingDU]

21. Fitch slashes GMAC debt to CC

11/11/08
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday cut its ratings on GMAC LLC deeper into junk territory, and said it may cut its debt to default, citing the finance company's operating losses and risks to the value of its bonds.

Fitch cut GMAC's issuer default ratings four notches to 'CCC,' eight steps below investment grade, and downgraded the senior unsecured debt six notches to 'CC,' ten steps below investment grade and close to default.

Both ratings were cut from 'B-plus.' The action affects around $72 billion in debt.

GMAC, which last week said it lost $2.52 billion in the third quarter, is evaluating options including applying for status as a bank holding company, a potential debt exchange and seeking federal assistance to shore up its liquidity.

Cerberus Capital Management leads a group that owns 51 percent of GMAC. GM owns the other 49 percent.

If the company succeeds in becoming a bank holding company it would have more access to options under the government's Troubled Asset Repurchase Program (TARP), which may be positive for its ratings, though it would be unlikely to lead to an upgrade, Fitch said in a statement.

A debt exchange, meanwhile, could reduce GMAC's financial burden, but it would also constitute a default on the bonds, Fitch added.

more...
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/11/11/afx5678909.html

[DemReadingDU]

22. GM, Ford notes carry more risk

11/12/08
As General Motors Corp. stock crashes, retirees and others are wondering what could happen to another chunk of savings that once looked as good as cash.

Nearly $4 billion was tied up in GMAC Demand Notes as of Sept. 30. It's money to use for college tuition, mortgage payments or vacations.

As GMAC's picture becomes grimmer, it's money that's increasingly at risk.

The notes are not FDIC-insured. These are short-term, unsecured debt obligations of GMAC LLC. This means there's no property that backs up the debt. The risks are spelled out at www.gmacfs.com.

The notes are available to GM and GMAC retirees and employees, and others including GM dealers and stockholders. Checks can be written on the accounts for at least $250. The yield is 5.25% and can adjust weekly.

"You have all the downside risk with bankruptcy," said Greg A. Prost, chief investment officer for Ambassador Capital Management, a fixed-income investment-management firm in Detroit.

Prost said some relatives who work at GM asked him several weeks ago what to do with their notes.

"I told family members to get out," Prost said. "You have enough exposure by working at the company in the first place."

Prost said that while 5.25% seems high compared with a savings account, it's not high enough given the risk.


A Ford caution issued
"This is not necessarily a safe cash reserve account that we thought it was three or four years ago," said David Kudla, CEO of Mainstay Capital Management in Grand Blanc.

Kudla said Ford retirees and employees also should be cautious about Ford Interest Advantage accounts, which are not insured.

more...
http://www.freep.com/article/20081112/COL07/811120396

[UpInArms]

23. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.027 Change -0.214 (-0.28%)

Euro, British Pound, and US Dollar Could Break Trading Ranges on These 5 Events

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/5_Key_Events_for_the_1226324919568.html

Given the mounting fears of a global recession, indicators of economic growth have been drawing quite a bit of attention lately. As a result, the release of Euro-zone Q3 GDP and US retail sales along with speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke and ECB President Trichet are sure to make the headlines and spur volatility in the forex markets this week.

• German ZEW Survey (NOV) – November 11
The German ZEW survey of economic sentiment, a gauge of investor confidence, is forecasted to hold steady at -63.0 for the month of November. However, given the sharp economic slowdown and persistent financial market instability that led the European Central Bank to cut rates by 50 basis points to 3.25 percent on November 6, there is potential for this index to fall lower and perhaps even reach a new low, as the current record low of -63.9 was set just this past July (records go back to 1991). This 5:00 ET release tends to be a very short-term market mover for the euro, with disappointing results likely to lead the currency lower upon release while a surprisingly strong number could provide it with a brief boost.

• UK Jobless Claims (OCT), Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report – November 12
Jobless claims in the UK are anticipated to rise for the ninth consecutive month in October, adding to evidence that the combination of a slowing global economy, sharp declines in domestic consumption, and the continuous collapse of the UK housing sector are bound to make the UK economic contraction extend for a lengthy amount of time. Indeed, the jobless claims change is anticipated to rise by 40K, the largest single-month gain since 1992, and while this could impact the British pound upon release at 4:30 ET, the announcement of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report may be more important. Given the BOE’s latest policy statement following their aggressive 150 basis point rate cut, it appears that the Monetary Policy Committee is now more concerned about the potential for deflation, and if the Inflation Report confirms this outlook, the news could trigger a large British pound sell-off.

• Euro-zone GDP (3Q A), CPI (OCT) – November 14
Over the past year, the release of Euro-zone CPI drew significant attention and sparked major volatility for the euro. However, indicators of growth have become more important as of late, as the European Central Bank has shifted its focus away from inflation and on to the global, and regional, economic slowdown. As a result, when both Euro-zone Q3 GDP and Euro-zone CPI for the month of October hit the wires at 5:00 ET, the former may get a bit more attention. Why? This will be the advanced reading of Q3 GDP and is forecasted to slump 0.2 percent from the previous quarter and as the second consecutive period of contraction, would fit the popular definition of recession (being two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Such data would only raise the odds that the European Central Bank will move to cut rates again at their next meeting on December 4, and if CPI drops in line with or more than forecasts to 3.2 percent from 3.6 percent, the news will only add insult to injury and could trigger sharp losses for the euro.

• US Advance Retail Sales (OCT) – November 14
The 8:30 ET release of Advance Retail Sales is expected to show that the index fell for the fourth month in a row in October, with consensus forecasts by Bloomberg News calling for a 2.0 percent decline. According to the latest report from the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), sales actually contracted 0.9 percent in October from a year earlier, marking the first negative result since March 2008 and the worst reading since April 2007. Looking at a breakdown of the report, apparel and department store sales both fell roughly 11 percent from a year earlier while the luxury component tumbled 19.2 percent. Even discount and wholesale clubs sales slowed to a significantly weaker pace, suggesting that consumers are cutting back severely on spending across the board. Clearly, there’s quite a bit of downside risk for this particular Advance Retail Sales release, with disappointing readings likely to lead the US dollar lower for at least a brief time, though if risk trends remain in play, flight-to-safety could actually lead the “safe haven” currency higher.

...more...

BoE Governor Mervyn King Sparks Speculation for Currency Intervention as Pound Drops to Record Lows, Highlights Deflationary Risks

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/BoE_Governor_Mervyn_King_Sparks_1226489654582.html

BoE Governor King said if Sterling falls far enough, it would be a concern, but noted that he is not surprised of the recent depreciation. Sterling has depreciated sharply on a deteriorating growth outlook for the U.K. and hit a six year low against the dollar today and a record low against the euro. At the press conference following today's Inflation report release, Governor King also stressed that he does not want to see Sterling fall particularly sharply and in today's Report, the BoE also noted that the Sterling fall is likely to have weaker pass-through effect to retail prices than in the past, hence exercising less upward inflationary pressure.
In addition, he said the bank is prepared to go to whatever rate necessary to get CPI to target and acknowledged that there is a risk for deflation. Speaking at the press conference following the release of the central bank's November Inflation Report, King also noted that it is "very likely" that RPI inflation will turn negative next year, this "reflects more the fact that we cut interest rates this year, That alone will push RPI into negative territory". King said that the Bank is prepared to cut rates further, if needed, and added that it would be perfectly sensible to see some fiscal stimulus at this point. (The Treasury is due to release its pre-budget report this month.) Overall, today's Inflation Report supports the outlook for further rate cuts ahead.

Meanwhile, Pound-Dollar (GBPUSD) traded at a new trend low of 1.5204. Sterling losses continued to outpace the Euro amid expectations of further aggressive policy action from the BoE, which saw EUR-GBP rifle through 0.8200 and extend to 0.8237 record highs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. FBR sees Fannie Mae losing $20-$40 billion in next 4 quarters

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AB39H20081112?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

(Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.P: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), once a mortgage giant, could post losses totaling $20 billion to $40 billion in the next four quarters, as elevated credit costs continue to hurt the company's capital position, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets said.

Rising credit costs and the amount of losses will determine how much capital the U.S. Treasury would have to inject into Fannie Mae, analyst Paul Miller said in a note to clients.

Fannie Mae said on Monday it is losing money so fast it may have to tap government cash to avoid shutting down after the largest source of funding for U.S. homes posted a record $29 billion quarterly loss.

Credit expenses for Fannie Mae also soared to $9.2 billion in the quarter due to deteriorating mortgage credit conditions and as home prices declined. Further losses this quarter may wipe out shareholder equity, which fell to $9.3 billion in the third quarter from $44 billion at the end of 2007.

However, significant loan modification initiatives by the company should partially reduce losses in the longer term, but the success of the modification efforts remain to be seen, analyst Miller said.

He maintained his "underperform" rating and price target of 50 cents on the company's stock.

"We believe there is little value left for the common shareholders given the conservatorship status and the significant dilution of common shareholders to a 20.1 percent ownership that came with the government intervention," Miller said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. AmEx seeks $3.5 billion from government: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081112/bs_nm/us_americanexpress

(Reuters) – American Express Co (AXP.N), the No. 4 U.S. credit card issuer, is seeking about $3.5 billion in tax-payer funded capital from the U.S. government, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the situation.

It was not clear if the application under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) came before or after the company got Federal Reserve approval to become a bank-holding company.

American Express has not announced the application, and it is not known how it would use government money, the paper said.

The company won the approval of the Federal Reserve Board to become a bank holding company on Monday.

[UpInArms]

27. Report: Singapore won't bail out Sands project

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081112/ap_on_bi_ge/as_singapore_sands

SINGAPORE – Singapore won't bail out troubled casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. if it runs out of money before finishing a $2.7 billion casino-resort in the city-state, Trade Minister S. Iswaran said, a state TV channel reported.

Iswaran didn't rule out the participation of government-owned companies in the project, known as Marina Bay Sands, should Sands run out of funding, Channel NewsAsia said Wednesday. Sands has not asked the government for money, Iswaran said.

Sands plans to suspend several casino projects in Macau and Las Vegas after saying last week it was in danger of breaching lending conditions and defaulting on $5.2 billion of debt.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Ski resort for super rich files for bankruptcy

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AA65820081111

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Exclusive ski and golf community Yellowstone Club, in Montana, has filed for bankruptcy protection, a sign that the financial crisis roiling the real estate and leisure industries is not limited to the low end of the market.

The club, in the pristine mountain area around Big Sky, Montana, not far from Yellowstone National Park, is part resort and part residential community for the super-rich.

It advertises housing lots on the sides of its ski slopes and golf course at prices ranging from $2 million to more than $6 million.

In a filing made in federal bankruptcy court in Montana on Monday, Yellowstone Mountain Club LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, listing assets and liabilities in the range of $100 million to $500 million.

...more...

just had to go and look at the political donations of the owners:

http://newsmeat.com/billionaire_political_donations/Tim_Blixseth.php

Hall of Fame ► Billionaires
Tim Blixseth
timber and real estate mogul

NEWSMEAT Power Rank: 194

Election Picks: 17 wins, 12 losses $181,055* Republican
$23,000 Democrat
$10,475 special interest
total: $214,530

[Tansy_Gold]

36. Memo to Tim:

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

and oh yeah,


:nopity:


your friend,

Tansy Gold

PS: :rofl:

[Hugin]

54. I posted my thoughts on this sort of thing a few months ago.

This is one of the reasons a middle-class with some sort of disposable discretionary income should be
desirable, even to the Predatory 1%-ers.

Reason #13904343.2 of why it's good to have the little people.

They pay the bread-and-butter to keep all of the recreational areas open. So, that if -YOU- have some interests
other than counting money, it's available when you'd like to do it... Remember, it's a hell of a lot cheaper than
building and maintaining a private ski resort that you may use once a year. All greed and no sharing makes for a
dull life... Unless your name is Scrooge.

For a reference on this... See Tansy_Gold's "Logical Flaws in Atlas Shrugged Vol. XXVI".

Oh, and Tim... :p :rofl:

[Festivito]

31. Debt: 11/07/2008 10,622,166,941,631.60 (No report because of Veteran's Day. Same Friday report,)

(Good Wednesday all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,869,286,267.95 + 4,263,297,655,363.73
DOWN 129,624,570.02 + DOWN 2,433,661,596.55
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 18,087,034,031.33.
The average for the last 30 days would be 13,263,824,956.31.
The average for the last 31 days would be 12,835,959,635.14.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 27 reports in 38 days of FY2009 averaging 22.13B$ per report, 15.72B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 74 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/07/2008 10,622,166,941,631.60 GWB (UP 4,893,971,145,450.03 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 597,442,044,719.20 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $957,535,138,372.53 in last 50 days.
That's 958B$ in 50 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 50 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 50 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3595121&mesg_id=3595345

[Festivito]

103. Debt: 11/10/2008 10,622,223,198,682.50 (UP 56,257,050.90) (No borrow Monday.)

(The pattern becomes little change for days followed by a day of heavy borrowing, say each week. On Mondays there is little to no borrowing.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,690,409,750.62 + 4,263,532,788,931.92
DOWN 178,876,517.33 + UP 235,133,568.19
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 15,611,512,684.59.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,928,058,879.21.
The average for the last 31 days would be 10,575,540,850.85.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 28 reports in 41 days of FY2009 averaging 21.34B$ per report, 14.57B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 71 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/10/2008 10,622,223,198,682.50 GWB (UP 4,894,027,402,500.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 597,498,301,770.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT:
10/21/2008 +000,055,042,092.95 ------------*******
10/22/2008 +035,922,282,339.83 ------------**********
10/23/2008 +024,603,393,878.21 ------------**********
10/24/2008 -000,913,156,317.59 -----------
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 ----------- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 -----------
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 ----------- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 -----------
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 -----------
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 ----------- Mon

169,042,985,745.51 Total of 15 reports above.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $957,591,395,423.43 in last 53 days.
That's 958B$ in 53 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 53 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 53 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3597048&mesg_id=3597153

[UpInArms]

32. Best Buy slashes profit outlook

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AB3TU20081112

(Reuters) - Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Wednesday it sees softer consumer spending, and lowered its fiscal 2009 EPS guidance. Highlights:

* Says total comparable store sales declined by approximately 7.6 percent for fiscal October

* CEO says "simply can't adjust fast enough to maintain our earnings momentum for this year"

* Best buy co sees comparable store sales for four months remaining in fiscal 2009 to decline by 5 percent to 15 percent

* Best buy co sees annual comparable store sales decline of 1 percent to 8 percent

* Sees stronger U.S. dollar to result in lower revenue and profits from its international segment than previously expected

...more...

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

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[Hugin]

55. Will you accept some GM stock Mr. Grovelbot?

I've got a couple of reams here.

[ozymandius]

73. I found some GM stock in the paper recycling bin at school today.

So these just gotta be worth something in bulk.

[AnneD]

37. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: He was 2 years old and all boy. Big for his age he delighted everyone with his mischievous antics. He would break open his food containers and spread his food everywhere and play with it as young ones tend to do. He loved his ball, playing with it for hours. He would run outside ringing the wind chimes, try to stand on his head, making wonderful trumpet noises, and tease his loving Mother and doting Auntie by running under foot. He was intelligent and wanted to please. He was a little sunbeam to everyone that ever met him and he was adored by all that saw him.

But he stopped eating the other day, and wouldn't play. The Doctors noticed he was developing some facial swelling. He was seriously ill. He was immediately given antibiotics and antivirals. No expense was spared. He woke up from his sleep Sunday looking chipper, stood up, yawned, then laid down and died. His Mother and Auntie remained beside his body for hours morning his passing.

Mac (because he was as big as a Mack truck) was the largest elephant ever born in captivity. And he was a handful. Everyone that came to the Houston Zoo HAD to visit Mac. He was a mischievous prankster that stole everyones hearts. There were few dry eyes at the press conference announcing his death. The kids talked about it all day at school-the news was devastating to them. And just as his Mother and Auntie mourned him, there was a memorial service for humans too.

Houston is a little bit sadder place this week.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears

edited for video

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6104542.html

[UpInArms]

39. what a sad tale, AnneD

I believe the world is a sadder place for the loss, not just Houston

:(

(edited cuz I kant tipe)

[ozymandius]

74. I am so sorry.

How bizarre and horrible. I'm sure your kids at school have shared heart-heavy stories about Mac, Anne.

[AnneD]

105. The little kids really identified with him.....

and with Bella, his deceased sister. Ahhhh but Mac was really special. They had great hope for him in a breeding program: smart, strong, personable, and easy to work with.

We always have had good natured elephants at the Zoo. One of the favs I grew up loving was a sweet old elephant that in her youth had been a circus elephant. On more than one occasion, she would grab an unsuspecting child's balloon and dance to the music playing from a boom box, waving the balloon about and preforming an old routine. We always took a radio with us, just for her. She died of peaceful old age and was buried in an undisclosed area in the park.

[UpInArms]

38. Billion-dollar hedge fund managers face hearing- FT

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSBNG16835220081112

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers who earned more than $1 billion last year, including George Soros and Philip Falcone, are being summoned to Capitol Hill on Thursday to testify under oath about potential risks their firms pose to the broader economy, the Financial Times said.

The hearing before the House oversight committee will be headed by Democrat Henry Waxman, the paper said.

Soros and Falcone will appear alongside John Paulson of Paulson & Co, James Simons of Renaissance Technologies Corp and Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group, the paper said.

The five hedge fund managers were chosen because they were the top earners, according to a rough calculation from Alpha magazine, the FT said, citing people familiar with the matter.

The fund managers could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters.

Hedge fund executives expect the hearing will focus on questions including whether hedge funds have become so large that they threaten the stability of the financial system, either because of the impact of their trading or because of the impact of the failure of even one big hedge fund, the FT said.

A subsidiary question in this regard is whether hedge fund compensation practices encourage reckless risk taking, according to the paper.

...more...

[Roland99]

40. 9:32am - uhhh....YIKES!!

DJIA 8,533.31 -160.65 -1.85%
Nasdaq 1,554.94 -25.96 -1.64%
S&P 500 883.17 -15.78 -1.76%
Global Dow 1,462.91 -29.81 -2.00%
Dow Util 358.09 -5.90 -1.62%
NYSE 5,561.62 -72.75 -1.29%
AMEX 1,368.52 -1.29 -0.09%
Russell 2000 479.54 -2.75 -0.57%
Semcond 729.00 -3.80 -0.52%
30-Year Bond 4.16% -0.05 -1.14%
10-Year Bond 3.68% -0.07 -1.97%

[UpInArms]

43. blather

09:35 am : Stocks tumble at the open, with disappointing guidance from a major retailer weighing on sentiment.

Best Buy (BBY 21.37, -2.51) said that the changes in consumer behavior since mid-September have created the most difficult climate the retailer has ever seen. As a result, the company slashed its fiscal year 2009 (ends in February) earnings per share guidance to between $2.30 and $2.90 from its previous forecast of $3.25 to $3.40. This falls well below the consensus estimate of $3.02 per share. Best Buy earned $3.18 per share last year.

Retailers are down 3.9% this session.

Separately, Treasury Secretary Paulson will provide more information on the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program at 10:30 AM ET.DJ30 -158.90 NASDAQ -21.95 SP500 -15.83

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.30

[Roland99]

44. 10:47am - Getting worser...

DJIA 8,416.70 -277.26 -3.19%
Nasdaq 1,539.47 -41.43 -2.62%
S&P 500 870.17 -28.78 -3.20%
Global Dow 1,442.61 -50.11 -3.36%
Dow Util 352.74 -11.25 -3.09%
NYSE 5,430.51 -203.86 -3.62%
AMEX 1,323.68 -46.13 -3.37%
Russell 2000 468.00 -14.29 -2.96%
Semcond 727.50 -5.30 -0.72%
30-Year Bond 4.15% -0.05 -1.28%
10-Year Bond 3.68% -0.08 -2.08%

[UpInArms]

41. Russian equities tumble again, trading suspended

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Russian-equities-tumble-again-trading/story.aspx?guid=%7B4B79ECA5%2DA0D5%2D49AD%2DB69C%2D26CE68F75C25%7D&dist=hplatest

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russia's dollar-denominated RTS stock index tumbled 12.5% in intraday trading Wednesday, forcing the RTS exchange to suspend trading first for an hour at 1:05 p.m. Moscow time and then extend the trading suspension for an unspecified period of time, according to the Web site of the exchange. Moscow's other stock exchange, the Micex, stayed closed Wednesday after trading was halted in the previous session because of a steep slide in share prices.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

45. The famed Paulson bump...

[UpInArms]

46. Paulson Spew:

01. Paulson: Rescue plan targeted at financial sector, not autos
11:14 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

02. Paulson: Believes $700 bln will be total rescue cost
11:10 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

03. Paulson: 'Long-term viability' key to any aid to auto firms
11:07 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

04. Auto industry is critical industry in this country: Paulson
11:06 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

[DemReadingDU]

56. A reporter asks Paulson if he misled Congress

10 minute video, the reporter asks his question about halfway thru

11/12/08 Paulson Q&A 2
Secretary Treasury Henry Paulson answers questions on his update to the government rescue plan.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=926366633&play=1


add another video

Rick Santelli holds up 2 papers - Bait and Switch to describe Paulson's plan now.
6 minute video, Santelli is on after 1 minute
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=926378752&play=1

[DemReadingDU]

100. From the transcript

11/12/08 CQ Transcript: Treasury Secretary Paulson Holds News Conference on the Financial Crisis
.
.
QUESTION: On that -- on that question, yesterday all the action taken by the GSEs and others, did you force them to do that? Is that enough? Have you abandoned homeowners because you’re no longer going to use TARP to help the homeowners?

And on a broader question, you’re using TARP now completely differently than you told Congress you were going to use it. Did you mislead Congress? What’s happened?


PAULSON: Well, let me get to the -- what we -- what we said to Congress was we needed a financial rescue package because the credit markets were stopped up.

PAULSON: And we were focused on the problem. And the -- and when we went to Congress, the illiquid assets looked like the way to go. As the situation worsened, the facts changed. The thing I’m grateful for is we were prescient enough and Congress was, that we got a wide array of authorities and tools under this legislation.

And I will never apologize for -- for changing an approach or a strategy when the facts change. I think the apologies should come the other way if -- if someone doesn’t change when the facts change.

So we -- I think we moved quickly; we moved powerfully to address the situation, and as it -- as it exists now.

But therein lies your -- you know, your second question, because this was never -- we never had the discussion in the context of not buying the illiquid assets. And so -- but, you know, foreclosure prevention is something I’m going to keep working on right up until I leave.

And in terms of what was done yesterday, with the GSEs and with Hope Now and others, we’ve been -- ordering is too strong, but we’ve been encouraging. And they’ve been looking, also for ways to be helpful.

But I think government can play a role in bringing people together. And, of course, given the conservator status ship (ph) of GSEs, it’s easier to do that now.

more...
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002985422

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

68. Ye Olde 8 minute Flip.

[UpInArms]

47. Fed's Kohn does a Con Job - spew

05. Kohn confident financial system will be restored
11:01 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

06. Still unclear how Fed should approach bubbles: Kohn
11:01 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

07. Winding down liquidity steps will be a challenge: Kohn
11:01 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

08. Kohn: Additional steps may be needed to re-open credit flows
11:01 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

09. Fed's Kohn: Financial markets remain impaired
11:01 AM ET, Nov 12, 2008

[Tansy_Gold]

50. "Financial markets remain impaired."

No, what's impaired is your thought process, sir. You simply don't get it. You are so fucking far out of touch with REALITY that you no longer even have thought processes. Your brain has been reduced to an autonomic functionary. You have reflexes but no reactions. You are redundant, sir. Useless. A waste of air and water. A blight. A cancer.

You should leave. You should exit yourself from the economic stage. I'm quite sure you have salted away many millions, perhaps billions, of the dollars someone one else has earned. You have earned nothing but scorn, and that doesn't buy even a cup of rancid coffee these days.

Begone, fool. Or at least shut the fuck up.




Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

90. Theme for the Day--Dedicated to Tansy Gold!

The Party's Over, it's time to call it a day.
They've burst your pretty balloon and taken the moon away.

It's time to wind up the masquerade.
Just make your mind up the piper must be paid.

The Party's Over.The candles ficker and dim.
You danced and dreamed through the night,
it seemed to be right just being with him.

Now you must wake up, all dreams must end.
Take off your make up, The Party's Over.
It's all over, my friend.


http://www.allmusicals.com/lyrics/bellsareringing/thepartysover.htm

[UpInArms]

48. Credit losses may surpass 10 pct of U.S. GDP

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1254981520081112

NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Credit losses from the financial crisis may exceed even dire estimates of $1.4 trillion, or more than 10 percent of U.S. economic output, according to the chief strategist of research firm CreditSights.

Financial and non-financial loss estimates by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank may be too conservative as the economy weakens and companies and consumers focus on repaying debt, Louise Purtle said on Wednesday.

"What does life after leverage look like?" asked Purtle, during a credit conference in New York. "We're not prepared for it. The great danger looking into 2009 is being too optimistic."

Most indicators suggest no easy fix, she said. U.S. existing home sales indicate there are about 1 million extra homes that can't be sold. Defaults and delinquencies for home loans continue to climb, adding to the 6.9 million foreclosures over the past three years.

U.S. consumer confidence is at its worst levels, exceeding pessimism seen during the 1970s, she said.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

52. "A million extra homes"

Okay, let's see if I got this right.

We have people in homes now that they can't afford because either their ARMs are resetting to a level they can't afford (easily fixed: reset the ARMs to the affordable rate and leave 'em the fuck alone) or they've lost income, probably through the loss of a job.

Solution: Create jobs.

We have an additional 1,000,000 homes that can't be sold because people don't have the money to buy them. I'll bet a few of those people COULD buy homes if they had some income from a job.

Solution: Create jobs.

If the new administration has any hope of fixing the economic quagmire, they need to start looking at creating jobs. Real jobs. Jobs that pay a living wage and that produce the goods and services that real people NEED, not the cheap plastic crap "luxuries" that have been crammed down our throats for 40 years.

But one person who ain't holdin' her breath is




Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

71. Hubby and I are down to our last loans.....

and can pay 1K a month toward them. We have saved up 2K for a newer car and have 1K in an emergency fund. We are 1+ year away from being debt free.

We could afford 1K-1.5K payment and want a modest 80-100K (more toward the 80). I haven't seen any realistically priced decent homes yet. I can't buy 250-300K and flat out refuse to. No one wants our business. We ill just keep paying off our debts and saving money.

[Tansy_Gold]

82. That's all because you have jobs.

I rest my case. ;-)

[AnneD]

106. Of course......

I have never said otherwise, but despite our have stable dependable jobs we still can't get a house with in our means. Oh, but really, the 2 of us are eligible for defined benefit compensation if laid off we are that close to retiring. So even now-we are still a good investment

[Demeter]

92. It's Not Really a Buyers Market Yet

The Super Bears want housing prices to come down to 3 times average annual income--the chances are good that the market will overshoot this goal on the way down. If you are comfortable where you are, you can survey what's out there and wait....

[AnneD]

107. That's exactly what we are doing......

Seeing hoe much cash we can save while we wait.

[TrogL]

49. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-10-01 Wednesday, October 1 0.942774 USD
2008-10-02 Thursday, October 2 0.928591 USD
2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD
2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD
2008-10-16 Thursday, October 16 0.83661 USD
2008-10-17 Friday, October 17 0.846024 USD
2008-10-20 Monday, October 20 0.834934 USD
2008-10-21 Tuesday, October 21 0.819135 USD
2008-10-22 Wednesday, October 22 0.800256 USD
2008-10-23 Thursday, October 23 0.795355 USD
2008-10-24 Friday, October 24 0.785238 USD
2008-10-27 Monday, October 27 0.773096 USD
2008-10-28 Tuesday, October 28 0.772678 USD
2008-10-29 Wednesday, October 29 0.812876 USD
2008-10-30 Thursday, October 30 0.817728 USD
2008-10-31 Friday, October 31 0.817728 USD
2008-11-03 Monday, November 3 0.842744 USD
2008-11-04 Tuesday, November 4 0.869414 USD
2008-11-05 Wednesday, November 5 0.862813 USD
2008-11-06 Thursday, November 6 0.84631 USD
2008-11-07 Friday, November 7 0.845309 USD
2008-11-10 Monday, November 10 0.83696 USD
2008-11-11 Tuesday, November 11 0.83696 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8243 0.8243 0.8133 0.8133 -0.0181 -2.18% 11:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8215 0.8215 0.8080 0.8080 -0.0209 -2.52% 11:09 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8453 0.8482 0.8453 0.8289 -0.0073 -0.88% set 13:08 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8293 -0.0073 -0.88% set 13:08 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8302 -0.0082 -0.99% set 13:08 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.8299 -0.0082 -0.99% set 13:08 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8311 -0.0082 -0.99% set 13:08 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7856 0.7856 0.7856 0.7856 -0.0124 -1.58%  
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.5227 1.5242 1.4900 1.4908 -0.0402 -2.62%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.8230 0.8230 0.8230 0.8230 +0.0091 +1.12%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 123.300 123.300 118.200 118.200 -4.015 -3.27%      
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.24900 1.25180 1.24540 1.25115 +0.00035 +0.03%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 87.24. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.82.

Analysis

The graphs are showing the loonie losing 4 cents in the last 24 hours. :wtf:

Actually, it looks like the greenback's taken off like a rocket leaving everything else behind. Obama effect? Inverse piehole effect?

[Pale Blue Dot]

51. Today feels like the kind of day in which we'll see a last-minute sell-off.

I can't explain it, but it just seems like we may see a 200-300 point drop during the last 15 minutes. And as always, my prediction is worth what you paid for it.

[DemReadingDU]

53. market already down 300

maybe down another 200 in the last 15 minutes?

[Robbien]

57. SEC officials cleared over hedge fund investigation (SEC cleared SEC)

Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have been cleared of any wrongdoing relating to the investigation of insider trading allegations at a New York hedge fund, according to reports.

SEC administrative law judge Brenda P Murray exonerated SEC director of enforcement Linda Thomsen, assistant director of enforcement Mark Kreitman and SEC attorney Gary Aguirre over their handling of the probe into Pequot Capital Management, HedgeCo stated.

The ruling goes against earlier findings from the regulator's inspector general, H David Kotz, that the conduct of the investigation raised "serious questions about the impartiality and fairness".

. . .

SEC administrative law judge Ms Murray also cleared the SEC over a separate investigation into Bear Stearns, which collapsed earlier this year.

http://www.bobsguide.com/guide/news/2008/Nov/12/SEC_officials_cleared_over_hedge_fund_investigation.html

Of course no one has been prosecuted for corruption in either case.

[UpInArms]

58. how convenient!

foxes are free to continue to kill chickens

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

59. Unemployment expected to hit 9%, Wachovia economists say

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD7A29379%2DB5AC%2D41F3%2D8977%2D842BCB3B3B6A%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession is likely to be as long and severe as the downturns in 1973-75 and 1981-82, economists at Wachovia said Wednesday. Gross domestic product will likely fall for four consecutive quarters, according to the forecast released by chief economist John Silvia. Domestic demand is expected to fall for five straight quarters, which would be the longest decline since the government started keeping track in 1947. The unemployment rate is expected to peak in late 2010 at 9%, which would be the highest since 1983. In October, the unemployment rate was 6.5%.

and since these eCONomists have been so right (NOT!) you can bet the real number will be twice as bad and three times as long

:banghead:

[uppityperson]

60. thanks for continuing to do this. 1 of hte first things I check on DU

I look at the DOW from another site, but I really appreciate your input as to the whys of what is going on.

[specimenfred1984]

62. I second that, there is a wealth of information posted here

for those many DUers who care to actually learn from it.

[TalkingDog]

61. Hey Y'all! (as we say down south)

I miss dropping in and checking out all the whiplash that must be going on.

I hope the rollercoaster ride hasn't been too tough on everybody.

I'll peek in when I can. Take care.

TD

[Ghost Dog]

64. Hey

:hi:

'Reining in' the habit myself (and busy locally). :)

[DemReadingDU]

65. G20 financial summit may become a fittingly inept end to Bush administration

11/11/08
The chances of meeting being anything other than a high-profile talking shop look increasingly slim
By James Quinn

When George W. Bush toasts his assembled dinner guests in the State Dining Room at the White House on Friday evening, the poignancy of the moment is unlikely to be lost on him.

Flanked by premiers from across the developed and developing world, the outgoing US President will be only too aware that the discussions that follow, both at dinner and the next day's Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy, will not only be his last as the leader of the free world but are equally unlikely to result in any significant changes to the existing world order.

Billed by protagonists as a chance to alter the global financial system once and for all in the wake of the continuing credit crisis, this weekend's meeting of the G20 nations – including countries as far flung as Argentina and Australia – is likely to lead to a final black mark for a presidency already shrouded in international ineptitude.

The Bush administration's attitude to the gathering up to now has been telling, with France's Nicolas Sarkozy forcing the President's hand into even hosting the event in the first place.

Since then, Bush has kept largely mum on the event, allowing a vacuum to form which some commentators predict could be filled by a backlash from developing countries – such as Russia and Brazil – against the US, blaming it for triggering the financial crisis in the first place.

As with any international summit, such a vacuum will be quickly filled, with the aim of each attending country to get their point across as early and as loudly as possible.

more...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3418974/G20-financial-summit-may-become-a-fittingly-inept-end-to-Bush-administration.html

[DemReadingDU]

66. Robert Prechter: Why Your FDIC-Backed Bank Could Fail

This informative article has been excerpted from Bob Prechter's New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash. Unlike recent news articles that are responding to the banking crisis, it was published in 2002 before anyone was even talking about bank safety. However, you may find the information even more valuable today than ever before.

11/11/08 Robert Prechter: Why Your FDIC-Backed Bank Could Fail

Between 1929 and 1933, 9000 banks in the United States closed their doors. President Roosevelt shut down all banks for a short time after his inauguration. In December 2001, the government of Argentina froze virtually all bank deposits, barring customers from withdrawing the money they thought they had. Sometimes such restrictions happen naturally, when banks fail; sometimes they are imposed. Sometimes the restrictions are temporary; sometimes they remain for a long time.

Why do banks fail? For nearly 200 years, the courts have sanctioned an interpretation of the term "deposits" to mean not funds that you deliver for safekeeping but a loan to your bank. Your bank balance, then, is an IOU from the bank to you, even though there is no loan contract and no required interest payment. Thus, legally speaking, you have a claim on your money deposited in a bank, but practically speaking, you have a claim only on the loans that the bank makes with your money.

If a large portion of those loans is tied up or becomes worthless, your money claim is compromised. A bank failure simply means that the bank has reneged on its promise to pay you back. The bottom line is that your money is only as safe as the bank's loans. In boom times, banks become imprudent and lend to almost anyone. In busts, they can't get much of that money back due to widespread defaults. If the bank's portfolio collapses in value, say, like those of the Savings & Loan institutions in the U.S. in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the bank is broke, and its depositors' savings are gone.

more...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11805.htm

[Demeter]

94. I Really Didn't Want to Hear This

Not that I have any money in the bank, anyway.....

[amandabeech]

104. The FDIC will get loans from the U.S. gov as a whole.

It will not go down, but will have a huge bill to be paid off when the economy stabilizes.

Of course, the U.S. gov will borrow the money that it lends to the FDIC, which will eventually mean that the interest rate that it will have to pay will go up and the dollar will lose some of its new-found luster.

Beware of the Elliot Wave types. They have their angle, but can be woefully uninformed about how things actually work. This is a good example of the worst of their work.

[specimenfred1984]

70. My numbers are showing this is really oversold, ahhhh numbers...

My magical numbers which rule everything, they must be worshiped as much as disaster capitalism is, as profit itself is. Did i say profit, I meant Prophet! I'm a prophet, they're all prophets, they and I must be bowed down to as GODS!

[Dr.Phool]

75. You just love rattling his cage, dontcha?

:evilgrin:

[specimenfred1984]

78. Anyones cage for that matter! He's only 1 of millions of the people

who are thoroughly convinced they are smarter than everyone else, members of "America the Illiterate" by Chris Hedges. Here's an excerpt:

--- We live in two Americas. One America, now the minority, functions in a print-based, literate world. It can cope with complexity and has the intellectual tools to separate illusion from truth. The other America, which constitutes the majority, exists in a non-reality-based belief system. This America, dependent on skillfully manipulated images for information, has severed itself from the literate, print-based culture. It cannot differentiate between lies and truth. It is informed by simplistic, childish narratives and clichés. It is thrown into confusion by ambiguity, nuance and self-reflection. This divide, more than race, class or gender, more than rural or urban, believer or nonbeliever, red state or blue state, has split the country into radically distinct, unbridgeable and antagonistic entities. ---

[Dr.Phool]

81. I'll dig up that article later.

I saw it posted the other day, and didn't have a chance to read it. Chris Hedges is usually a good read.

[Demeter]

95. I Resemble That Remark!

I'm a minority! We are all part of that minority! Don't you feel better about yourself, now that your are entitled to victimhood?

[Roland99]

72. 3:47pm - Faeries trying to keep the floor from collapsing

DJIA 8,326.62 -367.34 -4.23%
Nasdaq 1,513.94 -66.96 -4.24%
S&P 500 858.20 -40.75 -4.53%
Global Dow 1,433.21 -59.51 -3.99%
Dow Util 355.31 -8.68 -2.38%
NYSE 5,348.76 -285.61 -5.07%
AMEX 1,315.35 -54.46 -3.98%
Russell 2000 459.27 -23.02 -4.77%
Semcond 718.30 -14.50 -1.98%
30-Year Bond 4.19% -0.02 -0.43%
10-Year Bond 3.67% -0.09 -2.40%


Was well under my predicted floor of 8,300 just a moment ago.

[Roland99]

76. At the close - NASDAQ at 5 1/2 year low. DJIA under 8,300. S&P under 860.

DJIA 8,282.66 -411.30 -4.73%
Nasdaq 1,499.21 -81.69 -5.17%
S&P 500 852.30 -46.65 -5.19%
Global Dow 1,429.57 -63.15 -4.23%
Dow Util 353.72 -10.27 -2.82%
NYSE 5,320.71 -313.66 -5.57%
AMEX 1,304.53 -65.28 -4.77%
Russell 2000 452.80 -29.49 -6.11%
Semcond 718.30 -14.50 -1.98%
30-Year Bond 4.19% -0.02 -0.43%
10-Year Bond 3.67% -0.09 -2.40%


Well...below my predicted floor and S&P under 860 bodes very ill, eh? Elliott Wave followers chime in!

[fedsron2us]

77. I think this Bear Market will take the S&P below 500 before it turns

It is going to be that bad.

[ozone_man]

97. Well, yeah.

But it may take a few more years to get to the bottom. Probably lower than 500 though. I would compare it to 1929-1933 descent. We are almost a year and a half in from the top, so have at least that long to get to the bottom, in my opinion. A lot of yoyo action in between, but all yoyos eventually lose there spin. Unless you have a Duncan Imperial yoyo. ;)

[UpInArms]

83. postmortem blather to add to the mix

4:30 pm : Stocks tumbled on Wednesday after a major retailer sharply reduced its full year earnings estimate and the Treasury said it was going to expand its emergency financial relief actions. In the end, the S&P 500 fell 5.2%, settling near session lows. The Nasdaq dropped 5.2% to its lowest closing level in five and a half years.

Treasury Secretary Paulson announced that the Treasury is dropping its original plan to buy troubled mortgage assets, as it no longer believes the plan is the most effective way to use the $700 billion financial relief package.

Instead, the Treasury will focus on three priorities for the remaining $410 billion in TARP funds. First, it will work to reinforce the stability of the financial system, which may include another round of direct equity investments. This time, however, the Treasury is also considering the needs of nonbanking companies.

Second, Paulson said the government will look at ways to support credit from outside the banking system, including the development of a liquidity facility for AAA asset-backed securities. The Treasury hopes the facility would increase consumer access to credit, as asset-backed securities typically encompass auto loans, student loans and credit cards.

Third, the Treasury is looking at ways to mitigate mortgage foreclosures.

Investors drove stocks lower on the news, recognizing that although funding markets have improved from five weeks ago, the notion that banks and nonbanks will still likely need more capital implies the stabilization period will be an extended one.

In corporate news, Best Buy (BBY 21.97, -1.91) said it is facing the most difficult climate it has ever seen. As a result, the company slashed its fiscal year 2009 (ends in February) earnings per share guidance $2.30 and $2.90 from its previous forecast of $3.25 to $3.40. This falls well below the consensus estimate of $3.02 per share and would mark a year-over-year decrease of between 28% and 9%.

Department store operator Macy's (M 8.37, -1.04) managed to post a smaller-than-expected third quarter loss and issue in-line full year guidance, but said it is increasingly concerned that it won't see the improvement in spring 2009 that it anticipated as recently as a month ago.

All ten of the economic sectors declined in broad-based weakness. The financial sector was a laggard, falling 6.9%. American Express (AXP 20.08, -2.32) fell 10.4%% on a Wall Street Journal report that the credit card company is requesting $3.5 billion from government aid.

The energy sector dropped 7.3% as crude prices plummeted 6.1% to $55.71 per barrel.

Defensive oriented sectors outperformed on a relative basis, but still posted steep declines. Utilities shed 2.8% and consumer staples dropped 3.8%.

Automakers were a pocket of strength. General Motors (GM 3.12, +0.20) and Ford (F 1.86, +0.06) gained on reports that the Rep. Barney Frank wants the Treasury to use some of its $700 billion to provide $25 billion in loans to GM, Ford and Chrysler.

Treasuries rose as risk averse investors sold stocks and commodities (-2.6%). The 10-year note fell 26 ticks to 3.64%, while the 3-month T-bill yield dropped 27 basis points to just 0.15%.

The S&P 500 is now only 1.5% above its Oct. 10 multi-year intraday low and is down 42.0% this year.DJ30 -411.30 NASDAQ -81.69 NQ100 -4.9% R2K -6.1% SP400 -5.5% SP500 -46.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 338/2.20 bln/2474 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 236/1.46 bln/2873

3:35 pm : Sellers continue to drive stocks lower, with the S&P 500 down more than 5%. Volume, however, is on the light side with just 980 million shares exchanging hands on the NYSE.

Goldman Sachs (GS 65.29, -9.30) is getting hit especially hard, down 12.5%.

The earnings calender after the close today and before the open tomorrow is relatively light, although close attention will be paid to results from Wal-Mart (WMT 52.47, -2.28) tomorrow morning. On the economic front, the weekly unemployment claims, trade balance, and monthly budget statements will be released on Thursday.DJ30 -359.37 NASDAQ -71.48 SP500 -41.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 362/1.67 bln/2428 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 267/980 mln/2833

3:00 pm : The Nasdaq falls to session lows, while the Dow and S&P 500 approach their worst levels.

Google (GOOG 289.69, -21.77) is one of the worst performing stocks within the Nasdaq, falling to its lowest level in three years. Several brokerage firms have cut their earnings estimates on Google, fearing that the global economic slowdown is impacting online ad sales.DJ30 -329.90 NASDAQ -69.98 SP500 -38.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 371/1.49 bln/2386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 306/874 mln/2783

[Demeter]

96. Gee Hank, What Was Your First Clue?

Was it the rotten fruits and vegetables thrown at you by every secretary of the treasury, etc. in Europe? The continued tanking of every measure of the economic health of the world? Death threats?

[Dr.Phool]

80. Good evening fans.

I finally get a chance to check in.

I'm stuck in a house with a grouchy old man, who's on percocet, which makes him even grouchier. He doesn't even own stocks, so that ain't it. McCain lost to a Democrat. Any Democrat, which makes him even more irritable, although he is seemingly catching on. It's probably the drugs.

I got up to have my morning coffee, and tuned in CNBC to watch some fascist court jester, coming in his pants with glee, that autoworkers and retiree's might wind up losing their health insurance.

"Why should some poor person who can't afford health insurance have to pay tax money to some auto worker or retiree so that they can keep their gold-plated health insurance"? No, you fucking dickhead, the question is, "Why doesn't that poor person have health care"?
Why do we allow it in this country? I want to tax him into oblivion, and confiscate all of his ill-gotten gains, that someone else worked for, and use it for universal, single-payer. We'll even insure you, you asshole.

Anyway, I hope everyone had a happy, prosperous day. And, I have it on good authoritative numbers, that according to the 3 millenium moving average, that the Dow cannot close below zero. My fee is a cup of coffee. Nah, make that Stoli. I could use a few about now.

[DemReadingDU]

86. Hey, thanks for checking in!

My dad went thru back surgery a few years ago. The surgery went well, but it took him forever to recover. Hang in there, we always feel better that we spent time with our parents as they get older. You just never know what the future holds for them.

One funny incident...he was taking so many meds, that he started thumping out messages in Morse code on his dinner tray.
LOL

[ozymandius]

93. Stupid should be painful.

The overpaid clown you saw, wearing clothes he did not pay for (the company did), gushing over how we he will bask in the glory of a right-sized world (e.g. sans healthcare for poor people) and mocking those who he feels ought to suffer for the greater good of humankind his ego deserves to live an incredibly long time as a desperately destitute soul as described in either a Dickens or Kafka novel.

Decent folks should shun this parasite.

[Pale Blue Dot]

84. WOW. Look at futures taking a dive after the close.

:wow: :scared:

[Roland99]

91. Intel: Quarterly results to be 'below expectations'

Intel: Quarterly results to be 'below expectations'
Chip maker's shares slide in late trading; R&D spending to be lowered
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Intel-says-quarterly-results-below/story.aspx?guid=%7B355F641D%2D60B6%2D4E60%2D809C%2DEEC83B3506A0%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Intel Corp. said late Wednesday that it expects financial results for its current, fourth fiscal quarter to be "below expectations," as the technology bellwether grapples with a flagging economy.

The chip maker said it now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be $9 billion, "plus or minus $300 million," which is lower than the company's previous expectation of between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion.

Intel's pared outlook is only the latest sign that the ongoing financial crisis is beginning to significantly impact the technology sector.

"Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments," Intel said in a statement. "In addition, the PC supply chain is aggressively reducing component inventories."

Shares of Intel slid nearly 7% lower in late trading, to $12.59.

[UpInArms]

98. Peeps decide not to buy stupid colorful Chinese plastic shoes- Crocs posts deep loss, shares plummet

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AB94Y20081112

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Crocs Inc (CROX.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) posted a deep quarterly loss on Wednesday as sales of its colorful plastic shoes plunged and it racked up high restructuring costs, sending its shares down 37 percent in extended trade.

The former Wall Street darling also outlined several new measures to slash costs, including shutting a Brazilian manufacturing plant and reducing capital expenditures for next year by 50 percent from 2008 levels.

Launched in 2002, Crocs' quirky, bright and comfortable shoes were an immediate hit, but their novelty has since waned, and the weak U.S. economy has further crimped demand and hampered investor interest in the stock.

Since hitting a lifetime high of $75.21 in October of last year, Crocs shares have shed more than 97 percent of their value, closing at $1.90 Wednesday on Nasdaq.

Crocs had a net loss of $148.0 million, or $1.79 per share, in its third quarter ended Sept 30, compared with a net profit of $56.5 million, or 66 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

It was not immediately clear whether that was comparable to the 2 cents per share in profit expected, on average, by analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.

Sales fell 32 percent to $174.2 million, below the $201.7 million expected, on average, by Wall Street.

In August, Niwot, Colorado-based Crocs estimated third-quarter earnings of 1 cent to 5 cents per share on revenue of $195 million to $205 million.

...more...