Unemployment expected to hit 9%, Wachovia economists say

[UpInArms]

Source: CBS Marketwatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession is likely to be as long and severe as the downturns in 1973-75 and 1981-82, economists at Wachovia said Wednesday. Gross domestic product will likely fall for four consecutive quarters, according to the forecast released by chief economist John Silvia. Domestic demand is expected to fall for five straight quarters, which would be the longest decline since the government started keeping track in 1947. The unemployment rate is expected to peak in late 2010 at 9%, which would be the highest since 1983. In October, the unemployment rate was 6.5%.

Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD7A29379%2DB5AC%2D41F3%2D8977%2D842BCB3B3B6A%7D

[OhioChick]

1. It's already higher than that...

If you count those whose unemployment benefits ran out and weren't counted.

[davekriss]

10. That meme seems to never die

As I understand it, the unemployment rate is not based on whether or not you collect unemployment. It is based on, in effect, a household poll. If the person called is out of work and has looked for work in the previous 4 weeks, the person is considered "unemployed"; if the person is out of work and has not looked for work in the previous 4 weeks, the person is not counted at all. In the latter case, it could be because the person voluntarily left the workforce, or because they were layed off and have grown frustrated after looking for work without success for a long time. The latter should be included in the unemployment rate, but is not.

[OhioChick]

16. Interesting...

Wonder what areas they're polling then? I'd like to hear the results from Cleveland or Detroit.

[davekriss]

17. Well, here, you can look for yourself

You can use this bls.gov popup to lookup the stats on any city or metropolitan area: http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=la

Seasonally adjusted unemployment for September 2008 in the Detroit metropolitan area is 8.5% (it was 9% in August).

Seasonally adjusted unemployment for September 2008 in the Cleveland metropolitan area was 7.1% (it was 7.5% in August).

A very important point to note is the declining size of the labor force in these metro areas (and nationally). It's declining, not because so many people are merrily retiring, but because more and more workers simply give up on finding a job (some, too, leave the area in search of jobs elsewhere). These workers -- again, if they have not looked for work in the past 4 weeks -- are not counted as part of the labor force nor numbered among the unemployed. But the fact is they are labor, not the idle rich, they are unemployed although they'd love a job, and they are suffering greatly. The widely quoted unemployment rate hides this segment from view, the discouraged worker. There are, however, other ratios published by BLS that try to account for these long-idle workers, but they are not widely touted in the establishment press.

[truthisfreedom]

2. Who are they trying to kid? In 2011 and 2012 the demographic of 45-54 year olds is going to fall

off a cliff, and take the stock market with it. We'll see 25% unemployment within 10 years after that. Anyone who isn't looking that far ahead is insane. The ONLY reason that insurance companies and the government won't talk about this is that they're afraid everyone will simply quit spending in preparation for the greatest economic collapse in history, which will probably last for 25% of our lifetimes (most of the end of mine, unfortunately... rats!)

For anyone curious about this... look at any demographic chart showing distribution of age groups, and you'll see the influence of the pill's release by the FDA in 1960. Between the early 60's and the late 70's there was such a reduction of population growth as a result of the pill that the whole population curve reset to a new angle, and the effect of that at this time is the shortage of high-income earners that put money into the stock market, starting in about 2011.

Read "The Great Bust Ahead" by Daniel Arnold.

[WriteDown]

5. Interesting stuff....

I wonder if you could make an argument against the pill based on that. Although I shudder to think what my life would be like if that was the case :).

[BootinUp]

9. Do you know how many predictions of the future

by intelligent people turn out wrong? Why do you buy into one persons best guess to such a degree that you ramble it off as fact? You sound ridiclous.

Its like the peak oil nonsense or so many other bullshit predictions.

[Idealism]

3. Makes no bones about it:

We are headed up shits creek without a paddle :/

Unemployment figures are drastically wrong, they don't count people whose severance pay or unemployment checks have run out. They also don't count the underemployed, people who would like to work 40+ hours a week but must settle on part time due to cut backs at their companies. Real-time unemployment is much more bleak of a figure than the paltry 6.5% it is currently stated as.

[BanTheGOP]

4. 100% Caused by republicans...despite the warnings

This is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT caused by policies that originated with the Goldwater conservatives, set into permanence by the reaganites, and solidified by the bush dictatorship. Now we have to spend years, perhaps decades, to reverse it.

NOW does everyone see that the republican party is NOT a political party by ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION? It is EVERY BIT AS EVIL, in fact MORE evil, than the German Nazi party or the hordes run by Ghengis Khan.

The republican party needs to be rendered obsolete, preferably through RICO statutes.

[Doctor_J]

6. In 1980 numbers, that's about 17% - not too far from 1930 numbers

Another Republican Great Depression

[ananda]

7. That means 18 to 20%

In real numbers.

And above that number are the struggling people
with part time and low pay jobs.

[Mari333]

8. In Michigan, we are already used to it. n/t

[happygoluckytoyou]

11. at least SOME of them are BUSH advisors and GOP politicians... yeehah!!!

[Ex Lurker]

12. bad as that is, I'll be pleased if it only hits 9% n/t

sdfg

[GreenTea]

13. 1973-75 and 1981-82 and 2001- 02 and now 2007-08 All with republican presidents in office!

Not to mention the recession during republican Bush Sr. in 1990-92 that Clinton inherited.

Just as Obama is inheriting republican Bush Jr. mess....

ALL republican recessions because the republicans cater only to the rich & the corporations and steal everything from the workers.

[blue_onyx]

14. Peak in late 2010?

That sucks. In Michigan, we're practically at 9% already (it was somewhere around 8.5% last I heard). So if it's 9% nationally, it will likely be at least 15% here. Just never seems to get better.

[hatrack]

15. Yes, and that's the "official" unemployment rate . . .

If you're talking about U6, it's probably going to be closer to 13 - 15%.

[walktall7]

18. How about

Average 350,000 new per week times 52 weeks per year times 7 years = 127 million out of work.