STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 13, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 68
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2576 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2867
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 12, 2008

Dow... 8,282.66 -411.30 (-4.73%)
Nasdaq... 1,499.21 -81.69 (-5.17%)
S&P 500... 852.30 -46.65 (-5.19%)
Gold future... 718.30 -14.50 (-1.98%)
30-Year Bond 4.19% -0.02 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.67% -0.09 (-2.40%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

On the Road to Recovery?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

We are all well aware by now of the more than doubling of the Fed’s balance sheet in the past couple months, surpassing the $2 trillion mark for the first time. The question then becomes, if the Fed is drastically expanding its balance sheet then why are we not seeing a noticeable change in the economy? The answer lies in the fact that banks are scared and hoarding capital as well as raising lending standards across all loan types, and so the cheap money being offered by the Fed is not finding its way into the economy.

-charts-

Because banks are hoarding their reserves, loans are not being made and economic growth is slowing which then leads to a drop in the money velocity (GDP divided by the money supply), or a drop in the supply of money finding its way into the economy as money in the economy does not change hands as much. This is typically the hallmark of recessions, and economic turnarounds are often seen when the money velocity picks back up as the money in supply changes hands more frequently in the economy.

.....

While banks may be on the road to recovery as their profitability improves from a positively slopped yield curve and with the write down of nearly a trillion dollars in debts behind them, the question then is what type of road lies ahead of them? The answer could be summed up in one word - DELEVERAGING. Bank credit relative to GDP absolutely skyrockted after the 1995 mid-cycle economic slow down. Bank credit to GDP ballooned to nearly 67% of GDP, nearly four standard deviations above its long-term average of 44% as we truly were in a credit bubble. The primary culprit of the expansion in bank credit relative to GDP was real estate loans. Real estate loans made up 29% of bank loans in 1998 and reached 40% of loans by 2007.

One of the most powerful concepts in finance is reversion to the mean in which a data series that moves too far away from its long term average (mean) has a tendency to revert back to its average and quite often overshoots the average in its reversion process. When looking at the figure below we can see that the average of 44% will act like a strong magnet as GDP expands relative to bank credit in the years ahead, likely taking several years to revert back to the mean.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

189. And Yet Paulson Vainly Tries to Releverage the Economy

Somebody buy that man a clue. He was interviewed for NPR, and sounded just as dry and grey as he looks.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 11/08
Briefing.com 475K
Consensus 479K
Prior NA

08:30 Trade Balance Sep
Briefing.com -$56.0B
Consensus -$57.0B
Prior -$59.1B

14:00 Treasury Budget Oct
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -$134.0B
Prior -$55.6B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

46. !!! Initial Claims @ 516,000 !!!

02. U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing claims rise to 3.79 million
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

03. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 65,000 to 3.89 million
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

04. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 13,250 to 491,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

05. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 32,000 to 516,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

06. U.S. Sept. trade deficit falls to $56.5 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

07. U.S. Sept. imports fall record 5.6% to $211.9 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

08. U.S. Sept. exports fall 6% to $155.4 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

09. U.S. Sept. exports fall record $9.9 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

10. U.S. Sept. imports fall record $12.5 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

17. U.S. Sept. trade deficit with China record $27.8 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

18. U.S. Sept. oil imports lowest quantity in 5 years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

19. U.S. Sept. real trade deficit in goods rises 6.7%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

20. U.S. Sept. real imports lowest in 3 years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 13, 2008

[UpInArms]

48. Initial U.S. jobless claims highest since Sept. 2001

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Initial-US-jobless-claims-highest/story.aspx?guid=%7B107C4D5D%2D7C6A%2D4869%2DBD19%2D5A6AFE334250%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits hit their highest level since September 2001 in the week ending Nov. 8, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims rose by 32,000 to 516,000, while the four-week average of those claims rose by 13,250 to 491,000. Continuing claims for the week ending Nov. 1 rose to 3.89 million, their highest level since 1983. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.79 million.

that pos has definitely hit the "trifecta" this time - 2 wars - economic depression and the worst terrorism attack on US soil ever - all within his mal-administration's term

[ozymandius]

53. Hoover's ghost is chuckling somewhere.

Harding, Coolidge and Hoover: it took a string of mediocre-to-awful presidents to push us into the economic abyss eighty years ago. This time we've managed with only one president and one party governance.

I suppose if Bush had been president long enough then history would have smiled on Nero for his forthright and level-headed competence.

[Roland99]

65. Crazy 8s?

Wasn't the first WTC attack 8 weeks into Clinton's term?

9/11 was 8 months into Dubya's?



:scared:

[Maeve]

66. I'm shocked, shocked. Round up the usual suspects

Surely this can't be the fault of any policies our grubberment might have put in place...who could have foreseen such a meltdown (besides the regulars of this thread, who have been actually paying attention?)

I'm watching stores that just opened this year close their doors, depressed areas going even further downhill and foreclosure lists in the paper multiply like healthy rabbits...and let's not even start on what my retirement money is doing. :hangover:

[ozymandius]

72. Dear Maeve, how often my thoughts turn to you and others

who live in the geographic region hardest hit by these times. Ohio has seen so much damage and the economic news speaks of more danger.

I hope you and yours are doing fine despite the stock portfolio.

[Maeve]

84. Actually, we are pretty good

Hubby's job is recession-resistant, #1 Son's new job is going well, #2 Son is highly-employable (EMT and close to LPN status, just got back to civilian life from National Guard training). We bought our house 12 years ago and have a low, fixed rate and equity to spare even if the housing prices tank (central Ohio has been fairly stable, I'm pleased to say) and we should ride this out okay. But anyone who didn't take the more (you should excuse the term) conservative approach the past few years--those are the ones I worry about.

Keep up the good work, my friend--I can't always comment, but I do always look at the market thread!
:hi: :toast:

[Ghost Dog]

86. You're excused for the term, Maeve,

since you clearly understand it.

Me too (my father taught well), though pretty far left radical otherwise. Through hard work earlier in life, and lots of love and luck (and her (Catalan also hard-earned) inheritance), there's no debt, everything paid for straight cash in my life. And no fancy spending, ever.

[AnneD]

211. Good to know that all is well Maeve...

We are hanging on here. We are expecting a down turn though. We are totally forgoing Christmas and doing good works instead. Decided to squeeze another year out of my car so we could do more.

Wrote a nice check for our school's Thanksgiving Dinner Program today. If they spend it wisely, 2 families can have a Thanksgiving Dinner or eat for a week or two.

The biggie will be getting a tuition check for one of my daughter's friends to start community college. That's the one that will really make me cry. We can't afford to pay a big amount, but we can pay for 1 or 2 courses to help get her started.

Her mom died when she was 16 and the kid dropped out of the arts high school and raised herself (with help from friends here and there). I lost track of her, but found her last month. She took the GED but has no money to get started for college. My daughter has this year covered-so I want to help her friend get her foot in the door. Hope the plan works.

Hubby is still thinking about his good works project but he is helping with the tuition.

We just decided we are doing well and we want to help some that wasn't. Yeah, we don't even want socks and under ware this christmas. Are we pathetic or what?

Glad you guys are safe.

[Ghost Dog]

212. Me too, AnneD, Maeve, me too.

It's not easy. But, if one can, moving some 'liquidity' into good useful hands is the right thing to do

imho.

Nice to 'see' you.

Let me pass this one on (again) - perhaps for 'hubby' - and of course for y'all:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n02qyrlBUk&feature=related

[AnneD]

214. I got curious and looked at.....

S.O'Connor's version too. Very good. Thanks.

[Demeter]

190. Unexpected, They Trumpet!

"Who could have guessed...."

That's the signature line for this Bushwhacked era.

[UpInArms]

135. U.S. Oct. federal deficit rises to record $237.2 billion

09. U.S. Oct. federal deficit rises to record $237.2 billion
2:01 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

10. U.S. Oct. deficit includes $136.5 billion in bailout funds
2:01 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

16. U.S. Oct outlays rise 71% to record $402 billion
2:01 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

17. U.S. Oct. revenues fall 7% to $164.8 billion
2:01 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls to $55 on grim US economic outlook

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slid to near $55 a barrel Thursday in Asia as more bad economic news from the U.S. heightened fears of a severe global downturn that will pulverize demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down $1.08 to $55.08 a barrel, after falling to as low as $54.67, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

"As the global economy continues to weaken, we're going to see further downward pressure on oil," said Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, in Singapore. "I think we'll certainly challenge the $50 threshold. We could challenge the $40 threshold."

The crude futures contract overnight fell $3.50 to settle at $56.16, the lowest closing price since January 2007, after the U.S. Energy Department slashed its 2009 oil consumption forecast.

.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 2.89 cents to $1.81 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 2.76 cents to $1.22 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery slid 11.3 cents to $6.29 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Energy agency cuts oil demand forecasts

PARIS – The International Energy Agency made new cuts Thursday to its global oil demand forecasts for this year and next as rich-world economies sink into recession and growth slows in the developing countries.

The Paris-based agency now expects global oil demand to average 86.2 million barrels a day this year, nearly flat compared to 2007, and 86.5 million barrels a day next year. The cuts come on top of those already made in the IEA's October and September reports.

The IEA said its forecast cuts, of 330,000 barrels a day this year and 670,000 barrels a day next year, take into account the International Monetary Fund's recently lowered forecast of 2.1 percent economic growth globally next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_international_energy_agency_2

[UpInArms]

42. Average gasoline prices fall below $2.20 a gallon

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Average-gasoline-prices-fall-below/story.aspx?guid=%7B93A83AD3%2D946E%2D4F9C%2DAAC4%2D4D4B282EA9D4%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The average retail cost in the U.S. for a gallon of unleaded gasoline fell 2 cents to $2.18, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report. A month ago, gasoline sold for $3.16 a gallon. A year ago, it sold for $3.11 a gallon. The highest recorded average price of $4.11 a gallon took place on July 17.

[Demeter]

191. I Paid $1.89 This Morning. It's Finally Dropping Like a Depression

Thing is, Michigan was ready for relief years ago....

[ozymandius]

5. Asian markets tumble on grim US corporate news

BANGKOK, Thailand – Asian stock markets tumbled Thursday as more signs of a sharp downturn in the U.S. economy spurred investors to dump shares of exporters like Sony and resource companies like BHP Billiton.

Investors also reacted nervously to U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's announcement that the government's $700 billion financial rescue package won't purchase troubled assets from banks as originally planned. The Treasury will instead rely on buying stakes in banks and encouraging them to resume more normal lending.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 456.87 points, or 5.3 percent, to 8,238.64 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dived 5.2 percent to 13,221.35.

Australia's benchmark index slid 5.9 percent to a four-year closing low of 3,697.3 as banks tumbled and lower commodity prices hit miners. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest miner, sank almost 12 percent and Rio Tinto was down more than 8 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Eugene]

7. Asia slumps amid bail-out U-turn

Source: BBC News

Page last updated at 10:16 GMT,
Thursday, 13 November 2008

Asia slumps amid bail-out U-turn

Stock markets across Asia have followed the downward
trend set by sharp falls on Wall Street, as fears grow
over the state of the US economy.

The falls came as the US signalled a shift in policy
on its $700bn bail-out.

-snip-

The Nikkei share index in Japan closed down 5.3%, while
the stock market in Hong Kong closed down 5.2%, South
Korea 3.2%, and Australia 5.9% - a four-year closing
low, with A$57bn ($37bn; £24bn) wiped from the market's
value.

-snip-

Correspondents say investors have been spooked that
huge capital injections and other emergency measures by
governments around the world have failed to halt a plunge
in markets.

-snip-

Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7726106.stm

[ozymandius]

6. Failure of auto industry could set off catastrophe

DETROIT – Advocates for the nation's automakers are warning that the collapse of the Big Three — or even just General Motors — could set off a catastrophic chain reaction in the economy, eliminating up to 3 million jobs and depriving governments of more than $150 billion in tax revenue.

Industry supporters are offering such grim predictions as Congress weighs whether to bail out the nation's largest automakers, which are struggling to survive the steepest economic slide in decades.

.....

Even if just GM collapsed, the failure could bring down the other two companies — and even the U.S. operations of foreign automakers — as parts suppliers run out of money and shut down.

.....

If a bailout is approved, it's likely to come with significant strings attached. Even proponents like Brown would like to see limits on executive pay and a ban on shareholder dividends. Others have suggested management changes and tougher fuel economy requirements.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081112/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_autos

[ozymandius]

14. Is General Motors Worth Saving?

For months, General Motors had been telling everyone who would listen that bankruptcy was not an option. It had a $30 billion cash pile and plans to restructure the company as the economy rebounded and 2007 U.S. auto sales topped 16 million units.

Then came October. Sales plummeted an astounding 45% over the same period last year, a result of a slowing economy and a dearth of financing for would-be car buyers. Total U.S. car and light-truck sales this year could come in at 13.5 million, 2.6 million fewer than last year. "That's in nobody's business plan," says Kimberly Rodriguez, an automotive specialist with Grant Thornton. "The best planning in the world cannot survive that fluctuation." It's now clear that GM can't survive as an ongoing entity without massive federal assistance. The company is burning through more than $2 billion each month. It has $16 billion left. As if they were aboard a dirigible losing altitude, GM's bosses have been frantically throwing all manner of stuff overboard — retiree health-care benefits, people, assets, new car design — to conserve $5 billion. That will get it through the year.

....

"If GM were to go into a free-fall bankruptcy and didn't pay its trade debts, then the entire domestic auto industry shuts down," says Rodriguez. The system — the domestic auto plants and their interconnected group of suppliers — is far bigger than GM. It includes 54 North American manufacturing plants and at least 4,000 so-called Tier 1 suppliers — firms that feed parts and subassemblies directly to those plants. That includes mom-and-pop outfits but also a dozen or so large companies such as Lear, Johnson Controls and GM's former captive Delphi. Beyond those are thousands of the suppliers' suppliers.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1858702,00.html

[Demeter]

192. NPR Reported GM Takes 2 Months to Pay Suppliers

Whatever happened to Just In Time? Shouldn't it be a two way street?

[54anickel]

19. Ozy, I don't quite understand all these calls lately against dividends. Weren't they at one time

what owning stock was all about rather than all this growth, inflation of the value of the asset? This is like the 4th time I've seen dividend paying dissed and it really does have me confused.

[ozymandius]

24. It feels like a backlash against disingenuous business pactices to me.

Do you remember when Meredith Whitney made headlines with her scathing comments last year against Citigroup for paying a dividend? Citi posted a loss and yet issued a dividend anyway. That makes no damn sense.

The situation in which we see companies (pick any automaker, a tech sector company, a bank) under stress forces the issue to conserve funds. To my mind, this temporary suspension of dividend payments speaks to a greater matter: reversion to the mean (see today's WrapUp). Corporations must realign themselves and totally reassess long-term expectations. I expect that dividends will suffer prominently during this transition.

[54anickel]

27. Thanks Ozy, I think I get it. Today's dividends ain't what Dad's dividends once were. Nothing long

term about today's business climate, it's all about chewin' 'em up and spittin' 'em out to make a quick buck since "in the end we're all dead anyway".

[Tansy_Gold]

30. I concur, 54nickel

And when you consider that many of today's "investors" probably bought into the fast buck mindset, too, I think there's a justification for a "why should they profit off everyone else's loss?" attitude.

I have friends/acquaintances who are relatively small-time investors -- mostly middle-class widows, to be perfectly honest with you -- who are bemoaning thedrop in their incomes based on the lack of TRADING success of their brokers/financial planners/whatever. Even for them it's not a matter of having bought GM or Ford or whatever stock in order to reap the income from the company's profits; it's all about finding another sucker for an over-inflated stock value.

As always, :nopity: from



Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

74. Great.... Just great.

Y'all just smashed my little long-term investing illusions.

:cry:

;(

[Ghost Dog]

88. Drag. You _did_ have a plan to look after all those retirement plans

and health schemes, right, Prag?

[Ghost Dog]

80. Accompanying music. Real dividends will return one day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3pOn_qymIw&feature=related (Mahler Adagietto)

[Ghost Dog]

110. Or, better, (Complete Movement):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EIJ6gbsrwk

[Demeter]

193. Wall St.'s Dirty Little Secret--Nobody's Made a Real Profit In Years

With the exception of JK Rowling, it's all smoke and mirrors: profits on paper, tax write-offs, and all the bosses voted themselves lots of loot and gutted their companies and their employees.

[Tansy_Gold]

200. Psssssst -- DUers knew this "secret" a long time ago! But don't

tell anyone!

Oh, yeah, in case anyone didn't understand -- :sarcasm:




Tansy Gold, one of many who knew

[Ghost Dog]

202. It's on record. We knew. n/t

- abrazos -

[ozymandius]

8. Congress examines $700 billion rescue program

WASHINGTON – While the Bush administration shifts course on its $700 billion rescue plan, Congress is examining whether even bigger changes should be made in the program in light of the deteriorating economy and soaring mortgage foreclosures.

.....

Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will hear from executives of a number of financial institutions including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on the issue of how the government's $700 billion rescue effort is operating and particularly whether the government should be requiring more commitments on the use of the money to address rising mortgage foreclosure problems.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced Wednesday that the administration had decided to scrap what had originally been the centerpiece of the program — a proposal to buy troubled assets to get them off the books of banks as a way of promoting increased lending.

Instead, Paulson said the administration will proceed with an alternative plan to spend $250 billion to buy stock in the banks as a way of bolstering their financial situation and accomplishing the same goal — getting the institutions to return to more normal lending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

---

This $700 billion now appears to be a slush fund for Paulson, Bernanke and their pals.

[DemReadingDU]

22. slush fund for Paulson, Bernanke and their pals

Yep, I never thought it was ever setup to help anyone else. Only to enrich themselves and cronies until the new administration. And personally, I think it's going to be more than $700B, I think their intent is to drain out the Treasury of every one of hard earned tax dollars.

:grr:

[rfranklin]

31. The Treasury was drained long ago....

These dollars are funny money but if they can convert them into more solid assets before there is a total loss of faith in the ability of the US government to repay these debts, they have made a nice profit without have to work for it. That's what makes capitalism so wonderful!

[ozymandius]

9. Foreclosures up 25 percent: RealtyTrac

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. foreclosure activity in October rose 25 percent from a year earlier, although filings in California fell by double-digit percentage points for the second consecutive month due to a state law slowing the foreclosure process, according to a monthly report by RealtyTrac.

Foreclosure filings -- default notices, auction sales notices and bank repossessions -- rose by 5 percent from September to 279,561 in October, according to Irvine, California-based research firm RealtyTrac.

That means one in every 452 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in October, the firm said in its report released on Thursday.

....

Nevada posted the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the 22nd consecutive month in October, with one in every 74 housing units, or 14,483, receiving a foreclosure filing during the month -- more than six times the national average.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081113/us_nm/us_foreclosures_2

[ozymandius]

10. Many mortgage indictments seen under Obama

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal criminal probes into mortgage lending will likely produce many indictments under Barack Obama's presidency, legal experts said on Wednesday.

.....

The FBI said in September it was probing 26 cases of possible corporate fraud related to the collapse of the mortgage industry. The investigations are said to include major mortgage lenders as well as insurer American International Group Inc.

During the campaign, Obama blamed the mortgage debacle and resulting financial crisis on lax government oversight, and promised to establish stiff penalties for mortgage fraud. As a senator, he has proposed spending more on state and federal law enforcement and imposing new penalties for mortgage fraud.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081112/pl_nm/us_usa_obama_financial_1

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

47. Keep those investigations humming.

26 is just the tippy-top of the iceberg, what lies below the surface dwarfs Greenland. Keep it going and make it VERY aggressive. Put the fear of ghod in the bastards from the top to the bottom, and any convictions should be followed with long and meaningful sentences. The kind of sentences that send the message to others: "Do you REALLY want your sorry ass in THIS sling?".

It's time to clean up Tombstone, and we need The Earps.

[Demeter]

194. Now THAT'S A Change I Can Believe In!

:popcorn:

[Roland99]

11. 5:30am - Futures slightly to the downside

DJIA INDEX 8,248.00 -32.00
S&P 500 850.50 -3.00
NASDAQ 100 1,151.50 -12.00

[Festivito]

12. Debt: 11/10/2008 10,622,223,198,682.50 (UP 56,257,050.90) (The no-borrow Monday.)

(The pattern becomes: little change for days followed by a day of heavy borrowing, say each week. On Mondays there is consistantly little to no borrowing. Who cares. Just say'n. Good Thursday to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,690,409,750.62 + 4,263,532,788,931.92
DOWN 178,876,517.33 + UP 235,133,568.19
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 15,611,512,684.59.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,928,058,879.21.
The average for the last 31 days would be 10,575,540,850.85.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 28 reports in 41 days of FY2009 averaging 21.34B$ per report, 14.57B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 71 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/10/2008 10,622,223,198,682.50 GWB (UP 4,894,027,402,500.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 597,498,301,770.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT:
10/21/2008 +000,055,042,092.95 ------------*******
10/22/2008 +035,922,282,339.83 ------------**********
10/23/2008 +024,603,393,878.21 ------------**********
10/24/2008 -000,913,156,317.59 -----------
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 ----------- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 -----------
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 ----------- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 -----------
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 -----------
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 ----------- Mon

169,042,985,745.51 Total of 15 reports above.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $957,591,395,423.43 in last 53 days.
That's 958B$ in 53 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 53 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 53 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3597048&mesg_id=3597153

[DemReadingDU]

25. just wow, amazing. that's a heap of money

so a ten * day, indicates more debt of double digit billions?
a nine * day, indicates more debt of single digit billions?
an eight * day, indicates more debt of triple digit millions?

Thanks for keeping track of this every day

[Festivito]

73. Yup. LOG10. Not quite the visual I want yet.

I'd like to play with the population figures and put it in cost per person and perhaps even per worker, and per family. Needs to reflect more its real damage to persons than just to be a cold cost. But, more time later hopefully.

Thanks for the responses.

[Ghost Dog]

83. Did you try working with the OpenOffice spreadsheet, btw?

Paying close attention here, thankyou Festivito.

[Festivito]

96. Not yet. I suspect same trouble will occur.

The problem with the lost 16th digit is most probably a hardware floating point issue. Have to call Intel/AMD and such on that.

My work supplies the latest MS-Poop so I need to work with it and discover some of its limitations.

For home, I keep wanting to switch to linux and would gladly acclimate myself to Open Office and play with its going back and forth. But, I hardly have time to read DUs greatest anymore in between home and interpersonal duties, let alone shift my operating computer paradigm.

[Hugin]

100. OpenOffice is available for the... :brr:

Windows OS.

http://www.openoffice.org/

[Ghost Dog]

113. Yes. And Linux of course. n/t

I refuse to use more than the OS (out of historical necessity, compatibility), if that maybe soon I'll change, from those unpresentable serially-attempting disgusting monopolists.

[Ghost Dog]

112. But, you're dealing with integers (and decimals),

not real numbers...

The real number floating-point processor shouldn't be required, surely?

But then, my cybernetic systems engineering days date back to the 'seventies/eighties...

Should be no problem with integers. Just shift registers and continue accumulating... As far as there is available memory (core). If you follow me.

[Festivito]

188. Pretty sure it's only a 53-54 bit mantissa, 1 sign, 10 exponent.=64.

They can assume one mantissa bit.

50 would allow 15 digits. The other 4 would give another maybe two with the excess from the 50, but dropping that 16th digit.

They could use a 64-bit integer and then shift the decimal. Excel does not have a function for that.

Remember old BCD? That would work.

[Ghost Dog]

201. I remember BCPL.

And just loved writing Pascal under the UCSD P-System.

Spoke Lisp for a while there (stretching a bit my 'natural' intelligence), too.

I repeat, and ask a question: Have modern, so-powerful, processors 'forgotten' the enormous distinction between integers and real numbers?

I guess so. The 'rich' often end up abusing their own wealth, as well as the 'poor' (and the planet), so ignorantly.

[Festivito]

203. Ah, the good old days.

Did some Pascal on VAX. Did not try Lisp, but did SNOBOL, and, oh, APL where any program could be written on one line. Now there was a language.

[Ghost Dog]

204. Heh heh.

(My brain's no longer as malleable as it was then, though! I try to get younger folks to do what's necessary, these days...) :)

(Begin) (But, (I) ((still) have (a bit (of)) a (bracket) fetish)) (End)

[Ghost Dog]

207. Man, DEC 8, DEC 10, DEC VAX...

Beautiful machines. And beautiful machine languages (step below Assembly language, nah, those not in the know won't follow anyway).

Data General. Someone wrote a Tom Wolfe-style description of the work going on there before they disappeared, thanks to screwed-up management. Did you read it?

Cuban friends have described to me what it was like working their "cybernetic" side, with years in that cold, but heartfelt land included.

-----> http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2008/sep/06/design.coldwar (Frances Stonor Saunders).

Sure, the very scrutable short-attention-spanners aren't reading, anyway...

[Festivito]

208. Did work on a Data General with its 12" floppies.

Were they 12"? They were big.

Robotized a testing machine with it. The lab guys loved it.

That's where one of the techs told me that cold temperatures degrade O-Rings profoundly. Something that I would recall when Florida had a freeze the night before the first fatal launch. I screamed at the TV that morning: "No, you can't launch that today." Then it blew up in front of my eyes.

To this day I wonder if Reagan pushed the NASA people to launch that day. Something repeated when Bush took over, and Bush took over.

EDIT, The art of socialism. Funny how capitalism brought us open windowed expression as artists fought with the closed dark times, and socialism brought a political design that expressed cold dark times. Should form follow function, or should they both follow humans.

From our house to Bauhaus to your house. Good-day.

[Ghost Dog]

209. Fuck.

:cry: :grouphug:

ed. They were 12", yes. You've followed the same history as I. Much more sophisticated than, you know, vinyl music LPs...

'Nuff said. Will the 'young' ever get taught, ever learn?

EDIT: That was corrupted socialism (Old Georgian Joe S., No worse bastard.), perhaps because powerfully threatened, perhaps in a knee-jerk kind of way, from perhaps too-simplistic, also propagandistic, always aggressive US side.

There are better ways... :hi:

[Festivito]

180. Debt: 11/12/2008 10,618,508,632,584.50 (DOWN 3,714,566,098.00) (3rd low report.)

(Last big borrowing occurred last Thursday--reported on last Friday. Have to wait for tomorrow. They need to borrow just to run government.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,806,971,888.52 + 4,259,701,660,695.98
UP 116,562,137.90 + DOWN 3,831,128,235.94
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 14,733,054,558.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,804,240,009.28.
The average for the last 33 days would be 9,822,036,372.07.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 43 days of FY2009 averaging 20.48B$ per report, 13.81B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 69 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/12/2008 10,618,508,632,584.50 GWB (UP 4,890,312,836,402.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 593,783,735,672.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/22/2008 +035,922,282,339.83 ------------**********
10/23/2008 +024,603,393,878.21 ------------**********
10/24/2008 -000,913,156,317.59 -----------
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 ----------- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 -----------
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 ----------- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 -----------
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 -----------
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 ----------- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********

169,104,505,790.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $953,876,829,325.43 in last 55 days.
That's 954B$ in 55 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 55 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 55 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3598849&mesg_id=3598868

[ozymandius]

13. U.S. Shifts Focus in Credit Bailout to the Consumer

WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department on Wednesday officially abandoned the original strategy behind its $700 billion effort to rescue the financial system, as administration officials acknowledged that banks and financial institutions were as unwilling as ever to lend to consumers.

But with a little more than two months left before President Bush leaves office, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is hoping to put in place a major new lending program that would be run by the Federal Reserve and aimed at unlocking the frozen consumer credit market.

The program, still in the planning stages, would for the first time use bailout funds specifically to help consumers instead of banks, savings and loans and Wall Street firms.

Treasury officials said they hoped to invest about $50 billion from the bailout fund into the new loan facility, with the aim of helping companies that issue credit cards, make student loans and finance car purchases.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/13/business/economy/13bailout.html?bl&ex=1226725200&en=8493bad0556dcca4&ei=5087%0A

---

Did somebody konk Paulson in the head? He's talking about putting money into the hands of people who will use it.

[Ghost Dog]

20. Definitely, if this is for real. Trying to save their skins,

never mind their reputations, some of them...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

26. He's saturated his friends with our dollars...

And had to stop, because they were just being stupid with them and not holding up their side of the bargain. Now, he has to mollify the proles, in the hopes of heading off violent mobs in the streets.

And do not discount that last sentence as hyperbole. People are goddamned angry and have lost faith in this maladministration as an honest broker. This does not bode well for calm within civil society. Desperate people do desperate things.

Thus, Max Baucus' recent softball to universal coverage, with lots of ass protection for the industry, especially insurance: that was preemption writ large, get something out there that protects big health, big hospitals, big insurance and big pharma, before rabid mobs start dragging executives to the guillotine. Make sure that there are some potential protections for them in the mix when the negotiations well and truly start, and make it look like someone is doing something to keep the lid from coming off immediately. Health care has become, truly, the most financially unrealistic industry in the US. With all the financial unreality going around, that's almost impressive. Almost.

But after laying in bed in the hospital and attempting to watch what passes for TV these days(Note: this is not TV's golden age) I have a one-size-fits-all beginning solution for health care costs: Stop all drug advertisment. Stop it. They are spending huge fortunes on endless, incessant, back to back TV ads for drugs, bullshit health plans and lots else. Stop it. All. Now. It is killing the nation. Literally.

[Hugin]

79. Nice analysis Tandalayo... To which I will add.

How many Cold Remedies/other symptomatic treatments (notice I didn't say cure) do we really need containing the SAME
INGREDIENTS?!?!

[Ghost Dog]

85. Ah, "killing the nation", "violent mobs in the streets"...

My question from the other day answered, thanks TS. Not just China, then, is aware of the risks.

Hummm...

I still think the evil US PTB will choose further and even more nasty international aggression (ie. WAR) as a distraction (and sort-of TV opiate). Sorry.

[Tansy_Gold]

32. Not to beat a dead horse, but. . . . . .

that's nice that the credit card companies will free up credit so people can buy more cheap plastic crap.

Or maybe some people, already strapped, will buy groceries and clothes and pay the water bill with their expanded credit.

But ya know what? THE BILL STILL COMES DUE. Ya still gotta find the cash to make the payments and that cash ultimately has to come from jobs.

As an economy, we're already drowning in a sea of debt and these ignorant pieces of shit think the solution is to put us deeper? :grr:

Okay, where's the icon for the First Rule of Holes. . . .



Tansy Gold, who knows where HER shovels are

[AnneD]

41. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: and lurkers. I think reality may have sunk in. They have raided the coffers and are finally starting to grasp the fact that if the consumers don't have jobs-they don't/can't get anymore money via taxes. The consumer is just chin above water, in fact many ARE starting to go under. They have never given more than lip service to the whole consumer based economy idea. It is finally starting to bite them in the butt. And the fact that these bankers are just lining their pockets, cutting bonus checks, and having lavish retreats is only making him out to look like a jack ass at best a con man for his bank buddies at the worst. Congress shouldn't have given them ANY money in the first place but at least they only gave 1/2 what they wanted. The financial sector is beginning to feel OUR pain for a change. There won't be any reform until they DO bear some of this burden. If things continue this way-it will get ugly. Do you think adults with hungry little ones are going to sit and patiently wait for things to right themselves when these WS folks are getting their bonus checks. No, it will stick in their craw and they'll do something about it. I am waiting for some of these executives to get capped frankly-then I'll know we have entered the revolution that FDR averted.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

57. A beautiful sentiment, in truth.

Brings a tear to a glass eye. ;-)

[AnneD]

81. Now that is one saying....

that is new to me :spray: I like it.

[Ghost Dog]

90. Notice that this (video) version of this song is now top of the

youtube charts:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwTBCvb_4zo (Hasta Siempre)

[Hugin]

78. There's talk only $60 Billion of the $700 Billion remains.

I've heard that a couple of times.

Which is odd, because I thought they were supposed to check-in at the $350 Billion point.


THIS BAILOUT-TO-NOWHERE WAS THE MOST IDIOTIC THING... EVER! :grr:

[Demeter]

195. I Think Europe Kicked Paulson in the Ass

and with the Chinese being inscrutable, that did the trick...

[Ghost Dog]

205. Sssshhh. n/t

[Roland99]

15. WalMart lowers Q4 EPS from expected $1.11 to $1.03 - $1.07

just reported on CNBC

[Roland99]

38. Anyone see the point this guy is missing?

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/recessions-grim.html



Here is my reply to him:


Dear Mr. McIntyre.

I feel you are missing what is really behind the fact that WalMart is still earning a profit, despite it being at lowered level.

If people can no longer afford to shop at Gap, Best Buy, Macy's, etc. then they have nowhere else to go but places like WalMart (or perhaps to a local thrift store, which, by the way, is starting to happen as CNN reported recently a sharp increase in business at thrift stores. I guess those who used to shop at WalMart as a main source can't afford it there even and are headed to thrift stores.)

WalMart being a beacon of profitably is not a light of hope. It is the light of the oncoming train at the end of that proverbial tunnel.

[Zenlitened]

91. McIntyre has been very busy lately...

... throwing away his own credibility.

I see a lot of emotionalism in his posts, ranging from bitterness to wishful thinking.

Makes me suspect his world is crumbling in some fashion. Maybe financially, maybe philosophically as all the old rules about markets have virtually no relevance right now.

[Ghost Dog]

93. That last line is very to the point.

Good work, Roland.

[Hugin]

77. Imagine that... Even with the Bait and Switch they have going on Sony LCDs.

B & S only works if there's a hungry fish around.

[ozymandius]

16. Intel Warns of Dismal Fourth Quarter

After the end of the third quarter, one tech titan after another bemoaned a "lack of visibility" into the yearend period. As the U.S. financial crisis worsened in September, it was apparent the rest of the year would be rough, but most companies could scarcely tell how bad things would get.

The industry is getting all too clear a picture now. The most recent indication came Nov. 12, when Intel (INTC) slashed its fourth-quarter sales forecast, citing "significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments." Intel said it now expects sales of $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion, down from a prior forecast of $10.1 billion to $10.9 billion.

.....

Intel stock dove in extended trading, falling almost 7% to 12.60, after the news was announced. Stock in rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also slipped in extended trading. PC makers including Dell (DELL), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), and Apple (AAPL) also dropped in after-hours trading, an indication tech stocks may be in for a rough ride Nov. 13. "If Intel isn't a bellwether, I don't know who is," says Ashok Kumar, an analyst at Collins Stewart. "A drop in guidance this big is an ominous sign both for the tech sector and the wider economy."

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2008/tc20081112_621268.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

58. I think that without price cuts by Intel...

That AMD is in a good position to eat Intel's lunch. Again.

AMD is getting it's act together with its multi-core processors. Their performance, especially when paired with their chipsets, is getting close to the numbers found in Intel processors, which makes sense, because AMD has always been engineered as a total system solution, as opposed to a bunch of parts. I recently specced out two machines, both QuadCores, and the AMD-based one was well under the costs of the Intel of similar performance.

Move these natural benefits and lower costs into server space, and if I were Intel, I'd be concerned.

[Ghost Dog]

17. I was thinking about the strong Yen,

carry-trade unwinding/unwound.

While this makes Japanese products priced in Yen expensive to export markets for Japan, particularly for the West (which is what we tend to most focus on here), I think it's worth thinking about this other, Asia-Pacific if you like, frame:

As long as Japan and China can maintain a healthy social/cultural and therefore political relationship, the strong Yen makes Japanese investment in Chinese production even more interesting to them. Japanese business can invest in China, manufacture and produce there at lower cost, and then sell not only in China and other World markets, but also back to Japan at reasonable prices for Japanese people with their strong currency and savings.

China benefits from such a stimulus to their whole economy (and one can only imagine the possible technological consequences of Chinese-Japanese brainstorming). Japan too with the one sole proviso: What about jobs for Japanese in Japan?

I think that clearly, to an increasing degree (with Japan's ageing population and social culture in general), more Japanese people will specialise in socially-oriented as well as 'intellectual' work, and, in general, work that can only be or should be for other reasons performed locally, at home.

Any thoughts?

[ozymandius]

21. Japan has a reputation for being very economically insular.

So to assert that Japan will focus more on Asian markets for its goods makes sense in the short term. The caveat that leaves me guessing about the likelihood of this scenario rests with the time frame. Japan does not have a reputation for rapid short-term adjustments to its manufacturing, marketing and distribution strategies. This is a nation of long-term thinkers.

I am not saying that events you have described will not happen. They will if Japan sees this new relationship with its neighbors aligned with its lengthily projected economic goals. Turns out that a projected plan has arrived.

Concerning jobs for Japan: ACFTA has just been signed with a full implementation date set for 2010. How this will impact Japanese jobs is uncertain. I will wager that Japan has completed its due diligence (unlike the United States in NAFTA) to protect its manufacturing base while calming traditional political and territorial frictions with China.

edited for a touch of clarity

[Ghost Dog]

35. Yes, agree there, the 'just-in-time' supply-chain invention notwithstanding...

I will continue mulling it over over lunch (heading out now).

(Isn't the concept and the term "due diligence" excellent, so deep and wide-ranging, I remember thinking when it first came into vogue)...

[ozymandius]

18. Is the Switch of the TARP Away From Troubled Assets Going to Create More Hedge Fund Forced Sales?

The markets in the US did not take at all well to Henry Paulson's announcement that he wanted to get his hands on the rest of the TARP allotment (a remaining $350 billion) and spend it so as to help consumers go to the mall again. As one correspondend, Andrew, noted:

1) Is the dog-chasing-its-tail nature of using taxpayer money to buy securities backed by taxpayer (consumer) debt not immediately and effortlessly obvious? It took almost no imagination for me to realize how absurd and self-defeating that is.

2) Do you think that Paulson and his cadre are completely aware of how absurd it is, and laughed and slapped each other five when they came up with it? Or are they incredibly dense?

Needless to say, the nasty selloff in Asia overnight says they are not very impressed with this move either.

As we have noted before, intervening in a tightly-coupled system like a nuclear reactor or our financial system, as Richard Bookstaber said, often makes matters worse (the system is so tightly integrated that any move will create diffcult to predict and often destabilizing knock-on effects. We have discussed these unintended consequences in the past.

One is that, particularly with stock prices low and trading in equity and other markets thin, forced selling by hedge funds is even more disruptive than at normal times. And with hedge funds deleveraging for a whole bunch of reasons (margin calls, investor redemptions, tougher standards at prime brokers), distress in one market leads to margin calls, which can lead hedge funds to sell not the asset subject to the margin call (if that market is tanking, you will get a terrible price and would make any similar positions worse) but one that is less impaired, which could be in a completely different market.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/is-switch-of-tarp-away-from-troubled.html

[Roland99]

36. I have full trust and confidence in Sec. Paulson.

:spray:

:rofl:

[Tansy_Gold]

56. "forced selling" ?????????????????????

Okay, answer me this.

The hedge funds, which are unregulated, right? might be "forced" to sell stocks (or whatever it is they sell/buy/trade) that are essentially worthless. Or that at least have taken a real beating in price. But shouldn't someone be looking at the reasons WHY those prices have taken a beating? Is it possibly because those securities were ourageously over-valued in the first place?

Second, if the hedge funds are allowed/enabled to hang onto their "assets" a while longer, will that improve the essential value of those assets?

Suppose I have a bundle of subprime mortgage backed securities. They were worth $1M two years ago because the housing market was still going strong. Now with mortgage defaults and foreclosures and falling RE prices, my $1M bundle is worth $250K theoretically, but there's no cash available for anyone to buy it and those who are thinking of maybe buying it are also hanging onto their cash in case the price drops further.

So if I'm forced to sell and manage to get only $200K for it, isn't that what it's really worth? And wasn't I already living high on the hog for years and years?

I just don't get it. I just don't get why more people aren't outraged over what's going on. Of course, I suppose a lot of them simply don't know because the usual media suspects aren't telling them and/or they're just too scared to face the truth.

Unfortunately, the truth has a nasty way of showing up anyway and forcing you to face it whether you want to or not. Doesn't it?


Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

61. That's kinda the whole thing behind mark-to-market. No one wants to do that because it will...

reduce greatly the value of the assets on the books.

They've been hoping to skirt the problem long enough for the housing market to rebound and then all would be hunky dory.

They missed it by *that much*.

[ozymandius]

64. We can talk ourselves into almost anything, Tansy Gold.

Is it possibly because those securities were ourageously over-valued in the first place?
Yes, some are outrageously overpriced. The delusion implanted the idea that these values would eventually be justified. It worked for Amazon, so why not everything else? Discounting this notion, then the assets could be sold to the next sucker in line who believes the same with the default in place to find another buyer for under-performing assets. Such is the way of short selling stocks.

Second, if the hedge funds are allowed/enabled to hang onto their "assets" a while longer, will that improve the essential value of those assets?
Only if idea #1 above holds true.

And, yes, hedge funds are unregulated.

[Tansy_Gold]

67. Well, then that essentially means . . . . .

there is no easy solution, right?

And the "difficult" solution is to tighten our belts in really really dramatic and painful fashion (all puns intended) until we earn (ha ha ha ha ha) enough to pay off the monstrous debt.

The "we" is problematic, as is the "earn," but I think the point is made????




Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

70. Right.

Everything we thought to symbolize prosperity since 1995 was illusory. It started in the '70s with Milton Friedman and his followers. This psychology/philosophy was a kneejerk reaction against the solid arguments to the contrary made by Keynes through his book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936). I look to page 159, top paragraph:

Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development if country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.

So we as a nation with tendencies toward aggressive global contagion, in recent years, have taken sound advice and stood it on its head. Advice dating from 1936.

It will take a long time to dig our way out of this. I am humbled and a bit horrified that the last time we stood this close to the precipice, we were energy self-sufficient and manufactured most of our consumer goods.

[ozymandius]

92. Dang! A careless error.

When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.

Mea culpa.

[Ghost Dog]

95. Third time I've seen that quote recently, Ozy,

and, apart from here and keeping my ear to the ground generally, I'm, you know, in no way professionally involved...

In fact, I posted it here myself, quoting, I think, that chap in the Telegraph, just the other day. Very well said, and I'm glad to see you're (like many) re-reading JMK. Haven't read him myself. :( There are just sooo many books, interests, on a list...

Why this thread is so valuable. I think UpInArms is maintaining an archive, right UiA?

History in the making, here and now, my friends.

[ozymandius]

103. Maybe, just maybe, this time around we can bury this jibberish

spouted by Greenscam, Rubin and all those loathsome supply-sider types.

I keep Keynes and Galbraith within easy reach on my desk. I do need to acquire E.F. Schumacher's Small Is Beautiful. Each is a compliment to the other and an antidote to Friedman's poison.

[Ghost Dog]

128. I'm mostly reading

"God's Crucible: Islam and the Making of Europe, 570 to 1215" by David Levering Lewis, W. W. Norton, New York - London, 2008, ISBN 978-0-393-06472-8 (hbk.) at the moment.

Well researched and nicely written, I find. Helps me get some perspective.

In the first flowering/consolidation of al-Andalus under 'Abd al-Rahman I and his first successors, the emirate in Córdoba and the Abassid caliphate in Damascus, politically at odds, there was nevertheless, throughout the Islamic world, free trade all the way from the frontiers of China to the Atlantic. Free trade, in spite of murderous political differences. Prices, however, in each local jurisdiction, in the local markets of each place, were strictly controlled by each 'regional' ruler or government. Multicultural, multiple religions. Relative tolerance. Vital slave-trade, mostly Jewish-run, apparently. Silver currencies...

While even Charlemagne's Franks, Lombards etc. to the north were running a pre-feudal horse-and-sword-based barter 'economy'...

Makes you think.

ed. to add: (Far from 'perfect', of course. But trying. You're a slave? Convert to Islam and you're free).

[Demeter]

197. I've Been Reading Thomas Paine's "Common Sense"

Not only a classic for its time, but especially poignant for today. Talks about all the issues we address here, with perspective all the way back to Athens and Sparta.

It's a small pamphlet, but so meaty (as well as disturbing and illuminating) that I cannot speed-read it.


Paine talks a lot about corporate colonization, banks and their abusive practices, debt and sound money, and in a very readable style.

There's an encyclopedia reduced to roughly 69 pages!

[Ghost Dog]

206. Thankyou Demeter. Here:

http://www.earlyamerica.com/earlyamerica/milestones/commonsense/text.html

Will very soon closely read it all.

... The laying a country desolate with fire and sword, declaring war against the natural rights of all mankind, and extirpating the defenders thereof from the face of the earth, is the concern of every man to whom nature hath given the power of feeling; of which class, regardless of party censure, is

THE AUTHOR.

Philadelphia, Feb. 14, 1776.

[UpInArms]

39. TARP and Fed facilities unravel: John Kemp

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLD69089920081113

Developments over the last week suggest the U.S rescue programme has fallen into just this trap and is now rapidly unravelling.

The twin pillars of the rescue programme are the multiplicity of liquidity and lending programmes being offered by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Both programmes are now in deep trouble. In fact the various rescue packages risk becoming a textbook example of how poorly designed programmes can fail to achieve their objectives.

LIQUIDITY EVERYWHERE BUT MAIN STREET

The Fed has grown its balance sheet from $884 billion to $2.055 trillion in the space of two months and extended almost $1 trillion in additional support to the banking system through the various emergency lending programmes enacted or expanded over the last year.

But precious little of this additional liquidity is finding its way through to households and corporate borrowers. In fact, most of it is now sloshing around the banking system like so much excess ballast. Banks have increased their reserve holdings on deposit with the Fed from $8 billion to $494 billion. This is $488 billion more than the Fed estimates they would ordinarily need to hold for payment clearing and prudential purposes.

Increased reserve holdings have absorbed perhaps half of the liquidity placed into the banking system from the Fed. Much of the rest has almost certainly been invested into the mountain of Treasury bills the U.S Treasury has been issuing. Only a very small proportion is left for re-lending to the real economy.

It is much safer for the banks to lend surplus funds to the Fed and the Treasury than lend to one another let alone to households and corporations. There is no credit risk. Nor is there any liquidity risk because reserve balances can be accessed on demand, and the Treasury bills have short maturities and can be readily re-discounted.

The Fed has made these perverse incentives worse by agreeing to start paying interest on excess reserves. Previously, the lack of interest payments gave banks an incentive to minimise reserve balances. But now reserves pay interest the net cost is low.

[DemReadingDU]

50. more...THE $700 BILLION TARP SLUSH FUND

good article, here's more

THE $700 BILLION TARP SLUSH FUND

TARP is beset by even bigger problems. Recall the $700 billion fund was originally created to provide a buyer of last resort for mortgage-backed securities and other assets that had become illiquid and were allegedly trading only at firesale values, if at all, that did not reflect their fundamental underlying worth. TARP was supposed to aid price discovery and deal with a crisis of liquidity.

But the TARP provided the Treasury secretary with almost unlimited authority over how to use the money, subject only to an oversight board composed mostly of executive branch officials and powers for Congress to invoke the "nuclear option" and disapprove further funding beyond an initial $350 billion.

The fund has quickly mutated. The Treasury used $125 billion for capital injections into nine large national banks, some of whom claimed they did not want or need it. Another $125 billion is being made available for capital injections smaller regional and community banks. Some $40 billion is now being used to support AIG. The Treasury now has just $60 billion of TARP authority before it must risk returning to Congress.

PROGRAMME CREEP

Yesterday, the Treasury admitted it now has no plans to begin buying troubled assets, gutting the programme's original purpose completely.

Congress came under intense pressure to approve TARP with the promise that asset purchases could begin within a matter of days of the president signing the bill. Legislators show increasing signs of restiveness that TARP has transmuted into a giant $700 discretionary fund outside the regular appropriation process.

more...
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USLD69089920081113

[Roland99]

51. Why Intervention Persists - Ludwig von Mises

http://mises.org/story/1773

With a few exceptions contemporary commentators on economic problems are advocating economic intervention. This unanimity does not necessarily mean that they approve of interventionistic measures by government or other coer­cive powers. Authors of economics books, essays, articles, and political platforms demand interventionistic measures before they are taken, but once they have been imposed no one likes them. Then everyone—usually even the authori­ties responsible for them—call them insufficient and unsat­isfactory. Generally the demand then arises for the replace­ment of unsatisfactory interventions by other, more suitable measures. And once the new demands have been met, the same scenario begins all over again. The universal desire for the interventionist system is matched by the rejection of all concrete measures of the interventionist policy.

Sometimes, during discussion of a partial or complete re­peal of a regulation, there are voices against changing it, but they rarely approve the given measure; they wish to prevent even worse measures. For instance, scarcely ever have live­stock farmers been pleased with the tariffs and veterinary regulations that were adopted in order to restrict the impor­tation of livestock, meats, and fats from abroad. But as soon as consumers demand the repeal or relaxation of these re­strictions, the farmers rise in their defense. The champions of legislative labor protection have labeled every regulation adopted so far as unsatisfactory—at best to be accepted as an installment on what needs to be done. But if one such regulation faces repeal—for instance, the legal limitation of the workday to eight hours—they rise in its defense.

This attitude toward specific interventions is readily un­derstood by anyone who recognizes that intervention neces­sarily is illogical and unsuitable, as it can never attain what its champions and authors hope to attain. It is remarkable, however, that it is obstinately defended in spite of its short­comings, and in spite of the failure of all attempts at demon­strating its theoretical logic. To most observers, the thought of returning to classical liberal policies appears so absurd that they rarely bother to give it thought.

Not written in the last few years. Nope.

Written in 1929.

Amazing how it still holds true today, eh?

[DemReadingDU]

23. ResCap Debt Sinks on Scrapped Plan to Buy Bad Assets

11/12/08
Residential Capital LLC's bonds lost almost half their value today after the U.S. Treasury scrapped plans to buy toxic mortgage assets and Fitch Ratings said parent GMAC LLC may stop propping up the home lender.

ResCap's $1.2 billion of 6.375 percent notes due in June 2010 tumbled 9.5 cents on the dollar, or 48 percent, to 10.5 cents at 4 p.m. New York time, according to Trace, the bond- price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The debt yields 243 percent.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said today that the second half of the $700 billion financial rescue will be used to ease pressure on consumer credit, shifting from buying mortgage assets. Fitch said yesterday that a ResCap failure wouldn't have ``direct or immediate implications'' for Detroit-based GMAC because the entities are separate. GMAC is the largest lender to General Motors Corp. car dealers.

``GMAC's ability and willingness to continue to provide support is nearing an end,'' Fitch said yesterday in downgrading GMAC's debt. Fitch rates GMAC CCC and Minneapolis-based ResCap is rated D.

ResCap recorded its eighth straight deficit in the third quarter, losing $1.9 billion and accounting for most of GMAC's $2.5 billion loss. In the report last week, GMAC said ResCap may not survive. Loans no longer collecting interest jumped to 22 percent of related receivables from 13 percent a year earlier.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeSSLWO.dNx0&refer=home

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

28. RBOB is down to 1.23/gal on the NYMEX.

HO is 1.80/gal.

Crude is 55.4

Prediction: RBOB below 1.00 by the inauguration. You heard it here first.

[DemReadingDU]

29. Lobbyists swarm the U.S. Treasury for a helping of bailout pie

11/12/08
When the U.S. government said it would spend $700 billion to rescue the American financial industry, it seemed to be an ocean of money. But after one of the biggest lobbying free-for-alls in memory, it suddenly looks like a dwindling pool.

Many new supplicants are lining up for an infusion of capital as billions of dollars are channeled to other beneficiaries like the American International Group, and possibly soon American Express.

Of the initial $350 billion that Congress freed up, out of the $700 billion in bailout money contained in the law that passed last month, the Treasury Department has committed all but $60 billion. The shrinking pie — and the growing uncertainty over who qualifies — has thrown Washington's legal and lobbying establishment into a mad scramble.

The Treasury Department is under siege by an army of hired guns for banks, savings and loan associations and insurers — as well as for improbable candidates like a Hispanic business group representing plumbing and home-heating specialists. That last group wants the Treasury to hire its members as contractors to take care of houses that the government may end up owning through buying distressed mortgages.

The lobbying frenzy worries many traditional bankers — the original targets of the rescue program — who fear that it could blur, or even undermine, the government's effort to stabilize the financial system after its worst crisis since the 1930s.

more...
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/12/business/12lobbying.php

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

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This week is our fourth quarter 2008 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
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[ozymandius]

49. Good luck Grovelbot.

As always, good luck.

[DemReadingDU]

34. Bailout Lacks Oversight Despite Billions Pledged

11/13/08
In the six weeks since lawmakers approved the Treasury's massive bailout of financial firms, the government has poured money into the country's largest banks, recruited smaller banks into the program and repeatedly widened its scope to cover yet other types of businesses, from insurers to consumer lenders.

Along the way, the Bush administration has committed $290 billion of the $700 billion rescue package.

Yet for all this activity, no formal action has been taken to fill the independent oversight posts established by Congress when it approved the bailout to prevent corruption and government waste. Nor has the first monitoring report required by lawmakers been completed, though the initial deadline has passed.

"It's a mess," said Eric M. Thorson, the Treasury Department's inspector general, who has been working to oversee the bailout program until the newly created position of special inspector general is filled. "I don't think anyone understands right now how we're going to do proper oversight of this thing."

more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/12/AR2008111202846.html?hpid=topnews

[UpInArms]

37. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.392 Change -0.356 (-0.46%)

Dollar Finds Firm Footing In Risk Aversion, Relative Rate Forecasts

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar_Finds_Firm_Footing_In_1226535242687.html



The Economy And The Credit Market



After such an aggressive rally over the past three months, it is growing increasingly difficult for the US dollar to sustain its climb. Nonetheless, should the benchmark currency’s safe haven status gives way, there may still be strength to be had in interest rate expectations. This may seem counter-intuitive considering Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 90 percent probability that the December 16th meeting will end in another 50 basis point rate cut (and 10 percent that it will be 75bps) which would take the benchmark lending rate to its lowest level in over three decades. However, currencies move on relative speculation. While the FOMC may lower rates to levels plunged only by the BoJ in the last decade, there is no room for further cuts from there (whereas other central banks can still cut dramatically). What’s more, this aggressive policy puts the US well ahead of the financial crisis / recession curve.

...more...

Euro, Pound Whipsaw After German GDP Figures Signal Recession

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro__Pound_Whipsaw_After_German_1226573861741.html

The Euro would drop to as low as 1.2388 after the German GDP report showed that Europe’s largest economy had contracted 0.5% in the third quarter. The decline in growth followed a revised 0.4% in the second quarter verifying that the economy is in its worst recession in 12 years. The Euro’s slide was temporary as German corporate buying would send the single currency back above 1.2530 before finding resistance.

The ECB would follow the dour German growth report with a bleak monthly statement in which the MPC lowered its growth and inflation estimates increasing speculation that they will cut rates at their December 6th meeting. The growth estimate for 2009 was lowered to 0.3% from 1.3%, while the long-term inflation expectations are calling for prices to drop bellow the council’s 2% target. Indeed, French and Italian consumer prices eased in October by 0.11% and 0.6% respectively, validating the estimates. Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in 106 bps of cuts from the central bank over the next twelve months, which could lead to the Euro trading heavy throughout the remainder of the year.

The British pound saw similar price action to the Euro following the German GDP figures, dropping to as 77 month low of 1.4806. The Sterling would also bounce from support ending a 600 pip decline from yesterday. The freefall which started with the BoE’s dour quarterly inflation report where the MPC considerable lowered interest rate expectations and left the door open for a possible (ZIRP) zero interest rate policy. If the central bank continues to cut rates aggressively the Pound could sink below 1.3000 in early 2009.

The upcoming U.S. trade balance report is expected to show a narrowing of the deficit on the back of declining oil prices. Although the anticipated -$57.0 billion deficit would be the smallest in six months, the positive fundamental data doesn’t figure to have an impact on the dollar as risk winds continue to dominate its direction. Asian and European stocks continued the slide that started yesterday in the U.S. following Hank Paulson’s announcement that the focus of the TARP would change from buying toxic assets from banks balance sheets to relieving pressures in consumer credit in areas like credit card debt, auto loans and student loans. If the uncertainty of the impact of the new focus of the TARP continues to trouble investors then the dollar may continue to benefit from safe haven flows.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Commentary: Current conditions have that 1929 feel

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Wall-Streets-1929-vibe/story.aspx?guid=%7BEDF312AC%2D885E%2D4872%2D9786%2D28481463DCF0%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- John Kenneth Galbraith called it the "nature of mass illusion."

The late economist, interviewed in a revival of the PBS documentary on the 1929 crash, was talking about the speculation in the markets in the 1920s, but he could as easily have been talking about the last three to four years on Wall Street -- an era people will look back on, observe our naiveté and chuckle.

After all, isn't that how we viewed those suckers of the 1920s?

Back then, the great investors of the day were people like General Motors Corp. (GM) founder William Durant, National City Bank's Charles Mitchell and Michael Meehan. They were revered in the same way Wall Street idolizes Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) Warren Buffett, financier George Soros, Legg Mason's (LM) Bill Miller and Blackstone Group LP's (BX) Stephen Schwartzman.

Like the investing elite of 1929, today's celebrity investors are taking a beating. It's no wonder some of them, such as Buffett, have been urging investors to buy U.S. stocks because they look cheap. Stocks looked cheap on Oct. 25, 1929, as well, after banks led by J.P. Morgan & Co. (JPM) tried to stem the tide by buying.

By the way, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down 7.7% through Wednesday and the S&P 500 (SPX:) is down 10% since Buffett's recommendation.

If people weren't losing their shirts, the desperation and mistakes being made in the markets today might be funny. We've become immune to shocking events, now that the government is buying up retail banks, two investment banks have failed, the stock market is down 40% from its high and companies in virtually every U.S. industry are openly asking the government to lend them money.

We've just had a week that must compare to what those investors went through back in the weeks following -- or leading up to -- the crash of 1929. It's not just that the $700 billion bailout is running out of money, or that American International Group Inc. (AIG), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are burning through government cash; it's the upheaval on Wall Street that continues unabated. The financial-services industry is being wiped clean of executives, watching its business shrink and making critical mistakes.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

43. I don't see how this game can continue much longer

though I feel they are trying to stretch it out until after Obama takes office. They want people to think that Obama caused the crash.

[Roland99]

52. see my post #51, too.

Just more exposing of the circular reasoning of the circle jerks running the show

[Ghost Dog]

108. That's a good one, UiA, coming from that source...

Cool.

[UpInArms]

44. UBS's shares down after U.S. indicts top banker

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AC35920081113

ZURICH (Reuters) - Shares in UBS slipped on Thursday after U.S. authorities charged the Swiss bank's wealth management chief with conspiring to help wealthy Americans to hide $20 billion from the taxman.

The indictment on Wednesday of board member Raoul Weil, which comes barely a month after the Swiss state rushed to shore up UBS in the subprime crisis, is part of a wide-ranging probe by the U.S. into whether UBS helped its citizens evade tax which has also posed a threat to Switzerland's treasured banking secrecy.

UBS shares were down 1.8 percent at 15.56 Swiss francs at 4:29 a.m. EST, when the DJ Stoxx European banks sector index was up 0.3 percent. Analysts said the U.S. business is relatively small beer for the Swiss bank's wealth managment business and local media did not give the news wide play.

In comparison domestic rival Credit Suisse's shares were down 2.8 percent at 31 francs amid expectations of another difficult quarter after the bank posted a large loss in the third quarter.

"Considering that UBS's cross-border business (in the United States), which is now under investigation, only pertained to $20 billion or 2 percent of the private banking assets, the direct implication on earnings is not big," Dirk Becker, an analyst with Kepler Equities said in a research note.

...more...

I was hoping it would be wormboy Gramm :(

[Dr.Phool]

45. Over a half-million initial jobless claims.

516,000.

[ozymandius]

54. Unreal.

Just unreal - these numbers of people who used to be employed. And yet more come of age to enter the workforce every day.

[ozymandius]

55. How 'bout a smattering of applause over widespread suffering:

S&P 500 -0.50 853.00 11/13 8:46am

NASDAQ -10.25 1153.25 11/13 8:45am

Dow Jones +7.00 8287.00 11/13 8:41am

[UpInArms]

60. oooohhhh -- ahhhhhhh! Just think of the cost SAVINGS to the CORPORATIONS!!!

:puke:

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

59. Oh, one more thing:

If any of you are thinking of computer upgrades, especially DRAM(DDR2-3), DO IT NOW. Seems like the DDR manufacturers are gonna be cutting production pretty meaningfully to force DRAM prices up in Q1-2 09. This will likely start dragging other prices in the industry up as well, in a monkey-see, monkey-do fashion.

So, if you were thinking of upgrading, do not delay.

And save money and build your own computer. It's cheaper, easier and fun.

[UpInArms]

62. Hurrah! Dow opens up 100+ - Siss Boom Bah! No Jobs for YOU!

Dow 8,384.61 101.95 (1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,510.83 11.62 (0.78%)
S&P 500 862.56 10.26 (1.20%)
10-Yr Bond 3.733% 0.068

NYSE Volume 100,460,359.375
Nasdaq Volume 50,743,351.562

[Roland99]

63. Happens every time the jobs numbers are very bleak. More rate cuts? Deflation?

Hurrah!!

[Roland99]

68. 9:58am - As Bill Murray said in Stripes: "And then...depression set in"

DJIA 8,230.97 -51.69 -0.62%
Nasdaq 1,479.34 -19.87 -1.33%
S&P 500 848.40 -3.90 -0.46%
Global Dow 1,408.65 -22.62 -1.58%
Dow Util 358.76 +5.10 +1.44%
NYSE 5,306.47 -14.23 -0.27%
AMEX 1,296.48 -8.01 -0.61%
Russell 2000 448.22 -4.58 -1.01%
Semcond 716.00 -2.30 -0.32%
30-Year Bond 4.21% +0.02 +0.53%
10-Year Bond 3.76% +0.09 +2.54%

[UpInArms]

69. FirstMerit gets preliminary nod for Treasury funding

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG38882620081113

Nov 13 (Reuters) - Bank holding company FirstMerit Corp (FMER.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said it had received a preliminary approval for $248 million funding under the U.S. Treasury's capital purchase program, but was still considering whether to accept it.

Speaking at the Sandler O'Neill conference, FirstMerit's chief executive, Paul Greig, said taking the capital would primarily help as "an insurance policy against unforeseen severe downturn in the economy."

The second advantage would be the ability to do a merger and acquisition transaction.

"Candidly, those two reasons are a bit of a conflict because if you do a deal, you are not going to have the excess capital to withstand a severe downturn in the economy," he added.

Potential restrictions on dividend and executive compensation were the disadvantages, as restrictions on executive compensation would give the company potentially a problem in retaining and attracting talent in the future, Greig said.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

71. It would be a shame to see all that incompetent financial talent leave.

It would be enough to make them want to flip burgers, deliver pizzas, and work as Mall-Wart greeters.

Go ahead. Get offended and throw a temper tantrum over your over-inflated self-worth. I dare you.

I remember when my old parent company (LTV Steal) filed bankruptcy, and they had to pay all the same people who screwed the pooch, all kinds of retention bonuses, and big raises just to keep them, so they could finish off the company.

[ozymandius]

75. Sounds like getting paid to decorate your own prison cell.

Is this the operation that went idle in Cleveland in 2001?

[Dr.Phool]

82. Yep.

A year earlier they had $800 million in cash. The CEO left with his $60k per month pension, they hired another guy who stuck a billion dollars in a dry hole in Alaska, bankrupting Diamond Shamrock. He collected $1million+ to take the heat when they ran LTV Steal into the ground.

wilbur Ross, rode to the rescue, with no legacy costs, turned a profit for 2 quarters and sold it to Mittal.

Right now, they've shut down all iron production in Cleveland, and who knows what the hell is going to happen. I used to be on the Railroad Division's union bargaining team. And from what I can see now, they've got a completely untenable contract as far as covering lay-offs and seniority. I can't even figure out how they're going to make this work.

Glad I'm outa there.

[ozymandius]

89. Heh. First thought was LTV "Steal" could be a typo.

Now I see what you mean. It's amazing how much one person can screw things up.

[Dr.Phool]

The spelling was intentional.

When they first bought the old Republic Steel (a well run company), we refered to them as Lyin' Texas Varmints, or Liquidate, Terminate and Vacate.

[ozymandius]

107. I kinda figured.

This sounds like the same team that destroyed the Goldkist co-op for which a friend of mine was a chicken farmer. The co-op was an operation true to its name. They had profit sharing, fair prices for each producer's product, longevity among employees. Then some snake oil outfit arrived and convinced everyone that they would get rich quickly if the co-op were dismantled and restructured as a corporation with, of course, the snake oil salesmen in charge. The new board of directors gave the CEO a massive salary. Profits, once shared, disappeared and, in lieu, farmers received paltry compensation. After three years of this misery Goldkist was dead. The board and CEO bailed on the business they ruined with loads of cash provided from the "contingency" clauses in their contracts.

[Ghost Dog]

142. I bet you didn't hear this one:

Back in the (more or less still) good ol' UK 'seventies days (relatively) - I had a degree in environmental sciences, refused to work for oil companies or government, for example, who offered me the only work available for such as me, lying about how wonderfully environmentally clean and healthy they were back then, I dropped out, went, like, 'euro-hippie'. I eventually went back to university to get a Masters degree in computer sciences. Trouble was, there was no grant available (we'd been used to take grants for granted up 'til then, you see). But, no problem. Drawing the "dole", and a little "private enterprise" "on the side" was just about enough to cover living costs and fees, and some fun.

We were young.

So, the UK Govt. dept. responsible for social security back then (there weren't many on the dole back then - the really needy, mostly, (seriously poor, old, sick, fresh immigrants... Later there was suddenly a flood of putative 'middle class' (eighties) and a few scammers like me)) was called the "Department of Health and Social Security". We used to call it the "Department of Stealth and Total Obscurity". And it was. And it got much worse since...

Since then, I've paid back. Several times over. It worked, for me and for many, just when you needed it.

[Ghost Dog]

213. Their front offices used to be "open plan", for example;

now they're, like, fortresses, behind barricades...

[antigop]

76. Denninger renames TARP to TURD -- Taxpayer Universal Raping Device

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Are you really "Change We Can Believe In"?

Are you really "Yes We Can"?

If so, here are the acts you must undertake as soon as you are sworn in, and you should announce them tomorrow so the market will stop tanking due to the lies of Mr. Paulson and Bernanke:

It shall hereafter be known on The Market Ticker as the T.U.R.D.

Taxpayer Universal Raping Device

We The People have just one question for you Mr. Obama:

Are you going to attempt to polish it or flush it?

[Roland99]

87. 11:21am - Back into the red

DJIA 8,212.89 -69.77 -0.84%
Nasdaq 1,478.57 -20.64 -1.38%
S&P 500 847.77 -4.53 -0.53%
Global Dow 1,406.60 -24.67 -1.72%
Dow Util 358.06 +4.40 +1.24%
NYSE 5,310.69 -10.01 -0.19%
AMEX 1,294.43 -10.06 -0.77%
Russell 2000 450.65 -2.15 -0.47%
Semcond 719.50 +1.20 +0.17%
30-Year Bond 4.22% +0.03 +0.79%
10-Year Bond 3.75% +0.08 +2.21%

[Joanne98]

94. Bank hearings on c-span 1.. Hedge fund hearings on c-span 3

November 13, 2008, 11:57 am

Hedge Funds on the Hill: Key Statements from the Congressional Hearings

Posted by Heidi N. Moore

Hedge funds and Washington don’t mix. And yet, mix they must today, as the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform has called an all-star cast of hedge fund managers to testify on Capitol Hill. The appointed hedgies include George Soros; Paulson & Co. founder John Paulson (no relation, of course, to Hank); Citadel CEO Ken Griffin; Renaissance Technologies CEO James Simons; and Harbinger Capital Partners senior managing director Phil Falcone.

Deal Journal obtained some of the prepared statements from the hedgies and excerpted them below.

John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
Performance in a nutshell: By constructing a diverse portfolio of both long and short positions, we have been able to operate profitably in 14 out of the last 15 years, including this year and the 2000-2002 periods when the NASDAQ index lost 78% of its value. We believe that our ability to protect our investors’ capital and generate positive absolute returns with low volatility over the long term is the reason we have grown to be one of the largest hedge funds in the world.

How Paulson gets paid: We share profits with our investors on an 80/20 basis where 80% of the profits go to the investors and 20% remains with us. We only earn performance allocations if our investors are profitable. All of our funds have a “high water mark,” which means that if we lose money for our investors, we have to earn it back before we share in future profits. Some of
our funds also have a “claw back” provision, requiring us to return profits earned in prior periods
if we lose money in subsequent periods. In addition, we invest our own money alongside that of
our clients, so we share investment losses along with gains.

Don’t lump all investors together: Hedge funds, together with real estate, private equity and venture capital, are frequently categorized as “alternative investments”, in contrast to traditional stock and bond investing. Hedge funds are an important investment category for investors as returns are generally noncorrelated with the traditional market. The hedge fund market has grown rapidly over the past five years, from approximately $800 million to $2 trillion in assets under management. The US has remained a leader in this area, accounting for approximately 70% of the market, although we have lost share in recent years to London, Asia, and Switzerland – many of which offer various financial incentives to attract the hedge fund industry.

Cue the Star-Spangled Banner: As Americans, we are proud of the leadership position the United States occupies in this industry, the jobs our industry has created, the export earnings we have produced for our country and the taxes we generate for the Treasury. For example, over the last five years, our firm has increased our employee count by 10x, creating numerous high-paying jobs for Americans. In addition, eighty percent of our assets under management come from foreign investors. The revenues we receive from foreign investors allow us to contribute to the U.S. economy like an exporter of goods, bringing in money from abroad.

What next: We have also offered some public suggestions on the causes of the credit crisis and what the U.S. government can do to help the situation, specifically purchase senior preferred stock in selected financial institutions….Subsequently, the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) was reoriented to focus on the purchase of preferred stock.

(You can read Paulson’s entire statement here.)

James Simons, Renaissance Technologies
Who to blame: In my view, the crisis has many causes: The regulators who took a hands-off position on investment bank leverage and credit default swaps; everyone along the mortgage-backed securities chain who should have blown a whistle rather than passing the problem on; and, in my opinion the most culpable, the rating agencies, which allowed sows’ ears to be sold as silk purses.

Before addressing the Committee’s questions, a few words about myself and my company.

Do hedge funds cause systemic risk?: In my view, hedge funds were not a
major contributor to the recent crisis. Generally, hedge funds have increased liquidity and reduced volatility in the markets. Moreover, because of their remarkably diverse strategies, hedge funds, as a class, are unlikely to create systemic risk. Hedge funds do use leverage, but each hedge fund’s leverage is stringently controlled by its lenders – far more so than is true for investment banks.

Do hedge funds require further regulation?: I do think additional regulation focused on *market integrity and stability* would be useful.

Should hedge funds be more transparent?: Transparency to appropriate regulators can be helpful. You may wish to consider requiring all market participants to report their positions to an appropriate regulator and then allowing the New York Fed to have access to aggregate position information and to recommend action if necessary. I stress, however, that the fund-specific information should never be released publicly, which could do far more harm than good.

How do we get out of this hole?: In the near term, the most important thing we can do is to keep people in their homes, even if their mortgages are in default.

For the longer term, I propose a new ratings entity…. I therefore encourage the major holders of these bonds, such as CalPERS, TIAA and PIMCO, to sponsor a new, non-profit rating agency, focused on derivative securities. Congress might consider chartering such an organization, having Board representation from appropriate regulators. Revenues could come from buyer-paid fees. These complex instruments then would be subject to proper analysis and rating, the interests of buyers and raters would be aligned, and the likelihood of again seeing a problem like this one would be dramatically reduced.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/11/13/hedge-funds-on-the-hill-key-statements-from-the-congressional-hearings/

[Roland99]

97. 1:00pm - Going to bust under 8,000????

DJIA 8,007.31 -275.35 -3.32%
Nasdaq 1,432.92 -66.29 -4.42%
S&P 500 823.11 -29.19 -3.42%
Global Dow 1,394.33 -36.94 -2.58%
Dow Util 350.10 -3.56 -1.01%
NYSE 5,159.19 -161.51 -3.04%
AMEX 1,259.81 -44.68 -3.43%
Russell 2000 434.43 -18.37 -4.06%
Semcond 704.50 -13.80 -1.92%
30-Year Bond 4.22% +0.03 +0.64%
10-Year Bond 3.71% +0.05 +1.28%

[spinbaby]

98. I do believe we may close under 8000

I'm beginning to look for a place to get back in, but I don't think 8000 is it.

[Demeter]

198. Must Be All That Programmed Buy Subroutine Was Triggered by Tripping 8000

I can't think that programmed buying does anything for anyone except elevating commissions through churning.....

[uppityperson]

99. 7,969.32 -313.34 / -3.78% and back up

wild

[Ghost Dog]

163. wild. yup. n/t

(will I actually get to reach the bottom of this thread, for once, today?)

[ozymandius]

101. and on pretty tame volume too

1:05
Dow 7,996.32 Down 286.34 (3.46%)
Nasdaq 1,431.76 Down 67.45 (4.50%)
S&P 500 822.83 Down 29.47 (3.46%)
10-Yr Bond 3.7500% Up 0.0850
NYSE Volume 3,327,849,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,259,508,250

editing to add blather

1:00 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both taken out new multiyear lows. Neither index has been at this level since early 2003.

The Dow remains just a few percent above its 52-week low of 7882.5, which was reached Oct. 10.

The downturn has come on broad based weakness; all 10 of the major economic sectors are now in the red.

Financials, still the worst performing sector, are now down 5.3%. Year-to-date, the financial sector is trading with a miserable 60% loss.DJ30 -255.91 NASDAQ -59.71 SP500 -25.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 537/1.20 bln/2111 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 542/702 mln/2475

[Roland99]

102. Oh look! Faeries!!

[ozymandius]

104. 1:29

Dow 8,087.60 Down 195.06 (2.36%)
Nasdaq 1,457.86 Down 41.35 (2.76%)
S&P 500 833.63 Down 18.67 (2.19%)
10-Yr Bond 3.739% Up 0.074
NYSE Volume 3,695,402,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,407,719,625

[Roland99]

106. only -109 now. S&P back to 841

[ozymandius]

105. These faeries are husky brutes.

Dow 8,139.37 Down 143.29 (1.73%)
Nasdaq 1,462.61 Down 36.60 (2.44%)
S&P 500 836.91 Down 15.39 (1.81%)
10-Yr Bond 3.742% Up 0.077
NYSE Volume 3,789,362,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,434,800,750

[Roland99]

124. They look like they could use a shave.

[ozymandius]

109. Holy Trinkets! A huge block of shares was purchased in the past

fifteen minutes. This lifted the index numbers within striking range of "unchanged".

1:48 numbers
Dow 8,244.66 Down 38.00 (0.46%)
Nasdaq 1,477.01 Down 22.20 (1.48%)
S&P 500 848.99 Down 3.31 (0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 3.737% Up 0.072
NYSE Volume 4,088,939,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,559,435,625

[Hugin]

111. Lemme guess which sector?

Banks? Financials?

[ozymandius]

115. Oil, Telecom and Banks

Then there's Ecolab that's going way high.

http://finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=nq

[Imperialism Inc.]

114. It has been doing this every time it gets around the 8000 range.

It seems a lot of people think that may be the temporary bottom (support). I have to admit I am guessing that as well. The last half of what I planned on buying was set around these levels and most of them executed today and yesterday. It might go lower tomorrow after retail numbers come out but activity hasn't been really responding to news so who knows. I expect it to go lower still next year before it gets better but 8000 seems to be an arbitrary temporary bottom.

[ozone_man]

125. 8,000 is the new 11,000.

Eventually 5,000 will be the new 8,000. :)

[TalkingDog]

126. Arbitrary and temporary bottom (warning eye bleach alert)

I'm sorry. some phrases just strike me as funny.....
Being visually oriented is rather challenging in this aurally oriented world.

[Dr.Phool]

132. Joe the Plumber?

With a wig?

[TalkingDog]

134. Oh, there's hair? The hypnotic crevasse of his ....

glacial mounds caused me to miss that entirely.

[Ghost Dog]

168. Visually, also, TD, please click in #80 and especially #110.

:cry:

[Ghost Dog]

165. Pre-programmed trading,

you're saying. Rather than folks really paying attention to what's going on?

[TheWatcher]

169. You obviously had that same guess the last time this script was played on October 10th.

How did that work out?

[ozymandius]

116. Goldman suspends GM rating, Chrysler urges aid

DETROIT, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs suspended its rating on General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Thursday and said the automaker needs at least $22 billion in federal aid, while Chrysler said it would be "very difficult to survive" without government support.

Chrysler LLC Chief Executive Bob Nardelli said Chrysler was losing money due to a decline in U.S. auto sales to 25-year lows, and said Chrysler would seek federal money for its liquidity and restructuring needs.

In one of his few appearances since merger talks between GM and Chrysler broke off, Nardelli said Chrysler must have broader ties with U.S. automakers or alliances with overseas competitors to ride out the industry downturn.

The auto industry has stepped up lobbying efforts for government support and the heads of the three U.S.-based automakers are expected to testify next week before a congressional committee considering aid for the industry.

The Bush administration said the government could quickly disburse $25 billion in loans already approved by Congress. However, the administration has responded coolly to an aid plan being shaped by Democrats, which includes using part of the $700 billion financial rescue package to provide additional liquidity for the auto industry.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1335454520081113?rpc=44

[MadinMo]

117. It's like Galloping Gerdie today--- up for a bit, then down, then up again.

How will we end up today?

[ozymandius]

119. Place your bet at the roulette wheel.

You have better odds at arriving at the right number.

[ozymandius]

118. US lawmakers challenge big banks on bailout funds

WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. senators asked the nation's biggest banks on Thursday to explain how they are using the billions of taxpayer dollars provided to them under a massive government bailout program. The answers were mixed.

Amid deepening concern about the financial system and the economy, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd urged the banks to spend the money to preserve homeownership and restart credit markets, while putting limits on executive pay.

The $700 billion bailout approved by Congress and signed by President George W. Bush in early October came with strings attached, but not as many as similar European bailouts, prompting some criticism that U.S. banks have too much leeway.

....

Goldman Sachs Group Inc will spend the $10 billion it got on activities such as offering its clients strategic advice, financing transactions and making markets, said an executive for the Wall Street powerhouse.

....

Leading banks JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corp and Wells Fargo & Co said they would use government funds to make loans to creditworthy borrowers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN1335797920081113?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

120. The Piehole Openeth

Looks like the PPT made a pre-emptive buy of a billion shares in the past hour.

2:25
Dow 8,345.18 Up 62.52 (0.75%)
Nasdaq 1,502.59 Up 3.38 (0.23%)
S&P 500 862.02 Up 9.72 (1.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.797% Up 0.132
NYSE Volume 4,796,670,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,832,365,250

[Cal Carpenter]

121. It's up over 150 now!

How bizarre :crazy:

[Roland99]

122. What the hell are they using now? Monopoly money???

[UpInArms]

123. PIEHOLE ALERT! Dimson opens mouth - stupid falls out

01. Bush: Too much regulation worse than too little regulation
2:13 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

02. Bush: G20 will task finance ministers to come up with plan
2:10 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

03. Bush: Crisis will take time to fix, difficult days ahead
2:09 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

04. Bush: Prospect of global meltdown spurred innovative actions
2:08 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

05. Bush: Financial crisis response too complex for one summit
2:03 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008

[specimenfred1984]

127. Just the usual 550 point, instantaneous turn-around

based on horrible economic news. No manipulation here, nothing to see, move along, pretend that finance is over your head, call everyone liars and conspiracy theorists.

[TalkingDog]

129. It was my bottom that did it.

I've got a maaaagical bottom.....

(TD in a very odd and blacklight paisley wearing sort of mood today - and all without 'shrooms)

[Pale Blue Dot]

130. Amen. nt

[Imperialism Inc.]

131. yeah either that or , rightly or wrongly, based on classic chart patterns

of a support level at around 8000 a lot of people started buying at what they think is the temporary bottom. I for one had "good till canceled" orders placed at these levels for a couple weeks now. But nah that makes too much sense. Must be a massive conspiracy since the world is clearly coming to an end.

The clueless hysterics around here is a real hoot most times.

[Dr.Phool]

133. The clueless buying on Wall Street is what is hysterical.

Or manipulation. Take your pick.

[Imperialism Inc.]

141. And what exactly is clueless about it?

I mean you people do realize that stocks are supposed to be long term investments right? What happens day to day and month to month is not all that big a deal unless you are a day trader and who gives a flip about day traders. My SO and I decided now was a good time to put in about 10K. We are doing it so that when our soon to be born daughter (in Feb) is 18 years old we will have money for her college. We are doing it as the prices go down since the object is to buy them when they are relatively cheap (relative to where they will be down the road or in the past). So far almost all 10K is in something and we are about 2% down because of this buy on drops strategy but who cares we have 18 years. I fully expect we will be 10% or more down before things turn around but you can't pick the absolute bottom and who cares we have 18 years.

[TheWatcher]

166. Larry Kudlow would be shaking in his BOOTS right now if he read this.

Because this guy could easily take his job from him if he wanted to do so.

Quit wasting your time posting here WakingLife.

There is a real future for you as an analyst at CNBC.

Then you can get paid for this brilliance.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[specimenfred1984]

136. "clueless hysterics", LOL!

I like being called a conspiracy theorist and terrorist instead, and that's MR. CONSPIRACY THEORIST to you, LMFAO!

[Tansy_Gold]

185. Me too! Me too! I wanna be MS CONSPIRACY THEORIST!

:rofl:

Funny thing is, though, I haven't seen any HYSTERICS here at all. Just calm, rational discussion of a market that's gone, well, er, hysterical.

Actually, though, even "hysterical" is a sexist term, since it comes from the same root as "hysterectomy," since "hysteria" was believed to be a strictly female complaint brought on by imbalances in uterine humours or some such bullshit.

"Frantic" or "frenzied" or "apoplectic" would at least be non-sexist, and probably more accurate, too. Especially "apoplectic," which has always been one of my favorite words.


With congratulations to the smart youngster who's about to have a child,

From a grumpy old broad who DOESN'T HAVE 18 FUCKING YEARS TO WAIT OUT THE MARKET :grr:


also known as



Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

139. There are many ways to goose a market.

The easiest way, with a sufficient amount of funds, is to buy key sectors that will, in turn, goose the automated buy programs that have no emotional component to their decision making process. This, in turn, triggers the emotional buy programs (people) who throw their lot with momentum.

Hysterical me, who does not play at casinos but cares about the relentless propping-up of institutions that move our lives, becomes angry at outright manipulation.

[TheWatcher]

161. The clueless Bottom Picking and Magical Thinking is even more hysterical.

Don't worry though, Kudlow and gang will be on in a few minutes to tell you what to think.

The Recovery is here, The Bottom is in, Stocks always go up, Free Market at work, Dow 10000 and beyond just around the corner, money on the sidelines, opportunity of a lifetime at these levels, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Never mind the eminent Bankruptcy of the Auto Industry, the bait and switch of the Bailout, the record lows of Consumer Confidence, the unemployment numbers, the continuing collapse of the Housing Market, entire countries going Bankrupt, World Markets collapsing, the continuing Credit Market collapse, etc, etc, etc.

Everything is fine.

[Ghost Dog]

173. You're either crazy or very young and short-term, WL. n/t

edit (having read on): 18-year horizon is a fine thing to count on, at your stage in life, though.










So why be so impatient?

[truthisfreedom]

137. Yep. Nothing to see here, no market manipulation... just your usual 550 point swings every hour or

two.

[specimenfred1984]

138. You sound "clueless" and "hysterical", it's just normal buying!

Yeh, that's the ticket!

[Imperialism Inc.]

143. And that hasn't been happening for weeks now?

No one was aware that VIX has been through the roof? Are you even aware of what a support level is? Those kind of turn-arounds often do happen when a stock reaches its support level. Anyway, I give up. I guess I'll leave it to the folks who don't own stock one to figure it all out. I guess it must be the Illuminati. Those fuckers love to pay more for stocks so they can eventually lose money when they go back down to their "true level" which is apparently zero.

[specimenfred1984]

144. Odd thing is, the DOW's just at yesterday morning's gap

This could just be another tech bounce in a downtrend. Ut oh, I got technical and I'm supposed to be a clueless hysterical fucker. Tell me, where's your stop loss in case this buy doesn't work out? Any what did you buy anyway?

[TheWatcher]

171. "And what did you buy anyway?"

Whatever Kramer told him to.

:rofl:

[TheWatcher]

145. Complete, Synthetic, Manufactured Bullshit based on nothing.

800 Point turnaround on basically horrible economic news.

We may have a new President, but we still have the same criminals running Wall Street.

We have seen this movie time, and TIME Again.

It hasn't worked in the past, and it will not work now.

It has only served to, and will only continue to make things worse.

A few weeks ago during the Big Crash, we had this same scenario. Intraday drop to below 8000, and then the Magical Rally back up into the low to mid 9000's. Gee, it looks just like the same script doesn't it?

And now, here we are again, a few weeks later, with Bullshit Miracle 2.0

And for those who WOULD call us liars and conspiracy theorists Fred, and cheer on this ridiculous nonsense as some sort of "savior", simply ask them this question:

In the past few weeks, when we have had these Magical, Miraculous Stick Save Rallies, which COULDN'T be born of ANYTHING other than the Free Market at work :sarcasm: , where has the Market ultimately ended up a short time later.

How have we benefited from this Criminal Heroism?

[Imperialism Inc.]

151. Right back at 8000!! That's the whole point!! That's why it is called

a bottom!!

[specimenfred1984]

156. If 8000 were tested and didn't hold, what's your downside target?

It could just as easily happen, what's your target?

[TheWatcher]

160. My target is still around 6000 when this current Carnival finally plays out.

After that 4500.

[specimenfred1984]

164. I don't use tech targets anymore (numbers), I look at crime

I think when corrupt people start to get arrested, namely a few big names like Gonzales or Rice, the markets will be close to a bottom as U.S. credibility will have a real shot at returning then. Finance, politics, economics: it's all interrelated.

[TheWatcher]

170. Very true that statement Fred.

However you may be far more optimistic than I about such arrests.

I don't think anyone from this administration or from these pack of criminals that has been responsible will ever be held accountable.

The country seems to have an obsession with "feeling good", managed perception, and wanting to move on and just forget anything bad ever happened.

The Game, such as it is, will unfortunately, and quite likely, play on.

And We The People, will continue to Get Played.

[Dr.Phool]

176. Sadly, I think you're right.

Since Iran-Contra, and even before, nobody has ever been held accountable for anything. The occasional fall guy or scapegoat, but that's about it.

We don't want the fascists to call us bad names and stuff.

[Ghost Dog]

174. But but, then you can't arrest or otherwise chastise them

(not castigate, chastise), because otherwise the "holy market" will crash.

qed.

[TheWatcher]

159. But.....But.....I thought the October 10th Low was THE BOTTOM.

Oh, but I know, I know.

It's all the Free Market at work.

Nothing to see here.

:eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

172. Never mind the total international loss of respect

for the govt (not for the people, in general, yet) of the USA.

[specimenfred1984]

140. Russia full of clueless hysterical commies who don't bargain hunt!

--- Russian shares plunge amid market closures

By NATALIYA VASILYEVA, Associated Press Writer Nataliya Vasilyeva, Associated Press Writer – 29 mins ago

MOSCOW – Russia's battered stock markets suffered another chaotic day of trading Thursday, as regulators shut the exchanges in response to falling share prices, then reopened them — a practice that is wearing thin with investors.

The MICEX closed 7.6 percent down, at 598.4 points. The other main exchange, RTS, dropped 2.4 percent to 620 points. ---

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081113/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_russia_markets

[Roland99]

146. 3:47pm - Manipulation? Program Trading? Or did I miss some fanTABulous news?!

DJIA 8,733.30 +450.64 +5.44%
Nasdaq 1,568.89 +69.68 +4.65%
S&P 500 899.54 +47.24 +5.54%
Global Dow 1,452.88 +21.61 +1.51%
Dow Util 375.97 +22.31 +6.31%
NYSE 5,636.97 +316.27 +5.94%
AMEX 1,332.42 +27.93 +2.14%
Russell 2000 479.00 +26.20 +5.79%
Semcond 705.00 -13.30 -1.85%
30-Year Bond 4.33% +0.14 +3.41%
10-Year Bond 3.82% +0.15 +4.17%




820 pt swing!

[TheWatcher]

147. It's exactly the same script from the last time we broke below 8000.

See my post above.

Completely Manufactured Rally.

[Roland99]

148. Following some Elliott Wave Theory threads, a rally seemed to be called for. BUT...

to me, it seems like a last-gasp effort to stave off margin calls, prevent some bankrupcties, and keep hedge funds from going under.

[Ghost Dog]

175. Anyone hear any fanTABulous news out there?

(psst: the revolution's coming, but otherwise no, right?)???¿?

[Demeter]

199. Well, There Was This Election Last Week....

and the recounts are looking very promising....

[TheWatcher]

149. And There is an interesting piece of fiction on Yahoo Finance's Front Page

Yes, kids, they really DO think you are THAT Stupid.

Stocks embark on massive rebound; Dow rises 400
Thursday November 13, 3:46 pm ET
By Madlen Read and Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Wall Street rebounds from selloff that drove Dow below 8,000, S&P below Oct. 10 trading lows

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street launched a massive rebound Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average up more than 400 points after driving it below the 8,000 mark, as investors decided they did not want to miss out on buying stocks at cheap prices.

ADVERTISEMENT
After three days of selling that wiped out about $1 trillion in shareholder value, many investors, though nervous about the economy, believed the market had priced in enough bad news. So when the Standard & Poor's 500 index managed to recover from multi-year trading lows, investors swarmed back in.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081113/wall_street.html

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Roland99]

150. wonder how they define "investors"?

[TheWatcher]

152. If they mean by "investors", programed little Black Boxes with electrical tape holding the F12 key

spewing Infinite Electronic Fiat into the Market, then they may have a point.

Otherwise, their Owellian Pablum is complete nonsense.

[Roland99]

154. +575 into final settling

[specimenfred1984]

158. True, here's an article that describes the mindsets of many:

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20081110_america_the_illiterate/

---...This America, dependent on skillfully manipulated images for information, has severed itself from the literate, print-based culture. It cannot differentiate between lies and truth. It is informed by simplistic, childish narratives and clichés. It is thrown into confusion by ambiguity, nuance and self-reflection. This divide, more than race, class or gender, more than rural or urban, believer or nonbeliever, red state or blue state, has split the country into radically distinct, unbridgeable and antagonistic entities. ---

[Dr.Phool]

162. Read?

We don't need no readin'! We got charts! And charts is charts.

We got talking heads. We got Kramer and Maria!

Read? That's for them literate Illuminati and Freemasons.

[TheWatcher]

167. Kudlow and Cramer are the only Truth we need.

:rofl:

[Ghost Dog]

178. Did somebody mention Freemasons?

Wow. Exorcise this place immediately.

:smoke:

[Ghost Dog]

177. Damn' good (Orwellian newspeak-style) question.

Anyone read "The Economist" this week, btw?

[Roland99]

183. Not I. I need to get to Barnes & Noble

[ozymandius]

153. My alltime favorite scrawl of drivel:

"did not want to hold stocks over the weekend"

Apparently, that phrase has attracted lots of attention.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22837872/

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9805E4DC1230F934A15750C0A96F958260

http://www.wallstreetrockstar.com/Blogs/MatthewMcCall/tabid/59/EntryID/7/Default.aspx

http://search.everyzing.com/viewMedia.jsp?dedupe=1&index=5&col=en-all-public-ep&sort=rel&e=12919213&channelTitle=stocks&num=10&start=0&q=stocks&ci=30&expand=true&match=query,channel&bc=42,41,175&channel=175&filter=1

http://swingtradeit.blogspot.com/2006/03/basic-rules-for-trading-stock-market.html

[Roland99]

155. nice

[Ghost Dog]

179. Yeah.

I didn't vote. I'm disenfranchised.

So I work on influencing others with votes, you understand. Vicariously. :evilgrin: :hi:

[TheWatcher]

157. A 900 Point Turnaround starting exactly at 1PM into the close.

And they want us all believe that as the Market was headed clearly into the abyss, all of a sudden, all of the millions of savvy investors out there realized how "cheap" things were, and all in unison, decided that this was the "opportunity of a lifetime" to get in at these prices, and magically lifted the market basically back to where it was at the beginning of the week.

Never mind we saw this EXACT SAME EVENT on October 10th, when there was a 1200 Point turnaround, which ended up being an 800 Point turnaround for the day, albeit a slight loss.
From there, the "savvy investors" the hallmark of this completely legitimate, conspiracy free, unmanipulated, "Free Market" drive their new found Golden Calf back up to the mid 9000's.

Take a look at historical prices from the past month and tell me we have not seen this movie before.

It looks like the only manufacturing sector we are going to have left in this country will be Propaganda and Fake Stock Market rallies.

[AnneD]

182. I really do love stocks, and the dow.......

I love the excitement to searching for the right stock to buy and watch it grow. I really want to invest, I really do. But I can't bring myself to do it now.....

Too many crooks cooking the books.
Too many CEO's that worry about their parachutes more than the company.
Too many Boss's too quick to get rid of the talent, etc. in exchange for a quick buck.

I have a position and that is cash. I have started investing a small sum investing in the market-but I keep more cash now for the really good deals. I don't mind some loss-I just don't want to have most of my savings vanish into thin air. I have a 10 year time horizon so I have to be careful.

[ozymandius]

181. Let's call it a day. Faeries gotta run home to eat.

The Tooth Fairy has a night job. What is it with the Tooth Fairy wearing a necklace of teeth anyway? It's really gross - considering he got the idea from the Ear Fairy.

*cough* *cough* Ahem...

Dow 8,835.25 Up 552.59 (6.67%)
Nasdaq 1,596.70 Up 97.49 (6.50%)
S&P 500 911.29 Up 58.99 (6.92%)
10-Yr Bond 3.818% Up 0.153
NYSE Volume 7,993,335,500
Nasdaq Volume 3,082,554,000

4:35 pm : Negative headlines sent stocks to their lowest point since 2003, but buyers emerged midday to push the major indices sharply higher. The S&P 500 had been down nearly 4% at its session low, yet finished near its session high with a gain of almost 7%.

The session's gains were had amid disappointing outlooks from tech bellwether Intel (INTC 14.43, +0.91) and retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 54.93, +2.31), along with another batch of weak jobless claims data.

Intel cut its fourth quarter revenue forecast, citing softer demand. The company now expects revenue to range from $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion, which is a reduction of more than $1 billion from its prior estimate.

Wal-Mart stated it expects earnings for the fourth quarter to range from $1.03 to $1.07 per share, and from $3.42 to $3.46 per share for fiscal 2009. However, both ranges fell below Wall Street's expectations, causing investors to look past better-than-expected results for the latest quarter.

Weekly jobless claims continue to indicate a soft labor market and suggest nonfarm payrolls will decline for an 11th consecutive month. Claims for the week ended Nov. 8 totaled 516,000, which is a seven-year high. Claims were up 32,000 from the prior week and topped the consensus estimate of 480,000.

Despite such headlines, stocks still opened the session in positive ground. But before long the major indices began drifting lower, eventually taking both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new multiyear lows. The Dow came within 2% of hitting its new low, which was registered in October.

Crude oil futures also had a volatile session. Crude was up more than 6% after being down more than 2.5% during the session. It settled near $56 per barrel, up roughly 3.6%.

Oil's advance followed reports that OPEC may schedule an emergency meeting to adjust output. Meanwhile, weekly crude inventories increased by a modest 22,000 barrels during the week ended Nov. 7. A build of 1 million barrels was expected.

The strength in oil prices gave energy a double-digit lift. The energy sector finished 11.1% higher, more than any other sector.

Gains were broad based as all 10 economic sectors posted gains, each finishing near their session highs. Even the struggling financial sector finished with an impressive advance of 8.1%. The financial sector remains the worst performer this year, down more than 54% year-to-date.

The advance came on relatively moderate volume as 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished higher.DJ30 +552.59 NASDAQ +97.49 NQ100 +6.5% R2K +1.9% SP400 +8.2% SP500 +58.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2006/3.0 bln/771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2311/1.99 bln/805

[AnneD]

184. I always heard that the tooth faerie recycles the teeth......

we know it is true because the day after my daughter lost her's....the baby across the street cut her first one in the same spot. My daughter can't be convinced otherwise.

[ozymandius]

186. That's very sweet.

My son found his stored in a small jewelry box. He declared the box his "tooth coffin". He has a somewhat macabre sense of humor. Can't imagine where he got that....

[AnneD]

210. The first picture that my daughter ever drew...

that I could make out was a spider. She was so excited and I'm thinking great I have a Wednesday Addams here.I was happy until I remembered they were reading nursery rhymes. Well, maybe I was right after all-her humor is as dark as mine. Addams Family Values was is fav movie among others. (Edward Scissors Hands, Prizzi's Honor, etc)

[Ghost Dog]

187. .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3Ja-YA0tOs (John Coltrane, Chasin' the Trane)

[truthisfreedom]

196. Asian markets up over 300 at the moment!