U.S. in recession, jobless to peak at 7.5 pct: survey

[OhioChick]

Source: Economic Times India/REUTERS

17 Nov 2008, 1558 hrs IST, REUTERS

WASHINGTON: The U.S. economy is in recession and will contract at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, extending the decline into early 2009 as high unemployment crimps consumer spending, a survey showed. The National Association of Business Economists' poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.Preliminary government estimates showed GDP contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter. The results of the survey, which was conducted between October 28 and November 7 indicated growing pessimism among forecasters.

"Business economists became decidedly more negative on the economic outlook for the next several quarters as a result of the intensification of credit market stresses and evidence of spillover to the real economy," said NABE President Chris Varvares."Credit conditions continue to be tenuous. Despite the hefty liquidity injections by the Fed and the Treasury, the majority of NABE panelists believe that tight credit conditions will continue."

A month ago, forecasters expected the economy to expand 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, with the growth pace acceleratingto 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Troubles in the U.S. housing sector, emanating from the extension of loans to homeowners with poor credit history, have engulfed the broader economy, resulting in rising job losses and tight access to credit.


Read more: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/International_Business/US_Jobless_to_peak_at_75_/articleshow/3723325.cms

[SpiralHawk]

1. "Shock and awe, baby. Smirk." - Commander AWOL & Republicon 'elitist' Totalitarians

[onehandle]

2. I still think that we've been in recession since March of 2001.

Between the cash that Bush borrowed from the Chinese for his war and his administration playing with the numbers, it's been hidden all of this time.

Heckofajob, Bushie.

[area51]

4. Agreed. (n/t)

[blue_onyx]

9. I do too

Michigan is really the only state where it was obvious (thanks in large part to Bush's buddy John Engler). I remember survey after survey that showed the American public was pretty pessimistic about the economy. After the Democrats won back Congress in 2006, the Republican pundits said, "Maybe the "liberal media" will now talk about how great the economy is doing" as if we need to be told if we're doing well. Republican's think that low unemployment and higher GDP equals a great economy. People who lost their $20 a hour job at a manufacturer may have a job but it's now at Wal-Mart working for $7 a hour. Job growth has been much lower than GDP growth....so it's really the company owners and CEOs who are benefiting.

[madhawk]

3. forms

i was wondering..................what forms do i fill out to get my government bailout? i am going under too.
hawk

[KansDem]

7. First, you need to change your name to "Bank of Madhawk"

...then follow the big boys' lead.

[Pale Blue Dot]

5. I'll give a cookie to anyone who can explain how unemployment stops at 7.5%

What is the mechanism that will keep it from going down further? Why is 7.5% the floor? Or is that number simply pulled out of somebody's ass?

[OhioChick]

6. I think that number is pulled out of someone's ass....

Ohio's unemployment rate was 7.2 percent in September, don't tell me that we've already hit rock bottom. More businesses are in the process of packing up shop. I know 7.5% is nationally.....but still.

[SteveG]

8. agreed, we'll be at 7.5% by the end of December

and by next June 9.5, higher if GM folds - Chapter 11 is a daydream, it will be chapter 7.

[LonestarSB]

10. I know it is bad some places...

but I went from making 9.00 an hr to 20.00 an hr with one application.

the jobs are there. You just have to look for them.

The economy is not bad in Texas

[truthisfreedom]

11. Maybe it will stop in the single-digits for now, but after 2011, it will explode.

The demographic of 45-54 year-olds falls off a cliff at that point due to the advent of the birth control Pill in 1960. That demographic feeds the stock market. When it goes, the stock market goes, and there go the jobs.

Read "The Great Bust Ahead" by Dan Arnold, available on Amazon.