Indonesia Polls Show Hard-Line Islamists Losing Ground

[Coventina]

Source: Wall Street Journal

JAKARTA, Indonesia -- The popularity of hard-line Islamic parties is on the wane in Indonesia as it prepares for presidential elections this year, making the Southeast Asian nation a rare example in the Muslim world of a place where secular democracy is taking hold.

That comes as a surprise to some. Five years ago, when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono became Indonesia's first democratically elected leader, the nation was viewed by Western governments and analysts as similar to Pakistan—a place where extremist Islamists were gaining a stronghold.

At that time, homegrown terrorists in Indonesia were mounting attacks on hotels, embassies and nightclubs. Some local governments had begun passing Islamic Shariah laws that included banning alcohol and requiring women to wear headscarves.

Since then, proponents of Islamic law have lost ground. Mr. Yudhoyono's centrist administration, backed by the U.S. and other Western governments, has presided over a war on terrorism that is widely seen as successful. Scores of Islamic militants have been arrested by a police anti-terrorist unit and convicted by Indonesian courts. While some protested these prosecutions, most Indonesians supported the actions.The few militants believed to remain at large haven't carried out any major attacks in Indonesia in the past four years.



Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123500483975818111.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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Well, this is good news.

[LeftishBrit]

1. Good.

[Lucky Luciano]

2. I'll take it! I loved my trip to Indonesia and would like to

go back and check out Borneo, Irian Jaya, and Sulawesi!

[pampango]

3. Particularly good because Indonesia is the most populous Muslim country

in the world. If "extremist Islam" can yield to "secular democracy" there, there is hope elsewhere.

[Turborama]

4. Indonesia is doing a good job getting back on its feet

The main problems that need to get fixed are the destruction of the natural environment and corruption.

K&R

[xchrom]

5. good news indeed. nt

[izquierdista]

6. Does anybody know?

If there is any audio or video of Obama giving a speech in Bahasa? That might have been a negative during the campaign, but now that he is in office I would think it would help him in that part of the world.

[happyslug]

7. So if we repress a group its support dies out?

That worked so well for the South and opponents of Segregation in the 1950s. (End Sarcasm). Voltaire made the observation that just because you have shut someone up, does NOT mean you have converted him to your way of thinking. I point this out for while the article says it looks like the Radical Islamic parties only have support of about 7% of the population down from 2004 where it had 16% (Through in 2004 the Radical parties only received about 7% of the vote, so a question remain is this a real decline or are the radicals holding onto 7%?). Now the Government elected in 2004 did a lot to shift money to the poor (More to keep them happy then any ideological reason) undercut the support for the Radicals among the poor, where it had the largest support. The real issue is can the Government keep up the support for the poor given that Indonesia is a now net importer of oil instead of an exporter? One of the reason for the problems of Indonesia after 1999 till about 2004 had to do with the drop in Income from oil (The increase in oil prices since 2001 helped the Government come up with the money to pay for programs for the poor (Thus cutting the support for the radical Islamic parties). The price of oil has since dropped drastically and with it any money to keep up the above mentioned programs. So far the programs have been maintained, but for how long? Hopefully forever, if that is the case the Radical Islamic Parties will have little appeal, but if the fund are cut back and the poor return to the situation they were in in the 1990s expect the opposite, Indonesia is in a wait and see situation.

[Turborama]

9. Corruption, nepotism, terrible public services and poor eductaion play a major part in this too

You seem quite well versed on what's going on in Indonesia and you may know this already but here's a comment on an article in the Economist from a few months ago that explains things very well...

From: http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12601860&mode=comment&intent=readBottom

"I am an American who has lived in Indonesia for the past thirteen years. It's not at all surprising to me that militant Islam is on the rise. It is the social, political and economic condition of this country that has made militant Islam attractive. And I understand why.

Poverty here is appalling, as is economic inequality. Corruption is even more rampant now than it was under the Soeharto regime. Absolutely everything involves corruption. The Government does not govern, it simply does not function. There is no rule of law. Judgements can be bought. Law enforcement is almost nonexistent. Education and health care here are truly awful. Public services are equally awful. The roads, sanitation, health care, power supply, waste management, urban planning, environmental protection and other basic functions of government here are appalling.

Meanwhile, a tiny minority of Indonesians enjoy tremendous wealth (often the fruits of corruption, collusion and nepotism), and frequently seen getting off almost scot-free when they commit abhorrent crimes (Tommy Soeharto's gang-style murder of a high court judge as a case in point). The media here broadcast absolute trash, much of it celebrating the consumptive lifestyle of the wealthy few. And finally, democracy really does not work yet in Indonesia. It cannot work when the level of education is so poor, and corruption is so rampant. Democracy is not even understood here, neither by the voters, nor by the elected.

The extreme frustration felt by the vast majority of Indonesians in facing the day to day realities of living under such conditions makes militant Islam very attractive. They find a sense of power, a sense of order, security, and something akin to rule of law within its doctrines. There is leadership, there is hope, there is a reason to continue living.

I am therefore not at all surprised at the rise of militant Islam. Unless the most basic problems of Indonesia as a nation are addressed, this trend is bound to continue, and to increase in strength."

[happyslug]

11. I am NOT familiar with Indonesia per se, but this is common in the Third World.

When someone is a Victim of a Society, he or she turns to those parts that response to his or her needs, Radical Islam has provided this option starting in the 1970s, as the Socialist Arab and other Muslim Countries turned to corruption. The same problem arouse in Soviet Russia, The Communist Party was hopelessly corrupt in the 1970s and 1980s but had enough people within the system that wanted a clean government AND a society that worked. This lead to a problem within the Communist party between those who wanted to benefit from the Corruption and those that wanted to end it even if it meet radical changes. Gorbachev was in NEITHER CAMP, but tried to rule Russia balancing between these two extremes. When the production of oil fall staring around 1987, Russia could no longer afford the Corruption so the system collapsed. Out of this the two groups formed additional allies, but the corrupt group was better financed (I.e. they had the money from the Corruption) so they managed to put in Yeltsin (And a right wing group tried to remove Gorbachev, but found it had no support among the army or the people and the coup collapsed, but by that time the Corrupt group had allied with some reformers who rallied around Yeltsin and took power).

Now the reformers within the old Communist Party, took over the Party but was never able to take over. They had more popular support then the Coup Plotters against Gorbachev, but not enough to win support of the Army, thus Yeltsin managed to survive the Attempt take over of his Government by the Army moving against the Parliament. The Communist Party (which had long been abandoned by any of the Corrupt former bureaucrats) still retained its reform elements, and slowly recovered from its debacles in the 1990s (The US Press made all types of Comments about the end of the Communist party in Russia citing its drop in Votes in each elections in the 1990s, talk that ended about 2000 for after that date the Communist party INCREASED its votes in every election).

Right now, Russia has problems, the price of oil was high till last Summer, now it has dropped and Putin appears NOT to be willing to reduce production to increase price (i.e. Putin wants as much money TODAY as he can get, even if that means less money tomorrow, this is the problem with most oil producing countries).

Why the turn to the Communist party? (And why the increase in Church Attendance and power of the Orthodox Church in Russia?). Like the Radical Muslims in most Muslims countries, these two groups are viewed as the less corrupt, they both are local and work with local people solving local problems. As one politicians said many years ago "All Politics are local". Putin and his fellow elite are ruling Russia but have little affect on Russia from the opinion of people who are forced to live day to day. Putin has provided some extra cash (just like they have done in Indonesia) for local programs, but no fundamental reforms to help the person on the Street. Corruption is still high (Through not as high as it was when Yeltsin was in Charge, and this had to do with the fact the Ruling Elite had to face a growing Communist party when Yeltsin resigned and Putin became President). Putin appears to be someone acceptable to the old Corrupt Guard of Yeltsin but also willing to go after some of the worse offenders of the Corrupt oligarchs. Thus, like Gorbachev, he is a compromise between the old Corrupt bureaucrats of the former Soviet State AND the Reform elements from within the Communist party. Putin was picked do to the fear of the oligarchs that if Yeltsin stayed in any longer it would strengthen the Communists who may even get back in power. Giving something (In the form of Putin) was better then losing everything.

The Orthodox Church position is more complex then the Communist party position in the above analysis, for its requirements are very similar to the Communists (I.e. Local control, helping local people resolve problems etc). In this the Orthodox seems to be able to work with the Communists AND have connections with the Ruling elite to get things done. Thus like the Communists the Power of the Orthodox Church has increased over the last 10 years (And 20 years since the Church Power went up under Yeltsin, unlike the Communists who power went down). The Church is important for the Rule of Putin, but more do to its reputation of NOT being Corrupt (like the Communists) AND not being Communists (But some-sort of Alliance or understanding exists between the Communists, Putin and the Church, the exact relationship is unclear). The Radical nationalist and Radical Communists are marginalized in Russia today (Little, if no connections with Putin, the Communist Party or the Orthodox Church) but more to the fact they do NOT do any work with the poor (Unlike the Church and the Communists). This is UNLIKE the situation in Muslims countries where the Radical Islamics PROVIDE the services the Orthodox and Communists are providing in Russia.

Now one observation of Putin was he was an ex-KGB official, thus understands not only the large view of things (i.e. the price of oil and how it affects nations) but also that people want people to help them solve problems, which is the Strength of the Communists and Orthodox Church. Now the Orthodox Church is much weaker then the Communists in providing services, but that is compensated by its connections with Putin and elements of the former Soviet Government (Which also used the Orthodox to assist people and thus keep them loyal). To a degree ALL nations do this, Welfare, Food Stamps, Social Security and the rest of the Welfare state is in the US is provided by the State and the Federal Government so that both can help people on the local level, just like the Communists and Orthodox Church power is their ability to help people at the local level. The various parties founded by Putin in his efforts to get elected have little following EXCEPT Putin's ability to convince people he should be in Charge on the National Level.

I bring the Russians up to show that the expansion of the Radical Islam in Muslim Countries is done in Non-Muslim Countries, in Russia is some sort of strange combination of the Communists, the Orthodox Church and some elements of the KGB (i.e. Putin). In Indian it is the Radical Hindus (Which more then off set whatever Radical Muslim exist in India). In Ceylon you see the same actions by the Buddhists. In Africa Countries it tends to be Christian or Muslim radicals. In South America it tends to be Catholic and the Communists (When those two groups are not trying to kill each other), which like in Russia the Catholics and Communists work together to help the poor (This cooperating out any Radical Communists or Christian Fundamentalism, which is the best explanation for why South America is doing better then the rest of the Third World when it comes to Secular Democracy, the greatest threat to Secular Democracy in South America is protestant fundamentalist who hate Catholics as much as Communists).

Just comments on why the Islamic Radicals are on the March world wide. The main reason is they take care of the poor in their own countries better then the Countries themselves and as long as that is the Situation they will grow in Strength, like the Communist Party in Russia (And to a much lesser extend the Orthodox Church) for the same reason, they help people who are in need of help.

[annabanana]

8. Open societies have so much to offer. .

Systems have to be seriously screwed up to make radical fundamentalism look good in comparison.

(extrapolate at will)

[biopowertoday]

10. There is a good

graph at the link also.

Like other countries they have turned their attention to the economy.


..............Mr. Yudhoyono isn't a shoo-in for re-election, especially if Indonesia's commodity-dependent economy continues to weaken as expected.

But for now his chances are looking good, in part because the former army general has restored a sense of law and order to Indonesia since the chaos following the fall of authoritarian president Suharto in 1998.

His administration has clamped down on corruption, transferred cash directly to Indonesia's poorest families, and allowed technocrats to run the economy, which continues to outperform many others in Asia.

"Yudhoyono doesn't even have an Islamist challenger—that's an amazing fact," given earlier expectations of Islamic party gains, says Marcus Mietzner, an expert on Indonesian Islam at the Australian National University in Canberra.