Soros sees no bottom for world financial "collapse"

[Tab]

Source: Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.

Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.

He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.

"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."

His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.

Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.

"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090221/bs_nm/us_financial_soros

---

I can't say this exactly gives me the warm and fuzzies.

[OhioChick]

1. That makes me feel more calm....

:sarcasm:

[marketcrazy1]

6. this contraction in output

is a real problem. with a six to eight month lag time I would think that by late summer or early autumn things are going to get pretty bad.......... plan accordingly..... I am.

[OhioChick]

10. In my neck of the woods...

Things are already bad......I can't fathom much worse. :cry:

[davekriss]

22. That's actually what we see (my firm)

THe bottom will hit this summer. The problem is will we see a "V" recession, or even a milder "U" recession? Our experts think we will see an "L" recession. We'll bottom and stay there for a long time.

[marketcrazy1]

33. the word is DEPRESSION

and it will be L shaped L as in loooooooooooooooooooooong!! drawn out and painful. oh and most of our "experts" you know the ones who did not see this coming, the ones our government is listening to, those "experts"........... are ASSHOLES!!!

[No Elephants]

71. Sadly, I agree with you. And I think we are doing all the wrong things in

response to the crisis.

Sorry to be so glum, but welcome!

[The Brethren]

98. Well said.

Know what you're paying for. The Stimulus Plan ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009"): Orig. House version -- http://appropriations.house.gov/pdf/RecoveryBill01-15-09.pdf , House spreadsheet -- http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pV-c6t5fOVmNorqMpHvnCMw ; Senate version -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_02_The_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009.pdf ; and Senate compromise -- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1 , Text and $$$ details of Senate compromise -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_08_UPDATED_Appropriations_Provisions_of_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act.pdf?CFID=4043629&CFTOKEN=40573040 . In addition to -- http://readthestimulus.org/amdth1.pdf , along with -- http://www.readthestimulus.org/ . Final version, Feb. 13th, 1500 pgs. worth -- http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/arra_public_review/ , more details on the final version -- http://www.taxpayer.net/resources.php?category=&type=Project&proj_id=1913&action=Headlines%20By%20TCS , including spending -- http://cbs4denver.com/national/Web.government.accountability.2.937188.html

[The Brethren]

52. Very good advice.

My partner and I have been planning already -- over the past yrs., esp. this past year. We made financial changes to make sure our home is secure (paid off) and that we are over all more secure. But still, depending on how bad this gets, you can't be too sure of things. I've also tried to advise family and friends to do the same -- to prioritize their money as best they can.



Know what you're paying for. The Stimulus Plan ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009"): Orig. House version -- http://appropriations.house.gov/pdf/RecoveryBill01-15-09.pdf , House spreadsheet -- http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pV-c6t5fOVmNorqMpHvnCMw ; Senate version -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_02_The_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009.pdf ; and Senate compromise -- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1 , Text and $$$ details of Senate compromise -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_08_UPDATED_Appropriations_Provisions_of_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act.pdf?CFID=4043629&CFTOKEN=40573040 . In addition to -- http://readthestimulus.org/amdth1.pdf , along with -- http://www.readthestimulus.org/ . Final version, Feb. 13th, 1500 pgs. worth -- http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/arra_public_review/ , more details on the final version -- http://www.taxpayer.net/resources.php?category=&type=Project&proj_id=1913&action=Headlines%20By%20TCS , including spending -- http://cbs4denver.com/national/Web.government.accountability.2.937188.html

[Le Taz Hot]

77. How nice for you.

You're clearly a better person than all of us out here who are struggling and how classy of you to feel compelled to point that out. :puke:

[The Brethren]

90. Your insulting response wasn't called for.

I was trying to help and share my opinions. My partner and I are doing better financially then we were because we worked our asses off to do so. We made a point to do so. We have both been very poor and struggling before. And both of us have spent our time and our money to help others now and over the past years.

I don't know who you are or how you have chosen to use your money to help yourself over the years. But I am not responsible for you and your financial problems. And after reading your rude post to me, I could careless about your problems, they are yours. And unlike you, Le Taz Hot, I would not have written a post like the one you did to someone who was trying to help and talk about things. Nor would I take my financial problems out on someone else as you just did with me. I am responsible for taking care of myself and my loved ones -- which is what I have done. And you are responsible for yourself.



Know what you're paying for. The Stimulus Plan ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009"): Orig. House version -- http://appropriations.house.gov/pdf/RecoveryBill01-15-09.pdf , House spreadsheet -- http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pV-c6t5fOVmNorqMpHvnCMw ; Senate version -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_02_The_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009.pdf ; and Senate compromise -- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1 , Text and $$$ details of Senate compromise -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_08_UPDATED_Appropriations_Provisions_of_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act.pdf?CFID=4043629&CFTOKEN=40573040 . In addition to -- http://readthestimulus.org/amdth1.pdf , along with -- http://www.readthestimulus.org/ . Final version, Feb. 13th, 1500 pgs. worth -- http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/arra_public_review/ , more details on the final version -- http://www.taxpayer.net/resources.php?category=&type=Project&proj_id=1913&action=Headlines%20By%20TCS , including spending -- http://cbs4denver.com/national/Web.government.accountability.2.937188.html

[Le Taz Hot]

103. *I'm* insulting?

You post some holier-than-thou bullshit about how well your partner and you have planned and how well you're set up, etc. You know what? A LOT of us planned well. A LOT of us worked our asses off -- still are. Your inference is that those of us who are struggling were too stupid/irresponsible with our money and we deserve what we get. Apparently you have never had a business fail. Or major medical problems. Or been downsized or outsourced. Or been the victim of any number of tragedies that have befallen so many. Well, good for you. Some of us haven't been that fortunate and the last thing we need is some sanctimonious asshole inferring that it was irresponsibility or stupidity that put us in our situation.

Sorry if I upset your perfect little sanctimonious world but *I'm* not the one who needs sensitivity training here, sport.

[ronnie624]

79. Thanks, Brethren, for your comments and your links.

They are appreciated, despite the oddly misplaced expressions of anger.

[Quantess]

108. Thanks for being helpful.

Some people let their jealousy get the better of them.

[Delphinus]

92. But continued growth is simply unsustainable.

I know - I don't want to hear that or think about it either. But it's true. We simply cannot continue to "grow".

[cliffordu]

2. "Put the horses in the wagon....It's all downhill from here..."

[liberalmike27]

84. I think you mean

Put the wagons in a circle, don't you? You know, to guard from the indian attack?

Yea, it ain't over yet, for sure. That's why stemming the tide is important.

Everyone is tip-toeing around the obvious, paying for all of this, and the only people truly left who are going to pay, are the ones that can, the very, very rich. They've extracted just about every ounce of blood, and salary they can out of the poor and middle class, with property, sales, gas, utility, state, and payroll taxes. People seem to ignore all of these, but they are what have replaced the income taxes the richest segment of the population used to pay.

And while we are at it, how about a few new tax brackets for 300,000 to a million, a million to ten million and ten million and above.

Perhaps counting all income as income tax too, rather than giving some this special status of "capital gains."

[cliffordu]

88. I was quoting Firesign Theater.......

[MADem]

3. Gee, good thing we didn't privatize social security....those people would be on the street with the

Madoff crowd.

[davekriss]

23. I would hope there is nobody on DemocraticUnderground....

...that thinks anything positive, except class theft, would have resulted from privitization of social security. O, I guess there's the naive young, and the trolling Republican -- but not anybody on the left, yes?

[MADem]

26. It wouldn't be up to us! We're a fraction of a single percentage of the voting public.

That was a greater American "we" I was referring to, that encompassed the party in power over the last eight years, who were touting that idea and denigrating Big Al's lock box.

[tex-wyo-dem]

34. Just a theory of mine, but I believe the whole effort...

To privatize Social Security was actually an effort to help stave off the financial meltdown: release tens-of-trillions of $ out of SS onto the market to help keep the bubble inflated. Even that wouldn't have lasted forever and we would all eventually be screwn.

[davekriss]

50. I absolutley agree, (absolutely)

Class thedt. Nothing else needs to be said on this matter. Except, of course, about how our class will react to this theft.

[bigbrother05]

68. No, think it was just the next phase of the RW Ponzi scheme

Their "investor" pool was drying up and they wanted access to all that additional capital. Fits in perfectly with shrinking government to destroy it. The rich bastards would have had access to the last hope of the middle/lower class and then they would have owned us from cradle to grave.

It's all about the RW dream of returning us to the golden era of the '90s (1890's).

[No Elephants]

72. You may well be right. I think Bushco did everything it could to keep

this from hitting the fan until after Bush left office. Then they tried to keep it tamped down until after the 2008 Presidential election. But, they just could not manage either goal. Only God knows what they did. We may never know.

[SpiralHawk]

75. "Smirk - Sneer." - Commander AWOL & VP Dickie 'Five Deferments' Cheney (R)

[The Brethren]

53. Dear gawd no.

That was on of junior's craziest schemes I ever say. And I bet there a lot of bush supporters who wanted that to happen, who are now probably shaking their heads, grateful he didn't get away with it.

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

4. You can't really trust Soros.

He helped precipitate the Black Wednesday currency crisis in England and made a killing short selling the pound. He did so by publicly talking smack about the pound's strength in high-profile media events.

The man will go for any economic weakness and seize it to his advantage. Do not trust.

[Trajan]

9. Your right ... he is lying ....

Everything is actually OK ....

Hmmmmm ... Let me think a bit ...

[Veritas_et_Aequitas]

14. You're missing the point.

What I'm saying is we shouldn't take his word as Gospel. He's just another billionaire out to exploit our misery.

[depakid]

16. Soros is an opportunist- with no qualms about exploitation

That's how he's made his fortune.

Volker's comment made me a bit curious on another thread as to whether you can make any valid comparisons with regard to rapidity and interconnecticity between today and a time when the computer wasn't even a glimmer in Alan Turings mind.

[FreakinDJ]

32. As with every thing else in the information age - it will happen faster

We will hit bottom and then pick our selves up again.

[No Elephants]

73. No doubt, but my gut has been saying the same thing for a while now. Therefore, I am

tending to believe him and Volcker. Of course, my gut knows nothing about economics and it, too, may be lying to me. It wouldn't be the first time! I agree with Bill Clinton that betting against America is not a good idea.

I think the most prudent thing is to act as though Soros is correct when you budget and plan your own spending. Beyond that, don't get paralyzed with fear. I have not a clue what to say about investing, though.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

20. ROFLMAO! Don't you just love optimists? nt

[pampango]

86. Don't love 'em or hate 'em. Same thing with pessimists. Take what each says with a grain of salt,

then make up your own mind. :)

[Skink]

5. On life support and the U.S. without universal care.

[Trajan]

7. Time to buy guns, ammo and garden implements ?

Can you say 'survival' ?

Call me crazy, but what I believe is necessary to stave this disaster ? .... Wage INCREASES, which is what the 'bailout' should have primarily consisted of ....

Layoffs should have been averted using bailout monies to temporarily maintain solvency for marginal businesses ....

Allowing huge masses of the working public to go broke is hardly a recipe for recovery - It is a vicious cycle to the bottom of the deep pit ....

Higher wages are the stimulus we need .... Yet that is what is disappearing most of all ....

I'm thinking somewhere along the Willamette river valley ; Nice arable land where one could erect a shelter and do some farming ..... or perhaps a sailboat along the Columbia; some inland harbor that is safe in storms but fishable year round .... Fish trade very well in a barter market ...

[readmoreoften]

42. You got it!

We're poor because we've been robbed.

[napoleon_in_rags]

57. I think community connections are the most important.

What we're looking at losing is the stuff that holds a lot of social structures together. The people in social structures outside of money: churches, community groups etc. are in the best position to survive.

[Mind_your_head]

8. Sure he feels this way.....I understand he bought a lot of Kraft stock recently

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KFT

[marketcrazy1]

13. go long macaroni and cheese!!!!!!

weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[No Elephants]

74. LOL

[Mari333]

11. que sera sera. nt

[davekriss]

12. You, we, should be terrified

I work for a Fortune 100 manufacturer. It's been around for nearly a century. Orders have literally evaporated. The economic metrics we watch have been driven into the floor but their downward trajectory appears to be accelerating. We're talking internally of ejecting almost 20% of our workforce with hints that in our worst Post World War II climate we ejected a third of our workforce and current conditions by far dwarf the worst we've seen since then. This is indeed a DEPRESSION. It will take at least, we believe, 5 to 6 years to dig ourselves out if not a decade.

This really is the Day of Reckoning. This is indeed what every one of us (with academic interest in economics) has feared, a (believe it or not) typical result of unfettered freedom for capital, for the concentration of wealth that results, the result of putting people who believe in "freedom" above all else in charge of the wheels of power.

The "freedom" I speak of is the freedom of capital to exploit the slave. The freedom of capital to demand unfree (authoritarian) rents from the market, the freedom of the already advantaged to augment their advantage by buying political power (fascism). It's not like we haven't seen this before; on the contrary, it has repeated after every "Roaring Twenties" or "Guilded Age" in our history. There will be a swing to the Left to pick up the pieces, but it seems we (as a species) never learn. Self-inflicted pain. Intense hangover. But unfortanately the latter translates to acute human misery for the masses.

May we rise up and claim what we deserve and desire, peace and prosperity for every man, not just the few.

[Skink]

17. OK you don't have to get technical.

[Tab]

18. Well, I am.

I'm trying not to say it.

I have qualifications over and above the average bear, but when I look at job listings, instead of 50 or 60 a day, there's one. Maybe two or three.

I have a sneaking suspicion that I'm watching a train wreck in slow motion, and I hope it'll resolve, but more and more I'm thinking I'm riding this thing to the end, and it doesn't have a pretty end, nor is it ending soon.

I try to look outside the box; even in crappy economies there's always bright spots, even if they mean being a car repo service or a seminar instructor (at least I've done the latter) but I really, in my adult life, haven't felt this much concern about the economy.

I have a couple of months of play time before things get really dire, so I have until then to get a game plan in place, but every day I hear about major corporations not just doing layoffs, but actually frickin' going under.

Yes, I'm terrified. This has the potential to go badly southward, and possibly really fast.

I don't even think I could sell my house without it actually costing me money. For the first time in my life, I'd have to pay money to unload my house. And I know I'm in a better shape than many, which just doubly scares me.

I remember when I was at college and came out of a building and someone had said something about a storm but I looked and just saw blue skies. Then I turned around and hovering over the rear of the building was this big black storm cloud and storm system, and we soon got majorly swamped. It kind of reminds me of that. If you look in the right place, it seems okay, but if you know where to look, there's serious problems a-brewin'.

[davekriss]

21. I have to tell you

I don't know where you could look today and think things are "ok".

Having said that, we did survive the Depression. We will prevail. And in fact favor will tilt toward the everydayman again, for awhile. But we do have a trial by fire to walk through first.

[tonycinla]

38. Different people

The "we" that survived the Great Depression was a different demographic than we are today.A much higher percentage of the people were either living on a farm or had been raised on one and had recently migrated to the city.Quite frankly they were tougher and did not have the "I want it all and I want it now attitude" that afflicts many of our current citizens.They knew how to practice "delayed gratification".This oncoming hard times is going to some positive character building aspects to it.We have gotten too fat and lazy as a people,both mentally and physically.Almost everything self corrects.

[JSK]

67. The other difference between then and now

is that we were then a country that manufactured things. Now we make nothing here. That scares me more than anything. Well, as much as anything.

[readmoreoften]

45. You are awesome. Thank you for posting.

How do you "regulate capital" when capital owns everything? That's the real question. What kind of "democracy" can exist in such a climate? It's over. But I'm optimistic, because at least we can pick up the pieces and move forward. Only solidarity will get us through this. Living off the land and stocking up on ammo to protect ourselves from our neighbors is not the answer because our neighbors aren't the enemy.

[Two Americas]

66. key point, thanks

Yes we need to pull together. These debates about how bad things are get tiresome. Both are true - we are in for very, very hard times; it had to happen, and something new and better can arise.

This is the best statement on the thread:

"Only solidarity will get us through this."

We have a ways to go there. That is what makes things so stressful and dangerous right now - too many people have yet to realize this is required.

[The Brethren]

55. It's clichéd, but true.

History keeps repeating itself over and over again. Similarly, the cycle of economics also repeats itself and has it own rules. Certain factors in economics keep showing up over periods of time, and some of these will naturally feed off each other. Much of what is occurring is very predictable.

There are also some differences in our economic crisis then previously, and some of which are unique to our era. Such as plastic money/credit cards and the credit system, which is a serious temptation that has lead to a nationwide pattern of debt and vulnerability. The unknown variable is what direction our country will end up taking this crisis if doesn't stop.

[inna]

93. great post, Davekcriss. thank you. nt

[unkachuck]

15. I've got the rope....

....who has a tree? What we need is some good old-fashion hangin's....hanging these banking and wall street bastards won't change our economic situation but it will certainly make us feel good!

....a dozen televised hangings might return so much confidence to the American people that they might even begin to invest and spend....

[davekriss]

24. That is one disgusting photograph. Greed personified.

MF. May he rot in hell. Definately one of the WORST of this century (and there are some pretty awful "worsts"!).

[readmoreoften]

46. Too bad the bastard is already dead.

[SOS]

96. In the Panic of 1873,

Wall Street bankers were dragged from their offices by angry mobs and hanged.

Ouch!

[xchrom]

19. yeesh. nt

[percussivemadness]

25. the fact that Soros says we are not near the bottom means

we are at the bottom, he just needs to get it down a few more points by talking this shit so he can make a few billion more.

ah well, he is 80 soon, soon to meet his maker methinks, that will be an interesting conversation to put it mildly.

[napoleon_in_rags]

61. He's telling the truth, mark my words.

We can't even SEE the bottom of this thing, and its not going to be over in years or even decades. We've run into fundamental limits with resource exploitation that require a total change of how we live, and even after we've made those changes, this way of life is never coming back: The quality of life may even be higher, but things will never be the same.

But just watch. Feel free to make fun of me if the market rebounds in the next few months and everything is hunky dory, but I am pretty sure it isn't.

[FarCenter]

27. One thing different from the Depression is Just In Time supply chains

There is limited inventory build up to cushion the downturn.

As soon as final customer orders slow, the data processing systems slow orders to suppliers, sppliers slow orders to their suppliers, etc.

E.g. if sales of PCs slow at Best Buy, it doesn't take long for sales of power supplies to slow, whic in turn causes sales for capacitors to slow, which in turn causes sales of tantalum to slow.

Supply chains are all electronic now, so it is really quick. You don't have a long reaction time with inventories building up at each stage in the supply chain to cushion the downturn and have it slowly ripple through manufacturing.

OTOH, it should also level out and ramp back up reasonably quickly for the same reasons.

However, there is another difference in that much of the economy is based on services, not manufacturing. Once those functions are gone or replaced by automation, it may take a long time to revive the service economy.

[percussivemadness]

28. whilst your basic premiss is correct, i disagree

with your statement re manufacturing.

The U.S. by far remains the world’s leading manufacturer by value of goods produced. It hit a record $1.6 trillion in 2007 — nearly double the $811 billion in 1987. For every $1 of value produced in China’s factories, America generates $2.50.

don`t believe the hype, certainly things aren`t where they were, but this is a natural progression, and the US will come out of it sooner than many realise. I predicted oil would be under 65 a barrel by Feb on this very site last August, and was ridiculed for that. People are going to get badly burned over the next few months, but it won`t be the likes of you and me, it will be the super rich.

It is merely a levelling of the economic playing field, and one that is long overdue.

[Baby Snooks]

29. The reality of the "stimulus" is a harsh reality...

The reality is Stimulus II is not going to stimulate the economy any more than Stimulus I did and all we are doing is creating an artificial economy at this point instead of allowing the economy to correct itself.

The world economy will correct itself and when it does we may find ourselves at the bottom of the barrel so to speak with nothing but trillions of dollars in debt and a curious mix of deflation and inflation which will make it impossible for most Americans to do much more than survive the best they can. Our assets will be worth comparatively nothing while the cost of living will increase far beyond most people's incomes. We are already seeing this curious mix on the "price reduced" signs in front yards the country while seeing prices going up almost weekly in grocery stores. Interest rates are low but few can qualify for loans and so real estate is being devalued by what does sell. Deflation. Gasoline has gone down and with it transportation costs which are not reflected in the grocery stores because the grocery stores have seen higher prices in wholesale goods so prices are going up to cover "costs of doing business" which includes higher utlities and higher insurance and higher taxes in some states. Inflation.

Both are tied to the credit markets which are really what have collapsed. And which we continue to try to revive when instead we should just let it all collapse and correct itself.

The only people who are benefitting from the stimulus are the ones who created the need for the stimulus. Mainly the crooks on Wall Street.

We created a false economy as a result of the economic policies of Allen Greenspan and the "neo-con artists" and have merely replaced it with an artificial economy. And the worst is indeed yet to come.

We survived the Great Depression in great part because the wealthy retained their wealth despite appearances they didn't. New fortunes were made off old fortunes. Their fortunes provided much of the capital the banks used to loan with and also provided the actual capital for venture capitalism which brought us the "entrepeneurs" who in the 1950s began to create new wealth in this country. The bottom line was the banks had cash because the wealthy had cash. And used it to generate more cash.

Many of those old fortunes are disappearing as a result of the new fortunes disappearing into the void of the credit markets.

Donald Trump is an example of the new fortunes. Financed at this point in great part by bankruptcy courts. He just filed for his third bankruptcy. He tells the bankruptcy court each time how much he needs to live on. When he dies his children will probably file the will in a bankruptcy court instead of a probate court.

Donald Trump borrowed his way to wealth. As did many others. And many others borrowed to increase their wealth. Many of whom have "lost it all" with bad investments.

Ken Lay was investigated, and I believe was charged, with regard to loans which he then used to invest with. You are not allowed to do that but in fact many do. If you are wealthy and have a good accountant it's easy to hide. I think Ken Lay lost $150 million in the options markets. Money he had borrowed and still had to pay back. Some believe it was a ruse. Others believe he was desperate and stupid. There have been quite a few others who were equally desperate and stupid.

We actually have two economies. One is just for the rich. They even have different rules applied than everyone else. Something few realize. Certain types of investments according to SEC rules are only available to the rich. Which is how the rich become the wealthy. Which created this economy just for the rich. The rich and the wealthy. The haves and have-mores. That is the economy that has collapsed. And that is the economy that is an artifical economy at this point. It was also the economy, a false economy, of Bernie Madoff. Sooner or later you run out of cash. Bernie Madoff isn't the only one who ran out of cash. The others are simply using cash supplied by the taxpayers. It's all a Ponzi scheme at this point.

[kestrel91316]

30. George seriously underestimates those of us who really keep the

wheels turning in the economy - small businesses. And I am seeing some early signs of improvement. Not so much in the bottom line as in a change in people's fundamental willingness to spend money should it be necessary. People are less afraid - and they TELL ME in no uncertain terms.

[percussivemadness]

31. amen to that

[ScaryBob]

35. Yeah well I'm no George Soros

And I'm just a lowly data analyst in Wisconsin, but I stuck my neck out the other day and bought a new car. And put about 2/3s down, and amazingly got financing for the rest at a really low interest rate for 5 years.

Trickle up. I'm taking that risk. My car dealer will help sell more (gas efficient) GM cars, my salesman will take his commission and buy a new sofa for his house...

I'm going to be part of the solution and not part of the problem.

But of course, the ultra rich can still go F themselves.

[marksmithfield]

76. Good for you

I tried explaining that to someone here the other day. If the consumer doesn't spend a little then jobs are lost. Hiding in a hole and hoarding your money helps no one.

[readmoreoften]

48. Actually, the working class keeps the wheels turning in the economy.

Whether it's in a factory or in a small business is irrelevant.

[JVS]

83. Yup

[riskpeace]

78. I agree with that.

Our business -- vacation condo rentals -- is seeing much better advance sales than last year. You'd think people would cut out vacations first; and they did last summer and fall. And they might all still cancel. Gas is under $2 a gallon which helps.

I respect and admire Mr. Soros and his foundation work. At the same time, he's working an angle like anybody else.

K Sara K Sara.

[The Brethren]

99. I have always

appreciated small businesses and I am hoping they will be one of our strong holds in our recovery, if we bounce back.




Know what you're paying for. The Stimulus Plan ("American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009"): Orig. House version -- http://appropriations.house.gov/pdf/RecoveryBill01-15-09.pdf , House spreadsheet -- http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pV-c6t5fOVmNorqMpHvnCMw ; Senate version -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_02_The_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009.pdf ; and Senate compromise -- http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h111-1 , Text and $$$ details of Senate compromise -- http://appropriations.senate.gov/News/2009_02_08_UPDATED_Appropriations_Provisions_of_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act.pdf?CFID=4043629&CFTOKEN=40573040 . In addition to -- http://readthestimulus.org/amdth1.pdf , along with -- http://www.readthestimulus.org/ . Final version, Feb. 13th, 1500 pgs. worth -- http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/arra_public_review/ , more details on the final version -- http://www.taxpayer.net/resources.php?category=&type=Project&proj_id=1913&action=Headlines%20By%20TCS , including spending -- http://cbs4denver.com/national/Web.government.accountability.2.937188.html

[liberation]

36. OK, then why the f*ck are we keeping this stupid system.

Honestly.

It is surreal, we are committing suicide by placebo.


It all comes down to the fact that the whole world economy is collapsing, because a crapload of money that never existed to begin with... stopped existing.


Money, wealth... it is just an illusion. Honestly, we need to evolve.

Honestly what can you tell me that it is significantly different than 1 year ago? People work as hard, there has been no natural cataclysm. It was just that one day someone decided there was a bunch of numbers missing. Numbers that only exist in the memory of a bunch of computers.

Is that it? Is that all it takes to take down the human experience?

Not a meteorite, not a gamma ray blast, not a massive cataclysm... just a couple of zeroes missing in a computer somewhere?

We really never stopped being apes, did we?

I mean, imagine when we get invaded by some aliens. And we have to explain them what our undoing was. I would be so f*cking embarrassed...

[Silver Gaia]

91. Great post. Thanks!

;) :D

[pa28]

37. George Soros has made a huge fortune from playing bubble collapses.

He calls this one the "super bubble" - credit bubble, equities bubble, multiples bubble, wealth bubble, derivatives, debt, etc. all connected and all bursting at the same time.

He's fond of saying the shape of boom and bust will totally collapse and then actually overshoot to the downside. I'm guessing he has not stated where he believes stocks will eventually end up because he thinks it will sound too outlandish or seem scary to some people. But go ahead and take a look at a 25 year stock chart.

[EndElectoral]

39. Pretty scary stuff...kinda suspected it...F...Bush

[Rosa Luxemburg]

40. I guess that's why Cheney wanted everlasting wars to keep everyone busy

the republicans have been good at finding wars

[clixtox]

69. As have that other political party, the whatch-a-ma-callums...

Our nation's economy has been a war economy since the late 1930s.

We are belligerent bullies world-wide with obfuscating public relations expertise.

Obviously it is quite possible to fool most of the people most of the time!

We are but a nation of dumbed-down pigs groveling at the trough, vying for scraps from our masters.

Think!

[Barack_America]

41. Well that's encouraging.

:eyes:

[IndianaGreen]

43. Let us bow our heads at the death of capitalism...

:toast:

The sooner we embrace socialism as the humanistic solution to our social and economic ills, the sooner we'll be better off.

[readmoreoften]

49. Agreed.

But it won't be "embraced". It'll have to be fought for.

[leftstreet]

51. +1

:toast:

[inna]

95. +2 :)

:toast:

[carnie_sf]

56. Agreed nt

[ronnie624]

81. .

:toast:

[DallasNE]

44. JC Penneys Reported Same Store Sales Down 11%

This is pretty much in line with what I am seeing across the board. Keep in mind that these comparisons are against a period which was also in recession, otherwise they would be even worse. Bernanke was too slow and too tepid for too long on lowering interest rates. The only thing Bush did, besides kicking the can down the road for the next administration to deal with it, was to do a narrow one time tax rebate that was so tiny that it didn't even halp the monthly job losses. You can't neglect an economic downturn for months on end and not expect it to fall off the cliff so what were Paulson and Bush thinking?

[wundermaus]

47. Those who have dirt, start planting food now.

Those that don't, start start buying guns and stockpiling ammunition.

[Downwinder]

59. How much do you spend on your front yard?

Can you eat grass? Won't it be more productive to put some edibles out there?

[rpannier]

54. Negative Nay-bobs

I have no idea what they're talking about.
All the sky box seats at the Yankees New Stadium are sold out

[carnie_sf]

58. Actually I think the phrase is

nattering nabobs of negativism. Spiro Agnew I think

[rpannier]

70. You are correct on both counts

It was spiro t agnew and that is the correct quote

[PurityOfEssence]

101. Yes, written for an Agnew speech by none other than William Safire himself

A classic.

[Divine Discontent]

60. yeah, to the super wealthy!

most people have nothing. and a lot of those season box holders bought those on credit, surely! ha...

buy lots of rice, beans, and water filtration is my advice. there's never been a worse time in the past 50 years, and everyone is saying it will get worse who's in economics - I'll believe em for the next couple years.

[windbreeze]

62. Everyone we know is building greenhouses...

buying seeds...and planning...
4 things...Food Shelter Transportation and Security...should be priorities...I have been warning people for a couple years now..and watching what's going on...It is getting real damned scary..anyone who thinks this is going to be quick...is in for a real bad bite of reality...wb

[izquierdista]

63. Everyone calm down

Soros hasn't turned into a Nervous Nellie; this is how he made all his money. First he finds (or incites) a bunch of panic sellers while he quietly buys positions, then when the panic is over and the price goes up, he sells. It's pump and dump but just in reverse -- dump first, then pump it up. I expect George will have a lot of glowing things to say about the future once his inventory of positions is full.

[Habibi]

94. I only have one anecdote about Soros:

He backed a group that bought out the company I used to work for until January. Apparently he doesn't choose his own people very wisely--they bragged about all the money they had, then ran the company (which had been doing reasonably well previously) straight into the ground within six months. Bunch of layoffs, big contraction in product output. I'll be surprised if it lasts the year.

[Scandalous]

102. Damn right! Guys like Soros (and Buffett) do not have...

a charitable bone in their bodies. They exist to profit from the losses of everyone else, and they have the billions to prove it. Every article they write, every soundbite they record... is strategically designed to move the markets in their desired direction.

Remember a few months ago when Buffett bought a few billion worth of GE preferred stock? A week or 2 later, he went on a media blitz, proclaiming that "Now is the time to buy! Everything is on sale! Don't miss this opportunity!" Of course, he left out the fact that he had options to buy several more billion in GE pref. shares at current prices. Those options will be useless unless the price of GE stock goes up substantially over the next few years. That's how these guys work.

[Jeep789]

64. Yet when I said the same long ago

nobody listened, some even laughed ... sigh

[Kip Humphrey]

65. I predicted this 2 years ago. We are headed over a cliff, the likes of which we have never seen!

Good luck everyone. We will ALL need it.

[Kolesar]

80. Sandra Pianalto, president of Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, predicts slight U.S. economic upturn

Posted by Kantele Franko/Associated Press February 18, 2009

COLUMBUS — The U.S. economy likely will show signs of recovery this year, a federal reserve official said Wednesday.
Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank in Cleveland, projected real gross domestic product to decline sharply in the first half of 2009, followed by a modest upturn in the second half.

But she also warned that unemployment rates will likely continue to rise this year and that the economic outlook will be similar to 2008.

"Unfortunately, I don't expect this to get better until we see stability returning into housing and financial markets," Pianalto said in a speech to commercial developers.

Her comments came a day after James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, warned that the U.S. might suffer a dangerous bout of falling prices, or deflation. A widespread and prolonged price decline can drag wages and clobber already-stricken home and stock prices.

Pianalto said housing prices are still declining in many parts of the country, and the U.S. must address foreclosures and other problems to restore economic vitality.

President Barack Obama on Thursday released details of a $75 billion program aimed at preventing up to 9 million Americans from losing their homes.

One part of the plan will ease refinancing for people who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. Another provides incentives for mortgage lenders to help those on the verge of foreclosure.

Pianalto said the Fed, which already has cut interest rates to the bone, also is trying to stimulate the economy with programs designed to extend credit for commercial banks, invigorate the securities market and boost the flow of credit to home buyers.
http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2009/02/sandra_pianalto_president_of_c.html

[JVS]

82. DOOOOOOMED! SCREEEEEEEEWWWWWNN!

[tomp]

85. no wonder i didn't get this.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5091538


closer to the truth than most are comfortable admitting.

[fascisthunter]

87. wanna know what's worse????

we are disallowed from socializing to save our lives, because it's antithetical to an economic theory. We are all trying to stay alive while these rich fanatical fuckers are trying to hold on to their "vision".

[goforit]

89. YiiiiiKES

[vaberella]

97. It will NEVER be like the GD, it could only be WORSE b/c the world wasn't as connected then

as it is today...

[Mr. Hyde]

100. America will walk away from this as the uncontested heavyweight champion of the earth.

I have no doubt.

[paulk]

104. it's not that I don't think that the situation is as dire as Soros says

but I have to wonder why Soros is saying things like this. I mean, he's one of the richest people in the world (ranked 101st, actually), so when he talks, people listen. They not only listen, but Soros' word can have a real impact on events. And since he didn't get rich by being stupid, I wonder if spreading doom and gloom doesn't benefit him financially in some way.

[shannonmerklan]

105. Soros is being a bit too bearish

Economists foresee a slow recovery, but a recovery nonetheless, thanks to the stimulus that was recently passed. I think Soros may be too bearish in regard to this whole financial situation.

[totodeinhere]

106. I'm afraid that Soros is right.

And remember that he is a prominent progressive. So if he is saying this I would tend to want to pay attention to him. We are in such a mess thanks to the previous administration that there just might be anything that can be done about it at this point. That's one reason why the price of gold is over $1,000 an ounce. People are afraid the currencies will soon be worthless and that gold is the only safe haven that we have right now.

[daleo]

107. "comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union"

That's a good comparison. Like the USSR, the recent past has featured another unsustainable economic model (offshoring all manufacturing jobs to China, and buying their products on credit).