STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 27

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday February 27, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 26, 2009

Dow... 7,182.08 -88.81 (-1.22%)
Nasdaq... 1,391.47 -33.96 (-2.38%)
S&P 500... 752.83 -12.07 (-1.58%)
Gold future... 942.60 -23.60 (-2.44%)
30-Year Bond 3.65% +0.05 (+1.25%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.98% +0.03 (+1.12%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Is the Market Glass Half Empty or Smashed Into Oblivion?
BY DANIELLE PARK

Investor sentiment hit a fresh low this month. Global fear is palpable. So many have been so decimated in this ongoing downturn, few highlight hope for recovery. Delirious euphoria of 2007 has transformed into unanimous despair in 2009. Those that called market bottoms week after week as the market fell are now declaring this contraction bottomless. Billionaires are jumping in front of trains. Previously celebrated money managers are being handcuffed and indicted. Dow theorist E. George Schaefer’s 50% Principle theory warns of potential doomsday. The Dow’s February 20 close of 7466 now risks a retrace of the entire gains made by this index since 1982. The Dow could be back at 776 some time ahead? It seems this horror show will never end; the black appears ubiquitous.

The last time I remember such tangible global anxiety was in late 2002. The tech bubble had burst. The twin towers had fallen. Anthrax was in the mail. SARS was traversing the globe. World markets had imploded by half. The SEC was investigating: CEO’s, investment bankers, brokers and insiders. Lawsuits were flying. CNN broadcast terrorist alerts night and day. People were too afraid to fly on planes. Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq had just begun. I recall staying in a hotel in downtown Toronto about this time, staring at the CN Tower looming out my hotel window one night and thinking that if terrorists were to blow the Tower, it would very likely crash through my hotel and vaporise me in my bed. I briefly thought of changing rooms. I then deemed it pointless as the entire hotel would undoubtedly implode. I drifted off to sleep anyway. In the weeks ahead, the news grew bleaker. The jobless recovery began all the same; just when it was least predicted.

As the expansion ran on, I became increasingly concerned about reckless credit expansion creating unsustainable demand. By late 2005 objective risk metrics were headed off our charts. By early 2007, to my amazement our technical measurements recommended virtually complete risk aversion. From 2006 to late 2007, it was hard to find anyone as worried as me about the high probability of an imminent bear market. As it turned out, our fears were a little early. A few clients fired my management firm for being “too conservative” with their money in 2007. But sticking to our rules by early 2008 we were completely out of equities and high yield bonds. Owning only Canadian and US dollars, government bonds and cash, we were able to gain nicely throughout 2008.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

18. What Cheerful News!

If the psychopaths are defunded sufficiently, despite their plan for robbing the Treasury, we might actually see real peace and widespread prosperity in our time.

The bullies on the playground are being ejected from the swings and slides and teeter-totters.

I see a bright silver lining to this particular cloud. A lot of hubris and delusion will summarily end.

[KoKo]

66. And, she does try to put a more positive spin at the end....

:eyes:

-------

Before rabid bears tear at my flesh, I am compelled to offer up the following bullish thoughts that seem presently overlooked:

* Commodity prices have literally imploded more than halving input costs over the past 12 months.
* Interest rates have been slashed to a fresh record low. A 1% Fed rate started a reluctant spending spree in 2003. Recent .5% rates are bound to have some tangible stimulus. Anyone remember the saying: “Don’t fight the Fed”?
* There are more governments and people working to jump-start the global economy with more dollars now, than ever before in history.
* The Obama administration is focusing formidable political will and stimulus dollars at green energy and energy independence precisely at the time when there is a dire need for sustainable domestic industry and jobs.
* Living people still consume. Even though we are no doubt spending more responsibly today, to exist is to necessarily spend and consume.
* Corporate earnings expectations have fallen from a ridiculous $94 a share for the S&P 500 at the start of 2008 to an expected $45 a share in 2009. Even if earnings fall further still, one of these days, the inevitable upside surprise will rear its head again. Earnings won’t be nothing; at least not forever.
* Capital is starting to tiptoe back into corporate bonds. 2008 was one of the worst years ever on record for corporate bond prices. Risk aversion and de-leveraging drove high yield bond indices in North America down by more than 26% in 2008. The worst loss before this had been –9.6% in the last bad recession of 1990. Recent in-flows to corporate bonds are the necessary leading edge of investor return to risk appetite.

The sky is still very cloudy, but will it fall? Opportunities are doubtlessly emerging all around for those not too shell-shocked to come out of the bunkers and rummage around. We have started some careful buying of high yielding equities and corporate bonds. Yes we still have a lot of cash. And yes we have pre-defined our sell rules. I would never advocate wild abandon. We will continue to monitor our technical measurements very carefully and we will sell again if another major market storm threatens our capital.

This is no place for blind optimism. I never recommend that anyone passively buy and hold risk assets. We are likely to be in a range bound secular Bear market for the next few years. But all that said, beware of doomsday cults. Just as it was in 2002, the picture is always darkest before the dawn. The beginnings of a new cyclical bull are more likely to be in the offing now, than at any time in the past 15 years. Acknowledge the downside risks, devise an escape or hedge plan in case of emergency, but don’t ever forget to also look for the light.

Danielle Park

[Hugin]

44. Them too?

"our technical measurements recommended virtually complete risk aversion."

I distinctly remember my 'weather toe' aching at that time. : ouch :

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4
Briefing.com -5.0%
Consensus -5.4%
Prior -3.8%

08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4
Briefing.com -0.1%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior -0.1%

09:45 Chicago PMI Feb
Briefing.com 33.0
Consensus 33.0
Prior 33.3

10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev Feb
Briefing.com 56.0
Consensus 56.0
Prior 56.2

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

34. Preliminary Q4 GDP.. -6.2%!! Consumption -4.3%. Durables -22%; DJIA futures near 7000

[Roland99]

35. U.S. GDP revised to decline of 6.2% in fourth quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B616ECED3%2DC84C%2D4A44%2D98BC%2D56CB5911BE59%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy was hitting on almost no cylinders in the fourth quarter, as gross domestic product fell at the fastest pace since 1982 on sharp declines in consumer spending, investment and exports, the government said Friday. GDP fell at a 6.2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the final three months of 2008, revised from the initial estimate of a 3.8% drop, the Commerce Department reported. It was the worst decline in GDP since a 6.4% decrease in the first quarter of 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a revision to a 5.5% decline. The revision showed inventory investment and exports were "substantially weaker" than first reported, the government said.

[UpInArms]

36. U.S. 4Q GDP revised lower to -6.2% annual vs -3.8% initially

01. U.S. 4Q GDP revised lower to -6.2% annual vs -3.8% initially
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

02. U.S. 2008 GDP revised lower to 1.1% vs. 1.3%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

03. U.S. 4Q GDP revision due to weaker inventories, exports
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

04. U.S. 4Q final domestic sales fall 5.7% annualized
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

05. U.S. 4Q consumer spending falls 4.3% annualized
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

06. U.S. 4Q business investment falls 21.1% annualized
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

07. U.S. 4Q GDP decline of 6.2% is worst since 1Q 1982
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

08. U.S. 4Q PCE price index falls record 5%
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

09. U.S. 4Q exports fall at fastest pace in 37 years
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

10. U.S. 4Q residential investment falls for 12th quarter
8:30 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

[UpInArms]

72. UMichigan consumer sentiment falls to 56.3 in Feb: report

10:06 a.m. UMichigan consumer sentiment falls to 56.3 in Feb: report

that's a 3 month low, if anyone is curious

[UpInArms]

74. U.S. consumers' mood sours in February: survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE51Q3CO20090227

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell to a three-month low in February on expectations that the recession would grind on throughout this year and the jobless rate will keep rising, a survey showed on Friday.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index reading of confidence for February fell to 56.3 from 61.2 in January.

That was marginally higher than the preliminary result of 56.2 announced earlier this month but was the lowest final reading since 55.3 in November 2008.

"Confidence remained unchanged at the same low level recorded at mid-month as consumers found no reason to expect that the recession would end during 2009 and reported record declines in their personal finances and job prospects," the report said.

"Moreover nearly two-thirds of all consumers thought it would be at least five years before the full restoration of favorable economic conditions."

The index's headline number did manage to beat economists' median expectation for a reading of 56.0, which was based on 49 forecasts in a Reuters poll that ranged from 52.0 to 57.0.

Ultimately, sentiment remains severely depressed and is not far from the record low of 51.7 that it hit in May 1980. The University of Michigan confidence index dates back to 1952.

...more...

[KayLaw]

77. Actually, I think it's up.

Unless I'm mistaken the number was 56.2 last month. Very little change either way.

[UpInArms]

79. here's the poop from the Reuters article

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index reading of confidence for February fell to 56.3 from 61.2 in January.

That was marginally higher than the preliminary result of 56.2 announced earlier this month but was the lowest final reading since 55.3 in November 2008.

:hi:

revisions - always revisions

[KayLaw]

80. Ah!

Revisions!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

73. Chicago PMI @ 34.2

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE51Q3AG20090227

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted in February but at a less severe rate than expected as production inched up, a report showed on Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 34.2 from 33.3 in January.

Economists had forecast the index at 33.0. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the regional economy.

The employment component of the index dropped to 26.2 from 34.8 in January. Prices paid fell to 37.8 from 39.8 and new orders slipped to 30.6 from 30.7.

ignore that sweet-sticky spinning sugar headline - anything under 50 is contracting

[ozymandius]

3. Oil dips after rally on signs of renewed demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell back modestly in Asia Friday as traders took profits after signs of improving U.S. crude demand have sparked a 30 percent rally in the last week or so.

Benchmark crude for April delivery fell 61 cents to $44.61 a barrel by midday in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped $2.72 on Thursday to settle at $45.22.

Oil prices have rebounded from below $35 last week on early evidence that the drop in U.S. crude demand may be stabilizing. Government data earlier this week showed that gasoline demand was up 1.7 percent from the same period last year.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 1.79 cents to $1.28 a gallon. Heating oil rose 0.23 cent to $1.30 a gallon, while natural gas for March delivery rose 3.6 cents to $4.11 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Federal agency opens investigation into oil sale

NEW YORK – Federal regulators have opened an investigation into a massive investment fund that allows small investors to place bets on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The United States Oil Fund, which at times controls enough oil contracts to supply the world with crude for a day, sold more than 85,000 contracts on Feb. 6.

Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil.

Oil traders have become increasingly critical of the fund, which at one point built a stake equal to 20 percent of contracts traded on the open market.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday it was closely monitoring trades on Nymex, including activities by the fund.

....

Even traders who are critical of the fund don't believe anything illegal has occurred, but say that the fund has become so large, it has pried the market free of fundamental logic.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090227/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_trade_investigation_4

[Demeter]

20. That Sounds Illegal on Its Face

And if it ain't, it ought to be!

[tclambert]

26. Adam Smith warned that monopolists would try to manipulate the market,

and all merchants (we call 'em businesspeople today) want to be monopolists. It is their natural desire to "corner the market," to build their business into a monopoly or form a cartel, a small group of companies that should compete but agree to cooperate in order to control the market. It's so liberating for them when the "free market" allows the burden of competition to disappear.

It's funny, what they call a "free market" today is exactly the opposite of what Adam Smith called a "free market" in On the Wealth of Nations. Smith meant a competitive market free of monopoly rule. The modern free marketeers mean one free for monopolies to exist (like say giant financial institutions "too big to allow to fail"), and free from real competition.

[ozymandius]

5. Obama budget proposes shift to green energy

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's first budget plan moves aggressively to tackle climate change and shift the nation from reliance on foreign oil to green energy.

The proposed budget released Thursday by the White House would rely on $15 billion a year, beginning in 2012, from auctioning off carbon pollution permits to help develop clean-energy technologies, such as solar and wind power. But Congress has yet to write a bill that would regulate heat-trapping gases and collect that money.

Across the government, Obama's commitment to dealing with climate change is apparent.

....

The budget would impose a new excise tax and fees on companies that take oil and natural gas from federal waters and reimposes a tax — again largely targeting the oil industry — to pay for cleaning up Superfund sites.

The budget calls for "significant increases" in cutting-edge research into renewable energy, including solar, wind and geothermal sources and ways to produce non-corn ethanol, and eventually a gasoline-like fuel, from plants.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090226/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_budget_energy_2

---

Good on him for refunding the Superfund program. Bush allowed the program to wither to the point that it was broke, opting for voluntary cleanup of spoiled sites. Like that worked out so well.

[tclambert]

38. That may be a good start, but global warming is here to stay.

The measurements from 2008 are in. Global warming deniers will no doubt focus on the fact that it was the coolest year in the 2000s. "See, the world is actually cooling down!" They will ignore that 2008 was one of the ten warmest on record, well above the average of the 1990s.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ranks it as the 8th warmest on record (since 1880). http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090113_ncdcstats.html

Goddard Institute for Space Studies ranks it as the ninth warmest. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

And the Climate Research Unit of East Anglia University ranks it as tenth warmest. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

"See, those so-called scientists can't even agree on where 2008 ranks!" Despite three different analyses, they all come in withing their margins of error of each other. GISS talks about MOE in the first paragraph of their release, "The two-standard-deviation (95% confidence) uncertainty in comparing recent years is estimated as 0.05°C , so we can only conclude with confidence that 2008 was somewhere within the range from 7th to 10th warmest year in the record."

Here's the thing. It's too late to stop global warming. It has already happened and the momentum in the system will keep it going for another century at least. We can try to lessen the effects. Probably a good idea. But we must, must figure out the consequences and how to live with them. It might not be a bad idea to encourage people to move to higher ground. Seriously. Without a little push, people will keep building big houses and big hotels right on the oceanfront, even knowing that in 50 to 100 years that oceanfront will be hip deep in ocean.

[Demeter]

19. Is Demand Up Because Gas Prices Dropped 30 Cents this Week?

Down to $1.61 yesterday...

[Demeter]

86. And Back Up to 1.95 Today!

It's the weekend, doncha know?

[UpInArms]

32. April crude down $1.83, or 4%, to $43.39 a barrel on Globex

02. April crude down $1.83, or 4%, to $43.39 a barrel on Globex
8:19 AM ET, Feb 27, 2009

[ozymandius]

6. Economy likely suffered deeper contraction

WASHINGTON – The economy's downhill slide at the end of last year was likely much steeper than the government initially thought and it is probably doing just as poorly now — if not worse — as a relentless slew of negative forces feed on each other, pushing the country deeper into recession.

....

The Commerce Department is set to release a report Friday expected to show the economy contracted at a pace of 5.4 percent in the October-to-December quarter. If economists are correct, the updated reading on gross domestic product, or GDP, would show the economy sinking faster than the 3.8 percent annualized decline the government first estimated a month ago. GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is best barometer of the country's economic health.

....

Looking ahead to the current January-to-March quarter, economists believe it is also shaping up to be quite weak, with many projecting an annualized drop of 5 percent. Given the dismal state of the jobs market, some economists believe an even sharper decline in first-quarter GDP is possible.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090227/ap_on_bi_ge/economy

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 02/25/2009 10,837,499,231,127.11 (DOWN 5,855,827,733.80) (Small.)

(Just small with SS/FICA moving down.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,530,807,049,597.79 + 4,306,692,181,529.32
UP 413,635,509.27 + DOWN 6,269,463,243.07

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,869,115 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,431.82.
A family of three owes $106,295.46. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 9,439,221,943.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,236,736,823.12.
The average for the last 33 days would be 6,578,851,657.38.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 25 reports in 36 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.10B$ per report, 0.11B$/day so far.
There were 100 reports in 148 days of FY2009 averaging 8.13B$ per report, 5.49B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,425 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.8 and 20.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/25/2009 10,837,499,231,127.11 BHO (UP 210,622,182,214.03 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 812,774,334,214.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/04/2009 -000,068,491,025.50 ----
02/05/2009 +046,668,131,793.54 ------------**********
02/06/2009 +000,340,839,567.98 ------------********
02/09/2009 -000,572,980,736.98 --- Mon
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********

167,386,285,200.36 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,172,867,427,868.04 in last 160 days.
That's 1,173B$ in 160 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 115% of that highest year ever only in 160 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 160 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3756753&mesg_id=3756794

[Festivito]

121. Debt: 02/26/2009 10,881,159,722,022.36 (UP 43,660,490,895.25) (Up 48.)

(Borrowing in spurts. SS/FICA amounts fluxuate normally.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,578,855,990,306.71 + 4,302,303,731,715.65
UP 48,048,940,708.92 + DOWN 4,388,449,813.67

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,875,286 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,573.84.
A family of three owes $106,721.53. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 11,317,478,750.43.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,676,733,708.67.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,396,839,072.90.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 26 reports in 37 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.45B$ per report, 0.37B$/day so far.
There were 101 reports in 149 days of FY2009 averaging 8.48B$ per report, 5.75B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,424 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.8 and 22.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/26/2009 10,881,159,722,022.36 BHO (UP 254,282,673,109.28 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 856,434,825,109.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/05/2009 +046,668,131,793.54 ------------**********
02/06/2009 +000,340,839,567.98 ------------********
02/09/2009 -000,572,980,736.98 --- Mon
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********

215,503,716,934.78 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,216,527,918,763.29 in last 161 days.
That's 1,217B$ in 161 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 120% of that highest year ever only in 161 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 161 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3758907&mesg_id=3758927

[ozymandius]

8. World stocks mostly lower as economic fears weigh

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets were narrowly mixed Friday, with Japan's benchmark up 1.5 percent, as persistent worries about the deteriorating world economy and financial system sidelined many investors. European shares fell.

Trade was listless throughout much of Asia after a bruising, volatile month that saw the region's export-driven economies sank deeper into recession amid collapsing demand and their currencies wither.

....

The Nikkei 225 stock average rose 110.49 points, or 1.5 percent, to 7,568.42 — but finished the month down nearly 4 percent to extend this year's losses to almost 15 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng pulled back 83.37 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,880.89 in a back-and-forth session. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.8 percent to 1,063.03.

Elsewhere, China's Shanghai benchmark dropped 1.8 percent, wrapping up the market's worst week this year, as enthusiasm over government stimulus measures waned.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090227/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. workers on jobless benefits at record high

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers drawing jobless aid jumped to a record high in mid-February, while the recession undercut demand for manufactured goods last month and sent new homes sales to their lowest since 1963.

....

The number of people remaining on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of assistance increased by 114,000 to a record 5.11 million in the week ended February 14, the most recent week for which data is available, the Labor Department said.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 667,000 last week from 631,000 the prior week, the department said. It was the highest reading since October 1982.

The surge in weekly applications for unemployment benefits implied February's jobs report could show a decline in payrolls in excess of 700,000, according to some economists.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090227/ts_nm/us_usa_economy

[burf]

29. One point that

I haven't seen brought up is how many of the unemployed have exhausted their benefits? IIRC workers are eligible for 52 weeks total benefit. The number of long term unemployed has to be increasing so it would make sense some have run their benefits out. This could turn into a serious problem in the near future.

[tclambert]

60. Here's a link to an explanation of alternative unemployment measurements

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=114&topic_id=49628&mesg_id=49650

U3 is the official stat the gubmint uses. U6 is the favored measure by many Stock Market Watchers. Like it says, U6 is typically 2 to 3 percent higher than U3. You can sift more info out of http://www.bls.gov with effort.

Here's a more specific link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Let's see, that says U-3 for January is 7.6%, U-6 is 13.9%. Well, that's more than 2 to 3 percent. It's 6.3% different. Damn.

Hmmm, not really your question, though. http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2009/022609.asp says the "insured unemployment rate was 3.8 percent for the week ending Feb. 14." So, do you just subtract 3.8 from 7.6 to get UNinsured unemployment rate? Can that be right? 3.8% of the unemployed have no benefits? That's a crime wave waiting to happen. Or maybe not waiting. Happening.

[burf]

83. Thank you for the explanation

I was reading an article on how the support systems, both public and private in California, are being overwhelmed with customers. It seems the crime wave of which you speak is a disaster waiting to happen. I guess we can only try and help ourselves and each other.

[ozymandius]

10. Citigroup to Be Asked by U.S. to Get Private Capital (Update2)

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration will require Citigroup Inc. to raise private capital and make changes to its board of directors as part of an effort to strengthen the bank, according to people familiar with the matter.

The plan, which may be announced as soon as today, will involve the Treasury Department converting preferred shares into common stock. The government doesn’t immediately intend to provide additional money after channeling $45 billion to the New York-based company last year, the people said.

....

The government’s shareholding in Citigroup probably will be 30 percent to 40 percent after the conversion, the New York Times reported today, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation.

The Treasury Department is injecting a fresh round of bailout funds into the nation’s banks to help them weather the recession. Regulators on Feb. 25 announced details of “stress tests” to determine how much capital banks will need should unemployment climb to 10.3 percent in 2010.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aHfixhywTZBQ

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. takes big stake in Citi

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE51Q0T920090227

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government committed to holding up to 36 percent of Citigroup's common shares in a deal to bolster the fallen financial giant's capital base, and gave most of the bank's board their marching orders.

The U.S. Treasury agreed to convert up to $25 billion in government-held preferred shares in the bank to common equity, provided private investors contribute an identical sum, in the third major aid package for Citigroup since mid-October.

The transaction, which will not increase the government's investment in the bank, sent Citigroup's share price sharply lower in premarket trade on Friday and sent U.S. index futures to session lows.

Citigroup said that, based on full conversion, the government would hold around 36 percent of its common shares.

Major investors including Government Investment Corp of Singapore had agreed to participate in the exchange, the bank said, adding that it would take a fourth quarter goodwill writedown of $9.6 billion.

It would offer to exchange common stock for up to $27.5 billion of its preferred stock, carrying an annual coupon of 8 percent and a conversion price of $3.25 per share, and would suspend dividend payments on both classes of share.

The board unanimously decided on a reshuffle that would leave independent directors in the majority and hoped to announce new appointees as soon as possible, the bank said.

By 7:30 a.m. EST, Citibank shares had slumped 19 percent in premarket trade. Europe's banking sector extended losses to 4.3 percent after the news.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. okay - so let's figure out this puzzle

from Reuters:

Citigroup CEO Pandit says “we completely remain in charge of the day-to-day operations of the company” 8:52am EST

how much of Citi is owned by Saudi Prince al-Waleed?

Saudi Prince al-Waleed bin Talal drops a few Billions into Citi



Ballin’! The richest Muslim businessman in the world is the nephew of King Abdullah also known as al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud. If you haven’t heard already, he’s dropping around $2 billion to $6.88 billion to the currently failing American financial organization known as Citi or Citigroup (Citibank). Citi recently reported losses up to and more than $10 billion which shocked Wall Street. With the investments from Prince al-Waleed and others (Kuwaiti and Chinese investors) Citi hopes to cover their losses and improve their status. Oh yeah, the new CEO of Citi was born in Bombay, India: Vikram Pandit.

and again in November 2008

Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, the embattled bank's largest individual shareholder, is raising his stake back to 5%. But stock continues to plunge

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup Inc. suffered another brutal day on Thursday as shares tumbled to their lowest level in more than 15 years.

News that the giant bank's largest individual shareholder, Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, planned to increase his stake to 5% did little to resolve questions enveloping Citi in recent days.

"Unfortunately it seems like they are sitting on Citi here," said Todd Leaon, head trader at Cowen & Co. "It's sell first and ask questions later."

Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) cratered 26%, extending the brutal losses from Wednesday, when the stock lost nearly a quarter of its value.

So far this year, Citigroup stock is down 83%.

The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported Thursday night that Citi executives were set to meet Friday to discuss their options, including selling off pieces of the company to raise capital.

The move by Alwaleed, a long-time investor in the New York-based bank, follows the U.S. government's decision to inject some $25 billion. That left Alwaleed with about a 4% stake in Citigroup.

...more...

So why do I, once again, think that we are climbing in a financial morass with the Saudis? Is Citi just BCCI in better clothes?

(edited because my sentence did not make sense)

[Hugin]

48. Sure looks like it... Doesn't it?

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck... Must be a moose. (or so TPTB would like us to think.)

[UpInArms]

76. It certainly looks like a duck to me

[AnneD]

90. If my memory serves me right.....

BCCI had involvement in the S&L debacle. Damn the more things change, the more they stay the same. The only way to break this wash rinse repeat cycle is to bring the markets back to pre Reagan regulation. We didn't have these cons going before that point. Geez are we the only folks in America that see this?

[Demeter]

100. BCCI=BFEE + Saudis

Same shit, different day

[tclambert]

103. Why are you guys picking on the Bureau for Control of Cricket in India?

That's what came up the first time I searched on BCCI. Bank of Crooks and Criminals International took a little longer to find.

Wikipedia says the new movie, The International is based on the Bank of Credit and Commerce International and its colorful history. It also says:

Investigators in the U.S. and the UK revealed that BCCI had been "set up deliberately to avoid centralized regulatory review, and operated extensively in bank secrecy jurisdictions. Its affairs were extraordinarily complex. Its officers were sophisticated international bankers whose apparent objective was to keep their affairs secret, to commit fraud on a massive scale, and to avoid detection."

The person they were quoting turns out to be John Kerry.

[AnneD]

115. because.....

it isn't baseball.

[Hugin]

42. Just exactly -where- are they going to get the substantial amounts of 'private capital' necessary?

And if it's so easy... Why can't I?

If required, I could open a pre-failed bank. Really. I've got the know how.

[antigop]

57. The Carlyle Group? n/t

[DemReadingDU]

85. Cerberus? n/t

[ozymandius]

11. Yale’s Tobin Guides Obama From Grave as Friedman Is Eclipsed (good news!)

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- So long, Milton Friedman. Hello, James Tobin.

After a three-decade run, the free-market philosophies of Friedman that shaped U.S. policy are being eclipsed by the pro- government ideas of Tobin, the late Yale economist and Nobel laureate who brought John Maynard Keynes into the modern era.

Tobin’s stamp is on the $787 billion stimulus signed by President Barack Obama, former students and colleagues say. His philosophies are influencing Austan Goolsbee, a former Tobin student advising Obama, and Ben S. Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve. Unlike Friedman, Tobin provides guidance for today’s problems, said Paul Krugman, a Princeton University economist.

....

Like Keynes, Tobin was an advocate for the role of government in maintaining full employment, said James Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas in Austin. The current economic and financial crisis has validated that philosophy, said Galbraith, a former Tobin student and the son of the late John Kenneth Galbraith, who was a friend of Tobin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajz1hV_afuSQ&refer=exclusive

---

Of course, we can do without the bank whore, Bernanke, as a champion of Tobin and Keynes. The Friedmanites will howl over the repudiation of their bankrupt ideology in the celebration of Tobin. Just read a bit further down the article to glimpse the University of Chicago economists grasping for relevancy.

In sum, I love the James K. Galbraith quote: "Milton Friedman's misfortune is that his policies have been tried."

[amandabeech]

24. Someone needs to tell Geithner, Summers and the rest of the Obama

economic team.

They're acting like Friedman is alive, well and issuing prophecies from the shores of Lake Michigan.

How long before Obama himself wakes up?

[ozymandius]

12. More on the Simply Dreadful Performance of CDOs

from Naked Capitalism:

...
The Financial Times has been keeping tabs on the results, or perhaps more accurately, the lack thereof, of collateralized debt obligations. A couple of weeks ago, it highlighted research by Morgan Stanley and Wachovia that concluded that nearly half the CDOs made from asset backed securities.

Today, Gillian Tett of the FT discusses research on CDOs by JP Morgan and Wachovia. I'm assuming that JP Morgan released an additional study (as opposed to the first article having mistakenly mentioned Morgan Stanley, as opposed to JP Morgan). Tett mentions not only the impressive level of failures, but also the horrid recovery rate.

From the Financial Times:

Just how much should a debt vehicle backed by subprime mortgage bonds be worth these days? Two years ago, most banks and insurance companies assumed the answer was close to 100 per cent of face value – or more...

But as the zeroes relating to writedowns multiply, a peculiar – and bitter – irony continues to hang over these numbers. Notwithstanding the fact that bankers used to promote CDOs as a tool to create more “complete” capital markets, very few of those instruments ever traded in a real market sense before the crisis – and fewer still have changed hands since then.

Thus, the “prices falls” that have blasted such terrible holes in the balance sheets of the banks have not been based on any real market numbers, but on models extrapolated from other measures such as the ABX, an index of mortgage derivatives...

The real shocker, though, is what has happened after those defaults. JPMorgan estimates that $102bn of CDOs has already been liquidated. The average recovery rate for super-senior tranches of debt – or the stuff that was supposed to be so ultra safe that it always carried a triple A tag – has been 32 per cent for the high grade CDOs. With mezzanine CDO’s, though, recovery rates on those AAA assets have been a mere 5 per cent.

---

Point of interest: Guess who personally lobbied for the creation of (foreign currency) derivatives markets that grew into the unregulated economic time bombs of today?

Answer: Milton Friedman.

[Roland99]

17. Oh, but waiving Mark-to-Market will solve all those ills!

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

13. What do You do With a Bunch of Unsold Cars?

I found this over at Angry Bear

CAR manufacturer Toyota has so many unsold cars it has had to charter a ship to store them all.

Toyota said today it had chartered a 2,500-capacity vessel which will simply stand idle in port in Malmo, Sweden.

The vessel, belonging to car-carrier specialist Wallenius Wilhelmsen, is necessary because there is simply no more room to store cars at the Toyota import site in Malmo, the company said.

“We have space for 12,500 cars in Malmo, which acts as a distribution centre for all the Nordic countries,” said Toyota spokesman Etienne Plas. “But we have run out of space. We need the ship to store cars while they are waiting to be delivered. Hopefully we won’t need it for that long.”

[Tansy_Gold]

16. I know where they can put them!

I knew I should have taken a picture of those freight cars out by Arlington, AZ.......




Tansy Gold, who is leaving beautiful, warm sunny, the-flowers-are-just-starting-to-bloom Arizona and heading to Arlington Heights, IL, this afternoon for a nasty, frigid week-end

[Demeter]

21. Remarkably Bad Timing, Tansy. We Are In for Really Foul Weather

[Dr.Phool]

25. Temps finally getting tolerable (for me) in the Carolina's.

I'm heading back to Florida Sunday morning, where the temps are getting cooler again.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. I know. and I don't even have the right clothes for it

this is not a visit of choice -- surprise party for mom's 80th BD. Most of my family doesn't speak to me anyway, so it's not going to be a fun week-end. I'm taking a lot of books.

Tansy Gold, who does not own boots or gloves or thermal underwear.

on edit -- and I don't remember how to drive in snow, ice, or sleet, either.

[tclambert]

65. Drive slowly and gently, Tansy.

No stomping! Leave lots of room. And stay away from my car.

[Tansy_Gold]

78. Are you gonna be in Arlington Heights or Wheeling, IL this week-end?

If not, you're quite safe. I ain't goin' nowhere else!


Tansy Gold, who hates cold

[tclambert]

107. Nah, I'm over by Demeter (well, 30 miles away) so my car should be safe.

When our in-laws from Chandler visit, they always wear sweaters . . . in July. You should actually be OK. The snow is mostly melted. We had a heat wave, for February, a week or so ago that plunged many of the ice fishing shanties into the local lake. Usually in February it's safe to drive cars on the lakes up here (and some ice fishermen do).

[Dr.Phool]

81. Wish her a Happy BD. My dad's 80th is Monday.

I'll be leaving him Monday.

[tclambert]

105. Let Oprah give them away

in return for promotional consideration. "You get a car! You get a car! You all get a car!" Even Oprah might have trouble giving away 12,500 cars.

[Demeter]

116. It's So Crazy It Just Might Work!

Or instead of tax rebates....car!

[ozymandius]

14. Fannie taps lifeline after $59B in losses

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Hammered by the ailing housing market, mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae said Thursday it would tap its lifeline from the Treasury Department after reporting $58.7 billion in losses for 2008.

The company, a crucial source of funding for mortgage lenders, said it would draw down $15.2 billion of its $200 billion federal line of credit. In return, the government will receive preferred shares.

....

The company, which was taken over by the government in September along with Freddie Mac, attributed the losses to soaring defaults. Its provision for credit losses plus foreclosed property expense came to $12 billion for the quarter, up 30% from the previous quarter. Its charge-offs, or loans written off as uncollectable, rose 219% to $7 billion in 2008.

The value of non-performing loans were $119.2 billion at year-end, compared with $63.6 billion on Sept. 30 and $27.2 billion at the end of 2007.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/26/news/companies/Fannie_results/index.htm?postversion=2009022618

---

Somebody has some 'splaining to do.

[Roland99]

15. Donald Trump on CNBC: Taxes on the wealthy are going up significantly

Bemoaning the loss of the mortgage interest deduction and the charitable contribution deduction.

Uhh....wtf is he talking about? Surely those two aren't going away. I've not heard anything about that.

[Demeter]

22. Well, If You Are Foreclosed Upon, There's No More Interest to Deduct...

and if you go bankrupt, you aren't allowed to make charitable contributions...

[RantinRavin]

37. Upper tax brackets only

In order to pay for health care reform, President Barack Obama is proposing to take the axe--or at least the scalpel--to a longtime sacred cow: the mortgage interest deduction. The plan, which was included as part of the president's budget proposal for 2010--unveiled Thursday---would reduce the value of the mortgage interest and other deductions for the nation's highest earners. Taken together, the increases are expected to bring in $318 billion over 10 years.

Here's how The Wall Street Journal described the proposal:

Households paying income taxes at the 33% and 35% rates can currently claim deductions at those rates. Under the Obama proposal, they could deduct only 28% of the value of those payments…

For the 2009 tax year, the 33% tax bracket starts with couples with taxable earnings of $208,850, when adjusted for personal exemptions and various deductible expenses. A taxpayer in the top bracket paying $1,000 of mortgage interest, for example, would see a tax break worth $350 reduced to $280.

[Roland99]

39. Oh, well, obviously that's going to cause the housing market to crash further. Everyone will rent.

:sarcasm:


I'm so sick of the media swallowing whole this "huge tax burden" the top few % are being hit with. Oh gee...an extra 3-4% taxes on anything ABOVE $250,000/yr. In my best year, I made $150,000 and I was living high on the hog. Granted, I didn't have a vacation home, didn't spend winters in the Bahamas or go skiing at Vail...but, seriously, 3-4% on wages above 1/4 million are going to stop people from doing that?

:banghead:

[MattSh]

69. They're not swallowing it,

they're promoting it. Big difference.

[Demeter]

23. Well, boys and Girls, It's Friday Again

And that means another edition of......

WEEKEND ECONOMISTS!


Tune in tonight for Weekend Economists, where the issues of the day are thoroughly dissected, chewed up, spat out, trod upon, etc. In your Editorial Forum!

[Hugin]

41. I'll be there.

:D

Aw, I just noticed Ozy lost the oil and natural gas chart links. Bummer.

[DemReadingDU]

27. NPR - Taxpayer Beware: Bank Bailout Will Hurt

2/27/09 Taxpayer Beware: Bank Bailout Will Hurt
by Adam Davidson and Alex Blumberg

Morning Edition, February 27, 2009 · A single piece of paper may just be one of the most surprising and illuminating documents of the whole banking crisis.

It's a one-page research note from an economist at Deutsche Bank, and it outlines in the clearest terms the kind of solution many bankers are looking for. The basic message: We should forget trying to get a good deal for taxpayers because even trying will hurt.

"Ultimately, the taxpayer will be on the hook one way or another, either through greatly diminished job prospects and or significantly higher taxes down the line," the document says.

In other words, the paper says, if the government tries to save taxpayers money, many people will los their jobs and the whole economy will suffer.

The research note offers a solution any banker would love: The government should "estimate the highest price it can pay for the various toxic assets on financial institution balance sheets." And then pay that price to buy them.

Another economist, Simon Johnson, a professor at the Sloan School of Business at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote about this note on his blog, and he has a word for what this document is.

"This is a robbery note!" Johnson says. "It's saying, 'Guys, either you'll have 20 percent unemployment or national debt will go up to these dangerous level, unless you buy toxic assets — not for what they're worth, not for what the market price is, but as much as you can pay."

The key line of the document says, "The taxpayer will pay one way or another."

"My first reaction was: it's a spoof. My second reaction was: Oh...my…god," Johnson says.

more (and audio too)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101224460

[BB1]

70. Why is it never the other way around?

Banks beware - taypayer bail out will hurt...

[UpInArms]

28. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 88.176 Change +0.338 (+0.43%)

Is The US Contemplating Nationalization And What Does It Mean For The Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Is_The_US_Contemplating_Nationalization_1235710239956.html

Nationalization is a taboo word for investors and policy officials alike. For its own part, the US has taken aggressive steps towards taking a significant or full-ownership stake in major banks and lenders. How far will the US government go and how will it affect a dollar that is considered one of the top safe havens?

Loosely defined as a government body taking control of a private firm and its assets, this act directly contrasts the capitalist and free-market economic ideas that have proliferated around the world. Needless to say, when investors learn that their stake in an equity or debt holding has been rendered worthless, confidence in that economy and its investment opportunities is severely deflated. History has shown that the world’s largest capitalist economies rarely fall back on such options; but over the past year, unprecedented financial shocks and a global recession have called for desperate measures. Recently, some of the world’s largest economies have started to move into indiscernible shades of nationalizing gray as governments place regulations on loaned funds to, buy shares in and even some cases take control of key financial institutions. For its own part, the US has taken aggressive steps towards taking a significant or full-ownership stake in major banks and lenders. How far will the US government go and how will it affect a dollar that is considered one of the top safe havens?

Nationalization – What Have the Euro-zone and UK Done?

Over the past 18 months, a US-borne economic and market crunch has developed into a global one. And, with credit all but vanishing and major financial players teetered on the edge of failure, governments were prompted into action. Initially, the efforts made by officials were through interest rate cuts and expansion of money market operations by central banks. However, with time, conditions deteriorated and measures were expanded to include direct bailouts and guarantees on liabilities. At this point, the specter of nationalization started to take shape. However, before speculation of full-blown government takeovers started to circulate in the US, some of the country’s largest trade partners were already crossing the line.

...more...

Euro Weighed By Inflation Data, U.S. To Increase Stake In Citigroup

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro_Weighed_By_Inflation_Data__1235732877661.html

The Euro started to sell off ahead of the Euro-Zone inflation data as it dropped aver 100 bps to 1.2635 before finding support. Consumer prices in the region fell to 1.1% from 1.6% on lower energy costs. The prices falling further from the ECB’s 2% target bolster’s the case for another rate cut from the central bank. Meanwhile, unemployment in the region rose to a two year high of 8.2% as companies continue to cut costs as expectations rise that the current recession will deepen.

European equity markets were trading lower on the day despite the news that the IMF was sending 24.5 billion Euros in aide which also added to Euro weakness. The troubles of the developing nations has been a concern for the west and remains a weighing factor on the single currency as their economy and banking system are linked. The Euro remains range bound between 1.2500- 1.3000 and we may continue to see choppy trading leading up to the central bank’s rate decision on March 5th.

The pound tumbled over 150 bps before finding support at 1.4150 as Lloyds Banking Group Plc reporting a loss on the HBOS acquisition and hadn’t reached an agreement on the government asset insurance program. Meanwhile, consumer confidence slightly improved to -35 from -39, but the economic climate component fell to a record low. Britons remain sour on the economy and more news of banking troubles will only add to the dour outlook. The BoE is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on March 5th and the central bank will most likely announce that they will begin quantitative easing. Indeed, Governor King expressed the desire to boost then money supply yesterday as it has continued to slow despite the aggressive easing from the central bank. He also calmed fears that such actions would cause future inflationary pressures which could limit upside potential for the pound. Sterling continues to be locked in a range between 1.4150/00 and 1.4500. The 50-Day SMA at 1.4488 continues to provide strong resistance is a level to watch if we see cable appreciation.

The dollar continued to find support overnight as traders as risk aversion continues to be the dominate theme. The actions by the U.S. government have added to traders concerns rather eased their fears. The stress testing of banks has begun and already Citigroup has been asked to generate private capital and change their board of directors as the government intends to raise its stake to 40% in the beleaguered bank. The ultimate fallout from the banking plan is a large unknown and will remaining a reason for traders to remain on the sideline. The second reading for 4Q U.S. GDP will cross the wires today and is expected to be revised lower by 1.6% to -5.4% as the credit freeze stifled growth. Indeed, we saw durable goods orders for December revised lower to -4.6% from -3.0% which should drag the quarterly reading in the initial GDP print down from -7.3%. This could lead the personal consumption component to decline more than the -3.7% that is forecasted by economists. A deeper contraction in the fourth quarter will weigh in expectations for future growth and could increase expectations for more job losses. This would only add to the markets concerns and lend further greenback support.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Ex-Stanford employee warned regulators about fraud (in 2003)

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE51Q06C20090227?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A former Stanford Group Company employee told broker-dealer watchdogs in 2003 that the financial services firm was engaged in fraud, about five years before U.S. securities regulators charged the firm's chairman, Allen Stanford, with an $8 billion fraud.

Leyla Basagoitia, who was fired from Stanford Group Company in 2002, told a broker-dealer arbitration panel that the firm was engaged in a Ponzi scheme, according to a document on the website of broker-dealer watchdog Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

In 2003, Basagoitia and the Stanford Group Company were trying to resolve a loan dispute through an arbitration forum run by a FINRA predecessor.

At the time, Basagoitia told the arbitration panel that before accepting her position at Stanford Group she emphasized that it was not her intent to allocate any of her clients' funds to Stanford Group's offshore bank, Stanford International Bank -- one of the companies named in the government's civil complaint.

She alleged that the firm was engaged in a Ponzi scheme to defraud its clients, where earlier investors are paid with money from later investors.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. FBI makes first arrest in Stanford fraud case

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE51Q0GU20090227?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The FBI made the first arrest in the $8 billion Stanford Financial Group fraud investigation on Thursday, detaining chief investment officer Laura Pendergest-Holt on federal obstruction charges.

The U.S. Justice Department said Pendergest-Holt was to make an initial court appearance before a U.S. magistrate in Houston on Friday after her arrest by FBI agents. The federal criminal probe began in June 2008.

The break could signify that prosecutors are closing in on the group's chairman, Allen Stanford, a Texas billionaire with dual U.S. and Antigua Barbuda citizenship who has been a prominent sponsor of cricket, golf, tennis and polo events.

Stanford is already facing civil charges accusing him of orchestrating a "massive" fraud in the sales of $8 billion in high-interest certificates of deposit issued by the Antigua-based Stanford International Bank.

The Justice Department said Pendergest-Holt concealed her role in and familiarity with the Antigua bank's investments when Securities and Exchange Commission investigators questioned her earlier in February.

<snip>

The complaint details sometimes stormy preparation sessions for Pendergest-Holt in January and February during which the bank's shaky asset base became apparent to a wider circle of officials and to the lawyer -- "Attorney A" -- who later quit.

During those preparations, the complaint said, Pendergest-Holt and other officials learned of the $1.6 billion loan and that $541 million credited as a capital contribution in December 2008 consisted of assets already bought by the bank just months before for $88.5 million.

It described "Executive A" -- Stanford -- as "pounding the table" and insisting "the assets are there."

The next day, February 6, one of the participants broke out crying and threatened to go to the authorities. The attorney declared "the party is over."

...more drama at link...

[radfringe]

33. PA Unemployment

My partner was laid off this week. She filed for unemployment this morning and was told it would take up to 6 weeks to receive the first check.

The reason for taking so long is the unemployment office is overloaded with claims and under-staffed.

first check will be retro-active to the initial claim date

[Roland99]

40. Glad I can file and request checks online.

Request my first check next week.

[radfringe]

43. she can too

and did so - but even with that - the offices are over loaded with new claims and under staffed

[Hugin]

46. Oh, I'm sure the Bank will accept that excuse in-lieu of a Mortgage Payment.

:sarcasm:

Sorry to hear about your partner's troubles. Seriously, something needs to be done to speed up the process. People have got to have the staples.

[fasttense]

61. Under-Staffed?????

With so many people unemployed, they are under-staffed? What working at unemployment office requires specialized advanced degrees?? Hires some freaking people!! Hire some temps to do the admin work!!!

This is unbelievable. It's not like they didn't know more people would be unemployed soon. Temps don't cost that much, use some of the stimulus money. Stupid Republicon bureaucrats.

[DemReadingDU]

89. Exactly. This happened to spouse many years ago in Ohio

State had to make budget cuts, so some people who worked at the unemployment office got laid off.

Edit - This was in the late 70's or early 80s. Unemployment was bad in Ohio back then. When you need more help, the state lays off the helpers. Crazy.

:crazy:

[tclambert]

108. Many states have a hiring freeze on due to budget problems.

Right when you need 'em most.

[Hugin]

49. Consumers lose access to their Experian credit scores (USAToday)

By Kathy Chu, USA TODAY
At a time when it's more important than ever for consumers to monitor their credit scores, they're losing one option of doing so.
Starting Saturday, FICO credit scores based on data from Experian, one of the three major credit bureaus, will not be available to consumers.


MORE NEWS: 5 states challenge employer credit checks

Steven Wagner, president of consumer information services at Experian, says the firm nixed its partnership with Fair Isaac to sell the scores to consumers because Fair Isaac was "simply unreasonable" in negotiating a separate contract.

The development is troubling to some experts because FICO credit scores are widely used — from lenders granting loans to employers making hiring decisions.

"You now have access to 33% less important information you should have access to," says John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education at Credit.com, an educational site. "If you've been declined a loan because of your Experian (FICO) credit score, good luck, because you can't get it."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2009-02-12-credit-scores-fair-isaac-experian_N.htm

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Wow! HOW THE F#($ DID I MISS THIS!

Jeebus! WTF!

The whole credit score thing is a racket anyway... But, now they don't even have to tell a consumer their own magical
fairy-dust number?

:grr:

[nc4bo]

52. Good Gawd, how in the hell can they get away with this?!

I also wonder how long it will take the others to do the same thing.

[Demeter]

88. Just WHY Is It So Important to Monitor One's Credit Scores?

Especially if one has no interest or intention of getting credit for anything?

[AnneD]

113. The FICO is nothing more than an I love debt score.....

and truly not an accurate measurement. I like the fiscal responsibility that Commentator Dave Ramsey preaches (get out of debt, stay out of debt, pay cash). Well this guy is a millionaire several times over. For grins onetime-they ran his FICO score. They ended up telling him that he had a FICO score of ZERO! Like he didn't exist. Guy is a millionaire with a FICO of zero. Frankly-I may not be a knowledgeable loan officer but I would loan this man with a zero FICO before I would give some one with a FICO of 780 or more.

[Demeter]

117. Demeter Is Debt-Free Since 1998

Aside from debts to the family I can never repay...

[Pachamama]

119. That's impressive...

I have often thought to myself how to get to that place and its hard....kudos to you! :hi:

[AnneD]

122. I aspire....

to be like you.

I plan to pay off 2 more debts this year and take a big chunk of the IRS this year too-if not pay off fully. Then, I tackle the last of the student loan. I am think in 4 years or less I too will be debt free. Then I fully fund my emergency fund to 3-6 months and then top off my retirement savings.

Yes old FICO has gone up for me but I am not interested thank you.

[Roland99]

50. DJIA -99 in first minute.

[Hugin]

51. -123.

No chart yet.

[Hugin]

53. C is down approx 0.70 at 1.75. eom

[Roland99]

54. It was as low as about $1.45 in early trading. DJIA -148 now.

[Dr.Phool]

56. BUY,BUY,BUY,BUY,BUY!!!!!

Oops. Meant BYE-BYE.

[Hugin]

59. THANK GAWD IT PASSED!!i!

I never thought that Semi would make it around me... Driving on "Dead Man's" corner and all.

[Hugin]

58. C is at approx (-33.33%). nt

[DemReadingDU]

94. almost a billion shares traded, and it's only noon

Edit - Has any stock ever traded at over a billion shares in one day?


2nd Edit - 12:40pm over a billion shares of Citi traded.
$1.58, down 35.77%

Wow

[DemReadingDU]

118. Citigroup Beats WorldCom, Sets Stock Trading Record

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. set a U.S. record for the most shares traded in a single day, beating the mark set by WorldCom Inc. in 2002, according to the New York Stock Exchange.

Citigroup volume was 1.87 billion as of 4:15 p.m. in New York, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. government agreed to a third rescue attempt today that would cut existing shareholders’ stake in the New York-based bank by 74 percent. Citigroup shares fell 39 percent to $1.50, the lowest closing price since November 1990.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWBLC5pY4eC4&refer=us

[antigop]

62. Major holders of C here...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=C

[Hugin]

64. UpInArms has some commentary on that up thread.

All laced up in a nice BCCI style web.

[DemReadingDU]

82. If Citibank is bankrupt/insolvent/whatever

Then the major holders of Citibank have stock worth 'zero'. Some big mutual funds hold lots of Citibank. Uh oh.

[antigop]

87. Yes, it's not just the Saudis. n/t

[KoKo]

63. So long, Milton Friedman. Hello, James Tobin. (An Excellent Read)

(Whole article is worth a read)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajz1hV_afuSQ&refer=exclusive#


Yale’s Tobin Guides Obama From Grave as Friedman Is Eclipsed

By Oliver Staley and Michael McKee

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- So long, Milton Friedman. Hello, James Tobin.

After a three-decade run, the free-market philosophies of Friedman that shaped U.S. policy are being eclipsed by the pro- government ideas of Tobin, the late Yale economist and Nobel laureate who brought John Maynard Keynes into the modern era.

Tobin’s stamp is on the $787 billion stimulus signed by President Barack Obama, former students and colleagues say. His philosophies are influencing Austan Goolsbee, a former Tobin student advising Obama, and Ben S. Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve. Unlike Friedman, Tobin provides guidance for today’s problems, said Paul Krugman, a Princeton University economist.

“Hard-line doctrines don’t seem very appropriate at this troubled moment,” said Krugman, a New York Times columnist who also worked with Tobin at Yale from 1977 to 1979. “Tobin was never a guru in the way Milton Friedman was; he never had legions of Samurai ready to spring to the defense of his theories, but that’s part of why he is so relevant right now.”

The decision by Bernanke last September to invoke the Fed’s emergency powers and put mortgages and other assets on the central bank’s balance sheet “is pure Tobin,” Krugman said. Bernanke cited Tobin’s 1969 essay on monetary theory in a 2004 paper discussing options available to the Federal Reserve for stimulating the economy when interest rates approach zero.

Tobin’s experience of the depression as a teenager in the 1930s gave him a lifelong loathing of unemployment.

‘Livid’ Response

“As a young professor I did a paper where I analyzed the optimal unemployment rate,” said Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University in New York, who knew Tobin at Yale. “Tobin went livid over the idea. To him the optimal unemployment rate was zero.”

Like Keynes, Tobin was an advocate for the role of government in maintaining full employment, said James Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas in Austin. The current economic and financial crisis has validated that philosophy, said Galbraith, a former Tobin student and the son of the late John Kenneth Galbraith, who was a friend of Tobin.

“It’s clear that the position that the federal government has a responsibility for the level of employment, for the economy, has prevailed,” Galbraith said. “The position that the Fed can walk away from the level of employment has completely collapsed. That was the absolutely dominant position coming out of the University of Chicago.”

In contrast to the Friedman-influenced proponents of tax cuts, deregulation and tight control of the money supply, followers of Tobin are more receptive to government intervention in the economy, including stimulus spending.

-snip-

After Harvard, where he studied under the late Joseph Schumpeter, he spent four years in the U.S. Navy, serving on a destroyer that supported the invasion of North Africa.

Wouk Character

While training to be an officer, he served with Herman Wouk, who later wrote “The Caine Mutiny.” Tobin was Wouk’s model for a character called Tobit, a “mandarin-like midshipman” who had “a domed forehead, measured quiet speech and a mind like a sponge.”

Tobin began teaching at Yale, in New Haven, Connecticut, in 1950, leaving in 1961 and 1962 to serve on the U.S. Council of Economic Advisors under President John F. Kennedy.

At Yale, he put his stamp on generations of economists who studied or taught there. Those include Goolsbee, Krugman, Stiglitz, and Galbraith. Others influenced by Tobin at Yale include Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and creator of the Case/Shiller home price index; Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial collapse; Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; and David Swensen, Yale’s investment manager.

Levin’s Wish

Tobin’s influence on today’s policy makers is still not as powerful as former students would like to see. Richard Levin, the president of Yale, said Tobin would have wanted the stimulus package to create more jobs and contain fewer tax cuts.

“Tobin’s insights are what’s needed right now,” Levin said. “I wish policy makers would listen more carefully to Tobin.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajz1hV_afuSQ&refer=exclusive#

[tclambert]

75. I like Tobin just from this snippet.

"To him the optimal unemployment rate was zero."

Wait, wait. Maybe I disagree. The optimal level is a labor shortage.

No, wait. Got it. The optimal level is two. Not two percent, just two. George W. Bush and Richard "Dick" Cheney.

[Hugin]

67. Denver's Rocky Mountain News shuts doors (CNN)

"(CNN) -- After nearly 150 years in business, the Rocky Mountain News published its final edition Friday, the victim of a bad economy and the Internet generation.

The final front-page headline simply says: "Goodbye, Colorado."

"It is with great sadness that we say goodbye to you today. Our time chronicling the life of Denver and Colorado, the nation and the world, is over."

The paper's owner, E.W. Scripps Co., made the announcement to the newsroom at noon Thursday, ending three months of speculation and drama over its fate. The News had been put up for sale in December.

Rich Boehne, chief executive officer of Scripps, told employees that the newspaper was the victim of a terrible economy, an upheaval in the newspaper industry and multimillion-dollar annual losses.

"Denver can't support two newspapers any longer," Boehne said. "It's certainly not good news for you, and it's certainly not good news for Denver."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/27/rocky.mountain/

______________________________________________________________________________________________

[tclambert]

68. That's quite a discontinuity between the close yesterday and the open today.

Somebody had bad dreams last night.

[UpInArms]

71. Problem U.S. bank list soars to 252

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE51P6KN20090226?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of problem banks on a U.S. watchlist jumped nearly 50 percent to 252 in the fourth quarter and a regulator urged even the healthiest banks to consider halting or cutting dividend payments to preserve capital.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said on Thursday it was the highest number of problem banks since June 1995. It came amid expectations that hundreds of banks could fail in 2009 as the U.S. economy struggles to turn itself around.

The FDIC, which does not release the names of problem banks, said the banks held combined assets of $159 billion. The list is compiled from regulators' confidential assessments of institutions' capital adequacy, asset quality, management, earnings, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said it was unfortunate that some unprofitable banks paid dividends in 2008 and urged even the healthiest U.S. banks to preserve their capital.

At a news conference to release bank industry results for the final quarter of 2008, Bair said the agency had set aside $22 billion for expected payouts by the FDIC insurance fund for bank failures in 2009.

With 14 banks already seized in the first two months of 2009, the agency is expected to close about 100 banks this year, according to industry experts. That would be up from 25 in 2008, and just three in 2007.

As expected, the FDIC issued bleak figures for the fourth quarter. The U.S. banking industry lost a combined $26.2 billion, its first quarterly loss since 1990.

...more...

[antigop]

84. Oh, boy...another one! Idaho Man Accused of Ponzi Scheme

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123574809728594789.html?mod=

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it charged Daren L. Palmer, an Idaho investment manager, with operating an unregistered futures pool, Trigon Group Inc., that the regulator called a Ponzi scheme.

The CFTC said in a news release that Trigon had raised "at least" $40 million from individuals by claiming that it was investing the funds in "a commodity futures pool to trade commodity futures or options on commodity futures contracts."

CFTC release is here:
http://cftc.gov/newsroom/enforcementpressreleases/2009/pr5623-09.html

[Hugin]

91. Has he gone camping yet?

:evilgrin:

[antigop]

92. Oh, Hugin, you make me laugh and I really need it. Thanks. n/t

[Hugin]

96. I'm glad you have a sense of humor.

Otherwise, the SMW would be kind of dry... Y'know.

[tclambert]

109. But how can you NOT laugh at some of this crazy Sh*t?

Madoff under mansion arrest, NINJA loans, the FBI (Fatuous Bloated Idiots) chasing R. Allen Stanford across the country then not arresting him, Republicans offering solutions for the economic disaster they caused by recommending the same things that caused it in the first place. It is a funny old world out there.

And then there's Arizonianian Tansy Gold trying to drive on snow.

[Hugin]

93. FDIC Weighs One-Time ‘Emergency’ Fee on Banks to Boost Reserves (Bloomberg)

By Alison Vekshin and Margaret Chadbourn

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will consider imposing a one-time “emergency” fee and increase regular fees on U.S. banks to replenish a fund for insuring customers’ deposits that’s been drained by a surge in bank failures, the agency said.

FDIC staff members at a board meeting today in Washington will recommend charging banks an “emergency special assessment” in response to an estimate that bank failures could cost the fund $65 billion through 2013, according to a memo outlining the proposal. The added fees are projected to generate $27 billion this year, compared with the $3 billion raised in 2008, the FDIC said.

“Recent and anticipated failures have significantly increased losses to the deposit insurance fund,” the memo said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ardL4JQmxxRc&refer=home

___________________________________________________________________________________

Uh, oh! :o

[DemReadingDU]

101. FDIC could be forced to borrow money from taxpayers

2/27/09 Bank Failures Take Toll on Insurance Fund

By Binyamin Appelbaum
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 27, 2009; Page D02

The federal insurance fund that protects most bank deposits is being drained by a sharp rise in bank failures and has dwindled to its lowest level since 1993, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported yesterday.

Depositors are not at risk because the fund is backed by the government, but taxpayers could be forced to reach into their wallets if the decline continues.

When a bank fails, the FDIC pays up to $250,000 to each account-holder to replace whatever money does not remain in the vaults. The fund is replenished by assessments on banks, but over the last year, much more money left than arrived. And the pace of bank failures continues to increase.

The fund held $52.4 billion at the beginning of 2008. One year and 25 bank failures later, the fund held $18.9 billion.

So far this year, 14 banks have failed, draining another $1.7 billion from the insurance fund.

The FDIC's board is scheduled to vote this morning on increasing the quarterly assessment that banks must pay. The board also could vote to impose a one-time special assessment to replenish the fund more quickly. FDIC officials declined to say yesterday how large an increase was likely.

If money cannot be collected quickly enough from the industry, the FDIC could be forced to borrow money from taxpayers by taking a loan from the Treasury Department.

more...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/26/AR2009022603005.html?hpid=topnews


Uh Oh! :o

[Robbien]

95. Pay Per Pee

Ryanair to charge passengers to use restrooms.





When ya gotta go, ya gotta pay.

Dublin-based discount airline Ryanair (RYAAY) may charge passengers one pound (about $1.40) to use the lavatory when in flight - or, as they say on the far side of the pond, folks may have “to spend a pound to spend a penny.” ("Spend a penny" is British slang for, well, never mind.)

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21357

[antigop]

98. They'll quickly change that policy the first time someone pees all over the cabin n/t

[Dr.Phool]

99. Fee's are getting really stoopid and dishonest.

I booked a flight on Allegiant this week, from Clearwater-St. Pete to Wilmington, NC for $19 each way. It should total $38, right?

Wrong. Add in convenience fee, for booking online. Seat selection fee-each way. Segment fee. Security fee. And more, not to mention $25 for your first checked bag, and $35 for each additional bag.

[tclambert]

111. "So sorry, exact change only. And no American or Canadian coins."

"Perhaps you'd be good enough to hold it until we land? There's a good lad."

[AnneD]

114. I remember saying -as a joke....

when the airlines were fee happy that a toilet fee wouldn't be far behind:spray:
And I didn't even channel Jimmy.

And just think how everyone laughed at the astronaut that wore adult diapers on her trip to Florida. She wasn't crazy, just ahead of her time.

[Roland99]

97. GE to reduce dividend from $0.31/quarter to $0.10/quarter

CNBC now reporting. This will reportedly save GE $9 billion annually.

This is going to hurt my Dad a fair amount. ARGH! I wish he'd listened to me last year and pulled his pension out of GE stock!

[DemReadingDU]

102. Mike Larson: Three market developments keeping me up at night

2/27/09 Three market developments keeping me up at night by Mike Larson

I’m a worrier by nature. I can’t help it. My job is to peer around the corner, figure out what’s next, and most importantly, discern what can really go WRONG in the economy and the markets.

And right now, I see three troubling developments that are keeping me up at night. These problems aren’t front-page news … yet. But they are circling in the background and threatening to explode into the headlines — derailing the market in the process. I suggest you sit up and take notice. I sure am.

Troubling Development #1 —
Credit quality is worsening … and I’m not talking about home mortgages or credit cards
more...

Troubling Development #2 —
Eastern Europe melting down
more...

Troubling Development #3 —
Rapid deterioration in commercial real estate continues apace
more...

more
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/three-market-developments-keeping-me-up-at-night-3-29913

[DoBotherMe]

104. U.S. Market Summary from Yahoo

Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 7,094.55
Trade Time: 3:55pm ET
Change: 1.22 (0.02%)
Prev Close: 7,102.37
Open: 7,180.97
Day's Range: 7,033.62 - 7,195.30
52wk Range: 7,077.35 - 13,191.50

NASDAQ Composite(Nasdaq: ^IXIC)
Index Value: 1,383.66
Trade Time: 3:57pm ET
Change: 7.81 (0.56%)
Prev Close: 1,391.47
Open: 1,376.56
Day's Range: 1,372.42 - 1,401.97
52wk Range: 1,295.48 - 2,551.47

S&P 500 INDEX,RTH(SNP: ^GSPC)
Index Value: 737.52
Trade Time: 3:56pm ET
Change: 15.31 (2.03%)
Prev Close: 740.11
Open: 749.93
Day's Range: 734.52 - 751.27
52wk Range: 741.02 - 1,440.24

10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE(Chicago Options: ^TNX)
Index Value: 3.04
Trade Time: 2:59pm ET
Change: 0.0630 (2.12%)
Prev Close: 2.978
Open: 2.932
Day's Range: 2.92 - 3.05
52wk Range: 2.038 - 4.324

Dana ; )

[TheWatcher]

106. If we could see Bernanke's Inbox we'd probably find something like this

Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:03:20 -0000
Message-ID: <[e-mail]>
From: "Fairy Hank" <[e-mail]>
To: [e-mail]
Subject: Price Setting Adjustment Progress Report Friday February 27, 2009
MIME-Version: 1.0


Chairman,

This is to inform you that today's Price Setting Adjustment operation initiated at 3:20 PM to set floor for Market at 7100 was NOT SUCCESSFUL.

However, Secondary Price Setting Measure to preserve 7000 Level was successful.

Please send new Price Adjustment Requests for Monday, March 2nd by 3PM Sunday, March 1, so that Overnight Futures can be coordinated.

Also, please see our request sent on 2/25/09 for extra Servers, as the difficulty of Market Adjustment has increased because of deteriorating conditions.

Regards,

Hank

[DemWynner]

110. Here is your Faerie

It was working so hard, it burned out!
I was afraid that it would go below 7000 today. I think once it hits that mark, things will be really, really bad. I hope the faeries have enough in them to do their magic on Monday. Have a great weekend!

[TheWatcher]

112. People have to understand though that the Fairies are actually causing much more harm than good.

By creating an artificial environment with constant rigging and manipulation, it is actually making conditions worse and causing dislocations that turn out to be worse than if the Market had been allowed to trade freely.

All of this artificial support is not accomplishing anything positive, and it never has. If anything it's making the outcome of the consequences caused by the extreme moral hazard and corruption in the Markets even worse than they would have been.

The only thing this is doing is delaying the inevitable.

You can't have real investment, or any kind of real foundation for actual growth when the environment is so artificial that no Free Market Mechanisms exist.

Besides, what is happening in the Stock Market in no way reflects the reality of the consequences for Main Street. Things are going to get very bad regardless of how the "Markets" are manipulated. Even if they somehow jammed this thing back above 10000, the consequences of the economic fallout for you and me would not change.

The only thing they are doing at this point is trying to preserve their own treasure, and transfer what's left of ours to themselves, while keeping us pacified with Propaganda and Shell Games.

You have a good weekend too. :)

The times we are experiencing may be bleak, but we WILL make it through them, despite the best efforts of TPTB.

At least, That's my plan. :)

[UpInArms]

120. closing numbers - read 'em and weep

Dow 7,062.93 119.15 (1.66%)
Nasdaq 1,377.84 13.63 (0.98%)
S&P 500 735.09 17.74 (2.36%)
10-Yr Bond 3.041% 0.063

NYSE Volume 9,972,516,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,545,117,500

4:35 pm : The government is taking a major stake in Citigroup, GE is slashing its dividend, and fourth quarter GDP readings show the economy contracted at its sharpest rate since 1982. Those headlines led to some very choppy trading and pushed the S&P 500 and the Dow to their lowest intraday and closing levels since 1997.

A rather bearish close to the prior session, in which the stock market declined roughly 1.6%, left market participants in a dour mood. The pessimistic tone was exacerbated when Citigroup (C 1.50, -0.96) announced it is offering common shares for up to $27.5 billion in existing preferred equity. The government will exchange a maximum of $25 billion face value of its preferred stock, which gives the government a 36% stake in the company.

Reports earlier in the week indicated the government was in talks with Citigroup, so the announcement wasn't a total surprise. However, news that Citi is suspending dividends on common shares and its preferred shares came as a real disappointment.

Though transaction is expected to increase Citigroup's tangible common equity, which will help it absorb future losses, Standard & Poor revised its outlook for Citi to Negative. Moody's lowered Citi's long-term ratings.

Economic bellwether General Electric (GE 8.51, -0.59) slashed its quarterly dividend to $0.10 per share from $0.31 per share. The dividend cut is expected to save the company some $9 billion annually, according to reports. The cut will also help protect GE's AAA credit rating.

Analysts were anticipating the dividend cut, given the troubles and challenges facing GE's capital unit. Because of the unit's exposure to capital markets the stock has traded similar to financial stocks even though the company is an industrial stock.

In turn, GE's weakness caused the industrial sector to fall 2.7% this session, but 18.0% this month. Financial stocks dropped 7.4% this session, and 18.4% in February. They weren't alone; all 10 sectors in the S&P 500 finished lower for the session and for the month.

Broad-based selling pushed all three major indices lower for the session. The S&P 500 closed near its worst levels of the session.

Earnings reports did little to bolster investor sentiment during the session. Gap (GPS 10.79, -0.56) and Kohl's (KSS 35.14, +0.44) both posted relatively disappointing quarterly results, and Dell (DELL 8.53, +0.32) reported lower diluted earnings per share.

Economic data remains gloomy. Fourth quarter GDP was revised lower to reflect an annual rate of -6.2% versus a previously estimated -3.8%. The decrease in fourth quarter activity primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment. To little surprise, government spending provided a positive contribution.

A consistent flow of negative headlines has left pessimism largely unchecked as traders continue to bet against stocks. The bet seems to have paid off for bearish bets since February marked the worst monthly performance for each of the major indices since October.

More than 2 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session. That's the most since December.DJ30 -119.15 NASDAQ -13.63 SP500 -17.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1082/2.15 bln/1593 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/2.15 bln/2057