Two Tales of American Jobs

[papau]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/business/yourmoney/22view.html

ECONOMIC VIEW
Two Tales of American Jobs
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS


<snip>The puzzle is the enormous divergence between the two surveys that are used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure job creation and unemployment. The payroll survey, which is based on a monthly poll of 400,000 employers, shows a loss of more than two million jobs since 2001. The household survey, based on questions posed to people in 50,000 households, shows an increase of more than 500,000 jobs over the same period.<snip>

The household survey also seems to support a political theory: that many people dropped from the company payrolls are not unemployed but rather self-employed. While the payroll survey suggests economic malaise, the household survey implies entrepreneurial energy.<snip>
Unfortunately for the optimists, the Federal Reserve has just thrown cold water on the household data. It concludes that the gloomy payroll data is essentially accurate and that the household survey is probably off base.<snip>

The Fed's conclusion was that the household survey's results have been inflated by overestimates of population growth.<snip>

Indeed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics lowered its population estimate in January. Plugging the new estimate into the previous household surveys, the bureau found nearly half the apparent increase in jobs during the last three years vanished.<snip>

[BR_Parkway]

1. No one is factoring in the Reserve & Guard member vacancies

The household survey, based on questions posed to people in 50,000 households, shows an increase of more than 500,000 jobs over the same period.


Of course the numbers won't match up. We have lost jobs (permanent), but in some cases there are people working who weren't working before (temporary). That's because they are no longer eligible for unemployment since they are temporarily filling these vacancies caused by the National Guard being activated. By law, the employer has to hold their job, but needs to fill it in the meantime so that the work gets done. When we bring the troops home, there is going to be a massive spike in unemployment numbers again.

[papau]

2. I agree - military employment will decrease over time.

unless our budget deficit is to get even bigger!

[Mountainman]

3. I heard on the radio today, that fed government adds to the outsourcing

I don't know if it is true but the commentator said that the federal government's privatizing government jobs allows the private contractor to outsource the work to foreign countries. That means that a job that was done by a government worker could now be done by someone in India.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. Unemployment is bad and is getting worse

Is it possible that the chimp administration justifies the lies about improving economy as simple wartime propaganda?

In the 70's we had recession

In the mid 80's we had cheap oil and the personal computer to pull us out of recession

In the mid 90's we had cheap oil and the internet to pull us out of recession

In 00's we have nothing.