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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:37 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 8
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 8, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 3

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 7, 2009

Dow... 8,163.60 -161.27 (-1.98%)
Nasdaq... 1,746.17 -41.23 (-2.31%)
S&P 500... 881.03 -17.69 (-1.97%)
Gold future... 929.10 +4.80 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.45 -0.05 (-1.37%)
30-Year Bond 4.31 -0.05 (-1.10%)




U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES


Market Conditions During Trading Hours



GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver



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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. Arrrgh! Computer problems!
No images. Script errors due to low memory! What low memory? I can see that there's plenty on my gauges.

Back in a bit. I will try a reboot.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. So I've bought a new computer.
The one I am using to type right now is ten years old. I've kept it going for the past few years with software and hardware upgrades and add-ons over the years to optimize the operation of the venerable old Dell XPS T450. Yes. My CPU still clocks in megahertz. :blush: This Frankenstein monster will take on a new life when the new computer arrives. I will make this a Linux box. If the install is successful then this Dell will be given away.

The new computer is a Mac. It has more than everything necessary for what I do with a computer. At least I will not have to worry about running low on virtual memory and RAM. HD space is not an issue either.

This great old Dell (made when Dell was still great) has been wonderful. But it's time. It has been very difficult to work with over the past few weeks. Upgrades, even as a fun project, are impossible anymore.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:16 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. You Need to Upgrade The Size of Your Sledge Hammer, Oxy
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:28 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. A sledgehammer would be more useful some days.
I've spent the last penny on this machine. But honestly, it's been great these years. It's had three operating systems (all Windows: from Win 98SE to Win 2K for one day - and now running XP SP3), lots of additional RAM, new ethernet card and new CD/DVD-RW drives.

All the while, it has performed like a champ. The past two weeks' performance have been really troublesome. There's much that I would like to get done but cannot. The task for me now is to backup the last little bit of data not already burned to disc and wait for the new machine.
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CatholicEdHead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #14
82. Maybe it just needs a fresh reinstall
All PCs accumulate "digital junk" as you use it on a daily basis. Ideally you reformat to a clean image once a year to keep it snappy. Linux is fast to begin with and the machine will probably be as fast as the new Mac.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #7
24. Let me know how your Linux upgrade goes.
I put together a new system last month, after lightning fried my motherboard. I installed 2 hard drives, and installed Ubuntu on one of them, just so I could figure out Linux. Evidently, they don't have drivers for my graphics card yet, and it's a pain in the ass to get started.

Once I get Linux figured out, I'm dropping Windoze for good.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:45 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. I sure will.
I will get some help with the install. A friend of mine was a Mindspring techie about ten years ago. He dumped Windblows a year ago with his Ubuntu install. He never looked back. I figure my switchover will be done in about a week.
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alterfurz Donating Member (723 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #7
47. "once you go Mac you never go back"
Me & everyone I know who's switched say so!--I boldly predict you will love your new machine.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #7
52. Not too long ago...
I resurrected my Compaq Presario laptop... I bought it on an "open-box" special. Oh, at least 10 years ago. It had been the display unit for that model at one of the Big Box electronics stores.

Originally, it was XP.

Poor thing... It's had a hard life. :/

But, it still sucked up Fedora 11 like it was born to it! :D

I can't easily get RAM upgrades/increases for it anymore... So, I had to add a humongous swap space. Seemed to do the trick. Also, most applications are now on the edge of being too graphically intensive for it and it's built in graphics sector. But, I plan on nursing it along as much as possible. I'm going to look into these light weight netbook type window managers... That may help me keep the display going for awhile.

For now... It's all-systems-GO! :thumbsup:
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #1
62. I had to use system restore this morning
and now Firefox won't load.

Something wicked this way comes, I think.

However, enjoy the new box even though you'll be like somebody moved your food dish for at least the next couple of months.

I'm vaguely tempted to switch this out with the backup box.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. CFTC prepares crackdown on speculators (COMMODITIES)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/958cd848-6ae5-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html

By Joanna Chung in New York and Miles Johnson in London

Published: July 7 2009 12:11 | Last updated: July 8 2009 00:35

New trading curbs to clamp down on excessive speculation in oil and other commodities are being examined by US regulators in a signal of a tougher approach to oversight of these markets.

Gary Gensler, new chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the futures regulator, said the agency would decide whether federal speculative limits should be set on “all commodities of finite supply”, in particular oil, natural gas and energy commodities.

The move marks a stark departure from the agency’s more hands-off approach in the past and comes amid growing momentum in Washington towards tighter regulation across financial markets. The CFTC will hold hearings in July and August.

The role of financial investors in commodities markets has been under scrutiny since last year when some lawmakers blamed speculative demand – by hedge funds, pension funds and other institutional investors who invest through index funds – for exaggerating price swings.

Many blamed “excessive speculation” for a 45 per cent surge in oil prices in the first seven months of 2008. The price of US West Texas Intermediate hit a record high of $147 a barrel before falling 73 per cent by the end of the year.

Mr Gensler told the Senate this year that commodity index funds and other investors had “participated in the commodity asset bubble” in 2008. Since the start of March, oil prices have risen more than 60 per cent, a move caused in part by speculators looking to gain exposure to any sharp rebound in business activity, according to market participants. on Tuesday, oil closed below $63 a barrel, and has dropped 14 per cent over the past month as investors fear that a weak economic recovery will reduce demand for energy.

The CFTC does set position limits with respect to some agricultural products, but not energy markets. “This different regulatory approach to position limits for agriculture and other physically delivered commodities deserves thoughtful review,’’ said Mr Gensler.

The CFTC would also take steps “in the near term,’’ to reveal more details about the positions of types of traders. Activities of dealers in swaps – private contracts between investment banks and clients – and hedge funds would be separated out from the category of traders in the weekly Commitments of Traders reports.

But some said talk of new limits failed to tackle core problems. “We should be looking at the root causes of commodities spikes, and it is not the speculators,’’ said Axel Merk of Merk Investments.

OF COURSE IT ISN'T. WHAT WERE WE THINKING? :sarcasm:
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #2
28. They blame the plunge on speculation?
What about the record high prices? No speculation there, huh?
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #2
63. It's not speculation? It's probably not even the Enron Loophole
that made such speculation irresistible to the big money guys.

It seems like we the people are the real problem, paying those high prices but getting into the habit of conserving so that now there's a glut and they're having a real problem jacking those spot market prices back up to the stratosphere.

I mean, how dare we? Unless we play ball, they can't make money!
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #63
69. Every day, I hang my head ashamed to think of how
My household refuses to buy things we used to, just to show those damn speculaters what we think of them thar speculatin'.

Of course, maybe our household having so much less money has something to do with it too...




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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #69
84. My income is holding steady
and is twice what I need, well usually when I can stay out of the hospital, but I just got too used to being poor.

I know, it's terrible not to be holding up my corner of the consumer marketplace, but honestly, this is a very small house and it's seriously stuffed to bursting with thrift store stuff I actually like. I can't imagine going to a furniture store to get matchy matchy stuff and let this stuff go back to the thrift shop with a few more years' wear on it.

I suppose I am a traitor, Stupid being out of office and my still not spending like a meth head with a stolen credit card. I'll have to leave that to the Republicans. They seem to do it so much better than I.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #84
85. We have gotten into barter
Since the damn thrift store refused to do car maintenance for us!

The thrift stores around here - Uppity little types that only want to sell us perfectly good clothing and perfectly good housewares, and often antiques that are worth ten times what they charge us.

Got genuine 14 carat gold plated silverware - place setting for four (including the salad fork) - for $ 7.50
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #85
88. Do you want a set of 6 gold plated canape forks with that?
I inherited them and I'm long past the canape stage.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:03 AM
Response to Original message
3. They Called Me Nobody in the Washington Post Again--Dean Baker
Edited on Wed Jul-08-09 06:04 AM by Demeter
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press



I suppose I should expect to get trashed in the WAPO after calling them Fox on 15th all the time. Still, economist Mark Zandi's comment that: "the economy has been measurably worse than anyone expected," should not go unchallenged. It may have been worse than he expected, or the economists with whom talked regularly expected, but some of us were not at all surprised by the severity of the downturn.

The problem is not that economists are always surprised by the economy. The problem is that the media tend to rely almost exclusively on those who are.

.........................

The Timing of the Stimulus' Impact

The economists who missed the housing bubble seem to be having a hard time understanding the timing of the stimulus. While the vast majority of the money has not yet been spent, the economy has already felt the bulk of its impact.

The reason is simply, more than 60 percent of the stimulus takes the form of lower tax rates and higher benefit levels for programs like unemployment insurance. The lower tax rates and higher benefit levels already went effect at the start of the spring. This means that people already have higher take-home pay or government benefit checks. The stimulus will not increase further in future months, which means that there is no reason to expect spending to increase further.

More than a quarter of the remaining stimulus is devoted to state and local government stabilization funds. This spending will limit the cutbacks at the state and local level, but will not lead to additional growth. The remaining funds are projected to be spent out at an $80 billion annual rate over the course of 2010.

Even if we assume that we are starting from zero spending at the moment, this is boost of just over 0.5 percent of GDP. By contrast, the collapse of housing construction trimmed $450 billion or 3.0 percentage points of GDP from annual demand. The decline in consumption due to the loss of bubble wealth is in the range of $600 billion to $800 billion a year.

In other words, the remaining stimulus is an order of magnitude too small to give much of a boost to the economy. Economists who know arithmetic would be aware of this fact.

.............



The Chinese are Morons Argument

The argument that China is worried that it will lose money on its dollar holding because of a fall in the value of the dollar implies that the Chinese are morons. There can be no doubt that the dollar will fall and that the Chinese will lose money on their dollar holdings. The only thing that keeps the dollar from falling now is the decision by the Chinese government to buys hundreds of billions of dollars a year. Of course China can keep the dollar from ever falling as long as it is prepared to buy ever more dollars, just as it could have kept shares of Pets.com at $100 if it continually bought more shares. (By the way, the dollar will fall because of our trade deficit, not the budget deficit. If we had the same trade deficit and the budget was in surplus by $1 trillion a year, the dollar would still fall.)

The only plausible story for China's buying of vast amounts of dollars is to support its export market to the United States. It could do much better investing its surplus in euros, yen, or almost any other currency in the world or just about any commodity. China knows it will take a bath, arguing otherwise is saying that the Chinese leadership is stupid. That view may be taken seriously by David Brooks, but it need not trouble serious people.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. The class-conscious diet BY DAVE BARRY
Edited on Wed Jul-08-09 06:07 AM by Demeter
http://www.miamiherald.com/living/columnists/dave-barry/story/1108508.html



My favorite part of The New York Times (motto: ''No Longer Making Things Up, As Far As We Know'') is a weekly section that reports on things that trendy New Yorkers are doing. This section is called Sunday Styles, because it would be rude to come right out and call it Rich Twits on Parade....

JUST DOING MY COMEDIENNE SHTICK WHILE OZY REASONS WITH HIS COMPUTER...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
5. US consumer delinquencies hit new highs
Edited on Wed Jul-08-09 06:11 AM by Demeter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c37761fe-6afb-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html

By Alan Rappeport in New York

Published: July 7 2009 14:57 | Last updated: July 7 2009 14:57

Soaring unemployment has pushed credit card and home-equity delinquencies to record levels as US consumers struggle with the loss of income, household wealth and sputtering investments, the American Bankers Association said on Tuesday.

Delinquencies on all consumer loans rose to 3.23 per cent of all accounts in the first three months of the year, bringing them to the highest level since 1980. ABA defines a delinquency as an account that is more than 30 days past due.

“The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss,” James Chessen, ABA’s chief economist said. “When people lose their jobs, they can’t pay their bills.

Such consumers are leaning more heavily on their credit cards and the equity in their homes. In the first quarter bank card delinquencies have jumped to 4.75 per cent of all accounts from 4.52 per cent in the previous quarter.

Delays are also leading to swollen balances. On delinquent credit card accounts, overdue balances now account for a record 6.6 per cent of all outstanding bank card debt, leading credit card companies to try to recoup losses by raising interest rates and minimum payments.

In June, Citigroup sharply increased interest rates on up to 15m US credit card accounts just months before curbs on such rises come into effect. And JPMorgan Chase said that, from August, some of its customers would see their minimum required payments rise from 2 per cent to 5 per cent of their unpaid monthly balances.

The stricken US housing market, which has seen home values plunge by as much as 30 per cent from the 2006 peak, has also pushed home-equity loan delinquencies higher. According to ABA, late payments on home-equity loans are up to 3.52 per cent of all accounts and delinquencies on home-equity lines of credit hit 1.89 per cent. Both are fresh record highs.

“Even if home prices stop falling later this year, unemployment will keep home equity delinquencies high for some time,” Mr Chessen said.

Last week the labour department said that the US economy shed another 467,000 jobs in June, bringing the unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.5 per cent. Most economists predict the jobless rate to reach 10 per cent this year, before retreating by the end of 2010.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:43 AM
Response to Reply #5
27. Sometimes economists say the darnest things.
“The number one driver of delinquencies is job loss,” James Chessen, ABA’s chief economist said. “When people lose their jobs, they can’t pay their bills."


:banghead:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #27
37. Give that man an ass-shaped crown.
Gods help us if this fool shapes public policy.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:51 AM
Response to Reply #27
46. Morning Marketeers...
:donut: and lurkers. Another DUH moment. Are these economist impaired in some way that I am not aware of?

Well, the new car fever must have been the 24 hour viral kind. We took the old car to the mechanic and he said we have 6 more good years. So we are not in the car buying mood now. If hubby gets laided off and has a longer commute-it will be considered. So what did we do with some of the cash we saved to make a down payment? We applied it to the back end of the loan that we took out last year for Leila's back brace. Two more months of throwing extra money at it should pay it off. Then we tackle the IRS. We are guessing 6 months. Then we go after the student loan. We are figuring another 2 years conservative and we will be totally out of debt. It is so nice to begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

The good part of this new car fever is that Hubby and I really focused on our finances and got on the same page. I have battled low grade depression for most of this year and the thought of going into debt further really sent me into a tail spin. It has been difficult to get and keep Hubby on the same page. I came into the marriage with more debt (Divorce debt, child support taking 1/2 of my take home, student loan for Nursing education, and IRS screwing me over with a head of household deductions-it is easier to go after us single moms than off shore tax shelters of the well heeled). We split bills but mine were proportionately higher-and fairly so. He paid his stuff off quicker and saved to start his shoestring business. While I was happy about it, I was resentful that I was working hard and getting out of debt so slowly. The breaking point came when he wanted to get a new car and expected me to pay half. At first, I just blew up and lashed out. It took me a few days to figure out why I got so anger then depressed. Once I figured it out, we had one of those really good conversations that married couples should have more often. I told him that this debt was like stones on my chest. It was literally suffocating me-sapping all my joy. I was working harder at school, creeping along in getting out of debt and then he was wanting to add more stones? Well, we came to an agreement. My debts are our debts now and they are at the top of the list. Just that idea alone went a long way to make me a happier person. We came to an amount for him to keep in his personal account. I keep a larger household emergency account (1K at the bank to cover account emergencies, and 1K at home for immediate emergencies). We keep these filled first at all times. The remainder is budgeted then any extra is thrown on bills. Believe it or not, we do have extra. We could have more extra if we tightened up more but we want to be flexible not constraining. We decided to consult on things over $100, which tends to keep the spending down. It may be a bit crazy but it is working for us. When it comes to money, Hubby and I are more alike than different.

Well, I am burning up daylight and it ain't gonna get any cooler here so I better get going. I'll check in later.
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #46
54. A Marriage that Works--You Are an Inspiration to Us All!
Good job!
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #54
72. The secret to our success so far....
We knew each other as friends for years before we married.
We talked about everything before we got married(finances, religion, kids, family)
We went in to the marriage with the knowledge that we would not divorce (our first divorces were too painful and expensive).
When we have an argument-we fight fair. We reflect on the reasons why we reacted the way we did. We are old enough to forgive ourselves and each other other,
We realize that at the end of the day, we respect each other and we achieve more togather than apart.
As of Wed. July 8th, 2:50 , we are still happily married.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #46
75. I've been riding my new (refurbished) bike to work lately.
Stuck my tongue out at a Marathon gas station the other day. Put new tires on the bike. Bought a helmet and a lock. Two weeks later, I can finally ride it in the highest gear. I decided the shortest route to work was not the best because it goes right by the lake, which by some coincidence is in a low spot. That means steeper hills. If I go by a slightly longer route, it's as flat as Kansas. I figure the gasoline cost to drive to work and back is about $2 per day. The bike should pay for itself in a couple of months. If it helps me lose weight, then it's priceless.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #75
86. Good on ya mate.....
Because of the geography of where I live...I am unable to to bike-otherwise I would. I took the bus when I knew I wouldn't have to drive. If I get the other school, I will check it out. Houston is great on the park and ride-and they are making progress in light rail, but we just really don't have good lateral movement. From the suburbs to down town are great-but anything else still sucks....it takes too long-an unreasonable amount of time. Our local alternative news paper did an article about a bike rider (who smoked) in a race against a new Quickline. The bike rider won.:-(
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #27
73. Wait, if people lose their jobs, doesn't the socialist government just give them welfare?
And then tax small business men, especially plumbers, to pay for it. I'm sure I heard some Republican explain it that way, with quavering outrage in his voice. By the way, how much are we paying in corporate welfare this year?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:13 AM
Response to Original message
6. Stanford lashes out at federal prosecutors
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/083fa1b6-6b0b-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html

By Stacy-Marie Ishmael in New York

Published: July 7 2009 16:43 | Last updated: July 7 2009 16:43

Sir Allen Stanford, accused by the US of defrauding investors of $7bn, has lashed out at federal prosecutors who he said were depriving him of his constitutional rights.

In court documents filed late on Monday, Sir Allen’s criminal attorney said the ongoing freeze on the businessman’s personal assets has stymied them from mounting a defence against the civil and criminal charges brought by US officials.

”The government’s unfettered, and thus far successful, attempts to prevent Mr. Stanford from being able to mount a defence in his criminal proceedings amount to a deprivation of both his Sixth Amendment right to counsel and his Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination,” attorney Dick DeGuerin argued in in the filing.

Sir Allen’s assets, along with those of his eponymous financial empire, have been frozen since February, when the US Securities and Exchange Commission first accused the Texan of operating a massive fraud.

The financier filed a request in April asking judge David Godbey, who is presiding over the civil case, to release $10m in funds to facilitate the payment of legal fees.

Judge Godbey replied to - and denied - that request last week, saying Sir Allen had “not shown that he has $10m dollars, or any lesser amount, in personal assets untainted by potential fraud.”

But he said he would consider a “modest” request for funds “for attorneys’ and/or accountants’ fees for the limited purpose of aiding to demonstrate the existence of personal assets unrelated to and untainted by the alleged fraud.”

Monday’s filing was directed at judge David Hittner, who is presiding over the 21-count criminal indictment against Sir Allen. Mr DeGuerin told the judge at a hearing last month that he had yet to be paid for his services.

Sir Allen, who is currently in custody in Texas pending trial, has pleaded not guilty to all the charges against him.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:15 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Libya invested at least $500m with Stanford
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff32d3ee-6b2e-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html

By Stacy-Marie Ishmael in New York

Published: July 7 2009 20:59 | Last updated: July 7 2009 23:36

The Libyan government invested at least $500m with Sir Allen Stanford, the Texas businessman accused by the US government of operating a $7bn Ponzi scheme, court documents filed on Tuesday show.

Sir Allen, accompanied by his girlfriend Andrea Stoelker, flew to Tripoli in a private jet on January 25 this year to meet government officials, including Mohamed Layas, identified in the documents as the chief executive of the Libyan Investment Authority.

At the time the Libyan government had invested $500m with Sir Allen and his companies, the documents showed, although they did not say in what form or when.

The meetings were chronicled by Ms Stoelker in a sworn statement included as an appendix to court documents filed to Judge David Hittner, who is presiding over the criminal case.

The two-day trip to Tripoli followed meetings in October 2008 between Sir Allen and Abdulhafid Zlitni, identified in one document as secretary of planning for the Libyan government.

“Dr Zlitni was primarily interested in developing Libya’s tourism industry but was also considering investing a larger portion of the country’s cash reserves with Stanford,” Ms Stoelker said in the statement.

SIR ALLEN MUST HAVE A DEATH WISH...
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
10. Market Observation
Tangible Proof
by Frank Barbera


Over the last few months, markets have enjoyed a strong recovery on the hope that an economic recovery would take shape. For much of this time period, markets have been content to observe economic data which has improved moderately, or in some cases, simply failed to get much worse. This so-called, ‘second derivative’ phenomenon is something we have written about regularly, and written about as far back as December 2nd of 2008. In that article, we focused on the ISM Purchasing Managers Index and an oscillator we created using that gauge stating:

“Assuming that the entire first quarter is below –15.00, and possibly April (heading into tax season—always a slow time of year) we could see this ISM gauge residing below –15.00 in May, possibly even June of 2008. However, it is most unlikely that it will reside below –15.00 much longer then May/June 2008 which would match the longest ‘sub –15.00’ readings on record. That means that a “recovery” of some sort is very likely to begin taking shape during the second half of 2009, and that recovery will probably last at least 12 months on a statistical basis, as way too many economic gauges are at the stock market equivalent of “deeply oversold.”
At this time it appears that going forward, instead of the data simply not getting any worse, the markets will increasingly demand to see tangible improvement, proof that things are in fact getting better. As it happens, to date there is virtually no evidence that a material change for the better is underway. As a result, markets have entered correction mode which was predictable given the huge overshoot on the upside seen in recent weeks. In my view, the odds are high that on the corporate front, the rally of the last few months has been about “hope” for improved results, and has been largely predicated on huge cost cutting steps implemented throughout the corporate world. In the weeks ahead we may see a market that softens further as it becomes clear the tangible proof the markets want to see in both earnings and economic figures is not immediately at hand. Still, cost cutting within corporate America has been exceptionally deep, and as we get later in the year, easier EPS comparisons with a terrible Q3 and Q4 2008 could once again lift stocks to moderately higher highs. As we see it, the problem at that point is then most likely going to be a lack of ‘top-line’ growth. This is where the “New Normal” kicks in, as this economic recession is not cyclical, but in this case is most likely a structural contraction. As consumers save more, consumer expenditures decline, and as long as unemployment remains very high (likely), final demand is likely to be very tepid. That means top line growth, ex-cost cutting, is likely to be poor in 2010, and in my view that could easily give rise to a second bear market decline as P/E multiples adjust lower.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
11. AIG loses $4.3bn case against Greenberg
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03a084f0-6b37-11de-861d-00144feabdc0.html

By Joanna Chung in New York

Published: July 7 2009 21:45 | Last updated: July 8 2009 00:30

Hank Greenberg, the former chief executive of insurer AIG on Tuesday prevailed in a high-profile legal battle with his former company after a federal jury ruled in his favour over claims related to a $4.3bn lawsuit.

The jury ruled that Mr Greenberg’s private investment firm, Starr International Company (Sico), did not breach a trust when it terminated a long-term compensation plan at the insurer four years ago and was not liable for about $4.3bn worth of shares held for that programme.

The jury’s verdict, which comes after four and half hours of deliberation, is advisory and can still be overturned by Judge Jed Rakoff, who is expected to make a final decision by next month.

But the outcome of the trial, which featured Mr Greenberg as the star witness, will likely be seen as a personal triumph for the insurer’s former leader.

He was ousted from AIG in 2005 amid an accounting scandal after more than three decades at the head of the company, which had grown to be one of the biggest in the world but collapsed last year and is now 80 per cent owned by the US government.

Liz Bowyer, spokeswoman for Starr International, said the company was “gratified’’ by the jury’s verdict and ’’the jurors’ quick and complete rejection of the outrageous personal attacks on Mr Greenberg’s character by AIG and its counsel”.

AIG said it was ‘’disappointed’’ by the verdict and would await the court’s final ruling. ‘’We continue to believe in the merits of our case,’’ it said in a statement.

During the three-week trial, AIG argued that Starr, which had funded its long-term retirement plan since 1970, had an oral trust with the insurance group to hold shares solely for the benefit of AIG executives.

Ted Wells, AIG’s attorney, painted the termination of that plan in 2005 as an act of retaliation by Mr Greenberg after he was forced out of the company. AIG wanted the stock and the $4.3bn Starr made when it sold some of its stake in the company.

AIG had said that any damages that it is awarded will go toward repaying the US government, which has spent $180bn in the last year to bail out the stricken insurer after it nearly collapsed.

But David Boies, who is representing Starr and Mr Greenberg, argued that there was never such a legal agreement, that the trust was ultimately intended for charitable purposes and was not required to compensate only AIG managers or to be a permanent arrangement.

Mr Greenberg told the court during his testimony that he had been ”exaggerating” when he told the Starr plan’s participants in 2000 that the plan was developed to ”have sufficient shares in the trust for a couple hundred years”.

THINGS THAT MAKE ONE GO HMMMMMMM....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:24 AM
Response to Original message
12. Dilbert Does It
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:40 AM
Response to Reply #12
22. "You're turning capitalism against democracy."
He gets it.

I know too many people who do not. Capitalism and democracy do not always walk hand-in-hand, nor are they synonymous. In fact, capitalism loves despotism. There's certainty in a stable despotic system. An oligarchical, capitalistic economy runs quite smoothly in that environment.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #22
26. Turning It All Back to You Now, Ozy

Rea;ity calls.....
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #12
36. F-22 ring a bell?
:evilgrin:
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #36
76. I remember a story about the B-1 bomber,
the one that was supposed to evade radar by flying nap of the earth, but never worked very well, and became obsolete when they invented cruise missiles. Four presidents tried to kill the B-1. But the developers kept drumming up just enough support in Congress to keep the project alive. One of their tactics was to base this long range bomber in Texas, in order to win (buy) the support of a few Texas Congresscritters. Texas, if you look at any map, is geographically just about as far from any potential target for a long range American bomber as you can possibly get. Texas only makes sense if you intend to bomb Central or South America. For Russia, China, the Middle East, or anywhere in Europe, Asia, and Africa, basing the plane in Texas adds a thousand miles to any flight.
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #12
45. If I didn't know better, I'd think that was aimed at the passing of
Mr.Oscar Mayer. Hot dogs, apple pie, and...InkAddict, trying to corner the market on apples so I can sell 'em on street corners.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #45
77. It's "Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie,
and Chevrolet." That old jingle sold a lot of cars.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
13. BT sets executive pay below its rivals (British Telephone)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa6dc3b0-6989-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Salamander Davoudi in London

Published: July 5 2009 19:43 | Last updated: July 5 2009 19:43

BT, the former state-owned UK telecommunications company, has set the base salary of its executives at rates below the average paid to senior managers at its competitors.

But the company says remuneration packages will still deliver significant rewards for top performance.

The amended pay proposals come amid poor performance at the telecoms group and growing shareholder dissatisfaction with large remuneration packages in general at UK companies, including the Royal Bank of Scotland.

BT’s remuneration committee met earlier this year to propose the salary changes to head off any unrest before a shareholder meeting on July 15.

As part of the measures, executive directors will see their base pay reduced but the performance-related part increased, so their total package will meet the upper range of salaries paid only if they outperform...

BT’s May annual report revealed that François Barrault, the head of BT Global Services, the division that posted significant writedowns, received a £1.6m ($2.6m) termination fee following his resignation in November. Adding in his salary and other benefits, Mr Barrault’s remuneration for the year was £2.9m.

BT took a £1.3bn charge against its fourth-quarter profits for 2008-09 on the back of deep-rooted problems at BT Global Services, which supplies telecom networks and information technology to multinationals and public bodies.

“We’re disappointed to have to make such a large payment to François but the company is honouring its legal and contractual obligations,” BT said at the time. Pirc, the investor advisory body, said shareholders deserved “a little more explanation”.

BT has also implemented a pay freeze for its 85,000 UK staff, including senior management, blaming the move on the economic downturn and the group’s need to cut costs.

BT, which employs more than 100,000 people and is Britain’s ninth-largest employer, has invited staff to take long-term holidays on 25 per cent pay, in order to weather the economic downturn.

As part of a series of measures introduced to cut costs, workers can take a year off if they accept a fraction of their salary as an upfront payment.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:31 AM
Response to Original message
15. Today's Reports
10:30 Crude Inventories 07/03
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -3.66M

15:00 Consumer Credit May
Briefing.com -$7.0B
Consensus -$8.8B
Prior -$15.7B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:10 AM
Response to Reply #15
53. Petroleum Inventories Report:
Crude inventories fall 2.9 million barrels: EIA
10:31am Today

Gasoline inventories rise 1.9 million barrels
10:31am Today

Distillate inventories rise 3.7 million barrels
10:31am Today
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
79. May consumer credit down $3.23 billion
U.S. May consumer credit down $3.23 billion
3:00pm Today

U.S. May consumer credit down at 1.5% rate
3:00pm Today
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:31 AM
Response to Original message
16. Broker-banker marriage hit by breaches of trust
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23eb4e4c-698f-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Saskia Scholtes and Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: July 5 2009 22:32 | Last updated: July 5 2009 22:32

The financial industry’s vaunted belief in trust and long-term relationships is being challenged by research showing that before the crisis US mortgage brokers fed loans of deteriorating quality to the banks they did most business with. A DANGLING PREPOSITION! HEAVENS! THE BRITS ARE GETTING SLOOPY WITH THE QUEEN'S ENGLISH!

By questioning the prevailing wisdom that dealing with well-known counterparties is more fruitful and less risky than venturing into new relationships, the academic study puts in doubt one of the banking sector’s most enduring beliefs.

Whether in takeovers, capital markets deals or simple consumer loans, bankers often claim their guiding principle is “know your customer”, arguing that long-standing ties create a symbiotic relationship.

But the study found that brokers – agents that connect borrowers with lenders for a fee – presented to banks mortgages of decreasing quality, partly because banks had grown to trust them and were less careful in monitoring performance.

It also found that brokers produced lower-quality loans as their volume of loan origination for a bank grew and the loans worsened as the distance between the broker and a bank’s headquarters increased.

The research, by Mark Garmaise, finance professor at UCLA Anderson management school, sheds light on one of the catalysts of the financial turmoil: the billions of dollars in broker-originated toxic loans on bank books.

.....
Such breaches of trust accounted for a staggering 22 per cent of late mortgage payments and 28 per cent of foreclosures in the nearly five years covered by the study.

Banks have criticised the role of brokers in the mortgage crisis, blaming them for instances of fraud and predatory lending that they say fuelled record late payments and foreclosures.

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, recently said that not closing down the bank’s mortgage broker business sooner than January was “the biggest mistake” of his career.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:03 AM
Response to Reply #16
33. The firing squads are circling n/t
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:56 AM
Response to Reply #16
49. Isn't the vow "until death do you part"
Forgiveness is key to marriages made in heaven. Or maybe, "Not tonite, dear - I've got a headache trying to figure out the next fraud so I can keep you in the style to which we've become accustomed."
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #49
68. Or as the Spousal Unit "misspoke" in our civil ceremony
"All my worldly goods, I, thee and thou."

instead of "All my worldly goods, I thee endow."

Based on that, I'm still not sure what I'm was actually promised. :shrug:

(Still Lurking)

TalkingDog
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:34 AM
Response to Original message
17. Madoff lawyer says he would do it all again
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98d6b230-698c-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Joanna Chung in New York

Published: July 5 2009 20:49 | Last updated: July 5 2009 20:49

The man who defended Bernard Madoff would not hesitate to do it again.

“Absolutely,” says Ira Sorkin, who vigorously argued for leniency on behalf of his client only to see him sentenced last week to a 150-year prison term for running a $65bn Ponzi scheme that devastated thousands of lives.

“I believe in the constitution and the bill of rights and as a defence attorney I play a role in preserving the system of justice,” he says.

Few attorneys would turn down the chance to represent a high-profile figure, not least because reputations can be built on taking on difficult cases. Dan Petrocelli became known for defending Jeffrey Skilling, Enron chief executive, while Johnnie Cochran gained prominence for representing OJ Simpson.

“At the core of our legal system is the premise that everyone deserves a vigorous defence, including a client as infamous and reviled as Mr Madoff,” says Charles Clark, partner at the Kirkland & Ellis law firm and a former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement lawyer who led the agency’s investigation into Enron.

But defending Mr Madoff made Mr Sorkin a target of death threats and “constant” hate mail during the past seven months. Mr Sorkin, 66, has worked in securities litigation for four decades and is familiar with the anger of victims in fraud cases.

He has spent more than a decade chasing fraudsters. Mr Sorkin, who is now with law firm Dickstein Shapiro, once led the New York office of the SEC and was a federal prosecutor in the southern district of New York, the office that prosecuted Mr Madoff.

But “never has it been like this”, he says, referring to the personal vitriol he experienced.

There were few victories for Mr Sorkin in the case. Described by one peer as an “aggressive advocate”, he is known for cutting the best possible deals for his clients. With Mr Madoff, however, there was little room for manoeuvre.

Mr Sorkin helped Mr Madoff retain his freedom with a $10m bond secured on his Manhattan penthouse. But Mr Madoff was subsequently placed under house arrest and then jailed after pleading guilty.

When it came to sentencing, Mr Sorkin failed to convince the judge to hand down a term less than the maximum.

Lawyers not involved with the case say Mr Sorkin had an impossible task.

“By the time he got the case, there was a full confession . . . a client who was intent on taking all the responsibility for himself. Sorkin had no cards and he played them well,” says Daniel Richman, a professor at Columbia University and a former federal prosecutor.

“Given the difficult hand that he was was dealt, the object of this representation has to be to lose more slowly,” says Mr Clark.

Mr Sorkin declined to discuss how or whether he would be paid.

Some lawyers say there is an opportunity cost with being Mr Madoff’s lawyer, with Mr Sorkin potentially being limited in getting involved with future related cases and litigation that is likely to ensue for years and could prove to be lucrative.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:49 AM
Response to Reply #17
30. And so would Bernard Madoff and his family of thieves. n/t
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:35 AM
Response to Original message
18. Oil falls near $62 on recovery doubts
VIENNA – Oil prices slipped closer to the $62 a barrel mark Wednesday reflecting growing concerns over a slower-than-expected recovery in the global economy.

Prices were lower for the sixth straight day from a peak of above $73 last week, in tandem with continued weakness in Asian stock markets and a stronger U.S. dollar.

....

Stockpiles of gasoline have increased steadily for the past four weeks during a time when traffic volumes usually peak. Supply data coming from the Department of Energy on Wednesday is expected to show that trend continuing.

In its short-term outlook released Tuesday, the department said it expects consumption of liquid petroleum to shrink 3.3 percent this year. Still, it expects oil to average about $70 per barrel for second half of the year.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery fell by more than 2 cents to $1.71 a gallon and heating oil lost close to two pennies to fetch $1.59. Natural gas for August delivery was more 4 cents at $3.39 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #18
25. OPEC cuts forecasts for global oil demand
VIENNA (AFP) – OPEC has revised downwards its medium and long-term forecasts for global oil demand in the wake of the current economic crisis, it said in a new report Wednesday.

In its World Oil Outlook 2009, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that under its revised main forecast oil demand would be "less than 106 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030, down from 113 million bpd."

OPEC is forecasting global oil demand of 90.2 million bpd in 2015 and 105.6 million bpd in 2030, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) is pencilling in 94.4 million bpd and 106.4 million bpd respectively.

....

"Almost 80 percent of the net growth in oil demand from 2008-2030 is in developing Asia," the report said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090708/bs_afp/opecoilcommoditiesenergyforecast_20090708111548
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:36 AM
Response to Original message
19. Andreessen raises $300m VC fund
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/263bf8a0-69b6-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Richard Waters in San Francisco

Published: July 6 2009 05:00 | Last updated: July 6 2009 05:00

Marc Andreessen, co-founder of browser company Netscape, has raised $300m for a new venture capital fund in the midst of one of the leanest periods ever for the start-up financing business.

The strong backing for one of Silicon Valley’s best-known serial entrepreneurs and private “angel” investors reflects the intense competition among big investment institutions for a chance to get into some of the hottest internet and computing deals.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Andreessen predicted a new wave of innovation in what he called “classic tech”, as old investment ideas on the internet gain a new lease of life and new generations of storage, networking and other technologies create unexpected upheavals in areas of computing that had appeared settled.

Among the first investments made by Mr Andreessen and his partner, fellow entrepreneur Ben Horowitz, is one in a new browser company, giving him a stake in the newly competitive browser business a decade after Microsoft vanquished Netscape and appeared to have gained an unassailable lead.

With new tech start-ups requiring very little money in their early days, venture capitalists have found it increasingly hard to get a position in the hottest new companies. Internet start-ups are able to rent computing capacity cheaply rather than buy their own equipment up front, making it far less costly to start out.

Mr Andreessen said the pair could have raised “$500m or $600m” but capped their fund at $300m because they felt a two-person company could not handle more.

The pair met at Netscape and went on to found LoudCloud, an early “cloud”, or internet-based, computing company that struggled before an eventually successful sale to Hewlett-Packard. Over the past four years they have made 45 personal investments in start-ups, including micro-blogging service Twitter, news site Digg and mobile headset maker Jawbone.

Running a venture capital fund would make it less likely the pair would fail with an idea because they were too early, as nearly happened with LoudCloud, said Mr Andreessen. “As venture investors you can make the same bet multiple times – as long as you get it right some time, the win will more than make up for all of the losses,” he said.

Consumer electronics, traditionally a cut-throat, low-margin business, is likely to present some of the biggest investment opportunities for Silicon Valley’s tech companies, Mr Andreessen said.

Thanks to the availability of “off-the-shelf” chips, and Asian hardware makers ready to produce the gadgets at low cost, much of the value in consumer electronics was now in software, the Valley’s main specialisation, he said.

The first three months of this year saw only three new VC funds in the US, compared with about 15 seen in a typical quarter. Investors have retrenched due to an unwillingness to add to illiquid investments after suffering losses in other parts of their portfolios, and because of a long record of under-performance by many VC funds.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
20.  AIG to weigh up offers for Taiwan life arm
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53c0fc94-697f-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Sundeep Tucker in Hong Kong and Robin Kwong in Taipei

Published: July 5 2009 22:35 | Last updated: July 5 2009 22:35

American International Group will this week assess initial bids for its $2bn Taiwanese life assurance unit, after strong interest from global private equity firms and strategic buyers.

Several private equity firms and local financial groups submitted non-binding bids ahead of a weekend deadline, raising hopes of a competitive auction.

According to people familiar with the matter, interested private equity firms include Carlyle Group and Oaktree, the US fund groups.

At least two Asia-based private equity firms, MBK Partners and Primus Pacific Partners, are also keen on the asset, said people familiar with the discussions.

The auction has also drawn strong interest from financial groups including Cathay Financial Holding, Fubon and Chinatrust.

Some overseas groups are expected to team up with local bidders to form rival consortia as the sale process for Nan Shan Life Insurance enters its decisive phase.

AIG owns 95 per cent of Nan Shan, Taiwan’s third-largest life insurer by gross premiums with an 11 per cent market share. The unit had T$67bn (US$2.3bn) in net assets at the end of June 2008. Some analysts and banking executives say that Nan Shan’s attractiveness is diminished by the fact that, like other Taiwanese insurers, its liabilities include policies that guarantee high returns to policyholders.

“AIG may be too optimistic if it thinks it can fetch $2bn for Nan Shan,” said a Taiwan banking executive.

A number of foreign insurers have exited the Taiwanese market because new accounting rules adopted in Europe – but not in Taiwan – require insurers to set aside a large amount of capital for these policies which are producing losses because the low investment returns achievable in the market are well below the guaranteed rate of return.

Dutch group ING sold its Taiwan life assurance unit to Fubon for $600m while the UK’s Prudential sold its agency network and policy liabilities to a local group for a nominal fee.

People familiar with the situation said the government is expected to prefer a local strategic buyer to lead any acquisition.

“This is not just a question of price,” said one person involved in the sale process. “Insurance requires specialist skills. It is not like retailing or industrial production.”

AIG is selling assets to repay about $100bn in debt and equity to the US government, which rescued it last year. The company has disclosed that it had raised $6.7bn from asset sales since last September.

Nan Shan is not part of American International Assurance, AIG’s pan-Asian life insurance unit.

Hong Kong-based AIA, which is regarded as a “crown jewel” of AIG, has appointed banking advisers to assist with a $5bn-plus Hong Kong market listing expected early next year.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:40 AM
Response to Original message
21. Securitisation reinvented to cut costs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47403c68-698f-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Patrick Jenkins in London

Published: July 5 2009 23:31 | Last updated: July 5 2009 23:31

Investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Barclays Capital, are inventing schemes to reduce the capital cost of risky assets on banks’ balance sheets, in the latest sign that financial market innovation is far from dead.

The schemes, which Goldman insiders refer to as “insurance” and BarCap calls “smart securitisation”, use different mechanisms to achieve the same goal: cutting capital costs by up to half in some cases, at the same time as regulators are threatening to force banks to increase their capital requirements.

BarCap’s structures involve the pooling of assets from several clients into a secured financial product that can be sold on to other investors and rated by a credit rating agency, potentially reducing the capital allocated against the assets by between 10 per cent and 50 per cent.

These new mechanisms are in some respects similar to the discredited structured products, which were widely blamed for fuelling the financial crisis. But the schemes’ backers argue there are two significant differences. First, they involve the securitisation of banks’ existing assets, rather than of new lending. Second, bankers argue that the new products do not disguise the transfer of risk.

“This is the world of smart securitisation,” said Geoff Smailes, managing director of global credit solutions at BarCap. “It’s not securitisation for leverage and arbitrage purposes any more. This is all about restructuring portfolios of assets to achieve risk, capital and funding efficiency in a transparent and less complex way.”

However, some regulators may be wary of the invention of new pooled asset derivatives, especially if they are perceived as a way to avoid regulatory capital requirements.

Some rival bankers also view the schemes with scepticism. “This is a system of capital arbitrage,” said one senior banker at another investment bank. “The need for capital just miraculously disappears.”

BarCap has worked on portfolios worth hundreds of billions of pounds in recent months, including those of the Barclays’ parent company. Investors in the securitised products typically include the original banks, plus third parties, such as hedge funds and private equity firms, as well as BarCap itself.

Separately, Goldman is working on what bankers said was a private-sector version of the UK government’s asset protection scheme. The goal would be similar – to reduce the capital that would need to be held against the assets – although Goldman has yet to find a balance between the risks and rewards that would be attractive to investors.

Investment banks do not believe they can compete with the government-sponsored APS, mainly due to scale. RBS and Lloyds between them are putting £560bn ($914bn) into the scheme. Under Goldman’s idea, it would sell an insurance product to a bank with a toxic portfolio, effectively shifting the risk of the underlying assets off the balance sheet. The insurance would require far less capital to be carried against it than the original assets.

Deutsche Bank engineered a comparable structure to facilitate the dismantling of risk at failed insurer AIG, although bankers close to that transaction said without government involvement the cost of such a structure would be commercially unfeasible.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #21
44. "Schemes" The word alone has an unsavory implication
They're schemers, scheming to steal someone else's money and give it people who already have far more than they could ever use. They're not doing anything productive, they're not contributing to the greater good of society or the planet. They're just greedy assholes.

Greedy stinking assholes.





Tansy Gold
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #44
55. Good Morning Tansy
It's COLD up here--it was 49F at 8 am. Brrr! I think it's either due to the Russian volcano that blew its top June 12th, or to the fact that we are replacing all the roofs in the condos, which requires replacing the gas lines on the roofs, which requires turning off the furnaces...which means no heat when you need it.

Normally, one doesn't need heat in July unless in the UP....
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #55
59. heat in July bwahahahahaha
It's 93 here, at 8:40 a.m. I think it was 84 at 5:30.

and i think the forecast high for sunday is 117. Nah, just checked weather.com and they've lowered it to 110.

:hi:

I'm not complainin'. I do NOT do midwest winters.



TG, slowly recovering from Monday's nightmare but not there yet.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #44
65. I'm glad you've found, as I have...
That these people have nothing to do all day, but, sit around and figure out how to convert someone else's money to their own.

Currently they've almost finished with the pension plans and 401(k)s... Did I mention someone *cough*Congress*coff* voted to give them the keys to the US Treasury? They'll start there next.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #65
71. yes, and there's another thread in LBN about one of the biggies
converting CDOs to AAA bonds. I couldn't even stand to repost it here.

It's not a matter of telling TPTB that this stuff is just shit in a fancy package. They already know that. It's a matter of STOPPING the repackaging. And I just don't know how to do that.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #71
80. FRSP! The PERMANENT Solution To Most of Life's Problems!
I believe in my product, you betcha!
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #80
90. frsp?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #90
91. Elementary!
French Revolution Severance Packages--the parting gift for every looting elitist, robber baron, and any other abuser of power.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #90
92. French Revolution Severance Packages.
A Demeter thought, that's become a classic around here.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:41 AM
Response to Original message
23. Samsung bullish on tech recovery
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23d3f9b4-69e3-11de-bc9f-00144feabdc0.html

By Song Jung-a in Seoul

Published: July 6 2009 05:22 | Last updated: July 6 2009 23:09

Samsung Electronics, the world’s biggest maker of memory chips and liquid crystal display screens, signalled on Monday that it might be emerging from the downturn in the technology sector as it forecast a fivefold jump in second-quarter operating profit.

Technology groups have been hard hit by the economic downturn as consumers have scaled back on purchases of electronics products.

But signs of optimism are increasing. The South Korean group’s announcement comes less than a month after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, bet on a recovery in the chip industry as it revealed plans to boost manufacturing capacity and technological prowess.

Samsung has fared better than Sony, its Japanese rival, and has increased market share in the handset and flat-panel television markets. Its cost competitiveness has been helped by the weakness of the won against the dollar.

Samsung said it expected operating profit on a consolidated basis to range from Won2,200bn to Won2,600bn ($1.7bn-$2bn) in the April-June period, and estimated revenues at Won31,000bn-Won33,000bn.

The consolidated figures include earnings from overseas affiliates.

The company reported its first operating loss of $680m in the fourth quarter but swung back to profit in the first quarter, although net profit was still down 72 per cent from a year ago.

Samsung does not normally give a forecast ahead of its results, but decided to do so to reduce market speculation. Analysts said the surprisingly bullish announcement suggested the company was back on track. The forecast is a big jump from the first quarter’s Won470bn and is comparable to the Won2,400bn profit a year ago.

The shares rose as much as 6.32 per cent to Won639,000 on Monday, outperforming a 0.63 per cent rise in the broader market. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch raised its recommendation from “underperform” to “buy”, citing earnings growth.

Analysts attributed Samsung’s strong performance to brisk sales of its high-margin liquid crystal display TVs and multimedia mobile handsets.

“Sales of digital media products such as LCD TVs and home appliance goods were better than expected,” said James Song, analyst at Daewoo Securities. “Demand for electronics products seems to be recovering gradually.”

He said earnings would continue to improve in the third quarter, helped by a turnround in the struggling D-Ram memory chip business. Prices of the benchmark computer memory chip prices rose 8 per cent in the second quarter while global chip sales in May rose for a third consecutive month.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 06:50 AM
Response to Original message
31. Toxic asset program may be too late to help banks (I thought PPIP was dead.)
WASHINGTON – A government plan designed to rid banks' books of the troubled assets that exacerbated the financial crisis will do little to address a fundamental weakness of the industry or the broader economy, analysts say.

The Treasury Department this week will announce the names of between five and 10 fund investment firms participating in the multibillion-dollar plan, according to two industry officials who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss the matter.

The plan, known as the Public-Private Investment Program, or PPIP, will leverage private capital with government subsidies so that these investment firms can buy up the soured mortgage-related assets that have clogged banks' balance sheets and made them reluctant to lend freely to businesses and consumers.

But since announcing the plan five months ago, the government has shelved part of it that would help these firms buy individual mortgages and other loans held by the banks. As a result, some analysts say its impact will be muted.

.....

Some of the PPIP managers are expected to include Blackrock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and TCW Group Inc., according to the two industry officials. Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said Tuesday on CNBC that he would use up to $1 billion to participate.

Ross said banks will never break even on many of their troubled assets, but that the government plan will get them five-to-10 percentage points closer.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_bi_ge/us_toxic_asset_plan_treasury
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #31
38. Name Me One Bad Idea That Has Absolutely NO Adherents
NeoNazis, anyone?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:39 AM
Response to Reply #38
41. It's a continuation of Soviet ideology.
The Bush administration demonstrated that no matter how bad an idea is - it will always attract ardent devotees. That is a model of Soviet thought. Stalin said that it would be a great idea to grow potatoes where the soil would not support the crop. Millions perished. Bush thought that it would be a great idea to put insane myopic ideologues and nincompoops in positions of managerial authority. Do we know mow many have perished? The tally keeps growing. Yet among Stalin and Bush - the policy was defended as though it was life-giving. Maybe it was for their unique brand of monstrous governance.

But yet they remain: bad ideas and their defenders.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #31
50. Am I the only one who sees massive stupidity in this?
Those "assets" are "toxic." They are not going to be worth anything near what their current book value is, not any time in the foreseeable future. The only way to get them "off the balance sheet" is to write them down to their real market value, record the loss, and sell 'em for what they can get for 'em.

Unfortunately, our government is controlled by greedy fucks who are constitutionally /sic/ incapable of admitting a mistake and/or taking a financial hit. So they have maneuvered/manipulated the government into bailing them out and essentially selling these toxic assets to the unwilling, unsuspecting, and unable to protect themselves from this financial rape public.

Somebody besides Matt Taibbi needs to scream it for what it is.



Tansy Gold, thinking it's time to change her avatar
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #50
56. To what?
The mind boggles.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #56
60. See above
I changed it to the Scream because of a piece written ABOUT Taibbi's piece on GS. We all need to be screaming, shouting, all the time.


Except I have a sore throat from screaming at dogs, so all I can do is change my avatar.



ha ha, skeered ya din't I?



Tansy Gold
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #60
61. What was it before?
I really ought to get me an avatar....
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #61
64. Just a generic "I voted" thing. Nothin' special
I should make my own. One of my rocks or somethin'. Don't have the time to figure out how to do it though.

Or, ha ha, the rubber stamp!


That'd be good.




TG
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #64
67. I'd keep the rubber stamp for special occasions.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #67
74. That's probably a good idea, doc, but . . ..
"special occasions" are supposed to be rare. There are far far FAR too many ITYS occasions these days.

And most of those ITYS occasions should lead to FRSP occasions, but they don't. . . . .and that's probably a good thing. No doubt we'd just end up like the real FR and go lopping off heads willynilly. I'd be happy just to see them all stripped of their ill-gotten filthy lucre.




Tansy Gold
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #67
81. Even with Just Use on Special Occasions, It's Likely to Wear Out
Every damn day it's another exceptional day.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:00 AM
Response to Original message
32. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.695 Change -0.010 (-0.01%)

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Surge as DJIA, S&P 500 Tumble to Key Levels - G8 Summit Adds to Event Risk

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Japanese_Yen_Surge_1247004756188.html

The US dollar and Japanese yen both saw extremely choppy price action, and ultimately ended the day up against the majors as risk aversion drove FX carry trades and equities lower. However, where the S&P 500 and DJIA closed leave very mixed signals, as daily charts of both indices show head and shoulders patterns, but the former ended the day just above its neckline of 880, while the latter made a bearish break below its neckline at 8260. This leaves Wednesday’s price action as being quite critical for the outlook for equities and FX carry trade alike. Personal suspicions sit on the bearish side of the fence, as global economic outlooks may be a bit too rosy for reality, which could ultimately disappointing corporate earnings down the road (and thus, declines in equities).

While there are no major US economic indicators due out on Wednesday, there will be lingering event risk stemming for the upcoming Group of Eight (G8) meeting from July 8 - July 10. According to a program outline on the G8 Summit site, participating government leaders will discuss the world economy, global issues, international issues, development policies, futures sources of growth, and the impact of the crisis on Africa. In between all of these meetings, there will also be a variety of press conferences, leaving ample room open for market-moving commentary.

...more...


Euro, British Pound Pressured as Stock Losses Boost Demand for US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Euro__British_Pound_Pressured_as_1247029651467.html

The UK economy shrank at the slowest pace in a year in the second quarter, losing -0.4% in the three months to June according to the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. In a statement accompanying the release, NIESR said that they estimate “the U.K. economy is now stagnating rather than continuing to contract at a sharp pace,” expecting economic growth to remain elusive until the middle of next year. The comments mirror those of Bank of England chief Mervyn King, who has said the economic recovery may become “a long, hard slog”. Overnight index swaps suggest traders are pricing in virtually no chance that the BOE will change interest rates from the record low 0.5% this week, although 12-month yield forecasts have been trimmed by 25 basis points just over the past week. An expansion of the current 125 billion pound quantitative easing program is also unlikely for the time being considering signs of stabilization in leading economic indicators that have emerged over recent weeks. Indeed, Nationwide Consumer Confidence rose to 58 in June, the highest reading since October 2008, with only 23% survey respondents expecting the economy will materially deteriorate over the next six months.

Japan’s Current Account surplus grew to 1.3 trillion yen in May from 0.6 trillion in the previous month. Economists had forecast a 1.5 trillion yen result ahead of the release. The improvement in the headline figure is far from encouraging, however, considering it came as the drop in imports (-43.9%) outpaced the decline in exports (-42.2%) over the 12 months from May 2008. The data echoes a similar result in the narrower Merchandise Trade Balance figure, painting a grim picture of the spending climate in the world’s second largest economy. Indeed, retail sales came to a standstill during the same period. Looking ahead, the headline current account figure may continue to grow as companies acclimate to lower global demand. Minutes from the last Bank of Japan policy meeting revealed policymakers believe exports will “level out…mainly due to progress in adjustments in local inventories” while consumption (including that of imported goods) remains weak as the “employment and income situation becomes increasingly severe.” Indeed, the jobless rate rose to the highest in over 5 years in May as the economy shed 440k jobs.

Separately, the forward-looking component of Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey surged to 45.6 in June from 43.3 in the previous month, the highest since September 2007. The metric polls barbers, taxi drivers, and other retail service providers to gauge underlying trends in consumer confidence. Merchant sentiment was likely boosted by the government’s record 2 trillion yen ($20 billion) fiscal boost. It remains to be seen if the improvement is sustainable after this effort is exhausted.

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence added 9.3% in July, the second consecutive month of gains, rising to the highest level in 19 months. In annual terms, confidence has added 38.5%. We had speculated the release would produce an uptick in our Australian Dollar Weekly Forecast, noting that sentiment was likely to be boosted as a hefty A$12 billion in fiscal stimulus filters into the broad economy. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans seems to agree, saying the result is “unquestionably a stunning result” that must owe to “the huge financial handouts introduced by the government.” The Australian Dollar barely budged as the data crossed the wires, reflecting a perception that the big question going forward will be whether the economy can maintain momentum once the flow of government cash dries up. Yesterday, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged but said that there is still “scope for further easing of monetary policy”, identifying credit conditions and the effects of economic weakness on asset quality as “a challenge”.

...more...

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
34. Swiss Vow to Block UBS From Providing Data to U.S. (popcorn time!)
PARIS — The Swiss government said Wednesday that it was prepared to seize U.B.S. client data rather than allow the bank to hand it over to the United States to settle a tax case.

U.B.S. has refused a demand from U.S. authorities that it turn over the names of 52,000 American clients, arguing that to do so would be illegal under Swiss banking secrecy laws and would open it to prosecution at home. The U.S. Justice Department in February sued U.B.S., saying it suspected the bank of helping wealthy Americans hide billions of dollars in secret offshore accounts.

....

The Swiss government will issue an order explicitly prohibiting U.B.S. from handing over client information “if circumstances require,” it said.

U.B.S., the largest Swiss bank, is under great pressure to reach an agreement. The bank has already paid $780 million and turned over the names of more than 250 clients to avoid prosecution on allegations that it defrauded the Internal Revenue Service. Its soured investments, many on American subprime mortgages, have cost it $53 billion in write-downs, sending it to taxpayers for a bailout. U.B.S. officials were not immediately available for comment Wednesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/business/global/09ubs.html?ref=global-home
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #34
39. The State of Our Army Is Such That We Couldn't Even Go to War Against the Swiss
maybe not even against Swiss cheese.

I want to apologize for the bad typing above...I was half asleep and trying to get the Kid to go back to sleep....
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
35. GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, oil fall on nagging weak economic outlook
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices fell and global stocks tumbled Tuesday as talk of a second U.S. government stimulus plan heightened persistent concerns about prospects for an economic recovery.

A breach of a key technical support of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index below the 885 level accelerated a late-day sell-off in U.S. equities, driving benchmark yields on U.S. Treasuries to six-week lows.

....

S&P on Tuesday said that the charge-off rate, or loans that banks do not expect to be repaid, of bank-issued U.S. credit cards rose to a record in May as unemployment hit a 26-year high.

....

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed 0.8 percent lower at 826.36 points. The FTSE 100 closed down 7.91 points at 4,817, a fresh two-month low.

British manufacturing output unexpectedly fell 0.5 percent in May, official data showed, making it less likely the economy returned to growth in the second quarter.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/2009/07/07/2009-07-07T210312Z_01_N07339811_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-6.html
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
40. Panzner: 'How Long Before the Fed's Days Are Numbered?'
Below is my latest column for the Huffington Post, entitled "How Long Before the Fed's Days Are Numbered?":

It's no stretch to say the Federal Reserve is garnering a lot of attention these days.

On Wall Street, there's a big debate over whether the Fed's next big move will come too soon or too late. In Washington, the Administration is promoting a plan to give the central bank new powers to oversee systemic risks. Over in the House of Representatives, maverick Republican Ron Paul has gathered more than 245 co-sponsors for a bill requiring an audit of the Fed. In the media, there are questions about whether President Obama will allow Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to keep his job when his term ends in January. And finally, some commentators are wondering whether this allegedly autonomous institution will retain its independence in a post-crisis world.

But few seem to be asking what I believe is the key question: how long before the Fed's days are numbered?

Before you dismiss my words as a rant, hear me out. Why, for example, is the power to commit substantial resources on taxpayers' behalf, to influence many of the most important commitments and relationships of businesses, individuals, and governments, and to initiate economic and regulatory policies with far-reaching consequences, in the hands of unelected officials with unexceptional abilities and no real accountability?

....

For one thing, we have a group of individuals, entrusted with the job of reading the economic tea leaves and enacting policies in response, which not only failed to anticipate the worst financial crisis this century, but has yet to make a usefully accurate forecast since the disaster started. Remember, Chairman Bernanke is the individual who maintained that the subprime meltdown would remain "contained." He also said in March that he could see the now elusive "green shoots" sprouting throughout the economy.

And once the crisis began to unfold in earnest, what was the response of those charged with looking after our nation's economic and financial interests? Cynica might describe it as Keystone Cops-like chaos. On the one hand, we've had a reactive whirlwind of aggressive monetary measures that, while creating the semblance of stability, have resolved little and stymied desperately-needed restructuring. Worse still, a broad swath of corporate America is now dependent on government support for its continued existence.

The questions are pure gold.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #40
43. When large numbers of people realize the FED is corrupt

Think about the large number of people who watch a college Big10 football game? How many people watch a pro-football team? How many people wanted tickets to attend Michael Jackson's memorial?

When these same large numbers of people finally wake up and realize how corrupt the FED is, then perhaps it can be removed.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #43
48. No matter how large the crowds, Michigan still sucks!
:evilgrin:

Go Bucks!
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #48
51. OH
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #48
57. I May Not Have Attended, But Go Blue Yourself, Doc!
One must defend the home team from Ohio!
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #48
78. Oh, my. I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if 112,000 Wolverine fans cried out at once.
And of course they would have cried out, "Let's go Blue!" Sadly, the Dark Side has been strong in Columbus in recent years, led by Darth Tressel.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #40
58. I'd Say the Fed's Days Are Already Numbered
starting from when they sold all their Treasuries to China and took on all the toxic stuff China didn't want. The Agencies are probably the best of what they have on the books now.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 02:49 PM
Response to Reply #40
70. Anyone reading Taibbi's article, or this one, or many other fine
Edited on Wed Jul-08-09 02:49 PM by truedelphi
Pieces of print, realizes that in a fair and just world, the Fed would go.

But it is my belief that Goldman Sachs would see us all in camps before they would let the faucet to their swimming pool go down.

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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
42. Debt: 07/06/2009 11,520,570,236,023.37 (UP 29,582,166,137.53) (Up 30B$.)
(Back to a noticeable increase. FICA not moving much.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,169,780,092,481.21 + 4,350,790,143,542.16
UP 29,989,200,037.82 + DOWN 407,033,900.29

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,811,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,549.39.
A family of three owes $112,648.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,028,489,743.57.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,420,892,478.62.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,278,283,043.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 114 reports in 167 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.12B$ per report, -0.02B$/day so far.
There were 189 reports in 279 days of FY2009 averaging 7.91B$ per report, 5.36B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,294 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/06/2009 11,520,570,236,023.37 BHO (UP 893,693,187,110.29 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,495,845,339,110.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon

36,576,501,597.57 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,855,938,432,764.30 in last 291 days.
That's 1,856B$ in 291 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 182% of that highest year ever only in 291 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 291 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3956853&mesg_id=3956859
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-09-09 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #42
93. Debt: 07/07/2009 11,523,843,053,689.95 (UP 3,272,817,666.58) (Up a little.)
(Small change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,169,995,258,496.69 + 4,353,847,795,193.26
UP 215,166,015.48 + UP 3,057,651,651.10

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,818,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,559.17.
A family of three owes $112,677.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,908,677,914.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,529,986,400.84.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,246,862,250.78.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 115 reports in 168 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.14B$ per report, -0.03B$/day so far.
There were 190 reports in 280 days of FY2009 averaging 7.89B$ per report, 5.35B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,293 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/07/2009 11,523,843,053,689.95 BHO (UP 896,966,004,776.87 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,499,118,156,777.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********

36,491,363,693.93 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,859,211,250,430.88 in last 292 days.
That's 1,859B$ in 292 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 183% of that highest year ever only in 292 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 292 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3958439&mesg_id=3958564
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
66. Dow Newswire: Six Arrested on Securities Fraud, NY Brokerage Firm/
(Another article from NY Newsday says $145M over a period of years...no other details)

By Chad Bray
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Federal Bureau of Investigation has six people in custody in connection with a multimillion securities fraud case, a FBI spokesman confirmed Wednesday.

The spokesman, James M. Margolin, said the individuals, who worked at a New York brokerage firm, surrendered Wednesday morning. He declined to discuss details of the case because the paperwork hasn't been unsealed.

A spokeswoman for the U.S. Attorney's office in Manhattan declined comment.

-By Chad Bray, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-227-2017; chad.bray@dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2009 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #66
83. Not Even Which Brokerage?
Man, that's secrecy.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 05:56 PM
Response to Original message
87. Ever Since Goldman Lost Their Secret Sauce, the Market's Been Saner
have you noticed?
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-08-09 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #87
89. Yes...Zero Hedge and Taibbi got on them...and the market
has seemed to be more like it should be. And, even that's with others doing "light volume trading" to pick up the slack.

Interesting, isn't it.
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