STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 9, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 3

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 8, 2009

Dow... 8,178.41 +14.81 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq... 1,747.17 +1.00 (+0.06%)
S&P 500... 879.56 -1.47 (-0.17%)
Gold future... 879.56 -1.47 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.30 -0.15 (-4.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.19 -0.12 (-2.69%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Commodities: Bursting Bubble or Crouching Tiger?
by Chris Puplava

Today’s article is a follow up to last week’s piece entitled, “Commodity Bubble Revisited.” The premise of last week’s article was to make the case that commodities were not in a bubble in the last bull market that ended in 2008 with a climatic top. Today’s article makes the case that the secular commodity bull market that began earlier this decade is resting, waiting to pounce on the global market like a crouching tiger under the right conditions rather than a bursting bubble. While it is true that certain fundamental drivers that have underpinned the secular commodity bull market have changed -- think of a shell-shocked U.S. consumer rediscovering the meaning of saving -- other fundamental shifts remain in tact and will propel commodity prices to new highs in the years to come.

Broken Supports: Leverage Giveth & Leverage Taketh Away

One of the supports to the commodity bull market was the U.S. consumer increasing consumption which fueled the demand for commodities used to make the goods the U.S. purchased. This support has had a stake driven right through its heart. What can not be disputed is that the era in the U.S. of living above one’s means is over, finito, caput. In the 1990s U.S. consumers lowered their savings rate from double-digit territory to roughly 2% by the end of the decade. When the economy softened during the 2001 recession consumers turned their homes into ATM machines by pulling equity out of their homes to finance consumption levels AND reduce their savings rate below 0%! E.E. Cummings' quote would describe the situation for the U.S. consumer of the last decade, “I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart.”

The question for the U.S. consumer is what’s left to leverage? Homeowners' equity as a percentage of market value of residential real estate has plummeted from 70% in 1984 to less than 43% currently, and 401Ks have been reduced to 201Ks. The leverage that propped asset markets up and gave the false sense of prosperity is the same leverage that has worked in reverse to take those former profits away.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 07/04
Briefing.com 600K
Consensus 603K
Prior 614K

10:00 Wholesale Inventories May
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus -1.0%
Prior -1.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

27. Initial Claims @ 606,000 - last wk rev'd up 2k

US weekly initial jobless claims down 52K to 565K
8:30am Today

US 4-wk avg initial claims fall 10,000 to 606,000
8:30am Today

US ongoing claims up 159K to record 6.88M
8:30am Today

US 4-wk avg ongoing claims up 12K to record 6.77M
8:30am Today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $61 amid uncertain demand outlook

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $61 in Asia on Thursday, recouping some losses after tumbling 17 percent since last week as rising U.S. gasoline inventories suggested crude demand remains weak.

Traders predicted oil prices would resume their slide.

....

The Department of Energy reported Wednesday that gasoline in storage grew by another 1.9 million barrels last week, the fifth straight week that stocks have grown.

"That's not a good sign," said Clarence Chu, a trader at market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "It shows demand for gasoline hasn't picked up like it normally does this time of year."

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 1.87 cents to $1.65 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.22 cents to $1.55. Natural gas for August delivery jumped 4.0 cents to $3.39 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

21. August crude up $1.02 at $61.16 a barrel on Globex

August crude up $1.02 at $61.16 a barrel on Globex
7:55am Today

[Demeter]

36. "It shows demand for gasoline hasn't picked up like it normally does this time of year."

this is the New Normal. Adjust to it.

[Dr.Phool]

40. I said that last year.

Gas prices sent a shock wave through the American psyche. People were going to adjust, and it was going to be permanent.

Last year, when I had my pizza shop, all of my customers were losing their jobs. The price of gas was just another nail in the coffin. Millions more jobs are gone now. What difference does it make if you pull one nail out of the coffin? You're still dead.

[ozymandius]

4. May I ask a question of our Mac users here?

I have an extra wireless keyboard made by Rosewill. It does not have the Mac 'command' key - just the usual 'ctrl'+'start'+'alt' keys to the left of the space bar. Will this work with a Mac?

Thank you for any info you may share. :hi:

[MattSh]

25. Should be no problem, Ozy.

Don't know what model Mac you have, but the Mac Mini bills itself as the Mac you can use with the keyboard, mouse, and monitor you already own. I don't know the specifics of how wireless works, but I don't see a problem.

If you switch between Mac and PC keyboards, the order of the keys to the left and right of the space bar are different. If you only use a PC keyboard, you should be able to proceed as usual.

If I'm wrong about this, stop by the Macintosh group here on DU. They'll know.

[ozymandius]

28. Thank you so very much.

My new computer is a Mac Mini. I found one reasonably tricked-out for less than $300. My wife has a Mac Mini with a pricey Kensington wireless keyboard and mouse. It does have the Apple 'command' key. I will check with the Mac users group for more pointers.

I really appreciate your advice, MattSh!

[ozymandius]

5. GM to go green, cut execs, as it exits bankruptcy

DETROIT – General Motors could literally turn green as it readies itself for major management and cultural changes that will coincide with its escape from bankruptcy protection.

People briefed on its plans say the company is looking into changing the background color of its corporate logo from blue to green in an effort to show consumers that it is leaner and greener, more focused on fuel efficiency and better able to make quick decisions.

.....

What has been decided, though, is the need for management and cultural changes. New CEO Fritz Henderson is preparing to cut another 4,000 white-collar jobs, including 450 executive-level employees such as plant managers or engineering group heads.

Henderson, under pressure from the new GM's largest shareholder, the U.S. government, wants a more nimble company, one that can make decisions faster and is less bureaucratic than the GM of the past.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_bi_ge/us_the_new_gm

[ozymandius]

6. Costco sales down an in-line 6 percent

(Reuters) – Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) on Thursday reported an in-line 6 percent fall in sales, hit by a slide in demand during the recession for higher ticket items such as cameras and cell phones.

Analysts, on average, were expecting its same-store sales at stores open at least a year in June to fall 6 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Same-store sales at its U.S. locations decreased 6 percent, while international division sales fell 3 percent.

....

Specific categories of strength in food were in deli, candy, sundries and frozen foods, while demand for camera, navigation devices, cell phones, and air conditioners was weak, Nelson said.

....

However, he said that traffic counts were pretty good in June, coming in higher year-over-year by about 4.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090709/bs_nm/us_costco

[rfranklin]

7. Looks like Demeter is sleeping in....

I had to vote first this morning.

[DemReadingDU]

11. others must be later too

I'm usually the 5th rec, today 2nd.
or maybe I'm just up earlier.
Good morning all!

[Tansy_Gold]

13. I think I was 3rd or 4th

not usually up this early. . . . . .

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

15. And fittingly, I got the fifth.

But, I may go back to bed. A lot of thunder out there, so no dog park this morning.

[Demeter]

35. Demeter Is Having One of Those "Shot From a Cannon" Days

Do you think we all picked up a computer virus somewhere? My machine was going freaky, so I restarted it, and it came back thinking it was Monday....

or is it a result of some unfavorable planetary conjunction?

Seriously, if I can't get even a few pieces of my life in order and settled down, I may have to enter a Protection program of some kind.

[ozymandius]

8. House considers increase for food stamp program

WASHINGTON – The House took up a bill on Wednesday that funds a 14 percent increase for food stamps as more people become eligible for the program because of rising unemployment.

.....

Funding for the food stamp program makes up half of a $123.8 billion House measure for agriculture and nutrition programs for the 2010 budget year beginning Oct. 1. The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, or WIC, would receive a 10 percent increase, to $7.5 billion.

The legislation provides $3 billion for the Food and Drug Administration, a 14 percent increase. International food assistance also would get a boost, with increases for emergency humanitarian food needs and aid for poor children around the world.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_go_co/us_congress_spending

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. Treasury Opens Distressed-Debt Program Without Pimco

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. plan to help buy as much as $40 billion in assets from banks got started almost four months after it was proposed and without Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond manager and an early supporter.

The U.S. Treasury Department picked nine money managers yesterday for the Public-Private Investment Program, or PPIP, including BlackRock Inc. and Invesco Ltd. Pimco, which in March announced plans to apply, said it withdrew its application in June because of “uncertainties” about the plan’s design.

The government’s plan is a scaled-down version of a program that was once envisioned to buy as much as $1 trillion in devalued real-estate loans and mortgage-backed assets. Pimco’s reversal raises questions about the complexity and potential returns from the program, said Eric Petroff, director of research at Wurts & Associates, a Seattle-based consultant to institutional investors.

....

Pimco’s withdrawal opens the field to competitors such as New York-based BlackRock, which said it plans to raise $4 billion to $5 billion from investors. The company is eligible for as much as $1.1 billion in government funds, according to Bobbie Collins, a BlackRock spokeswoman.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as5gharxTDc0

[ozymandius]

10. 13 Real Estate Professionals Are Indicted on Mortgage Fraud Charges

The Manhattan district attorney announced the indictment of 13 people on Wednesday in what he called a multimillion-dollar mortgage-fraud scheme that victimized lenders and low-income homeowners.

The 13, employed in nearly every profession in the real estate industry — including lawyers, real estate agents, appraisers and bank workers — were accused of participating in 19 sham real estate transactions.

Each of the defendants has been charged with a handful of larceny and fraud charges, the most serious of which, enterprise corruption, could result in 25-year sentences.

....

The criminal enterprise, which they said tricked lenders into issuing loans for homes whose values were artificially inflated and then had lawyers pocket some of the money, could ultimately show losses of more than $100 million, as the investigation is continuing, Mr. Morgenthau said. The 19 transactions that prosecutors called shams totaled $12 million.

A financial system that encouraged the bundling of many overvalued home loans for sale as securities to unwitting investors, in a practice that has been blamed for kick-starting the current economic crisis, also played a role, he added.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/09/nyregion/09mortgage.html?ref=nyregion

[ozymandius]

12. Is Goldman Stealing $100 Million per Trading Day?

From The Big Picture

Here’s something to give the conspiracy buffs a total breakdown: Combine these stories from Bloomberg, Daily Kos, and Zero Hedge, and you can reach a rather unsavory conclusion:

• Goldman Sachs’s $100 Million Trading Days Hit Record

• FBI Arrest Opens Goldman-Sachs’ Pandora’s Box

• Intraday Observations

• “Incredibly Shrinking Liquidity” as Goldman Flushed Quant Trading

What is the inference of potentially illegality here?

“That Goldman Sachs may just possibly have used security access codes and built a system to acquire trading information PRIOR to transaction commit time points at NYSE.

The profitability of this split-second information advantage would have been and could have been extraordinary. Observed yielding profits at $100,000,000 a day.

GS has special access inside the system from its status assisting the Working Group on Financial Markets (colloquially the Plunge Protection Team) created by Presidential Order two decades ago. GC also acts as Special Liquidity Provider for NYSE.

With 60% dominance of NYSE program trading, what’s good for Goldman defines what shows as overall market performance.”

:popcorn:

[Dr.Phool]

14. If they've been caught red-handed, as it seems.

Seize them under RICO. Confiscate ALL of their assets.

This sounds like a Continuing Criminal Enterprise to me. And there is no statute of limitations on that charge. There have been allegations that GS, under Paulson, was shorting the bonds they were selling. Put that bald-headed prick in a cell with Bernie Madoff.

The asset seizure alone would almost pay for a second stimulus.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. Another title...Mid summers night dream? n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

19. I was thinkin' about shuffling those words around a bit.

Summers' midnight. . . ._______ . . . . . . dream???

You fill in the blank.



All of this, all of it, makes me so angry. I'm sure I'm not the only one, but there seem to be so few of us. . . .



TG

[Demeter]

38. You Mean It Might Pay Off the First Stimulus!

The second one, applied in the proper place, could do much more with much less.

[Demeter]

37. Good Heavens! I Should Hope they're Doing Better Than That!

Otherwise the taxpayer will have to bail out their bonus program for management.

[mullard12ax7]

39. Organized crime is in the markets and politics, it's normal progress

in advanced criminal cultures. As crime continues its assent into higher and higher areas, political positions are just a natural course in the power grab. Goldman is corrupt as hell and just like in all other so-called advanced societies the laws are passed to make them appear legit and the criminals from the organizations are in politics -- sound familiar?

America either arrests people from its organized crime rackets or continues to go further and further into criminal self-destruction. We've all seen the path taken so far.

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.192 Change -0.439 (-0.56%)

Dollar Edges High as Growth and Risk Factors Shift

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/watch_what_the_fed_watches/Dollar_Edges_High_as_Growth_1247093225920.html

The US dollar has appreciated steadily against most of its major counterparts this past week (the notable exception being USDJPY). However, the greenback’s rise has been conspicuously reserved. Realistically though, most markets are following the same slow pace. This is due to a sense of equilibrium that has fallen over the market.



The Economy and the Credit Market



The US dollar has appreciated steadily against most of its major counterparts this past week (the notable exception being USDJPY). However, the greenback’s rise has been conspicuously reserved. Realistically though, most markets are following the same slow pace. This is due to a sense of equilibrium that has fallen over the market. Risk seems to have found a balance, projections for economic recovery are similar across the board and even strategies to unwind government aid seem to be at the same stage. This fundamental stability won’t last for long however. The market’s speculative drive will soon pit each currency against its counterparts; and at the forefront will be the US dollar. For growth, recent indicators offer steady improvement from recent record lows. More influential though was the IMF’s recent growth upgrades which kept the pace of the US recovery ahead of the Euro Zone and Japanese revivals. For risk, the abundant US stimulus is still in place should unforeseen problems arise; but unwinding this aid seems as if it could be a particularly troublesome issue for American officials.

...more...

Pound Soars Ahead Of BoE Rate Decision, Euro Finds Support As Risk Appetite Returns on Alcoa Earnings

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound_Soars_Ahead_Of_BoE_1247133292815.html

The Pound pushed back above 1.6200 after falling below 1.6000 early yesterday as a pick up in risk appetite and overbought conditions inspired sterling bulls. The cable continues to find support ahead of the BoE rate decision where the central bank is expected to keep their benchmark rate on hold at 0.50%. Meanwhile, the U.K. Visible trade balance showed that the deficit narrowed to -£6263 from -£7137 as imports declined raising concerns over domestic growth.

The BoE may potentially add to their bond purchase program by as much as £25 billion as they look to take a final step in trying to ease credit conditions and stimulate growth. Banks still remain reluctant to loan money which has started to thwart the recovery in the housing sector. Indeed, we saw Halifax report home prices fell in June by 0.5% yesterday. The added measure could be seen as a negative and a sign that downside risk remain for the economy and a recovery isn’t a forgone conclusion. Fears of a double dip recession is starting to emerge and if we see the efforts of the central bank fail to thaw credit markets and inspire growth then a depression scenario could become a possibility. However, if the MPC stands pat or closes the curtain on their quantitative efforts due to signs that economy is stabilizing and growth is returning, then we could see continued bullish pound sentiment. At the current G-8 meeting global leaders are talking of reversing recent stimulus efforts but still see the recovery as too fragile to consider initiating at this time and we could see similar talk from the BoE. 1.600 continues to provide solid support for the GBP/USD and the current bounce may lead to a test of resistance at 1.6372-20-Day SMA.

The Euro soared over 100 pips and threatening to test 1.4000 led by the first advance for equities in six days and an upbeat ECB monthly report. The central bank in their monthly report stated that current interest rates are appropriate and that economic risk remained balanced. Activity is expected to fall at a slower pace throughout the remainder of the year with growth returning by mid 2010. However, the German trade balance widened to 9.6B from 9.4B as imports fell 2.1% outpacing a small gain in exports. Final German CPI figures for May showed inflation at 0.1% which is on the verge of following the regional reading into negative territory. The central bank in their report stated that negative inflation will be a temporary phenomenon and will reverse as growth returns.

The dollar has come under pressure as risk appetite has picked up on the back of better than expected results from Alcoa. The world’s largest aluminum maker kicked off earnings season on a positive note by posting a smaller than expected loss and predicted that Chinese and U..S. stimulus will help the company start generating cash flow. Corporate earnings will have a significant impact on risk appetite and dollar sentiment which makes 3COms release worth watching today. The economic docket will bring initial jobless claims which could also add to prevailing optimism if we see a print below 600,000. Conversely a worse than expected print could raise concerns that continued weakness in the labor market will limit the scope of a recovery and spark safe-haven flows. Wholesale inventories and ICSC chain store sales will provide insight into domestic demand and the potential earnings results from retailers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Less Bad = New Good: Alcoa's quarterly loss smaller than expected

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5671RA20090709?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alcoa Inc posted a third consecutive quarterly loss on Wednesday, but cost cuts helped the largest U.S. aluminum maker beat Wall Street estimates by a large margin, sending its stock higher.

Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld later told analysts there were signs that weak demand for aluminum -- which has prompted production cuts and plummeting metals prices in the last nine months -- might be easing.

"We still have challenging global markets, but there are some pockets of growth," he said, citing such near-term catalysts as China, production curtailments, destocking of aluminum inventories and government stimulus programs.

<snip>

Revenue slumped to $4.2 billion from $7.2 billion a year earlier, as Alcoa curtailed aluminum and alumina production in response to reduced demand.

"It's a beat," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco, who added the results could give the markets a boost. "We're due for a bounce. Markets are oversold."

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Bid to clip Fed's wings gains support in Congress

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0841486420090709?sp=true

WASHINGTON, July 9 (Reuters) - A proposal from a long-time congressional foe of the Federal Reserve that could give lawmakers sway over monetary policy has won the support of a majority in the House of Representatives, alarming officials at the U.S. central bank.

The Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009, put forward by Republican Representative Ron Paul of Texas, now has 250 co-sponsors in the House. It will get air-time on Thursday during a congressional hearing on Fed independence that will feature testimony from the Fed's No. 2 official, Donald Kohn.

Public anger over the trillion dollars the Fed has put into play to battle the financial crisis and bail out investment bank Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group (AIG.N) has created a backlash and calls for more accountability.

A proposal from President Barack Obama to put the Fed in charge of monitoring risks to the entire financial system has intensified the scrutiny.

Paul has tapped into this anger and put forward a 2-1/2 page bill that would explicitly repeal a provision of law that prohibits the Government Accountability Office, a government watchdog agency, from auditing monetary policy decisions.

Fed officials see this as a dangerous intrusion on their independence that could hinder their ability to make the best long-term decisions for the economy.

Paul, however, thinks Congress needs more control.

"Why should they be independent? Independence to them means secrecy, do whatever they want, spend billions of dollars, bail out their friends," Paul told Reuters Television.

Paul's bill, which is co-sponsored by 78 Democrats, would also expose Fed transactions with foreign central banks, Fed emergency lending operations and discussions between Fed officials to scrutiny by the GAO, which can offer policy suggestions to lawmakers.

<snip>

Citing the recent congressional clamor over executive compensation and new rules on credit cards, he said Democratic leaders may be wary of blocking legislation they feel is picking up popular support.

...more...

:pickupphoneandcall:

[DemReadingDU]

22. CNBC Dennis Kneale vs the financial bloggers

Anybody following the ongoing argument that the recession is over by CNBC Dennis Kneale vs the counter-argument the recession is not over by the financial bloggers?

6/29/09 Dennis Kneale: "The Great Recession Is Over" (1st Kneale video)
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis-kneale-great-recession-is-over.html

Several financial bloggers wrote in to Kneale, some anonymously...

6/30/09 Dennis Lets Zero Hedge Have It (2nd Kneale video)
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis-lets-zero-hedge-have-it.html

Karl Denninger's response is not anonymous...

6/30/09 To Dennis Kneale: You're An Idiot
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1175-To-Dennis-Kneale-Youre-An-Idiot.html

Kneale responds to Denninger, and Denninger reply

7/8/09 Kneale: You Asked For It (3rd Kneale video)
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1193-Kneale-You-Asked-For-It.....html

[Dr.Phool]

23. There's so many idiots on CNBC, it's hard to identify them.

[DemReadingDU]

24. That's the point of the responses from financial bloggers

Denninger, ZeroHedge, and others clearly have the data and facts showing the recession is not over. Maybe CNBC is trying to boost ratings? Or maybe this is a way for CNBC to inform viewers that the economy is not recovering?

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. They don't broadcast from a "news" room, more akin to a play room n/t

[AnneD]

29. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I gave up watching tv during Lent and just have never picked it back up with any degree of regularity . If I skip the look on the computer now and again, it may take me a while to here about some things, but I don't miss much. I do have to admit that when someone told me about Michael Jackson, I though they were joking and I waited for the punch line. But other than that-I don't waste much time getting my brain washed by the cooperate media line. I did see the Ascent of Money on PBS yesterday and recommend it highly. That is the sum of my financial viewing anymore. CNBC and those worthless pundits are just chasing the tail of the dog and wouldn't know what to do with a real story if it jumped out and bit them.

It continues to be very hot and dry in Texas. Almost no rain in June. We got a nice shower earlier this week. I swear I could hear our flora community sighing with relief, Grass has turned to straw it is so dry. It is bad in Houston, but worse around the state. We are hoping for rain this weekend, This weather has hurt crops so look for that to affect prices.

Well, I'm burning up daylight. Keep up the good work on the SWT guys. This is a really good source of financial news these days because al the rest is spun candy.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Hot 'n' dry here, too, Anne.

Looked like the Tucson area got some thunder bumpers last night, but nothing is making its way up to Apache Junction yet.

I gave up on tv years ago. I watch the occasional history show and Stewart and Olberman and Maddow when I can, but other than that, it's just a box in the living room. The important stuff ends up on youtube and DU anyway.

I learn a whole lot more here, too.



:hi:

[AnneD]

32. Mom lives in Gilbert....

we tend to get Az weather a few days later. And you are right-the info you need does show up on youtube,

Right back attcha

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

34. LOL, I didn't mean to imply I regularly watch CNBC

I never watch it. I've been following Kneale via youtubes embedded in the blogs. Much better financial info writing in blogs.

Sometimes I watch TV for the local news, maybe Olbermann and Maddow, and Cold Case on CBS Sunday evenings. That's about it.

[Dr.Phool]

33. I just got back from the gym.

In addition to the TV's on the walls, some of the treadmills have their own screen, and they're all hooked up to cable. I flash back and forth to CNBC every now and then to check the market. I can't hear them, because I don't bring a headset, but even with the closed captioning, I can't stomach them for more than a minute or two. I figure if I'm going to be bored on a treadmill, I might as well watch the Weather Channel.

The last snippet I watched on CNBC, was some fucking idiot talking about how much more money the average shopper has, since gas is so much lower than it was last year. They'll get out and start spending that windfall soon!

:puke: :puke:

Yeah, I feel so much richer, since I pay about $15 dollars less to fill my gas tank, which gets filled about twice, and sometimes only once a month. In the mean time Progress Energy has tacked a 30% surcharge on my electric bill, to maybe build 2 nuke plants, that won't even come on line until I'm dead and burned. Homeowners insurance is going through the roof, and I've even had to switch to cheaper vodka, because stoli was getting more expensive.

Yeah, I feel so much richer.

:puke: :puke:

[dixiegrrrrl]

45. The Depression has hit me too. No more Blue Sapphire.

Now I make my annual August Orange Blossom with Tanqueray.

What is the world coming to, I ask ya?

[AnneD]

31. The only thing Dennis Kneale has proved is that ....

he is not only a dip shit(per one blogger), but a stubborn stupid idiot. In the face of mathematical proof, he flips the argument and focuses on the bloggers instead of disputing their data. Makes me think he does it because he can't dispute their facts.

Another fact....Cheerleading will not lead us out of this depression, and yes, I call this a recession just like I said we were in a recession while you were cheering the rally. We have never fully recovered since 2002-a jobless recovery is not a recovery. Don't piss on me and tell me it's raining.

[MARALE]

41. I was hoping the dow would stay positive today

But I don't think that will happen. and Kick.

[Dr.Phool]

42. The last 30 minutes, anything can and does happen.

[hamerfan]

44. The Dr. calls it correctly!

Looks like it was up 4.76 for the day.
Wow, I can retire early! :sarcasm:

[Dr.Phool]

43. 565,000 new jobless claims. Only 4 reporting days.

I usually catch this following a holiday week. I guess I missed it this week.


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

Retail Sales And Unemployment

Notice the language here:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Escalating job worries and rainy weather dampened shoppers' appetite for buying summer staples like shorts and dresses, resulting in sharp sales declines for many merchants.

Dampened appetite?

Bah.

Here's a reality check - consumer credit capacity has hit the wall.

I noted this over a year ago, and started yelling about it. The shift of consumer spending to credit cards - the highest-interest means of financing payment - became apparent in the consumer credit report about that time.

This marked the final desperate attempt to keep spending beyond our means by the average American sheeple, and it was doomed to failure.

Now the failure is evident in consumer spending numbers across the board - including at bargain outlets like COSTCO.

Walmart stopped reporting their numbers. Gee, do you have to wonder why? They've got one of the best internal systems in existence for tracking who's spending and how much on what. In the months leading up to their cessation of reporting the shift to "necessary" items (e.g. food) was obvious in their reports.

Its against the law to lie, but nobody says you have to report this at all, so Walmart took the "easy way out" and simply stopped talking, rather than expose the truth where people could see it.

That doesn't change what the truth is, of course.

The obvious next question is what the impact on GDP is when retailers are reporting 6-10% declines in retail sales numbers, we have a ~30%ish drop in vehicle sales rates expected on a permanent basis by the automakers, and every indication is that a similar contraction is showing up in virtually every area of discretionary spending. Remember, when consumers spend less producers need to produce less, which means more people get laid off up and down the line - from production to sales to management - which of course causes an even larger drop in consumer spending.

"What is a 20% or more decline in GDP, Alex?"

This morning the market spiked based on the "better than expected unemployment numbers"; initial jobless claims 565,000 instead of 603,000 expected.

But let's not forget that this is still a half-million people who filed unemployment last week, never mind that Friday was the "legal" July 4th holiday and the unemployment offices were closed!

So we had a 4 day week instead of a 5 day one, and yet people jump up and down and scream "green shoots!"

Someone needs to remind people that when you remove 20% of the reportable days from a week, you shrink the reportable number by 20% or so too (less whatever behavioral shift has people showing up the previous day.)

Rick Santelli threw the appropriate amount of cold water on this report, given that continuing claims are now up to 6.88 million - up more than 170,000 over estimates!

As I have repeatedly said, continuing claims are what count - it is not whether you lose your job, it is whether you can find a new one. If the answer is no, the continuing claims number will continue to ramp even though the "initial claims" number comes down.

The answer is "no" to the question of "if you get laid off, can you find a new job."

Don't listen to the fools - there is no "green shoot" in that report.

[Festivito]

46. Debt: 07/06/2009 11,520,570,236,023.37 (UP 29,582,166,137.53) (Up 30B$.)

(Back to a noticeable increase. FICA not moving much.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,169,780,092,481.21 + 4,350,790,143,542.16
UP 29,989,200,037.82 + DOWN 407,033,900.29

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,811,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,549.39.
A family of three owes $112,648.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,028,489,743.57.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,420,892,478.62.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,278,283,043.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 114 reports in 167 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.12B$ per report, -0.02B$/day so far.
There were 189 reports in 279 days of FY2009 averaging 7.91B$ per report, 5.36B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,294 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/06/2009 11,520,570,236,023.37 BHO (UP 893,693,187,110.29 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,495,845,339,110.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon

36,576,501,597.57 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,855,938,432,764.30 in last 291 days.
That's 1,856B$ in 291 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 182% of that highest year ever only in 291 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 291 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3956853&mesg_id=3956859

[Festivito]

47. Debt: 07/07/2009 11,523,843,053,689.95 (UP 3,272,817,666.58) (Up a little.)

(Small change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,169,995,258,496.69 + 4,353,847,795,193.26
UP 215,166,015.48 + UP 3,057,651,651.10

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,818,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,559.17.
A family of three owes $112,677.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,908,677,914.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,529,986,400.84.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,246,862,250.78.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 115 reports in 168 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.14B$ per report, -0.03B$/day so far.
There were 190 reports in 280 days of FY2009 averaging 7.89B$ per report, 5.35B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,293 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/07/2009 11,523,843,053,689.95 BHO (UP 896,966,004,776.87 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,499,118,156,777.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********

36,491,363,693.93 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,859,211,250,430.88 in last 292 days.
That's 1,859B$ in 292 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 183% of that highest year ever only in 292 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 292 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3958439&mesg_id=3958564

[Festivito]

48. Debt: 07/08/2009 11,515,064,224,509.82 (DOWN 8,778,829,180.13) (Up a little, FICA down.)

(Small change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,170,616,284,217.07 + 4,344,447,940,292.75
UP 621,025,720.38 + DOWN 9,399,854,900.51

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,825,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,529.68.
A family of three owes $112,589.04. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,426,526,729.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,160,337,159.42.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 116 reports in 169 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.23B$ per report, -0.08B$/day so far.
There were 191 reports in 281 days of FY2009 averaging 7.80B$ per report, 5.30B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,292 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 18.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/08/2009 11,515,064,224,509.82 BHO (UP 888,187,175,596.74 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,490,339,327,597.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon
06/23/2009 +000,354,103,704.29 ------------********
06/24/2009 -034,732,231,983.69 -
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********

37,130,122,307.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,850,432,421,250.75 in last 293 days.
That's 1,850B$ in 293 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 182% of that highest year ever only in 293 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 293 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3960499&mesg_id=3962283