Fed: Unemployment Will Top 10 Percent This Year

[OhioChick]

Source: AP

2:56 pm EDT July 15, 2009

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve expects the economy this year will sink at a slower pace than it previously thought, but that unemployment will top 10 percent, according to a forecast released Wednesday.

The Fed now predicts the economy will shrink between 1 and 1.5 percent this year, an improvement from its old forecast issued in May. At that time, the Fed projected the economy would contract between 1.3 and 2 percent.

The upgrade comes from the expectation that the economy's downhill slide in the first half of 2009 wasn't as bad as previously thought. The Fed said the economy should start growing again in the second half of this year, although the pace is likely to be plodding.

Most Fed policymakers said it could take "five or six years" for the economy and the labor market to get back on a path of full health in the long term.

Against that backdrop, the Fed's forecast for unemployment this year worsened. The central bank predicted the jobless rate could rise as high as 10.1 percent, compared with the previous forecast of 9.6 percent.

Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/money/20062857/detail.html

[sasquatch]

1. Are those real #s or ones that have been screwed with?

[OhioChick]

3. Wonder what the "true" #'s are....those who no longer collect unemployment

But still can't find a job...

[cabluedem]

8. Its at 20-25 % in many counties across the country. What a load of Horse manure. 10% my @$$. nt

[Zhade]

6. 16.5% is the real number. There was a story on that in LBN the other day.

The number in the OP only includes those currently getting unemployment checks.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. That happened last year.

Using unfudged numbers.

[Grinchie]

4. I heard an Interview with Marc Faber on Alex Jones the other night

He had a great comment on Inflation that I thought was important to relate.

We are told that Inflation is in check, but the reality is that the cost for services such as Police, Fire, Water, Sewer, Schools, food, etc keeps rising, despite a deflationary economy with major job losses in range of 10%. With less money in the economy, prices certainly should deflate more rapidly than we are seeing, but they are not.

He went on to say just imagine what the inflation rate would be if Unemployment were just 5%. The thought being, that more money would be in the economy seeking the same limited number of goods.

It strikes me that the Government numbers of %10 are just a catch up attempt by the Government to hide the fact that Inflation is actually quite high, hoping that the general public don't catch on that the Unemployment rate was estimated to be 10% in 2003, and many in the IT field left, because their jobs disappeared, or they became Real Estate speculators and took advantage of the Housing Bubble.

The thought that the true inflation rate that we see today, coupled with the fact that unemployment is actually quite a bit higher than the reported figure, should frighten many people.

I think that the reported figure is only where it is because the Government cannot do any more jiggering with the index and has to at least vaguely resemble the reality that people see on the streets and their neighborhoods.

Be prepared for the third wave of foreclosures. We are on the cusp of another severe downturn I reckon.

[timeforpeace]

7. Good recap, thanks. Unfortunately, government costs like the ones you mention, never decline.

[cabluedem]

10. We cant lay the cops off. The donut shops would all close down. nt

[Oregone]

5. Looks like "We Guessed the Numbers Wrong"

[New Dawn]

9. Check out Shadowstats' unemployment data (they place it at over 20%)

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

[sarcasmo]

11. It topped 15 in Michigan and would be over 20 if those that fell off the unemployment rolls

Were properly counted.