STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday July 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday July 17, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 3

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 16, 2009



Dow... 8,711.82 +95.61 (+1.10%)

Nasdaq... 1,885.03 +22.13 (+1.19%)

S&P 500... 940.74 +8.06 (+0.86%)

Gold future... 935.40 -4.00 (-0.43%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.56 -0.05 (-1.28%)

30-Year Bond 4.44 -0.05 (-1.16%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Slower than chilled molasses.

Anyone else having this issue with DU?

[saigon68]

Yes its slow and BTW that's a Great Toon

Have a nice week-end too.


The Lurker here

[ozymandius]

5. Thank you for checking in, saigon68.

Tom Toles' rapier-sharp wit is my favorite way to end the week. He's no fool.

[hamerfan]

10. Seems back to normal speed

For me anyway.
Good morning all!

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

Ah Ha! Head and Shoulders!
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

The head-and-shoulders (HAS) reversal is one of the most useful but misunderstood patterns in technical analysis. At this moment in time, following a four day rally (still in progress), it has shown to be both useful and misunderstood at the same time. It is important to remember that one must always be both skeptical and mindful of patterns as they develop. This may seem like an enigmatic statement, so please hear me out. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 as it appeared last weekend.

-see chart-

The important feature at that time was the importance of 880 as a significant technical level, along with the developing HAS pattern. One could have suggested the June 23rd low as a point of the neckline; and if that were the case, the level of 880 would have been a “break” of the neckline. However, as of the close of last week’s trading, the neckline at 880 was cinched. There were four (4) straight closes right on 880 confirming this as the neckline somewhat. In addition, note the blue arrows signifying a high volume day where 880 was confirmed as an important technical level. Finally, since in this case, the proposed HAS was being evaluated as a reversal pattern (from up to down), the more bearish horizontal neckline deserved the benefit of the doubt versus the June 23rd lows which would make the pattern more bullish since the neckline would have been a rising one. (More ideal would have been a plunging neckline which is even more bearish than a horizontal neckline.)

....

Today’s Market

As you can see in the chart below within four trading days the S&P 500 index has moved back to near its not-so-old highs around 945, having come pretty far pretty fast. This is the technically important area of the chart. A decisive break over 945 confirms the action from early May to the present as a correction or continuation pattern within a longer term uptrend. It would be wise to be careful because a move just above 945 would get a lot of folks excited about “new highs,” and these folks would be as vulnerable as those who got excited about the “completed” head-and-shoulders pattern. About 950 (with appropriate stops entered) may turn out to be the perfect selling opportunity.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Jun
Briefing.com 520K
Consensus 524K
Prior 518K

08:30 Housing Starts Jun
Briefing.com 525K
Consensus 530K
Prior 532K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

18. June housing starts up 3.6% to 582,000 - housing starts down 46% year-on-year

U.S. June housing starts up 3.6% to 582,000
8:30am Today

U.S. June housing starts higher than 531,000 expec
8:30am Today

U.S. June housing starts strongest since Nov.
8:30am Today

U.S. housing starts down 46% year-on-year
8:30am Today

[Robbien]

52. Denninger's comment on this "good news"

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1229-What-Are-They-Smoking.html

What Are They Smoking. This is not good news.

How do you sell down the existing inventory, including the hidden inventory of foreclosures, when these fools are still building houses?

I get it - its summer, that's when you break ground on houses. This allows you to get the framing and exterior up before it gets cold and snows.

But we have millions of homes that have been foreclosed or will be foreclosed, and we have an insane amount of existing "listed" supply on the market. In the apartment/condo marketplace in some markets there is literally five or more years of supply! Go down to Miami and take a drive around at night - brand new buildings, open, occupied, with four or five lights on at night.

Really.

Building more into this sort of market environment is criminally insane. It is guaranteed to destroy the comparable values due to competition and will absolutely decimate lenders who are holding back foreclosures instead of putting them on the market.

The futures spiked a fair bit on this news release, but you have to wonder why anyone would consider this "bullish" news? Bullish for who? Foreclosure lawyers? Courthouse fees?

It is truly unbelievable that builders would be ramping construction into this market environment. I thought I had seen everything stupid under the sun, but this, among all else, takes the cake, even though these figures are coming off deeply depressed levels.

We need less construction, not more, until we clear the excess inventory - this sort of "build into a severe inventory overhang" is how you go bankrupt - with certainty.

What lending institutions are funding this sort of thing? Where are the bank regulators? The FDIC and OCC? The Fed?

SLEEPING (AGAIN), THAT'S WHERE!

I smell lots (hundreds) of bank failures about a year down the road out of this when that inventory is unable to be sold and the construction loans default.

I'm stunned - literally.

[KoKo]

53. There's still commercial & residential building going on where I live in NC...

As houses sit on the market...and shopping centers in good areas are left with only two or three occupied stores. The cranes are up building more apartment complexes and more shopping centers.

We scratch our heads asking the same question. Where are they getting the money and what are they thinking? It makes no more sense than when we went to the West Coast of Florida in 2006 and saw the incredible building and went around to some of these new "Gated Communities" that were sprouting up like mushrooms everywhere and folks were plunking down $400,000 and up for "carriage houses" of about 2000 square feet. We knew it would end badly...and it did. I don't get this building boomlet ongoing here when it's obvious there isn't a market for any of it. :eyes: Is it some new banking scam that isn't being reported on? TARP funds gone amok in the hands of builders who are buddies of the bankers?

[Demeter]

58. It's Partly the Fault of the Tax Law and Partly the Fault of the Banks

and they are just working with the tools they were given. What's a builder to do? Stop Building and do what?

When I was in NH, I had a good contractor friend who helped me get the house solarized. When he could, he built custom homes, and some speculative houses. And when he couldn't, he did renovations and repairs.

His preference of course was building a whole house: economy of scale.
But he was small enough and flexible enough to downsize.

Then you have these monster firms like Toll Brothers;

http://www.tollbrothers.com/homesearch/servlet/HomeSearch

Their Business model is predicated on infinite, continuous growth. They aren't built for downturns, the vagaries of the marketplace do not enter into their calculations. They cannot do anything except build. Before, if one area soured, they branched off into another. But this is a national and global recession--There is no escape!

There isn't even the option of going into renovations, upgrades, repairs, because the mortgage market especially the secondary or home equity line is totally TOTALLED.

The bigger they are, the harder they will fall.

[Zenlitened]

64. "New York City has 26 new hotels being built..."

"New York City has 26 new hotels being built with 16,324 rooms, bringing total rooms to 123,607."

News From 1930

[ozymandius]

4. Oil slips below $62 as traders eye company results

VIENNA – Oil prices slipped below $62 a barrel Friday, as investors weighed mostly positive second quarter corporate results against signs of sluggish crude demand.

Benchmark crude for August delivery was down 29 cents to $61.73 a barrel by late noon European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, the contract added 48 cents to settle at $62.02.

.....

Investors will be looking to reports from General Electric Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. on Friday

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery was steady at $1.71 a gallon and heating oil dipped by nearly 2 cents to fetch $1.58. Natural gas for August delivery slid by close to 9 cents to $3.581 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. DU is too slow. So I'll lighten the server load by taking my leave for awhile.

Maybe in an hour they will have this thing fixed.

[DemReadingDU]

7. very slow this morning, n/t

[Dr.Phool]

8. Good idea. For those who missed this yesterday....Daily Show.

Lenny Dykstra's Financial Career.


http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-july-14-2009/lenny-dykstra-s-financial-career

[Po_d Mainiac]

9. An absolute riot

:donut: Good Morning

[DemReadingDU]

24. That was hysterical!

:rofl:

[Demeter]

11. If Only All of the Banksters Were Swallowed by the Black Hole!

That's the problem with that cartoon, it creates hope where none exists.

My own particular hope and wish is that the Family is totally exposed, deposed, convicted, and C Street brothel is torn down. It's the focal point (or I could get much less polite by changing one letter) of the Real Elitists in our enslaved society.

It seems okay to me now...

I can't believe it's Friday again! What is going on here?

I wanted to do a Harry Potter weekend, but couldn't think of any good way to do that which wouldn't turn off anyone except the most fanatical fan girl...

The Beach Boys were such a blast last weekend, Let's do the Beatles!

[DemReadingDU]

22. Beatles!

Yeh! Yeh! Yeh!


If we continue the music theme, someday we could do Frank Sinatra/Bing Crosby/Dean Martin era, or maybe Elvis!

[Demeter]

37. Okay, Twist (and Shout) My Arm

[Hugin]

43. We could also have a...

"Monkees" weekend! :bounce:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Monkees#Notable_achievements

As well as, numerous relevant lyrics from various songs, there is the fact Michael Nesmith's Mom invented "Liquid Paper". Which, if we're ever to sort out and 'correct' the shenanigans of the Financial Elite (AKA The Corporate Welfare Barons) many thousands of gallons will be required. (Does it come in Red?)

"When Nesmith was 13 his mother invented a typewriter correction fluid later known commercially as Liquid Paper."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Nesmith

Oh, and then there's this...



http://www.monkees.net/DOCS/MMOBILE.HTM

[Demeter]

46. Oh yes! How Could I Forget!

So, we have the next month planned, almost...somebody keep track!

[UpInArms]

12. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.518 Change +0.240 (+0.31%)

US Dollar Forecast Bearish on Sentiment, but Range Levels Critical

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Dollar_Forecast_Bearish_on_1247753310781.html

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Bullish but Range High Remains Key
GBPUSD – Sentiment-Based Strategies Remain Long GBPUSD
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Rally Further vs US Dollar
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Looks to Gain Versus US Dollar
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Trades at Key Resistance

While the SSI is available once a week on DailyFX.com, you can receive SSI readings twice a day in DailyFX Plus Forex Intraday Trading Signals



Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning

Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning

EURUSD – Forex trading crowds have aggressively sold into Euro/US Dollar rallies, giving our contrarian trading systems clear signal to go long the EURUSD. In fact, three of our sentiment-based strategies have recently sold US Dollars against the Euro and other key counterparts. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are short. In detail, long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 5.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 13.1% stronger since last week. There is distinct risk that the EURUSD holds its long-standing trading range, but our contrarian sentiment bias currently calls for further gains.

...more...

Risk Appetite Tempered as Credit Threats Meet Strong Earnings

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Risk_Appetite_Tempered_as_Credit_1247795556531.html



• Risk Appetite Tempered as Credit Threats Meet Strong Earnings
• Where Does Long-Term Economic and Yield Growth Fit In?
• Policy Officials Trying to Keep the Doors Open to Fiscal Stimulus

The markets have seen a dramatic reversal in sentiment this past week. And, the source for this optimism? Earnings. Before Goldman Sachs reported record earnings earlier this week, however, the markets and risk appetite were folding under the weight of objective fundamentals that looked to pull speculation back to current conditions. Now traders have to ask whether this catalyst from earnings is the trigger for a larger trend or merely a temporary retreat from the reality of the market and global economy’s health. With second quarter GDP numbers starting to cross the wires and financial troubles still looming, the market may not hold an easy correlation to earnings for very long. Taking stock of sentiment through the current position of markets, the recent revival in risk appetite has nearly recharged the bullish trend that has been shaped since March. With its clear connection to investment flows, equities have been a beacon for this week’s rebound. A string of four, consecutive bullish sessions has driven the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Index more than 7 percent higher and within arm’s reach of surpassing the six month highs set in June. For the Forex market, the change in sentiment has catalyzed volatility in the yen crosses and other risk-sensitive pairs. The Carry Trade Index has rallied 2.5 percent since last week; but the real shift can be seen through price action as the pull back that opened this month is almost fully retraced. However, at this point, we need to consider what will happen when volatility fades. If sentiment cannot build on itself, we may not see critical breaks; and from there, tempered expectations for yield and burgeoning hazards in the background can accelerate another pullback.

A look at a chart of a equity or carry trade index shows a broken trend that is trying to reestablish itself. This is a good reflection of the fundamentals that underly this price action. Up until this week, economic readings and forecasts seemed to be leveling off. FOMC and IMF growth projections were offering modest upside revisions; but were still steeped in disclaimers. At the same time, the consistency in slow improvements behind economic data began to ebb. In turn, speculation that a recovery was at hand began to waver. Then, optimism was revived by a series of surprisingly strong earnings reports. With Goldman Sachs revealing record profits and blue chips like Intel beating forecasts, investors were ready to believe returns could be made even if it does take the economy time to find its way back to positive growth. However, the bar has been set high for future earnings releases; and in the meantime, there are other concerns for market participants to account for. Perhaps the most immediate threat to financial stability is CIT. On the verge of bankruptcy, the US government denied the company any further financial aid, deeming its potential failure not a systemic risk. In the end though, credit markets will be the judge of that. Also, while sentiment is jostled back and forth, second quarter growth readings will offer an unbiased state of affairs. China has already impressed, but the UK’s recession is expected to balloon in next week’s report.

...more...

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 07/15/2009 11,579,428,713,952.53 (UP 50,437,847,011.79) (Up 57B$.)

(Debt goes up fast for today while FICA side goes down a bit. My computer is so slow that I might not be noticing DU being slow. Oh well.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,238,613,847,252.09 + 4,340,814,866,700.44
UP 57,721,794,648.52 + DOWN 7,283,947,636.73

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,875,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,733.26.
A family of three owes $113,199.77. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 7,769,781,804.36.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,956,832,716.68.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 121 reports in 176 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.10B$ per report, 0.02B$/day so far.
There were 196 reports in 288 days of FY2009 averaging 7.93B$ per report, 5.40B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,285 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/15/2009 11,579,428,713,952.53 BHO (UP 952,551,665,039.45 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,554,703,817,040.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/25/2009 -002,856,149,844.34 --
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********

145,657,132,739.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,914,796,910,693.46 in last 300 days.
That's 1,915B$ in 300 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 188% of that highest year ever only in 300 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 300 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=post&forum=102&topic_id=3971295&mesg_id=3971369

[Festivito]

76. Debt: 07/16/2009 11,598,417,943,168.15 (UP 18,989,229,215.62) (Up 16B$.)

(Debt goes up for today and the FICA side joins it.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,254,750,253,086.17 + 4,343,667,690,081.98
UP 16,136,405,834.08 + UP 2,852,823,381.54

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,883,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,794.25.
A family of three owes $113,382.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,365,434,055.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,413,499,442.85.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 122 reports in 177 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.04B$ per report, 0.07B$/day so far.
There were 197 reports in 289 days of FY2009 averaging 7.99B$ per report, 5.45B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,284 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 19.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/16/2009 11,598,417,943,168.15 BHO (UP 971,540,894,255.07 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,573,693,046,255.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********

164,649,688,417.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,933,786,139,909.08 in last 301 days.
That's 1,934B$ in 301 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 190% of that highest year ever only in 301 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 301 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3973092&mesg_id=3973160

[Demeter]

14. JPMorgan chief hits at credit card rules

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6a89946a-71f2-11de-b7e1-00144feabdc0.html

By Francesco Guerrera in New York

Published: July 16 2009 12:22 | Last updated: July 17 2009 00:16

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, on Thursday hit out at strict rules on US credit cards, saying they would cost the bank’s loss-making card unit up to $700m next year.

His comments came after JPMorgan underlined its status as one of the winners from the crisis, beating expectations with second-quarter earnings of $2.7bn, up 36 per cent from a year ago, thanks to strong investment banking revenues.

The bank’s performance follows news of surging profits at Goldman Sachs.

Mr Dimon said that while JPMorgan supported most of the reforms introduced by the US government, some of the “fast and furious” regulatory activity had gone “a little bit too far”.

He singled out the credit card provisions, which from February will constrain lenders’ ability to raise rates for risky borrowers, and rules that propose to move most derivatives trading on to exchanges as two contentious areas.

The tough stance by JPMorgan reflects Wall Street’s new-found confidence in lobbying regulators and the government. After keeping a low profile during the crisis, many of the banks that repaid the bail-out funds are becoming more aggressive in Washington.

“ will reduce credit and it will at least reduce profitability for . . . the rest of this year and mostly next year,” Mr Dimon told investors.

JPMorgan – one of the biggest US card issuers – has already said the business is unlikely to be profitable in 2009 and 2010 as struggling consumers continue to default.

Mr Dimon said the bank’s forecast for that business included a cost of up to $700m as a result of the new law, which bans lenders from increasing interest rates on existing balances unless the borrower’s payment is at least 60 days late.

The law also requires that issuers reinstate lower interest rates on cards held by delinquent borrowers if they pay on time for six months.

Credit cards and consumer lending were a bleak spot for JPMorgan during the quarter, accounting for the bulk of its $9.7bn in credit costs and provisions.

But their performance was more than offset by rising revenues in the investment bank, which recorded earnings of $1.5bn – nearly four times its profits in the same period last year. Earnings per share were 28 cents, down from 54 cents a year ago.

JPMorgan’s investment bank earned record fees, driven by equity underwriting, and had the first quarter since the crisis began without a writedown in its loan and securities portfolio. The results were boosted by an $820m profit on JPMorgan’s investment portfolio.

[InkAddict]

41. BooHoo, Jamie

:nopity:

[Demeter]

15. Bank of America shows signs of recovery

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1e49f56-725f-11de-ba94-00144feabdc0.html

By Greg Farrell in New York

Published: July 17 2009 01:24 | Last updated: July 17 2009 01:24

Bank of America is expected to announce a profit when it reports earnings on Friday, while Citigroup is expected to post another loss – suggesting that BofA is continuing to emerge from the regulatory hole it has shared with Citi in recent months.

But the revelation that BofA has been operating since May under the terms of a “memorandum of understanding” from the US Federal Reserve is yet another sign that the bank, like Citi, still has some distance to go before it is able to join JPMorgan Chase in the ranks of universal banks in top-notch health.

The memorandum, issued by the Fed in May and first reported in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, called for BofA to revamp its board of directors, which had been widely criticised for its regional flavour and lack of banking expertise.

The memorandum, or MOU, is similar to the agreement that Citi entered into last year with one of its regulators, the Office of the Comptroller, to shake up its own board. The Financial Times reported on Thursday that Citi is close to entering a second MOU, this one with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, affecting management and governance issues.

The MOU is not the first similarity between the two banks. Citi needed two infusions of capital, totalling $45bn, from the government’s troubled asset relief programme last year. BofA also needed two Tarp infusions from its regulators totalling $45bn.

BofA’s memorandum from the Fed came in the wake of a shareholder vote in late April to strip chief executive Ken Lewis of his dual title as chairman of the board. The MOU called for BofA to revamp its board, replacing individuals who had little background in finance with banking industry veterans.

In the months since the memo was sent to BofA headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, the bank’s board has undergone a huge transformation, with six board members leaving and four new board members signing on.

But the transformation of BofA’s board is not complete, says a source familiar with the matter. BofA is expected to add one or two more banking experts to its board, and possibly remove a like number of non-banking members.

According to one executive recruiter who specialises in financial institutions, BofA’s new board, which used to have a strongly regional flavour, now has a broader national base. But this recruiter said BofA was still lacking a strong international representation, especially in the wake of the bank’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch, which bolstered BofA’s overseas operations.

But Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of the Yale School of Management thinks the new BofA board is a vast improvement over what went before. “The BofA board already contains people who have global savvy,” he says. “Just having a differently pronounced surname is not going to give them any special expertise”.

[UpInArms]

17. BofA operating under secret regulatory sanction: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56F15X20090716?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

(Reuters) - Bank of America Corp is operating under a secret U.S. regulatory sanction that requires it to overhaul its board and address perceived problems with risk and liquidity management, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.

Rarely disclosed publicly, the so-called memorandum of understanding (MOU) gives banks a chance to work out their problems without the glare of outside attention, the paper said.

Financial institutions that fail to address deficiencies can be slapped with harsher penalties that include a publicly announced cease-and-desist order, the newspaper said.

According to the paper, the order was imposed in early May, shortly after shareholders of the bank stripped Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis of his duties as chairman.

The MOU is the most serious procedural action taken against Bank Of America by federal regulators since the financial crisis erupted, the newspaper said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Bank of America credit losses soar, profit falls

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1746843420090717?sp=true

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) posted a quarterly profit that topped Wall Street forecasts, but the largest U.S. bank warned of a fresh surge in troubled loans from credit card, mortgage and business customers due to the weak economy.

Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said tough economic conditions will hurt results into 2010. The bank set aside $13.38 billion for bad loans for a second straight quarter, and said net charge-offs totaled $8.7 billion, up 25 percent from the prior three-month period.

Nonperforming assets surged 21 percent to $30.98 billion. The bank added $4.63 billion to reserves for bad loans, ending with $35.78 billion.

"Growth in charge-offs and non-performing assets still scares the daylights out of me," said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets.

Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America said on Friday second-quarter net income applicable to common shareholders fell 25 percent to $2.42 billion, or 33 cents per share, from $3.22 billion, or 72 cents, a year earlier.

...more...

[InkAddict]

42. A whole symphony of

:nopity: for covering Mozilla's bloated behind...

[Demeter]

16. Algosaibi sues Saad Group owner

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34fb0b92-7235-11de-ba94-00144feabdc0.html

By Andrew England in Abu Dhabi

Published: July 16 2009 23:31 | Last updated: July 16 2009 23:31

One of Saudi Arabia’s most powerful family-owned companies has filed a lawsuit in which it accuses Maan Al-Sanea, the Saudi billionaire, of “massive fraud” and alleges that he “misappropriated approximately $10bn as a result of his frauds”.

Ahmed Hamad Algosaibi and Brothers Company (AHAB) filed the suit in New York in answer to a case filed against it by Mashreqbank, a UAE-based bank, over $150m (€106m) allegedly owed to it by AHAB.

Such a public dispute is virtually unheard of in the Gulf. The court document alleges Mr Sanea, who is the owner of the Saad Group, a conglomerate with finance and property operations, is also a senior executive of AHAB’s financial service division, the “Money Exchange.”

Saad Group has said it had no business links with AHAB “except on an arms’ length commercial basis”. Mr Sanea is married to the daughter of Abdelaziz Algosaibi, one of the founders of AHAB and he has worked for the Algosaibi family.

Last month, the Saudi central bank froze Mr Sanea’s personal accounts, and it has been reported it took similar actions against some of the Algosaibi family. The Algosaibis have not confirmed or denied the reports.

”We have not seen or been served with this claim,” a Saad Group spokesman told the Financial Times. “If we are served with such a claim, we will respond to it vigourously through specialist counsel, confident in both the true facts and the judicial process.”

The lawsuit filed by AHAB claims that “Al Sanea obtained loans frequently using forged or falsified documents and then diverted the funds received to his own use.

“AHAB presently estimates that al Sanea misappropriated approximately $10bn as a result of his frauds.”

Mashreq filed a complaint against AHAB in late May. That alleged that AHAB had entered into a foreign exchange transaction with the UAE bank, by which Mashreq would remit through a wire transfer of $150m to an account in the name of the Saudi group at Bank of America in New York on April 28, according the suit filed by AHAB.

In its complaint, Mashreq alleged that AHAB had agreed to transfer 564.3m Saudi riyals ($151m) to Mashreq’s account at National Commercial Bank, another Saudi bank, on May 5. The complaint alleges that while the dollar transfer was received, AHAB failed to make the riyal transfer.

AHAB says it only became aware of the existence of the transaction after Mashreq began its court action.

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. Karl speaks plain English...link below

http://market-ticker.org/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

[Demeter]

23. The Chinese, if unable to fund their operating expenses with debt sales...

"Here's the problem - The Chinese, if unable to fund their operating expenses with debt sales, will be forced to sell something - like US Treasuries - to do so."

One must wonder WHY the Chinese bought the Treasuries, if not as a store of funds to operate? what's the big deal, if they have to sell them?

In fact, one has to wonder why the hell the Chinese don't pay cash for everything, since they have it?

Have I missed something here? Is there some mental block or genetic failing that keeps me from getting the point?

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. T's are supposed to as good as cash, but pay interest

what's the big deal, if they have to sell them?

It's not if there are buyers. It is if there is no demand. They would have to sell at a discount. That would also force the price down on "NEW" issues competing in the same market. Lower price = higher yield. In short order this would work it's way into the mortgage market just as all the Alt-A and Option ARM's run out of clock.

[Demeter]

36. So? It's Only What America Deserves

[UpInArms]

20. Lawmakers slam Paulson on BofA-Merrill deal

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1640967120090716?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=35&sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers on Thursday ripped into former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson over the government's role in Bank of America's merger with Merrill Lynch and other actions to cope with the deep financial crisis that gripped the country last year.

<snip>

Lawmakers broadened their attacks, angrily asking Paulson, a former chief executive of Goldman Sachs, to explain changes in administration policy during the crisis and saying he had conflicts of interest in decisions involving Wall Street firms.

<snip>

"The lasting contribution of this committee's investigation will be exposing Treasury and the Fed's failure to require meaningful accountability from systemically significant banks in exchange for federal bailouts," Kucinich said.

Lawmakers of both parties expressed frustration at Paulson for seeking congressional approval of a $700 billion fund to buy toxic assets from banks only to use it to take equity stakes in banks.

...more...

[Zenlitened]

62. Memo to Congress: Skepticism, tough questions, righteous outrage & tough, non-negotiable rules...

... all have to come BEFORE you hand over the $$$.

When it comes AFTER, many of the more cynical among us might think it's just a show you're putting on for us chumps in the cheap seats, a series of skits with a little song-and-dance in between, before you send us on our way.

[UpInArms]

21. Worst behind us but more stimulus needed: Roubini

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE56F5TS20090716?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=35&sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists who accurately predicted the magnitude of the financial crisis, said on Thursday that the worst of the turmoil has passed.

But Roubini emphasized the United States will still need a second fiscal stimulus, possibly by the end of this year, as the unemployment rate quickly approaches 10 percent.

Developed economies are bottoming out or close to doing so, but the recovery will be anemic, with the United States remaining in recession throughout the year, said Roubini, who is chairman of RGE Global Monitor.

"There is light at the end of the tunnel, there is a bottoming out of the U.S. and of the global economy. And the light at the end of the tunnel for once is not an incoming train," Roubini told investors at an event organized by the Chilean government in New York.

<snip>

The economist expects U.S. unemployment will top 10 percent by the end of 2009, weighing on domestic consumption and the retail sector.

"I think we may need, in fact, a fiscal stimulus some time early next year or before the end of this year," he told reporters after delivering a speech at the event.

"It might be in the $200 (billion) to $250 billion range -- not too small, not too big," he added.

...more...

[Demeter]

26. I Totally Disagree--The Worst Is NOT Behind Us

Not for the nation, and not for the little people who comprise the nation. Not even for the Big Banks and Big Corporations, who would be nothing without the little people who keep them in business. Not even for the Obama Administration, which seems to give as much regard to the individuals who make up this nation as to ants underfoot at a picnic.

I'm getting really cranky here, which is not good. This is a real vacation day for me, or what is the closest I will come to one....

[Dr.Phool]

29. Roubini says the story is bullshit!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 16, 2009

STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI


The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:


“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

“RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com”

[mnhtnbb]

32. Well, that ought to sell off yesterday's gains.

[Roland99]

44. And yet who do we have running Treasury and the Fed?

*sigh*

[Dr.Phool]

31. And Denninger chimes in... "CNBC, you owe America an apology"

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1226-CNBC-You-Owe-America-An-Apology.html

[KoKo]

56. That is an excellent watch...

I had CNBC on late yesterday and saw them covering their butts on the Roubini statement. They are such shills and they should be called down for "market manipulation."

When Stewart went after Cramer I thought they might change...but they've actually gotten worse. From their "Fast Money Traders" who laugh among themselves while "pumping and dumping" and the "sexy babe" silliness to Kneale and Kudlow and the rest, they are a disgrace. Why would I watch, one might ask?

Because they are part of what is bringing down the country. Watching them operate reveals much about what needs reform. Better to know than keep getting taken advantage of, I guess.

[AnneD]

78. I second that....

he is shooting straight and hitting the marks. Many of these shows are quick to tell you they are for "entertainment". I wouldn't even say that-fantasy maybe, but certainly not entertainment and defiantly not fact.

[UpInArms]

27. Marc Faber says ultimate crisis still coming -CNBC

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG41907420090717

July 17 (Reuters) - The world has not seen the end of the financial crisis and the recent surge in markets was a result of excess liquidity coming from central banks, Marc Faber told CNBC in an interview.

"If you pump money into the system and you create large fiscal deficits, you create volatility," Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, told CNBC in remarks reported on its website.

"We've seen an intermediate low in March, we'll rally for a year or so or maybe 18 months -- the ultimate crisis will happen much later, and the ultimate crisis would clean the system," he added.

Faber, who did not forecast a precise time for that crisis, told CNBC that firing half the government workers in the world would be one way of dealing with the crisis.

...more...

I guess this is a counterweight nut to Cramer?

:shakesheadindisgust:

[mnhtnbb]

33. How about firing half the financial 'journalists' instead?

[spotbird]

61. When are they going to spike his Kool-Aid?

Also, what are we supposed to do with the news? Assuming his perspective is correct.

[AnneD]

28. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I was all excited when I thought I would be the 3rd recommendation, but I have had major problems. I drove up to my brother's place and picked up my niece for her week in the big city vacation. She lives on a farm, and this is a real treat for her. It is so nice to see the world through kid's eyes again. She is impressed by funny things-how tall the buildings are, the inflatable balloon creatures on businesses, and all the colourful lights.

What did I see on my trip. The effects of the drought have grown-it will be a tough year for farmers. Gas was anything from 2.17-2.39. All the lots with heavy equipment were filled with unsold equipment as well as the car dealerships. Bro said that prices in at the auction barns were depressed. That is good in the short run but bad in the long term. Lots of farmers are selling off here in Texas-culling and downsizing their herds.

I was out of touch with the news and markets but from the size of it-I didn't miss much. My conversations with locals don't bode well for Dems. Of course Dallas is a major GOP hot bed-but the lack of punishment for the criminals on Wall Street (giving bonuses instead of jail time) really has chapped folks around here. They are starting to lump Dems with the fat cats and worse yet....the GOP. I think in marketing that is called brand confusion. And when you can't distinguish one brand from the other, you have not engender loyality.

Well, we have a busy day around the city.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

38. Where's Tansy With Her Stamp!

It's not like Obama and Pelosi and Reid haven't been warned repeatedly.

[Tansy_Gold]

54. I'm here, I'm here!

Now, what did I just rubber stamp?


Tansy Gold, having computer problems of her own today and desperately trying to fix them by 10:00.

[Demeter]

59. Now That's What I Call a Friend

:rofl::rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Stamps without even asking for details!

[AnneD]

63. Tansy, Demeter.........

I am sure we are not the only folks that are feeling that way. I pulled in to a roadside stop...Buckee's. They are new to Texas. It is a place where you can actually get healthy road food along with the usual tourist goodies and gas. I don't mind plugging them-they are pretty good if you aren't adventurous about road food. I was road weary and we needed gas. Some one had placed a sticker on the pump. it said Bend Over (the B O capitalized and the O like Obama's campaign sign)....Bend Over, change is coming. I am sad to say I agree these days. The majority of the economic team needs to be canned, and other programs don't go far enough. He's copped out and is playing it safe for re-election. But many of his base may not show up for the party this time around. But that is just MHO.



Side note-We packed our own food but did get some real Czech koala ches from West, Texas. West is a town founded by Czech immigrants. First time I ever went there-the town signs were all in Czech and so was the daily newspaper. The town has a beautiful old church. The folks at the bakery said business was down a tad, but they have been in biz since the early 20's. People that know always head to the Village Bakery to get fresh Czech pastries and hot local news.

[Robbien]

34. Fed set to support CMBS investment---Feds going into commercial mortgage security market

The Federal Reserve was on Thursday expected to lend money to investors such as hedge funds to allow them to buy securities backed by commercial mortgages, a part of the credit markets that remains highly dysfunctional.

Providing cheap loans for purchases of existing commercial mortgage-backed securities is the US central bank’s first venture into funding securities created before the credit crisis rather than lending money for new loans.

“This takes some tension out of the market,” said Alan Todd, analyst at JPMorgan. “The Fed’s actions will not make a bad loan good or improve the fundamentals of real estate, but they should at least mean the problems do not get worse than what is already anticipated.”

Although the Fed was also willing to lend money to investors to buy securities backed by newly created mortgage loans, there were no deals expected to be ready on time for Thursday’s funding deadline.

There are a number of new CMBS deals in the works that may be ready for the Fed’s next monthly loan date in August, made as part of the $1,000bn term asset-backed loan facility (Talf), which is also propping up financing for loans backed by credit cards and other consumer debt.

Already, the Fed’s backing of the commercial mortgage market, where new financing from banks has been hard to come by and where funding from CMBS is non-existent, has pushed down borrowing costs by tightening spreads.

The Fed will lend money to hedge funds and other investors to buy CMBS that have top triple-A credit ratings. With hundreds of billions of dollars of CMBS recently downgraded, this has created a split in the market, with triple-A deals trading well and other deals trading poorly.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e609021e-7234-11de-ba94-00144feabdc0.html

[Robbien]

35. Analysts Suddenly Notice The Bomb Inside GE Capital (hint: commercial RE securities)

GE's earnings today are likely to be irrelevant because Wall Street is now worried about GE's long-term exposure to commercial real-estate, the WSJ says.

And no wonder.

In April, when concerns about the real estate first surfaced, Steve Eisman of FrontPoint wrote a detailed analysis concluding that the company has $40-$45 billion of embedded losses in its commercial real-estate portfolio.

If these losses were taken all at once, they would wipe out the company. As it is, they'll likely weigh on GE's earnings for years.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-analysts-suddenly-worried-about-ges-huge-investments-in-real-estate-2009-7

[Demeter]

39. NO NO NO!!

We do NOT BAIL OUT HEDGE FUNDS, FOR CHRISSAKES!

When will the madness stop?

[Robbien]

45. Seeking Alpha has an article out on a case study of current RE securities

RE securities that banks and hedges are right now still creating and selling.



Basically the solicitation they put out is obviously full of lies (such as projections of a bankrupt tenant doubling their future rental footage) but banks and hedges keep putting the securities together expecting taxpayers will be left holding the bag while banks and hedges walk away with bonuses.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/149469-case-study-of-toxic-commercial-real-estate-marketed-by-a-major-investment-bank

[Tansy_Gold]

55. The madness will stop when

all the citizens are completely bled dry

or

They rise up and make it stop.



TG, in depressed mode today

[UpInArms]

47. CMBS that have top triple-A credit ratings

[Tansy_Gold]

69. Okay -- WHERE'D YOU GET THEM SMILEYS????

I am coolness-challenged and I love all this cute shit but I have no clue where to get it (and probably no clue how to use it).

However, I did fix my computer problem today all by myself.



Tansy Gold, dislocating shoulder to pat self on back

[UpInArms]

75. hiya Tansy G!

I stole 'em :)

here's the addy

http:// smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_11_6.gif

just take that space out and voila!



I've got lots of 'em tucked away

http:// smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_1_28.gif



http:// img.photobucket.com/albums/v620/lpbk2713/redsoap.gif



http:// img.photobucket.com/albums/v620/lpbk2713/kissass.gif



http://www. cosgan.de/images/more/bigs/c016.gif



http:// img.photobucket.com/albums/v620/lpbk2713/dedhorse.gif



http:// web.mac.com/andytiedye/Site/giveup.gif



http:// img.photobucket.com/albums/v365/pacalo/donkeykiss.gif

[Demeter]

40. Solar power plants planned for Sahara

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/759b35a6-6f00-11de-9109-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F759b35a6-6f00-11de-9109-00144feabdc0.html%3Fftcamp%3Drss&_i_referer=&ftcamp=rss

Around a dozen companies are set to launch a renewable energy initiative on Monday that its backers claim could within a decade provide Europeans with electricity generated from the Sahara – at a cost of €400bn ($557bn).

Munich Re, the German insurer, Deutsche Bank, utilities RWE and Eon and industrial conglomerate Siemens are among the bluechip names that will form a company to explore the technical and geopolitical challenges of peppering the deserts of North Africa and the Middle East with solar mirrors.

By joining together hundreds of solar thermal power plants and wind farms with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission cables under the Mediterranean sea, the founders of the Desertec Industrial Initiative hope one day to supply 15 per cent of Europe’s electricity needs.

Concentrating solar power plants use the sun’s heat to generate electricity. Hundreds of mirrors focus the sun’s rays on to a receiver containing a heat transfer fluid, such as oil. This heat energy is used to produce steam which drives a turbine, much like in a traditional power station. Unlike photovoltaic solar cells, CSP plants are able to generate electricity at night or on cloudy days, by storing the heat they produce.

Compared by Wulf Bernotat, chief executive of Eon, with the challenge of putting a man on the moon, the Desertec project would require the creation of a €45bn electricity super-grid covering Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

CSP explained

Hundreds of mirrors focus the suny’s rays onto a receiver containing a heat transfer fluid, eg. oil, writes Chris Bryant

This heat energy is used to produce steam which drives a turbine, much like in a traditional power station.

Unlike photovoltaic solar cells, CSP plants are able to generate electricity at night or on cloudy days, by storing the heat they produce.

Scientists estimate that covering 3 per cent of surface of the Sahara with solar power plants would be sufficient to meet the world’s energy needs.

The world’s deserts receive more energy from the sun in six hours than mankind consumes in a year.

CSP require lots of water to aid cooling, a resource not commonly associated with desert climates. However, scientists are developing other cooling methods.
A study by the German Aerospace Centre estimated the total cost of the project at €395bn.

Although feted in the German media, Desertec is not without its detractors, who see it is an expensive flight of fancy, first cooked up by ardent professors and political idealists, and now embraced by corporate spin.

However, the initiative has already won an army of powerful supporters, including Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, who laud its potential to cut greenhouse gases.

Although companies joining the consortium acknowledge the project’s complexity, they insist the technology is ready to implement it. Concentrating solar power plants have been used in California since the 1980s.

Meanwhile, HVDC cables are already capable of transporting power over hundreds of kilometres without large efficiency losses. “The project has been on the drawing board for 30 years and now for the first time it has become technically feasible,” said Wolfgang Dehen, chief executive of Siemens Energy.

Power companies are keen to be associated with the project but have also stressed the practical difficulties involved.

On a recent visit to the UK to talk about Eon’s investments in low-carbon energy, which are principally in wind power, Frank Mastiaux, chief executive of Eon’s climate and renewables division, warned that the time horizon of such projects was “very long”.

[InkAddict]

57. Alas, nothing left for investment opportunities...but it begs for

an Onion-like response so here goes...


Around a dozen companies are set to launch a renewable energy initiative on Monday that its backers claim could within 5 minutes wipe out the national debt, and would almost be free of charge.

Tbe newly formed conglomerage plans to embark on a venture to explore the technical and geopolitical challenges of collecting the oral CO2 emissions from bankers, politicians, and mainstream media purveyors of spin.

By joining together hundreds of oral pontifications and with current distribution channels already in place across the nation the founders of the Green Shooters Initiative hope one day to eliminate the financial deficits that plaque everyone.

Concentrating the CO2 emissions so gleaned and speculating on its potential for usefulness could re-invigorate stagnant markets and bring hundreds of new suckers onto Wall Street. Collecting the oral emissions onto a receiver that would use drool in a heat exchanger much like in a traditional power station would create a whole new "green" industry. Unlike photovoltaic solar cells, CSP plants would be able to generate electricity at night or on cloudy days simply by storing the heat they produce. In fact, it would work most efficiently when the weather was bad.

J Diamond says the project would require a nationwide super-grid of drool collection barrels and condenser units modified from current A/C units.

Scientists estimate that collecting just 3 per cent of the oral emissions and drool from the remaining population would be sufficient to meet the country's need for new derivitive ventures that would quickly pay down the deficits encountered by the Fed and the Treasury.

The world’s bankers, politicians, and media personnel contribute more CO2 emissions in an hour than the US population kindles in brain cells during one whole episode of WipeOut.

The project, however, would require lots of drool to aid cooling, a resource not commonly associated with desert climates. However, scientists are developing other cooling methods. Dry ice seems a possible substitute because of its fogging attributes.

Although feted by fundamentalists and PETA, OralCatch is not without its detractors, who see it is an expensive flight of fancy, first cooked up by ardent professors and political idealists, and now embraced by popular spin and viewers of WipeOut who say it will ruin the quality of babbble and humorous failures to complete the foamy obstacles courses as too much CO2 would be emitted during laughing attacks.

However, the initiative has already won an army of powerful detractors, including Simon Cowl, James Cramer, and a host of Beltway and Wall Street Insiders who don't want their emissions to be collected and held for ransom in brazillions of drool tanks.

Although companies joining the consortium acknowledge the project’s complexity which defies documentation and explanation to regulators, they insist the technology is ready to be implemented, having been field tested in Bollywood. So successful has it been, that the State of California has been able to set up brand new solar program, once thought to be a veritable pipe(line)dream.

Meanwhile, cable networks are already capable of transporting power over hundreds of kilometres without large efficiency losses. “The project has been on the drawing board for 30 years and now for the first time it has become technically feasible said a host of derivitive seeking C-Street Fornicators.

Power companies are keen to be associated with any new project in which initial outlay for resources would be negligible, but have also stressed the practical difficulties involved in persuading the masses of such a good thing. Most will likely keep their mouths shut and continue to follow along.

On a recent visit to the diminishing polar cap to talk about investments in high-carbon emission gathering, primarily now used for scrubbing the chief executive of the initiative's climate and renewables division, warned that the time horizon of such projects was “very long”.

[Demeter]

60. Outstanding Riff! You Get the Golden Onion!

The Golden Onion is an award I have just invented for the occasion. I hope we will see many more submissions in this vein and more winners soon!

[Demeter]

48. Russian economy plummets 10.1%

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6abb81a2-715f-11de-a821-00144feabdc0.html

By Catherine Belton in Moscow

Published: July 15 2009 19:47 | Last updated: July 16 2009 15:34

Russia’s economy shrank 10.1 per cent in the first half of this year, the economy minister said on Wednesday, its worst decline since the early 1990s.

Sberbank, the state-controlled savings bank, has seen profits fall 98 per cent
The credit crunch, falling commodity prices and a gradual rouble devaluation have shattered 10 years of rapid growth but there are signs that the pace of economic decline is slowing.

Industrial production contracted at its slowest year-on-year pace in six months. At 12.1 per cent in June the fall was less than government forecast and an improvement on May’s 17.1 per cent fall in output.

“We can, with caution, talk about some moderation of the pace of contraction,” said Elvira Nabiullina, economy minister. The economy ministry forecasts overall gross domestic product contraction of 8 per cent to 8.5 per cent this year, with growth resuming in 2010 but at only 1 per cent.

Economists said Russia was showing signs of nearing the bottom of a precipitous economic collapse as oil prices steadied at about $60 a barrel, after falling as low as $35 at the beginning of the year, and inflation started to slow. The economy ministry’s revised forecast for annual inflation is still high, at 12-12.5 per cent, but down from 13.3 per cent last year.

“Higher oil prices have created a sense of stability. But essentially we’re talking about a much slower rate of decline rather than growth,” said Rory MacFarquhar, senior economist at Goldman Sachs in Moscow.

Increased revenues owing to higher oil prices are yet to find their way into the rest of the economy as the banking system remains paralysed by fear over the growth in bad loans. Overall lending fell again in June by 0.3 per cent, said Gennady Melikyan, first deputy central banker, despite the government’s efforts to pump budget money through the biggest state banks as private banks, fearful of bad loans, cut back lending.

Profits at Sberbank plummeted 98 per cent in the first quarter, the state­controlled savings bank said this week, as it increased bad loan provisions 12-fold. “Even as the rest of the world is seeing more green shoots, the structure of the Russian economy is such that 2010 and throughout the rest of the year is still going to be difficult,” Anton Karamzin, the bank’s chief finance officer, told investors.

The central bank predicts that bad loans might reach 12 per cent, a level that would wipe out bank profits. But bankers say they could reach as high as 20 per cent of credit portfolios

Russia’s government is still debating how to fund growing budget deficits. The government is expected to rack up a budget deficit of 7.4 per cent of GDP, and 7.5 per cent next year, above the 5 per cent it originally planned for 2010.

[Demeter]

49. Swiss tax rules lure McDonald’s from UK

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4534cacc-6f18-11de-9109-00144feabdc0.html

By Philip Stafford in London

Published: July 12 2009 20:41 | Last updated: July 12 2009 23:05

McDonald’s is to leave London for Geneva, joining the growing ranks of US companies moving their European headquarters to take advantage of preferential intellectual property tax laws.

The fast-food group, which will open its head office in the Swiss city in the autumn, said the move had been almost a year in the planning.

The Swiss tax regime, particularly for intellectual property, has become increasingly attractive for foreign companies, particularly the regional European headquarters of US multinationals. PRAY TELL WHAT INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY MCDONALD'S OWNS?

Kraft, Procter & Gamble, Google, Electronic Arts and Yahoo have switched from the UK to Switzerland in recent years, while Informa, the UK publisher, is changing its tax domicile to the country.

McDonald’s said its decision was not prompted by changes in the UK taxation of foreign profits from intellectual property rights made by Alastair Darling, the finance minister, this year. However, the company said the move “enables us to conduct the strategic management of key international intellectual property rights, including the licensing of those rights to our franchisees in Europe, from Switzerland”.

McDonald’s has spread much of its operations around six or seven cities in Europe, but its headquarters has long been in London, where it opened its first outlet in 1974.

The growing success of Switzerland, Luxembourg and Ireland at attracting multinationals is causing disquiet in European centres such as London, although the Swiss lifestyle and efficient transport have also been cited as contributing factors behind corporate decisions.

Under the UK tax rules that came into force at the start of the month, McDonald’s would be paying tax on foreign profits relating to intellectual property twice over.

The group, which said its UK business would remain unaffected, also said it expected its overall British annual tax rate to remain unchanged at about 30 per cent.

Several senior members of McDonald’s Europe’s management team will relocate to Geneva, including including Denis Hennequin, president of McDonald’s operations in Europe.

The issue of companies moving their main centre of operations outside the UK has dogged the UK Treasury.

Mr Darling last year bowing to pressure and scrapped reforms to the taxation of foreign profits that threatened to provoke an exodus of companies from the UK.

Since the start of 2008, WPP, Shire, Regus, Henderson, Charter, Beazley, Brit Insurance and UBM have all announced that they are moving their tax base out of the UK.

[Demeter]

50. Boutique banks win bigger share of M&A fees

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b60c222a-6f15-11de-9109-00144feabdc0.html

By Lina Saigol and Megan Murphy in London

Published: July 12 2009 20:01 | Last updated: July 12 2009 23:04

Independent investment firms are taking a greater share of advisory fees than ever as companies turn to old-fashioned skills in an uncertain market.

Boutique banks, which provide advice on mergers and acquisitions and restructurings, accounted for 14 per cent of global M&A fees so far this year – the highest level since records began, according to Dealogic.

The data show that top boutiques such as Lazard, Evercore and Gresham Partners are gaining ground in a market that is well off the highs of past booms. Global M&A volume totalled $1,140bn in the first half of 2009, the lowest since 2004.

At the height of the dotcom bubble, boutiques accounted for 8 per cent of M&A revenues, while by 2007 their market share had risen to 12 per cent.

“With the days of easy credit gone, structuring deals has reverted to the somewhat old-fashioned skills that have little to do with financial engineering and everything to do with long-term strategy, with persuasion of often-sceptical investors and with people,” Anthony Fry, senior partner at Evercore, said. “Suddenly, grey hair and experience has become fashionable.”

[Demeter]

51. Note by 'teenage scribbler' causes sensation

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/035e83fe-6f18-11de-9109-00144feabdc0.html


...Morgan Stanley’s European media analysts asked Matthew Robson, one of the bank’s interns from a London school, to describe his friends’ media habits. His report proved to be “one of the clearest and most thought-provoking insights we have seen. So we published it,” said Edward Hill-Wood, head of the team.

However, he made no claims for its statistical rigour.

As elderly media moguls gathered at the Allen & Co conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, to fawn over Twitter and fret over their business models, Mr Robson set out a sobering case that tomorrow’s consumers are using more and more media but are unwilling to pay for it.

“Teenagers do not use Twitter,” he pronounced. Updating the micro-blogging service from mobile phones costs valuable credit, he wrote, and “they realise that no one is viewing their profile, so their tweets are pointless”.

His peers find it hard to make time for regular television, and would rather listen to advert-free music on websites such as Last.fm than tune into traditional radio. Even online, teens find advertising “extremely annoying and pointless”.

Their time and money is spent instead on cinema, concerts and video game consoles which, he said, now double as a more attractive vehicle for chatting with friends than the phone.

Mr Robson had little comfort for struggling print publishers, saying no teenager he knew regularly reads a newspaper since most “cannot be bothered to read pages and pages of text” rather than see summaries online or on television.

Executives and investors have grown fascinated by the opinions of teenagers. Rupert Murdoch, 78, has described himself as a “digital immigrant” and his young daughters as “digital natives”, while UBS pulled in an 18-year-old three years ago to demonstrate MySpace to portfolio managers.

[bread_and_roses]

65. "oh, what a world, what a world!" (the wicked witch, melting)

can we have a "Wizard of Oz" weekend soon? (my apologies if it's already been done and I missed it)

[Demeter]

70. To Tell the Truth, I Can't Remember, But I Think It Never Hurts to Rerun a Classic

I'd like to do it closer to Halloween, though.

[Zenlitened]

66. Since the November panic big corporations have increased shareholders of record by 10% to 50%.

"...Since the November panic big corporations have increased shareholders of record by 10% to 50%.

"IBM sales seen up this year, doing better than other office equipment makers. Big fluctuations in stock price due to lack of sponsorship.

Bank earnings generally lower than last year, but better than expected. Capital positions seen generally good. New source of increased revenue is loans on securities..."

News From 1930

[DemReadingDU]

67. Toxic Assets Explained With Thanksgiving Gravy (VIDEO)

7/15/09 This was on Huffingtonpost.com
Via Consumerist comes this lovely video from American Public Media's Marketplace, in which senior editor Paddy Hirsch explained exactly what's been going on with those toxic assets that we've heard so much about.

Hirsch does a really lovely job explaining the matter, with an analogy to Thanksgiving gravy. See, about a year ago, the securities market looked like delicious gravy. But guess what happened? Precipitation or flocculation or whatever the term is for when the layer of fat settles out of solution at the top of the gravy. The fat is the "rubbish" that no one wants to buy. The upshot: reports of rosy bank balance sheets don't take into account the glistening, thick slab of nast that's making its way to the bottom of the gravy tureen as the good stuff is poured out.

Anyway, Hirsch goes on to discuss the actions that banks can possibly take to dispose of their toxic assets and the dangers that the toxic assets still pose, but I won't spoil the ending by disclosing what happens to Dumbledore or whatever. The salient point is that this is delightful, and hopefully Hirsch will do another one comparing credit-default swaps to haggis.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/15/toxic-assets-explained-wi_n_233392.html

Direct link to video, appx 7 minutes
Banks are paying back TARP money and claiming they’re the picture of health. So what happened to all those toxic assets that were clogging their arteries a few months back? Senior Editor Paddy Hirsch explains.
http://vimeo.com/5545959

[Demeter]

71. The HUffPost Author Knows Nothing About Gravy

When your gravy separates, the grease rises and gets poured off first, unless you have one of those clever pour from the bottom cups to separate off the grease.

Demeter--domestic goddess and former restaurateur. (Although you'd never know it by looking at my house or the menu any more....)

[DemReadingDU]

73. Hirsch did mention a gravy separator

That's what he was trying to draw, and mentioned it can be bought at Williams Sonoma, appx $15

but it's actually $24 for 2-cup, and $28 for the 4-cup
http://www.williams-sonoma.com/products/cw202/index.cfm?clg=79

edit: watch the video, it's really good

[InkAddict]

77. I've had one of those gadgets for years, probably was only

$9.99 - LOL - It was a gift, even better.

What they've actually been doing is using the giant centrifuge of Geitner/Paulson/Greenspan/Cramer's et al mouths spin the floating crud until it gets flung all around the universe so that it even dirties up the cleanest walls and countertops.

It's time to get out the EasyOff and rubber gloves of regulation and prevent anyone from not only cooking any more greasy turkey but also to change the menu to reflect some pate de foi gras made out of the above-named confined livers with seasoned fava beans and a nice Chianti.

[mullard12ax7]

68. Wow, you mean Goldman and others have been manipulating the markets?

What a shocker! No one could have predicted it! What groundbreaking news! Finally, now we can keep ignoring all the corruption by inventing some other misdirection like "let's focus on health care". I mean seriously, who needs laws and regulations when propaganda and theft have been so successful for just a handful of people who are clearly deserving of all the money in the world?

[spotbird]

72. Abrams on MSNBC: Could GS be manipulating the market?

Coming up!

[DemReadingDU]

74. Abrams? Wasn't it Schuster with Matt Taibbi

7/16/09 Matt Taibbi: The real price of Goldman’s giganto-profits
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/07/16/on-goldmans-giganto-profits/


Edit: Taibbi is supposed to be on Rachel Maddow, MSNBC, during the 9-10pm hour.