Major Cities' Plummeting Crime Rates Mystifying

[RamboLiberal]

Source: Washington Post

Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected.

The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades. Boston, San Francisco, Minneapolis and other cities are also seeing notable reductions in homicides.

"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.

-----

Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/19/AR2009071902154.html?hpid=topnews

[MADem]

1. No one can afford bullets or gas for the getaway car?

Interesting dynamic, though. K/R.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Erh......could it be Hope?

Just wonderin'.....

[pscot]

4. Apathy

Crime is just too much hassle. Plus you actually have to go out. Easier to lay around and watch TV and play video games.

[pnorman]

18. Are you trying to pin the rap on Obama?

Just asking.

pnorman

[FrenchieCat]

22. Well, they say they don't know why crime went down......

it reads....

Violent crime has plummeted in the Washington area and in major cities across the country, a trend criminologists describe as baffling and unexpected.

The District, New York and Los Angeles are on track for fewer killings this year than in any other year in at least four decades.

------------
the economy has been sucking since at least September, and the only thing that happened since the beginning of the year is a new administration.

So anything is possible....isn't it? :shrug:

[never cry wolf]

39. It would not surprise me in the least

Hope, coupled with new positive role models inner city youths can identify with.

[lapfog_1]

3. One obvious overlooked factor

the "baby boom" generation is all 50+ now. Usually past the "armed robbery" phase of life.

[RamboLiberal]

6. I think most baby boomers are long past cause of crime

I'd bet it's more related to falling teenage birth rates which hit their peak in 1991. There's probably more factors as well.

[Skittles]

12. the youngest Boomers turn 45 this year

[imdjh]

5. During the Great Depression violent crime was virtually nil in DC.

[wroberts189]

7. "common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false" wtf? ..more

Its a common belief because its true and it is OBVIOUS ...which is the whole point of the article... "baffling and unexpected" because we should be seeing a rise.


more from article:

"Experts did not see this coming at all," said Andrew Karmen, a criminologist and professor of sociology at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.

In the District and Prince George's County, homicides are down about 17 percent this year.

Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false.

Whatever the cause, police across the region are taking credit for the drop.
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"Everybody wants to beat us up when it goes up, so we'll take credit for it when it goes down," D.C. Police Chief Cathy L. Lanier said.

She said police are able to target specific locations or types of crime and policing is so high-tech that investigators are analyzing crime minute-by-minute and have greater ability to attack crime before it happens.

In Prince George's, for example, the department's top commanders get mobile phone updates on crimes and 911 calls every 15 minutes.

In New York, when someone is killed, police send a mobile data center to a neighborhood, allowing police on the scene to listen to 911 calls and immediately search databases that list the names of everyone in a certain building who is on parole.

In the District, the department creates a weekly "Go-Go report," which details where and when home-grown bands are playing, because go-go concerts often bring together rival gangs, causing violence, Lanier said. There is also a weekly gang report that tells officers which gangs or crews are feuding that week.

Armed with that information, police can better predict where crimes might happen and take measures to prevent them.

[sutz12]

8. Nobody has anything worth stealing any more?

Or maybe the pawnshops are all full.

:shrug:

[FrenchieCat]

23. Crimes of murder is not solely based on theft.....

[Iggo]

30. The why arent they robbing pawn shops?

;-)

[Dappleganger]

9. Christmas is coming...

look for Santa's helpers to get busier then.

[FarCenter]

10. AIDS -- lots of dead or incapacitated junkies and prison inmates

[DJ13]

11. I swear the gov has a black ops program to sedate the population

Could be the food, could be the water, but theres a noticeable apathy thats more pronounced as our country's economy gets worse.

People should be out in the streets en mass with unemployment so high while the bankers continue getting fat off their bonuses, but no, they sit at home like sheep watching non stop celebrity death news on TV.

Somethings not right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. You know this is a premise for great fiction...

It's not in the water though, I'd argue. Unintended consequence of TV... plenty of damn studies on the effects of the TEEVEE on RAM and brain waves.

[Zenlitened]

19. Pthalates

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phthalate

:tinfoilhat:

[DJ13]

29. Thanks, thats interesting!

[JesterCS]

40. See the movie Equillibrium

good movie. Christian Bale stars =D

[Downwinder]

13. Sent the bad actors to Iraq and Afghanistan?

[IDemo]

15. Only so many hours in a day

Survey: Retail theft skyrockets

[Odin2005]

16. Crime rates were low in the 30s, as the article points out.

Cyclical socio-cultural patterns are obviously in play here.

[populistdriven]

17. BBBBBut we have a Black President, Crime will skyrocket, Just u wait.

By Sam Youngman and Aaron Blake
Posted: 03/13/07 07:46 PM
Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) votes on crime issues during his tenure in the Illinois state Senate could prove harmful to his effort to win the White House. His opponents and critics are mining his short voting record for campaign fodder.

A review by The Hill found a number of votes by Obama on bills dealing with drug, gang and gun-control issues that could be used by opponents seeking to derail his presidential candidacy.

Observers have suggested Obama could be vulnerable to accusations that he is soft on crime.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/obamas-crime-votes-are-fodder-for-rivals-2007-03-13.html

[Betty]

20. there's no one to rob

now that there's so much unemployment.

[Festivito]

34. Disparity evokes crime. This downfall we all were hit.

There's no joy in stealing from somebody as hurt as you are.

There are still those who will steal from anybody. They're at the top of the Republican party.

[PSPS]

21. "the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false."

Criminologists have different theories about why crime is down so much, although many agree that the common belief that crime is connected to the economy is false.

The headline says "violent crime" which is a category that isn't usually affected very much by economic conditions. Property crimes like burglary and theft are up.

Here's a news release from my big city's police department:

SNAPSHOT ANALYSIS: Major Crimes are up through the first five months of 2009 by 8% overall, when compared to the same time period in 2008. Increases have occurred in all crime categories except homicide, rape and vehicle theft. The increases in robbery, burglary and larceny continue a trend seen in the latter half of 2008. The increase in aggravated assaults reverses a downward trend from the last two years.

[DCKit]

24. It's the subliminal messages on the HDTV....

coupled with the surveillance cameras in the converter boxes, the hormones and additives in our food, genetically modified crops and prescription drugs.

Just had to say it.

[sharesunited]

25. Hocked the iron?

[krispos42]

26. Finally, the proliferation of "CSIs" and "Law & Orders" are having an effect

Doink! Doink!

:woohoo:

[tritsofme]

27. Every day I hear more about the increased rates of shootings in Chicago

Doesn't seem to be holding true here.

[AngryAmish]

37. Data point - observation bias (you heard does not make it true)

Murder is actually down in Chicago this year.

I am a long-time believer in demographics driving crime - more young uneducated young males you have the more crime you have. Crime spiked with the baby boomers, now less so.

I may have to revise my assumptions but I need more data.

The fact that we may have aborted much of our criminal class is also an interesting conjecture, more data needed tho.

[Lagomorph]

28. Who is there left to rob? nt

[nolabels]

31. I think the government has farmed all those criminal jobs out too...

Have you checked what it has those hired guns and the conscripts uniform are doing in Iraq and Afghanistan :shrug:

[SoCalDem]

32. Depression? Ennui?

Even criminals have to SELL the stuff they steal or push.

and with regards to burglary, perhaps the OWNERS of the property are beating the crooks to the punch, and selling their "toys".. Maybe all those empty McMansions and the few lived in ones, stripped of the goodies", are not that much of a lure these days:)

[Dogmudgeon]

33. Less exposure to Lead, too

--d!

[AngryAmish]

38. Very true!

[Wednesdays]

35. K&R

:kick:

[MindPilot]

36. clearly the result of liberalized concealed carry laws

and yes, I am being sarcastic.

[Bankhead_ATL]

41. damn too poor to rob or kill ....WOW. you have to put a robbery on lay away

[ohio2007]

42. the police that keep these records laid off ? ("Experts did not see this coming at all," )

And in some major cities they just stopped counting

[sofa king]

43. My money is on the weather... and abortion.

The DC area in particular has experienced an uncharacteristically benign summer. So has New York, which enjoyed 46 consecutive days below 85 deg F.

http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2009/07/new-york-breaks-summer-cool-streak.html

Prisons and jails are well aware of the relationship between ambient temperature and violence, which is why you froze your ass off the last time you spent the night in jail, no matter what time of year it was or where.

[BadGimp]

44. It's the accesibility of online porn!

it's quite thereputic actually :)

I'm only half joking btw

[Telly Savalas]

45. Maybe the assholes all moved from those place to Kansas City.

The crime rates sure aren't going down here.