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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:34 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 20
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 20, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 17, 2009



Dow... 8,743.94 +32.12 (+0.37%)

Nasdaq... 1,886.61 +1.58 (+0.08%)

S&P 500... 940.38 -0.36 (-0.04%)

Gold future... 937.50 +2.10 (+0.22%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.64 +0.08 (+2.19%)

30-Year Bond 4.54 +0.09 (+2.02%)








U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES





Market Conditions During Trading Hours







GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver






Handy Links - Market Data and News:

Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance

    Google Finance    LayoffDaily


Handy Links - Economic Blogs:

The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns

    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666


Handy Links - Government Issues:

LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

















This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:36 AM
Response to Original message
1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood
New Bull Market?

I received a phone call yesterday in which the caller heavily implied that THE bear market bottom had been made. For those who feel this may be the case, I want to offer you a stand back and “look at the forest” point of view on this.

Obviously, the definitions of Bull and Bear markets differ from person to person. My definition is based on the works of the great Dow theorists, Charles H. Dow, William Peter Hamilton and Robert Rhea. As a result of my study of Dow theory combined with my study of cycles, which are not a part of Dow theory, I have drawn some very obvious conclusions about the nature of Bull and Bear markets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Who knew? Tim Wood has a telephone.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:13 AM
Response to Reply #1
19. Interesting description of four year cycles, which never seem to take four years,
or make a repeating cycle pattern. Did I ever mention I own the axe George Washington used to chop down the cherry tree? It just has a different head and a different handle. This also reminds me of my favorite crackpot Atlantis theory, that Atlantis was actually in Bolivia. To explain why it differed from Plato's description (not an island, no volcano, didn't sink into the sea), the crackpot said, "Plato just got all the details wrong."
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:15 AM
Response to Reply #19
30. Bolivia?
Can't see it myself.
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mullard12ax7 Donating Member (500 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #1
54. Widdle Timmy (Uncle Fester) Wood weally wikes his charts
The doofus is yammering on about what a bull or bear market is. Here's a little tippo for ya Uncle Fester Wood, in a bull market prices go up, in a bear market prices go down.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:38 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Report
10:00 Leading Indicators Jun
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 1.2%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #2
31. I'll Bet You Leading Indicators Are DOWN
by 5%.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #31
37. We'll Find out for sure next month, of course!
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
36. U.S. June leading economic indicators up 0.7%
Leading index hints at slow recovery by fall
10:06am Today

U.S. June leading economic indicators up 0.7%
10:00am Today
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:38 AM
Response to Original message
3. Good morning Ozy
First recommendation this morning.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:42 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Good morning, rfranklin.
:donut: :donut: :donut:

I hope all is well in your world.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:41 AM
Response to Original message
4. Oil rises above $64 on strong Q2 corporate results
SINGAPORE – Oil prices broke above $64 a barrel Monday in Asia as strong second quarter company results helped boost investor optimism.

Benchmark crude for August delivery was up 83 cents to $64.39 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract jumped $1.54 to settle at $63.56.

Better than expected earnings last week from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Intel Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. eased some investor doubts about the chances of a U.S. economic recovery this year. Traders will be watching results this week from Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. for further clues about economic growth.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 1.31 cents to $1.78 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.34 cents to $1.65. Natural gas for August delivery jumped 2.3 cents to $3.69 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices



The unsophisticated reasoning concerning oil prices is just staggering.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:46 AM
Response to Original message
6. CIT Is Said to Obtain Urgent Loan to Prevent Bankruptcy
Directors of the CIT Group, one of the nation’s leading lenders to small and midsize businesses, approved a deal Sunday evening with some of the bank’s major bondholders to help it avert a bankruptcy filing through a $3 billion emergency loan, according to people briefed on the matter.

The deal will buy CIT some time to restructure its business model and reduce its voluminous debt load, after the company failed to win crucial concessions from Washington regulators. The company had planned to file for bankruptcy protection as soon as Monday afternoon if it could not attract enough capital from private investors, including big bondholders and its banks.

Under the terms of the deal, CIT would receive $3 billion from some of its main bondholders, though at an initial rate of about 10.5 percent. The money, arranged by Barclays Capital, is meant to give the company several weeks to set up an exchange of bondholders’ debt for equity, alleviating some of the pressure from billions of dollars in obligations.

.....

Jeffrey M. Peek, CIT’s chief executive and the architect of the lender’s ill-timed aggressive push into subprime mortgages and student loans, was active in the financing talks, according to people briefed on the matter. Mr. Peek, a longtime banker who lost a race to become Merrill Lynch’s chief executive, called upon many of his acquaintances on Wall Street to provide some form of aid.

.....

A failure of CIT could have sent ripple effects through the nation’s small and midsize businesses. While most of its portfolio consisted of term loans, the company dominated the market for factoring, a type of lending common within the manufacturing and retail sectors.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/20/business/20bank.html
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #6
17. Check out the newest 7/16/09 Barclay Board change
http://group.barclays.com/Investor-Relations/News

Reuben Jeffery III will join the Boards of Barclays PLC and Barclays Bank PLC, as
a non-executive Director, with immediate effect. Reuben Jeffery is a Senior
Adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, D.C.
and previously served in the US government as Under Secretary of State for
Economic, Energy and Agricultural Affairs. Prior to joining the Department of
State, Mr Jeffery was the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission and before that held a number of positions in US government
service. Mr Jeffery spent eighteen years at Goldman, Sachs & Co., where he was
managing partner of Goldman Sachs in Paris (1997-2001) and of the firm’s
European Financial Institutions Group in London (1992-1997).


Otherwise: WOW - 10.5% on $3B for a couple weeks. Is this the equivalent of bankers' PayDay lending? Stalling the inevitable
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #17
32. Another Goldman Borg, Sigh
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 10:18 AM by Demeter
We got to poison the brand, so a Goldborg can't get a job as street sweeper.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:49 AM
Response to Original message
7. White House putting off release of budget update
WASHINGTON – The White House is being forced to acknowledge the wide gap between its once-upbeat predictions about the economy and today's bleak landscape.

The administration's annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama's budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress.

The release of the update — usually scheduled for mid-July — has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess.

.....

The administration earlier this year predicted that unemployment would peak at about 9 percent without a big stimulus package and 8 percent with one. Congress did pass a $787 billion two-year stimulus measure, yet unemployment soared to 9.5 percent in June and appears headed for double digits.

Obama's current forecast anticipates 3.2 percent growth next year, then 4 percent or higher growth from 2011 to 2013. Private forecasts are less optimistic, especially for next year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090720/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_midsummer_s_budget_nightmare
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:13 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. a couple more billion to goldman execs would solve the problem, no?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:24 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. Sadly, and without doubt, someone in the White House has offered this idea
as a possible solution. If this particular idea has not been brought up then we can be fairly certain that discussions over future solutions have involved how to make Goldman Sachs a beneficiary of policy decisions.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:22 AM
Response to Reply #7
33. Song for the Budget
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yD-ffhvefsw


There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza,
There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, a hole.
Then fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then fix it, dear Henry, dear Henry, then fix it.

With what shall I fix it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
With what shall I fix it, dear Liza, with what?
With some straw, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With some straw, dear Henry, dear Henry, some straw.

The straw is too long, dear Liza, dear Liza,
The straw is too long, dear Liza, too long,
Then cut it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then cut it, dear Henry, dear Henry, cut it.

With what shall I cut it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
With what shall I cut it, dear Liza, with what?
With an axe, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With an axe, dear Henry, dear Henry, an axe.

The axe is too dull, dear Liza, dear Liza,
The axe is too dull, dear Liza, too dull.
Then sharpen it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then sharpen it, dear Henry, dear Henry, sharpen it.

With what shall I sharpen it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
With what shall I sharpen it, dear Liza, with what?
With a stone, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
With a stone, dear Henry, dear Henry, a stone.

The stone is too dry, dear Liza, dear Liza,
The stone is too dry, dear Liza, too dry.
Then wet it, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
Then wet it, dear Henry, dear Henry, then wet it.

With what shall I wet it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
With what shall I wet it, dear Liza, with what?
try water, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
try water, dear Henry, dear Henry, try water.

From where shall I get it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
From where shall I get it, dear Liza, from where?
From the well, dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
From the well, dear Henry, dear Henry, the well.

In what shall I fetch it, dear Liza, dear Liza?
In what shall I fetch it, dear Liza, in what?
In a bucket dear Henry, dear Henry, dear Henry,
In a bucket dear Henry, dear Henry, in a bucket.

There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza,
There's a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, a hole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_Hole_in_My_Bucket
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #33
50. Spearhead. Michael Franti. Hole in the Bucket.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z287-pMl3_M

Lyrics to Hole In Da Bucket :
(Money Money Money Money Nothin But Money)

I work 9 to 5 but it starts in the P.M.
and I love the sunrise so I step out in the A.M.
the street is black and shiny from the early
nightly rainin'
the glory of the light it brings evaporation

morning's fresh oxygen cleanest
I take a deep hit help my mind stay the greenest
I'm already wake so I'm not drinkin' coffee
don't wanna cigarrette, 'cause it's a form of slavery

walk into the store 'cause I need a few items
the sun heats the blood like a hit of vitamins
needa buy some food and some 'poo for my dreads
can't remember why but I need a spool of thread...

Man with dirty dreads, steps around the comer
he asks me for a dime, a nickel or a quarter
I don't have any change so I'm steppin' along
and as I'm walkin' past he sings to me a song...

(chorus)
There's a whole in the bucket dear liza, dear
liza...(repeat)

The day is pickin' up cause I'm hummin' his song
the buses and the people all keep movin' along
to the shopkeeper I say "was'sup?"
and I'm thinkin' about the man who's holdin' up the cup

I pay for all the stuff and get a pocketful of change
should I give it to the man's the question in my brain
What's gonna happen if I give the man a dime?
I don't wanna pay for anotha brotha's wine

What's gonna happen if I give the man a quarter?
will he find a dealer and try to place an order?
what's gonna happen if I give the man a nickel
will he buy some food or some pork that's been pickled?

I'm not responsible for the man's depression
how can I find compassion in the midst of recession?
How come all these questions keep fuckin' with my head
and I still can't rememba why I need a spool of thread.

(chorus)

He's starin' in my eyes just as I'm walkin' past
I'm tryin to avoid him cause I know he's gonna ask
me about the coinage that is in my pocket
But I don't know if I should put it in his bucket

walk right past him to think about it more
back at the crib I'm openin' up the door
a pocketful of change it don't mean alot to me
my cup is half full but his is empty

I put back on my cap and I start headin' back
I reach into my pocket and I have a heart attack
well as I'm diggin' deep I scream "oh no!"
there's nothin' in the pocket but a great big hole

While I was busy thinkin' if he would buy smack
the jingle in my pocket it slipped through the cracks
no one has the change and it's fuckin' up my head
But now I know the reason why I had to buy the thread...

(chorus)

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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #7
44. This economy is still....
shedding jobs faster than a stripped sheds her clothes. We will not even begin to think of a recovery until people start getting jobs.

This is a Depression folks, and it isn't your Grandfather's Depression folks-this will be one for the history books. What we are seeing is a major paradigm shift in the current business models, which will effect finance, employment, social order, and even the way we look at money. Over all of this is the environment and sustainability. This will eventually determine species survival.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #44
47. That's what I am reading too

I hear people talk about when the recovery happens this year or next. I say that the economy can't recover any time soon because we are losing more jobs every month than are being created, and lots of our jobs were sent overseas...auto jobs, clothing, shoes, small appliances, etc.etc.

But most people still haven't been directly affected, so they tend to roll their eyes. It's as if their eyes are saying...this is America, the economy always recovers, the stock market always recovers, lights always come on, stores always have food, there's always gas for the cars, there are always credit cards.

What's coming could get ugly, but people sharing and helping each other can get us through the depression. We may lose jobs, but we may gain a broader acceptance of family and neighbors working together and enjoying simple things again.




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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:55 AM
Response to Original message
8. Swiss Banks Avoid US In Wake Of Spat With IRS
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--UBS AG's (UBS) high-profile spat with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service has made some of Switzerland's other banks wary of looking after U.S.-based clients, prompting some to stop taking money from Americans altogether and menacing the country's image as a private banking center.

UBS is currently locked in talks with the IRS which wants access to 52,000 client accounts in a moved aimed at rooting out possible tax fraud, possibly breaching Switzerland's own banking secrecy laws.

Analysts expect UBS to pay a hefty settlement to resolve the matter before it goes to court, thereby protecting the identities of its clients.

.....

The U.S. assertiveness in pursuing alleged tax cheats and what some experts predict will be a similar push from the European Union have sent Swiss banks hidebound from any sort of U.S. business, even in innocuous products such as children's savings accounts.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090720-702945.html
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:12 AM
Response to Original message
9. Another Cartoon--Says How I feel
http://www.cartoonbank.com/product_details.asp?sitetype=1&sid=131037&did=4&utm_campaign=CartoonOfTheDay&utm_medium=RSS-Feed&utm_source=RSS-Feed

This weekend's WE was brutal, folks. The widespread betrayal of the nation is now coming out of the fog off the battlefield.

We have two forces for evil: the Family and Goldman Sachs. I don't see any linkage between the two, for which I suppose we should be grateful.

Perhaps the best hope it to set them at each other's throats.
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bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 08:18 AM
Response to Reply #9
23. Was indeed brutal...but
for my money, on the mark. Or, since I personally don't have much money (being part of the real economy, not affiliated with G-S), perhaps better just to say "on the money."

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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Links between the 2: how long they both have been working against our interests
and how widespread their reach is.
both have invaded the government, are setting domestic and international policy, and are heavily involved in
in other countries.
With "friends" like this.....etc.

G'mornng, Demeter.:hi:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. Good Morning ( a fervent wish)
The Smartest Guys in the Room--how many pompous, greedy psychopaths in this country counted themselves as such? I know I married one--didn't start out that way, but he got the idea from America, not his native land, and adapted.

This is a cultural problem. It needs a cultural solution. These Stupidest Guys in the World are not going to be struck by lightning (and even if they were, it wouldn't help) and recant and repent and change their evil ways.

The open question is: which way does Obama lean: towards the Dumbest Guys in the Country, or towards the Workers?

I'm holding in reserve the hope that his naivety led him into bad company, and he will see the light and turn it around. I'm hoping that a combination of being hammered by facts and inundated by the screams of the populace, Obama will smarten up and start governing. I know some think he's totally corrupted already, or that the situation is so perilous it wouldn't matter if he did.

That's REAL Audacity of Hope, I know. Obama's going to live up to those words or eat them.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #29
40. I'm sure the administration knows they need to keep the economy

from imploding. It's a delicate balancing act. Yet, deep down, they are not dumb, and must know anything could upset the apple cart such as another major hurricane. Except when the financial bubble bursts, it will be a tsunami over the whole country, probably the whole world.

Surely, they have plans for when this happens, such as nation-wide distribution of food, National Guard to keep civil peace, maintaining electricity and water.

:shrug:

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #40
46. Heckofa Job Time?
I have NO confidence of any such thing. I've seen the government broken, and I haven't seen it put back together. At best, anyone not eliminated by BushCo BFEE and the Fundie college grad corps is just beginning to pull their heads out from under the desks.

And as for the economy, we've been boarded and captured by pirates. Until the Gold-Borg are sent packing and some REAL American public servants installed with real regulatory power and the will to use it, I have no hope.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #46
48. I haven't seen or heard anything yet either

Maybe they are keeping Plan B to be a secret, to be unveiled only when the big financial bubble pops!

P.S. But Geithner did say there was no Plan B in one of those hearings, that Plan A is going to work. Well, if what we are seeing now as Plan A, it is not working.

We are so screwed
:(
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #46
60. No confidence here, either.
I see a national disaster now as a trigger to chaos and anarchy, perhaps not unlike the collapse of the old Soviet Union.

Yes, I do.



Tansy Gold
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #40
62. Along those lines, look what I found the other day
http://www.upp.com/blue-cross-blue-shield-jobs.html

This IT consultancy isn't merely about healthcare claims - and at one point, back in the 80s their battle cry was "one plan per state"; they're big time into warehousing/logistics systems/software for some pretty interesting stuff.

Things that make you go hmmmm...
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #29
64. Obama hits out at Wall Street banks

Obama hits out at Wall Street banks
Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:57pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Monday that Wall Street banks had failed to show remorse for the "wild risks" that triggered a financial meltdown and helped to push the United States into recession.

Obama unveiled a sweeping regulatory overhaul in June aimed at improving government oversight of banks and markets to avert a repeat of the financial crisis.

"The problem that I've seen, at least, is you don't get a sense that folks on Wall Street feel any remorse for taking all these risks," Obama said in an interview with PBS television.

"You don't get a sense that there's been a change of culture and behavior as a consequence of what has happened. And that's why the financial regulatory reform proposals that we put forward are so important," he said.

Obama said the planned regulatory reforms would prevent Wall Street firms from taking the "wild risks" they had taken before the financial crisis. Shareholders should also have the right to weigh in on huge bonuses paid to executives, he said.

Wall Street paid more than $18 billion of bonuses in 2008, a year in which it needed trillions of dollars of taxpayer support.

Asked if he was concerned about the jump in profits reported by banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co, Obama said his administration had less leverage over them now that they had repaid government bailout money.

He said the measures put in his place by his government to stabilize the economy were working, despite unemployment projected to rise above 10 percent within months.

"I think we've put out the fire. The analogy I use sometimes is, we had this beautiful house. And there was a fire. We came in and we had to hose it down.

"The fire is now out, but what we've discovered is, we need some new tuckpointing, the roof's leaking, the boiler's out, oh, and by the way, we're way behind on our mortgage," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56J5K220090720
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
11. 7 Reasons Why Housing Isn’t Bottoming Yet
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 06:20 AM by ozymandius
On Saturday, I posted this chart and wondered why “Some people were calling for a housing bottom.” That generated a ton of emails asking about for further clarification.

The people I referred to were the usual happy talk TV suspects (i.e., Cramer) who have been perpetually wrong about Housing for nigh on 3 years. I not only disagree with them, but don’t respect their opinion — essentially headline reading gut instinct big-money-losers. No thanks.

Then there were the slew of MSM who insist each month on reporting that 3% (+/- 11%) is a positive integer. We disposed of that silliness on Friday.

But the crux of the email was over this post. There are a handful of people whom I disagree with, but nonetheless have a great deal of respect for their methodology and process. Over the past year, these have included Doug Kass and Lakshman Achuthan and Bill of Calculated Risk. We may reach different conclusions about a given issue, or disagree on timing, but these are the folks whose opinions force me to sharpen my own.

.....

There are a plethora of reasons why I believe we are nowhere near a bottom in Housing prices or activity. Here are a few:
• Prices: By just about every measure, Home prices on a national basis remain elevated. They are now far off their highs, but are still remain about ~15% above their historic metrics. I expect prices will continue lower for the next 2-4 quarters, if not longer, and won’t see widespread Real increases for many years after that; Indeed, I don’t expect to see nominal increases for anytime soon;

• Mean Reversion: As prices revert back towards historical means, there is the very high probability that they will careen past the median. This is the pattern we see after extended periods of mispricing. Nearly all overpriced asset classes revert not merely to their historic trend line, but typically collapse far below them. I have no reason to believe Housing will be any different;

• Employment & Wages: The rate of Unemployment is very likely to continue to rise for the next 4-8 quarters, if not longer. This removes an increasing number of people from the total pool of potential home buyers. There is another issue — Wages, and they have been flat for the past decade (negative in Real terms), crimping the potential for families to trade up to larger houses — a big source of Real Estate activity. Plus, more unemployment means more . . .
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/why-housing-isnt-yet-bottoming/



Ritholtz goes on to illuminate additional support to his assertion.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:42 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. Due to the nature of this
:donut:
Depression/recession, there can be no such thing as a jobless recovery. We're just starting to see the effects on State and Local Governments, and there are those albatrosses out there in the form of Opt-arms, Alt-A's, credit card debt, and CRE. These are going to continue to pour fat onto the inferno.

K & R
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #11
28. Anecdotal evidence
Houses in mildly upscale Gold Canyon, AZ, are selling in 2009 for about what and sometimes less than they sold for new 5 to 8 years ago.

A friend's son recently bought one out of foreclosure for $125K. Originally sold new in 2002 for $140K. One owner, second home, lived in 5 mos/year, vacant since April 2007.

As the jobless recession/depression/desperation deepens, look for prices to drop further. If you're in the market to buy, hold onto your cash.



Tansy Gold, just reporting what she sees
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #28
49. Hubby and I look....
but we are holding on to our cash. I mean, if we can resist the urge for a new car with all this stimulus around-we can just say no to an overpriced house.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:33 AM
Response to Original message
13. Quelle Surprise! The Fed is Reporting Losses on Its Bear Stearns and AIG SPVs
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 06:38 AM by ozymandius
Readers may recall that during the heat of bailout battle, the Federal Reserve got into the fancy finance business, relying on the sort of deal structuring sometimes used to try to turn toxic odd pork scraps into barely-digestible sausage, the procedure used for pigs so dead that merely putting lipstick on them just won't do.

The items in question are Maiden Lane, the vehicle used to backstop JP Morgan's purchase Bear Stearns, and two sons of Maiden Lane created for dodgy AIG exposures. The bank was permitted to move some particularly fragrant collateral from Bear over to the Fed for a loan of $30 billion. The arrangement got reworked on the fly, and in the end, the Fed loan was reduced to roughly $29 billion as JP Morgan agreed to assume $1.15 billion of risk. The assets were placed in a holding company to be managed by BlackRock.

Maiden Lane II and III were spawned in the course of the AIG rescue. I've seen much less commentary on those deals, perhaps because commentators find the whole AIG mess so complicated and upsetting it's hard to know where best to direct one's ire.

This was so unseemly that even Paul Volcker, who has made a point of not commenting on Fed actions, felt compelled to voice disapproval of the Bear-related subsidy to JP Morgan. Willem Buiter, who has repeatedly pointed out that the three card monte operation being run by the Fed and Treasury are anti-democratic and possibly illegal, tells us that even by Fed's own, no doubt rosy, calculations. all three SPVs are under water.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/quelle-surprise-fed-is-reporting-losses.html



This is a most excellent post. Somehow, in a gallows humor way, this is the toxic shit that Bernanke, Geithner and Summers desire to repackage as "misunderstood" assets and offer to pension funds as investment grade securities.
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:29 AM
Response to Reply #13
20. Watch the scrambling...How does this fit in?
Sorry, the links are huge pdf - Read more at http://group.barclays.com/Investor-Relations/News

Barclays announces acceptance of the BlackRock offer for BGI
and termination of the CVC transaction

The Board of Barclays PLC (“Barclays”) today announces that it has accepted
BlackRock’s offer to purchase the Barclays Global Investors business and has
resolved to recommend it to shareholders for approval at a general meeting to
be called for the purpose which will be held in early August 2009.
In connection with accepting the BlackRock offer, Blue Sparkle, L.P. (“Blue
Sparkle”), the CVC Capital Partners SICAV-FIS S.A. (“CVC”) vehicle formed in
relation to the CVC funds’ proposed purchase of the iShares business, has
agreed to terminate the transaction without exercising its right to propose an
alternative proposal to the BlackRock offer announced on 12 June 2009.
Barclays will pay Blue Sparkle fees of US$175 million (£106 million) under the
agreement with Blue Sparkle signed on 9 April 2009.

Also:

London, 12 June 2009
Barclays announces receipt of binding offer of $13.5 billion (£8.2 billion) by BlackRock for BGI
The Board of Directors of Barclays PLC (“Barclays”) today announces that it has received a binding offer from BlackRock, Inc. (“BlackRock”) for the purchase of the Barclays Global Investors business (“BGI”) for consideration of approximately US$13.5 billion (£8.2 billion) (the “BlackRock Offer”). As part of the consideration offered, Barclays would receive 37.784 million new BlackRock shares giving it an economic interest of approximately 19.9% of the enlarged BlackRock Group which would be renamed BlackRock Global Investors. The remainder of the consideration of US$6.6 billion (£4.0 billion) would be paid by BlackRock in cash.

The Barclays Board has determined that the BlackRock Offer constitutes a superior offer to the transaction agreed with Blue Sparkle, L.P., the CVC Capital Partners Group SICAV-FIS S.A. vehicle (“CVC”) formed in relation to its proposed purchase of the iShares business (“iShares”), as announced on 9 April 2009 (the “CVC Transaction”). Unless Barclays receives an offer from CVC by the end of Thursday 18 June 2009 (New York time) which it considers to match the BlackRock Offer, the Barclays Board will accept the BlackRock Offer and recommend it to Barclays shareholders for approval at a general meeting to be called for the purpose. Should CVC submit an offer that causes the BlackRock Offer no longer, in the opinion of the Barclays Board, to be considered superior to the CVC Transaction, Barclays will continue a transaction with CVC on those improved terms. Barclays is now no longer able to solicit other proposals or to continue negotiations with other interested parties other than to satisfy CVC's exercise of its right to match.

BlackRock Global Investors would be one of the leading global providers of investment management services with pro-forma assets under management of approximately US$2.8 trillion (£1.9 trillion) as at 31 December 2008 and extensive capabilities across investment strategies and products including fixed income, equity, cash, exchange traded funds (ETFs) and client solutions. Barclays would extend its ability to meet the sophisticated investment needs of its existing and future clients and customers by accessing the enhanced investment platform and capabilities of BlackRock Global Investors. Barclays would also gain access through BlackRock to new channels and customers for Barclays products and advisory services, offering new revenue opportunities.
The proposed transaction would offer exciting opportunities both for Barclays and for the new BGI/BlackRock combination and both parties expect the ongoing relationship to be highly productive. As part of the ongoing relationship between Barclays and
1 of....
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #13
25. Remember the Enron accounting gimmicks? Same thing.
Cannot believe there are so few economist types not commenting on that game when it was first indtroduced.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
14. Debt: 07/16/2009 11,598,417,943,168.15 (UP 18,989,229,215.62) (Up 16B$.)
(Debt goes up for today and the FICA side joins it.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,254,750,253,086.17 + 4,343,667,690,081.98
UP 16,136,405,834.08 + UP 2,852,823,381.54

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,883,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,794.25.
A family of three owes $113,382.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,365,434,055.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,413,499,442.85.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 122 reports in 177 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.04B$ per report, 0.07B$/day so far.
There were 197 reports in 289 days of FY2009 averaging 7.99B$ per report, 5.45B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,284 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 19.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/16/2009 11,598,417,943,168.15 BHO (UP 971,540,894,255.07 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,573,693,046,255.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/26/2009 +000,335,751,413.22 ------------********
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********

164,649,688,417.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,933,786,139,909.08 in last 301 days.
That's 1,934B$ in 301 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 190% of that highest year ever only in 301 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 301 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3973092&mesg_id=3973160
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
57. Debt: 07/17/2009 11,600,488,226,683.25 (UP 2,070,283,515.10) (Small rise.)
(Most of the rise belongs to the FICA side for today.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,254,812,680,474.55 + 4,345,675,546,208.70
UP 62,427,388.38 + UP 2,007,856,126.72

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,890,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,800.11.
A family of three owes $113,400.33. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,596,434,722.14.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,590,599,953.64.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 123 reports in 178 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.07B$ per report, 0.05B$/day so far.
There were 198 reports in 290 days of FY2009 averaging 7.96B$ per report, 5.43B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,283 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/17/2009 11,600,488,226,683.25 BHO (UP 973,611,177,770.17 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,575,763,329,770.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******

164,376,364,392.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,935,856,423,424.18 in last 302 days.
That's 1,936B$ in 302 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 190% of that highest year ever only in 302 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 302 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3976881&mesg_id=3976916
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:54 AM
Response to Original message
16. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.828 Change -0.559 (-0.72%)

US Dollar Restricted to Narrow Range - What Could Force a Breakout?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Restricted_to_Narrow_1247872297729.html

Impressive rallies in the S&P 500 left the US Dollar lower against all major currencies except the Japanese Yen, but a relative sense of unease across financial markets highlights risks of a major USD bounce. US and European equity indices finished the week anywhere from 6-8.5 percent above their previous close—good for a 2000-3000% annualized rate of return. Early-week moves came on impressive earnings results from Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs and relatively benign economic data. It is easy to claim, however, that recent developments are unlikely to sustain such an impressive rate of returns. A relatively empty week of economic event risk ostensibly limits volatility expectation in the days ahead, but traders should keep a close watch on several key earnings reports and effects on the S&P 500 and US Dollar.

The US currency remains in a wide and choppy range against the Euro and other key currencies, and it may take a fairly significant shift in financial market risk sentiment to break the dollar from its trading channel. Had we known a week ago that the S&P 500 would break to fresh 30-day highs, we may have claimed that the EUR/USD would similarly break to fresh medium-term peaks. Yet forex markets clearly had other things in mind—constraining the heavily-traded currency pair to its two-month wedge formation. Consolidation patterns typically lead to noteworthy breakouts, but a continued downtrend in volatility expectations gives little reason to believe such a break will come in the week ahead. Indeed, the DailyFX 1-week currency volatility currently stands near 12-month lows.

The obvious question remains: What could break the US Dollar from its medium-term trading range? In short, there is no real way to know. Our natural suspicion is that it will take a substantial deterioration or improvement in financial market risk appetite to break the EURUSD below 1.3700 or above 1.4300. The rolling correlation between the EURUSD and US S&P 500 continues to trade near record-highs—emphasizing the US Dollar’s sensitivity to the key risk barometer. Equity markets remain similarly linked to the trajectory in commodity markets; the S&P – Reuters CRB Commodities Index correlation likewise trades near all-time highs. Increasingly clear connections across ostensibly unrelated asset classes underline the risk that a tumble in one will lead to sympathetic moves in another.

It remains critical to monitor the trajectory of key financial market health indicators and their effects on the US Dollar. As we continue to argue, noteworthy deterioration in financial market risk sentiment will likely be the spark to force major US Dollar rallies. Absent the correction, the Euro/US Dollar currency pair may continue to trade in a progressively narrower range.



...more...


Euro to be Dollar's Foil as Risk Appetite, Growth Take Hold

Compared to some of its liquid counterparts, the euro saw relatively staid price action this past week. Fundamental traders can thank the market’s interest in earnings and burgeoning financial troubles which kept traders’ focus on those currencies with more blatant connections to risk appetite. However, the euro is certainly not immune to these underlying drivers; and we will likely see the euro crowd react to these influences more readily going forward. What’s more, with growth numbers starting to cross the wires and significant round of economic data scheduled for release in the second half of the week; there looks to be enough fuel for EURUSD to force a breakout from its 1.4200-1.3800 range relatively soon. The question we need to ask while evaluating the fundamental landscape is whether the break will be a bullish or bearish one.

While there is a significant round of event risk to work with over the coming week; the most likely catalyst for price action for the euro (or any currency for that matter) is risk appetite. Earnings have had a distinct and severe impact on both the US dollar and Japanese yen; but the significance of such trends for the euro seems to have been overlooked. This is not likely to be the case for long. The European earnings season picks up next week; and the corporate sector’s health will be a robust and current gauge of market and economic strength – a dynamic that will be vital to speculators who have to wait until mid-August before the government reports its first readings of 2Q GDP (well after the UK and US). Another potential catalyst for risk resides in the financial markets. Here too, earnings will play their part. In its most recent Financial Stability Review, the ECB forecasted regional banks would write down another $218 billion in bad debt through 2010; but the IMF sees the figure much higher at $750 billion. If growth doesn’t take hold and buffer these losses (as policy officials are likely hoping for), this losses could trigger a delayed, European crisis. Turning from company to country risk, the health of many Eastern European countries and their banking systems are still a point of contention. As the larger Euro Zone members take a more frugal policy stance, neighbor bailouts could suffer during a time of particular vulnerability.

From the EURUSD response to the swell in risk appetite over the past week, the influence of each fundamental driver can have a different intensity for different currencies. Aside from risk, the other essential theme in Forex going forward is growth. As market commentators and participants latch on to the very early signs of an economic recovery (which is more a deceleration in the pace of recession at this point), the sensitivity to forecasting which nation is pacing the revival will increase. This is especially true for the Euro Zone which has collective spurned international calls to inject further stimulus funds into its economy to prevent further troubles down the road. This is a gamble which could amplify a double dip recession or pay off by accelerating the return to growth while allowing the government to work down its deficits more quickly. The IMF has projected a comparatively weak rebound for the regional economy with a 4.8 percent contraction this year and 0.3 percent expansion in 2010. This past week, China reported the first increase in the pace of economic activity since the beginning of 2007. Next Friday, the UK will mark the first developed country to report – and the trade ties and proximity of these nations will not go unnoticed by euro traders. However, there will be plenty of fodder for those that want direct fundamental contact. Euro Zone industrial production and current account numbers gauge growth through factory activity and trade. Though, it will be the advanced PMI figures for July that really offers speculators something to work with.





...more...

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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:09 AM
Response to Original message
18. I caught a snippet of the news this morning.
I guess the Weather Channel decided to jazz up their morning show with some news, Al Rokor, and Stephanie Abrams in a hot, tight, pink dress. Anyway, the news said that the Fed reports that we probably won't see "full employment" again, for another 6 years. And by "full employment", they defined it as a 5% unemployment rate.

I seem to remember that in the past, anything above 4% was considered recessionary. Are they telling us that we're now in a permanent recession?
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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #18
41. It has been predicted for some time now we are following the Japanese model
of a long deflationary cycle. Yout remember theirs lasted 10 years.
On the other hand, Bernanke, great student of the Great Depression that he is, may mange to lead us
into hyperinflation yet.
But Deninnger and Keiser are saying long deflation, poor earnings, high unemployment for years, because of the "stated" debt that the banks are not addressing.
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:37 AM
Response to Original message
21. what comes after deflation?
Table of Inflation Rates by Month and Year (2005-2009)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009 0 0.2-0.4-0.7-1.3-1.4
2008 4.3 4 4 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 3.8
2007 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 2 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.1 2.8
2006 4 3.6 3.4 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.1 3.8 2.1 1.3 2 2.5 3.2
2005 3 3 3.1 3.5 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.7 4.3 3.5 3.4 3.4
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. If you are still alive...inspiration!
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #21
26. Desperation? n/t
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:45 AM
Response to Reply #21
27. Annihilation?
This could turn into a Moody Blues song.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #21
34. Link, Please?
I need this kind of data for the 50 year plan in the Condo Assoc.
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. good luck with that
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #21
35. Prosecution, Revolution and FRSP!
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #21
45. capitulation or revolution? n/t
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
39. American B School Management by Dilbert
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florida08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 11:14 AM
Response to Original message
42. n/t
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
43. Morning Marketeers...
:donut: and lurkers. It has been, as Dickens once said, the best of times and the worst. As you know, Walter Cronkite passed away. I always thought of him as the one person I most wanted to break to me any bad news-because more times than not-he had to. His imprint is still here. Down the road from the school I work at, literally, is where he went to middle school. You don't have to dig too hard to find someone in the neighbourhood that knew him or of him. The main campus of the Junior College that I went to was his high school and they have a display with some of his handy work and he showed up to class reunions on a regular basis. He would come not because he was famous-but because he was a regular guy interested to know how his friend were doing. He had a special place in his heart for Houston, both as a place he grew up in but also as it was home to NASA. He was always available to young journalism student and new local reporters (like Dan Rather). I'd be safe in saying his spirit will be around here for a while. And he had a very special place in our hearts.

And speaking of spirits that still walk with us, I took my niece down to Galveston and got to review the recovery. It is going most slowly. The Shriners, God bless them, are not abandoning the Burns unit. It will cost a pretty penny but they are stying-so buy those circus tickets and support those guys. The Galveston Unit was a first class treatment and burn research center. They did much valuable research in growing and grafting skin. UTMB Schools of Medicine and Nursing are still hanging in and more businesses are coming back-like Murdock's bath house and the Poop Deck.

Now the bad news....The Strand took a hard hit. Most of the small shops and art galleries on the first level are gone and have not come back yet. They supported the trolley system and that is non existent at the moment. The whole island has a desolate feel to it because the gulf surge and the salt water that came with it destroyed almost all the islands beautiful oaks. The palms held up well but you mainly see bare branched trees with a dreaded orange dot on them. Driving the island is like walking through a house after the kids have left home. You hear echoes and you know something is missing, but it takes you a while to put your finger on it. You have to keep focused on the good to make it through. The hardest is the little things-like missing the Balinese, and the Flagship Hotel. So I will focus on the good....

There is more open beach space now. Pack a cooler because supplies can be spotty. The islander have always been friendly but now they really are happy that you came even though they are not at their best yet. There are some out of towner's but Houstonians consider it our beach and we still do. The beach is very clean and I see more umbrella stands now.

The most amazing thing I saw (and never have in my 40+ years of going to the beach), there were an amazing number of shrimping boats close off shore. They were so close I feared they would hit the sandbars. And with them came the pelicans. I never saw so many pelicans in all my life. While my daughter and niece were enjoying the Schlitterban water park-I was off the beach watching the events of the day. A storm blew through and the sea was the most amazing colours. It was the normal light brown close to shore but then it appeared to be striped in alternating bands of chartreuse and dark green-like the outer skin of a watermelon. Then, the sunshine would peak through now and again reflecting like golden glitter in this banding. It truly took my breath away. I missed the dolphins but it was nice to see the pelicans in action.

Happy hunting, watch out for the bears, nd spend your money locally.
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Zenlitened Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 01:13 PM
Response to Original message
51. U.S. Rescue May Reach $23.7 Trillion
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. taxpayers may be on the hook for as much as $23.7 trillion to bolster the economy and bail out financial companies, said Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Treasury’s $700 billion bank-investment program represents a fraction of all federal support to resuscitate the U.S. financial system, including $6.8 trillion in aid offered by the Federal Reserve, Barofsky said in a report released today.

“TARP has evolved into a program of unprecedented scope, scale and complexity,” Barofsky said in testimony prepared for a hearing tomorrow before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Costs include $2.3 trillion in programs offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $7.4 trillion in TARP and other aid from the Treasury and $7.2 trillion in federal money for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, credit unions, Veterans Affairs and other federal programs, he said.

More:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY0tX8UysIaM

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #51
55. Didn't see you had already posted, additional info below. n/t
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jdog Donating Member (569 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
52. "goldman sachs are scum"
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 01:15 PM
Response to Original message
53. Bloomberg: U.S. Rescue May Reach $23.7 Trillion, Barofsky Says
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 02:00 PM by DemReadingDU
7/20/09 U.S. Rescue May Reach $23.7 Trillion, Barofsky Says

By Dawn Kopecki and Catherine Dodge

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. taxpayers may be on the hook for as much as $23.7 trillion to bolster the economy and bail out financial companies, said Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Treasury’s $700 billion bank-investment program represents a fraction of all federal support to resuscitate the U.S. financial system, including $6.8 trillion in aid offered by the Federal Reserve, Barofsky said in a report released today.

“TARP has evolved into a program of unprecedented scope, scale and complexity,” Barofsky said in testimony prepared for a hearing tomorrow before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Costs include $2.3 trillion in programs offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., $7.4 trillion in TARP and other aid from the Treasury and $7.2 trillion in federal money for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, credit unions, Veterans Affairs and other federal programs, he said.

Barofsky offered criticism in a separate quarterly report of Treasury’s implementation of TARP, saying the department has “repeatedly failed to adopt recommendations” needed to provide transparency and fulfill the administration’s goal to implement TARP “with the highest degree of accountability.”

As a result, taxpayers don’t know how TARP recipients are using the money or the value of the investments, he said in the report.

The Treasury has spent $441 billion of TARP funds so far and has allocated $202.1 billion more for other spending.

In the nine months since Congress authorized TARP, Treasury has created 12 programs involving funds that may reach almost $3 trillion, Barofsky said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net; Catherine Dodge in Washington at Cdodge1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 20, 2009 13:37 EDT
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY0tX8UysIaM

*****
This is outrageous. I can think of better things to do with $24 trillion, such as maintaining and upgrading the infrastructure (roads, bridges, water, electrical grid), health care, assisting our war veterans, education, jobs, alternative energy, cancer research. No, never money for the things that we the people need, only money to bail out the banksters.
:mad:


edit
7/20/09 MSNBC: The government's maximum exposure to financial institutions since 2007 could total nearly $24 trillion, or about $80,000 for every American, the watchdog overseeing the federal government financial bailout said Monday. Read more...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32010841/ns/business-us_business/




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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
56. This is so OT, but my young daughter gave me these 2 funny websites....
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 02:25 PM by AnneD
Texts from last night...
Remember the text that you shouldn't have sent last night....we do

http://www.textsfromlastnight.com/

and My life is average

http://mylifeisaverage.com/


Some of these will make you lmaopmp.

Laughter like money is a commodity that should be shared.


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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
58. Isn't it funny how they Runup the Market EVERY SINGLE DAY, but when the Market Closes The Futures
Dive Off A Cliff?

BKX Closes in the Red, Vix Closes in the Green :wtf:

Sheep Munch on the CIT News and act like they know something.

Meanwhile the Dollar continues it's orderly slide into The Abyss.

Oh Well, Football Season Starts soon.

And there is fast food to gobble and the "Will Paula Be Back Or Won't She" Drama on American Idol.

Rome must have been so much saner than this. :banghead:
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #58
59. Like I always optimisticaly say,
Rome wasn't burnt in a day.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. Nope. And neither was Byzantium.
Edited on Mon Jul-20-09 06:06 PM by Ghost Dog
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #61
63. Hi Ghost Dog...
I was just thinking about how long it has been since we've heard from you. Just about to send the search team out.:hi:
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-20-09 09:42 PM
Response to Reply #59
65. Now THAT was funny.
:rofl:
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