STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday July 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday July 24, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 23, 2009



Dow... 9,069.29 +188.03 (+2.07%)

Nasdaq... 1,973.60 +47.22 (+2.45%)

S&P 500... 976.29 +22.22 (+2.33%)

Gold future... 954.80 +1.50 (+0.16%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.66 +0.12 (+3.27%)

30-Year Bond 4.55 +0.11 (+2.43%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[rfranklin]

1. Sorry Ozy, I was trying to recommend and must have hit the...

wrong button. Anyway, good morning!

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning, rfranklin.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

No worries. That is easy to do. I have done the same. Thank you for trying, nonetheless.

:hi:

[Demeter]

7. So, I Zeroed It Out. Good Morning, rfranklin and Ozy!

Did you see? One of my posts made the Greatest AND the Sidebar on the Home Page! I didn't post the article about how those over 50 cannot get a job without single payer healthcare here, because I was sure it was taken as given. But you can give it a look and rec anyway (hint hint!)...

Well, the AANews is history. And what a way to go--the presses broke down and the paper was 3 HOURS LATE! Just to remind us all what we hate about working for the company, I'm sure. My last truck showed up at 5:30pm; on time delivery by me is 5pm.

If my typing is blurry, it's because I still haven't recovered from Tuesday's Condo board meeting, which ran until midnight. 6 hours used to be a regular length meeting. We had gotten it down to 3 hours most months, but there's a lot of stuff going on now....the perils of volunteer work!

And it's Friday again. I remember how I used to hate Mondays; now it's geting to be Fridays that roll around too quickly. This will be my first day NOT delivering papers since I took a vacation....how many years ago? I forget.

Anyway, there's a Weekend Economist in our future. I think tonight our theme will be the Monkees! After all, what could be more appropriate, given recent events? Look for it tonight, in the Editorials Forum!

[Warpy]

31. I've learned not to rec threads until I've been awake

for at least an hour.

I've done that one, too, and spent the rest of the day kicking myself.

The roller coaster ride should be interesting today with a bunch of rover boys harvesting the profits from the past week.

[mrdmk]

42. You forgot the only time one can recommend is between 1 to 2 cups of coffee

Less than one cup of coffee and one is not awake.

More than two cups of coffee and one has the jitters and may miss the mark.

If people do not follow this rule there will a up-surge in Prozac profits (a.k.a. Eli Lilly @ 34.45)

[ozymandius]

2. HELP request: I need to be away some time next week.

Dear Marketeers,

I will need to be out-of-town without easy access to a computer on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. May I prevail upon someone's good nature to post this thread on those days?

Should you choose to accept this gig, I will forward to you the code sheet and relevant links to update the daily data and to start the day first few posts.

Please respond here and then we can conduct further arrangements over PM.

Thank you so much for your consideration.

ozymandius :hi:

[Demeter]

8. Okay, I Volunteer

[ozymandius]

11. Thank you!

Please PM me and we'll make the arrangements. :hug:

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. U'll miss the Treasury auction...200plus BILLION in a week???

:donut:
July 27th
13 week Bills, $32 billion
26 week Bills, $31 billion
19 year, 6 month TIPS Reopened $6 Billion
July 28th
52 week Bills, $27 billion
2 year Notes, $42 billion
July 29th
5 year Notes, $39 billion
July 30th
7 year Notes, $28 billion

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press_secannpr.htm

One can only hope that this is not a pace they expect to be able to maintain.

K & R

[Dr.Phool]

17. A few billion here. A few billion there. Pretty soon, you're talking some serious money.

That much in a year, is bad enough. In a week is unfathomable.

[UpInArms]

25. it looks like Demeter stepped to the plate,

but if you need me, I'll be there.

:hi:

[Demeter]

27. I Expect You to Post Your Usual, and then some!

We did good last time Ozy took a break, IIRC.

[UpInArms]

32. so long as he gives you the

we can shop 'til we drop :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

4. Market Observation

Letting the Tape Talk
by quint tatro

If participants haven’t learned over the last 2 weeks that markets are irrational and could care less about data points, they have missed the biggest message of all. I often relay a famous trading quote to people in that there is no bull side, or bear side, there is merely the right side, and these past two weeks investors who have rested on any sort of economic or fundamental thesis have either missed the entire move up, or fought it with losing shorts. While the major media and some very smart minds will attempt to tell you just why the market did what it did, the simple fact is that there were too many bears, leaning the wrong way sparking one of the most powerful short squeezes I have seen in some time. Add in a pinch of underinvested money managers, and a splash of performance anxiety and you have all the makings of a rip snorting run higher.

The sad part is that unless you have been fully invested, which means you’re still sitting on last year’s massive losses, odds are you missed the run and are now scratching your head on how to proceed from here. Well, rather than hit you with some personal thesis or downright guess of where we can go from here, let’s take a look at the charts. First off however, let’s take a deep breath, a step back and remember that rarely if ever will markets go straight up or straight down. If this is the start of a sustained bullish move, we will have ample time to play it. The key however is that you can even accept that possibility. If you cannot, you are already trading with a bias which is never a winning strategy. If this is the top and we roll over from here, just like potential longs, shorts will set up and make themselves known.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

---

New guy. He likes to write. I don't think it means much.

[Demeter]

28. Are Markets Irrational, or Manipulated Beyond All Recognition?

[mbperrin]

43. I'll take one from column B, please.

Unless we really believe that folks like Goldman are just lucky when the markets are irrational....

[ozymandius]

5. Today's Report

09:55 Mich Sentiment-Rev Jul
Briefing.com 64.5
Consensus 65.0
Prior 64.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

35. July UMich consumer sentiment 66.0

U.S. July UMich consumer sentiment 66.0
9:57am Today

[UpInArms]

36. US consumers' mood wanes in final July read -survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2444982120090724

NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence waned in late July to the lowest reading since April on growing pessimism about the long-term economic outlook, a survey showed on Friday, even as some economists reckon the longest recession in decades may be easing.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final July consumer sentiment reading fell to 66.0 from June's 70.8, though it was slightly higher than economists' median expectation for a reading of 65.0, according to a Reuters poll.

The index of consumer expectations fell to 63.2 in July's final reading, from 69.2 in June.

"Consumers believe that the economic free-fall is now over, but consumers see little reason to believe the stimulus policies will improve their financial condition anytime soon," the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

Lower income and less favorable job prospects in the next year are key factors making consumers anxious about their financial position, the statement said.

...a bit more...

[Demeter]

45. All I Can Say Is They Must Not Ask Anyone Actually IN Michigan to Get That Number!

Unemployment in Ann Arbor Itself has hit 10.5%, and it's still the best number in the state.

[ozymandius]

6. Oil holds above $67 amid improving US economy

Oil prices held above $67 a barrel Friday, adding to gains made overnight, as world stock markets rallied on signs of improvement in the U.S. economy.

By midday in Europe, benchmark crude for September delivery was up 11 cents to $67.27 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, the contract added $1.76 to settle at $67.16.

Evidence that the recession-hit U.S. economy is strengthening has bolstered investor optimism and triggered a rally from $58.78 a barrel two weeks ago. While crude demand hasn't rebounded yet, traders have begun to have more faith that consumption will eventually pick up.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 0.29 cent to $1.9161 a gallon and heating oil gained 0.75 cent to $1.7719. Natural gas for August delivery jumped 4.7 cents to $3.597 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

9. SEC, FDIC heads want new council to be supercop (pass the popcorn!)

WASHINGTON – Key regulators on Thursday broke with the Obama administration, reaffirming their belief that some new powers to monitor big institutions against financial threats should go to an interagency council, not the Federal Reserve.

Some Republican lawmakers also continued to warn against endowing the Fed with new powers in an overhauled system as Congress slogs through a complex deliberation that could reshape the financial landscape in the wake of a historic crisis.

Under the administration's financial overhaul proposal, the central bank as "systemic risk regulator" would be able to duplicate and even overrule other regulators.

But Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Schapiro and Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., stressed to the Senate Banking Committee that crucial role should be played by the new stability oversight council. The body would include the Treasury Department, the Fed, and the two independent agencies headed by Bair and Schapiro.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul_regulators

[Demeter]

16. "Stop Us Before We Kill Again!"

[Demeter]

10. That Cartoon Says It All

What will it take to break the Denial in this country?

[ozymandius]

14. More rampant joblessness while banks gold-plate their washroom faucets?

From my perspective, I see two paths diverging widely. There's the monied class: banks, hedge funds, brokerages. And then there's the rest of us. As current conditions, for us, continue to darken while banks quarterly reports continue to stymie the wildest expectations - the disparity will offer two snapshots in sharp contrast to each other.

That will pop the denial bubble.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Gold-plate, hell. They'll want solid 24k.

G'morning, Ozy & All


They'll keep goin' until they really do go over the cliff, but they'll end up takin' us with 'em.






Tansy Gold

[fasttense]

44. Give it about a month, the next shoe is about to drop on the failing economy

and this shoe is a bit worse than the last one.

[Demeter]

12. Are Banks Really on the Mend? By Ian Mathias

http://dailyreckoning.com/are-banks-really-on-the-mend/


You can rest easy today… the financial crisis is over.

CIT Group, the new epicenter of systemic financial risk, got thrown a lifeline this week from its bondholders. As reported Friday, the company needed $3 billion — fast — in order to stay afloat. It was rightfully denied a government bailout, but was able to strike a last-minute deal with holders of its debt. Of course, the market rejoiced… the S&P 500 rose 1.1% largely on the news.

But again, we’re calling the market’s bluff. Anybody read the fine print of this deal? The loan was secured by “substantially all unencumbered assets.” That lawyer talk means CIT will have no collateral left over for a similar deal in the future. What’s more, the company will have to pay 13% annually on the $3 billion loan… no small order.

But most importantly, the whole deal is an ugly microcosm of 2008-2009. No problem has actually been fixed at CIT. The business still finances loans to tens of thousands of small businesses by borrowing from the credit market. CIT’s business model is still broken. They are still massively in debt. All they’ve done is create another liability.

(Just as we were about to publish, CIT filed a warning with the SEC, saying that their bondholder rescue might not keep them out of bankruptcy. Wouldn’t you know it – they’ve got more bills coming due! On August 17th they’ll have to cough up another $1 billion. And so the madness continues.…)

Nevertheless, coupled with the recent earnings surprises from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi, “investors were encouraged to see that the financial sector can take care of itself, without government bailout funds,” as CNN put it. Heh… right.

“Anyone who takes this as evidence of a recovering economy should work for the government,” sneers Bill Bonner. “Only a government economist or a mental defective (excuse us for being redundant) could believe that genuine prosperity can be built on a foundation of speculating by large financial institutions. You can see why by asking a simple question: Whom were they trading against?

“The banks’ core business is actually getting worse! The core business of banking is lending to people who are capable of paying it back — out of earnings. If the borrower is counting on higher house prices… or higher stock prices… to allow him to refinance on better terms, the lender is asking for trouble. Prices may go up… or they may go down. And if they go down, down goes the lender’s collateral too… and his hope of getting repaid.

“The banks made big mistakes in the bubble years. And now they’re paying the price. But so far, they’ve only made the first installment payment. Subprime loans started going bad two years ago. Then, people began losing their jobs… and loans of all sorts were in trouble.

“There is no sign that this process is over. Instead, it is merely proceeding in good order… just as you’d expect.”

[Demeter]

15. The Reality of Fictitious Jobs By The Mogambo Guru

http://dailyreckoning.com/the-reality-of-fictitious-jobs/

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 467,000 jobs were lost in June, bringing total non-farm employment down to 140.2 million, which, although bad, could have been worse, as I personally haven’t been fired yet, which is the only good news in the whole thing, as far as I can see.

The Bureau reports that, officially, “The number of unemployed persons (14.7 million) and the unemployment rate (9.5%) were little changed in June,” which was helped by the fact that the labor force actually went down by the 358,000 people who stopped looking for work.

The tally so far is that “Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 7.2 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 4.6 percentage points”, essentially doubling.

Bloomberg.com put it as “The world’s largest economy has lost about 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. That’s the biggest drop in any post-World War II economic slump.”

Continuing the bad news, the Bureau goes on “The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million”, which doesn’t even mention how shadowstats.com calculates unemployment at over 20% the old-fashioned way like everybody did for the last zillion years or so before the loathsome Alan Greenspan and the equally odious Michael Boskin came up with new “ways” of measuring unemployment (“He’s too stupid to get a job, so he doesn’t count as unemployed!”), just as they did with “hedonic indexing” so as to disguise inflation (“You got fancy hubcaps on that car, so even though you paid a lot more than you did last year, the car is actually cheaper!”).

The reason for this is so that Alan Greenspan and his absurd Federal Reserve could raise their fat, worthless butts out of their chairs, point at the new low unemployment figure and low inflation figures, and then use the mostly-discredited Phillips Curve (the theoretical tradeoff between inflation and unemployment) to say, “Unemployment and inflation are low! We can now create more and more money and credit without anything happening to us, even though all the previous tons and tons of new money and credit that we already created have produced roaring bubbles in stocks, bonds, houses, derivatives and size of governments!”

The report, as part of a national conspiracy to silence the Message Of The Mogambo (MOTM), did not make any mention whatsoever of my Disrespectful Mogambo Broadside (DMB) at these two despicable people and the result they had on unemployment statistics, but the report noted that the average work week fell to 33 hours (down from 33.1 hours in May), which is the lowest average hours worked per week on record since records began in 1964, which unsurprisingly reduced average weekly earnings down to $611.49 from $613.34 a week.

Fortunately, workers’ average hourly wages were $18.53, the same as last month, and which were nominally 2.7% higher than June 2008. It was the smallest gain in quite a few years, but you probably did not notice that “smallest gain in quite a few years” remark since you were fixated on the fact that I said that average hourly wages were “nominally” higher, and now you are dispirited because you know that this means that I am going to go off on some loud, hysterical tangent about inflation and if you deflate that piddly 2.7% gain in paychecks by the rate of inflation in the last year, you will doubtlessly notice that people’s real, inflation-adjusted incomes have been going downhill, and for a long, long time, because wages have not kept pace with the increase in prices, which probably explains why so many people are so angry because they can’t afford to buy anything and I won’t loan them any more money.

Zerohedge.blogspot.com expands on that, and says, “Over the past two months, it has become obvious that while continuing claims have doubled (up 124% to be precise from March 2007), another, potentially more troubling observation is that Monthly Unemployment Payments have doubled the rate of increase in jobless claims (234% from March 2007 based on the Treasury Daily Statement).”

And all these unemployment checks are getting pretty expensive, as Zero says, “In summary, over the past two years, while unemployment claims have climbed from 2,688 million in March 2007 to 6,157 in May 2009, monthly unemployment payments have skyrocketed from $3,238 million to $10,807 million over the same time period” and that the trend is that we will soon set a new record “for unemployment benefits, at $12,354 million.”

It was probably the blank look on my face that betrayed my utter confusion as how in the hell this is possible that prompted them to try and explain “What all this means is that the Average Monthly Unemployment ‘Paycheck’ has exploded from on average $1,000 to $1,800 in recent months (and over $2,000 for June).”

And, again, the “official” unemployment figures were goosed by the government’s CES Birth/Death Model, which estimates the number of jobs added by new business and those deleted by defunct companies that are all too new to be added to official statistics and they somehow divined that 185,000 jobs were somehow, somewhere, created.

Anthony Cherniawski of thepracticalinvestor.com says it’s worse than that, and he wonders “what the true unemployment numbers really are, since the CES model has added 879,000 fictitious jobs since February.”

Fictitious jobs! Perfect! Fictitious jobs, fictitious competence in government, education and journalism, fictitious wealth in stocks, bonds, houses and derivatives, all made with fictitious money made of paper and bits of computer memory!

One can only be thankful (“Thank you!”) for gold and silver, which have maintained their values for over 4,500 years when paper money, and most of the assets denominated in it, have all gone to zero value, a fact that should make you squeal with delight, “Whee! This investing stuff is easy!”

[Dr.Phool]

18. Cuyahoga County median home price leaps 85 percent over first quarter

:crazy: :wtf: :crazy:

I'm not even going to try to figure this one out. The reporter posted this at 4:00am. That's an hour and a half after the bars close in Cleveland.
------------------------------------------------

Cuyahoga County median home price leaps 85 percent over first quarter
Posted by Mark Gillispie / Plain Dealer Reporter July 24, 2009 04:00AM

The median price for single-family homes in Cuyahoga County skyrocketed 85 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, a jump that shows not only how far the housing market has fallen but also how much room it has to grow.

The median price rose from $48,000 to $89,000 from the first to the second quarter while the number of sales increased 32 percent, according to a Plain Dealer analysis of real estate transfer records from the Cuyahoga County auditor's office.

Only existing single-family homes that sold for more than $1 were included in the analysis. The calculation did not include homes sold at sheriff's sale after a foreclosure.

Real estate agents attribute the second-quarter increase to more confident buyers, low prices and interest rates, a federal tax credit for first-time home buyers and a decline in the number of cheap, foreclosed homes that have helped contribute to the biggest crash in the housing market since the Great Depression.

(more)

http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2009/07/cuyahoga_countys_median_home_p.html

[Demeter]

29. I Think It Means Somebody Actually Bought a House There

[Tansy_Gold]

39. Seeing as how they left out the $1 sales, the foreclosures, etc.

There probably weren't many "real" sales to base the numbers on.

Poor Cleveland.




Tansy Gold, former midwesterner

[boomerbust]

19. Hey Ozy

Just have to give a shout out to Georgia this morning. The local resort town grocery store was selling Georgia peaches and I must say it was the best piece of fruit this Yankee has consumed. As big as a softball and oh so tasty.:toast:

[ozymandius]

21. Great!

We have had a significant amount of rain this year. Every variety of produce seems to be doing so well. My own garden is having a grand ol' time.

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.753 Change -0.246 (-0.32%)

Risk Appetite Soars, But the Currency Market Waits for Its Own Critical Break

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Risk_Appetite_Soars__But_the_1248391305003.html



Over the past week, we have witnessed an aggressive shift in market sentiment. Fueled by impressive second quarter earnings data, risk appetite has left its imprint on all markets. However, whereas equities have managed to push to new multi-month highs, we have seen currencies hold off from taking that last step towards an out-right bull trend. Now, with corporate accounting figures running dry and growth indicators taking over the headlines, we will see the primary fundamental driver for the markets change; but does this also mean a change in direction? Whether destined to make a late break or tumble into an aggressive retracement; the currency market is at a turning point for sentiment and likely trend. Looking at the Carry Trade Index, short-term momentum is clear; and more importantly, the rally of the past week fits into the gradual bias that has been developing since the beginning of February. This composite (made up of the those pairs with the largest interest differentials) has in fact tested highs not seen in nine months; but we have not yet fully cleared the highs set in early June. This is a good representation of not only those pairs that are clear carry trade fodder, it corresponds to the state of the majors as well. The most liquid pair in the market, EURUSD has similarly held back from overtaking 1.4340 to forge new highs for the year. The circumstances are the same for GBPUSD, USDCHF and AUDUSD. However, we have yet to determine whether this is a temporary situation or a prophetic pause. With the Dow closing above 9,000 and crude oil closing its seventh consecutive daily advance, something has to give.

Monitoring the fundamental path of the market’s recent rally, it was relatively clear that a strong start to the second quarter earnings season was the primary motivator for the sudden reversal in optimism. In the first wave of releases, a record profit for Goldman Sachs and strong performance by two blue chips initiated the turn. Since then, the market has seen a considerable number of better-than-expected reports. On the other hand, there have been just as many disappointments. Determining whether or not we are looking at a genuine revival of the bull trend that has dominated price action for much of this year requires a critical analysis of those forces underlying the rally. Much of this recent rally can be attributed to speculation. For the past six months, investment trends have drifted higher thanks to an influx of capital into the traditional asset classes and the vague consensus that the worst of the global recession has passed. What the earnings data contributed was confirmation that the recovery in economic activity was showing through at the corporate level; and therefore, the foundation for production, employment and earnings was in place. What is being overlooked though is that, like the economy itself, earnings data confirms the corporate sector is stabilizing – not that it is in fact growing. Regardless, the earnings season is already on the decline; and a new catalyst will likely have to be found. This sets GDP data for the heavy lifting.

...more...

Currencies Very Well Supported on Dips

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/Currencies_Very_Well_Supported_on_1248433270972.html

Fundys – The Euro was well bid overnight with stable equity prices and better than expected data helping to prop the market above 1.4200. Impressive German IFO and stronger Eurozone and German PMI results were seen as the main catalysts for the Euro buying, while some very weak data out of the UK helped to open a surge in cross related Euro interest through Eur/Gbp, which also helped to bolster the Euro. UK GDP came out much weaker than had been forecast and resulted in an underperformance for Sterling on the day. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar remained quite firm following Thursday’s release of the Bank of Canada monetary policy report which disclosed the central bank’s opinion that the recession would end in the third quarter. Comments from the Canadian trade minister that the stronger Loonie was hurting exports has failed to weigh on the currency thus far. ECB Gonzalez-Paramo said that rates were appropriate, while both ECB Nowotny and Orphanides said it was too early to talk of recovery. Looking ahead, the focus will very much be on the US equity markets, with the direction there to dictate the direction of the FX market. Michigan sentiment (65 expected) is due at 14:00GMT, while Fed Chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 14:30GMT. US equity futures and commodities are trading modestly higher into the US open.

Techs - EUR/USD Inching even closer towards the 1.4340, 2009 highs, with the market taking out Tuesday’s 1.4280 high to open an assault on figure resistance by 1.4300 which guards against 1.4340. Inability to establish above 1.4340 followed by a break back below 1.4155 will be viewed as bearish and once again put the pressure back on the downside. We remain sidelined until a clearer opportunity presents. USD/JPY Remains locked in a downtrend off of the yearly highs by 101.45 and a lower top is now sought out below 97.00, ahead of the next drop. We had thought that the 94.80 level could act as the next lower top, but with this level now taken out, additional upside is now seen back into the 95.00’s. The internal trend-line in the chart above shows the next potential lower top now coming in by 95.65. Only back above 97.00 will ultimately force a shift in our outlook. GBP/USD Despite the recent rally back into the 1.6500’s we do not rule out the potential for a failure ahead of 1.6745 as we still hang on to the possibility for the formation of the right shoulder of a very loose and messy head & shoulders top. However, a sharp pullback will need to take place over the coming days for this topping scenario to play out. Key levels to watch over the coming session come in by 1.6585 and 1.6385. USD/CHF attempting to carve out a meaningful base and Thursday’s break back above 1.0720 helps to take some pressure off of the downside. Back under 1.0590 delays.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Guaranty Financial, No. 2 Texas bank, says may fail

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2444567320090724

NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - Guaranty Financial Group Inc (GFG.N), the second-largest publicly traded bank in Texas, said it will probably fail after loan losses and writedowns left it "critically" short of capital.

In a regulatory filing late on Thursday, the Austin-based lender said it had been unable to obtain a capital infusion from its shareholders, and believes it will not be eligible for help from federal regulators.

Guaranty has about $16 billion of assets and more than 150 branches in Texas and California, according to its website. On that basis, if it were to fail, Guaranty would be the largest U.S. bank to do so in 2009.

Companies owned by billionaire investor Carl Icahn own 17 percent of Guaranty, Reuters data show. Neither Guaranty nor Icahn immediately returned calls seeking comment.

Guaranty has been operating under a cease-and-desist order from the federal Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) since April, and said it does not expect to raise sufficient capital to comply with the order. It said losses and writedowns have left it "critically undercapitalized," with negative capital ratios.

"In light of these developments, the company believes that it is probable that it will not be able to continue as a going concern," Guaranty said.

The company also said it has agreed to an OTS demand that the regulator exercise its statutory authority to appoint the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp as a receiver or conservator for the bank.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Kuwaiti financier (linked to Shitigroup) sued by SEC over takeover hoaxes

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56M4VA20090723?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Securities regulators on Thursday sued a well-connected Kuwaiti financier whose investment firm is partly owned by Citigroup Inc, saying he reaped millions in suspicious profits after "fraudulent" takeover reports sent shares of two U.S. companies soaring.

The civil lawsuit against Hazem Khalid Al-Braikan is sure to send shockwaves through the Middle East investment community. Al-Braikan, who declined to comment when reached by telephone, lists many achievements on his resume, including a U.S. Medal of Honor for service in the first Gulf War -- a claim the U.S. Army says is bogus.

Al-Braikan is chief executive of Al-Raya Investment Company, which is 10 percent owned by Citigroup. A familiar figure at high-level Middle Eastern financial functions, dressed in traditional Arab robe and speaking impeccable English, he is considered a respected member of the Kuwaiti money management world.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said in papers filed in Manhattan federal court that Al-Braikan and entities linked to him in Kuwait and Bahrain earned more than $5 million from well-timed trades in Harman International Industries Inc and Textron Inc.

In Washington, a top SEC enforcement division official, Scott Friestad, said: "This is pretty brazen misconduct."

He said that an investigation began soon after learning about the takeover hoax on Monday at the same time as the markets and media outlets.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

40. You mean, that's not legal?

Gee, I thought it was. I thought that's the way the whole market actually worked.



:sarcasm: just in case.




Tansy Gold

[Capn Sunshine]

46. How come they never sued the pre 911 short traders?

oh, right........

[dixiegrrrrl]

47. That ought to make headlines just because the SEC is doing something for a change.

Please let this be a portent of things to come.

[UpInArms]

26. Pilgrim's Pride plans to idle two plants

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pilgrims-pride-plans-to-idle-two-plants-2009-07-24

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pilgrim's Pride Corp. (PGPDQ 4.70, -0.10, -2.08%) said Friday that it plans to idle a chicken-processing plant in Athens, Ala., and a plant in Athens, Ga., within 60 to 75 days. The meat producer said the moves are part of the company's ongoing effort to improve capacity utilization and cut costs. About 970 workers will be affected by the closures, although many will be offered jobs at other facilities, the company said, noting that the plans will not result in lower overall production.

[Demeter]

30. Cut Back Supply in the Face of Falling Demand

If the poultry were raised to world standards, instead of "manufactured", this wouldn't be necessary...

[UpInArms]

33. Stock Traders Find Speed Pays, in Milliseconds

hat tip to kpete and this DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3984225

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24trading.html?_r=2&hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1248440431-piRj8gUXNtgUHfE8g7vd7A

It is the hot new thing on Wall Street, a way for a handful of traders to master the stock market, peek at investors’ orders and, critics say, even subtly manipulate share prices.

It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets.

Powerful computers, some housed right next to the machines that drive marketplaces like the New York Stock Exchange, enable high-frequency traders to transmit millions of orders at lightning speed and, their detractors contend, reap billions at everyone else’s expense.

These systems are so fast they can outsmart or outrun other investors, humans and computers alike. And after growing in the shadows for years, they are generating lots of talk.

Nearly everyone on Wall Street is wondering how hedge funds and large banks like Goldman Sachs are making so much money so soon after the financial system nearly collapsed. High-frequency trading is one answer.

And when a former Goldman Sachs programmer was accused this month of stealing secret computer codes — software that a federal prosecutor said could “manipulate markets in unfair ways” — it only added to the mystery. Goldman acknowledges that it profits from high-frequency trading, but disputes that it has an unfair advantage.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. here's the cheat: (more from the link)

It was July 15, and Intel, the computer chip giant, had reporting robust earnings the night before. Some investors, smelling opportunity, set out to buy shares in the semiconductor company Broadcom. (Their activities were described by an investor at a major Wall Street firm who spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect his job.) The slower traders faced a quandary: If they sought to buy a large number of shares at once, they would tip their hand and risk driving up Broadcom’s price. So, as is often the case on Wall Street, they divided their orders into dozens of small batches, hoping to cover their tracks. One second after the market opened, shares of Broadcom started changing hands at $26.20.

The slower traders began issuing buy orders. But rather than being shown to all potential sellers at the same time, some of those orders were most likely routed to a collection of high-frequency traders for just 30 milliseconds — 0.03 seconds — in what are known as flash orders. While markets are supposed to ensure transparency by showing orders to everyone simultaneously, a loophole in regulations allows marketplaces like Nasdaq to show traders some orders ahead of everyone else in exchange for a fee.

In less than half a second, high-frequency traders gained a valuable insight: the hunger for Broadcom was growing. Their computers began buying up Broadcom shares and then reselling them to the slower investors at higher prices. The overall price of Broadcom began to rise.

Soon, thousands of orders began flooding the markets as high-frequency software went into high gear. Automatic programs began issuing and canceling tiny orders within milliseconds to determine how much the slower traders were willing to pay. The high-frequency computers quickly determined that some investors’ upper limit was $26.40. The price shot to $26.39, and high-frequency programs began offering to sell hundreds of thousands of shares.

The result is that the slower-moving investors paid $1.4 million for about 56,000 shares, or $7,800 more than if they had been able to move as quickly as the high-frequency traders.

Multiply such trades across thousands of stocks a day, and the profits are substantial. High-frequency traders generated about $21 billion in profits last year, the Tabb Group, a research firm, estimates.

shut them all down - now.

[Demeter]

38. Illuminating!

Second-hand insider information trading as well as first, and the second hand wins out! Diabolical.

[UpInArms]

37. Treasury Dept puts Carlyle agent on the Board of GM

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24auto.html

DETROIT — General Motors filled out its new board on Thursday and announced a wave of management changes, including the retirements of several longtime executives and the elimination of some vice president jobs.

The Treasury Department named four more directors to represent its 60 percent stake in the automaker. They are Daniel F. Akerson, managing director of the private equity firm Carlyle Group; David Bonderman, co-founding partner of TPG Capital; Robert D. Krebs, retired chairman and chief executive of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad; and Patricia F. Russo, former chief executive of the telecommunications company Alcatel-Lucent. The Treasury has appointed a total of 10 members to the new G.M. board.

Carol Stephenson, dean of the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario, will represent the Canadian government, which owns 11.7 percent.

They will join eight others on the board, including the recently appointed chairman, Edward E. Whitacre Jr., and G.M.’s chief executive, Fritz Henderson. Each member who is not a G.M. employee will be paid a cash retainer of $200,000 a year. Mr. Whitacre will be paid at least $350,000.

Several of the new directors, including Mr. Whitacre, the former chairman of AT&T, have experience in the telecommunications industry but none have automotive backgrounds. The Obama administration wanted nearly a clean slate of directors to ensure that the company would move away from practices that led to its downfall and last month’s bankruptcy filing.

“The members of this new board of directors bring immense experience and diverse perspectives to the table, and that’s exactly what G.M. needs,” Mr. Whitacre said in a statement. “The collective expertise of the new B.O.D. is vital at this time as G.M. seeks to redefine itself as the vehicle design and customer care leader of the extremely competitive auto business.”

...more...

:steamingmad:

[Dr.Phool]

41. My consumer confidence is up!

I just scored Springsteen tickets! :evilgrin: :hippie: :toast: :evilgrin:

Choice. Food or Springsteen. A mans gotta do, what a mans gotta do.

The last time I saw him was in 2004, with R.E.M., at the Concert for Change in Orlando. A lot has changed since then. But, not what we wanted.

[Festivito]

48. Debt: 07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 (UP 10,025,291,002.08) (Debt up.)

(Debt moved up, FICA side went down a very small amount.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,264,963,795,966.75 + 4,340,557,283,875.38
UP 10,040,233,982.08 + DOWN 14,942,980.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,933,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,811.19.
A family of three owes $113,433.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,589,013,856.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,584,910,623.04.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 127 reports in 184 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.20B$ per report, -0.04B$/day so far.
There were 202 reports in 296 days of FY2009 averaging 7.83B$ per report, 5.34B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,277 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 BHO (UP 978,644,030,929.05 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,580,796,182,929.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********

125,155,762,804.20 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,940,889,276,583.06 in last 308 days.
That's 1,941B$ in 308 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 191% of that highest year ever only in 308 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 308 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3982249&mesg_id=3987290

[Festivito]

49. Debt: 07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 (UP 10,025,291,002.08) (Debt up.)

(Debt moved up, FICA side went down a very small amount.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,264,963,795,966.75 + 4,340,557,283,875.38
UP 10,040,233,982.08 + DOWN 14,942,980.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,933,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,811.19.
A family of three owes $113,433.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,589,013,856.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,584,910,623.04.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 127 reports in 184 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.20B$ per report, -0.04B$/day so far.
There were 202 reports in 296 days of FY2009 averaging 7.83B$ per report, 5.34B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,277 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 BHO (UP 978,644,030,929.05 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,580,796,182,929.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********

125,155,762,804.20 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,940,889,276,583.06 in last 308 days.
That's 1,941B$ in 308 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 191% of that highest year ever only in 308 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 308 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3982249&mesg_id=3987290