STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 27

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 27, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 24, 2009



Dow... 9,093.24 +23.95 (+0.26%)

Nasdaq... 1,965.96 -7.64 (-0.39%)

S&P 500... 979.26 +2.97 (+0.30%)

Gold future... 953.10 -1.70 (-0.18%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.66 0.00 (-0.03%)

30-Year Bond 4.54 -0.01 (-0.15%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Ghost Writers In the Sky
BY BRIAN PRETTI

Just so happens the 1Q banking system derivatives report hit the tape a few weeks back. A very quick check in for a number of reasons important to our current circumstances. Yes, derivatives still remain quite the unreconciled macro US financial sector issue of leverage, but given the concentration of ownership of financial derivatives among the large US banks currently well ensconced in the government witness protection program, it’s not the magnitude of exposure most concerning at the moment. You may have seen that Mark Mobius recently mentioned he expects another financial sector panic at some point given the unresolved character of systemic US financial sector derivatives. His time frame was 5-7 years, which is basically an investment lifetime over which few should be holding their collective breath. Rather, the here and now issue as I see it is that banking system derivatives exposure is a tangential measure or corroboration point for US credit cycle growth, or lack thereof. And that’s really the key point this go around in 1Q. The total growth in US banking system notional derivatives in 1Q increased $1.6 trillion. That’s pocket change compared to historical experience of the last two years where average quarterly growth in exposure was $8.5 trillion in notional exposure. Moreover, we need to remember that prior to late last year, our wonderful friends at Goldman Sachs were not included in the official banking system body count, as is now the case. So we had a huge add to the numbers in terms of Goldman, and the nominal growth in notional exposure has still slowed to a near halt. What’s the bottom line here? The bottom line is the lack of growth in the derivatives complex is corroborating the fact that the US credit cycle remains sidelined. Deleveraging is the order of the day. The derivatives report is simply corroboration. And as I’ve proffered far too many times this decade, the US was running on a credit cycle in the prior up economic cycle experience, not a business cycle. In aggregate, it’s the credit cycle that would have been the forward fertilizer for any green shoots that have popped up as of late. The report is telling us the fertilizer bag is empty for now. Wither green shoots? (Pun clearly intended.)

.....

Certainly what transpired with the banks over the last few years in terms of residential mortgage exposure was almost a near death experience for many. But looking ahead, we still have the commercial real estate cycle as well as ongoing and meaningfully deteriorating consumer credit (cards) issues to work through. And all the while, derivatives exposure lies in the background. AIG is the poster child example of showing us that relying on financial risk mitigation is only as meaningful or strong as the financial integrity of the insurer, or counter party, on the other side of the trade. Point being, never has the banking system been more reliant on the integrity of bigger picture financial sector players on the other side of these bilateral netting agreements. And never has the financial sector as a whole been under greater credit cycle deleveraging pressure than we see today. In my mind, counter party risk issues today are a very meaningful watch point.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

8. That Is Actually Relevant!

And the cartoon is precious. The GOP is the gift that keeps on giving. What will stop their deviant behavior? Indictments? I'm waiting for a good FBI raid on the C Street brothel to shut the place down, or any official response to such a blot on the nation. RICO, maybe?

If they can take down Mrtha Stewart and Elliott Spitzer, they can certainly do something about C Street. Of course, if it were in New York....perhaps sociopathy is legal in DC.

[ozymandius]

16. Caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy-

One or the other, certainly both, looks to be the only thing that can bring any elected official spiraling down in flames today.

[snot]

46. but only if they're Dem.

[Roland99]

22. Lovin' the toon!

[Tansy_Gold]

29. I dunno about that gift, Demeter

it's beginning to feel like a box inside a box inside a box inside a box. . . . . . We know we're gonna get something at the end, but we don't know what it is yet.

Or maybe it's just a series of boxes, and as we get each one partly unwrapped, Santa Claus snatches it away and hands us another one. We're so caught up in the excitement of the unwrapping and the anticipation of the gift that we don't realize we haven't really got anything. . . .yet.


I just hope lots and lots and lots of them keep going over the cliff, taking their "gifts" with them.



Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

48. I Know There's a Gold-Plated Turd in this Mess of Ponies Somewhere

to turn a phrase on its head.

[Demeter]

54. I COULD Have Called Them "Studs" or "Stallions"

but I was giggling too hard.

[Tansy_Gold]

62. Believe or not, I have a friend who spray-painted some dried up

old horse poops, put them in plastic bags with fancy labels, and tried -- TRIED -- to sell them at a craft fair a couple years ago for $1/bag.

They didn't sell.

I can't imagine why.




TG

[4dsc]

57. Are we on course to repeat the Japanese experience?

This seem to be a recurring theme on our economic condition


Final comment. Stepping back and trying to look at the very big picture thematically, continuing to be aware of the dynamics of US financial sector derivatives exposure remains an important exercise for a key reason. Although it’s just my perception of the macro that is playing out, it is clear to me that the “fix” US financial authorities have chosen for the economy and the financial sector specifically is an attempted reflation as opposed to the alternative path that would be debt restructuring. In one sense, Japan in the early 1990’s chose the same path. Although holding interest rates at zero and embarking on quantitative easing for Japan were to be temporary measures, they have really become constants over close to the last decade at least.

[Demeter]

63. I Don't Think We Will Be as Lucky as Japan

I think we will be seeing chaos unparalleled and all the world as we know it will end.

fortunately, I think this will screw over the economic elitists more than working people. I think they will never again attain such a stranglehold on a nation.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 New Home Sales Jun
Briefing.com NA
Consensus 352K
Prior 342K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $68 as rally extends to third week

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $68 a barrel Monday in Asia as a rally fueled by an improving economic and corporate outlook extended into a third week.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was up 52 cents to $68.57 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract rose 89 cents to settle at $68.05.

....

Many companies have reported better than expected second quarter company results, bolstering investor sentiment that the worst of a severe global recession is over.

But U.S. gasoline demand so far this summer has remained weak, raising doubts about whether the economy can emerge this year with a strong recovery.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery rose 2.01 cents to $1.94 a gallon and heating oil gained 1.86 cents to $1.80. Natural gas for August delivery fell 6.8 cents to $3.63 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Dr.Phool]

17. More blatant speculation. Will someone please put investment banks to sleep already?

Everything I've read for months indicates that driving is down. Airline miles are down. Trains are side-tracked. And trucks aren't hauling anything.

It's nothing but speculation. Again.

[ozymandius]

20. Oil: the Market is the Manipulation

This is a guest post by Chris Cook. Chris is Former Director of the International Petroleum Exchange, and is now a Strategic Market Consultant and commentator.

Clearly manipulation has been going on in the global market in oil – there's nothing new about that – it's what intermediaries who transact for profit do and have always done. Indeed, some market wags say that trading could be defined as “acceptable market manipulation”. But until the last few years what consenting adults were doing among themselves in the oil market didn't really affect the man in the street.

But things have changed. We have now reached the culmination of a process of financialisation of the oil market to a degree where the market has become entirely sociopathic. It now operates to the detriment of consumers and producers alike and for the benefit of the intermediaries who control the market.

How did we get here? Who's doing it? How are they doing it? And what can be done about it?

---

BP have always been natural traders. Unlike Exxon, who are vertically integrated and produce & refine oil and distribute products, BP sell the oil they produce on the market, and buy the oil they refine. In the years since 1995, BP has made phenomenal profits by trading oil, and oil derivatives.

So have Goldman Sachs. You don't rise to the top in Goldman Sachs unless you are responsible for making a great deal of money: and their energy trading operations have made immense amounts.

The key player in Goldman Sachs is the current CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who rose to the top through Goldman's commodity trading arm J Aron, and indeed he started his career at J Aron before Goldman Sachs bought J Aron over 25 years ago. With his colleague Gary Cohn, Blankfein oversaw the key energy trading portfolio.

It appears clear that BP and Goldman Sachs have been working collaboratively – at least at a strategic level - for maybe 15 years now. Their trading strategy has evolved over time as the global market has developed and become ever more financialised. Moreover, they have been well placed to steer the development of the key global energy market trading platform, and the legal and regulatory framework within which it operates.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5606

ozy here: This is a fine, reasoned exploration of how the oil and oil derivatives market has become totally unhinged from the mechanisms of supply and demand.

[Demeter]

24. Sounds Like It's Illegal, Too

Collaboration?

[ozymandius]

28. It takes two to tango.

In this case, it also takes federal regulators' willingness to turn a blind eye to the action. Congress is also complicit with their inaction to close manipulative loopholes.

[mullard12ax7]

58. This phrase sums up the entirety of "deregulation":

"It now operates to the detriment of consumers and producers alike and for the benefit of the intermediaries who control the market."

That is true in most U.S. markets now like healthcare, investments, even state governments.

[Demeter]

64. Good Point, and Unfortunately True

However, it cannot continue, so it won't.

[ozymandius]

4. U.S. may push bailed-out firms to rework pay: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A U.S. Treasury official overseeing compensation at firms that got big federal bailouts may renegotiate pay packages that he thinks are too generous, the Wall Street Journal reported on its website on Sunday.

The official, Kenneth Feinberg, is expected to press firms and employees to rework contracts that are too high, the paper said. If that does not happen, he may reduce compensation in other ways, including future pay, the paper said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090727/bs_nm/us_treasury_pay

[Demeter]

10. Citigroup May Be in Pay Squeeze

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroup-may-be-in-pay-squeeze-2009-07-25?siteid=yahoomy

By Jennifer Waters, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. could find itself between a rock and a hard spot as it determines how to handle a hefty pay package that is likely to draw the ire of the government, investors and the public, according to a media report Sunday.

A star trader and his team have threatened to quit the financial giant's Phibro LLC energy-trading unit if their 2009 contracts, which could earn them as much as $100 million, are not met, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition.

But Citigroup, which has received some $45 billion in bailout money from the U.S. government, could put itself in the center of a controversy if it honors the contract, much like American International Group Inc. did earlier this year when it paid out $165 million in bonuses.

Andrew Hall heads up a small group of traders that has made hundreds of millions of dollars in profit to Citigroup for many years, the Journal reported. This year's and future profits are key to Citigroup's recovery.

If the company refuses to pay Hall and the others, that could prompt the group to leave en masse and sue Citigroup.

However, if Citigroup hands out such handsome profits, it could be in trouble with Kenneth Feinberg, the Treasury Department czar whose job it is to set pay for top executives and highly paid employees at the seven firms that have received big bailouts.

"Companies will need to convince Mr. Feinberg that they have struck the right balance to discourage excessive risk-taking and reward performance for their top executives," a spokesman told the Journal.

For its part, Citigroup said in a statement that "Retaining and attracting the best talent is very important to the success of Citi and all its stakeholders. Citi continues to examine ways to ensure its employee-compensation practices are competitive in this very challenging market environment."

Among the options Citigroup is considering in this case is a spinoff of Phibro, which would enable Citi to continue to siphon off some of the unit's profits without having the responsibility of the pay packages, the Journal said.

[ozymandius]

23. "dead other than by the grace of the US taxpayer"

On The Sanctity of Wall Street Pay posted by Yves Smith

I am sorry to make Roger Ehrenberg an object lesson as far as this post is concerned, because I am a fan of his work. He is articulate and insightful. I have often featured his posts in Links as opposed to in posts and felt a bit bad about it, in that I wanted to give them more attention, but had nothing to add.

However, I am sick and tired of the "sanctity of contract" theme as far as outsized bonuses from "dead other than by the grace of the US taxpayer" organizations are concerned, and Ehrenberg lobbed in a vote firmly in the "sanctity of contract" camp. And while he does argue for changes in what he calls the Wall Street trader compensation model, the record does not give much reason to think his suggested remedies will actually change behavior all that much.

First, to the "sanctity of contracts" bit. I don't seem to recall many, or frankly any Wall Street types going on about sanctity of contracts when agreements with the UAW were reworked to save GM. So tell my why should big financial firms that would be toast other than by virtue of the munificence of the suffering American taxpayer be any different? The case that is getting everyone exercised is Andrew Hall of Citigroup, which is the lead candidate in the zombie bank casting call. Hall would have NO contract had nature been permitted to run its course. That inconvenient fact does not seem to be acknowledged by Hall defenders.

.....

Let's consider another case where "sanctity of contracts" didn't stand for much: credit default swaps. A little bit of history that has gone by the wayside: CDS written pre the Delphi bankruptcy required presentation of the bond for the protection buyer to collect. Delphi was the first large bankruptcy and was considered to be a test of the market. The industry realized the Delphi CDS outstanding greatly exceeded the amount of cash bonds. That meant first, there would be a mad scramble to buy bonds to present at the settlement, meaning a huge price squeeze, and second, the overwhelming majority of people who had bought protection would find it to be useless.

ozy here: I am in Yves' camp. If you have followed the journey of our credit and consumerist breakdown, the sanctity of the contract has always been a rallying cry when protecting the Banksters. People who were victimized by easy money policies, lax controls against (any) market manipulation, and similar - not so much.

[Tansy_Gold]

31. I was gonna post my own comments about this

when I saw the original post about reworking "employees" pay contracts.

You gotta know it's gonna be the workers, not the managers, who will find their pay cut. It's not the sanctity of the contract; it's the sanctuary of wealth.





TG

[snot]

51. What about the sanctity of the "Social Contract"

with chumps like some of us, who busted ass for decades, "entrepreneurially" and w/o job security let alone any prospect of pensions, stayed out of debt, saved, invested -- and whose lifetime savings got looted last fall? and who now can no longer afford to retire, but are too old to get a job?

[Demeter]

55. What Social Contract?

They keep trying to void our Social Security, and that was written on paper and paid for!

[ozymandius]

5. AP INVESTIGATION: Main Street's soaring sour loans

REDWOOD CITY, Calif. – As the effects of the economic collapse began pouring down Main Street, the government last year was left holding a record $2.1 billion in write-offs of small business loans it had guaranteed. Officials expect the number of defaults to rise as the nation continues to climb out of the recession.

Records obtained under the federal Freedom of Information Act show the public is paying to offset bank losses on small business loans across the country, from a convenience story in the tiny Canadian border town of Houlton, Maine, to a graphic arts design company on the island of Hawaii, more than 5,000 miles away.

Despite having loans written off, little companies such as Caffe Sportivo, an espresso shop and small gym in Redwood City, Calif., are barely scraping by.

.....

SBA loan defaults generally occur in two stages. The first is when the bank decides it won't get its money back and asks the government for the guaranteed portion of the loan. In the second, the government decides it won't get any more collateral or money from the borrower.

Years can elapse between the time that the borrower stops paying and the government writes off the loan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090727/ap_on_go_ot/us_down_on_main_street

[ozymandius]

6. Lending slowdown in US: report

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Leading US banks are not lending as much as bankers and borrowers refrain from taking risks in the uncertain economy, The Wall Street Journal reported.

An analysis by the Journal showed the total loans held by 15 large US banks shrank by 2.8 percent in the second quarter, and that more than half of the loan volume in April and May came from refinancing mortgages and renewing credit to businesses and not fresh loans.

The banks surveyed include financial giants such as J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup as well as regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp, based in Cincinnati, and Regions Financial Corp. of Birmingham, Alabama.

....

On a year-to-year basis, total loans held by the 15 big banks rose 17 percent from 3.6 trillion dollars in the second quarter of last year, the paper reported.

But the increase was skewed by the impact of acquisitions that included J.P. Morgan's takeover of the banking operations of Washington Mutual and Wachovia's purchase by Wells Fargo Bank, it said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090727/bs_afp/useconomyfinancebankingloans

[DemReadingDU]

39. CNN: Regional banks face a big commercial real estate problem

7/27/09 Get ready for banking's next headache
A weak economy and frozen financing markets could spell trouble for regional banks with big commercial loan portfolios.

Regional banks can no longer ignore the elephant in the room -- their exposure to the commercial real estate bust.

Though housing markets remain weak, analysts expect credit problems over the next year to center on commercial real estate -- mortgages on office and apartment buildings and shopping malls, as well as construction, development and industrial loans.

U.S. banks hold some $1.8 trillion worth of commercial loans, according to Federal Reserve data. Big regional banks, including PNC (PNC, Fortune 500) of Pittsburgh, KeyCorp (KEY, Fortune 500) of Cleveland and BB&T (BBT, Fortune 500) of Richmond, Va., have more than half their loan books in commercial loans.

With financing markets locked up and the economy still mired in recession -- unemployment is at a 26-year high while capacity utilization, a key measure of industrial production, recently hit a record low -- observers fear a wave of loans will go bad in coming quarters.

"The problems facing commercial real estate are severe and will likely take many years to resolve," Deutsche Bank analyst Richard Parkus told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress this month. He said the biggest losses are likely to come from banks' $550 billion of construction loans, such as loans to homebuilders.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/24/news/economy/banks.commercial.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009072709

[Demeter]

41. No Pity. They Have Nobody But Themselves to Blame.

[Demeter]

7. I Call First Rec!

Good morning, Ozy and all you slackers out there.

We have had delightful weather--seventies and breezy, not too humid. The sun burns fiercely, in our Clean Air Act, de-industrialized Midwest, where neither particulate air pollution nor ozone layer shields us from the UV or any other solar radiation any longer, but in the shade it's perfect!

It will be a wild week for me, working all kinds of midnight hours starting Thursday. So I'll try to get some posting in early!

[Demeter]

9. Budget crisis stemmed; IOUs will get paid

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/california-passes-budget-ending-ious-2009-07-25?siteid=yahoomy

California doesn't need a secondary market for IOU s now

By Jennifer Waters, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The California Legislature ended an arduous marathon Friday by approving a state budget to close a $26.3 billion gap.

The move appeared to bring to an end an issuance of the IOUs the state had issued since the July 1 deadline passed without adoption of a budget that would allow the state to pay its bills.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to sign the budget package of some 30 bills on Monday.

The budget calls for $15 billion in cuts in services such as health care and education.

Legislators argued for weeks over myriad cuts and new ways of raising funds, including tapping the coffers of local municipalities and drilling for oil off the coast of Santa Barbara.

Ultimately the nation's largest state economy distributed upward of $1.03 billion in IOUs, officially called registered warrants, in lieu of cash. When banks stopped redeeming the IOUs, at least two firms offered secondary-market trading for the Golden Gate state's warrants.

SecondMarket, which runs second markets for hard-to-trade assets, launched an IOU market last week and Hartfield Titus & Donnelly LLC, a municipal securities brokerage firm, also prepared to trade the warrants.

But as legislation progressed, the secondary markets lost their appeal as sellers waited to see if the budget crisis would be solved.

On Friday, ahead of the legislative action, the secondary markets remained inactive.

[Demeter]

11. Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco: A Solution to Our Health Care Crisis

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gavin-newsom/a-solution-to-our-health_b_244057.html


Politicians and pundits on both sides of the aisle are trying to make national health care reform into a game. One senator even said that defeating health care reform is about "breaking" President Obama.

It is not about "breaking" our president. Reforming our national health care system is about fixing our economy by creating competition to lower health care costs and improve care.

Health care reform is about the estimated 47 million Americans that do not have health insurance. Nearly five million people have lost their insurance since September 2008. 14,000 more are losing coverage every day -- and the situation is only getting worse.

This is not a game. This is a crisis. And as the recession continues, it is a crisis with profound implications for every city and county in America.

Earlier this week, Governor Schwarzenegger balanced the California state budget on the backs of local governments, taking $4 billion from cities and counties, slashing $1.3 billion from the state's health care program for the poor and gutting millions more from the Healthy Families insurance program that provides coverage for children.

What is happening in California is not unique to our state. Mayors and city councils across the country are facing similar problems as state governments slash health coverage to balance their books.

Our emergency rooms will bear the brunt of these cuts, as patients will flood our hospitals when they can no longer see a doctor. Our residents will pay the price with higher taxes, more expensive premiums, hidden costs and increased fees. Our cities and towns will all have to pick up the tab.

This is a crisis. And our cities and towns are on the front lines.

That's why this afternoon I'm hosting a call with mayors from around the country asking them to introduce resolutions in their city councils to support the Administration's health care reform principles. Health care reform cannot wait.

In San Francisco, we decided to treat this crisis. Two years ago, we launched the country's first universal health care program, Healthy San Francisco. Today, almost 75% of previously uninsured residents are enrolled in our "public option" program. 44,249 people, at last count are now covered by our public plan.

Healthy San Francisco is saving lives, reducing costs and creating competition. Check out this first hand account of our public program at work. Watch this moving video of a woman who was unable to get coverage before she found out about Healthy San Francisco.

A public plan can work. San Francisco is proving it. We should not be scared by TV ads funded by insurance companies and brash statements from politicians. This is about the health of our country. This is a crisis, but there is a solution.

We do not have time to stand on the side lines. We can -- and must -- act now. Call your representative. Email them. Sign our petition and show your support for President Obama's plan to reform our national health care system. Tell them this is not a game. This is about our families, our friends and our neighbors.

[Demeter]

12. China's Growth Comes at Expense of U.S.

http://www.economyincrisis.org/articles/show/3176


A new report by United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission details the destruction that America’s so-called “free trade” with China is causing for the domestic economy.

According to the report, Chinese trade policies are undermining the American economy and draining the nation’s jobs, wealth, businesses and its standing as the world’s foremost economic powerhouse.

“China’s successful, fundamentally protectionist policies have changed U.S.-China trade patterns in dramatic and deeply troubling ways since China’s 2001 admission to the ,” Charles McMillion, president of MBG Information Services and author of the report writes. “The most productive sectors of U.S. industry have been broadly undermined by record trade losses with China and others, and unprecedented U.S. foreign borrowing and asset sales have undermined U.S. financial independence, accumulating massive future obligations, particularly with China.”

Since entering the WTO, China’s economy has grown at four times the rate of the U.S. economy. Over that same time, growth in the U.S. economy has remained lackluster, growing at a slower rate than the world economy. That should allow the U.S. to maintain a trade surplus, however, partially due to the mercantilist practices of the Chinese government, the U.S. has accumulated over $6 trillion worth of trade deficits over that time.

Since 2001, China has also managed to accumulate a $1.6 trillion surplus in manufactured goods. The U.S., on the other hand, has racked up a massive $2.9 trillion deficit in manufactured goods.

Of course, jobs follow money and since 2001 America has seen its manufacturing base decimated. Over that time, the textile industry has lost 63 percent of its jobs. Manufacturers of communications equipment have lost 47 percent of their jobs since 2001 and the motor vehicles and motor vehicles parts production industry has shed 43 percent of its workforce in the past eight years.

Since entering the WTO in 2001, trade with China has resulted in the loss of 2.3 million jobs through 2007, according to the Economic Policy Institute. In 2006 alone, the trade gap with China resulted in the loss of 366,000 American jobs. Those fortunate enough to retain their jobs witnessed their annual earnings decrease by roughly $1,400. American workers are put in direct competition with one another as more and more employers look to offshore production to nations with lower wage rates.


Those jobs losses have affected each and every sector of the economy for both white and blue-collar workers. Since 2001, the U.S. has lost 561,000 jobs in computer and electronic products, 153,000 in apparel and accessories, 139,000 in administrative support services and 128,000 in professional, scientific and technical services.

In all, those displaced workers lost an average of $8,146 annually - a total of $19.4 billion - as they moved into lower paying jobs.

Those job losses can be directly attributed to China’s rapidly growing trade surplus with the U.S., maintained by the systematic manipulation of the Chinese yuan. By purposely undervaluing their currency, China subsidized exports - some estimates put this subsidy at nearly 30 percent. This practice has allowed America’s trade deficit with China to balloon since China entered into the WTO. In 2001, when China joined the WTO, they held a small trade surplus of $84 billion with the U.S. By 2007, that number had grown exponentially to $262 billion. On average, that deficit will increase by $30 billion each and every year.

“Vigorous ‘protectionism’ is the very core of China’s public policies and of its remarkable recent success,” McMillion writes. “It is the reason China devalued its currency by 50 percent in January 1994, why it has so carefully managed its currency ever since and how it has amassed $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves since the Asian financial crisis of 1998. Protectionism is why China maintains strict government ownership of its banking and financial firms, even as they have gained access to world equity and bond markets.”

[InkAddict]

36. isn't it ironic...

w/Thanx to tj2001

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3987701&mesg_id=3987701


Mob beats Chinese steel factory executive to death
Thousands of workers had gathered in northeastern rust belt city of Tonghua to protest the takeover of their company and threatened layoffs.

Chinese state media confirmed Monday that a steel factory executive was beaten to death after thousands of workers gathered to protest the takeover of their company.

Chen Guojun, an executive at Jianlong Steel Holding Co., died Friday after an angry mob in the northeastern rust belt city of Tonghua beat him and then blocked ambulances from reaching him, according to the China Daily.

The protesters worked at the state-owned Tonghua Iron and Steel Group, which was going to be sold to Chen's privately owned Jianlong Steel. Chen sparked the riot by announcing 30,000 workers would be laid off, the newspaper said.

They dispersed later only after they were assured by authorities the sale would not go through.

[Demeter]

43. The French Model--We Have a Lot to Learn From Our Allies (?)

Vive la France!

[Demeter]

13. GSK adds to swine flu arsenal

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a10de6fc-76ee-11de-b23c-00144feabdc0.html

By Andrew Jack, Pharmaceuticals Correspondent, in London

Published: July 22 2009 19:49 | Last updated: July 22 2009 19:49

GlaxoSmithKline on Wednesday moved to become the pharmaceuticals company with the broadest range of products to tackle the swine flu pandemic, as it unveiled plans for the sale of masks and diagnostics to add to its fast-growing vaccines and antiviral medicines business.

The UK company signalled a strong upsurge in demand from governments for its vaccines and its antiviral drug Relenza as the infection spreads, with plans to sharply expand manufacturing capacity.

It also attempted to head off criticism that it was cashing in on the pandemic, stressing that it had invested $2bn to date in development and manufacturing, and had committed to donate 10 per cent of its Relenza supplies and more than 50m doses of flu vaccines to poor countries. GSK said it had received orders for 195m swine flu vaccine doses so far, and was in discussions with 50 governments, with deliveries set to begin in September.

Andrew Witty, chief executive, played down suggestions that GSK would have difficulty meeting demand for those governments that have already placed orders.

He said: “The governments know very well that the pace of order fulfilment will be driven by the performance of the virus . . . but over any given time period we do believe that we’re going to be able to meet the kind of demand that we’ve been receiving so far.”

For the three months ending in June, pre-tax profit rose 12 per cent to £2bn ($3.3bn) on revenues that increased 14 per cent to £6.7bn.

GSK has taken orders from 60 governments for Relenza, and is tripling its production capacity to 190m courses annually, lifting its sales for the quarter to £60m against £3m last time.

Relenza, which is inhaled, has struggled to complete with its rival Roche’s Tamiflu as the leading antiviral treatment, but has found a niche notably for pregnant woman at risk, since it enters the lungs rather than being absorbed by the blood, limiting the risk to the foetus.

Separately, GSK announced plans to commercialise Actiprotect, a face mask designed to protect against flu particles, on top of a deal agreed this week with Enigma, a British diagnostics group, for a product to identify flu viruses within an hour.

The diversification fits Mr Witty’s strategy to expand the business into emerging markets and beyond prescription medicines into consumer health.

[Demeter]

14. Microsoft’s sales tumble on PC weakness

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/677c3904-77c8-11de-9713-00144feabdc0.html

By Richard Waters in San Francisco

Published: July 23 2009 21:45 | Last updated: July 24 2009 14:59

Hopes that a rebound in the technology sector would help to fuel a broader recovery from the downturn suffered a setback on Thursday as Microsoft reported an unexpected slump in sales for its latest quarter.

The world’s biggest software company said revenues had declined 17 per cent amid falling global demand for new PCs and servers. The news follows a spate of more positive earnings news from Apple, Intel and IBM.

Microsoft also sounded a far more cautious note about the prospects for a recovery in the second half of 2009.

“It’s going to be difficult for the rest of the year,” said Chris Liddell, chief financial officer. “We’re really still not sure we’re out of the woods.”

While the software company had been expected to suffer more than other leading tech companies, given its heavier exposure to cyclically volatile PC and server sales, the extent of the decline was unexpected and its shares fell by nearly 8 per cent in after-market trading and were off by 10 per cent in early trading on Friday.

The setback in the fourth quarter of Microsoft’s fiscal year caps the worst year in its 23-year history as a public company, and the first in which it has seen a revenue decline.

Broader trends in the technology markets have also hurt the company. Netbooks, the small, low-cost laptops that have been the one bright spot this year, now account for 11 per cent of all PC sales, according to Microsoft.

However, it receives much less for the version of the Windows operating system shipped with these machines.

In spite of the latest signs of weakness, Microsoft’s shares are still up nearly 60 per cent since their low point in April on hopes that new product launches, including the Windows 7 operating system, will revive its fortunes next year.

Mr Liddell said that Microsoft was not anticipating any further big declines from current levels of spending by its customers, and sees “the potential for improvement” in 2010.

A 29 per cent plunge in revenues from Microsoft’s core Windows PC division, to $3.11bn, aggravated the decline in the latest quarter. Microsoft was also affected by an upgrade guarantee that allows PC buyers to switch to Windows 7 when it goes on sale in October.

Heavy cost-cutting made up for some of the shortfall, with Microsoft slicing 10 per cent from its operating expenses compared with a year before. But net income fell 29 per cent to $3.045bn, or 34 cents a share.

[ozymandius]

25. Microsoft today looks a lot like Xerox circa 1969.

John Dvorak has a long, reasoned review of Microsoft's behemoth-sized blunders.

Is the party over for Microsoft?

excerpt:

Let me restate it. Microsoft is a software company. It has been distracted too easily by the success of others in essentially unrelated fields. Here are but a few examples (and there are dozens more):

*Years ago in the pre-Internet era, AOL was the talk of the town, so Microsoft had to copy it with MSN. No money was made; no strategic advantage was gained.

*Netscape was the rage for a while, so Microsoft threw together a browser and got in that business. The browser was given away for free. No money was made; the strategy got the company in trouble with government trustbusters.

*During the early days of the Internet, new online publications appeared. Microsoft decided to become a publisher too, rolling out a slew of online properties including a computer magazine and a women's magazine. They were all folded.

*Computer books became popular; Microsoft began Microsoft Press. After an early splash and success, the company soon lost interest and the division now languishes.

[Demeter]

27. It's Greed and Envy And Overwhelming Sense of Grandiosity

Truly psychopathic.

[ozymandius]

15. Ritholtz on dumbass NAR reports

More NAR Nonsense

Remember back during the housing boom, when all of the corrupt real estate appraisers were busy pumping up local comparables, and helping to drive prices higher?

My thoughts came back to that this week, when I was catching up with some missed research and economic reports. I was traveling to and from Vancouver, so I missed the June Existing Home Sales data. In finally reading June’s EHS, I couldn’t help but notice this doozy in the 4th paragraph of the National Association of Realtors release:

“A June survey of NAR members shows 37 percent experienced at least one lost sale as a result of the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, with seven out of 10 reporting an increased use of out-of-area appraisers. Seventy percent of NAR appraiser members said consumers were paying higher fees, while 85 percent report a perceived reduction in appraisal quality.”

What contemptible bilge.

.....

NEVER FORGET THIS: The NAR is a trade group, not a legitimate source of independent data. They are biased, not credible, and to be blunt, essentiually behave as PR flacks who will say ANYTHING if they think it will help their members make a quick buck. They are not a credible economic organization, they are not legitimate researchers, they are nothing more than hired guns pushing their members’ agenda — even when it is destructive to America.

---

More links and source material at link above...

[ozymandius]

18. Five Firms Hold 80% of Derivatives Risk, Fitch Report Finds

Members of Congress probing threats to the global financial system — especially the threat of concentration of risk — will have a lot to ponder in newly mandated disclosures highlighted by a Fitch Ratings report issued last week. While derivatives use among U.S. companies is widespread, an "overwhelming majority of the exposure is concentrated among financial institutions," according to the rating agency's review of first-quarter financials.

Concentrated, in fact, among a mere handful of financial-services giants. About 80% of the derivative assets and liabilities carried on the balance sheets of 100 companies reviewed by Fitch were held by five banks: JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. Those five banks also account for more than 96% of the companies' exposure to credit derivatives.

.....

For the report, the rating agency reviewed first-quarter 2009 filings of the companies, which come from a range of industries and represent almost $6.4 trillion in aggregate outstanding debt. The companies also recorded a total notional amount of derivative positions of more than $296 trillion.

Unlike the financial firms, which both use derivatives and issue them for profit, nonfinancial companies seem mostly to use derivatives just to hedge specific risks, according to Fitch. While "derivatives trading by utilities and energy companies appear to be very limited," for instance, "most of the companies reviewed in both industries report the use of derivatives for hedging commodity risks," the report found.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/14113089/?f=rsspage

---

It is extremely interesting to see who is using derivatives, how much, how they are being used and who is not using them at all.

[Demeter]

26. Take Them Down

What cannot continue, will not continue. We willlive to see these pirates go down with their ship the CDO CDS SIV etc.

[FarCenter]

40. 80% of 1/3 of the derivatives?

I thought that total derivatives were close to $1000 trillion?

[Demeter]

47. Perhaps the Rest of the World is Stuck With the Balance

and this is just the US numbers?

There's a lot of statistics that float around and don't add up. Partly it's the lack of definition, partly the lack of transparency, and partly the lack of truthfulness. They don't talk about Shadow Banks and Black Holes for poetic effect.

Question EVERYTHING!

I think some of them got wiped out in the crash of the paper pile, and others when AIG paid off everybody with our tax money. But there's still a lot of toxic asset waste out there.

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. Looks like 50 of the blue-dogs

:donut: (cartoon reference)

[ozymandius]

21. I wish we would be so lucky.

The worthlessness of the Blue Dogs has never been so blazingly obvious than in the issues concerning healthcare and their staunch protection of insurance industry interests.

[ozymandius]

30. Upton Sinclair's prescient wit writ large -

Found at Calculated Risk:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

- Upton Sinclair, 1935

Herald Tribune: Lenders Ignored Mortgage Fraud Red Flags

from the article:

Fraudulent property flippers had an unlikely accomplice during the real estate boom -- the lending industry.

A yearlong Herald-Tribune investigation into thousands of suspicious Florida flip deals found that lenders of all kinds approved risky deals and ignored obvious red flags for mortgage fraud.

...

What makes the flipping fraud so egregious is not just that it happened, but that it would have been so easy to stop.

Using public records and Internet searches, the Herald-Tribune identified hundreds of deals that exhibited classic red flags for fraud. They include sales between family members and business partners in which prices increased $100,000 or more overnight. In other cases, flippers repeatedly traded properties from their company to their own name, each time increasing the price and the amount they borrowed.

If you are a regular here at the SMW, this would be old news. But it's worth repeating.

Link to the Herald Tribune page...

[snot]

32. Every day, there are SO MANY replies here that are SO

HELPFUL -- much moreso, for me, than most OP's elsewhere.

I'd try to call more DU'er's attn to this thread, except I fear it might be overrun.

HOWEVER, I really wish more of you would ALSO post more of your replies here as OP's in GD. (E.g., Hugin & Demeter, your Huffington and Maher replies yesterday made my day. But ALL of the regular SMW poster/replier's here routinely post informative and insightful replies.)

So thank you, and again, pls consider posting more of your replies here also as OP's in GD.

[DemReadingDU]

34. people in GD are very vocal

and not usually in agreement with SMW

I rarely venture in there.

[snot]

45. We can't influence for the better, if we only speak to those who already agree with us.

[TheWatcher]

72. *Pulls Out The Red Pen*

I think you meant "people in GD are terminally deluded."

There, much better.

Hope you're doing well, my friend.

:hug:

[Demeter]

49. We Run an IQ Test

The smart people come here. It's the only thing they have to do. Not a great barrier.

[UpInArms]

33. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.442 Change -0.415 (-0.53%)

Dollar Remains Under Pressure As Equities Continue To Rally, China-U.S. Talks Loom.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/daily1248689964942.html

The Pound started to give up earlier gains before resuming its upward momentum as comments from Chancellor Alistair Darling cast some doubt on a U.K. recovery. The Chancellor took to task banks for not making credit available for small businesses, saying that they needed to live up to promises made and that the government didn’t bail them out as an act of charity. The Britich Banker’s Association has come out in defense of itself stating that it has done as much as it can in the current environment. Meanwhile, Hometrack LLC reported that housing prices remained flat in July but improvement in other metrics added to signs that the sector is stabilizing.

The number of weeks that houses were on the market before selling dropped to nine weeks which was the lowest in a year. Additionally, sellers saw their bargaining power increase fro an eighth month as they were able to obtain 91.5% of their asking price. However, if businesses and consumers continue to find it difficult to obtain credit, the growth prospects for the country will be limited going forward. Mortgage approvals and Net credit lending will be released on Wednesday and should shed additional light on current lending conditions. Over the past week we have seen the trading range for the GBP/USD narrow between the 20-Day SMA and the upper Bollinger band, which today stand at 1.6365 and 1.6614 respectively. A breach of either barrier could lead to an extended breakout, but downside risks could be limited with the 50-Day SMA at 1.6282 providing formidable support.

The Euro has become choppy after its initial advance as the currency still remains supported by prevailing optimism. Markets are riding momentum despite the challenges that remain ahead for the regional and global economy. Eventually we could see traders come to reality leading to a sharp reverse in momentum. However, until then look for a re-test of 1.4340 the 6/3 high. Until we get a break of that level range bound price action should continue. Data out of Germany helped fuel added to bullish sentiment as the GFK consumer confidence reading rose for a third month to 3.5 from 2.9. Additionally, import prices rose for the first time since July 2008 by 0.4%, helping erase deflation concerns.

The dollar has remained under pressure throughout most of the overnight session as equity markets in Asia and Euro continue to add to their gains. A light economic calendar today could leave price action at the mercy of the broader themes. The Obama administration will start its first talks with China in Washington today which will include discussion about the Asian’s power massive holdings of U.S. federal bonds which could have implications for the dollar as the primary reserve currency. New home sales today could offer some event risk if we see additional evidence that the housing market is rebounding. The expected improvement to 355K from 342K could fuel prevailing risk appetite and weigh on the greenback. However, a U.S. economic recovery will eventually end the dollar’s correlation with risk, allowing positive fundamental data to become the driver of bullish sentiment. Therefore, look for signs following this week’s GDP figures and the upcoming NFP’s of a change in correlation, as it could change the risk on risk off strategy that is currently relevant and may lead to currency’s breaking from their current ranges. Also, watch for more earnings and a record $115 billion U.S. Treasury bond auction to impact dollar flows as well.

...more...

US Dollar on the Brink of a Trend Defining Plunge Ahead of 2Q GDP

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_on_the_Brink_1248486816199.html

It was a tenuous week; but the dollar was able to ultimately hold its own through the close. However, just because momentum behind the earnings-driven rally in risk appetite has stalled does not mean that the world’s most liquid currency has avoided a collapse all together. Sentiment winds have died down; but they can easily jostle the safe-haven dollar should another economic catalyst surface. This makes for an uncertain future when combined with the fundamental influence that the 2Q GDP report will have on the currency. Now, not only do traders have to interpret the data, they will also have to judge whether it has a greater impact on risk appetite or growth considerations for the beleaguered dollar.

Looking ahead to next week, the most immediate threat to the greenback’s stability is the intensity and direction of risk appetite. While this currency is deeply mired in speculation surrounding the economy’s leading or lagging growth potential, interest rate expectations, and deficit projections among other influences; risk appetite has proven itself to be insuperable. With the Federal Reserve vowing to keep the benchmark lending rate at levels that insure a carry status when conditions do turn around and politicians ensuring the economy will struggle with record levels of debt for years to come, there seems little doubt that the dollar will maintain its position on the opposite of risk appetite. But, considering the stalled progress most of the dollar and yen crosses saw last week; is there a strong shift in sentiment in the works? With EURUSD and GBPUSD just off of key levels of resistance, the pressure is growing. However, the primary source of momentum this past week – the second quarter earnings season – is already on the decline. If left up to the markets alone, equities have already forged new highs for the year; but commodities, fixed income and risk-sensitive currency pairs have not pushed to comparable levels. Oddly enough, one of the most likely catalysts for risk going forward also happens to be the most attention grabbing indicator on the US docket: GDP.

According to economists forecasts, the world’s largest economy contracted at a 1.5 percent on an annualized pace through the second quarter. This would be a marked improvement from the 5.5 percent and 6.3 percent rate of the recession through the first quarter of 2009 and fourth quarter 2008 respectively. This would certainly confirm policy officials expectations for a return to positive growth by the end of this year or beginning of the next; but through the near-term it is still a call for speculation to rank the economy’s performance against that of its major counterparts. China recently reported a sharp advance to a 7.9 percent pace of expansion while the UK printed a record 5.6 percent contraction. And, then there are still those economies that have yet to report their numbers. Japan suffered a record-breaking 14.2 percent slump through the first quarter, but is expected to snap back according to BoJ and Cabinet officials. The Euro Zone awaits it August 13th release, but the Bundesbank has already stated Germany saw only a ‘slight contraction’ through the second quarter. This will increasingly become a consideration of nuance.

The other facet of the US 2Q GDP release is that it will be accepted as a gauge of global growth. This further complicates the issue. Should the reading be good, the influence on risk appetite could outweigh the implications for US returns and actually drag the dollar down; and vice versa. Another important consideration is the timing of this release. Due Friday, speculators may decide to move the dollar before the data crosses the wires. If this is the case, the GDP report could factor into long-term projections but not short-term volatility.



...more...

[DemReadingDU]

35. The Great Lie of 2009

7/7/09 The Great Lie of 2009 by Martin Weiss

Just as the authorities were touting the “end of the financial crisis,” all heck has broken loose again …

We have a new surge in unemployment, and even without counting those who are excluded from the official numbers, 14.7 million are now jobless, the most since records dating back to 1948. Worse, for the first time since the Great Depression, every single job created after the prior recession has been wiped out.

We have industrial production falling at the same pace as it did in the early 1930s …. and global trade falling at twice the pace of the early 1930s.

We have California — the nation’s most populous state, with the largest GDP and the greatest impact on the entire U.S. economy — collapsing.

We have consumers slashing their spending, small businesses laying off their workers, cities and states forced to gut their budgets.

We see the most radical government countermeasures in a 100 years, the biggest federal deficits in 200 years, plus the swiftest swings — from greed to fear and fear to greed — ever.

Yet, for the past four months, virtually every policymaker in Washington and every pundit on Wall Street has been telling you …

The Great Lie of 2009:
“A Recovery Is Around The Corner”

more...
http://jutiagroup.com/2009/07/07/the-great-lie-of-2009/


Edit - I thought this was a good article, I previously posted it a couple weeks ago
:)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3955232&mesg_id=3955838

[Robbien]

52. In July of 1930 all the great minds of Wall Street

were pushing the exact same lie. Lots of talk about how they believe business will be picking up in the third quarter or at the latest the fourth quarter of 1930.

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/
Union Trust of Cleveland sees improving business sentiment, upturn starting soon.
Consensus that business will improve seasonally in fall
Administration members reported telling Wall Street that business has turned corner, and should curve slowly upward until winter


----


History, we are doomed to be repeating it.

[mullard12ax7]

60. The propaganda continues today with "the real estate downturn is over"!

The entire U.S. business culture is corrupt and will only be stopped by massive arrests such as seen in N.J. the other day.

[Demeter]

65. From your lips to god's ears!

[Po_d Mainiac]

37. Courtesy of Zerohedge

The compilation of charts in this article are well worth viewing. Although much of the data has been previously discussed here, this is the first that self has seen it all in one tidy (for lack of a better term) package

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20End%20Of%20The%20End%20Of%20The%20Recession_0.pdf

[Demeter]

56. Sorry, this Link Doesn't Work

[DemReadingDU]

67. try this link

http://www.scribd.com/doc/17712435/The-End-of-the-End-of-the-Recession

edit...
72 pages, lots of charts and graphs

[DemReadingDU]

38. Renegade Economist US Special with Dr. Michael Hudson

7/25/09 The Renegade Economist goes to New York to hear Dr. Michael Hudson’s views on the state of the US Economy.

appx 10 minute video
http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2009/07/25/renegade-economist-us-special-with-dr-michael-hudson/

[Festivito]

42. Debt: 07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 (UP 10,025,291,002.08) (Debt up.)

(Debt moved up, FICA side went down a very small amount.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,264,963,795,966.75 + 4,340,557,283,875.38
UP 10,040,233,982.08 + DOWN 14,942,980.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,933,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,811.19.
A family of three owes $113,433.56. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,589,013,856.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,584,910,623.04.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 127 reports in 184 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.20B$ per report, -0.04B$/day so far.
There were 202 reports in 296 days of FY2009 averaging 7.83B$ per report, 5.34B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,277 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/23/2009 11,605,521,079,842.13 BHO (UP 978,644,030,929.05 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,580,796,182,929.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********

125,155,762,804.20 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,940,889,276,583.06 in last 308 days.
That's 1,941B$ in 308 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 191% of that highest year ever only in 308 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 308 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3982249&mesg_id=3987290

[Festivito]

71. Debt: 07/24/2009 11,606,528,598,129.77 (UP 1,007,518,287.64) (Debt down, FICA up.)

(Debt goes down, while FICA side goes up.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,264,839,437,750.68 + 4,341,689,160,379.09
DOWN 124,358,216.07 + UP 1,131,876,503.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,940,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,813.58.
A family of three owes $113,440.74. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 10,472,854,707.54.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,029,188,609.11.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 128 reports in 185 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.24B$ per report, -0.05B$/day so far.
There were 203 reports in 297 days of FY2009 averaging 7.79B$ per report, 5.33B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,276 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 21.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/24/2009 11,606,528,598,129.77 BHO (UP 979,651,549,216.69 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,581,803,701,217.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---

125,048,545,307.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,941,896,794,870.70 in last 309 days.
That's 1,942B$ in 309 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 191% of that highest year ever only in 309 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 309 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3987849&mesg_id=3988025

[KoKo]

44. A Must Watch for SMW'ers....Dr. Thomas Palley's incredible presentation on our financial implosion

The best explanation of this mess I've yet seen and his "power point charts" and explanations going step by step are incredible. If only this could be seen by more people who have attention spans past sound bytes from the MSM we could maybe get the reforms the country so desperately needs. I just found it last night over at "Economic Populist" site so excuse if it's already been posted.
On Edit: Kudo's to the New America Foundation for having his presentation.
---------

"America's Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa8ksiqr1Rw

Does America have a flawed pattern of growth?

For over two decades, growth has depended on asset bubbles and rising indebtedness. Business cycle recoveries have been marked by jobless recoveries and stagnant wages for most Americans.

The only way to escape this defective pattern, argues Thomas Palley, is to correct the problems in the macro economy. Join Dr. Palley to discuss these issues and his new paper, "America's Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession."

[DemReadingDU]

69. bookmarking to watch later, thanks

[KoKo]

70. Thanks..it's worth the watch when you have the time. It's a bit long but worth the length! n/t

[FarCenter]

50. Guaranty Financial 8K - "probable that it will not be able to continue as a going concern"

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1406081/000140608109000009/gfg8k07232009.htm

As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed on June 29, 2009, Guaranty Financial Group Inc. (the “Company”) has been working on a plan to raise substantial capital for it and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guaranty Bank (the “Bank”) through an open bank assistance transaction with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (“OTS”) and with private investors, including the Company’s current principal stockholders. On July 17, 2009, at the direction of OTS, the Bank filed an amended Thrift Financial Report (“TFR”) as of and for the three months ended March 31, 2009. This filing reflected substantial asset write downs as described below, which resulted in the Bank having negative capital reflected in the TFR as of that date.

The Company believes that these write downs foreclosed the possibility of applying for open bank assistance. Our primary stockholders have not affirmed their willingness to commit to a capital infusion in support of such an application. As a result, the Company no longer believes that it will be possible for the Company or the Bank to raise sufficient capital to comply with the Orders to Cease and Desist described in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 8, 2009. In light of these developments, the Company believes that it is probable that it will not be able to continue as a going concern.

The Company continues to cooperate with the OTS and the FDIC as they pursue potential alternatives for the business of the Bank. Any such transaction would not be expected to result in the receipt of any proceeds by the stockholders of the Company.

In connection with this process, the OTS has directed that the Board of Directors of the Bank consent to the OTS exercising its statutory authority to appoint the FDIC as receiver or conservator for the Bank. If the FDIC is so appointed, the FDIC, rather than the Board, would control the operations of the Bank. The Board has complied with the OTS demand for such consent, but the appointment of a receiver or conservator has not yet occurred. In the meantime the Board continues to function, but the OTS is exercising a significant degree of control over what had heretofore been the functions of the Board.

<SNIP>

---

Subsidiary Guaranty Bank of Austin Texas is the second largest headquartered in Texas. $14 Billion in assets.

See also http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/072409dnbusguaranty.3bfc4f2.html

"While Guaranty is technically based in Austin, its top executives work in Dallas. The bank has about 160 branches in Texas and California."

"Guaranty was spun off from Temple-Inland Co. of Austin in late 2007, a move sought by Temple-Inland shareholder and New York billionaire Carl Icahn."

[Robbien]

53. Goldman's view of the public

"If we can push the envelope without D.C. punishing us, we don't care about our Main Street reputation."

http://dealbreaker.com/2009/07/masters-of-the-universe-dont-g.php


Blankfein in particular is said to be dismissive of the firm's critics. According to a person close to him, the CEO believes Goldman's internal problems will disappear once compensation comes back. In other words, money will solve everything.

[Robbien]

59. UPS 2nd-Qtr. Earnings Fall 49%

Second-quarter net income at UPS Inc. fell 49%, compared with a year earlier, but all three main divisions remained profitable despite the ongoing recession and a 16.7% decline in global revenue.

UPS, Atlanta, the largest company on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of for-hire carriers, said July 23 it earned $445 million, or 44 cents a share, on quarterly revenue of $10.83 billion. During the same three months last year, it earned $873 million, or 85 cents a share, on revenue of $13 billion.

Chairman and CEO Scott Davis and Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said during a July 23 conference call that while business is worse than a year ago, contraction appears to have stopped.

However, there is also no evidence of growth yet.

“Whether we’ve hit bottom is not the main issue now,” Davis said. “The question is: How long do we remain here, and what sort of recovery will we have?”

Davis told a stock analyst he disagreed with the assumption that the current poor environment is “the new normal,” and he predicted that the economy — and UPS volumes — will resume growth. For the present, though, Davis said his managers will proceed with the assumption that the economy will remain as is until “there are definitive signs of improvement.”

http://www.ttnews.com/articles/basetemplate.aspx?storyid=22404

[mrdmk]

61. SEC rule on 'naked' short-selling now permanent

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal regulators on Monday made permanent an emergency rule aimed at reducing abusive short-selling, put in at the height of last fall's market turmoil.

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced that it took the action on the rule targeting so-called "naked" short-selling, which was due to expire Friday.

Short-sellers bet against a stock. They generally borrow a company's shares, sell them, and then buy them when the stock falls and return them to the lender -- pocketing the difference in price.

"Naked" short-selling occurs when sellers don't even borrow the shares before selling them, and then look to cover positions sometime after the sale.

More at Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SEC-rule-on-naked-apf-3523034809.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

And this will be use if and when the good regulation people of the government decide to use it...

[Demeter]

66. Good! Then they can make CDS Illegal, Next.

and reinstate Glass-Steagal. And Universal Health Coverage and Check off union-voting.

And if that isn't enough, bring out the FRSP.

[mbperrin]

68. Can we, please?

Please?