H1N1 unlikely to mutate into 'superbug': U.S. study

[Emit]

Source: Reuters

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The new H1N1 virus appears to outcompete seasonal flu, making it less likely to mix with other circulating flu viruses into a "superbug" as some had feared, U.S. researchers said on Tuesday.

The H1N1, or swine flu, virus also spreads more quickly and causes more severe disease in animal studies, the team said, but it shows no signs of mixing with either of the two seasonal flu viruses to form a new, so-called reassortant virus.

"The results suggest that 2009 H1N1 influenza may outcompete seasonal flu virus strains and may be more communicable as well," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.

~snip~

"The H1N1 pandemic virus has a clear biological advantage over the two main seasonal flu strains and all the makings of a virus fully adapted to humans," Daniel Perez of the University of Maryland said in a statement. "I'm not surprised to find that the pandemic virus is more infectious, simply because it's new, so hosts haven't had a chance to build immunity yet. Meanwhile, the older strains encounter resistance from hosts' immunity to them," Perez said.

~snip~

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090901/ts_nm/us_flu_superbug

[endless october]

1. a strain would have to appear that causes cytokine storms.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm

so far it's unclear whether the common variants of this bug cause that localized immune overreaction.

[dipsydoodle]

2. Indeed -

and yet do know there are those advertising boosting the immune system to help avoid catching this flu.

[endless october]

3. there are all kinds of advertisers swarming around this bug.

including a lot of people on the net dedicated to making the vaccine look much more dangerous than it is.

i'm happy about the increased awareness. i'm not happy about the parasites that follow the increased awareness.

[dipsydoodle]

4. Yes - parasites

that's an apt description.

[percussivemadness]

5. now there`s a surprise....

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

6. Good to hear.

[TiredOldMan]

7. I'm sure we're all hoping they're right.

[SheilaT]

8. What? We're not all going to die?

But, but, but, they all said that this was going to be at least as bad as the 1918 flu!

What makes me so crazy about the constant drum beating that "this is the year we're going to have a flu epidemic to rival 1918" which I've been hearing for about the last ten years straight, is that no one seems capable of really looking at how different may conditions are between today and 90 years ago. Sheesh.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

9. Of course you have a link to someone saying that 100 million people were going to die from this flu.

[SheilaT]

11. For some months now this

flu has been hyped over and over again as being potentially as bad as the 1918 flu. No, I don't have a specific link at my fingertips claiming 100 million deaths, but the connection was made constantly. As it is pretty much every flu season.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

14. Historic comparisons are important in pandemic modeling.

Every educated person that I have read has included the fact that modern medicine (anti-viral drugs, CPAP, ventilators, etc.) would dramatically reduce the numbers of deaths in 1st world countries. The connection to the 1918 flu is that is is the same Influenza A H1N1 strain, that is an important fact as that specific virus historically has been quite virulent and quite lethal. That is not a fact that should be dismissed by public health experts simply because the public might get their panties in a wad.

David

[SheilaT]

15. I do know that the swine flu

is of the same type A flu that occurred in 1918. But all of the modeling that's done seems to overlook quite thoroughly the differences (such as hand washing, no young soldiers crowded together in less than sanitary barracks and then shipped off to Europe)between now and then, but simply make straight-line projections about assumed similar levels of virulence and lethality.

It seems to me as though what we're getting is a constant yelling of fire in a crowded theater, or its equivalent here. I also keep on saying that if or when a terrible epidemic occurs it will come from no place anyone is looking at, and will manifest itself in some way no one expects.

Something as straight-forward as flu can be protected against in very many ways these days, and since its incubation period is relatively swift, it's somewhat easy to quarantine people or shut down schools, etc. I often wonder about some deadly disease with a very long incubation period, perhaps months, but that infects and maybe kills nearly everyone it reaches. Now THAT's the nightmare plague.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

16. The estimates have been between 30,000 and 90,000, do you think those are straight line projections

Between 500,000 and 675,000 died from the Spanish Flu between 1918 and 1920, it seems the experts took all the factors into account when making the projections. As to the media's interpretation and coverage of the conclusions and the advice of the scientists we are all well aware of their inability to interpret even the simplest data much less any detailed scientific report.

[SheilaT]

17. That's the most recent projection, which is

down considerably from the scary stuff being put out there several months ago. But even those numbers sound high given how remarkably unlethal this flu is turning out to be.

My point is that year after year we get inundated with the claim that we're overdue for a major flu epidemic just like in 1918 and then frightening projections are made about possible deaths as if things really would be just the same this time around. It's becoming the classic case of the boy who cried wolf. It happened several years ago with SARS, and before (or was it after, I apologize for not being clear on the time line)it was the avian flu. Over and over again we get bombarded with overblown stories about the latest killer disease that's going to kill lots and lots of people. Yes, it's the media's fault to a large extent, and a lot of people who ought to be able to read the articles more critically simply don't. But I'm quite tired of the breathless and needless panic that's out there all the time.

[midnight]

10. This sounds like good news. The WHO says pandemic only moderate.

The WHO has declared a “phase six” pandemic in response to the rapid spread of the 2009-H1N1 virus, indicating community level outbreaks in two or more different regions of the world. However, most individuals infected with 2009-H1N1 influenza fully recover, and the WHO considers the overall severity of the pandemic to be only moderate. http://travel.state.gov/travel/tips/health/health_1181.html

[JCMach1]

12. More pointless speculation...

All of these articles should be filed in the trash...

[eridani]

13. Under the most carefully controlled conditions of temperature, pressure, osmolarity and pH--

--the organism will do what it damned well pleases. Statistically, that is usually not a superbug, but it's hard to know for sure.