STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 2

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday September 2, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 1, 2009

Dow... 9,310.60 -185.68 (-1.96%)
Nasdaq... 1,968.89 -40.17 (-2.00%)
S&P 500... 998.04 -22.58 (-2.21%)
Gold future... 956.50 +3.00 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.36 -0.04 (-1.15%)
30-Year Bond 4.19 +0.01 (+0.29%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Stocks - Recording Another Low...(?)
BY FRANK BARBERA

Yes, we know, could the title of today’s article be any more provocative? Surely we have lost sight of the fact that stocks have already enjoyed a huge advance with the S&P up nearly 56% from the March lows at the recent high near 1040. Surely, we recognize the huge swing to bullishness that has taken place within the recent sentiment polls, a development that always suggests the imminent death of a major rally. Or does it? As many in the babbling media and cacophony of CNBC would like to have you believe, the swing to excess bullish sentiment is NOT an instant death sentence for equities. On Wall Street, any number of technical analysts have also been pounding away on the “excessive bulls” theme. However, we see a lot of these warnings as overdone, and potentially way early.

But let’s start by looking at the numbers that have everyone in a big tizzy, the Investors Intelligence Survey results where the latest poll showed 51.60% Bulls and 19.80% Bears. On this there were two notes of potential discord. The first off is the percentage of Bears dropping down below 20%. This may have an especially extra ominous tone to it, as one can look at the chart below and realize that the last time the Investors Intelligence Survey had a % of Bears Weekly figure below +20%, was way back on October 19th, 2007, virtually the exact week of the all time high.

-see chart-

Yet, prior to 2007, other very ‘low’ readings were seen on dates including September 26, 2003, December 22, 2006, December 30, 2005, June 24, 2005, December 31, 2004 and the resulting market action was mild. On a few occasions the market did set back and spent some time consolidating or correcting in mild fashion, but between 2004 and 2007, most of the sub-+20% Bear values were really caution signals, signs that the rally was stopping to pause rather than a sign that the rally was coming to an end. Another ‘fear factor’ number said to be present in this data is the high values of the Percentage of Bulls Plus Percentage of those in the Correction camp. That figure totaled 80.20% in the latest result survey, and sure enough is the highest value seen since October 2007. In the chart below, we show the 80% level with the dashed horizontal line. That said, here again we see that from 2003 to 2007 there were a number of readings over 80%, and while some of the readings did attend market readings that were close to important peaks, a number of them proved to be early and weeks ahead of market highs.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

17. Wednesday Outlook: Strong Volume Sell-Off

You could feel it coming. The other day my image du jour was “running on empty” and that was the ominous warning we were sensing. Most trading systems don’t have a “feel” component and mine doesn’t either. The only logical thing which we’ve commented on repeatedly as have others is light volume and how the news hasn’t jived with reality. And, recently, investors have been selling good news versus buying bad news as before. Today good ISM and housing data failed to impress as the short sellers seized the tape. September is supposed to be the cruelest month but it’s never a sure thing.

Today (Tuesday), hedge fund leaders Paul Tudor Jones and others jumped on the short side questioning the validity and viability of the current rally as reported well in this Bloomberg story. They’ve thrown down the gauntlet to Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to prove that the economic recovery and market rally are for real. We’ll see who’s right ultimately but today they had the tape finding a lot of stops to hit. It was definitely their plan and was successfully orchestrated.

Volume increased substantially as stops were deliberately targeted and hit. The signature of this market has been (apart from Fed and options expiration days) heavier volume on down days than on up days which is a negative. Breadth was decidedly negative but not quite a 10/90 down day.

--- Lots of interesting sectorial charts follow ---

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/159474-wednesday-outlook-strong-volume-sell-off

[Ghost Dog]

31. The Bloomberg story referred to:

Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=auGWGWlnohNo

[Demeter]

40. Ski Jump Recession

Who would expect sheer poetry in the Markets? And such a visual description!

Look out below!

[Ghost Dog]

48. It's a compelling visual image, isn't it.

I told you August hols can help some of these people clear their heads... The ones that aren't mainlining coke the whole time, that is.

:smoke:

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change
Briefing.com -255K
Consensus -246K
Prior -371K

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q2
Briefing.com 6.4%
Consensus 6.4%
Prior 6.4%

10:00 Factory Orders Jul
Briefing.com 1.7%
Consensus 2.2%
Prior 0.4%

10:30 Crude Inventories 08/28
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior +128K

14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug. 12

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

29. the A(lways)D(elivering)P(oop) reports employment down 298,000

U.S. Aug. ADP employment down 298,000
8:15am Today

[Ghost Dog]

34. Nation at its most productive in 6 years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- U.S. non-farm productivity was stronger than initially thought in the second quarter as companies slashed costs to protect profits, data showed on Wednesday.

The Labor Department said non-farm productivity rose at a 6.6% annual rate, rather than the 6.4% pace it reported last month. That was the biggest increase since the third quarter of 2003.

...

Despite the increased productivity, output fell at a 1.5% rate in the second quarter, the department said, unchanged from its previous estimate, as over 6 million jobs have been cut since the recession began in December 2007. Output, measured on a year-on-year basis, was 5.5% lower.

Compared with the same quarter last year, non-farm productivity was up 1.9%.

Hours worked fell at a 7.6% rate in the April-June period from the first quarter, unchanged from last month's estimates. Unit labor costs, a gauge of inflation and profit pressures closely watched by the Federal Reserve, fell 5.9%, the biggest decline in nine years.

Analysts had expected unit labor costs to fall 5.8% in the second quarter. Unit labor costs dropped 5% in the January-March quarter. Unit labor costs fell 1.2% year-on-year.

Compensation per hour rose at a 0.3% pace rather than 0.2% as reported last month and, adjusted for inflation, was down 1% instead of a 1.1% decline. Compensation from a year ago rose 0.7% and was up 1.6% once adjusted for inflation.

/.. http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/02/news/economy/nonfarm_productivity.reut/index.htm

¡Hugh! news, except for real working people, then.

[FarCenter]

49. It just means that payroll is falling faster than revenues

[Ghost Dog]

51. 'Xactly.

... and, when you look at the books, you often find a lot of those 'revenues' come from shenanigans in the bubble-market.

[FarCenter]

53. Most companies can eliminate up to 20% of employees without impacting business very much

10% of employees are poor performers who don't contribute materially to the business.

Another 10% are working in marginal lines of business that don't contribute much.

[BelgianMadCow]

66. "shenanigans in the bubble market"

no kidding.

We here have saved and then sold our biggest bank (Fortis) to BNP Paribas quick, dirty and cheap.
Now BNP Paribas reported nice earnings, "coming in large part from Fortis".
Aaand, they will have record bonuses. Not the CEO etc... oh no, the traders, since that's where the niiice profits were generated. Crash the market. Pickup pieces. Talk market up. Cash in. Shock doctrine woohoo.

I don't know how many ways you can be royally f*****.

[Ghost Dog]

67. Yup. (Steely-grey-eyed, cleaning his gun)

Ain't that the truth, brother.

[MARALE]

56. Yes, this is great!

I have my salary froze until who knows when, my brother's hours got cut in half but he is expected to do the same work. and we are told to be happy we have jobs. "sigh" Nobody I know has a lot of money, recovery is going to be slow and I think the companies will look at these productivity numbers and say, hey this is what we should keep doing without realizing it is really hurting their workers.

[Ghost Dog]

39. July factory orders rise less-than-expected 1.3%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. and foreign businesses stepped up their demand for capital equipment to expand production in July, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Factory orders increased 1.3% in July, slightly slower than the 2.0% rise expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. This is the fourth straight monthly increase. Orders for durable goods increased 5.1% in July, revised up from 4.9% estimated a week ago. However, orders for nondurable goods fell 1.9%, the sharpest decline since last December. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, known as "core" orders, fell 0.3% in July after rising 3.8% in June, the government said.

/. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/july-factory-orders-rise-less-than-expected-13-2009-09-02

...And some people ask why the "Long War" must continue in eg. Afganistan...

Note to Stenos: The "slightly slower" quoted above is actually on the order of 30% slower than predicted. Very slight, indeed.

:shrug:

[Demeter]

41. There are cheaper, and more productive ways to reach full employment

and lord knows, we could used some investment at home.

[Ghost Dog]

57. FOMC: Slow recovery, low inflation, rates to stay low for long time

* No surprises at first glance
* No need to expand or cut asset purchases
* downturn ending, growth seen in second half
* subdued, maybe falling ,wage and price pressures pressures in next few years
* Consumer spending leveling out
* labor markets remain a concern
* households propensity to save a source of uncertainty
* Some on committee concerned about more credit losses ahead

Veiled deflation concerns and fears of more big are helping increase risk aversion a touch in the wake of the report. Inflation is a dead issue for the foreseeable future as far as the Fed is concened. They’ll leave that to the gold bugs to fret about…EUR/USD trades at 1.4267, USD/JPY at 92.27.

/. http://www.forexlive.com/48128/all/fomc-slow-recovery-low-inflation-rates-to-stay-low-for-long-time

[Ghost Dog]

68. Downturn in US economy 'ending'

US Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly confident the downturn in the US economy is ending, minutes from their latest meeting show.

The assessment by recently re-appointed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues struck a more upbeat tone than the last assessment in late June.

But there was uncertainty about how quickly the economy would grow in 2010.

Unemployment, which is set to move above 10% this year, may impact on consumer behaviour, they warned.

Falling property and share values, along with the difficulty in getting credit also meant that consumers still faced "considerable headwinds", they added.

'More upbeat'

However the Fed said that consumer spending appeared to be levelling out and that the housing market was becoming more solid, while manufacturing was stabilising.

The prospects for US exporters will also brighten, as the economies of other countries improved, the policymakers added.

These factors led them to believe that "the downturn in economic activity was ending", the minutes said.

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8235069.stm

(Posting better late than never...)

Edit to add video/musical comment from the Beatles (ca. 1964): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXh4EuJa2TU ¡Help!

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers above $68 as US crude inventories drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $68 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a two-day plunge as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be recovering.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 24 cents to $68.29 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday lost $1.91 to settle at $68.05.

.....

Investors were cheered somewhat when the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories plunged 3.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected the API numbers to drop 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 0.65 cents to $1.79 a gallon and heating oil gained 0.84 cent to $1.77 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 1.7 cents to $2.84 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

13. Oil speculators on the run

....

Some people think Wall Street's increased interest in energy trading and the steadily rising price of gas is no coincidence.

....

"Using an essential commodity as (an investment tool) is crazy," said Judy Dugan, research director at Consumer Watchdog. "If you want a double dip recession, let's just get $100 oil again."

Dugan is part of a growing chorus of people calling for greater government oversight of the commodities markets, where oil contracts are traded. The government agency that regulates those markets, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is starting to listen.

Last month the agency held hearings on things it could do to restrict speculator activity. Those include setting stricter limits on the amount of contracts people are allowed to trade, increasing the amount of their own money they have to put up to buy the contracts, or simply better reporting on who is buying what. More hearings on the matter are set for Wednesday and Thursday.

The fact that the CFTC is even considering changing the rules is a big departure from its stance under the Bush Administration. Last year the CFTC was adamant that speculators were not driving up the price of oil, with its then-director testifying as much before Congress several times. Now, under President Obama, the agency has a new head and that position may change.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/02/markets/oil_speculation/index.htm?postversion=2009090204

[Dr.Phool]

21. Greed has no conscience.

They could give a shit less if oil hits $200, and the entire economy tanks, as long as they get their bonuses.

[ozymandius]

18. Deutsche Bank scraps crude oil notes

Deutsche Bank is scrapping a product that lets investors bet on oil prices, making it the first exchange-traded commodity product to go under as Wall Street braces for a potential regulatory crackdown on energy speculation.

The bank said it would redeem all of its PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long exchange-traded notes, which use leverage to double returns from price moves in crude oil. As of yesterday, there were $425m of such notes.

This will effectively buy out existing investors before Deutsche does away with the product. The move could set a precedent for other investment managers.

"It's ominous," said Matt Hougan, director of exchange-traded fund analysis at IndexUniverse.com. "It's the first shoe to drop, and won't be the last."

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is contemplating placing speculative caps on energy futures trading, and its chairman has questioned the current system of limits run by exchanges.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4567b900-9759-11de-83c5-00144feabdc0.html

[ozymandius]

4. Productivity, factory orders seen on the rise

On Wednesday, government data is expected to show that orders to U.S. factories likely posted another increase in July, providing further evidence that the U.S. economy is on the mend. Factory orders likely rose 2.2 percent in July after a 0.4 percent gain in June, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

The government also will revise its estimates on durable goods in Wednesday's report and include a look at orders for nondurable goods, items such as energy products, food and chemicals.

And the Labor Department is slated to release its revised estimate for productivity and a revised figure for unit labor costs.

Productivity, the amount of output per hour of work, is expected to have surged to an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the April-June quarter, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. That would be the biggest quarterly increase in almost six years and represent no change from the government's initial estimate. Labor costs also are expected to have fallen at an annual rate of 5.8 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090902/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

[Demeter]

5. Morning Ozy!

Guess today must be Wednesday....Love that cartoon!

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Mid-week is a blessing. My in-laws arrive today from sunny, smoky California. I will spend one day out of school while they're in town.

I hope your garage is weathered-in.

:hi:

[Demeter]

9. It Is!

Now I just have to clear out all the splinters and leftover nails....

[ozymandius]

6. Worries about banks drag stock market lower

NEW YORK – A stock market ripe for a big pullback succumbed Tuesday, plunging when rumors of a bank failure revived investors' anxiety about the banking industry and the economy as a whole.

A batch of economic reports that just weren't good enough added to the mix as the major indexes all fell about 2 percent and the Dow Jones industrials slid 185 points. Treasury prices, usually the beneficiary of a slide in stocks, ended only moderately higher.

A break in the market's six-month rally was widely expected after investors showed a growing inclination to sell for some time. While the major indexes finished August with respectable gains, including a 3.4 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500, trading was erratic and the advances had a half-hearted feeling. Analysts warned that investors were doubting whether they should have bid stocks so high in the rally that began in early March.

.....

Banks and insurance companies were among the most notable losers amid the fears of bank failures, but they also had been pumped up the most in the rally that lifted the market more than 50 percent since hitting 12-year lows in March. With the government reporting last week that 400 banks were in trouble during the second quarter, investors' anxiety about the health of the financial industry was heightened and so rumors that investors might shrug off in less fractious times became powerful enough to cause sustained losses.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090901/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street

[ozymandius]

8. American to cut 921 flight attendants' jobs

DALLAS – American Airlines is cutting 921 flight attendant jobs as it deals with an ongoing downturn in traffic and lower revenue.

The airline said Tuesday that the cuts will take effect Oct. 1 and reduce its flight-attendant ranks by about 6 percent.

American, the nation's second-largest airline, said 228 employees will be furloughed — laid off but with rehiring rights — and the company will put 244 more on leave for two months. Another 449 will take voluntary options such as leave.

Nearly half of the flight attendants to be furloughed are based at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090901/ap_on_bi_ge/us_american_airlines_layoffs

[fasttense]

16. At least 921 more people who wont be flying. Whittling down their market

by laying off workers, brilliant.;-)

[Dr.Phool]

24. If flying wasn't such a pain in the ass anymore,

More people might be flying. It's gotten to be such a degrading experience, I don't want to fly commercial again. I probably would have taken a couple of trips this summer, but I just didn't want the hassle.

[kickysnana]

38. Eerie, Nobody manning the front desk at a major hospital Monday.

Nobody at the lobby desk, no guard, nobody at the volunteer station at 4pm yesterday. I called the nursing station at 9am to see if my Dad was being discharged yesterday and requested a call back when the doctor had been in because 1) Dad could not hear the telephone ring in his room and 2) He was a bit distracted by the failed angioplasty on his heart and would probably forget to call until he was packed and sitting on the edge of the bed. My sister who was helping someone move yesterday called in with the same request at 1:30 pm. Nobody called back. They lost his shaving kit the day before when they whisked him away and hour earlier than he was scheduled to go for the procedure yesterday. We were told it would be better to call to ask someone to look for it today before 4 as they did not have enough people to be looking for lost belongings on shift at either nursing station.

FYI Prognosis is not great. The surgeon says at almost 84 he is not a good candidate for bypass and when we asked if we should try to fight for him to get it Dad was definite that he did not want to go through a second bypass surgery. Either collateral arteries will take over for this one or he will have a heart attack and damage in that area (probably not immediately fatal). In the meantime he will be in much pain. He had a great summer, golfing, bowling, table tennis, VFW, extended family doings, class reunion (now down to 4). but being "grounded" for whatever time he has left will be hard for him.

[Demeter]

42. Our Thoughts Go Out to You and Your Family

I think most of us are in your shoes, sweating out a parent's declining days. My sister is set to kidnap Dad and drag him out of his house since he really can't cope any more...stroke is a terrible trauma.

It's said one should send a family member or hired nurse with anyone going to hospital these days--no staff anywhere anymore.

[Hugin]

43. I'm sorry to hear that, kickysnana.

About your Dad. :(

[Ghost Dog]

50. Can feel for you, kickysnana. Have been through that (x4).

I can recommend that avoiding telephones, rather, making respectful person-to-person face-to-face contact with those stressed workers at the hospital can be helpful to all concerned.

For those in jurisdictions where this applies: a well-considered "living will" can be a powerful tool in the face of sometimes blind institutions.

:hug:

[ozymandius]

10. Buyout Firms Return to Basics as Silver Lake Acquires Skype

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Silver Lake’s agreement yesterday to buy a majority stake in EBay’s Inc. Skype unit for $2 billion shows how much private-equity firms have been forced to scale back their ambitions.

.....

Private-equity investors are doing business more like they did before the market exploded, said Paul Schaye, managing director of New York-based Chestnut Hill Partners. They’re targeting divisions of larger corporations, in deals known as carve-outs, and smaller companies they may have passed over at the peak of the buyout frenzy. They’re paying a higher percentage of cash to sellers eager to unload businesses that are unprofitable or no longer suit their needs.

“You’re seeing private equity go back to its roots with carve-outs,” said Schaye, whose company helps buyout firms find deals. “There are things that have pain and need to be fixed. There are other cases where there are pieces that just need to be picked up.”

.....

Financial firms worldwide have posted losses of $1.6 trillion since the credit markets seized, with some tied to leveraged loans used to fund takeovers the banks couldn’t sell to investors. That’s made them skittish about taking on more commitments.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLnzQ.XCSK9U

[ozymandius]

11. Oldest Swiss Bank Tells Clients to Sell U.S. Assets or Leave

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wegelin & Co., Switzerland’s oldest bank, is telling wealthy clients to sell their U.S. assets, or switch banks, because of concerns new rules will saddle investors with tax obligations in the world’s biggest economy.

U.S. proposals to extend reporting requirements for banks whose clients buy American stocks and bonds coupled with estate tax liabilities that may be inherited by the heirs of people who have such holdings prompted the advice from the St. Gallen, Switzerland-based bank, said Managing Partner Konrad Hummler.

“We came to the conclusion that it’s a threat to our clients,” Hummler, who is also president of the Swiss Private Bankers Association, said in an interview yesterday in Zurich. “It’s also a threat to us as a bank because as a custodian we are an executor to the estate. We find this aspect discomforting, so we recommend selling all American securities whatsoever.”

.....

The U.S. has proposed increasing reporting and oversight requirements for so-called qualified intermediaries -- foreign banks that withhold taxes on behalf of the Internal Revenue Service. In addition, new rules may mean that people who spend limited periods of time in the U.S. acquire tax obligations, including estate taxes, creating an unacceptable risk for Wegelin’s clients, Hummler said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJstU9MVcYSg

[Ghost Dog]

19. Really? Non-US cits are paying US income taxes on top of home country taxes?

How very odd.

“The good thing is that in today’s world you can build up U.S. exposure in equities and as well in bonds through derivatives and index funds and so on, so we are switching to a European-made American exposure.”

One thing is tracking down illegitimate tax evaders, something else is slapping onerous taxes on everyone else.

[ozymandius]

12. Asian Shares End Mostly Lower; Nikkei's Slump Led By Elpida

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Asian shares ended mostly lower Wednesday after a big fall on Wall Street. Japanese stocks dropped sharply with Elpida Memory Inc. plunging on equity dilution concerns after it announced a fund-raising plan.

Chinese stocks defied the trend to end higher, spurred by gains in oil refiners after Beijing hiked fuel prices. The Shanghai Composite index ended the day up 1.2%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 ended down 2.4% at 10,280.46, its biggest percentage fall in two weeks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.8% in line with the overnight selloff on Wall Street.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.7%, New Zealand's NZX-50 gave up 0.3%, Taiwan's Taiex rose 0.3%, Philippines' main index gave up 1.6% and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.6%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090902-703480.html

[Ghost Dog]

14. Investors fret 2009 stocks rally is over

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks fell close to 1 percent on Wednesday after an overnight sell off on Wall Street, with both Asia and Europe rattled by concerns over the sustainability of this year's equity rally.

The dollar was little changed by the moves.

Anxiety about the health of financials and worries the 2009 global stock market rally may have run its course hit U.S. stocks hard on Tuesday and then carried over.

Japan's Nikkei (Osaka:^N225 - News) closed down 2.4 percent for the day and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 (^FTEU3 - News) was down 1 percent.

It all took around 0.9 percent off MSCI'S all-country world stock index (^MIWD00000PUS - News) and the more-volatile emerging market component (^MSCIEF - News) lost 1.4 percent.

Concerns have risen over the summer that stocks have risen so strongly since March that they are due a correction.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Investors-fret-2009-stocks-rb-3739734523.html?x=0&.v=3

[Demeter]

44. It's Only a Game--to Some!

To those whose life savings or pension or job it was, however..

[Ghost Dog]

15. Banks knock Europe stocks down to near 2-week low

PARIS, Sept 2 (Reuters) - European stocks fell in early trade on Wednesday, losing ground for the third straight session and mirroring sharp losses on Wall Street and in Asia, with financial shares among the hardest hit.

At 0812 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was down 1.1 percent at 944.05 points. The benchmark index, which shed 1.8 percent on Tuesday, is up 46 percent since reaching a floor in March.

The DJ STOXX European banking index .SX7P was down 2.1 percent on Wednesday, with Banco Santander (SAN.MC) down 3 percent, UniCredit (CRDI.MI) down 2 percent and Barclays (BARC.L) down 2.8 percent.

Insurers also got hit, with Aegon (AEGN.AS) down 5.2 percent, Swiss Re (RUKN.VX) down 5.3 percent and ING (ING.AS) down 5 percent.

...

The VDAX-NEW volatility index .V1XI, a measure of investor risk appetite or aversion, was up 2.9 percent, after a 5.5 percent rise in the previous session. The U.S. CBOE Volatility Index .VIX jumped 12 percent on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since early July.

"It shows how fragile sentiment can still be as the market was awash with rumours about various U.S. institutions," said Arifa Sheikh-Usmani, equity trader at Spreadex in London.

...

Around Europe, UK's FTSE 100 index .FTSE was down 0.8 percent, Germany's DAX index .GDAXI down 1 percent, and France's CAC 40 .FCHI down 1 percent.

On the macro front, investors will keep an eye on U.S. monthly ADP employment data, due at 1215 GMT, that could give clues to the key U.S. payrolls figures expected on Friday.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL246611520090902?rpc=44&sp=true

[ozymandius]

20. Unemployment: The Harder You Look, The Uglier It Appears

Naked Capitalism strips away the varnish. These numbers with chart representation underline the applicant pool according to restaurant and bar owners I know. - ozy

Reader John O pointed us to a very good post from the Economic Policy Institute which gives a thorough analysis of recent unemployment data and puts it in a broader historical context. Bottom line: it is not pretty. The fixation with looking for a turn in initial jobless claims as a sign of recovery seems to have diverted attention from how deep the unemployment hole is this time around.

I’ve cherry the charts and finding; there is plenty more good stuff where this came from....

[ozymandius]

23. Cut my pay ... please!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Finding work in this recession takes determination, perseverance and, most of all, sacrifice.

With unemployment as high as 9.4% and job prospects scarce, job seekers are willing to accept as little as half of what they were making before, if it means finding a job.

In a recent survey, 65% of out-of-work respondents reported willingness to accept wages up to 30% lower than their previous compensation. And, 3% and 4%, respectively, said they would accept up to 40% and 50% of prior wages, according to the 2009 Annual Career Fair Survey released by Next Steps Career Solutions.

.....

The length of stay at an interim job is also an important factor, noted Todd Uterstaedt, president and CEO of Baker & Daboll, an executive coaching firm in Cincinnati. If an employee stays in a lesser paying position for two or more years, it's hard to make a case that they can return to the compensation level they held previously, he said.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/28/news/economy/paycuts/index.htm?postversion=2009083113

---

Increasing job numbers may look rosy - but when they are shit jobs...

[Ghost Dog]

52. I've noticed the term "menial work" casually bandied about,

at least in elitist UK media.

* Main Entry: ²menial
* Function: adjective
* Etymology: Middle English meynial, from Anglo-French meignal, from mesnee, mayné household, retinue, from Vulgar Latin *mansionata, from Latin mansion-, mansio dwelling — more at mansion
* Date: 15th century

1 : of or relating to servants : lowly
2 a : appropriate to a servant : humble, servile <answered in menial tones> b : lacking interest or dignity <a menial task>

/.. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/menial

--> I think you can see where this is leading...

[Ghost Dog]

69. 'Jobs that Americans won't do'

With millions of native-born people desperate for income, those jobs presumed to be too menial are now acceptable – a point to remember in the immigration debate.

By the Monitor's Editorial Board

from the September 1, 2009 edition
With fewer jobs for Americans these days, are there fewer jobs that Americans won't do?

The answer will influence whether Congress decides to grant amnesty to some 11 million illegal immigrants in the US, perhaps by next year.

Most illegal workers in the US are Mexicans who mow lawns, clean motel sheets, butcher hogs, pick strawberries, and otherwise toil away at tasks that, as George W. Bush once said, "Americans won't do." And they often are paid less than the minimum wage.

A widely held assumption in Washington's debate about immigration is that native-born Americans avoid menial and dirty work. Laid-off autoworkers wouldn't really wash dishes at a Denny's or milk cows on a dairy farm, would they? Such a notion has long helped justify a flow of foreign workers into the US – or possibly an amnesty for those hiding from the law.

/continues... http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0901/p08s01-comv.html

[DemReadingDU]

22. Visualization of The Billion Dollar Gram

Really cool website visualizing various data: Swine Flu, Twitter stats, 'Mountains' of media stories, movie monsters, and more. Check it out.
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/page/2/ more visualizations on page 2

From upcoming book by David McCandless: The Visual Miscellaneum
A Colorful Guide to the World’s Most Consequential Trivia
http://www.harpercollins.com/books/9780061748363/The_Visual_Miscellaneum/index.aspx

Here's the visualization of The Billion Dollar Gram
Billions spent on this. Billions spent on that. What does it all look like? Hopefully The Billion Dollar Gram will help. This image arose out of a frustration with the reporting of billion dollar amounts in the media. That is, they’re reported as self-evident facts, when, in fact, they’re mind-boggling and near incomprehensible without context. But they can start to be understood visually and relatively, IMHO. David McCandless
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/the-billion-dollar-gram/





link to this visualization
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-billion-dollar-gram/


Edit: For some reason, my Firefox browser blocks this graphic, but works fine in IE.

[Dr.Phool]

33. I'm using Firefox, and it looks fine to me.

[Hugin]

35. Hey, cool!

This aughta keep me busy all day! :D

[Ghost Dog]

54. So, can we not cancel Africa's entire debt to Western Nations

just for a start, please.

Also, I'd like to see a number for bribes, lobbyist payments, dodgy campaign funding etc. to "US officials" so as to compare with that figure of "bribes received by Russian officials" (and the same for European ones, etc...).

[tclambert]

62. That's beautiful. Bookmarked it.

[54anickel]

25. Hi Ozy and all. Just dropping by to say, I love today's toon!! Have a great day! n/t

[UpInArms]

26. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.594 Change -0.126 (-0.16%)

Euro, British Pound Pare Decline Ahead of FOMC Minutes

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/British_Pound_Pares_Gains_as_1251889674261.html

The euro bounced back against the greenback after slipping below 1.4200 during the overnight session however, the lack of momentum to cross back above the 20-Day moving average may keep the EUR/USD in a narrow range going into the U.S. trade. Meanwhile, the preliminary 2Q GDP for the Euro-Zone showed economic activity slipped 0.1% from the first three-months of the year, with the annual rate of growth falling 4.7% from the previous year amid an initial forecast for a 4.6% contraction, and growth prospects are likely to remain subdued throughout the second-half of the year as the European Central Bank forecasts

The breakdown of the GDP report showed household consumption increased 0.2% amid expectations for a flat reading, while business investments slipped 1.3% from the first quarter compared with an initial forecast for a 1.7% contraction, while government spending rose 0.4% during the three months through June, and extraordinary efforts taken on by the government should help to stimulate the ailing economy as the ECB holds borrowing costs at the record-low and commits EUR 60B in covered bond purchases. At the same time, a report by the European Union’s statistics office showed producer prices plunged at an annual rate of 8.5% in July to mark the biggest decline since recordkeeping began in 1981, while prices slipped 0.8% from the previous month amid projections for a 0.6% drop in the PPI. As price pressures remain subdued, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% on Thursday and is anticipated to maintain its asset purchase scheme to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation however, comments following the rate decision is likely to spark volatility in the currency market as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

The British pound retraced the overnight decline to hold above 1.6200, and the rebound in market sentiment may push the GBP/USD push higher over the remainder of the week as investors increase their appetite for higher yielding assets. The pound-dollar continued to find near-term support ahead of the 100-Day moving average (1.6031) after falling to a low of 1.6113 earlier this week, and risk trends are likely to drive price action for the pair as the economic docket for the U.K. remains fairly light until the following week. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed building activity fell at its slowest pace in 18 months, with the PMI reading tipping higher to 47.7 in August from 47.0 in the previous month, and the data encourages an enhanced outlook for future growth as policy makers anticipate economic activity to improve throughout the year.

The U.S. dollar lost ground during the overnight session following the rise in risk appetite however, as equity futures foreshadows a lower open of the U.S. market, a downturn in market sentiment could lead the greenback higher over the next 24 hours of trading. At the same time, the economic calendar is expected to show a 250K drop in private employment, while factory orders are projected to increase 2.2% in July but nevertheless, we may see the greenback hold steady ahead of the FOMC minutes as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. The Fed is likely to hold an improved outlook for growth and inflation as the economic downturn nears a bottom however, as mounting bank failures continue to pose a threat to financial stability, the statement could may highlight the ongoing weakness in bank lending, which could stoke fears of a slower recovery as households and businesses face tightening credit conditions.

...more...

September Effect Could Push S&P 500 Lower, Japanese Yen Higher

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/September_Effect_Could_Push_S_P_1251810573944.html

The “September Effect” on the S&P 500 and broader risky assets has typically led stocks lower on the month, and a continuation in said tendency would likely push the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen higher through the foreseeable future. Indeed, the month of September is historically the worst month of the year for the S&P. It is interesting to note that the US Dollar Index has likewise historically fallen in September, but a shift in market dynamics suggests that this is less likely in the month ahead.







Seasonal tendencies point to S&P 500 declines through the month of September. The S&P 500 has fallen through in said month through 11 out of the past 20 years of trading—good for over 10 points on average. Though this may not seem like much, the past 10 years have actually seen the S&P drop over 50 points on four different occasions. We can give no concrete explanation for the clear September underperformance, but it is likewise fairly clear that S&P 500 trading volume picks up substantially as traders return from summer breaks. If the past is any indication of what is to come, traders should be on the lookout for risk sentiment-linked Japanese Yen and US Dollar gains through September.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

32. MONEY MARKETS-Libor rates at record lows as banks battered

Wed Sep 2, 2009 8:50am EDT LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Three-month dollar, euro and sterling interbank rates fell to record lows in Europe on Wednesday as fresh fears over bank failures caused financial stocks to fall.

Sentiment spilling over into Europe, money market trading overnight in Asia was dogged by fears a major bank or hedge fund would fail, a factor that has played a part in driving U.S. stock markets down three days in a row .IXIC.GSPC.

...

Ahead of the European Central Bank's rate-setting meeting on Thursday, which is expected to leave its policy rate at a euro lifetime low of 1.0 percent, politicians were keen to stress it was too soon to consider exit strategies by the authorities.

The worst for the global economic recession may be over but the euro zone and other regions may still need help. It is not yet time to withdraw fiscal help said Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the euro area finance ministers.

...

The fall in Libor rates, which are fixed by the British Bankers' Association , was also echoed by a fresh record low in the three-month Euribor rate in Frankfurt which extended an 11-month fall in response to massive liquidity injections into the banking system by the ECB.

The three-month dollar Libor rate USD3MFSR= was fixed at 0.33000 percent on Wednesday and more than a full five basis points below the equivalent Japanese yen Libor rate JPY3MFSR=. The spread inverted in August, with the dollar Libor rate falling below the yen rate for the first time since the 1990s.

"The fall in U.S. Libors seems relentless right now. At the current rate of decline in the three-month level, we could test 30 basis points on Monday or Tuesday next week," said Peter Chatwell, a market analyst at Calyon in London. He said this should cement dollar rates staying beneath yen rates in the short term and there was little prospect for a reversal soon.

"Dollar Libor has reached these levels due to the excess of dollar liquidity in the money markets and the market's expectations of a low rate regime in the U.S. for a significant time to come," he added.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL22006620090902?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

55. Euro to Decline Versus Yen on ‘Far Worse’ Economy, BNP Says

Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The euro will lose eight percent of its value against the yen by the middle of 2010 as the economy in the 16-nation region deteriorates and Japanese banks increase investments in local assets, according to BNP Paribas SA.

The euro will decline to 128 yen by the end of 2009, before falling to 121 yen by the end of second quarter next year, said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist in London at BNP.

“The euro will come under pressure because the state of the European economy is far worse than the market is currently assuming,” Stannard in an interview today. “More steps will have to be taken as the problem in the banking sector becomes more evident.”

The euro-region economy shrank 4.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, after contracting 4.9 percent in the first quarter, a European Union report showed today. From the previous three months, second-quarter gross domestic product shrank 0.1 percent.

The yen will be supported by demand from Japanese banks investing in the country, seeking to benefit as the incoming Democratic Party of Japan government embarks on a policy of boosting domestic demand, Stannard said.

/.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aLjFNbzqAUW0

[UpInArms]

27. Madoff case trustee targeting sons, brother: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5810HA20090902?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The court-appointed trustee in charge of the Bernard Madoff Ponzi case is preparing to file civil complaints against Madoff's two sons, as well as his brother, CBS News reported on Tuesday.

Trustee Irving Picard will seek more than $50 million, including at least $30 million in loans to the sons, the report said, citing a source. It added the aim was to recapture money diverted from Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme.

Picard also wants to force the Madoffs to reveal all of their assets, including bank accounts and a home one son, Mark, bought for $6.5 million in cash, the report said, citing other sources.

Picard could not be immediately reached at his New York office.

Madoff, 71, is serving a 150-year prison sentence after pleading guilty to engineering the long-running $65 billion fraud, Wall Street's biggest. His sons, Mark and Andrew, ran the trading division at their father's firm, while Madoff's brother, Peter, was its chief compliance officer.

[Demeter]

45. Make It So, Picard!

[Festivito]

28. Debt: 08/28/2009 11,718,758,941,630.90 (DOWN 6,718,894,459.95) (Mixed.)

(Debt up an eighth of a billion, FICA side down well over six billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,394,008,706,466.14 + 4,324,750,235,164.76
UP 123,059,531.85 + DOWN 6,841,953,991.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,297,461 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,134.9.
A family of three owes $114,404.71. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,418,812,338.91.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,535,049,871.13.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,421,016,004.32.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 153 reports in 220 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.09B$ per report, 4.96B$/day so far.
There were 228 reports in 332 days of FY2009 averaging 7.43B$ per report, 5.10B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,241 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/28/2009 11,718,758,941,630.90 BHO (UP 1,091,881,892,717.82 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,694,034,044,718.50 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,091,881,892,717.82 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********

63,844,991,677.44 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4039738&mesg_id=4039804

[Festivito]

60. Debt: 09/01/2009 11,792,918,170,836.43 (UP 74,159,229,205.53) (Big jump.)

(Debt up a lot of billions: 87, FICA side down thirteen billion hiding some of the debt going up so much.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,481,218,854,095.12 + 4,311,699,316,741.31
UP 87,210,147,628.98 + DOWN 13,050,918,423.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,332,021 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,371.91.
A family of three owes $115,115.74. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,621,219,151.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,122,227,377.73.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,864,588,166.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 154 reports in 224 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.52B$ per report, 5.21B$/day so far.
There were 229 reports in 336 days of FY2009 averaging 7.72B$ per report, 5.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,237 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/01/2009 11,792,918,170,836.43 BHO (UP 1,166,041,121,923.35 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,768,193,273,924.00 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,166,041,121,923.35 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue

150,833,003,563.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4042733&mesg_id=4042824

[MattSh]

30. Beijing's derivative default stance rattles market

BEIJING, Aug 31 (Reuters) - A weekend report that Chinese state-owned companies will be allowed to default on commodity derivative contracts provoked anger and dismay among investment banks on Monday as they feared a damaging precedent.

China's SOE regulator, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), has told six foreign banks that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying in an article published on Saturday.

A SASAC media official said he was waiting for the "relevant department's" official comment before he can clarify to media.

The report, the hot topic among bankers from Shanghai to Singapore on Monday, deals another blow to investment banks hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world's fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer.

"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry. But now the key is to find out more details on the letter: In whose name the letter was issued, government or corporate? And under what reasons for possible defaults?" said a Singapore-based marketing executive with a foreign bank.

"If it's in the name of the government, the impact will be very negative," said the executive, who did not want to the named due to the sensitive nature of the matter.

more --> http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSPEK36146520090831

[Hugin]

36. Is this the...

"Shanghai Shocker" that was causing all of the chatter on the financial forums last evening?

[Dr.Phool]

37. The banksters have always contended that they have that right.

The right to alter the terms of an agreement at any time, for any reason, or for no reason.

Maybe now they'll find out what it's like to be one of their customers.

[Demeter]

46. Australia to phase out stimulus measures

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/247f0c52-9768-11de-83c5-00144feabdc0.html

"Australia will phase out stimulus spending in the coming months amid signs the developed world’s best performing economy will be the first among its peers to lift interest rates."

Green shoots anyone?

[Hugin]

47. Pfizer settles drug-promotion case for $2.3 billion (MW)

By Benjamin Pimentel, MarketWatch

Largest health-care-fraud settlement in Justice Department history

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Pfizer Inc. and its subsidiary Pharmacia & Upjohn Co. Inc. have agreed to pay $2.3 billion related to Justice Department allegations that they illegally promoted certain drugs, the federal agency said Wednesday.

Shares of Pfizer (PFE 16.23) were down a fraction Wednesday morning, after the Justice Department announced what it said was the largest health-care-fraud settlement in the agency's history.

Pfizer has agreed to settle allegations that it illegally promoted four drugs: Bextra, an anti-inflammatory drug the company recalled from the market in 2005; Geodon, an anti-psychotic drug; Zyvox, an antibiotic; and Lyrica, an anti-epileptic drug, the DOJ said.

The company "caused false claims to be submitted to government health care programs for uses that were not medically accepted indications and therefore not covered by those programs," the DOJ said in a statement.

The agency said the settlement also "resolves allegations that Pfizer paid kickbacks to health care providers to induce them to prescribe these, as well as other, drugs."

Read more ... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pfizer-settles-drug-promotion-case-for-23-bln-2009-09-02

[AnneD]

58. How private equity profits at taxpayer expense

Every time a private equity firm does a leveraged buy out, you lose. That's the result of a study to be presented at New York University this month, the New York Post reports.

Companies targeted in buyouts are able to slash their federal tax payments by deducting loan interest. Buyouts tend to be structured like mortgages, with the private equity firm putting down 30 percent to 40 percent of the purchase price and the target company taking out loans to pay the rest.

By deducting the loan payments, the acquired companies pay pay 15 cents less on every pretax dollar than other competitors of the same size, the study found.

As the Post reported:

When studying buyouts of 80 public companies, found those businesses paid about a 22 percent marginal tax rate before being bought, and only 10 percent the year of going private.

more.....

http://blogs.chron.com/lorensteffy/2009/09/how_private_equ_1.html

Something you already know....

[AnneD]

59. 11 Dumb Ways to get in Debt

There are many reasons why people fall in debt, such as medical issues, school, starting a business and purchasing a home. Some situation you do not have much of choice and the debt is for a good reason, for example if you get in debt due to school it’s fine because in the long run you will be able to make up for it. However there are some bad reasons why many fall in debt, the list below illustrates the top 11 …well not so good reasons to fall in debt.

1. Leasing a Car – You are basically paying several hundred dollars per month in leasing only to return the car after a few years. After spending tens of thousands of dollars what do you have to show for it?

2. Purse and Shoes obsessions (or any other obsession for that matter) – Unless you are purchasing collectible items that increase in value, this is a pretty dumb way to get yourself in debt.

3. Financing a Car – If you can not afford that $50,000 car why do you think you can afford to finance it? A car loses about 25% of its value as soon as it is driven off the lot. You will be stuck making payments for the next 5 years or longer on something that is losing its value faster …than Wall Street came down.

more, of course.....


http://financialhighway.com/11-dumb-ways-to-get-in-debt/

purses???? 'RUT ROW, Rime rusted'. I have some but I do rotate them-does that help? I tend to buy quality and wear things out. We stay at home so we have DVD's too-but we watch them multiple times and generally get them for $5 and under. I don't mind good used.

[TheWatcher]

61. Something is Afoot.

The next shoe to drop is probably going to come soon.

The Fed Minutes today tell us that The Recession ended in August.

They are going full bore with the Propaganda that the Recession is now over.

Any thinking individual who is not willfully blind, ignorant, and has an IQ over that of a Sports Top Drink Bottle knows this is one of the biggest lies and deceptions ever put forth on The American People.

They are going with it. And they are playing their hand as if it is the Word Of God.

There is no way they are going to be able to hide the Truth forever.

So, as of today, we might ask ourselves the simple, but frightening questions:

What are they going to do? What are they planning?

They obviously can't GOVERN, they cannot and do not plan to fix any of the problems, address any of the issues that got us into the Crisis to begin with, and they have no plans to do anything to stimulate or grow the Real Economy. There will be no job creation, and it's obvious The People do not matter or figure into any of their plans.

What are they going to do when it becomes so obvious that it can no longer be ignored, and The People have been left to fend for themselves, with a terminally corrupt Government that refuses to serve their interests?



Fed minutes: officials saw recession's end in Aug.

Fed minutes: With economy on mend in Aug., officials felt comfortable slowing revival program



WASHINGTON (AP) -- With the U.S. economy on the mend, Federal Reserve policymakers last month felt comfortable slowing the pace of one of its economic revival programs and not changing any others, according to documents released Wednesday.


Minutes of the central bank's closed door deliberations, held Aug. 11-12, also showed Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues striking a much more hopeful note about the economy's prospects compared with an assessment made in late June. Many Fed officials saw "smaller downside risks," the documents stated.

Fed officials expected the pace of the recovery to "pick up" in 2010, but there was a range of views -- and considerable uncertainty -- about the likely strength of the upturn because of concerns about how consumers will behave.

After being pounded by the recession, consumer spending finally appeared to be leveling out, the housing market was firming and manufacturing was stabilizing, the Fed said. Plus, the outlook for other countries' economies improved, auguring well for the sale of U.S. exports.

All that strengthened the confidence of Fed officials that "the downturn in economic activity was ending."They also repeated a prediction that the economy would start growing again in the second half of this year. That expected growth will be helped by President Barack Obama's $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending, they said.

Against that backdrop, the Fed at its August meeting, announced that it would gradually slow the pace of its program to buy the remainder of $300 billion worth of Treasury securities and shut it down at the end of October, a month later than previously scheduled. The program is designed to force interest rates down for mortgages and other consumer debt, and spur Americans to spend more money.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fed-minutes-officials-saw-apf-2028717293.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

This is the kind of Propaganda one would expect to see from the Soviet Union in the 1970's. The conditions and pontifications they lay out here are so 180 degrees from Reality, they might as well be talking about a Parallel Universe.

NOWHERE is Commercial Real Estate, the next shoe to fall mentioned, the concerns that China will begin dumping the debt, the continued, slow bleed devaluation of the currency, and the myriad of other issues that The Media, Government, and Fed constantly ignore, and apparently want to imply don't exist.

My personal feeling is that there is no way things can go on like this.

I know they can keep this illusion alive longer than most of us can stay solvent, but the fact they are really trying to sell the Public that a GROWTH and Recovery period is coming means that they have either totally lost it, or something big is about to happen so they can once again staple their hands to their foreheads and consolingly assure the Public "no one could have forseen....."

Things are about get ugly.

I hope I'm wrong, but this whole mess could start unraveling as soon as November.

And if the Magical Mystery Flu comes.....

Who knows?

[AnneD]

63. And people are going to gold because........

??????eom.

[Ghost Dog]

64. Full-bore propaganda, yes,

I thought you'd notice that, Watcher.

O8)

[BelgianMadCow]

65. LEAP2020 are detailing your "something" as 3 "rogue waves"

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents
- Published June 17, 2009 -

Global systemic crisis in summer 2009: The cumulative impact of three « rogue waves »
Because the origins of the crisis remain unaddressed, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the summer 2009 will be marked by the converging of three very destructive « rogue waves », illustrating the aggravation of the crisis and entailing major upheaval by September/October 2009… (page 2)

The three « rogue waves » of summer 2009

The wave of massive unemployment: Three different dates of impact depending on the country: in America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Summer 2009 will be remembered as a tipping point as regards the impact of unemployment on the course of events of the global systemic crisis. Indeed, it will be the time when, instead of a consequence of the crisis, unemployment worldwide will turn into a factor aggravating it. Of course, this process will unwind neither at the same pace everywhere, nor with similar consequences... (page 7)

The breaking wave of serial failures: companies, banks, housing, states, counties, towns
Apart from these very high profile events, the number of failures of large, medium and small companies and financial institutions is rapidly and steadily growing. The speed should increase even more after summer 2009. Meanwhile, in the United States, United Kingdom and Spain in particular, a second wave of real estate foreclosures is gestating as well as a wave of state, county and town debt defaults during summer 2009. Financial media’s “green shoots” are only hiding the “dead leaves” of the real economy… (page 15)

The wave of the terminal crisis of US Treasuries, Dollars and Pounds, and the return of inflation
This first BRIC Summit (which it is not difficult to imagine how difficult it was to organize), is the first sign of dislocation of the current international system. The US probably did everything it could to prevent it from taking place; moreover they were refused the status of observers inside it, indicating clearly that what was to be discussed had nothing to do with diplomacy. The main topic was not a military and strategic issue, but a monetary and financial one: what to do with the hundreds of billions of US dollars (in the form of US Treasuries in particular) accumulated by these four countries in the past few years?... (page 22)

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-36-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-in-summer-2009-The-cumulative-impact-of-three-rogue-waves_a3359.html

I have been wondering for what feels like ages whether to buy something tangible of real value with the bit of savings we have before the inflation backlog bump comes. I think that inflation will be in necessities, while things like cars and flatscreen tvs or laptops crash in price (as is already the case here).

And on propaganda: "Decline of car sales bottoming out" was a headline in our financial paper. As it turns out, they called a month on month decline of 9 %, which was "only" equal to that of the month before, a sign of bottoming out...

[DemReadingDU]

70. Mystery flu? Hurricane Erika? Big bank failure?

It's like they are setting it up that it's all going so well...GDP is good, more people getting rehired, economy out of recession, more houses selling, stock market rallying.To hear the media, there is nothing to worry about.

Except, we all know everything is holding together by a thin string, just waiting for something to come along to break it. The Mystery flu? Hurricane Erika? Big bank failure?

Something. Something is going to come out of the air. Something that no one could have foreseen. Something that is going to be blamed for the stock market crashing, and the depression to follow. Something is going to happen. But the markets have to be propped up until the 'event'.