Improving economy not likely to lower jobless rate

[BobRossi]

Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON – The economy is showing consistent signs of improvement, but probably not enough to stop employers from cutting jobs or to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that the jobless rate increased to 9.5 percent in August, from 9.4 percent in July, as employers cut 225,000 jobs.

The employment report will follow other recent data that shows the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since World War II. A trade group reported Tuesday that the manufacturing sector grew in August for the first time in 19 months, while home sales have increased for several months.

But the economy isn't expected to grow strongly enough this year to persuade companies to ramp up hiring. Most economists expect the unemployment rate to top 10 percent by early next year.


Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090904/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy_39

[jody]

1. Can there be a jobless recovery? n/t

[Mari333]

2. aye, and THEREs the RUB

without decent jobs that have LIVABLE wages, the so called economic recovery doesnt mean shit and shinola.
When corporations outsource they should be held accountable, taxed, fined, and slapped around.
Unfortunately, our politicians are mostly owned by corporations, so that wont happen anytime soon.
Its pretty much common sense..
these idiot corporations with short term profit fantasies started moving manufacturing jobs OUT of the USA back in the 80s, (thank that asshole Reagan)..and yet their short sighted GREED in needing SLAVE labour in other countries has now caused a whole society HERE to be without jobs, without income, and who the fuck is going to buy their goods?
There is no economic recovery until Obama gets serious about these multinational corporations sending jobs overseas...until then, its a wash.

[Donnachaidh]

3. it's only improving for the wealthy, and that's all that COUNTS in this country

And the out of work middle class sinking into poverty assures more menial workers for the wealthy to continue getting their *due* - people desperate enough to take jobs at lower wages, with no benefits, longer hours, etc.

Yup -- that *change* we were promised ain't at all what we envisioned, now is it? :sarcasm:

[Mari333]

5. yes its creating quite a SUBCLASS of slave labour isnt it

the really wealthy now have privatized prisoners working for them, in prisons, and now what used to be the middle class is becoming the new slave labour force. Its working out well for the wealthy, thats all. the rest of us can fuck off and die it seems.

[Donnachaidh]

8. yup. Bet you didn't guess that *change* would come with *chains*, now did you?

Company store, 21st century style. Bail out the banks so they can crank up the charges on consumers, while jobs head out of the country....

[BobRossi]

9. The only 'change' that I see..

Is the change my un-employed ass can beg on the street.

[Donnachaidh]

11. you mean your town hasn't put laws together to keep people from loitering and begging yet?

Atlanta has, and IIRC, NYC has them.

Drive the poor and unemployed out, so those still living in those areas don't have to disturb their *beautiful minds* with the reality that is killing the real middle class in this country.

Oh wait - once that's done then the people making a half mill a year will start calling themselves the *middle class*. But they'll be a *classier* middle class....:sarcasm:

[BobRossi]

12. I don't beg in my town.

Too many unemployed here!

[Donnachaidh]

14. LOL!

I'm beginning to see that here, too.

[Jim Sagle]

4. Guess the eCONomy jest ain't wut it use ta bee.

[CoffeeCat]

6. So, how can we have an "improving economy" when we...

...continue to bleed jobs?

The answer is...you can't. And it's not just unemployment. This is bigger than
unemployment. People are afraid of losing their jobs. They have drastically cut
spending because they're trying to shore up savings and/or pay off debt.

In addition, people are no longer stimulating the economy with out-of-control
credit-card spending and by taking out second mortgages.

So much has changed, just in the last year.

There is no recovery. There might be glimmers. There might be "Oh my gosh, yes that's bad, but
it's not as bad as the experts predicted!" fake good news---but that doesn't change the fact that
we're in a downward spiral.

[Autumn]

7. Then it's not improving.

Don't piss in my ear and tell me it's raining.

[Psephos]

10. employment is a lagging indicator during recessions

It's the last thing to improve. Employers don't want to increase their fixed costs until they're certain that economic growth has taken hold, so they make do with current employees until the rising swell of new orders and contracts convinces them to start hiring. It usually takes at least a year of improved conditions before hiring really takes off.

Nothing to see here.

[nod factor]

13. I swear

unemployment is a "lagging indicator" must be the most annoying phrase in the English language. In a consumer-based economy the product of Unemployment/Wages is not a "lagging indicator" it is THE indicator. Yet Bernanke, Geithner, and Summers are now all on record as saying that's the direction for this "recovery," jobless. Clearly a "new normal" has been mapped.

[Psephos]

18. Well, I agree completely with you that employment is "THE" indicator that counts

However, every past recession has shown a simple pattern: there's been no way to increase employment broadly across the economy without first having an increase in business demand. In a consumer-driven economy, this effect is magnified and delayed...but eventually pent-up demand breaks the log-jam.

It's like the way cars in a line move at a traffic light. You see the green light, but you have to wait for the car in front of you to start moving. The longer the line (i.e., the deeper the recession), the longer you must wait before the movement wave makes its way back to you.

[Skittles]

21. THANK YOU NOD

stick it to the apologists - it's much worse than they're saying - even the employees being retained are losing wages and benefits - there's no recovery

[Ghost Dog]

24. No problem: Thanks to the lack of health care, the unemployed

will die off, leaving fewer to share what's left of the cake (and even more desperate to work for peanuts).

Meanwhile, the wealthy and their global enterprises have workers working for them down South and out East, cheaply and with none of the onerous social and environmental protections built up over the last century.

Clean sweep economics. You know it makes sense (Reagan/Thatcher dixit).

(Don't flame me, that's the devil's advocate speaking. Sarcasm tag shouldn't be required.

Take back Congress for the People; Outlaw the corporate lobbyists (and corporate personhood); Tax the rich to within an inch of their lives; Build a new sustainable, socially and environmentally efficient economy; End the Wars).

[Mari333]

15. the trickle down theory never works.

[PSPS]

23. While true, this is different

In past recessions, especially those in the past thirty years, employment improved due to increased personal spending based on personal debt. This time, personal debt is too high and people simply aren't interested in assumng even more debt to begin spending again. Plus the days of "easy credit" where you're getting new credit card offers in the mail almost daily are gone for good, as is the ability to use equity in a house as an ATM machine. These factors have caused a fundamental shift in the way people think about buying things.

Obama's shoveling of $13 trillion of taxpayer's money (so far) to the banks has created sort of a "bubble" in the stock market casino, but that's not indicative of anything beyond that. If you're in the enviable position of being able to do front-running, then "the economy" is, indeed, "improving." But in overall true terms, there's little hope for the future without some kinds of domestic manufacturing industries that employ people and pay a decent livable wage.

[Wounded Bear]

27. I don't think they consider labor to be a "fixed cost" any more....

It's the first to be cut and the last to be brought back on line. And if they cut here, it is even cheaper and easier to move the labor overseas.

Current indicators are that they won't have to bring labor back on line for this "recovery."

:shrug:

[Psephos]

30. Actually, because modern labor costs involve way more than a wage, it's treated as a semi-fixed cost

Things like pension, medical, unemployment, worker's comp, and other defined costs and taxes now factor in. These are in addition to an ever-increasing commitment of capital to machinery and technology to support a new employee.

As a rule of thumb, employers figure about three times the new employee's wage or salary as a first-year sunk cost. Of course, this varies a lot depending on the specific job...but it gives one an idea of the scope.

I agree with you, sadly, it's going to be quite a wait for employment to recover after GDP turns north again. And some of those jobs will never come back.

[TheWatcher]

28. There is nothing to see here because you are blind.

In an economy based on Debt and Consumption, Economy is not only a Leading Indicator, it is THE Indicator.

And it is not going to improve any time soon.

[Psephos]

29. And you are rude.

And you misinterpreted my point. "Nothing to see here" meant don't be fooled by those who say we're now pulling out of recession. Until employment rises, that "pull-out" will be experienced by the few, not the many.

And you might have read post #18 to realize we agree about your central point.

And you might have proofed your post so that you didn't put the word "economy" where you meant "employment" and wrecked the logic of your statement.

;)

[TheWatcher]

31. My apologies for the mistake then.

If we are in concurrence, then that was my mistake.

As was the wrecked logic of the post. :)

However, having gotten so used to cheerleading, Propaganda Cutting And Pasting, and complete cognitive dissonance on DU regarding the Economy, these mistakes unfortunately happen.

As for the rudeness, it really can't be helped these days. The population is becoming so Zombie Like and disconnected from reality, it is a symptom from frustration.

But it is a shame when it is directed at someone who it was not due.

Again, my apologies.

[robcon]

16. Unemployment has always been a lagging indicator.

It goes up several months after the economy starts declining, and it goes down several months after the economy improves.

[fasttense]

20. It use to be except for the last Republicon Great Depression.

That Depression was not officially considered over until WWII, when most of the population had a job in the war.

The recessions since then improved because workers and consumers could dip into the collateral on their homes, use their savings, or 401Ks. Consumers lifted the economy out of recession by borrowing. Once borrowing increased, spending increased and consumer sales picked up the economy (70% of the US GDP). But now workers and consumers have very minimal wages and no collateral left to borrow from. What bank is going to lend to you if you don't have any collateral or a good history of a good paying job?

So, the economy will never fully recover until those workers and consumers have either good paying jobs, or collateral to borrow upon.

[WriteDown]

22. So it sounds like another Great War is the answer?

:shrug:

[Deja Q]

26. That is true.

It hurts, but it's still true. Employment will go up again...

[droidamus2]

17. (A)nother (P)ropaganda tool

If you have been paying attention, and I know people here at DU do pay attention, you will realize that the AP is no longer (and maybe never was as far as I know) neutral when it comes to 'reporting' about Obama. I have developed the habit of checking every time I see a negative story or a headline that tries to question some positive news about Obama to see if it is an AP story. They pretty consistently try to undermine the President.

[Psephos]

19. lol - meanwhile, the RW is dead certain that AP is in the bag for Obama

The effect is called "selection bias."

They also think the Washington Post is the reincarnation of Pravda and the New York Times is the World Wide Worker's Daily. ;)

[superconnected]

25. I guess I'm missing how they're not mutually exclusive.