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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 06:11 PM
Original message
US, allies seek 'unfettered access' to Iran site
Source: AP

WASHINGTON — The U.S. and its five allies trying to stop Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program plan to tell Tehran in a key meeting on Thursday that it must provide "unfettered access" to its previously secret Qom enrichment facility within weeks, a senior administration official says.

The allies — the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia — also will present in the Oct. 1 meeting a so-called transparency package covering all of Iran's nuclear activities across the country, said the official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss plans that are not yet ready to be announced.

The allies will demand that Iran prove to the increasingly skeptical group that its intentions with its various sites are peaceful and energy-related, as Iran claims, and not for weapons development, as the West believes, the official said Saturday.

These nations now agree that they are less inclined to listen to suspect arguments or incomplete evidence — viewing it as a stall tactic, the official said.

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jC3rOq7Hsg8ZtdztovxA5FwuFo7wD9AV9DGO0
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. gee, doesn't this script sound familiar...?
Edited on Sat Sep-26-09 07:15 PM by mike_c
After all, we wouldn't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud, would we? Oh wait....
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Seemed like obvious propaganda to me.
If it is not ready to be announced, why is he making it public? Is he a liar, a traitor, or a tool?
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The abyss Donating Member (930 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Yes, I agree – propaganda.
Please see post #10 on this topic http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4076619

What part of the NPT did Iran violate by the non-disclosure?

Reading the NPT text (http://www.un.org/events/npt2005/npttreaty.html ) I don't see a requirement that the IAEA should be notified about facilities under construction, unless there are nuclear materials in the facility. Therefore, Iran was under no obligation to notify the IAEA about the new facility under construction, as long as there were no nuclear materials in it.

Also, in the NPT text, I don't see a limitation on the number of nuclear enrichment facilities an NPT member can have. Iran may build as many facilities as it wants to.
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Psephos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 12:51 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. No, clear violation of agreements. Here are the relevant sections.
I posted this in a similar thread.


Article 42 of Iran's Safeguards Agreement, and Code 3.1 of the General Part of the Subsidiary Arrangements, oblige Iran to fully disclose to the IAEA any decision to build a facility to house operational centrifuges, and to further provide initial designs and plans about the facility, regardless of whether or not nuclear material has been introduced. The agreements specify that such an action will trigger a program of access to the site, along with design verification inspections, by the IAEA.

Note that the agreements do not require the presence of nuclear material on site to trigger the required notification and subsequent inspections.

Iran's secret Qom facility is illegal and continues to violate the agreements that Iran signed. These are the agreements which Ahmadinejad has assured us for years that Iran has upheld.

It's not propaganda. It's a violation of international agreements entered in good faith.
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bananas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Yes, it is a clear violation of agreements.
There are also people saying it can only enrich to 5%, that's incorrect:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2009/09/25/DI2009092501605.html

<snip>

James Acton: There is no essential difference between the technology required to enrich to 5% and 90%. Once Iran has mastered the technology to produce low enriched uranium, it can reconfigure the equipment to produce HEU relatively simply. There is some technical debate among experts about how long it would take to do so--but none that it is possible.

<snip>

Iran's original agreement with the IAEA (its so-called Subsidiary Agreements) specified that new facilities should be declared to the IAEA 180 days before nuclear material was introduced. However, in 2003 Iran, by an exchange of letters, Iran agreed to the modified "Code 3.1" which obliges it to report new facilities as soon as the decision to build one is taken. When Iran agreed to this in 2003 it was the last state with significant nuclear activities to do so.

In 2007 Iran tried to claim that its modified Code 3.1 wasn't binding because it hadn't been ratified. However, this argument is wrong because exchange of letters is the standard procedure for modifying Subsidiary Arrangements.

I am almost certain (although would like to double check) that Subsidiary Arrangements (unlike Safeguards Agreements and Additional Protocols) are not ratified by national legislatures. So it is absurd to claim that changes to Subsidiary Arrangements need ratification.

Finally, I'd point out that under para 39 of Iran's Safeguards Agreement it cannot unilaterally modify a subsidiary arrangement.

has tried to claim that Code 3.1 isn't binding but this agreement can only be modified with the permission of both the IAEA and Iran. So, the new facility is indeed a violation of Iran's safeguards agreement. They can only be changed with the permission of both the state and the IAEA.

<snip>


http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/2476/parallel-fuel-cycles

<snip>

First, the unclassified US talking points state that the facility would be capable of producing about a weapons worth of material per year. A 3,000 centrifuge facility using Iran’s antiquated IR-1 centrifuges would be able to produce about one and a half weapons worth of high enriched uranium per year (39 kilograms with tails set to 0.4 per cent and 34 kilograms with tails set to 0.3 per cent). If equipped with more advanced centrifuges, the facility becomes quite lethal. The last generation of SNOR designs, for instance, if installed in Qom, could easily produce up to 80 kilograms worth of weapons grade uranium per year. The centrifuges would require little room, about 30 meters square, and draw very little power.

<snip>

Finally, we are definitely looking at a safeguards violation. It’s worth recalling that Iran did upgrade its subsidiary arrangements to oblige them to report facilities to the IAEA when they were at the design stage. They did this in 2003. They unilaterally pulled out of this arrangement in 2007. As James Acton correctly points out, the arrangement entered into force through simple exchange of letters. As in any contract, the principle pacta sunt servanda prevails (just put that term in Google).

A state can no more pull out of a contract than you can get out of, say, a mobile phone contract before it expires. It takes two parties to terminate an agreement. And the IAEA never accepted Iran’s withdrawal.

Not that it matters. It would seem like construction started at some time before March 2007. That is, at a time when even Iran itself considered itself bound by Code 3.1.

This is going to be very difficult to explain away, even by Iran’s highly talented spin-doctors.

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ronnie624 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Good info. Thanks for posting.
Edited on Sun Sep-27-09 11:08 AM by ronnie624
Apparently, the legality of Iran's new facility hinges on whether or not an exchange of letters is in fact the Pacta Sunt Servanda of code 3.1 of the Subsidiary Arrangements of the NPT. Iran claims the agreement requires ratification by its national assembly. The information you provided doesn't really establish this with certainty.

I'm out of time now, so perhaps someone will be kind enough to post information on this.
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daleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 07:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Yes, this has a familiar ring to it
Though I can't believe Obama would go down that folly-filled road.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 09:12 PM
Response to Original message
5. Same Script, Different Administration. Simply replacing the 'Q' with an 'N'.
Edited on Sat Sep-26-09 09:13 PM by TheWatcher
The only thing that really amazes me at this point is how many of my countrymen are falling for it....AGAIN.

This foolishness has GOT to stop. There are six billion people on this planet being bullied and compromised by an insane cabal of out of control Oligarchs, desperately trying to play out their own personal game of "Risk".

Enough is Enough.

IF Obama is stupid enough to go down this road and take this country with him, then I refuse to be taken along for the ride. And I will wash my hands of him AND his merry men.

There will need to be more justification than not getting "unfettered access" to the newly discovered "Secret Site" of Dr. Evil, and more manufactured intelligence.

What scares me is what that conveniently timed event will be.

The More Things Change, The More The Stay The Same.
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-29-09 06:05 AM
Response to Reply #5
18. Thank you.
> The only thing that really amazes me at this point is how many of
> my countrymen are falling for it....AGAIN.
+
> There are six billion people on this planet being bullied and compromised
> by an insane cabal of out of control Oligarchs, desperately trying to play
> out their own personal game of "Risk".

Ain't that the truth.
:-(
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prostomulgus Donating Member (188 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. The US has nuclear sites too...
Does Iran get "unfettered access" to these US sites? After all, Iran has plenty of evidence that the US is hostile toward it. Seems like they would have at least equal justification for demanding that the US prove that it does not have evil intentions toward Iran.
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boppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-26-09 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Sure, come on in to the US enrichment plants!
Paducah, Kentucky, and Piketon, Ohio, and Lea County, New Mexico, and new ones planned for Bonneville County, Idaho and Wilmington, North Carolina... (No big secret)

They're really quite boring, actually. I'm guessing the US just wants a peak at the tech involved, to track down who/what is likely influencing their design, and see if they've gotten more efficient. Under their older systems, it took 6 years worth of time/energy to process the amount of Uranium that would have been needed for a *single* weapon. Considering their new cascade is even smaller than the existing one, either they've gotten more efficient, or just wanted a backup plan, or plan on only processing slightly more per year.
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Psephos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. This isn't about US access to Iranian atomic sites. This is about UN access to Iranian atomic sites.
Specifically, as a signatory to the NPT and a duly constituted member of the UN, Iran is obliged to respect the agreements which it voluntarily signed regarding disclosure of its atomic sites and access to them by UN inspectors.
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MisterP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 12:19 AM
Response to Original message
8. aw man, that's exactly what Austria-Hungary demanded of Serbia in 1914
and we know how well that worked out...
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-27-09 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
13. You could have highlighted use of the term "allies" also.
- More correct terminology being "Group of Six", or "the six countries (or 'powers' if you like) negotiating with Iran".

Eg:

The 1 October meeting was agreed between European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili by telephone, Mr Solana's spokeswoman said.

Mr Solana has been representing the six powers - the UK, China, France, Russia and the US, the five permanent Security Council members, and Germany - in long-running efforts to tackle the issue.

Representatives of the six powers - who have offered diplomatic and economic incentives to Iran if it agrees to suspend uranium enrichment - are expected to be at the meeting.

"Iran is ready for a serious dialogue in October," Mr Jalili said.

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8254344.stm
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-28-09 07:53 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. It seemed more concise to point out that it was all anonymous bullshit.
As opposed to examining all the turds one by one. But you are correct, of course. Something reasonably honest would have "analyzed" the situation to observe that this is all a dog-and-pony show intended by various parties to apply pressure on other parties in the run up to this meeting.
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-29-09 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Honest analysis: We are aware of the Scott Ridder analysis:
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-29-09 10:43 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Yes, Mr Ritter writes cogently about the situation.
There was another of his pieces about this situation around here somewhere, but I seem to remember it being a bit different.

One could also argue that this is an attempt to prevent a resolution of the issue. If Iran got removed from the enemies list, there would be hardly anyone left.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-28-09 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
15. FAST REWIND to 2002 - but the nation that's "evil" ends in an "n" instead of an "q."
:eyes:
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harun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-28-09 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
16. Neo-con propaganda.
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