STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 29

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 29, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 28, 2009

Dow... 9,789.36 +124.17 (+1.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,130.74 +39.82 (+1.90%)
S&P 500... 1,062.98 +18.60 (+1.78%)
Gold future... 994.10 +2.50 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.28 -0.04 (-1.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.03 -0.06 (-1.39%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Over the Rainbow
Dorothy returns to a troubled Oz
BY TONY ALLISON

.....

Later that day, Dorothy ventures into the Emerald City and encounters a large, somber crowd gathered in front of the Wizard’s grand palace, waiting patiently for his monthly address. The Wizard does not appear, but out of the large loudspeakers on the palace walls, the familiar monotone voice of the Wizard of Oz begins to address the crowd. For some reason, he refers to himself as “The Chairman”.

“Economic activity appears to be leveling out in our fair land, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good. My “cash for broomsticks” program has brought new vigor to the economy.

We have to attack both the original shortfall and make sure we fund whatever new initiatives come from our political leadership ... It’s not adequate to be strictly revenue neutral because there’s much more to be done.

Have no doubt that inflation will be well-contained and growth is on the way. The Chairman has spoken!”

.....

“What’s happened to you?” asked a shocked Dorothy. “You’re no Great Wizard. You’re just an old man running a printing press!”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[happyslug]

28. Better be careful when using Oz, the author supported using the printing press

In the books Dorothy wore SILVER Shoes (It was changed to Ruby in the Movie for even in the late 1930s Silver was still tied in with the Democratic Party AND Printing Silver Dollars). In the late 1800s the US suffered from a huge period of deflation (as the GOP controlled Congress of the post-civil War era did all it could to return the Dollar to $20 to a ounce of Gold). The Silver movement was to print more silver Dollars, at that time the amount of Silver in a Dollar Coin was about 50 cents, so by minting Silver Dollars you created inflation. Thus Baum (the author of The Wizard of Oz), Dorthy and most of the Mid-West supported inflation to stop the deflation of the time period. Wall street fought this tooth and nail, but the fight ended when inflation raised its head with the opening of new Gold Mines in Australia and South Africa after 1896 (More Gold, More Gold Dollars so less actual value for the gold in the Gold Dollars so $20 an ounce of Gold in 1900 was less valuable then $20 an ounce of gold in 1896).

Just a comment that the Book was written to SUPPORT inflation not to fight it.

[Loge23]

30. Think I'll have a FL double -dip

From my vantage in FL, way down below, I don't see any sustained momentum towards any recovery.
We can consider the effects of a recovery in Northern states which may or may not allow recent retirees to purchase (at sharp discounts) property in FL - thereby creating increased demand for goods and services.
But if inflation takes hold, retirees will probably hold tight to what they have. Factor in the decreased amount of retirees with generous pensions out there - along with a surplus of already built properties for sale - and you have a much different typical FL recovery scenario.
The state has always had pockets of ultra-rich surrounded by sprawl partially inhabited by those who service the rich. However with decreased opportunities in that sector and a flight away from FL by the wealthy, the secondary sector - a larger segment within the sprawl that services the employed - is drying up. Recently, the states population actually decreased. Florida is not a particularly good choice for raising a family right now.
Unemployment is at historically high levels already, property values are at historically low levels.
Tourism may help a little this winter, but by the return of summer (May, down here) we will most probably be looking at even less than we are now.
I see a bad moon rising. At least the weather will cool off soon!

other than that - Have a Great Day!

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

09:00 Case-Shiller Housing Price Index Jul
Briefing.com -14.50%
Consensus -14.20%
Prior -15.44%

09:00 Consumer Confidence Sep
Briefing.com 59.5
Consensus 57.0
Prior 54.1

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Dr.Phool]

32. Ooops. Consumer confidence lower than expected.

But, not as bad as it could have been.
-------------------------------------

NEW YORK -- Consumers' confidence in the economy fell in September as Americans' worries about job security offset any enthusiasm about the rally in the stock market.

The Conference Board said today that the Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 53.1, down from the revised 54.5 reading in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters were expecting a reading of 57.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers' current assessment of the economy, declined to 22.7 from 25.4. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' outlook over the next six months, dipped to 73.3 from 73.8 last month.

[Ghost Dog]

34. State Street Investor Confidence Index® also fell from 122.8 to 118.1

(Global). Down in US, Up elsewhere: http://www.statestreet.com/industry_insights/investor_confidence_index/ici_overview.html

[Ghost Dog]

33. Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose by Most Since 2005

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Home values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas climbed in July by the most in almost four years, a sign the housing slump that led to the worst recession in seven decades is abating.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 1.2 percent in July from the prior month, the biggest gain since October 2005, the group said today in New York. From a year earlier, values were down 13.3 percent, less than economists anticipated. Another report showed consumer confidence unexpectedly fell.

Foreclosure-driven price declines, low borrowing costs and government tax credits for first-time buyers have lifted home sales for much of this year, helping to slow the decline in prices. Stability in real-estate values and rising stock prices may help prop up spending as American consumers fret over mounting joblessness.

“The worst has passed,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We expect prices to bottom out around the middle of next year and then look for modest price appreciation for the next several years. There is still a tremendous oversupply of homes in most major markets.”

The New York-based Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure fell to 53.1 in September from 54.5 the prior month, the private research group said today, amid growing concern over the lack of jobs. The gauge was projected to increase to 57, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1rwpx5RvEFg

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers near $67 in Asia as stocks rebound

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $67 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as regional stock markets rebounded and investors awaited a slew of data on the U.S. economy.

Benchmark crude for November deliver was up 14 cents at $66.98 by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 82 cents Monday to settle at $66.84.

.....

In the U.S., the most closely watched indicator this week will be the Labor Department's monthly jobs report on Friday. Reports also are due out on home prices, manufacturing, consumer confidence, construction spending and factory orders.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 0.55 cent to $1.69 a gallon. Gasoline for October delivery was steady at $1.63 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Gas dips below $2.50 for first time in 2 months

The average retail price for gasoline dipped below $2.50 a gallon for the first time in two months Monday as swelling oil supplies and slumping demand overshadowed even a fire at a major U.S. refinery.

.....

Gasoline demand is so weak that even "a material disruption to supply to one of the largest markets in the world barely registered with the speculators on the NYMEX," Schork wrote.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide was $2.499, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Monday. That's $1.13 below what drivers were paying at this time last year.

.....

Gasoline for October delivery on Nymex rose 1.75 cents to settle at $1.638 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090928/ap_on_bi_ge/us_oil_prices

[Demeter]

20. $2.29 Saturday

with my 5 cent weekend discount for loyal customers.

[CatholicEdHead]

26. Summer is over for most of the country

people are driving less, demand is allowing prices to drop.

[Ghost Dog]

8. World stocks hold firm

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks edged higher while the dollar steadied on Tuesday as BNP Paribas' move to pay back state financial support and growing corporate takeover activity bolstered confidence about economic recovery.

The yen slipped from the previous day's 8-month high versus the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he would not rule out taking action if currency moves were irregular.

Shares of BNP Paribas, France's biggest bank by market capitalization, rose 3 percent (Paris:BNPP.PA - News) after it launched a capital increase for 4.3 billion euros as part of its move to reimburse the French state early. Its move follows similar paybacks from UBS, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley.

...

MSCI world equity index rose 0.15 percent.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index (^FTEU3 - News) of leading European shares fell 0.15 percent, however, as weaker oil prices weighed on commodity shares and investors grew nervous about buying more given a recent rally and sharp lurch higher on Monday.

...

Emerging stocks (^MSCIEF - News) rose more than 1 percent.

/... http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/090929/business_us_markets_global.html?.v=3

[ozymandius]

5. US income gap widens as poor take hit in recession

WASHINGTON – The recession has hit middle-income and poor families hardest, widening the economic gap between the richest and poorest Americans as rippling job layoffs ravaged household budgets.

The wealthiest 10 percent of Americans — those making more than $138,000 each year — earned 11.4 times the roughly $12,000 made by those living near or below the poverty line in 2008, according to newly released census figures. That ratio was an increase from 11.2 in 2007 and the previous high of 11.22 in 2003.

Household income declined across all groups, but at sharper percentage levels for middle-income and poor Americans. Median income fell last year from $52,163 to $50,303, wiping out a decade's worth of gains to hit the lowest level since 1997.

Poverty jumped sharply to 13.2 percent, an 11-year high.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090929/ap_on_go_ot/us_census_income_gap

---

If you have seen the film "30 Days" then it comes as no surprise that lower-end wage earners have not been able to get by for a really, really long time. The nature of the Depression, its duration and severity, has just brought the extreme circumstances of the nation's poor into focus.

[Tansy_Gold]

19. I find this difficult to believe

I've seen no evidence whatsoever of this.

Wall Street is doing just fine.

GDP is up.

Everyone I know thinks the economy is doing just fine except for those who don't but that's Obama's fault.

Now can I get a job on Faux?





Tansy Gold, who knows people who don't believe it

[ozymandius]

6. Halloween spenders still spooked this year

SEATTLE (Reuters) – The economy is still spooking shoppers.

U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $56.31 on Halloween this year, down from $66.54 in 2008, according to a National Retail Federation survey.
Moreover, only 62.1 percent of those surveyed said they expected to celebrate the holiday this year, compared with 64.5 percent last year.

Economic hurdles and the turmoil in financial markets has made consumers mindful of spending. Last year's holiday season was the worst in nearly 40 years by some measures and early forecasts for the 2009 holiday season call for sales to be anywhere from up 2 percent to down 1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090929/us_nm/us_nrf_halloween

[ozymandius]

7. HK shares recover from three-wk low; China slips

ONG KONG/SHANGHAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares
rebounded from a three-week low on Tuesday, their biggest one-day
percentage gain in more than a week, as investors scooped up
shares of oversold stocks including banks and telecoms on an
overnight rally on Wall Street.

Brokers said the expiration of futures contracts also boosted
heavyweights such as HSBC (0005.HK), as investors with long
positions sought to prop up the market.

The benchmark index .HSI rose 2.06 percent, or 424.76
points, to 21,013.17, snapping three straight days of losses and
posting its biggest one-day percentage rise since Sept. 17.
Turnover was HK$49.5 billion ($6.39 billion), compared with
Monday's HK$50.9 billion.

The China Enterprises Index .HSCE of top locally listed
mainland Chinese stocks was up 2.01 percent at 11,988.37.

The Hang Seng index, which touched a year high two weeks ago,
has climbed 14 percent since the start of July.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSHKG34256820090929

[Ghost Dog]

9. Nikkei rises 0.9 pct on exporters, eyes on yen

TOKYO, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average rose 0.9 percent on Tuesday, with exporters such as Kyocera Corp (6971.T) climbing after the yen pulled back from an eight-month high against the dollar.

The benchmark Nikkei .N225 gained 90.68 points to 10,100.20. The index slid 2.5 percent the previous day to mark its lowest close since July 24.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT32883520090929?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

10. PG&E, Duke Energy Walkouts Show U.S. Business Split on Climate

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- PG&E Corp. quit the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Nike Inc. and Johnson & Johnson criticized the group for its stance. Duke Energy Corp. resigned from the National Association of Manufacturers.

Climate-change legislation is splitting the U.S. business community as few initiatives have in recent years. Groups such as the Chamber of Commerce, more accustomed to tangling with unions and environmentalists, find themselves facing off with prominent members who are defecting or joining new organizations to promote and shape legislation.

The chamber and the manufacturers’ association oppose President Barack Obama’s effort to win passage of a “cap-and- trade” system that would limit carbon emissions to curb global warming. The groups say the proposal amounts to a tax that would cripple the economy. The chamber says the science used to document global warming should be re-examined.

.....

Twenty-five companies, including General Electric Co.,Caterpillar Inc. and Dow Chemical Co., have joined with environmental groups in the U.S. Climate Action Partnership to promote cap-and-trade legislation. Most of the companies remain members of business associations that oppose the measure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOPe20kE6Oy4

[Demeter]

37. Divide and Conquer, I Always Say!

[ozymandius]

11. Unemployment Confronts Obama Rhetoric With Chronic Joblessness

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Full employment ain’t what it used to be.

Economists since the mid-1990s have reckoned that full employment was equivalent to about a 5 percent unemployment rate, taking into account the time required to switch jobs. Now Nobel Prize winner Edmund Phelps and Pacific Investment Management Co. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian say the fallout from the deepest recession in more than five decades is driving the so-called natural rate higher, perhaps to 7 percent.

.....

Government data to be released Oct. 2 will probably show that unemployment rose to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September as companies pared payrolls by 180,000, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

.....

Kasman ties an increase in the full-employment rate to the permanent destruction of hundreds of thousands of jobs in industries from housing to finance.

Since the nadir of the last recession in November 2001, the U.S. has lost 839,000 jobs in the private sector, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the first time that’s happened over the course of a business cycle since 1980-82. Manufacturing and construction were particularly hard hit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aDx_Srx0Sv8Q

[tclambert]

16. Remember to add 1,000,000 per year you need to keep up with population growth.

The 839,000 decrease since 2001 is the tip of the iceberg. Since then, the number of available workers looking for jobs has increased by close to 8 million.

[Demeter]

21. I'm Inclined to State There's Nothing "Normal" About Unemplyment

but maybe I'm just a liberal.

[ozymandius]

12. Why Does Bloomberg Keep Getting the FDIC Story WRONG?

Chris Whalen UNLOADS:

Jonathan Weil of Bloomberg News regarding the FDIC:

FDIC Is Broke, Taxpayers at Risk, Bair Muses: Jonathan Weil

The thrust of the piece is that “FDIC’s insurance fund is going broke, and Sheila Bair is wondering aloud about how to replenish it. This means one thing for taxpayers: Watch your wallets.”

This makes for sensational and salacious copy. Unfortunately, the entire thesis of the article is wrong.

.....

Let’s first look at the lead of the comment quoted above. Last week, in an open blast to the media taking Bloomberg to task, I said the following:

“Repeat after me: The FDIC does not run out of cash. The FDIC does not run out of cash. FDIC can confiscate all of the net assets and earnings of all FDIC insured banks. That is trillions in total liquidity. FDIC can borrow from Treasury, the Fed and even from FDIC insured banks. They can also issue notes.”

.....

So Weil’s comment that taxpayers should reach for their wallets is just scare mongering.

more at link...

[DemReadingDU]

14. Is the FDIC story wrong?

When you need to borrow, doesn't that indicate there isn't enough money?

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. I'll go with Weil here

FDIC can confiscate all of the net assets and earnings of all FDIC insured banks.

Unless that means GS it would push even more banks to the brink. If you're bored go to http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/
and follow the recent markdowns of failed banks. Their hit to the FDIC has been 2X/plus their reported "troubled assets."

Atlanta Georgia based banks look real bad. Just go down the list. These are their listed ratios, but if these are not already "marked to market" they are all most likely insolvent! http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/georgia/atlanta/
Troubled Asset Ratios
Atlanta Business Bank 68%
Atlantic Capital Bank Failed
Bank of Atlanta 40%
Capitol City Bank & Trust Company 60%
Citizens Trust Bank 51%
CornerstoneBank 66%
One Georgia Bank 80%

[DemReadingDU]

18. and the troubled banks, are really bad

How can the FDIC confiscate their net earnings?


List of banks with the highest levels of troubled loans. These 368 banks in the U.S. had troubled asset ratios of 90 or higher at the end of the latest quarter.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29619237/ns/business-us_business

List of the 400 biggest banks and their troubled loans. These are the 400 largest banks in the U.S., along with their troubled asset ratios for recent quarters. The banks are ranked by overall size, in assets, with the largest banks on top.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29619236/ns/business-us_business


I don't think the FDIC can shut them down, because the FDIC doesn't have the money

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Yup, and I'll bet the farm that

the 400 number is bullshit. If the banksters marked their assets to actual valuation, the number of "troubled" banks would skyrocket.

The drop in real-estate values coupled with the 2nd and 3rd mortgages taken before the bubble burst, equals a ton of overpriced listed "assets" :nuke: :scared:

[DemReadingDU]

23. My guess

I'm guessing that out of 8300 banks in the United States, maybe 400 are not troubled. And if the FDIC makes the banks pre-pay premiums for 3 years, the good banks will be underwater too.


9/28/09 FDIC expected to ask banks to prepay $36B in fees
Looking to shore up the diminishing fund that insures bank deposits, the FDIC may take the unprecedented step of requiring banks to prepay three years' worth of premiums: about $36 billion.
more...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090929/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fdic_shrinking_fund

[Robbien]

29. Appears Georgia banks recruit top GOP politicians to sit on their boards

Even the GOPers who sit on the House Banks and Banking Committee are members of Georgia Bank's BoD:

State Rep. Calvin Hill (R-Canton) sits on the board of Cherokee Bank, another Georgia lender recently hit with a cease and desist order. He also is on the House Banks and Banking Committee alongside Ehrhart. Hill, who ran for the legislature after he joined the bank’s board, said there’s no conflict of interest.

http://www.ajc.com/business/banks-draft-big-names-145968.html

Well if Hill says there's no conflict of interest, it must be true. Right? The other Banks and Banking Committee member, Ehrhart, sits on the board of the bank that failed this past weekend, the Georgian Bank which is going to cost the FDIC somewhere between one to two billion.


The above article also has this interesting comment:

Schwartz, the Atlanta banking lawyer, said board members like Cox must understand the role of regulators.

“Regulators are not umpires, they are your partners in this venture,” he said. “They work with you to try to assist in the profitable operation of your enterprise.”


Until they start bringing charges against some of these banksters it appears the banking culture in Georgia is not going to change.

[DemReadingDU]

13. Good toon today!

I would also add Freddie and Fannie

[tclambert]

15. "Too big to jail!"

Love it.

"They have neither souls to save, nor bodies to incarcerate."

[Demeter]

24. Happy Anniversary, Everybody! Get Ready to Party!

http://www.threegoodthings.net/index.php?/site/comments/september_29_the_biggest_stock_market_loss_in_history/

And NEXT month:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929

http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/Bierman.Crash

[DemReadingDU]

31. October 29, 1929

Growing up, I had thought that October 29, 1929, was the day of the crash. Little did I know, that the crash occurred over several days with much leading up to it. Will history repeat, or rhyme?

1929 Stock Market Crash
appx 9.5 minutes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQUcoSy1yMA

[UpInArms]

25. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.218 Change +0.299 (+0.38%)

Euro Extends Decline to Slip Below 20-Day SMA, British Pound Halts Four-Day Decline

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Extends_Decline_to_Slip_1254224033552.html

The British pound strengthened against the greenback as the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the U.K., with the exchange rate pushing back above 1.5900 after slipping to a low of 1.5826 during the European trade. The final GDP reading showed economic activity fell 0.6% in second-quarter amid an initial forecast for a 0.7% contraction, while the annual rate of growth slipped 5.5% from the previous year despite expectations for a 5.4% decline, and conditions are likely to improve throughout the second-half of the year as policy makers see the economy emerging from the worst recession since the post-war period.

Moreover, mortgage approvals in the U.K. slipped to 52.3K in August from a revised reading of 52.4K in the previous month, which topped expectations for a rise to 51.5K, while secured lending for homes increased GBP 1.0B after falling GBP 0.2B in the previous month. At the same time, consumer credit fell for the second month as households repaid GBP 0.3B in debt, which is the most since April 1993, and lending activity in U.K. is likely to remain subdued over the coming months as the banking system remains weak. Meanwhile, the CBI Distributive Trades survey showed the gauge for retail sales jumped to 3 in September from -16 in the previous month, with expected sales for October rising to 3 from -14 in September, and the rebound in household spending encourages an improved outlook for future growth as private-sector spending remains one of the biggest drivers of growth. Nevertheless, as the Bank of England holds borrowing costs at the record-low and commits GBP 127B in asset purchases to shore up the ailing economy, the extraordinary efforts should help to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation as the central bank expects economic activity to improve throughout the second-half of the year.

The euro weakened against the U.S. dollar for the second day, with the exchange rate slipping below the 20-Day moving average to reach a low of 1.4537, and the EUR/USD may continue to retrace the rally from earlier this month as policy makers continue to see a risk for a slower recovery. Nevertheless, the business climate indicator in the Euro-Zone increased to -2.07 from a revised reading of -2.18 in August, but fell short of expectations for a rise to -1.92, while economic confidence advanced to 82.8 in September to top expectations for a rise to 82.7. Moreover, consumer sentiment improve for the sixth month, with the index rising to -19.0 from -22 in August, while industrial confidence rose to -24 from -25, which was in-line with expectations.

U.S. dollar price action was mixed across the board, with the USD/JPY bouncing back from an eight-month low during the European trade, and the reserve currency may outperform going into the North American session as equity futures foreshadow a lower open for the U.S. markets. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is expected to improve for the second month in September, with economists forecasting the index to rise to a 15-month high of 57.0 from 54.1 in August, and the data is likely to encourage an improved outlook for future growth as households turn less pessimistic towards the economy. In addition, the S&P/Case-Shiller index may boost demands for the greenback as home prices are projected to fall at a slower pace in July, and housing conditions should continue to pick up over the coming months as the Federal Reserve pledges to hold the benchmark interest rate at the record-low for some time.



...more...

U.K. Recession Shallower Than Expected But Tight Credit Threatens Recovery

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/U_K__Recession_Shallower_Than_Expected_1254225916364.html



Fundamental Headlines

• FDIC Prepayment Likely for Banks – Wall Street Journal
• China Inc. Looks Homeward for Profits– Wall Street Journal
• BNP Paribas in €4.3bn capital-raising – Financial Times
• Emerging-Market Stocks Advance Most in a Week; European Shares Fluctuate – Bloomberg
• Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell at Slower Pace, Consumer Confidence Rose -Bloomberg

EURUSD– Euro-Zone retail sales contracted for a 16th month according to the PMI reading of 48.6. However, it was the highest the gauge has been since its last expansion as consumers have started to loosen their wallets as signs of an economic recovery mount. Positive growth in French consumption helped offset weakness in Germany which saw sales fall. Meanwhile, economic confidence in the region rose to its highest level in 12 months at 82.8 in September following a reading of 80.8 the month prior. Consumer confidence also rose to -19 from -22 which surpassed estimates of -21. Building optimism on the back of slower job losses has helped stabilize domestic growth, but the ECB remains cautious and is hesitant to end stimulus efforts until broader growth returns.

...more...

[Festivito]

27. Debt: 09/25/2009 11,770,698,157,074.20 (UP 18,341,268.07) (Fri)

(Down a quarter billion, up a quarter billion with change left over.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,460,436,135,722.72 + 4,310,262,021,351.48
DOWN 256,514,563.16 + UP 274,855,831.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,544,541 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,273.15.
A family of three owes $114,819.45. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 1,831,706,119.27.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,343,251,154.13.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,299,920,471.74.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 171 reports in 248 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.65B$ per report, 4.61B$/day so far.
There were 246 reports in 360 days of FY2009 averaging 7.10B$ per report, 4.85B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,213 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/25/2009 11,770,698,157,074.20 BHO (UP 1,143,821,108,161.12 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,745,973,260,161.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,143,821,108,161.12 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---

-15,624,694,517.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4080344&mesg_id=4080372

[Festivito]

38. Debt: 09/28/2009 11,771,450,693,745.00 (UP 752,536,670.80) (Mon)

()

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,459,662,870,571.13 + 4,311,787,823,173.87
DOWN 773,265,151.59 + UP 1,525,801,822.39

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,570,461 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,272.37.
A family of three owes $114,817.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 2,634,587,605.70.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,756,391,737.14.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,699,733,939.16.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 172 reports in 251 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 6.62B$ per report, 4.56B$/day so far.
There were 247 reports in 363 days of FY2009 averaging 7.07B$ per report, 4.81B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,210 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 17.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/28/2009 11,771,450,693,745.00 BHO (UP 1,144,573,644,831.92 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B, breakout on next two lines:
01-WJC 0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB 0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 1,746,725,796,832.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O, breakout on next two lines:
09GWB 0,602,152,152,000.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 34% of FY-Debt
09-BHO 1,144,573,644,831.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 66% of FY-Debt
FY2010 0,000,000,000,000.00 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon

-16,398,623,795.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4082114&mesg_id=4082271

[Ghost Dog]

35. Europe Economic Confidence Improves to 12-Month High

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- European confidence in the economic outlook increased to the highest in 12 months in September as the economy showed signs of rebounding from the worst recession in more than six decades.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16- nation euro region rose to 82.8, the highest since September 2008, from 80.8 in August, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That was the sixth straight monthly gain. Economists had projected an increase to 82.7, a Bloomberg survey showed.

...

ECB policy makers including Trichet have warned the recovery may face obstacles such as rising unemployment. European retail sales fell for a 16th month in September, Markit Economics said today, citing a survey of more than 1,000 executives. Europe’s jobless rate probably rose to 9.6 percent in August, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be a 10- year high. The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg will release the report on Oct. 1.

“We will likely see a massive increase in unemployment in Europe,” Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the group of euro-area finance chiefs, said today in Brussels. “Crises in the labor market tend to be felt after an economic crisis has stabilized.”

The commission noted in today’s report that the September increase in sentiment was “the smallest since the upturn started in April.” The August index reading was revised to 80.8 from the 80.6 reported on Aug. 28.

European households anticipate prices will decline more, today’s report showed. A gauge of consumers’ price expectations over the next 12 months held near a record low, rising to minus 14 in September from minus 16 in August, which was the lowest since the data were first compiled in 1990.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aDMzuEytlq9s

[Ghost Dog]

36. Europe shares close higher; BNP leads banks up

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - European shares closed higher on Tuesday with banks gaining after BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) raised capital to shake off government influence and with U.S. house prices rising further.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index rose 0.2 percent to a provisional close of 1,002.92 points.

...

"We remain cautious based on our view that the rally has been driven by government stimulus," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, strategist at Charles Stanley. "I'm not convinced that the market as the ability to maintain these kinds of levels. The data is beginning to roll over. Valuation metrics indicate that there is scope for a pronounced pullback. We've come too far, too fast."

Financials were standout gainers, with BNP Paribas up 1.8 percent as investors welcomed its move to launch a 4.3 billion euros ($6.3 billion) capital increase and pay back French state aid. Barclays (BARC.L), Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and UniCredit (CRDI.MI) rose between 1.3 and 2.2 percent.

On the downside, miners were out of favour as metal prices eased. BHP Billiton (BLT.L), Rio Tinto (RIO.L), Anglo American (AAL.L), Lonmin (LMI.L) and Xstrata (XTA.L) were down 0.6-3.2 percent.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLT32990420090929

[Demeter]

39. Is IT Just Me, Or Does It Look Like the Plug's Been Pulled on the PPT?