STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 1

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 1, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 30, 2009

Dow... 10,344.84 +34.92 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq... 2,144.60 +6.16 (+0.29%)
S&P 500... 1,095.63 +4.14 (+0.38%)
Gold future... 1,183 +7.50 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.19 +0.00 (+0.03%)
30-Year Bond 4.19 -0.01 (-0.31%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Honey, I Shrunk the Gold
BY ROB KIRBY

Back in June, the Ottawa Citizen Newspaper reported,

“that external auditors were investigating a discrepancy between the mint's 2008 financial accounting of its precious metals holdings and the physical stockpile at the plant on Sussex Drive in Ottawa.”

Interestingly, initial reports indicated that discrepancies involved silver and other precious metals. Those references have now been dropped.

This story is and always has been about GOLD.
.....

Questions Begging Answers?

1 - If the story being circulated by the Royal Canadian Mint is credible, why didn’t the auditors, Deloitte and Touche, find the cause of the problem? Does anyone really believe that the RCMP is more adept at ‘auditing’ than Deloitte and Touche?

2 - Regarding statements that “gold disappeared in chlorination baths”: Are we to believe that the Royal Canadian Mint has suddenly ‘lost its Mojo’ as the world’s foremost refiner of gold? At this rate, since 1969 – one might expect the Royal Canadian Mint would have lost over 20 metric tonnes of gold assuming they audit operations every year.

Whatever the real story is surrounding the disappearance of gold bullion at the Royal Canadian Mint, one cannot be sure. What we can be certain of is that the “official story” currently being fed in the mainstream media lacks credibility and smacks of a “cover-up”.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[skoalyman]

4. sounds like a pack rat infestation

2 legged ones lol morning ozy

[ozymandius]

6. G'morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Where did it all go? That is a burning question.

[InkAddict]

15. Here?

and there....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4166309#4166313

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 Construction Spending Oct
Briefing.com -0.7%
Consensus -0.5%
Prior 0.8%

10:00 ISM Index Nov
Briefing.com 54.0
Consensus 55.0
Prior 55.7

10:00 Pending Home Sales Oct
Briefing.com -3.0%
Consensus -1.0%
Prior 6.1%

14:00 Auto Sales Nov
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

14:00 Truck Sales Nov
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil above $77 as traders eye Iran tension

SINGAPORE – Oil prices bobbed above $77 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as Iran's detention of five British sailors threatened to raise tensions between a major crude exporter and Western powers.
.....

Iran is holding the five sailors after stopping their racing yacht in the Persian Gulf last week, the British government said Monday. The incident could heighten tensions between Iran, which is a major oil exporter, and world powers, including Britain, that are demanding a halt to its nuclear program.
......

In other Nymex trading, natural gas shed 5.9 cents to $4.789 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

This story is a bit dated as the five sailors have been released.

[ozymandius]

5. Long, bitter debate ahead for health care bill

....
The 10-year, nearly $1 trillion legislation includes a first-time requirement for most Americans to carry insurance, greatly expands the Medicaid federal-state insurance program for the poor, and would require insurers to cover any paying customer regardless of their medical history or condition.

.....

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that 31 million uninsured individuals would receive insurance if the bill were enacted, many of them assisted by federal subsidies. The legislation would be paid for through a combination of cuts in projected Medicare payments, a payroll tax on the wealthy and taxes on drug makers, medical device manufacturers, owners of high-cost insurance and others.
.....

It said that by 2016, premium prices for Americans working at large companies, about 70 percent of the under-65 population, would be between zero and 3 percent lower on average than would otherwise be the case.

At small companies, covering 13 percent of the under-65 population by 2016, the average premium would be between 1 percent higher to 2 percent lower on average.

CBO said that for individuals buying insurance on their own, 17 percent of the non-elderly population, premiums would rise by between 10 percent and 13 percent on average. But more than half that group is expected to receive federal subsidies that would result in premiums as much as 59 percent less costly on average than would happen under current law.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091201/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

[Demeter]

35. What Is There To Debate?

The bill sucks so badly that we as a nation of people would be better off if it died and all the corporate clones that wrote it got thrown out so some true public servants could make a better attempt.

[ozymandius]

7. More consumers late on auto loan payments in 3Q

NEW YORK – More people were late with their auto loan payments in the third quarter as job losses continued, but amid rising delinquencies there are positive signs for the economy in certain states.

The auto delinquency rate — the rate at which payments fell behind 60 days or more — edged up in the July-to-September quarter to 0.81 percent, from 0.80 in the same period last year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion.
.....

Car loan payments that are 60 days or more late are considered a precursor to default because of the difficulty consumers face in getting caught up. TransUnion culls its data from approximately 27 million individual credit files in its database.
.....

The small increase in auto delinquencies compared with 2008 also reflects the fact that loans are harder to get, because banks and finance companies have raised their lending standards, and consumers are looking for fewer loans as they tighten their belts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091201/ap_on_bi_ge/us_auto_loan_delinquencies

[SergeStorms]

19. I wondered if the government's.........

"cash for clunkers" program would create a situation like the mortgage fiasco. People running out to buy more car than they could afford, just to take advantage of the program. I really hope it doesn't, but these indications aren't good. We could soon see thousands of repossessed cars sitting on used car lots, and banks -once again- left holding the bag. :shrug:

[skoalyman]

41. to bad you cant buy half a car then buy the other half later lol

but then again it may not match

[ozymandius]

8. Dubai World in Talks on $26 Billion of Debt, Rest Is ‘Stable’

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai World began talks with banks to restructure $26 billion of debt, including $3.5 billion owed by property unit Nakheel, and said the remainder of its liabilities are on “a stable financial footing.”

Debt from subsidiaries including Infinity World Holding, Istithmar World and Ports & Free Zone World will be excluded from the negotiations, Dubai World, one of the emirate’s three main state-related holding companies, said in a statement. The cost to protect Dubai debt against default fell to the lowest since Nov. 25. Dubai’s main equity index dropped 6.6 percent.

Dubai is seeking to delay payments on less than half its $59 billion of liabilities, easing the potential damage to banks recovering from $1.7 trillion of losses and writedowns from the global crisis. ...

Banks have begun negotiating with Dubai World because they “are wary of any alternative including calling Dubai World in default,” said Hani Sabra, associate covering the Middle East for New York-based research firm Eurasia Group.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLNxx8E28sEg&pos=2

[Robbien]

33. Interesting that Istithmar World is excluded from debt negotiations

That is the unit which bought a huge amount of US commercial real estate.

Per
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/dubai-world-may-be-forced-to-check-out-of-us-hotels/#more-149285

Dubai World borrowed billions of dollars to acquire some of the most high-profile commercial developments in the United States in recent years, and it could be forced to sell them at a loss if the Persian Gulf conglomerate can’t restructure its debts.

. . .

One of Dubai World’s biggest units, Istithmar, spearheaded the holding company’s acquisition of the Mandarin Oriental, New York, for about $380 million in 2007, and a 50 percent stake in the Fontainebleau Miami Beach for about $375 million last year.

The Fontainebleau is struggling with financing woes of its own, stemming from a $660 million loan that was due in August. Contractors also claim the historic hotel owes them $60 million.

Dubai World also bought the CityCenter Casino & Resort in Las Vegas for about $5.4 billion. The development, a joint venture with MGM Mirage, is slated to open doors on Tuesday and officials have said Dubai World’s debt woes will not derail plans to finish the project.

----------------


Probably no one was willing to renegotiate US commercial real estate debt when negotiating Dubai RE debt. Banks viewing US real estate riskier than a snow ski slope in the Dubai desert?

[ozymandius]

9. Global Stocks Rally on BOJ Lending, China Data; Yen Declines

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks rose as the Bank of Japan introduced measures to revive lending and Asian economic data signaled a recovery. The yen fell the most in a month on speculation the central bank will intervene to curb gains.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed 1.2 percent, Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 1.6 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 futures advanced 0.5 percent. Nomura Holdings Inc. paced gains in finance companies as the Bank of Japan set aside 10 trillion yen ($115 billion) to make three-month loans at 0.1 percent interest. The Japanese currency slid 0.7 percent.

The Nikkei slumped 6.9 percent last month on concern that a strengthening local currency would erode export earnings just as Japan’s new government seeks to revive consumer spending in the world’s second-largest economy. Asian stocks outside Japan rallied after Credit Suisse Group AG joined Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in forecasting a 2010 rally, driven by earnings growth in China and South Korea.
.....

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 2.4 percent to 9,572 as Toyota Motor Corp. climbed on speculation policy makers discussed curbing yen strength. Toyota, the nation’s biggest carmaker, gained 2.3 percent to 3,520 yen and Nissan Motor Co., which gets 35 percent of its revenue from North America, rose 3 percent to 645 yen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUZXstSyBpIk&pos=1

[ozymandius]

10. Cyber Sales That Beat Estimates Unlikely to Ease Retail Decline

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Cyber Monday e-commerce sales in the U.S. that topped some analysts’ estimates are unlikely to change the outlook for a slowdown in retail spending this holiday shopping season.

Online purchases rose 11 percent through 6:30 p.m. New York time yesterday, according to Coremetrics, a San Mateo, California-based marketing company. That compared with forecasts for growth of as little as 5 percent.

While e-commerce orders are growing, they represent about 6 percent of total spending, according to Forrester Research Inc. That mutes the impact of Cyber Monday -- the first Monday after the kickoff of the holiday season -- which is set to beat Benchmark Co.’s growth estimate of 5 percent to 10 percent. The National Retail Federation has predicted a 1 percent decline in retail sales this holiday season.
.....

Mercent, which tracks sales directly linked to Internet advertising at 120 online merchants, said revenue on Cyber Monday rose 33 percent as of 1 p.m. New York time yesterday from a year earlier. Unlike Coremetrics, Mercent’s figures are based on revenue from consumer clicks on Internet ads that result in a sale.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoClz2uOA2kM

[ozymandius]

11. In Stock! Bad Holiday Sales Forecasts

One of the items that never seems to go out of style is the annual holiday sales forecast. Mix one part survey, one part “foot traffic” analysis, and an (un)healthy dollop of optimistic trade group spin, and the result is a cheery annual forecast.

As the WSJ noted, “A postmortem of seven leading forecasters’ holiday predictions since 2005 shows that whatever their methods, they tend to overestimate sales. Last year, following the economic crisis, even the most pessimistic forecast turned out to be optimistic.”

The problem is that it is typically Wrong. Every. Year.

More here at Ritholtz's place.

[ozymandius]

12. Mortgage giants quietly shop $250 billion in bad loans

by Mathew Padilla

This could be one of the biggest bad-debt sales in history — Paul Muolo of National Mortgage News writes:

Every so gingerly, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are beginning to contemplate selling their nonperforming mortgages — roughly $250 billion worth of single-family product — in the open market. But will it ever happen? And if so, who will step up to the plate with cash?

Investment bankers who play in the nonperforming loan market say the two have quietly begun talking to Wall Street firms and several hedge funds about how they might unload their bad assets. The buyers, I’m told, would presumably be hedge funds and investment partnerships with certain Wall Street trading desks — Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — acting as middlemen.
.....

One idea the two are said to be contemplating involves the securitization of NPLs. The GSEs would hire third-party vendors to gather broker price opinions on the properties collateralizing the mortgages. Fannie and Freddie might then issue a security backed by the NPLs based on the new BPO value. “If they could get 80% of the current BPO value they’d be ecstatic,” said one investment banker.

Mathew Padilla has a novel idea: — what about loan modifications?.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/12/01/mortgage-giants-quietly-shop-250-billion-in-bad-loans/21951/

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Here's the thing.

Playing devil's advocate or some such here.

I'm guessing that in some cases, the banks weren't the ones at fault for this shit, or not the only ones at any rate (pun intended). There were developers and ortgage brokers, and real estate agents, and they all got their cash up front, leaving the banks to try to collect. Now, granted, the banks should've had enough sense not to approve these crappy loans, and granted, their greed got the better of them.

But --- BUT --- if you were a bank and you'd watched the developers and the brokers get fat and get away with it, wouldn't you have some slight resentment and feel you were entitled to get your fair share, too?

Understand, please, that I'm not taking the banks' side on this, and of course there are all these other problems with tranches and bundles and CDSes and SDOs and so on. I'm just saying that the banks didn't really give the money to the homeowners. They lent money to the homeowners who then GAVE the money to the brokers and real estate agents and sellers and developers.

I sold my home in 2006 for $350K. I got that full $350K (less real estate commission and closing fees) and I used it to buy another house. I am now living in that house and it is paid for. I have no mortgage.

The people who bought my house borrowed that $350K from a bank. They gave it to me. They lived in the house less than a year and it was foreclosed on. The bank got the house back, the people departed for places unknown, and the house is now on the market again for $156K. The bank took a beating -- but I got mine!!!! Should I be required to pay back part of that $350K because I got out at the top of the market and didn't lose anything? Well, most would say no. But the bank got stuck with it. And I'm sure they're not happy about it.

The buyers, by the way, had -0- down, so in effect they didn't lose anything when they lost the house. I certainly didn't lose anything. Only the bank is stuck with it. I'm sure they're pissed, and I'm sure the banks on the whole are pissed and that's why they're being on the whole so stubborn about this.

BUT -- there's always a but -- they were the ones who had the money, they were the ones who took the risk. They should have known better.


Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

29. They hopped onto the bandwagon when it was already overloaded

They've not only blown out the tires but cracked the axle.

[ozymandius]

13. AIG shares tumble 15%

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Shares of AIG plunged nearly 15% Monday after an analyst hacked the insurance giant' price target 40% in a research note on worries about the company's loss reserves.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500)'s stock fell 14.71% to $28.40, after trading at session low of $28.04. The shares finished down almost 50% off their 52 week-high of $55.90.

In a research note, Bernstein Research analyst Todd Bault told investors he cut AIG's price target to $12 from $20 and said the insurer's "loss reserves are significantly deficient again, much sooner than we would have forecast two years ago."

Bault projected that AIG's loss reserves are short $11 billion, with $10 billion concentrated in "long-tailed" casualty lines: $1.8 billion in workers compensation, $5.6 billion in general liability and $2.6 billion in professional liability.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/30/news/companies/AIG_loss_reserves/index.htm

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 11/27/2009 12,008,650,382,616.48 (DOWN 803,862,217.31) (Fri)

(Overall debt down a small amount in a mix of public debt up, while government debt drops, after being up and down some for several days after one large day it went up. Almost back down to 12T$. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,615,594,035,286.33 + 4,393,056,347,330.15
UP 3,712,180,392.83 + DOWN 4,516,042,610.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,055,198 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,982.14.
A family of three owes $116,946.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,873,685,039.48.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,574,035,695.62.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,458,744,221.56.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 40 reports in 58 days of FY2010 averaging 2.47B$ per report, 1.70B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,150 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/27/2009 12,008,650,382,616.48 BHO (UP 1,381,773,333,703.40 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,098,821,379,104.70 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,621,893,161,607.17 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********

35,604,663,267.37 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4165325&mesg_id=4165346

[Festivito]

50. Debt: 11/30/2009 12,113,047,538,115.42 (UP 104,397,155,498.94) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,712,387,187,111.25 + 4,400,660,351,004.17
UP 96,793,151,824.92 + UP 7,604,003,674.02

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,081,118 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,317.72.
A family of three owes $117,953.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 10,997,825,487.72.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,331,883,658.48.
The average for the last 31 days would be 7,095,371,282.40.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 41 reports in 61 days of FY2010 averaging 4.96B$ per report, 3.33B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,147 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 20.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/30/2009 12,113,047,538,115.42 BHO (UP 1,486,170,489,202.34 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,203,218,534,603.70 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,215,979,756,235.26 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon

124,249,167,563.47 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4166493&mesg_id=4166534

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.530 Change -0.349 (-0.45%)

Gold Surges to $1200, Oil Extends Rebound

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/daily/2009-12-01-1039-Gold_Surges_to__1200__Oil.html

Commodities – Energy
Oil Extends Rebound, US Housing and Inventories Data Key Ahead

Crude Oil (WTI) $77.99 +$0.71 +0.92%
Oil broke above near-term resistance at the top of a minor falling channel and the door is now open to challenge the upper boundary of a the longer-term downward-slopping channel in place since late October near the $79 mark. The data docket offers plenty of opportunities for volatility with US Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending both set to decline in October. US builders are the world’s largest consumer of crude, so losses here may act to check recent moves to the upside. Inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute are also due for release. Risk-taking seems well supported with European stocks adding about 2% and US equity index futures firmly in positive territory.



Commodities – Metals
Gold Pushes to New Record High, Silver Diverges

Gold $1194.94 +$15.35 +1.30%
Gold has pushed to new highs, testing the all-important psychological barrier at $1200. However, relative strength studies are negatively divergent with recent highs, hinting at lackluster momentum behind the most recent push. Fundamentally, the risk appetite landscape is key going forward. To that effect, higher equities in Europe and gains on US equity index point higher for the momentum, though a hefty dollop of US economic data could change things rather quickly.

Silver $18.73 +$0.24 +1.30%
Silver has diverged from its more expensive counterpart as it hits record highs. Overall positioning looks as it did yesterday, with prices re-testing support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel set from early November. A reversal lower sees near-term support at $17.77. The broad outlook for risky assets and the US Dollar is central from a fundamental perspective.



...more...

US Dollar May Turn a Temporary Bounce into a Permanent Trend

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2009-11-27-2328-US_Dollar_May_Turn_a.html

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- Fear of another financial crisis spreading from Dubai reminds traders of the dollar’s value
- The United States’ recovery more measured than initially expected, confidence uncertain
- Does the dollar’s recent upswing have the makings of a true technical reversal?

The US dollar isn’t lacking for fundamental catalyst to drive price action next week; but to find a true sense of direction, the currency will have to gauge the importance of this past week’s credit scare. In Dubai’s proposal to delay repayment on its loans, the market is potentially faced with its largest sovereign default since the 2001/2002 when Argentina halted payments on its own debts. And, while the current situation does not have the same dire, complexities as its predecessor; the fragility of underlying sentiment and its overwhelming influence over the markets may make for a far more dramatic response from the dollar and nearly every other asset class. Any doubt to this driver’s influence over the US currency can be quickly reconciled with reference to the price action in the final 48 hours of trading this past week. Though encouraged by low liquidity, the dollar’s sharp rally is a clear sign that speculation is existing well-beyond its fundamental means. If risk appetite is indeed positioned for a major reversal, those same factors working against the greenback so far this year will only intensify its rebound.

In the week ahead, the key to gauging price action for the dollar (and likely the broader financial markets) will lie with the market’s ultimate response to the Dubai crisis. So far, this event has not actually escalated to a crisis and we have not seen the market’s true response to the threat. The incredible volatility through the end of last week was certainly leveraged by the fact that liquidity was thin due to the extended US holiday. When deeper pockets return to the market, it will be easier to establish true trends as there will be a source for momentum. Whether there is in fact a second round effect from the credit event also remains to be seen. Both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have lowered their ratings on the nation’s sovereign rating; but they have not yet deemed it a default. Furthermore, the details on exposure are still not fully understood; but considering the binding influence of risk appetite this year, a crisis for one region can quickly spread across the globe. Even if officials move in to avert a collapse; the mark may have already been made. The build in risk appetite has developed partly because there have been no tangible threats to stability. This incident reminds us that conditions are far from robust and banking sector defaults or some other lingering danger can easily topple the markets.

In contrast to the unpredictable nature of risk appetite, dollar traders will find it easier to benchmark the potential swells in volatility related to scheduled event risk – though there is no recent precedence for standard indicators contributing to the currency’s trend. For market-impact, Friday’s NPFs represents top event risk. The report’s influence is dampened by the fact that it is released on Friday as liquidity is draining into the weekend; but its status as a leading indicator for broader growth trends will ensure it nonetheless has its influence over forecasts for 4Q GDP as well as the time table for the inevitable policy shift from the Fed. For volatility, the most explosive scenario for price action would come from a downtick in the jobless rate and net increase in jobs (a sign that sustainable growth is that much closer). From the other listing, the Fed’s Beige Book and ISM activity reports are important. The Fed’s economic report will give a sense of the data they are basing policy on; but it will not likely add much to the updated forecasts the minutes offered this past week. The ISM services and manufacturing data is unique; but the real concern for sustainable growth is not factory activity but overall employment, wage growth and consumer spending.



...more...

[natrat]

25. i bet the daily fx take on the dollar is completly wrong as it was on gold 2 weeks ago

[UpInArms]

47. I, gave a "snarf" at that article

myself, natrat

:hi:

[UpInArms]

17. Arrest imminent in Florida Ponzi case: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5B00SU20091201?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

MIAMI (Reuters) - A disbarred Florida lawyer accused by the FBI of running a $1 billion investment scam is expected to be arrested Tuesday on racketeering conspiracy charges, The Miami Herald reported.

Scott Rothstein, who fled to Morocco in late October but returned to Florida in early November, is expected to appear before a federal magistrate in Fort Lauderdale to face the charges, the newspaper said in its online edition.

It cited unidentified sources familiar with the case.

Rothstein has not directly addressed the accusations, though he has said previously that he would do all in his power "to make sure that every single penny is recovered" for those who invested with him. He has not said how that would happen.

Prosecutors are using the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act to charge Rothstein and possibly others, the newspaper said. The conspiracy law is often used to prosecute members of organized crime, drug lords and others accused of running criminal enterprises.

Rothstein, who was disbarred last week by the Florida Supreme Court, is accused of mail, wire and bank fraud, along with money laundering, the Herald said. He faces at least 20 years in prison and forfeiture of tens of millions of dollars in illegal profits if convicted.

The FBI said in November that Rothstein, 47, was suspected of running an elaborate Ponzi scheme that bilked investors out of more than $1 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. SEC watchdog eyes insider trading probe

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5AT5O320091130?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The internal watchdog for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing whether enforcement staff "committed acts of negligence" in conducting an insider trading investigation.

Inspector General David Kotz's office said it is looking at a complaint that SEC staff had access to specific evidence that insider trading had occurred prior to staff closing the investigation.

The insider trading probe is one of 16 investigations Kotz's office is conducting, according to his semi-annual report to Congress that was released on Monday.

Kotz's office is also investigating allegations that an SEC enforcement attorney participated in an investigation even though a personal conflict of interest required his recusal from the probe.

The IG's office continues to probe allegations that two SEC enforcement lawyers repeatedly disclosed nonpublic information about agency investigations to a corrupt Federal Bureau of Investigations agent and a short seller. That agent and short seller were subsequently convicted of several criminal violations including fraud and conspiracy in connection with a stock short-sale operation, the report said.

An SEC spokesman declined to comment on Kotz's pending investigations, but said: "We look forward to receiving the inspector general's findings."

The semi-annual report comes after Kotz issued his damning report in September on how the SEC failed to catch Bernard Madoff's fraud of up to $65 billion, despite repeated tips and red flags raised by the agency's own inquiries.

...more...

[skoalyman]

42. We all know Bernard Madoff's gettin the probe everynight in prison

:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

20. Chavez threatens to nationalize Venezuelan banks

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091129/wl_nm/us_venezuela_banks_chavez_1

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Sunday he could nationalize private banks unless they comply with the law, adding he had "no problem with that because the banks don't want to extend credit to the poor."

In a broadcast from nationalized farmland in central Venezuela, he said: "To all the country's private bankers ... (I'm saying) he who slips up loses; I'll take over the bank, whatever its size."

"You want me to nationalize the banks?" he said during the broadcast of his weekly TV show "Alo Presidente."

"I have no problem with that because the banks don't want to extend credit to the poor, they don't comply, they don't want to comply with the bank's purpose for existence, and that is the law."

Chavez said the purpose of banks was not to enrich a small group of people but "should be to collect funds and savings to help aid the country's development by making loans, extending credits for housing."

In power for a decade, Chavez has nationalized broad swathes of the economy.

His banking nationalization threats on Sunday appeared to be broader in scope than his well-publicized warnings in recent years to nationalize Spanish-owned banks in Venezuela.

He repeatedly threatened to seize Spanish bank subsidiaries in Venezuela unless Spain's king apologized for telling him to "shut up" in November 2007 at a regional summit where Chavez branded a recent ex-Spanish prime minister a fascist.

But the only major private bank, foreign or Venezuelan, to fall into state hands under Chavez's rule was Spain's Banco Santander unit Banco de Venezuela, sold to Venezuela in July for $1.05 billion.

The government's last banking takeover was on November 20, when it seized four small banks, accounting for about 6 percent of Venezuela's deposits.

Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez then said the move stemmed from concerns about credit portfolios, problems explaining the source of funds and failure to comply with some obligations.

BANKERS NOT IN COMPLIANCE - CHAVEZ

Chavez spoke Sunday from the countryside behind a table strewn with a jumble of books, maps and documents, against the background of farmland growing black beans.

Addressing the banking theme, he said unnamed bankers "are not complying, they do not want to comply with the function for which a bank should exist (such as) that is in the law.

"This is occurring right now with a group of private banks, that's a demonstration that those private banking sectors don't want to learn, they don't want to accept that there is a constitution ... and that there are laws."

Venezuela's banking sector is dominated by 10 banks that control 70 percent of the total funds.

Chavez said he ordered the nation's chief prosecutor to investigate why a state bank, Banfoandes, deposited "a giant amount of resources in private banks."

"How is it that state resources, which belong to the people ... end up being placed in private banks?" he asked in his broadcast. "This is counterrevolutionary."

The four banks seized on November 20 were Banco Confederado, Banco Canarias, Banco Provivienda and bolivar Banco.

On Friday, a court acting on prosecutors' request banned travel abroad of 16 executives -- eight from Confederado, six from Provivienda and two from bolivar Banco.

Chavez said if it were up to him, he would have jailed the 16 executives due to flight risk. "They have (their own) light aircraft and private airports and (can) leave."

Chavez also criticized what he termed as excessive spending by state entities in the private medical sector.

"We have made a gift of millions and millions of bolivares this year to the bourgeoisie, which owns the private clinics, the great insurance companies," he said. "Enough already."

He said those funds should go directly to "the people."

FINALLY, CHANGE I CAN BELIEVE IN

[Roland99]

21. CNBC roundtable this morning on commercial real estate

Trump was even brought in at one point and it's apparently a great time to be buying up real estate at a discount and all the talk of a commercial real estate meltdown amounts to that quote attributed to Mark Twain: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."


The line for the ponies starts over here ---------->



Oh, and the regional banks are safe as they aren't part of the "institutional investments". Meaning Joe Business Owner whose tanning salon franchise went under and won't be repaying his startup loan (and many others of his ilk) are of no concern as strip malls empty out like a stadium after a missed FG loses the game.

[DemReadingDU]

23. What Recovery? U.S. Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse,” Howard Davidowitz Says

click link for video

12/1/09 What Recovery? U.S. Consumers Getting "Dramatically Worse,” Howard Davidowitz Says

Posted Dec 01, 2009 07:30am EST by Aaron Task

According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend were $41.2 billion, up slightly from a year ago, while about 195 million consumers shopped, up from 172 million last year.

Meanwhile, Coremetrics says the average online shopper spent 35% more on Black Friday vs. a year ago, while robust sales were predicted for Cyber Monday.

Against that backdrop, you might expect Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates to backtrack from some of the bearishness he's professed on Tech Ticker (and elsewhere) in the past year. But you'd be wrong.

"The consumer is in worse shape since I was here last" in August, Davidowitz says, citing the following:

* Unemployment has exploded: "We've lost a ton of jobs since I was here last," Davidowitz says, noting the "real" unemployment rate is 17.5%. "That's an astounding number."
* Housing continues to sink: "The consumers' biggest asset is down trillions" in value while "foreclosures are exploding" and a huge percentage have negative equity -- 23% according to CoreLogic.
* Record numbers of consumer bankruptcies: The American consumer has "never been further behind...never defaulted more" on mortgages, student loans, auto loans, and credit card bills, he says.
* Poverty on the Rise: One in eight Americans and one in four children are receiving food stamps, as The NYT reported this weekend.

"A lot of people were out on Black Friday -- you're always going to spend some money because it's Christmas," he says. " the consumer continues to get dramatically worse."

Davidowitz predicts "the noise will be taken out" about "strong" Black Friday sales in the coming weeks and a sobering reality will settle in: "People will look a stores closing and a rash of bankruptcies after Christmas. People will start to look at this and say ‘wow, this is terrible,'" he says.

click link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/381625/What-Recovery-U.S.-Consumers-Getting-%22Dramatically-Worse%E2%80%9D-Howard-Davidowitz-Says?tickers=RTH,XLP,XLY,WMT,TGT,HD,^DJI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[Tansy_Gold]

24. My take on this, for whatever it's worth

Sales on the first week-end may be up, but I would not be surprised if this was a flurry of buying based on emotions and "need" to get the low-priced deals before they run out.

I would not be at all surprised to find subsequent weeks showing dramatic declines from last year.

But what do I know????


Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

26. As Davidowitz said in the video, where do they get those sales figures?

They're just guestimates.

I think it is January when actual amounts from sales tax is reported. I'm thinking it is going to be a dismal shopping season.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. I'm sure they have a method for coming up with their numbers

I have no idea what that method is, but I'm sure they have one.

November sales would be reported in December, but it depends on how each state has their reporting set up. It could be that larger retailers have to report (and remit) more often than once a month. I don't know.

Then again, they could just be pulling numbers outta their noses. . . . or other orifices.



TG

[DemReadingDU]

48. Gallup poll: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints

12/1/09 Gallup Economic Weekly: Thanksgiving Week Disappoints

Economic confidence, job creation, and consumer spending flat compared to prior week
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's Thanksgiving week results tend to confirm fears of a weak holiday sales season as consumer spending was unchanged from the prior week, even though it included Friday and Saturday of the Black Friday weekend. At the same time, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index and its Job Creation Index were essentially unchanged from the prior week.

A rather gloomy consumer mood and consumer spending -- trailing last year's financial crisis-depressed comparables by 25% -- may not be unexpected, but are surely a disappointing way to start the Christmas sales season for the nation's retailers.

click for more text and charts...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124508/Gallup-Economic-Weekly-Thanksgiving-Week-Disappoints.aspx

[Roland99]

28. 14 reasons Obama's love of Wall Street will trigger the Great Depression 2

Obama's 'predictably irrational' economic policies
14 reasons Obama's love of Wall Street will trigger the Great Depression 2
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-leading-us-right-to-great-depression-2-2009-12-01


I'm afraid I must agree with him on many points.

Obama's sticking to the Reagan/Bush/Bush economic policy of protecting the wealthy. He's been in office nearly a year and what has been done to re-regulate anything that was dismantled in the last 30 years?

[Joe Chi Minh]

30. "Galling," says Grantham: When he came to America in 1964 "the ratio

of CEO pay to the average worker was ... between 20/1 and 40/1." That had "held for the previous 30 years. By 2006, this ratio had exploded to between 400/1 and 600/1 ... obscene."

The enormity of the theft from the country, as well as its people, is difficult to take it in.

[Demeter]

36. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Ingenting. Nitchevo.

Regulations? We don' need no stinkin' regulations!

[ozymandius]

46. I'm afraid I agree with him on many points, too.

Irrational.

That's a powerful word. Unfortunately it is a word that fits a few scenarios that spring to mind.

Scenario 1: The Federal government, with the Federal Reserve, supports the seventeen largest banks in the nation with loan terms so favorable that banks can actually negotiate the repayment amount downward. The banks, in return, hoard money. Customers of these institutions see no residual benefit from their essential guarantee of survival of the institution that refuses to help them restructure their financial obligations.

Scenario 2: The Federal government could have granted low interest loans and rebates to individuals and businesses at comparably favorable terms as those granted to the largest financial institutions. The citizenry would then have been able to avoid significant disruption to their lives while fulfilling their financial obligation, thus supporting the fortunes of the heavily leveraged financial institutions.

These scenarios are in no way a plan, mind you, but Scenario #2 does simplistically outline the plausible outcomes from working both letter and spirit of the laws that made such a lopsidedly favorable course of action available for the biggest banks.

[Robbien]

31. The Rich Are Making Huge Bets On Property Again

A Barclays report has found that affluent investors, with $800,000 or more to invest, plan to load up on property investments.

The reason is simple -- they expect property to outperform other asset classes. With 10-year treasury yields at 3.21% it seems like a decent bet in terms of property's potential price appreciation. Yet given the tax and maintenance liabilities of property, it doesn't seem such a sure thing.

Bloomberg: Twice as many people plan to raise their investment in commercial and residential property as intend to reduce it, the Barclays Wealth unit said in an e-mailed statement today. The richer the individual, the greater the proportion of wealth is placed in real estate, the survey found.

...

Real estate investment among wealthy individuals is set to rise to 30 percent of the average portfolio for the next few years from 28 percent now, according to the survey. That excludes properties used as a principal residence. Most rich people, other than the extremely wealthy, should have no more than 10 percent of their assets in property, said Dicks.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-rich-bet-property-will-outperform-stocks-and-bonds-2009-11


I guess the rich are just not satisfied with low returns the rest of us receive and expect to cash in on their expectations that the government will continue propping up RE values in perpetuity.

[Demeter]

37. Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me!

I feel so much smarter now that Bush and Reagan and Bush are out of the public limelight--things that I used to know are coming back to me!

That's the problem with the newspaper that replaced our Daily Snooze in Ann Arbor--it's so bad, I feel stupider after reading it. It's gossip and jabber and precious little factual information, and what little "news" there is, it's all "local", meaning the crooks could rob the nation blind (hmmm...wait a minute!) and nobody would know it by reading the twice-a-week Shopper's Gazette.

I've become a non-print reader. I do all my informational and entertainment reading online, unless one of my favorite authors publishes a new work. The library every week habit is gone--it died of too high gas prices, too little time and money. I don't buy books like I used to. And I prefer aggregator sites like DU over the online NYTimes and Washington Post, which I had once read through religiously. Of course, with WaPo shutting down all its national bureaus, the dumbing down of DC is complete and the bubble is sealed.

And as for all those Future Landlords--they better HOPE that Eminent Domain takes those turkeys off their hands, because the advice "Never invest in anything that eats or needs paint (or gets taxed)" will come back into force, forcefully.

[Robbien]

40. Speaking of print news

Our local weekly paper recently sent out a sample copy of the paper hoping to lasso new subscribers. I've been thinking about picking up a subscription in order support the local reporters but their sending out the free sample stopped that. The paper had no news. In over a hundred pages it had three news stories. Just three. And those so called news stories were, as you say, just fluff. The rest of the paper was filled with society news, recipes and advertisements disguised as news stories. Now why would I support that?

For local news thank the gods there is the news site ProgressIllinois. Best local Chicagoland site out there IMHO. No wonder Daley can sell off every single thing the county owns thus raising our taxes by outrageous amounts and still have the public's support. No one knows what is happening.

And of course, thank the goddesses for DU and especially SMW. Without it one would think that everyone is falling for this 'the recession is over' 'everything is coming up roses' bunch of bull the media keeps pushing at us. I feel bad for the folks who don't use internet news and just know that this economy sucks but believe they must be crazy because they are being told otherwise by everyone who has a microphone.

[Demeter]

43. I Think It's Part of that Vast, Right-Wing Conspiracy

except now I am beginning to think it's a Corporation Crony Conspiracy to castrate the public intellectually and informationally. Just too bad that the Internet came along, and enough people are vested in it who know how to dance rings around the Capitalists and who would rather die than let it go down in the US like it did in China.

[Robbien]

45. It was pretty funny seeing our talking heads poke fun

at Dubai's media over Dubai's non-reporting of the debt default.

Pot meet kettle.

[Roland99]

39. To quote Bono...

"Money, money, money, money, money, money, money, money....."

[Robbien]

32. COBRA subsidies expire today. Avg monthly premium will increase to about $1,100 from about $400

More Trouble For The Unemployed As COBRA Subsidies Expire

by Adam Doster on December 01, 2009 - 11:38am

December won't be kind to the millions of Americans still looking for work in this sluggish economy. After December 31, over 1 million workers will lose eligibility for the next tier of unemployment insurance benefits provided by the economic stimulus plan. And beginning today, 7 million unemployed individuals will see their health insurance premiums soar.

One central provision of the Obama administration's stimulus package was federal subsidies for COBRA health insurance coverage, the program that offers departing workers the chance to pay out-of-pocket for coverage under their previous employer's plan. Beginning in March, the stimulus plan covered 65 percent of unemployed workers' COBRA benefits. Today, those subsidies run out. "Business analyst" Phil Flynn noted the development on WFLD's Good Day Chicago this morning:

Sans a hefty subsidy, the COBRA rates will be out of reach for many of those 7 million workers lacking steady incomes. The organization Families USA reports that the average unemployed family will see premiums jump from $389 per month to more than $1,100. If you're subsisting on weekly unemployment checks, those insurance costs will amount to 82 percent of the average take-home income. That means the unemployed will either venture out into the treacherous private insurance market or drop their health coverage altogether.

The Senate is clearly interested in extending COBRA assistance, but will likely do so through its jobs bill, which won't even be debated until early next year. So far, it's unclear where the money will come from to pay for an extension or whether or not it would be retroactive. In other words, support won't be coming for at least a few months.

http://progressillinois.com/2009/12/1/more-trouble-unemployed

[Tansy_Gold]

44. I'm so glad my COBRA ran out two years ago.

I'm spared the shock of seeing it go from $350 to $1000 -- and that's for an individual with no children.

[DemReadingDU]

34. AmTrust Financial Files for Bankruptcy in Cleveland

12/1/09 AmTrust Financial Files for Bankruptcy in Cleveland

AmTrust Financial Corp., owner of the Cleveland-based AmTrust Bank that expanded rapidly into Florida and Arizona, filed for bankruptcy, blaming investments in home loans that lost value in the recession.

The 120-year-old bank, once known as Ohio Savings Bank, wasn’t included in the filing. The company listed $169.5 million in debt and more than $100 million in assets in a Chapter 11 petition filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Cleveland.

“In the past two years, the debtors have diligently attempted to survive the downturn in the economy,” AmTrust Chief Executive Officer Peter Goldberg said in court papers. “Deterioration in mortgage quality and availability slowed the pace of transactions and devalued homes.”

The bankrupt units include AmTrust Real Estate Investment, AmTrust Insurance Agency and AmTrust Properties. The company, with bankrupt and non bankruptcy units, had assets and debt of more than $11 billion each and about 1,700 employees, it said.

AmTrust yesterday sued about a dozen noteholders including Allstate Life Insurance Co. and Midland National Life Insurance Co., seeking the return of $11.8 million in payments made in the 90 days before the bankruptcy filing.

The defendants in the case, which was filed in the bankruptcy court, bought a total of $105 million in 5.78 percent senior notes dated Oct. 20, 2005, according to the complaint.

AmTrust was founded as Ohio Savings Bank in Cleveland in 1889 and expanded into Florida 100 years later under the AmTrust name. It entered Arizona in 2000.

Among Top 15

AmTrust, which changed its name from Ohio Savings Bank in 2007, is one of the top 15 home-loan originators in the U.S., according to its Web site. The bank invested heavily in single- family home loans, land acquisition, development and construction loans, court papers show.

The bank has been controlled by the Goldberg family since the early 1960s and the family currently owns 77 percent of its commons stock, according to the court filing. The holding company was formed in 1977.

Closely held AmTrust has 66 branches and more than 280,000 customers, Donna Winfield, a spokeswoman, said today in an e- mailed statement.

The case is In re AmTrust Financial Corp., 09-21323, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Northern District of Ohio (Cleveland).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3vPOaTMacTo&pos=7

[mullard12ax7]

38. War sells baby! Let's send more cannon fodder for da-machine!

More criminal contractors and mercs, more civilian killing, more bombers and jets, more fraudulent security clowns, more war propaganda talk shows on TV, more Pentagon dollars: the fcked up game of criminal capitalism continues unabated.

[Roland99]

49. FYI, Off-Topic... new DU Folding@Home thread >>>>>>>>>

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7130999