STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 3

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 3, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 2, 2009

Dow... 10,452.68 -18.90 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq... 2,185.03 +9.22 (+0.42%)
S&P 500... 1,109.24 +0.38 (+0.03%)
Gold future... 1,213 +12.80 (+1.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.31 +0.03 (+0.79%)
30-Year Bond 4.25 -0.02 (-0.44%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

2010:
A Question of Follow-Through & Sustainability
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

We look to be heading into 2010 with one of the most dramatic rallies after a bear market in over 100 years as the S&P 500 is up more than 65% off the March lows and is up roughly 23% year-to-date. With such a dramatic rally in the stock market one would expect to see a vibrant economic recovery ahead given that the stock market acts as a discounting mechanism. While the economy has certainly recovered from the depths of the “Great Recession” over the course of the last six to nine months, can we expect the economy to deliver what the stock market has already priced in? The big question for 2010 seems to be whether there will be follow-through in terms of economic activity and will the improvement be sustainable.

There is no doubt that the economy has improved and that the worst of the recession is behind us. At the apex of the economic decline all 50 states were showing negative economic growth according to the Philadelphia Fed. This was a new record as the previous record was seen during the 1982 recession with a reading of 40 states. No recession in the last quarter century saw the entire US contracting simultaneously with the “Great Recession” being the first example. Over the course of the year more and more states are expanding so that only 27 states (54%) are contracting while 23 states (46%) are expanding. Along with the improved state readings is a decline in initial jobless claims as employment layoffs moderate from the highs seen earlier in the year. Congruent with the state economic activity improvement seen in the Philly Fed survey is the US recovery status map from Moody’s Analytics that shows 11 states expanding and only one state (Nevada) still in recession.
.....

Both the bulls and the bears can make their case for the stock market to either hold up or sell off respectively, but it appears the consumer has already made it’s case with the consumer presently still in the caves with the bears. Given the dramatic recovery in the stock market this year you would think that consumer confidence levels would be much improved. However, this is far from the case as confidence levels are still below even the lows of the depth of the last recession, no doubt affected by the horrid jobs market. Like the consumer confidence levels the employment diffusion index has recovered but remains below the lows of the last recession as only 31% of industries are hiring while 69% are still shedding jobs.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[bread_and_roses]

20. "There is no doubt that the economy has improved " - EXCUSE ME????

What? There's "doubt" here, for sure. Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. The real work of the world - taking care of children, elders, the environment, infrastructure, mental health, physical health, our food supply, our green energy needs, our routine need for adequate staff in local government to handle our car registrations and city water bills and and and and....our staffing for the developmentally disabled, for the mentally ill, for education ... all crippled or at threat of being crippled from their already inadequate levels by a "recovery" that is leaving people without jobs, states and localities without tax revenue ... no doubt about recovery? From down here, the question is what recovery?

[Tansy_Gold]

24. WHAT SHE SAID ONLY DOUBLE FOR ME!!!!! n/t

[DemReadingDU]

44. Triple for me!!! n/t

[MilesColtrane]

33. "Given the dramatic recovery in the stock market this year you would think that consumer confidence

would be much improved."

This guy is a financial analyst?

I'm just a dumb musician, but I would think consumer confidence would be tied more to employment figures rather than market performance.

It doesn't matter what your retirement account looks like if you're not getting a paycheck every week.

Besides, 85% of all equities are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans, those who, due to their assets, are unlikely to have flagging confidence.

[Dr.Phool]

35. I think he learned from Cramer and Dykstra.

Swallow some bullshit, stick head up ass, and proclaim "Everything looks fine from here".

[bread_and_roses]

36. "85% of all equities are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans"

A salient fact one doesn't hear from the mainstream sources either touting or mindlessly parroting (as the MSM does) this so-called "jobless recovery."

They could add, if they were honest and actually did any issue reporting, that that the upper 1% of Americans own roughly more financial wealth than the bottom 90% combined - don't quote me exactly, I'm too busy to look it up but that's a rough paraphrase. However one counts it, and weather my memory on that figure is correct or not, there is no disputing that the gaping, yawning chasm of inequality in this country just keeps getting wider and wider, and nothing that has been done in the last year, as best I remember, has one damn bit of impact on it. It's a recipe for disaster.

[MilesColtrane]

38. I actually couldn't find a recent number on that.

That was from 1998.

I wouldn't be surprised if the figure is closer to 95% now.

[DemReadingDU]

45. and really, isn't all that feel-good news to reassure the wealthy?

that they feel their investments are safe and growing more wealthy? It works for my wealthy siblings. They have no clue the economy is still hanging by a thread.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 11/28
Briefing.com 500K
Consensus 480K
Prior 466K

08:30 Continuing Claims 11/21
Briefing.com 5550K
Consensus 5400K
Prior 5423K

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q3
Briefing.com 8.5%
Consensus 8.5%
Prior 9.5%

08:30 Employment Cost Index Q3
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus NA
Prior 0.4%

10:00 ISM Services Nov
Briefing.com 50.7
Consensus 51.5
Prior 50.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

22. Initial Claims @ 457,000 - last wk rev'd down 4k -U.S. productivity rises 4% in past year

U.S. productivity rises 4% in past year
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S 3Q unit labor costs revised to -2.5% vs. -5.2%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. 3Q productivity revised down to 8.1% vs. 9.5%
8:30 a.m. Today

Initial jobless claims lowest since Sept. 2008
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. total jobless claims rise to 9.6 million
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. continuing claims rise 28,000 to 5.47 million
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 5,000 to 457,000
8:30 a.m. Today

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hangs below $77 after signs of weak US demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hung below $77 a barrel Thursday in Asia as investors mulled unexpected jumps in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies as signs that demand remains sluggish.
.....

The contract dropped $1.77 to settle at $76.60 on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration said oil supplies grew unexpectedly last week.

Crude stocks rose 2.1 million barrels while analysts had expected a drop of 1.3 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Gasoline inventories jumped by 4 million barrels, more than the 900,000 analysts expected.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.71 cent to $2.0435 and gasoline gained 1.06 cents to $2.0034. Natural gas climbed 2.9 cents to $4.78 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Goldman Sachs meets investors about exec pay: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) is meeting with major investors in an effort to head off a possible investor backlash over its record bonuses, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The private discussions are a first for Goldman, whose employees are on track to earn an average of $700,000 apiece this year. The meetings began in October and are expected to last several more weeks, the Journal reported, citing shareholders and company officials. In many cases, Goldman President and Chief Operating Officer Gary Cohn or Chief Financial Officer David Viniar have attended these meetings.
.....

Five shareholder proposals have been submitted to Goldman, including three related to compensation. One proposal considered likeliest to pass gives shareholders a nonbinding vote on executive pay and requires Goldman to disclose more details about how executives are paid, the Journal said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091203/bs_nm/us_goldman_1

[tclambert]

13. Well, at least Goldman manufactures a lot of useful products

from houses and airplanes to automobiles to appliances and electronics. Where would we be without the tangible stuff Goldman Sachs builds? Wait, what? Oh, they don't do any of that? So, what do they do? Oh, they move money from point A to point B and siphon off a piece of the action each time. Effectively, they tax every financial transaction they facilitate.

Hmmm. You know, that tax metaphor makes me think maybe someone should complain about how much they tax the rest of us. You know how certain people complain that taxes hurt the economy? Why limit that thinking to government taxation? Why not include the taxes private companies impose on us? Maybe there should be limits on how much they can tax, like, oh, a limit on interest rates banks can charge. We could could call them usury laws, or loan-sharking laws. But this time these laws would aim to reduce the taxes we pay to private companies.

Yeah, I'm liking this idea.

[Tansy_Gold]

15. +1 I like your idea too n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. Excellent!! n/t

[Hugin]

19. I hate to rain on your cereal, dude...

But, a Congress on the verge of legally compelling us to buy private health insurance isn't likely to do anything to tip the Wall Street watermelon cart.

Oh, and then there's that single payoff-ee regulatory agency they've been babbling about... Ha! Wall Street gets single payer and We The Peons get... Well, the shaft.

Nice thought anyway, man. :thumbsup:

[Tansy_Gold]

25. Man, Hugin, you're a real party pooper, y'know that?

Oh, will my post get pulled for callin' you a name? Is party-pooper forbidden by the DU rules?

Okay, well, how 'bout we put a TAX on every single one of those transactions. Say 10% right off the top, just like sales tax. profit or loss, don't matter. every transaction.



But I didn't think this through so if there's loopholes galore blame my general contrariness and lack of sleep and overwhelmation by frustration.





Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

27. You Wanna Do What Brazil and Venezuela Do?

You socialist! I'm all for it, myself. Andput back the death taxes, the progressive income taxes, the corporate taxes, tarriffs, and all the other holes in the Ship of State should be plugged....

[Demeter]

26. So Nice to Know that Our Master Has Some Masters to Answer To

I think they should Pink-Slip Blankfein on the basis that he's an idiot.

But then, it would set a precedent that would severely impact the economic elite....and Madoff would be the last of his kind.

[ozymandius]

5. AARP backs Democrats in Senate health care fight

WASHINGTON – With a Senate showdown looming, the politically potent AARP rode to the rescue of Democrats on Wednesday, supporting $460 billion in Medicare cuts to help pay for landmark health care legislation.
.....

"Most importantly, the legislation does not reduce any guaranteed Medicare benefits," A. Barry Rand, the AARP's CEO, said in a letter to senators.
.....

Chief among them is a call by liberals for the government to sell insurance in competition with private industry. The legislation on the floor permits that, subject to approval from individual states. But an unknown number of moderate and conservative Democrats have demanded changes as the price for their support on the legislation.

AARP has played an influential role all year on health care, working with the Obama administration as well as Democratic leaders to help pass legislation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091203/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

[Demeter]

28. Instead of cutting Medicare, Why Not Prosecute Medicare FRAUD?

The doctors helping people shouldn't be punished--just the health companies that are helping themselves.

But then, it appears that the US doesn't prosecute fraud any more--not in elections, not in govt. contracts, not in banking and finance, no way, no how.

[ozymandius]

6. GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks race to 14-mth high after BofA

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - World stocks hit a fresh 14-month high on Thursday while oil also rose after Bank of America said it would repay $45 billion of taxpayer bailout funds in a move which injected optimism into the financial sector.

The low-yielding dollar came under pressure, sending dollar-priced gold to record highs above $1,225 an ounce, as BofA news encouraged investors to chase equities, commodities and other risky assets.

Bank of America (BAC.N) has launched the sale of $18.8 billion worth of securities, which are expected to be priced on Dec. 7, according to a term sheet obtained by Reuters.
.....

World stocks have erased all the losses suffered after Dubai announced a standstill last week on billions of dollars of debt held by its conglomerate Dubai World, with investors shifting focus back to risk-friendly expectations that the world's central banks would keep interest rates low for some time.

http://www.reuters.com/article/asianCurrencyNews/idUSGEE5B20LW20091203

[ozymandius]

7. Asian Stocks Climb to 15-Month High on Yen, Fed Beige Book

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to a 15-month high, as a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters and the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy improved.
.....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7 percent to 121.87 as of 7:32 p.m. in Tokyo, the highest level since Sept. 1, 2008. It has gained 7.1 percent this week, set for its steepest weekly gain since the period ended May 8. The gauge climbed 73 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on signs government stimulus measures are reviving global growth.
.....

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 3.8 percent, its steepest gain since May 7 and the biggest advance in the Asia- Pacific region today. Mitsubishi Motors Corp. soared 14 percent on speculation PSA Peugeot Citroen may buy a stake in the carmaker.
.....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s gain this week has come amid optimism the region’s companies will be sheltered from losses related to Dubai World, which last week sought to restructure its debt. Dubai World is seeking to delay payments on less than half its liabilities, easing the potential damage to banks recovering from $1.7 trillion of losses and writedowns from the global crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=ayDMPn_RFHx0

[ozymandius]

8. Progress on “No on Bernanke,” Including Sanders Putting Hold on Confirmation

.....
First, Bernie Sanders of Vermont said he is putting a hold on Bernanke’s confirmation. A hold (in lay terms) is a threat to filibuster. This is actually pretty serious and seldom done. It takes 60 votes to beat one back, and there are enough procedural roadblocks that a filibustering Senator can throw so that it holds up Senate business for a few days, even if it is ultimately unsuccessful. And by current tallies, there are a few Senators on the right who are also vehemently opposed to Bernanke and would support this move.

Now so far, this is merely an obstacle to reappointment, but this is still much more serious opposition than anyone would have expected even a week ago.
.....

This says that the calls to Senators are making a difference. Remember, hardly anyone ever bothers voice opposition to this sort of confirmation. And it’s important to recognize that the symbolism extends beyond the question of Bernanke’s continued tenure. This is a shot across the bow as far as Wall Street friendly policies are concerned. It puts the Congress and Administration on notice that the public is aware of how badly they have been had and are continuing to be bled on the financial front and sees the conduct of economic policy as important.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/progress-on-no-on-bernanke-including-sanders-putting-hold-on-confirmation.html

[MilesColtrane]

34. My email to Bernie Sanders:

Dear Senator Sanders,

I applaud your attempt to block the reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Mr. Bernanke sat by idly as the warning signs of economic calamity arose.

He was afraid to act because it would upset the obscene amount of profits being generated by monopolistic financial corporations at the expense of middle class Americans.

He reacted only after it became obvious that a complete collapse of the national economy was immanent.

His solution was a taxpayer funded bailout that propped up the biggest offenders without addressing the the root cause of the problem.

It's high time that President Obama kicked him to the curb and replaced him with someone who will be more responsive to the concerns of the average American, and who will begin to operate the Reserve with a new degree of transparency.

If you decide to force the Senate to invoke cloture to proceed to a vote on Mr. Bernanke's appointment, that would be just fine with me.

Thank you.

[ozymandius]

9. Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems

This would be New Normal with extreme prejudice. Bad for Democratic incumbents in the 2010 congressional midterms, but it should make the White House political team nervous as well for 2012. If Goldman Sachs is right, of course. Here is the firm’s 2011 forecast:

The key features of our 2011 outlook: (1) a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011; (2) a peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10¾%; (3) extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during 2011; and (4) a continuation of the Fed’s (near) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2011.

That said we see risks that could upset these markets. On the one hand, we might be underestimating the vigor of the economic recovery, and therefore the pressures for Fed tightening. In addition, surging asset prices and worries about a “bubble” could prompt Fed officials to tighten before such a move seems warranted on real-economy grounds. On the other hand, the economy (and the markets) could struggle under the weight of credit restraint for small businesses, weakness in commercial real estate markets, or fiscal tightening, especially by state and local governments.

The implications? I hardly know where to begin: a) with unemployment rising all next year, a GOP blowout in 2010; b) certainly more job creation packages; c) no capandtrade; d) increased anti-Wall Street/Fed sentiment; e) third party prez candidate in 2012; an Obama challenger in 2012 (Dean?).

a bit more here

[ozymandius]

10. "Worrisome Thoughts on the Way to the Jobs Summit" by Robert Reich

.....
Other less expensive ideas include a new jobs tax credit for any firm creating net new jobs. Lending directed at small businesses, which are having a hard time getting credit but are responsible for most new jobs. A one-year payroll tax holiday on the first, say, $20,000 of income – which would quickly put money into peoples’ pockets and simultaneously make it cheaper for businesses to hire because they pay half the payroll tax. And a WPA style program that hires jobless workers directly to, say, insulate homes.

Most of this would be helpful. Together, they might take the official unemployment rate down a notch or two.

But here's the real worry. The basic assumption that jobs will eventually return when the economy recovers is probably wrong. Some jobs will come back, of course. But the reality that no one wants to talk about is a structural change in the economy that's been going on for years but which the Great Recession has dramatically accelerated.
.....

This means many Americans won’t be rehired unless they’re willing to settle for much lower wages and benefits. Today's official unemployment numbers hide the extent to which Americans are already on this path. Among those with jobs, a large and growing number have had to accept lower pay as a condition for keeping them. Or they've lost higher-paying jobs and are now in a new ones that pays less.

Yet reducing unemployment by cutting wages merely exchanges one problem for another. We'll get jobs back but have more people working for pay they consider inadequate, more working families at or near poverty, and widening inequality. The nation will also have a harder time restarting the economy because so many more Americans lack the money they need to buy all the goods and services the economy can produce.

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2009/12/worrisome-thoughts-on-way-to-jobs.html

[Tansy_Gold]

16. Do I hear an echo around here?

"This means many Americans won’t be rehired unless they’re willing to settle for much lower wages and benefits. Today's official unemployment numbers hide the extent to which Americans are already on this path. Among those with jobs, a large and growing number have had to accept lower pay as a condition for keeping them. Or they've lost higher-paying jobs and are now in a new ones that pays less."


ISN'T THIS WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY????????????????????????????????????????????????????????




Tansy Gold, screaming again

[proudohioan]

31. THANK YOU!!!

Tomorrow is payday..... that means that I can go out and buy some more toilet paper, V05 shampoo for the kids (V05 is $1.00 a bottle!), more dish soap(currently using the last of some leftover Suave handsoap from whomever lived in this house prior to us moving in),oh, and replenish the Kleenex that we have been using since yesterday in lieu of toilet paper! Rent will be paid, gas, electric, phone will get paid....well, as far as the gas and electric, enough will be paid to prevent shut-offs. Thank God for the Ohio Lifeline program for the phone; we have a basic landline with no caller ID, no voice messaging etc.... for $8.52 per month. Foodstamps kick in on Sunday. I had budgeted (rationed?) to spend only $10.00 this week and spent $9.94; thank God for Aldi! I actually had $60 left on my "SNAP" card to last through Sunday, but I remembered that the kids will be out of school for Christmas break, so I needed to take that into account and budget accordingly. Thank God for Foodstamps, something that I never in my wildest dreams thought that I would ever be using!

I have been living in this matter for the better part of three years now.... I have a college education and am 46 years old. This is what our illustrious encomomy has done to many of us; the job prosepects are fewer and the salaries are shrinking. This is exactly what happens in a consumer based "economy". Cutting hours and salaries to make unemployment rate lower???? GIVE ME A BREAK!!!
We will then be a nation propped up by Food Stamps, Medicaid, TANF, Section 8 Housing, etc... because we are all working minimum wage, service sector jobs that leave the employees physically and emotionally battered and exhauseted. And Wall Street wonders why no one is Chistmas shopping this year? (This is my 3rd year of no Christmas) Well, that's what you get when you base your whole year of sales on a single day: BLACK FRIDAY!!!!! I, for one, am sick to death of it all! Anyone else out there in the same or similar boat?

[Tansy_Gold]

37. From the storyteller

Not just for you, proudohioan, but for all of us who are or have been or will be in similar circumstances --

Saturday morning my car died. I was able to rely on the kindness of friends to get me through the week-end until I could reach the mechanic. It looked like major repairs, which I am fortunate enough to be able to barely afford. I had to rely on a friend to get my car over there and then to give me a ride home. I was profusely grateful and apologetic at the same time. She assured me it was problem and I should let her know if I needed a ride later on, either to pick up the car or for any other reason.

But yesterday, still without a car, I had to run an errand. Yes, I could have called someone for a ride, and in fact a lot of other people had offered, but I just didn't want to lean on people, y'know? So I walked. Now, understand for those of you who don't know, I'm in central Arizona where a long walk in early December is 95% chance of no bad weather. So in jeans and tee-shirt and sneakers I was quite comfortable. But the 2-mile walk ended up -- because I took a wrong turn and had to walk through the desert for a mile -- being 3+ and I was pretty worn out. When later on I had my car back and was telling some friends about my ordeal, everyone said "Why didn't you call me? I would've driven you!"

Well, it's like with the jobs thing. I'm sure there are a lot of people who would just as soon get a hand-out and sit on their butts, but there are a helluva lot of people in this country who don't want hand-outs. Sometimes we take 'em because there's no other way to survive, but what we want are jobs. REAL jobs. Jobs that sustain a healthy economy.

It's nice, now, finally, that some of the higher ups are taking notice of this, but it's still not enough. It's not even enough on DU, with all our cheerleaders -- ha! I said it! -- who think just because the DJIA goes up, happy days are here again. The fact that there are bills in congress to extend unemployment benefits AGAIN and bills to subsidize COBRA and bills to stimulate this or that or the other thing -- haven't any of them got a fucking clue that the economy is BROKEN? It's not asleep or sluggish -- it's fundamentally fractured.

Hugs to you in Ohio, and I hope things get better for you and your kids and all of us -- SOON.


TG

[proudohioan]

41. Back at ya

Tansy! Best of luck with the car situation, it's rough without one, that's for sure! And I hear ya about the cheerleaders rallying around the stock market; the investor class sure thinks that now that the dow is over 10,000 (10,000???? is this not INSANE????) all is right with the world.....except for what you say about extending unemployment benefits AGAIN, trying to afford COBRA while unemployed??? HELLO!!!!!! WTF??????
I just stumbled onto this DU website (I don't even know how, to tell you the truth) and I tell you, it's kind of like a Godsend......people who are, for the most part, like minded, intelligent and thoughtful, wanting to get involved in making the world (or at least our country) a better place.
But I'm glad I did stumble onto DU (although at the moment I'm cursing it cuz I haven't done anything ELSE today!); it helps restore my dwindling faith........
You're right about JOBS, JOBS, JOBS! I myself am sick to death of being on some sort of public assistance, and I'd be willing to bet that I'm not the only one by a loooong shot! I can't take anymore of this retail bullshit that I found myself having to work in! I hope that this Jobs Summit is something more than just lip service to appease the masses, although I find myself getting more and more cynical everyday.
Well, enough of my ramblings; thanx to everyone for letting me vent a bit!

Best of luck to ya down in Arizona! And if you ever find yourself in Northeast Ohio, you'll find a really beautiful place to be.

[DemReadingDU]

46. Hey, another Buckeye!

This is the best daily thread on the DU. Please stop by anytime you want, we are always here. And on the weekends, Demeter starts a thread in the Editorials forum, so check us out then too.

:hi:


P.S. I'm in SW Ohio, it's bleak around here too. GM pulled out a year ago from Dayton, and DHL pulled out from Wilmington.
:(

[proudohioan]

49. Hey Buckeye

Yeah, I remember hearing about DHL and GM.....it really sucks, doesn't it! But I still wouldn't live anywhere else but Ohio! Moved here about 4 years ago from Denver. I occasionally go back to visit my daughter, and I tell you, I miss the hell outta Cleveland after about 2 days in Denver. And things aren't really much better there, either. I have friends there that were out of work back when I left and are still out of work now. It just goes to show that the grass really IS greener in Ohio (Ha Ha)!

I will most definitely be stopping by again; it's been a pleasure!

[ozymandius]

11. Ahead of the Bell: Jobless Claims

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits likely rose last week, after a steep drop.
.....

Economists closely monitor initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers. The report is due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Claims have steadily declined from a peak of 674,000 this spring. That indicates firings are decreasing, but most economists say weekly claims would have to fall to about 425,000 for several weeks to signal that the economy is actually adding jobs. Some economists put the number higher, around 475,000.

The number of people continuing to claim benefits, meanwhile, is expected to drop by about 20,000 to 5.4 million for the week ending Nov. 21. Those figures lag initial claims by a week.

But the continuing claims do not include millions of people that have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of-the-Bell-Jobless-apf-2491109730.html?x=0&.v=3

[tclambert]

39. Don't the November unemployment numbers from BLS come out tomorrow?

Looked it up. Yes, they do.

[ozymandius]

12. Have a nice day, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time to go to school.

:hi:

[tclambert]

14. Comcast, GE unveil NBC Universal deal

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Comcast Corp struck a deal to buy a majority stake in NBC Universal from General Electric Co, creating a media superpower that would control not just how TV shows and movies are made, but how they are delivered to the home.

The deal has been discussed for months and brought to light deep divisions within the media business over its future, with some lauding Comcast Chief Executive Officer Brian Roberts as a visionary and others calling it the most foolhardy acquisition since AOL bought Time Warner Inc in 2001.

Under the terms of the deal, Comcast, the largest U.S. cable service provider, will contribute $6.5 billion in cash and its own cable TV networks to take a 51 percent stake in NBC Universal, which owns TV networks, a movie studio, theme parks and local TV stations. GE will keep a 49 percent stake.


from: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5B222720091203
_____________________

No comment from Jay Leno yet.

[KoKo]

30. Could we say....it's time for some "Anti-trust Regulation?"

A test for our new Administration....another one. Will they step up or will they just ignore?

[tclambert]

40. Yeah, seems like the government has been "Pro-trust" since Reagan.

And a recession tends to concentrate the corporate power even further. Look how many banks have vanished. Look how many brands of automobiles are going away. A free market should really be about freedom of choice amongst competing products from competing firms. But the choices will be fewer in the new economy.

There's another side to that, too, regarding jobs. If all the jobs in one field are with one company, or a small handful of colluding companies, you don't have competition amongst employers, fighting over employees. Companies right now can pretty much force any workers to make concessions on wages and benefits. We need to get to an economy where the words "You should be grateful to have a job" do not rule the employment marketplace.

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.536 Change -0.133 (-0.17%)

Dollar Holding the Line but What Can Turn it Around?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2009-12-02-2350-Dollar_Holding_the_Line_but.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

The dollar was on the verge of collapse last Wednesday – and a late session break seemed to push the currency over the edge. However, this market-defining move proved more a reflection of liquidity than a meaningful revival of a long-term bear trend. Heading into the thin liquidity conditions that plagued the markets into the second half of last week, leave the skeleton crew with a scenario where the benchmark currency was on the verge of a massive breakout was deemed too dangerous; and a concerted effort was made to defuse the situation by forcing a break in the direction with the least resistance (or fundamental meaning) – a bearish break. Any doubts that this was a pressure release were quickly snuffed out by a sharp reversal in the dollar that would later be supported by the threat of a sovereign default in Dubai. And, while the potential credit event wouldn’t pan out; the market’s dramatic flight to safety perhaps reflects the doubt that is exists beneath the surface of optimism and capital reinvestment. Fundamental activity aside, the dollar is essentially in the same spot this week that it left off on the previous one. Today’s Fed Beige book reminds us that the US economy is performing relatively well compared its peers. Also, interest rate forecasts still put the Fed ahead of its ECB and BoE counterparts. The weight for the dollar therefore is still in risk appetite. Will sentiment deflate? Will the dollar’s funding currency status change? Will pressure for the Fed to deflate asset bubbles work? These are the questions to ask.



...more...

Gold Fails at Resistance, Metals Reveal Bearish Cues

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/daily/2009-12-03-0913-Gold_Fails_at_Resistance__Metals.html

Oil has once again failed to break higher at resistance that has contained prices since October, while gold and silver technical positioning reveals hints of a turn lower in the works.

Commodities – Energy
Oil Fails to Break Higher, Major Support in Sight Near $75

Crude Oil (WTI)       $77.11      +$0.51        +0.67%

Prices once again bounced lower from the top of the falling channel that has guided crude since the swing top in October. The medium-term down trend now faces a major hurdle just below the $75 mark as the channel bottom coincides with a major rising trend line established from the lows in February and an important horizontal resistance-turned-support level. A break below here would be a trajectory-defining outcome, confirming the high above $80 as a major top and opening the door for a sizable move lower. The data docket is tame before Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, leaving risk trends and the trajectory of the US Dollar as the primary catalysts. European shares are trading higher and US equity index futures are up about 0.5%, suggesting risky assets (and crude with them) are likely to remain supported at least for the time being.



Commodities – Metals
Gold, Silver Technical Positioning Reveals Bearish Cues

Gold       $1218.53       +$2.83       +0.23%

Despite relentless advances to new highs, technical positioning seems to hint that a reversal lower may be ahead. Prices are showing a Rising Wedge bearish reversal formation. Formidable support lines up near $1215, the intersection of the wedge’s lower boundary and a horizontal resistance-turned-support level. A sustained move below this juncture would open the door for extended downside (at least) targeting a return back below the $1200 mark. Fundamentally, the interest rate outlook for the US Fed remains the dominant catalyst, which leaves gold to trade off risk trends and their invariable impact on the Dollar until the calendar heats up with the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday.

Silver       $19.23       -$0.01       -0.05%

Prices appear to be taking time to consolidate ahead of major resistance at $19.47, the July 2008 swing high. Recent gains show sharp negative divergence with relative strength studies, hinting that a pullback is likely from here. Initial support is seen at $18.86, a recently broken triple top that had contained prices through November. As with gold, risk trends remain fundamental catalyst to watch.


...more...

[Festivito]

21. Debt: 12/01/2009 12,089,226,465,642.57 (DOWN 23,821,072,472.85) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly down for days--repeat. Yesterday's report up big, today's back down. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,707,251,353,639.54 + 4,381,975,112,003.03
DOWN 5,135,833,471.71 + DOWN 18,685,239,001.14

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,089,758 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,239.3.
A family of three owes $117,717.9. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 9,339,782,727.69.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,537,847,909.38.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,129,232,415.05.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 42 reports in 62 days of FY2010 averaging 4.27B$ per report, 2.89B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,146 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 19.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/01/2009 12,089,226,465,642.57 BHO (UP 1,462,349,416,729.49 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,179,397,462,130.80 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,056,130,220,608.75 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --

119,185,462,656.95 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4167783&mesg_id=4167793

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 12/02/2009 12,090,825,003,370.26 (UP 1,598,537,727.69) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,706,913,511,693.73 + 4,383,911,491,676.53
DOWN 337,841,945.81 + UP 1,936,379,673.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,098,398 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,243.39.
A family of three owes $117,730.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,527,966,102.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,869,576,271.80.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 43 reports in 63 days of FY2010 averaging 4.21B$ per report, 2.87B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,145 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/02/2009 12,090,825,003,370.26 BHO (UP 1,463,947,954,457.18 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,180,995,999,858.50 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,048,627,618,227.82 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---

118,838,033,602.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4169231&mesg_id=4169333

[Roland99]

23. Bank of America gains on TARP payoff

Bank of America gains on TARP payoff
Giant lender to raise $18.8 billion selling new common securities
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-gains-on-45-bln-payoff-plan-2009-12-03

Bank of America Corp. shares rose more than 4% in pre-open trade Thursday following news that the bank's paying off $45 billion it got from the government during the financial crisis.

To make the payment and escape government oversight of certain business decisions, the bank announced late Wednesday that it will raise $18.8 billion selling new common securities, setting the giant lender on course to wean itself from taxpayer support.

Bank of America shares rose 4.2% Thursday morning to trade at $16.31.

...

The bank plans to repay a chunk of the $45 billion in TARP funds using $26.2 billion in excess liquidity, such as cash and other holdings that can be sold quickly.

The remaining $18.8 billion will be raised by selling "common equivalent securities," the bank added.

Shoulda been with interest.

[rfranklin]

29. They want to shed government oversight so they can...

return to their winning ways and provide "competitive" compensation for their new CEO.

[Roland99]

32. Can't imagine the bigger shareholders are happy with the coming dilution.

[mullard12ax7]

42. Down it goes after being propped all day, aren't "free" markets great? Weeeeee!

The person on the street is always a slave to the whims of the market manipulators: will they prop or will they dump? It used to be called investment and speculation, now it's called a casino. The difference is when speculating or investing, the participant can exit the trade with some money remaining having not lost it all if it moved in the "wrong" direction: at the casino you lose it all because the tables are rigged, the market only moves in huge moves wherein the participant loses or gains a lot in 1 quick move.

But hey, we Americans still have perma-war, criminal insurance and info-tainment propaganda to keep us entertained.

[nc4bo]

47. gold, Gold, GOLD!!!!

Seems there's lots of Daffy Ducks out there.

[Ghost Dog]

48. US stocks fall on retail data overshadows Bank of America payback

New York - Depressing figures from the US services industry pushed down US stocks on Thursday, signalling a rough economic recovery ahead and overshadowing news that Bank of America is paying back government loans.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up about 90 per cent of the economy, dropped to 48.7 for November, below the 50-point mark that indicates growth.

There were also investor jitters ahead of the government's release Friday of unemployment data for November. More job losses are likely after the jobless rate climbed to 10.2 per cent in October, the highest rate in 26 years.

/... http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1516908.php/US-stocks-fall-on-retail-data-overshadows-Bank-of-America-payback

The 0.3 percent decline, according to one measure, is especially worrisome because it comes on top of a freefall last November as spooked shoppers went into a defensive crouch after the financial meltdown. Analyst had expected a solid gain. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of all economic activity.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=latest_threads