STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 4, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 3, 2009

Dow... 10,366.15 -86.53 (-0.83%)
Nasdaq... 2,173.14 -11.89 (-0.54%)
S&P 500... 1,099.92 -9.32 (-0.84%)
Gold future... 1,218 +5.20 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.38 +0.07 (+2.24%)
30-Year Bond 4.33 +0.08 (+1.91%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Less Than Surprising
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

According to the Institute for Supply Management, economic activity in the non-manufacturing (i.e., services) sector shrank in November. While the news unsettled economists and Wall Street strategists, who’ve been focusing on ivory tower theories and the spin coming out of Washington, those who’ve been paying attention to what is actually happening on the ground were not surprised.

In fact, based on the (admittedly short) history of the ratio of the services index to the manufacturing index, one might even conclude that both measures -- along with the overall economy -- are poised for another big leg down.

-see chart-

If and when things do fall apart, it will no doubt provoke another round of bloodletting for the corporate sector, especially the beleaguered financials. Since the crisis began, banks and other financial institutions worldwide have written off or lost a staggering $1.7 trillion, though that has been partly cushioned by capital-raising to the tune of $1.5 trillion. However, that $200 billion differential -- which doesn’t include losses for the current quarter, among other things -- could easily expand to far more worrying levels amid a renewed downturn in the economy and an abrupt return to reality in the equity market.

.....

Although share prices came under a bit of pressure today, Wall Street and Main Street remain disconnected. But there are signs of trouble lurking below the stock market’s surface. For one thing two sectors that had been at the forefront of the rally early on, financials and technology, have not made any headway in comparison to the overall market since the summer. In addition, the group that many view as the poster child of what has transpired over the past few years, the homebuilders, just hit a new relative low for 2009.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Nov
Briefing.com -150K
Consensus -125K
Prior -190K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Nov
Briefing.com 10.3%
Consensus 10.2%
Prior 10.2%

08:30 Average Workweek Nov
Briefing.com 33.0
Consensus 33.1
Prior 33.0

08:30 Hourly Earnings Nov
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Factory Orders Oct
Briefing.com -0.5%
Consensus 0.0%
Prior 0.9%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

68. NFP report - 11,000 jobs gone .... WTF?

8:30a U.S. Nov. unemployment rate falls to 10%

8:30a U.S. Nov. nonfarm payrolls fall 11,000

8:30a Unemployment rate falls to 10% in November

8:30a U.S. Nov. services industries add 58,000 jobs

8:30a U.S. Nov. hours worked rise 0.6%

8:30a U.S. payrolls better than -100,000 expected

8:30a Smallest job loss since Dec. 2007

8:30a U.S. Sept, Oct. payrolls revised up 159,000

8:30a U.S. Nov. average hourly earnings rise 0.1%

8:30a U.S. Nov. unemployment rate falls to 10%

**********
maybe I just don't understand, but wouldn't that small of a job loss be reflected by the initial claims being at or about 150,000 a week?

something just doesn't smell right

[UpInArms]

69. Oct factory orders "no change" - but last month was revised downward 0.3%

10:00a U.S. Oct. factory orders above expected no change

10:00a U.S. Oct factory orders up 0.6%

****************

sneaky and sly - these people just don't get being honest, do they?

[ozymandius]

3. Oil skids to near $76 ahead of US jobs report

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped to near $76 a barrel Friday in Asia ahead of U.S. unemployment figures that will provide an important guide to the strength of the economic recovery and demand for crude.
.....

The Labor Department announces later Friday the November unemployment rate and how many jobs the U.S. economy lost last month. The jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, a 26-year high.

The much awaited employment report will likely determine if oil finishes the week with a sell-off, Galena, Illinois-based Ritterbusch and Associates said in a report. "A bearish surprise within the jobless data could easily trigger a run at the $75 level."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

28. And has shot up over $1/bbl since the release of the report.

We're not getting any breaks on oil this winter.

[Roland99]

47. And has since reversed course w/the strong dollar and down about $1.50/bbl

wheeeee

[Demeter]

49. but of course,there's NO speculation involved, at all!

[ozymandius]

4. World stocks mostly down ahead of key US jobs data

LONDON – World stocks mostly fell Friday ahead of a key U.S. jobs report that investors watch closely for signs of recovery and which could well set the market tone for the rest of the year.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 32.63 points, or 0.6 percent, at 5,280.37 while Germany's DAX fell 39.10 points, or 0.7 percent, at 5,731.25. The CAC-40 in France was 16.53 points, or 0.4 percent, lower at 3,782.58.

Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 55.72 points, or 0.3 percent, to 22,498.15, but Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average bucked the trend and ended 44.92 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,022.59.
.....

The consensus is that November U.S. non-farm payrolls fell by around 125,000, but that the unemployment rate held steady at a 26-year high of 10.2 percent. However, some soft economic data this week has raised fears that the payrolls may decline by 160,000 and the unemployment rate may tick up.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091204/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_31

[ozymandius]

5. Obama, lawmakers target bailout fund for jobs bill

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama's options for spurring job growth may be limited by out-of-control budget deficits, but he is warming to moves by his congressional allies for a jobs-boosting bill.

Taking his defense of the economy on the road, the president scheduled appearances Friday in Pennsylvania to showcase innovative businesses following Thursday's White House jobs forum. That event combined cheerleading and brainstorming as Obama exhorted more than 100 CEOs, academics, small business and union leaders and local officials to focus on new ways to get businesses hiring again.

At the forum, the president spoke favorably of an expanded program to help make more U.S. homes energy efficient and mentioned trade measures and new tax incentives as being among ways to stop job losses that are the worst since the 1930s.
.....

After talks with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and other administration officials, congressional Democrats are eying up to $70 billion in unused borrowing authority from last year's $700 billion Wall Street bailout for jobs-related legislation, two House Democratic aides said. The aides required anonymity to describe the private talks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091204/ap_on_bi_ge/us_obama_economy

[Tansy_Gold]

10. The only jobs-related bills we need wouldn't take $70B

Just revoke NAFTA, GATT, all the other alphabet soup of trade agreements that have sent our jobs elsewhere.

Over in GD (I think) there's a discussion about Berskanky's suggestion to revoke Medicare and Social Security. Now, when all those people who are LIVING on Social Security are thrown out on the street to find jobs, what jobs are waiting for them?


How fucking stupid are these people? Seriously. How stupid can a single human being be and still have the brains to breathe in and out?

Sen. Bunning (R-Senility) read a nice speech, which I'm sure he had very little comprehension of, when he announced his hold on Berskanky's nomination. There's a helluva lot of truth in that speech.

But it's not just Bernanke who has to go. Geither, Summers, Rubin, all of the stupid, blind, ignorant, wealth-serving assholes who are directing this traffic jam over a cliff need to be removed. PERMANENTLY.



Tansy Gold, boomer living (partly) on social security

[Demeter]

11. Insomnia, Tansy?

Me too. I never thought the situation could get worse once W was history, but I guess I was wrong.

The "chess game" is 3 card monte, the Chessmaster is a fraud, and the losers are winning.

[Tansy_Gold]

12. I'm always up around 4 a.m. to work

It's quiet, and I can work better right after I wake up.

Yeah, it's a shell game all right, and we were suckered in like farmboys on our first trip to the big city.

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID is what someone -- anyone -- should be screaming at Obama.


Where's Kevin Kline when we need him?




TG

[tclambert]

13. Revoke Social Security?

Why not just save time and slaughter people as they retire? If you eliminate Social Security, you'd be killing a lot of our senior citizens. Social Security is the best federal program we have. It does what it was meant to do, it reduced poverty amongst seniors from 50% to 10%; it has its own separate taxation system, which has never contributed a penny to the deficit; and it runs with an administrative overhead of about 1%. It should be the model for all federal programs.

It would be interesting to hear the reaction if we had a separate tax system for the Department of Defense or the War in Iraq. I imagine people would say, "Whoa! I'm spending that much on those? Hang on, I want to go over your books and plans in a little more detail."

[Possumpoint]

15. Nobody

wants to remember that Social Security ran surpluses for many years. Congress critters, couldn't stand seeing all that money sitting around so they figured out ways to spend it for general expenses or vote getters. They looked like good guys giving away things without raising taxes. Just hand SS a IOU and go on your way. Now that the IOU's will have to be called in people are screaming Stop SS!

No politician had the combination of leadership and testosterone to take on reforming SS. They kept kicking the problem down the road for someone else to fix. Now the shit is starting to hit the fan. A quick tempy patch would be to eliminate the ceiling on taxable wages.

[sandnsea]

16. Not remotely accurate

FICA ran surpluses because it was intended to. Boomers are the first generation to contribute to their own retirement. Bill Clinton's budget surplus was a FICA surplus. Had he been forthcoming about that, the people might not have stupidly supported Bush's tax cuts for the rich. That's where our social security surpluses went. Period.

[Possumpoint]

30. Accurate

Congress was raiding SS long before GWB came to office. There are no saints in this tale. Threats to cut off SS to those who deserve it are disingenuous.

[sandnsea]

87. Are you familiar with the Clinton surplus?

Where do you think that came from?

[Tansy_Gold]

18. That "tempy" patch should be a "permy" patch and

it should apply to ALL income, not just wages.

Even if it's only a 1% FICA tax on unearned income, it would hit the upper $$$ ranks and pull in some needed cash.

Seems to me it was someone's refusal to tax the rich that brought about a revolution. . . .


FRSP is watching you. . . .



TG

[Possumpoint]

31. I said Tempy

because the whole SS and Medicare system needs to be overhauled and properly funded. That patch is but one piece of the whole pie.

[mbperrin]

32. From the trustee report:

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html


Social Security could be brought into actuarial balance over the next 75 years with changes equivalent to an immediate 16 percent increase in the payroll tax (from a rate of 12.4 percent to 14.4 percent)


It's really that simple. Throw in no limit on the cap, and you're swimming in money. Swimming in it until 2039, anyway, without doing anything at all.

[amandabeech]

66. Yes, FICA, sui/dis and medicare all should be taken out of unearned income of all types.

Plus, a SS surcharge should be placed on all earned income above the current SS limit. Something like 1-2% would be fine.

Medicare/Medicaid, I have read, will be harder to fix.

[ozymandius]

6. Bank of America: Is This Health or Financial Botox?

TARP has grown increasingly unpopular. The legislation was furiously passed as the government clumsily groped to stem the financial crisis that was propelled by the Lehman (LEHMQ.PK) bankruptcy. In short, they threw money at the problem by enacting a bill that was also loaded with pork - an incredibly cynical and all too predictable feature of legislation that could suffer no delay. TARP at best elicited a mixed reaction from the American public, many of whom viewed it as a bailout for the greedy on Wall Street.

Indeed, the numerous large financial institutions whose broken risk management made a crisis of some meaningful proportion inevitable deserved to fail. And there are those who believe that is exactly what should have happened. Many more, however, believe that the government action to salvage the financial system was necessary to avoid even worse financial market and economic fallout than occurred. TARP is perhaps most despised by the bankers who received the program's funds, as it entitles the government to input on compensation and other matters in which they most definitely prefer a free hand. As the public hears of record bonuses (at least for some) on Wall Street, is it any wonder that resentment over TARP has grown? Politicians naturally respond to public sentiment. And in the last day Bank of America (BAC) has made clear that it will repay these funds shortly. However, is this actually wise? Is Bank of America sure-footed? Has its financial solidity stabilized? In short, is the repayment of the $45 billion BofA owes the government timely?
.....

When we delve into the figures that drove these numbers what stands out most is the quality, or lack thereof, of the bank's loans and securities portfolios. To begin with, between the second and third quarter ends, total loans fell from $942 billion to $914 billion -- lending credence to the frequent public complaint that banks are not lending. Of particular concern is the trend in nonperforming loans. These rose between the two quarter ends from $29.2 billion to $31.9 billion. This is all the more alarming as net charge-offs from the loan loss reserve increased from $8.7 billion to $9.6 billion and provisions for future losses fell from $13.4 billion to $11.7 billion.

...However, there is as yet no indication that the flow of new impaired loans is slowing, so that substantial additional provisions may well be required to cover future loan losses. Additionally, there is reason to question whether many banks with substantial problem loans are conservatively classifying them as such or choosing a methodology that masks the true extent of impairment. ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/176533-bank-of-america-is-this-health-or-financial-botox

[ozymandius]

7. House votes to make current estate tax level permanent (sorta)

Reporting from Washington - The House of Representatives on Thursday voted to make the current estate tax rate permanent -- just weeks before the tax was scheduled to expire for a year.

The measure, which passed on a 225-200 vote, locks in the current rate of 45% for inheritances over $3.5 million. The bill now faces an uncertain future in the Senate.

If Congress fails to act by the end of the year, the tax will disappear for 2010, but then return in 2011 at a rate of 55%, with the first $1 million exempted. That would restore the tax to where it stood before George W. Bush took office.
.....

Estimates have the government losing about $235 billion in revenue over the next decade if the lower rate is made permanent.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-estate-tax4-2009dec04,0,3975843.story

[ozymandius]

8. Bernanke May Get Second Term at Fed Shorn of Bank Supervision

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke left a Senate confirmation hearing with support for a second term heading a central bank that may be shorn of its powers to supervise financial firms.

Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd of Connecticut backed Bernanke yesterday and said he’s likely to be confirmed by the full Senate. Dodd credited Bernanke with preventing a financial meltdown, even though the Fed’s oversight of banks leading up to the crisis was an “abysmal failure.”

Bernanke told the committee that the Fed’s ability to maintain a stable financial system and conduct monetary policy is “critically dependent” on its supervision powers. He got no assurances that the Fed’s authority would remain intact as Congress considers an overhaul of financial regulations in a bid to prevent a repeat of the worst crisis since the 1930s.
....

Dodd’s bill would consolidate oversight of banks, now shared between the Fed and three other regulators, into a single new agency. He would also deprive the Fed of consumer-protection powers and curtail its ability to make emergency loans to troubled firms.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_qeUsN48Sp8&pos=5

[ozymandius]

9. Not Exactly a Vote of Confidence

In Tim Iacono’s earlier post regarding Sen Jim Bunning’s less-than-flattering remarks about Ben Bernanke, he noted the groundswell of public opinion against the current Fed Chairman.

In fact, Rasmussen Reports has announced the results of its latest national telephone survey, and it reveals that 38% of adults regard Bernanke unfavorably, while only 21% believe the president should reappoint him to another four-year term.

Not exactly a vote of confidence…

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/not-exactly-a-vote-of-confidence/

There is a chart to illustrate Rasmussen's polling data.

[Dr.Phool]

14. The Fed will really miss the loss of consumer protection authority.

Since they've been been such rabid defenders of consumers against credit card companies, bank fees, and such staunch advocates for strong usury laws. If it weren't for Bernanke and Geithner, we might have a recession.

[Tansy_Gold]

22. You forgot

the :sarcasm: thing.

Remember, there might be cheerleader lurkers who think you're serious.


Dr.Phool? Serious? :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:





TG

[Dr.Phool]

24. I thought about adding it.

Then, I just wondered what I could lure out of the wood work.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. If I were a drinking person. . . .

You'd owe me a new keyboard.


:thumbsup:


TG

[AnneD]

34. Cheerleader, on this thread....

Tansy, I call bull shit-you do hit the sauce early in the morning:evilgrin:
In Insurance parlance...I say you have a pre existing condition and Dr. Phool does not owe you a keyboard.

AnneD finally over her computer issues only to now have weather issues. Hell must have froze over because it is snowing in Houston.

[Demeter]

40. It's an Odd Year When Houston Gets Snow Before Ann Arbor

All we've had are threats from the weatherman, and the barest touch of sleet last night around 9 PM

That's because I've poured hundreds of dollars into my car (and the Younger Kid's) to get ready for winter....so there won't be one. (Works for me! Still got roses clinging to the bushes--but I think they are just frozen on...)

[Dr.Phool]

44. I thought you'd be out skiing today!

Not many snow days in your neck of the woods!

[AnneD]

61. I'll be skiing on the way home from work....

We use our cars as skis here in Houston......




YIPPEE I OH KI A !!!!!!!

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 12/02/2009 12,090,825,003,370.26 (UP 1,598,537,727.69) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,706,913,511,693.73 + 4,383,911,491,676.53
DOWN 337,841,945.81 + UP 1,936,379,673.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,098,398 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,243.39.
A family of three owes $117,730.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,527,966,102.58.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,869,576,271.80.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 43 reports in 63 days of FY2010 averaging 4.21B$ per report, 2.87B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,145 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/02/2009 12,090,825,003,370.26 BHO (UP 1,463,947,954,457.18 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,180,995,999,858.50 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,048,627,618,227.82 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---

118,838,033,602.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4169231&mesg_id=4169333

[Festivito]

86. Debt: 12/03/2009 12,087,361,675,014.75 (DOWN 3,463,328,355.51) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,709,701,348,736.40 + 4,377,660,326,278.35
UP 2,787,837,042.67 + DOWN 6,251,165,398.18

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,107,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,231.05.
A family of three owes $117,693.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,179,526,787.32.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,625,668,751.13.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 44 reports in 64 days of FY2010 averaging 4.03B$ per report, 2.77B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,144 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/03/2009 12,087,361,675,014.75 BHO (UP 1,460,484,626,101.67 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,177,532,671,503.00 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,012,491,017,165.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---
11/16/2009 +038,287,630,031.50 ------------********** Mon
11/17/2009 +000,263,245,360.02 ------------********
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********

121,327,415,698.11 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4170630&mesg_id=4170695

[UpInArms]

19. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.626 Change -0.005 (-0.01%)

Correlations Intensify as Risk Appetite Blurs

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/fx_correlation/2009-12-03-1935-Correlations_Intensify_as_Risk_Appetite.html

There are fundamental links underlying the market which wax and wane depending on what the prevailing concern in the market happens to be. For example, through the past month; we can see evidence that the influence of various fundamental drivers is being refined down to a couple prominent, underlying themes.

Forex Correlations (December): How Do Currencies Trade In Relation To Each Other?

The following is our monthly correlations update for December. As we have stated time and again, correlations between different currency pairs will inevitably shift over time. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to keep abreast of these fluctuating relationships to fully understand your trades and portfolio. Below are the one-, three-, six- and twelve-month correlations for the seven major currency pairs. Additionally, we have included the six-month trailing correlation for the majors against the EURUSD for a different view of correlation.

In order to be an effective trader, it is important to understand how different currency pairs move in relation to each other (and in conjunction to other markets). There are a few reasons why this is significant, but most importantly, it allows traders to understand their net exposure. Such exposure goes well beyond merely buying or selling too much of a single currency against its various counterparts. There are fundamental links underlying the market which wax and wane depending on what the prevailing concern in the market happens to be. For example, through the past month; we can see evidence that the influence of various fundamental drivers is being refined down to a couple prominent, underlying themes. One of those key concerns rests with the dollar’s influence on the market. The greenback is the world’s most liquid currency and is therefore tapped into broader considerations like risk appetite and the global outlook for growth. To highlight the streamline fundamental backdrop, we can look to the correlations the EURUSD holds against AUDUSD and USDCHF. It is not unusual to see a strong negative relationship between the euro and franc-based majors; but November’s figure (-0.99) is no less impressive. Months ago, both the dollar and franc were considered safe haven currencies when fear was rousing volatility. However as the aggressive rebound in the markets matures and the franc loses appeal as a harbor in stormy markets, the focus was brought back to the economic link between the Euro Zone and Switzerland; and comparing their collective outlook to that of the United States. At the same time, we have also seen risk appetite cool in the past month. This has in turn focused the relationship that sentiment creates. Both EURUSD and AUDUSD (0.80) are the ideal benefactors to the dollar’s weakness and primary losers when in strengthens. The euro is the primary counterpart to the dollar through liquidity and fundamental background; but Australia is considered the best-performing, major industrialized economy. When fear rises, the demand for a safe haven naturally boosts the dollar in EURUSD and reverses a clear yield play in AUDUSD.

However, both the focus on risk appetite and the position of the Swiss franc in the currency market are ever evolving. We can see point to changing correlations over time that highlight both. Offering a look into both factors at once, we can compare USDCHF and NZDUSD over the past month and entire year. Through the year, the relationship was much more tame (-0.49) as the franc’s position as a safe haven competed with the US dollar. However, in the past month, as the dollar has been slowly forced to the bottom of the spectrum and investors have had to look more closely to find yield as capital advances were stalled, this same relationship has tightened (-0.73). For this reason, having this knowledge will allow traders to effectively diversify and manage their portfolios over time.

...more...

Crude Oil, Metals Retreat Ahead of US Jobs Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/daily/2009-12-04-1140-Crude_Oil__Metals_Retreat_Ahead.html

Oil, gold, and silver validated yesterday's bearish technical forecast to trade lower ahead of major event risk as the US Nonfarm Payrolls report gets set to cross the wires.

Commodities – Energy
Oil Perched Above Trend-Defining Support Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

Crude Oil (WTI)       $75.84       -$0.62       -0.81%

Crude are once again approaching the bottom of the falling channel that has guided prices since the swing top in October. The bears now face a major hurdle just below the $75 mark as the channel bottom coincides with a major rising trend line established from the lows in February and an important horizontal resistance-turned-support level. A break below here would be a trajectory-defining outcome, confirming the high above $80 as a major top and opening the door for a sizable move lower. Turning to the fundamentals, all eyes are on November’s US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Expectations suggest the world’s largest economy shed 125,000 jobs in November, the least since March 2008. However, we learned yesterday that the non-manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank in November; services account for close to 80% of US employment, so a downside surprise is not out the question, and could weigh on crude prices into the close of the trading week.



Commodities – Metals
Gold Validates Bearish Technical Outlook, US Jobs Report on Tap

Gold       $1205.00       -$2.60       -0.22%

Yesterday’s bearish gold technical forecast played out as expected as prices took out support at the bottom of a Rising Wedge formation. A minor falling channel has guided the move lower, with gold now consolidating above the $1195.10 – $1200.50 congestion region. As with oil, Nonfarm Payrolls release dominates attention fundamentally.

Silver       $18.82       -$0.01       -0.05%

As with gold, yesterday’s bearish technical setup was validated with prices breaking lower to take out resistance-turned-support at $18.86, a prior triple top that had contained prices through November, and have now pulled up slightly to re-test this boundary on the upside. The down move has been confined to a minor falling channel, with continued bearish momentum seeing near-term support at $18.42. Nonfarm Payrolls are in focus fundamentally.



...more...

[natrat]

20. wowzee look at that gold tank and dollar spike

[Hugin]

21. Yeah, look at that!

8/

Check out the $ vs Yen chart too... Straight up.

What brought this on? Cover for the miserable jobs report today?

[natrat]

23. higher interest rates ahead, reason to buy the dollar maybe

[Lucky Luciano]

25. That jobs report was fantastic! Far better than expected along with

Revisiions for last month which were much better too. I work on a HUGE trading floor in Connecticut and you should have heard the roar.
Calls came in and people were lifting 1,000,000 share blocks of SPY without hesitation.

[natrat]

35. i guess they got a little frisky with their million share blocks

the dudes with all the tarp funds and the billion share blocks drop the hammer now

[natrat]

36. 10,330 ---bu bye

[Hugin]

38. I'm guessing there will be no rational discussion of how many people have lost their UE and how...

that impacts the UE percentage until next month? :shrug:

Well, ever since the Iraq War started I've been suspicious of -ANY- story broken by the NYT.

[FBaggins]

51. I can give you "rational discussion"... it DOESN'T impact it at all.

Receipt of unemployment insurance does not bear on whether or not you are considered unemployed.

[Hugin]

53. Did someone say something?

Anyway, I'm still wondering if this is true... How is a decrease in the overall unemployment percentage down possible with all of the REAL job categories down...

Oh, here's my answer.

"Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and information
industries were offset by job gains in temporary help services and health
care. Since the recession began, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2
million."

from.... http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

They are "Potato Chip" jobs... You want just one, but, to make ends meet... Well, you'd better have three.

[FBaggins]

55. Wonder all you like... it's true.

How is a decrease in the overall unemployment percentage down possible with all of the REAL job categories down...

Different surveys measure different things. It isn't uncommon for them to appear to conflict.

job gains in temporary help services

That's to be expected as job numbers turn around (and it's the same thing that happened after the last recession). Employers begin to THINK they see things pick up so they need more help, but they aren't willing to jump into the pool headfirst... so they dip a toe or two. They bring in people on a temp basis to see whether the demand is "temp" as well.

BTW - the conflict with ADP is nothing new. They have been way off in both directions over the few years that they have done the survey. Frankly, I don't know why they were picked up a year or so ago as a commonly-reported survey.

[UpInArms]

70. Why, FRODO!!!! You're back????

I was certain that you had been TOMBSTONED a long time ago!!

You are such a card. Bringing your stale strawman arguments back to the SMW after all this time.

I'd roll out that welcome wagon, but I think I'll go find 54anickel - she's so much better at that than I am.

[FBaggins]

71. Frodo yes...

I would think the "F" would make that obvious. Unless there's a Fred Baggins? I think there's a "Freto", but that was an old spoof.

Was there some part of the post you disagreed with or did it just bring back memories?

[UpInArms]

73. is it you, or are you just as evil as your twin?

[FBaggins]

76. Well...

I'm really me... are you really you?

And hey... as for "evil"... what in the post did you have a problem with?

[UpInArms]

78. well, my only incarnation is here and I've been here ... well,

forever

and you...

is this your first incarnation? or have you returned from the ?

[FBaggins]

79. Don't know

Was he handsome and funny but with a dry wit?

[UpInArms]

81. not handsome nor funny

annoying and disruptive and full a crap that he thought smelled like begonias

[FBaggins]

83. Well then it can't be me can it?

So what in the post reminded you of the frozen pizza???

[tclambert]

74. I agree with your post. But I'm still stunned by these numbers.

All the estimates were for -100,000 jobs or worse, unemployment rate at 10.3% or worse. I did not dare hope for jobs news this good. U-3 went down from 10.2% to 10.0%. U-6 went down from 17.5% to 17.2%. The raw number of jobs increased from 139,088,000 to 139,132,000 (up 44,000). The seasonally adjusted jobs numbers (and I do not know what that actually means) went up from 138,275,000 to 138,502,000 (up 227,000).

To quote a character from a different fantasy universe, "Unexpected, this is."

It's really, really good that unemployment went down, but 10.0% is still really, really bad.

[UpInArms]

80. background on "seasonably adjusted"

you said:

The seasonally adjusted jobs numbers (and I do not know what that actually means)

in years past - usually during the Christmas shopping season, employers would add temporary help to cover the needs, manufacturing was usually done in Sept/Oct but selling in malls and storefronts was done Nov/Dec, thus the need to hire more help at that level for the shopping season. The seasonal adjustments happen approximately 4 times a year to cover a variety of changes that are expected to occur, and the reports are "lagging" so they are "adjusted".

:shrug:

[FBaggins]

84. The thing is...

Wouldn't that mean that the number of jobs was adjusted downward to account for seasonal hiring that I think we can agree isn't happening?

Of course the flip side is that there will be reports early next year that look artificially good as the number is adjusted upward to account for those holiday hires being fired (who now won't be fired since they were never hired)

[tclambert]

75. . . . and there was a Fosco Baggins (Frodo's grandfather)

[FBaggins]

77. Yep... and a Falco

But he's really a Chubb-Baggins (Chica Chubb kept her maiden name)... and that's on the Mungo Baggins side of the family anyway. Third cousin once removed.

[54anickel]

85. Frodo!!! My it's been a long time dear banker friend. Still gainfully employed I take it?

What brings you back to DU and the SMW? Here to promote the Bull market again?

Dang, I'm trying to remember your last incarnation...something to do with being 6 foot under, wasn't it? Something with a hill or mound or???? Forgive me, the memory of this old dog is failing.

Howzbout that gold though! (Since last time you shined around) :evilgrin: :P

[Ghost Dog]

43. Coalition & BOJ's Yen weakening policy may be more effective than expected?

BOJ Action Reduced Yen Volatility, Signals Exit, Calyon Says

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan has reduced the yen’s volatility with its new 10 trillion yen
($113 billion) program aimed at stabilizing interest rates, signaling the start of its plan to normalize monetary policy, Calyon Securities said.

The central bank’s decision to offer three-month loans to commercial banks at a rate of 0.1 percent brought down yen borrowing costs, which should limit gains in the currency in the long run, Susumu Kato, Calyon’s chief economist in Tokyo, said in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday. The BOJ announced its measures after an emergency meeting Dec. 1.

“It’s important to know it’s the start of exit policies,” Kato said. “The Bank of Japan tried to prevent a pickup in interest rates because that could make the Japanese yen stronger.”

The yen was little changed at 88.20 per dollar today after declining for the past three days. The currency climbed to 84.83 on Nov. 27, the strongest since July 1995. It may decline to 90 versus the dollar by the end of March 2010, Kato said.

“Before stabilizing at 90, there will be some risk of further strengthening of the Japanese yen,” he said. “Maybe close to 80, but that will be the end of the story. After that, it will stabilize.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4PMrmelPa9k

--

Hatoyama Delays Stimulus Package Amid Coalition Rift

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama failed to persuade one of his coalition partners to accept his stimulus package, delaying its release until next week.

Hatoyama’s plan to announce spending of as much as 4 trillion yen ($45.4 billion) today was blocked by Financial Services Minister Shizuka Kamei, head of one of the two minority parties that the Democratic Party of Japan needs to smooth the passage of legislation. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano said it will probably be agreed upon on Dec. 7.

“We cannot destroy the coalition,” Hatoyama told reporters in Tokyo. “However, there’s an issue of fiscal restraint, making it hard to increase the package.”

...

Kamei has been an outspoken member of Hatoyama’s cabinet. He accused the Bank of Japan of sleeping on the job, and blamed the country’s biggest business lobby for rising murder and suicide rates. In an interview this week, he called on Japan to ask the U.S. and Europe to join in coordinated action to weaken the yen, which has risen 5.4 percent in the past three months.

...

Mikio Shimoji, head of policy research for Kamei’s PNP, said Kamei won’t compromise on the size of the package. “Unless it’s around 8 trillion yen, the economy won’t respond,” he said. The DPJ “has no choice but to bow down.”

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a9QerYPOFHJQ

... also ...

... The iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund, a U.S. exchange-traded fund that tracks the country’s stocks, has risen 6.7 percent this week, heading for its biggest weekly gain since March. The rally began after the ETF fell for two months and approached its 200-day average price in November...

... Japanese equities have lagged this year as the yen rose to a 14-year high against the dollar, threatening exports that the country is counting on for an economic recovery. The Topix index added 3.4 percent this year, making Japan the worst performing among the world’s 40 largest stock markets.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aODwDaVFhK6M

[Lucky Luciano]

27. COF - Capital One's TARP warrants have been sold by the government at

$11.75. This is way below the $18-20 that some professor Linus Wilson estimated. He really underestimated the impact of dividends that are likely to increase rapidly and he probably used short term vols, which are quite high, to price these 9 year warrants. Quite foolish. His credibilty is shot.

[DemReadingDU]

29. William Black has a blog

Economic Perspectives from Kansas City
Policy Analysis from the Faculty at the University of Missouri-KC
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/


12/1/09 Bo Cutter’s Indictment of the Finance Industry
Bo Cutter has presented the best possible defense of Treasury Secretary Geithner. It is a remarkable defense because it is premised on a scathing indictment of Wall Street, theoclassical economics, modern finance, and the sycophants that the financial community installed as anti-regulators.

Indeed, Bo’s account is sometimes particularly credible because it is a confession. Bo was a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm and led President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. His defense of Geithner provides so rich a vein of ore that I will mine it in three installments: (1) Bo’s indictment of the finance industry, Greenspan, Geithner, Paulson and Bernanke, (2) the martyrdom of Geithner, and (3) Geithner as Bo’s Last Action Hero.

more...
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/12/bo-cutters-indictment-of-finance.html


12/2/09 Geithner as Martyr to an Ungrateful Nation: Bo Cutter’s Tragicomic Portrayal of Tim as Our “Man for all Seasons”
This is the second installment in my comments on Bo Cutter’s essay defending Treasury Secretary Geithner.
Bo was a managing partner of Warburg Pincus, a major global private equity firm and led President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) transition team. He was Bob Rubin’s deputy at the National Economic Council. The first installment discussed Bo’s extraordinary indictment of the finance industry.

more...
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/12/geithner-as-martyr-to-ungrateful-nation.html


12/3/09 Geithner as Our “Last Action Hero”
This is my third essay commenting on Bo Cutter's essay defending Treasury Secretary Geithner.
This essay provides an alternative view. I have written elsewhere of why Geithner's actions once he became Treasury Secretary were so harmful. This essay discusses his failures to act when he was President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY).

more...
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/2009/12/geithner-as-our-last-action-hero.html

[UpInArms]

82. fascinating writing

many thanks for the link

:)

[MidwestRick]

33. Check out - GGWPQ — General Growth Properties, Inc

It's up 14% today, but almost hit 10 bucks this morning.

[Hugin]

39. Friedman will be so happy.

:eyes:

[Joe Chi Minh]

37. Hilarious article in today's Daily Mail by its Political Editor, James Chapman.

Under the title 'Brown snub for Sarkozy in row over City crisis', Chapman writes:

(snip) France's Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde, declared: Nobody can say that no regulation or soft regulation as Gordon Brown called it when he was Chancellor, did us any good. Everybody agrees that the system must change.'

(snip) Further tensions emerged as France and other EU countries forced Britain to agree to the creation of three new powerful EU financial regulators. European Finance Ministers struck a deal on Wednesday to set up a European Banking Authority, a European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, and a European Securities and Markets Authority.

City leaders warned the moves could prompt leading firms to move out of the EU altogether."

<(on edit) "Please don't leave us in the briar patch all on our lonesome(!) - with a decimated finance sector and a rebuilt industrial one, will you?">

David Bulk, senior strategist at broker BGC Partners, said: 'We in the City are very disappointed by Mr Sarkozy's insulting behaviour.'

Why, that's just heart-breaking, isn't it? But I loved the way the flirty French bobby-dazzler and Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde, reminded our porcine friends that, actually, Milton Friedman's economic policy insights had been discredited beyond all measure. Infinitely. And to continue to pretend otherwise was frankly not remotely acceptable. It obviously takes a lot to get through to NuLab(c)'s finest.

How prophetic, the suggestion of the respondent to the question of another reader, in the Guardian's Notes and Queries, "How should the French mock us, in return for our naming London's major train station welcoming French visitors, Waterloo?" 'How about calling the Gare du Nord, La Gare Margaret Thatcher". Not that it wouldn't still be lost on our politicians, hence Lagarde's words were music to my ears.

As a matter of fact, why on earth, as well as totally abolishing all bonuses in banking, are not the incomes of the top earners at the banks halved. Other people, who moreover, can ill-afford it, are routinely expected to have their pay or their hours cut, TO HELP SAVE THE BUSINESS! Well, it's too late for our friends to do that, but genuine contrition requires, where possible, reparation, as well as a firm purpose of amendment. Instead of doing either, our banksters mock us by demanding more of the same. And all, of course, under the continuing aegis of their current, best friends', NuLab(c)'s finest.

Here is the link, although I preferred the slightly different, paper version:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232495/Hands-City-Chancellor-warns-Sarkozys-EU-man.html

[Demeter]

41. Cut Bankers' Wages In Half? That's Simply Revolutionary!

[Joe Chi Minh]

42. Why, that looks like a golden blade. How fitting.

[Dr.Phool]

45. Instead of the Golden Parachute

The Golden FRSP!

Love it!

[Joe Chi Minh]

54. It would comes down swifter than a malfunctioning parachute, but in a way,

just as hard.

[Ghost Dog]

46. Jobs Data Divergence: Who To Believe?

by: Jacob Dreizin December 04, 2009

Although thousands of sharp minds review the employment numbers every month, no one seems to have noticed the growing divergence between the ongoing monthly 40,000-plus manufacturing job loss bombs from BLS on the one hand, and a positive employment situation as reported in the ISM manufacturing survey.

For the last two months, managers in most manufacturing sectors have told the ISM that their firms are either expanding staff, or at least not firing, thus pushing this survey component into the “over 50” growth range. Note that this figure is supposed to indicate real-time events rather than sentiment as to near-term hiring or firing.

What is going on here?

Clearly, the BLS and ISM cannot both be right on this one. Either the manufacturing labor force is growing, or it is contracting rapidly and substantially. Perhaps it makes sense to defer to the government’s figures on manufacturing jobs—which more-or-less agree with the respected ADP report—over some limited-sample survey conducted much like a Gallup poll?

But then, aside from manufacturing, the November BLS employment summary is completely incomprehensible. There is a massive discrepancy between the all-sector job losses reported by ADP and the BLS—169,000 versus 11,000. In percentage terms, this could well be the biggest ADP-BLS disagreement ever.

But it gets even more interesting. ADP reports 81,000 jobs lost in the service sector in November, while BLS reports a net gain of 56,000. Meanwhile, the ISM shows non-manufacturing employment still deep in contraction territory, at 41.6 whereas a mere break-even is 50. Who are we supposed to believe?

Moreover, according to the BLS, “the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from -219,000 to -139,000, and the change for October was revised from -190,000 to -111,000.” Again, these are almost unprecedented revisions and a massive departure from ADP numbers. Note that ADP revised its October figures by only 8000, from a decline of 203,000 to a decline of 195,000.

The only legitimate, methodological explanation for such a large gap between ADP and BLS numbers is that ADP does not register government jobs. However, BLS claims that government added only 7,000 jobs for November. So this cannot be causing the discrepancy.

We are looking at a three-month ADP-BLS net jobs divergence of roughly 230%, with ISM non-manufacturing employment still deep in contraction. Again, whom are we supposed to believe? It seems that the stats are finally coming unglued. My own hunch is that under intense political pressure, BLS created a number of service sector jobs out of thin air.

/.. http://seekingalpha.com/article/176620-jobs-data-divergence-who-to-believe?source=article_lb_articles

[Hugin]

48. "... under intense political pressure, BLS created a number of service sector jobs out of thin air."

There you have it... The Bernites want to keep their Boss Front-man.

[Hawkowl]

59. Seasonal adjustments = fictitious jobs

BLS creates jobs out of thin air all the time. They are called "seasonal adjustments". BLS simply assumes that the auto manufacturers are adding jobs at this time of year because they always do--er did. They also assume that the actual number of people looking for jobs decreases in the fall because people go back to school and if you are a student you are not unemployed. The BLS has become the biggest bunch of crap since the smoking mushroom cloud from Iraq.

Better measures of unemployment would be increasing or decreasing levels of income tax and actual payroll numbers which the government knows to the exact penny because of said taxes. The whole concept of surveying and sampling and predicting is absurd. It is akin to NASA trying to launch the space shuttle by doing a reading on goat entrails instead of using their super computers.

[Ghost Dog]

67. Yes. Cf. ZeroHedge:

An Alternative Read On Today's "Bullish" Jobs Data
Submitted by Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon

Economists and stock bulls cheered this morning's better-than-expected November employment report. But was the data as good as it seemed? Consider the following:

... consider ... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-alternative-read-todays-bullish-jobs-data

comment by Problem Is
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 17:03

The financial bloggers are destroying the BLS numbers en masse and the Obama Bullshit Express. Propaganda slowly fails in the light of facts...

...

comment by Cursive
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 17:33

From earlier ZH post, in case anyone missed it:

TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 255,000 jobs in November. This past month’s results were an improvement of only 10.2% from the 284,000 jobs lost in October.

source: Charles Biderman of TrimTabs

[mullard12ax7]

57. This helps explain the corruption

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

The BLS does just invent/guess numbers every month. To understand the govt lies, all you have to do is download pdf files, burying yourself in bullshit and understand that the government first and foremost creates numbers to serve their purposes and no one elses.

[Dr.Phool]

50. Obama nixes this stimulus and jobs bill.

Watch the video.

http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/12/student-hey-obama-legalize-it.php?ref=fpb


He finishes with a remark, that we'll never return to a production economy. :banghead:

[Demeter]

52. Obama Is Out to Lunch

The US is STILL premier in agriculture--perhaps there aren't as many jobs in it, but it is still an enormous part of our economy, and one of the few things keeping us afloat. And if oil and its products grow scarce, agriculture will demand a lot more human labor.

The US will HAVE to go back to producing for itself--we cannot keep paying other nations for manufactured goods and then defrauding them with worthless securities and debt. It's not going to happen any other way. Otherwise, we sit in the dark and freeze to death.

And as for services--how many people are willing to pay for the privilege of being robbed? Not too many.

[Tansy_Gold]

56. You're more polite than I, Demeter

I'd have said Obama is a fucking idiot.

Oh, did I say that? My bad.



Tansy Gold, warming up for WEE

[AnneD]

62. How about a ....

Stepford Wives weekend.....

Who tinkered with our candidate??????????

[Demeter]

63. Thanks for the Chuckle and the Reminder

I have to go get the Younger Kid so she can get her car--so I'm starting NOW and will get back I hope, later...

[Hawkowl]

60. He is self destructing

I believe Obama doesn't really want a second term. It is almost like he is bound and determined to fuck up. Similar to John Edwards having an affair or Bill Clinton's lying penis. Either that or this man is one monumental idiot on the scale of George Bush but simply has managed how to read a teleprompter. Maybe this is why Obama gave such high praise to Reagan once during the campaign? Anyway, I fully expect Obama to announce in 2011 that he won't seek a second term similar to LBJ.

I don't HATE Obama but I am beginning to intensify my dislike and contempt for him and the blind adoration of his supporters.

[Tansy_Gold]

65. I think he is very much like Reagan, except that

Reagan was a professional actor to start out with and became a politician.

Obama just likes playing the role of politician. It's not real for him. It's a performance, nothing more.

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players:
They have their exits and their entrances;
And one man in his time plays many parts,


So quick bright things come to confusion.



Tansy Gold

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

58. Fantastic toon.

[truthisfreedom]

64. I wonder what the FDIC has in store for us this evening.

Anyone want to take a guess how many banks close? How about... 5?

[Ghost Dog]

72. Bank Failures: AmTrust, Ohio, and 3 more inGeorgia

Bank Failures #127 & 128: Down Goes AmTrust
by CalculatedRisk on 12/04/2009 06:12:00 PM

From the FDIC: HeritageBank of the South, Albany, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Tattnall Bank, Reidsville, Georgia

The Tattnall Bank, Reidsville, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, The Tattnall Bank had total assets of $49.6 million and total deposits of approximately $47.3 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $13.9 million. .... The Tattnall Bank is the 127th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 24th in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First Security National Bank, Norcross, earlier today.

And from the FDIC: New York Community Bank, Westbury, New York, Assumes All of the Deposits of AmTrust Bank, Cleveland, Ohio

AmTrust Bank, Cleveland, Ohio, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 27, 2009, AmTrust Bank had total assets of approximately $12.0 billion and total deposits of approximately $8.0 billion. ...

As part of this transaction, the FDIC will acquire a cash participant instrument. This will serve as additional consideration for the transaction. The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $2.0 billion.

Furthermore, the FDIC transferred to New York Community Bank all qualified financial contracts to which AmTrust was a party.

... AmTrust Bank is the 128th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Ohio. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Peoples Community Bank, West Chester, which closed on July 31, 2009.

Posted by CalculatedRisk on 12/04/2009 06:12:00 PM 3 Comments ShareThis
Labels: Bank Failure, FDIC

Bank Failures #125 & 126: Two more in Georgia
by CalculatedRisk on 12/04/2009 05:11:00 PM

From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia

The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of November 6, 2009, The Buckhead Community Bank had total assets of approximately $874.0 million and total deposits of approximately $838.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $241.4 million. ... The Buckhead Community Bank is the 125th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 22nd in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was United Security Bank, Sparta, on November 6, 2009.

From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Security National Bank, Norcross, Georgia

First Security National Bank, Norcross, Georgia, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver....

As of September 30, 2009, First Security National Bank had total assets of approximately $128.0 million and total deposits of approximately $123.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $30.1 million. ... First Security National Bank is the 126th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 23rd in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was The Buckhead Community Bank, Atlanta, earlier today.

/... http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/