Japan Economy Grows 1.3%, (3.8x) Less Than Initial Estimate of 4.8%

[denem]

Source: Bloomberg

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s economy expanded less than a third of the pace initially reported in the three months to September as companies slashed spending.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 1.3 percent, slower than the 4.8 percent reported last month, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The revision, which was deeper than the predictions of all but one of the 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, also showed that price declines accelerated.

Stocks fell after the report underscored concern about the sustainability of a recovery that is under threat from deflation and a rising yen. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama unveiled a 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion) stimulus package yesterday to ensure the economy avoids another recession next year.

“These numbers were weak,” said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “The stimulus will have a positive effect on the economy. But it’s not, in any way, enough to offset how steeply third-quarter GDP was revised.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=andPoctuK0EM&pos=2

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I'm not sure why we bother with the first figures anymore, and there has to be a huge question mark on the finals too. These so-called "revisions" defy belief.

Consider the US jobless figures for September, 2009: First figures 263,000 net jobs lost; Second revision: 219,000; and last Friday's figures, 139,000.

That's not quite the 3x mismatch of Japan's estimate, but to quote J.M. Keynes, these sort of statistics are a casino. Welcome, I guess, to a new era of Enron numbers.

[Rapier09]

1. When I first read this

This is turning out to be an interesting recovery.

[Garam_Masala]

2. China projected to grow 8.8% in 2010, India grew 7.9% July-Sept 3009

China Economy Growth article:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/03/content_12578674.htm

India Economy Growth article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125983454805874425.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

China is projected to grow to a bigger economy than US economy in 15 years,
India will need 35 years.

400 years ago these two economies were the largest in the world and looks like
they will again regain that status.

[denem]

3. You trust 'official' Chinese numbers?

[Garam_Masala]

5. With a grain of salt....

but there is a lot of evidence of economic activity in China.

They are buying all the oil then get
all the coal and aluminum and iron ores they can hands on

and they are building one coal fired power plant every week!

[TacticalPeek]

4. Lying boosters.

It's a game.

[exboyfil]

6. At 3x and 4xs our population

you would expect their economy to get larger than ours over time (especially as salaries move towards a global mean through globalization).