STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 11, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 10, 2009

Dow... 10,405.83 +68.78 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq... 2,190.86 +7.13 (+0.33%)
S&P 500... 1,102.35 +6.40 (+0.58%)
Gold future... 1,126 +5.50 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.49 +0.06 (+1.78%)
30-Year Bond 4.51 +0.09 (+2.02%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Yield Curve Steepest Since 1980; Hard Times Ahead in 2010
BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

The bond market is starting to show signs of concern over budget deficits and the corresponding supply of treasuries. Please consider Treasury Yield Curve Steepest Since at Least 1980 After Auction.

Treasuries fell, with the gap in yields between 2- and 30-year securities reaching the widest margin since at least 1980, after a $13 billion offering of 30- year bonds drew lower-than-forecast demand.

The so-called yield curve touched 372 basis points, the most in at least 29 years, as the bonds drew a yield of 4.52 percent. The so-called yield curve has widened from 191 basis points at the end of 2008, with the Fed anchoring its target rate at a record-low range of zero to 0.25 percent and the Treasury extending the average maturity of U.S. debt.

Treasury officials on Nov. 4 announced a long-term target of six to seven years for the average maturity of Treasury debt and said the department wants to cut back on its issuance of bills and two- and three-year notes. The shift to longer- maturity debt has raised concern that investors will demand higher yields to offset the risk of inflation as government spending drives the deficit to a record $1.4 trillion.

“The market is continuing to worry about the massive amount of Treasury issuance that’s going to hit the market well into next year,” said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “In the very short term, part of it is going to be supply accommodation.”

.....

If the US$ breaks North in a sustained way as it appears poised to do, and if treasury yields break higher as well (on that I have no firm opinion), 2010 is going to be one miserable year for nearly everyone.

Note that a seasonal favorable period for treasuries ends this month. Moreover, March-May is typically the worst period for government bonds because of budgeting and tax refunds. However, one should not lightly dismiss the possibility of another flight to safety play if commodities and equities head dramatically lower as I ultimately expect them to do.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. And the auctions are not drawing buyers..hmmm n/t

[Demeter]

17. Maybe If you could buy them with a credit card....

the govt. wants cash up front.

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. This kind of talk won't help....got your ears on Timmy?

THE OPPOSITION finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the United States government could default on its debt, triggering an ''economic Armageddon'' which will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance.

Senator Joyce told the Herald yesterday he did not mean to alarm the public but there needed to be a debate about Australia's ''contingency plan'' for a sovereign debt default by the US or even by a local state government.

''A default by the US means complete economic collapse around the world and the question we have got to ask ourselves is where are we in that,'' Senator Joyce said

http://www.smh.com.au/national/joyce-warns-of-us-armageddon-20091210-kmby.html
..............................................
The world may not think that borrowing at 37X basis points and lending from the discount window at 0% is such a great idea. For that matter, neither do I :grr:

[mbperrin]

30. Default would have many horrendous effects, but at least two happy ones:

Nearly instant balancing of the federal budget with elimination of interest income; and nobody would ever loan us money again! Thus making a repeat impossible.

[FarCenter]

40. But it would pretty much end Social Security

Since the social security funds are held in Treasury Bonds.

[mbperrin]

45. I'm afraid they're in the process of stealing even that right now.

All the scare talk about SS when there are trillions in surplus.

I did note there would be many horrendous effects, and this would be one.

My Social Security has been stolen anyway. I paid in between 1969 and 1997. 28 years. Then I began to teach. I will only be able to draw my Texas Teacher Retirement, and that makes me ineligible for SS. We've been trying to change the law for a decade, but no luck so far. They tell us that would be double dipping. Ignore that we double paid.

[Ghost Dog]

43. In most parts, the likes of Senator Joyce would simply get "disappeared"

(Yes, we know that happens in the USA too). Nevertheless:

Batten hatches. Be prepared for this increasing free (often stoopid) speech hurricane.

We will have planetary governance intelligence in the end.

And, yes, it will probably be sinister (so, what's new?).

(Edit/aside: Instruments just twitched, a bit crazily, again, navigator).

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Nov
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Nov
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Retail Sales Nov
Briefing.com 1.0%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior 1.4%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Nov
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.2%

09:55 Mich Sentiment-Prel Dec
Briefing.com 69.7
Consensus 68.8
Prior 67.4

10:00 Business Inventories Oct
Briefing.com -0.2%
Consensus -0.2%
Prior -0.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[rfranklin]

31. Nov retail sales up for third month...

Dec. 11, 2009, 8:30 a.m. EST

Nov retail sales up for third month in last four
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 1.3% in November, the third increase in the past four months, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. The sales gains were widespread across most kinds of retail outlets, including autos, gasoline, department stores and hardware stores. Only clothes and furniture store sales declined. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for retail sales to rise 0.5%. Excluding autos, sales rose 1.2%, the biggest gain since January. Wall Street had expected a increase of 0.4%. Excluding gasoline and autos, sales increased 0.6%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=E6C8D086-B4C4-403D-8E9B-AA273E1B06E5

[FarCenter]

41. The retail increase is probably due to increased prices, not volumes

Since auto and light truck volumes were essentially unchanged year-over-year, the increase in autos is all due to an increas in prices. Same for gasoline.

In some cases, like gasoline, wholesale price increases are being passed along to the consumer.

In other cases, like autos, it is likely that enough retailers have left the business so that the remaining ones are gaining some pricing power due to reduced competition.

This does not indicate a need for more employees, since it doesn't take more salespeople to sell the same number of cars at a higher price.

  11/08     11/09        
 115,767   114,654       Autos, domestic
 243,309   263,500       Autos, import
 240,364   217,426       Light trucks, domestic
 147,349   151,348       Light trucks, import
========  ========
 746,789   746,928       Total

[ozymandius]

3. Oil near $71 amid weak heating oil, diesel demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $71 a barrel Friday in Asia as a warm winter and struggling economy in the U.S. undermine demand for crude products like diesel and heating oil.
.....

Oil prices have fallen about 13 percent since October on investor concern U.S. crude demand isn't picking up amid the broader economic recovery. Consumption of crude distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, has fallen about 20 percent from a year earlier, Barclays Capital said in a report.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.73 cent to $1.91 while gasoline gained 1.26 cents to $1.85. Natural gas fell 4.7 cents to $5.25 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. New jobless claims rise, trade gap narrows

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, but a surprise narrowing in the trade gap in October indicated the economy remained firmly on a steady growth path.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose 17,000 to 474,000 last week, after five straight weeks of declines, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

The rise in claims was blamed on seasonal layoffs in industries such as construction and a rebound in applications that had been held back during the Thanksgiving holiday week.
.....

In another report, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit shrank 7.6 percent to $32.9 billion in October as a weak dollar helped boost exports. Analysts had expected the gap to widen to about $36.8 billion.
.....

In another boost to the economy, U.S. households' net worth -- the difference between the value of assets and liabilities -- rose $2.7 trillion to $53.4 trillion in the third quarter, Federal Reserve data showed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091210/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[ozymandius]

5. Obama plans TARP aid for small businesses: report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama administration plans to channel money from the government financial bailout fund to small businesses in an effort to stem the political and economic fallout of high unemployment, the Washington Post said in its Friday editions.

The Post quoted unnamed sources as saying the White House is considering one plan that would spin off a new entity from the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program and provide money to banks without restrictions so long as the funds were used to support loans to small businesses.

As an alternative, officials would also be prepared to ask Congress to modify TARP itself by easing pay limits and other restrictions that would be imposed on small business lenders, the newspaper said.

The report comes a week after President Barack Obama hosted a White House jobs summit to look for ways to curb 10 percent unemployment as the U.S. Congress enters an election year.
.....

Advocates say the small business sector, typically a leading driver of job creation, continues to be stymied by frozen credit lines despite massive U.S. taxpayer support for banks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091211/bs_nm/us_usa_bailout_smallbusiness_1

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I wonder if Obama has mentioned this to Geithner yet.

[ozymandius]

6. The Troubles at Kroger: Frugal Consumers

Investors dumped shares of Kroger Co. on Tuesday, and selling continued on Wednesday, after the supermarket giant posted third-quarter results that fell significantly short of Wall Street's expectations. Kroger shook up investors when it posted an unexpected loss of $874.9 million, or $1.35 a share, and warned that it didn't expect a significant improvement in its business until the second half of 2010.

Tuesday's plunge was especially sharp, with the stock falling 12%, making it the day's worst-performing stock. Kroger's doom-and-gloom forecast is also causing investors to have jitters about rivals, such as Supervalu and Safeway, whose shares fell 9% and 7%, respectively, on Tuesday. Even shares of Walmart, Whole Foods and Costco did not go unscathed, slipping as well.
.....

Although Kroger gained market share, its bottom line took a hit. "We certainly sold more units, but at much lower retail prices," said Dillon. Prices fell particularly hard on meat, dairy and produce, he said. When charges (related to the writedown of the company's Ralphs division in Southern California) are excluded, Kroger posted earnings of 27 cents a share, which were still far below analysts' consensus estimate of 37 cents a share and the year-ago earnings of 39 cents. Dillon expects business to remain dismal through the first half of 2010, and ratcheted down guidance for fiscal 2009 by 30 cents a share, to a range of $1.60 to $1.70 a share.

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1946697,00.html?xid=rss-biztech-yahoo

[Demeter]

19. Krogers Dramatically Lowered Prices This Fall

The loss leaders were offered at a dime less than the best ever. Milk at $1.75/gallon! It hasn't been that cheap in a decade.

Well, that's what happens when you are in the manufacturing Midwest, and the govmint doesn't believe in manufacturing any more.

[DemReadingDU]

60. Milk has been under $2 in most of our grocery stores

Cheese also has been much cheaper. Spouse thinks the package is the serving, so he has been indulging in his favorite cheeses. $1 to $1.25 per 8 oz package. What a deal!

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. Now that the big chains have trashed the mom and pop stores

they now are facing off against each other. Their business plans require same store YTY increases, which just ain't gonna happen. There is going to be further contraction, vacant real estate and eventually just one or two players left.

It doesn't take a lot of imagination to figure out who will be left.......And I freakin hate Wally World

[ozymandius]

7. Goldman Sachs Stock Bonus Plan to Defer Compensation Expense

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s plan to pay top executives in restricted stock will let the firm defer compensation expenses, reducing what it must report this year after being pilloried for setting aside more than $16 billion for employees.

The awards will consist of so-called shares-at-risk that start vesting next year and can’t be sold for five years, the New York-based firm said yesterday. Because the expense isn’t recorded until they vest, the firm avoids incurring an immediate cost, said Robert Willens, founder of Robert Willens LLC, which advises investors on accounting and tax rules.
.....

The new policy, announced yesterday, will apply to the 30 members of Goldman Sachs’s management committee, including Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar and the leaders of the firm’s global and regional divisions.
.....

Switching to restricted stock awards won’t camouflage how much the firm is paying its five named executive officers, whose pay will be disclosed in the annual proxy statement and in Form 4 filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, said Graef Crystal, a compensation specialist and consultant to Bloomberg News.

“The game’s up the minute the proxy comes out,” Crystal said. “In fact, the minute they award it, it will show up in the Form 4.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahkGBrrRCH38&pos=3

[Demeter]

20. That's Okay. Goldman's will Be Put Out of Our Misery In 5 Years

and the bonus babies will be deprived. Just like most of the engineers I knew who got stock incentives in the 80's....

Kassandra predicts!

[ozymandius]

8. Asian Shares End Mostly Up; China Stocks Lower Despite Data

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Asian shares ended mostly higher Friday after data from China appeared to show that the economic recovery there is gaining momentum while brighter U.S. jobs data lifted stocks on Wall Street.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Average posted a solid rebound after three days of declines, finishing 2.5% higher at 10107.87.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.6%, South Korea's Kospi added 0.3%, Taiwan's Taiex advanced 1.5% while India's Sensex gave up 0.5% in afternoon trading.
.....

In Mumbai, markets turned weaker after data showed October industrial production rose by a lower-than-expected 10.3%, compared with a revised 9.6% growth in September. The median estimate of 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires was for a 10.5% increase from a year earlier. Shares of State Bank of India declined 1.4% and ICICI Bank fell 1.3%.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091211-703508.html?mod=rss_Global_Stocks

[ozymandius]

9. House Trims State Powers in Debate on Financial Rules Overhaul

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House scaled back state power over national banks and tightened rules for derivatives as lawmakers head toward a vote on tougher regulation of Wall Street over objections of Republicans and financial companies.
.....

The measure is central to lawmakers’ effort to end government rescues of firms deemed too big to fail, which led to last year’s bailouts of New York-based American International Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. The banking industry, Republican lawmakers and the nation’s biggest business lobby are fighting to scale back the legislation.
.....

The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act adopts priorities President Barack Obama set out in June for strengthening financial rules. The bill would let regulators unwind failed systemically important firms, sets up a council to monitor companies for systemic risk and creates a $150 billion industry-supported fund the government would use to dissolve large failed firms.
.....

The measure requires the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to curb excessive speculation by restricting trading volumes on oil and currency futures. It also requires broker- dealers including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and “major swaps participants” like Fannie Mae to use regulated clearinghouses to process standard derivatives contracts that are normally accepted for clearing and deemed mandatory by regulators.

Some derivatives transactions would also be forced onto so- called swap execution facilities. Hedge funds, airlines and other corporate end-users that don’t pose a risk to the broader financial system won exclusions from the bill’s clearing, trading and collateral requirements.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAY5xsQfCcLU&pos=9

[ozymandius]

10. Why Didn’t Canada’s Housing Market Go Bust?

Despite their many points of similarity, housing markets in the United States and Canada have fared quite differently since the onset of the financial crisis. Unlike the U.S., Canada has not experienced a dramatic increase in mortgage defaults, nor has any Canadian bank required a government bailout. As a result, observers such as The Economist have pointed to Canada as “a country that got things right.”
.....

The Canada and U.S. housing market comparison suggests that relaxed lending standards likely played a critical role in the U.S. housing bust. Monetary policy was very similar in both countries from 2000 to 2008, but housing prices rose much faster in the U.S. than in Canada. This suggests that some other factor both drove the more rapid appreciation in U.S. prices and set the stage for the housing bust. A likely candidate is cross-country differences in the structure and regulation of subprime lending markets. That mortgage delinquencies began to climb before the recession in the U.S. but only began to rise recently in Canada (after the economic slowdown began), points to the significance of those structural and regulatory differences in explaining the U.S. housing crash.
.....

Unemployment rates were stable throughout 2007 and early 2008, at roughly 5 percent in the U.S. and 6 percent in Canada. The timing of the recent deterioration in labor markets has also been similar, with unemployment rates rising to 9.4 percent (U.S.) and 8.6 percent (Canada) by July 2009. What these data reveal is that mortgage delinquencies began to increase in the United States before the rise in unemployment, but in Canada they remained low and only began to increase after the rise in unemployment in 2008. That difference is a key clue to determining what caused the housing bust.
.....

Securitization has also been less common in Canada than in the United States, with roughly 25 percent of Canadian mortgages securitized in 2007 versus nearly 60 percent in the U.S. The Canadian securitization market has grown rapidly over the past decade, rising from roughly 5 percent of mortgages in 1998 to over 25 percent in 2008. However, in many ways, the Canadian market resembles the early stages of the U.S. mortgage securitization market, as most securitized mortgages in Canada are backed by an explicit government guarantee. This government guarantee requires limits on borrowers’ debt-service ratios and amortization periods, which makes it more difficult for lenders to offer some types of subprime loans.

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2009/0909.cfm

[Doctor_J]

82. Mostly because the Canadian banks don't get to gamble

more Reaganomics in action

[ozymandius]

11. Poll: TARP Bonuses Bad, Bank Fails Worse; TBTF OK

From Ritholtz:

The folks in the United States seem to have some clear ideas about what they like and dislike, want and don’t want.

Dislikes? Bankers, Bonuses, and Congressmen.

Wants? Public Works programs, Jobs.

Paying for all that? The Rich.

That’s the result of a pair of surveys out this week from Bloomberg. The numbers are less than encouraging for bankers concerned about their reps:

• 75% of Americans believe banks that got TARP money shouldn’t pay any bonuses;

• 51% say banks that have repaid the government shouldn’t be rewarding their employees so soon;

• 64% said bailing out the banks was a bad idea.

• Over half said banks should be subject to stricter regulation;

• Only 31% would allow troubled banks to fail;

• Only 10% favor breaking up big banks.

I am surprised — but I guess I should not be — that so few people want to see capitalism operate by allowing failed banks to, well, fail; Even more surprising is so few Americans want to brerak up the behemoths . . .

Some people get it. The 31% figure on allowing banks to fail does not surprise me. Too many people have a gross misunderstanding of what "bank failure" means. This refers to the misplaced paranoia over losing everything. But only 10% would break up the Bankster's hideouts? :wtf:

[Demeter]

21. Failure Is Internal, Like Illness, Breakup is External--Regulation

The theory being that "I'm all right!" but my competitor is carrion.

[AnneD]

12. LyondellBasell officials meet with Indian suitors

Officials with India's Reliance Industries and LyondellBasell Industries met in Houston this week as a pending offer by Reliance to buy a controlling stake in the bankrupt Dutch chemical giant remains on the table.
Representatives from both companies dined in a private room Wednesday evening at Kiran's Restaurant and Bar, confirmed a manager at the upscale Indian restaurant.
Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance and India's wealthiest man, did not attend but was in Houston and was sent a take-out meal, the manager said.
Last month, LyondellBasell said it received a preliminary cash offer from Reliance for a controlling interest in the company upon its emergence from Chapter 11. Based in Rotterdam, The Netherlands, LyondellBasell has some 4,000 employees in the Houston area.

more...

/www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/6764259.html

read the comments

[ozymandius]

13. Harvard Suspends Construction of Larry Summers’ $1 Billion Science Center

From Naked Capitalism:

Why hasn’t a group of disgruntled Harvard alumni circulated a statement itemizing the damage that Larry Summers wrought as dean of the University? Yeah, I know, it would be divisive, grown-ups are discouraged from raising uncomfortable questions, or worse, demanding accountability of leaders.

But Summers did a great deal of damage to Harvard, and has a less than operational moral compass.. He clearly aspires to have another big job in DC, like the Fed chair, so it is important to shine a harsh light on his abject performance (and that’s before we get to the biggest issue, that he is a long-standing protege of Bob Rubin, who still seems to wield considerable influence).

From the New York Times:

Harvard announced Thursday that it would indefinitely suspend construction on a high-tech science complex in the Allston neighborhood of Boston because of money problems….

As part of a larger long-term expansion into Allston — a pet project of Lawrence H. Summers, Dr. Faust’s predecessor at Harvard and now President Obama’s chief economic adviser — the university also bought a string of buildings there over the last 20 years. But many have remained vacant, to the chagrin of Allston residents who have accused the university of buying land and holding onto it, a practice known as land banking.

The four-building science center, estimated to cost at least $1 billion, was originally scheduled to be finished in 2011. Dr. Faust’s announcement comes 10 months after she announced plans to slow the pace of the project while the university assessed whether it could continue. Harvard has since disclosed that its endowment declined 27 percent from June 2008 to June 2009, to $26 billion, and the university has made several cost-cutting moves.

NYT story

I do encourage Harvard University to consider renaming an existing facility in honor of Larry Summers. A sewage treatment plant, perhaps?

[Demeter]

23. Larry Summers is Steering the Economy Towards "Structural Adjustment" By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24136.htm

December 08, 2009 "Information Clearing House" -- There's no fixed number of greenbacks in a vault at the Treasury which limit how much the federal government can spend. Since the US pays its debts in its own currency--it can print as many dollars as it pleases. Of course, if boosting the money supply triggers inflation, the Fed has to withdraw liquidity and raise interest rates. But that's not the problem at present. The problem is how to zap the economy back to life. The problem is how to get 16 million people out of unemployment lines and back to work. That's the real challenge. The problem is political not economic. Obama is surrounded by industry reps who are trying to scare him about the size of the deficits. But deficits aren't the problem; unemployment is. Once people get back to work and build their savings, their creditworthiness will improve, and the next economic expansion will begin. When more people are paying into the system, the deficits will come down. But the deficits won't come down if tens of millions of people are still on the sidelines and forced to cut their spending. Judging by last Thursday's speech at the "Jobs Summit", Obama still doesn't grasp this:

"But I want to be clear," Obama boomed. "While I believe that government has a critical role in creating the conditions for economic growth, ultimately true economic recovery is only going to come from the private sector. We don't have enough public dollars to fill the hole of private dollars that was created as a consequence of the crisis. It is only when the private sector starts to reinvest again, only when our businesses start hiring again and people start spending again and families start seeing improvement in their own lives again that we're going to have the kind of economy that we want. That's the measure of a real economic recovery."

This is nonsense. When Obama says "We don't have enough public dollars to fill the hole of private dollars that was created by the crisis." He's just flat wrong. The government can print as much money as it wants; it's not "revenue constrained". What keeps the Fed from printing its way out of every jam, is the fear of inflation. But, consider this: inflation fears never stopped Fed chair Ben Bernanke from hosing down the entire financial system with $11.4 trillion, did it? Also, the Fed never hesitated to bulk up excess reserves at the banks by $1 trillion so bankers could shove it into high-risk assets and make windfall profits for themselves while the real economy drifted into coma. The only time the Fed's "inflation alarm" goes off is when there's the remote chance that someone on the low end of the economic food-chain might benefit from a government jobs program. Then the trumpets blare, the lights blink red, and Bernanke scuttles up to Capital Hill with dire warnings of impending doom. It's all politics. Bernanke's world view is shaped by institutional bias, the same as Summers and Geithner. Regrettably, Obama has aligned himself with this swarm of rogues.

Obama again:

"Now, let me be clear. I am open to every demonstrably good idea, and I want to take every responsible step to accelerate job creation. We also, though, have to face the fact that our resources are limited. When we walked in, there was an enormous fiscal gap between the money that is going out and the money coming in. The recession has made that worse because of fewer tax receipts and more demands made on government for things like unemployment insurance. So we can't make any ill-considered decisions right now, even with the best of intentions. We're going to have to be surgical and we're going to have to be creative. We're going to have to be smart and strategic. We'll need to look beyond the old standbys and fallbacks and come up with the best ideas that give us the biggest bang for the buck." (Remarks by the President and Vice President at the Opening Session of the Jobs and Economic Growth Forum)

This is infuriating. Our resources are NOT limited. Obama is just parroting the GOP "deficit hawk mantra". Hasn't the president noticed the Fed's printing presses purring-along at full-throttle to keep the financial markets flooded with liquidity? And where does he think demand is going to come from if consumers continue to cut back sharply on spending? When consumers and businesses stop spending, the government has to pick up the slack or the economy nosedives. Fiscal expansion--particularly through government jobs programs--is the best way to put money in the hands of people who will spend it pronto. It's a way to circumvent the credit bottleneck created by insolvent banks. Surely, Obama's advisors realize this, which is why there must be a more sinister motive behind the rhetoric. Here's how economist Marshall Auerback sums it up:

"The Obama Administration continues to fantasize that it can get away with creating Potemkin prosperity of levitating asset prices via trillions of dollars of financial guarantees to Wall Street in lieu of deploying fiscal resources needed to lay the groundwork for the real thing.

The budget deficits can maintain growth in demand to keep income growing and hence support private saving. Budget deficits should aim to fill in that “hole in private savings” and not allow aggregate demand to “fall through it”, which would lead to income and employment collapses. Government spending has to rise so as to ensure that firms are willing to maximize the use of their productive capacity, which in turn generates further employment. You don’t need a job summit to figure that one out, Mr. President. The only “resource deficiency” here is one of political courage.

The only unemployment increase worth applauding would be the sacking of the President’s entire economics team, all of whom persistently regurgitate deficit myths that constrain output and employment and prevent us from recouping genuine prosperity." ("Jobs Summit Charade: Is the government out of money, or is Obama completely misguided?" Marshall Auerback, New deal 2.0)

Amen, to that. Summers, Geithner and Bernanke should have been booted down the White House stairwell long ago. Instead, Obama is still in the thrall of Chicago school "trickle down" economics. Meanwhile, the nation's most valuable resource--its people--remain idle waiting for government to do what the private sector is no longer capable of doing; create jobs. Obama's task is to fill the hole left by the sudden drop in personal spending. That means government jobs programs to redistribute wealth, rebuild demand, and get the economy rolling again. Here's how progressive economist James Galbraith sums it up:

"So long as we have people who need jobs, we should find them work. There are better and worse ways to do this, but the money isn't a limit. It's just a tool to get the job done. And if we do too much, we see it in the jobs. As joblessness falls, the private sector will pick up. Government can then ease off. Mission accomplished! Our real choice is between a large bold program that works quickly, and a slow cautious program that doesn't seem to work at all."

Unemployment is not going to bounce back like it did after previous recessions. In fact, unemployment is following the same flat-line trajectory as business investment. Too many high-paying jobs have been shipped overseas; too many businesses have moved offshore. Free trade has changed the economic landscape dramatically. If Obama doesn't take decisive action now, the wealth gap will widen, double-digit unemployment will be the norm, and a permanent underclass will emerge in America. The social unrest that this will generate, will be significant. It would be wiser to avoid potential disruptions and preemptively address the minimal needs of ordinary people in distress. That means jobs, lots of jobs. Here's what Paul Krugman anticipates if we continue along the same path we are now:

"What’s going to happen, economically and politically... I have a vision (but) It’s fairly grim..
Start with the short-term economics.... unemployment is likely to stay near its current level for a year or more.
And politically it’s hard to do anything about that. Those economic half-measures have landed the Obama administration in a trap: much of the political establishment now sees stimulus as having been discredited by events, so that it’s very hard to come back and scale the policy up to where it should have been in the first place....

The result, then, will be high unemployment leading into the 2010 elections, and corresponding Democratic losses. These losses will be worse because Obama, by pursuing a uniformly pro-banker policy without even a gesture to popular anger over the bailouts, has ceded populist energy to the right and demoralized the movement that brought him to power.

Along with this will come a process of defining prosperity down. All the wise heads will tell us that 8 or 9 percent unemployment — maybe even 10 percent — is the “new normal”, and that only irresponsible people want to do anything about the situation.

So what I see is years of terrible job markets, combined with political paralysis....as best as I can tell, the administration strategy is to insist that only a few minor course corrections are needed, and to wait for the jobs to start coming in." (Paul Krugman, "Things to Come", The Conscience of a Liberal, New York Times)

Obama is deliberately precipitating another crisis on the advice of his chief lieutenants. Summers and Geithner are steering the economy back into recession so they can implement the same austerity measures and "structural adjustment" programs which have been used throughout the developing world. It's "starve the beast" all over again. As the stimulus dries up, revenue-depleted states will be forced to auction off public lands, resources, parks and other assets to the highest bidder. The banksters and robber barons will feast on the country's treasures while the middle class is crushed by the freefalling dollar, lost home equity, and persistent high unemployment.

Government jobs programs can help to avert another tragedy, but time is running out.

[exboyfil]

25. Dr. Faust?

Did she have to sell her soul to get the Harvard Presidency?

A humanities type shuts down a science facility construction. Is it a conspiracy?

[FarCenter]

42. Harvard should leave the study of reality to MIT

and concentrate on Economics, Theology and other studies of imaginary things.

[exboyfil]

79. I will let my Brother in Law

the Biochemist know since he got his Piled Higher and Deeper from Harvard.

[AnneD]

15. At last...a real green shoot and good news!!!!!!!

Peeps gets their own store.



http://video.ap.org/?f=TXHOU&pid=5Q7MjkyqccGG7DIUmztXiVf61YhCP7fe&fg=rss


let the aging of the peeps begin:9

[ozymandius]

16. What news!

Some green shoots after all.

[DemReadingDU]

22. my daughter loves Peeps

me, not so much. I will send her the video!

[AnneD]

49. I love my peeps aged......

I poke a few holes in the package and let them dry out. I get them dirt cheap after a holiday when they are $0.25 a box. It is a cheap guilty thrill but then I'm a guilty cheap date.

I'll post this site again-it's my favourite. It's my 'good minds gone astray' website....

www.peepresearch.org/

[DemReadingDU]

18. Matt Taibbi article in Rolling Stone

I was doing a search last night for the latest Matt Taibbi article, and I happened to find it in a Kucinich thread. But what is really odd, is that the poster has 0 number of postings. Here's the link to Taibbi's article.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4179165&mesg_id=4179622

[Roland99]

28. "Obama's Big Sellout" ... I keep trying to find just 4 paragraphs to quote

and I can't pinpoint one set of them.


a MUST-READ and even the most die-hard Obama worshiper will have to open their eyes.

[DemReadingDU]

29. and here's a short video from the article

Reading Taibbi, is like reading a small novel. It is difficult to highlight the best 4 paragraphs. Need to get my hard copy of the magazine.

video
http://taibbi.rssoundingboard.com/matt-taibbi-on-obamas-economy

In “Obama’s Big Sellout”, Matt Taibbi argues that President Obama has packed his economic team with Wall Street insiders intent on turning the bailout into an all-out giveaway. Rather than keeping his progressive campaign advisers on board, Taibbi says Obama gave key economic positions in the White House to the very people who caused the economic crisis in the first place. Taibbi also points to the ties Obama’s appointees have to one main in particular: Bob Rubin, the former Goldman Sachs co-chairman who served as Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton.

Click above for Taibbi’s video breakdown of his argument in which he identifies the major players on Obama’s economic team, untangles the web that ties them to Rubin and points to how these relationships play into the financial “reforms” the Democrats are currently pushing through Congress.
http://taibbi.rssoundingboard.com/matt-taibbi-on-obamas-economy

[Hugin]

46. ...

Rubin has also been a big name in the Citibank/Dubai linkage.

[Dr.Phool]

63. If they read that, they'd blow a gasket.

Frothing at the mouth in the corner, mumbling, "hater..hater..he never said...hater..hater".

That article just verifies what many of us, who've been here for a while, saw coming down the pike, even before the election. I saw what was coming, as soon as I saw the words "Chicago School of Economics" and "Rubin". But, it's worse than I even imagined.

One telling moment came in late 2007. The National Assn. of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, (NALEAO) was having their conference in Orlando. They were having a day-long Democratic Presidential Forum, and all 8 candidates were appearing. Three of us (Me, John Russell, and Mark Adams) had an invitation to spend the day in the Green Room with the candidates. Just us, security, and the candidates, with a few staffers.

My order of preference back then started with Kucinich and Edwards, and at the bottom were Obama and Clinton. We got to spend the day, one on one, or sometimes a couple of them at the same time, just sitting around bullshitting. The only two that didn't spend any time with us were, Hillary and Obama. They just breezed through for a few seconds, like it was too much of a bother for them, and left. I remarked then, that they seemed as though they were anointed, and didn't have time to spend with the rabble. Including the other candidates.

Funny how things worked out from then.

[Roland99]

67. That was my same order of preference, too.

[bread_and_roses]

32. you know - I can't even stand to read it carefully. Too unutterably painful

In a way, I can't even fully process the astonishing reversal Obama has pulled - though from the minute all those appointments - including Rahm - were announced and lauded by our oh-so-beltway-media, including the revolting NPR, I was in stunned aghastness that has not diminished. And every time the "dear leader" crowd here jumps up shouting "he didn't SAY this or that" I want to scream "didn't you see him? didn't you HEAR him? Did you watch that campaign and say "yayyyy....go Goldman! go Wall St? Go WAR WAR WAR!??"

sorry. rant off.

[Tansy_Gold]

39. I read the subhead and reached for my rubber stamp n/t

[AnneD]

50. My rubber stamp....

is so worn down from use.

[54anickel]

57. Great article from what I've read so far! Though, I keep thinking back to a post

from a few years ago, an article, from Bloomberg if I remember correctly, about a meeting between Wall Street and the Treasury. Not much detail other than a discussion of some new scheme that would be in the nation's best interest - it would just be difficult to get buy-in from those "less savvy" in the workings of investment vehicles.
I remember posting it, watching for follow-up articles on the meeting but the topic just sailed off into the dark of night - like it never happened. I looked for it several times but never could track it down. I made way too many posts back then to sift through them all. I had the feeling then that we were in for a major fleecing by TPTB.

Is it a sell-out on Obama's part, or a buy-in into some sort of financial apocalyptic hope now that he's "in the bubble". I always feared he was too green to be able to with-stand the mind games and group think of The Hill. I had hopes in those outsiders he surrounded himself with. I was absolutely ecstatic that he was hanging out with Volcker. But that article points to just how quickly this "sell-out" and dismissal of those great minds took place.
Either way, it's nuts!

Speaking of Paul....

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/12/09/volcker-no-time-for-return-to-business-as-usual/

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, speaking to the congress of Europe’s center-right political parties in Bonn, said “this is no time for a return to business as usual” in global finance.

“The rally in world stock markets from recession loans has brought renewed hopes on Wall Street in the City of London for a return to outlandish bonuses for financial operators and vigorous defense of established vested interests,” Mr. Volcker said, according to a prepared text of his remarks.

“Those hopes and positions must not distract us from what needs to be done,” he said to a congress of European People’s Parties.

Mr. Volcker, as he did a day earlier at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Finance conference outside London, called for separating the business of commercial banking from the riskier business of proprietary trading and hedge funds –- offering a government safety net of deposit insurance and emergency lending only to the traditional banking business.

Among other things, he also called for better risk management within financial institutions, more effective supervision by regulators, “better surveillance of the grossly swollen shadow world of derivatives, critically including the relatively new and not fully tested instrument of credit default swaps,” and common international approach to major issues led by the U.S. and Europe.

more...

[Dr.Phool]

76. Here's another.

I'll post it in the WEE also.

http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/17981


t’s the "smoking gun" that links Barack Obama with Bob Rubin-Goldman Sachs, free trade and cuts in entitlements. It’s the young Senator Barack Obama’s little commented on and little-known speech to the Hamilton Project in April, 2006, well before he became president.

Senator Barack Obama ran a stealth campaign for the presidency in which he took positions on issues that he obviously didn’t believe which explains why he jettisoned them early on (FISA; NAFTA renegotiation; DADT; DOMA etc.). But the REAL, unvarnished Obama was unveiled in a speech he gave as a Senator from Illinois in 2006. He spoke at the request of "my friend" Bob Rubin whose Goldman Sachs had just funded the Hamilton Project, a free trade think tank embedded in the Brookings Institution./>

I. Background: Why the Hamilton Project is Important.

/>
Obama’s Hamilton Project speech is vital to understanding the man since:

1) it shows the real Obama before his p.r./propaganda team repackaged him;

2) it shows his links, at an early age, to Bob Rubin and Goldman Sachs; he’s been owned by Goldman ever since;

3) it shows Obama has long been a free trader and lied to get votes when he promised to renegotiate NAFTA. He had no such intention and is philosophically opposed to such a renegotiation. He made that promise (and flip-flopped on it) to pander for union votes in Ohio while fighting Hillary for the nomination;

4) it shows Obama is in the bag for what Goldman really wants: free trade AND cuts to entitlements (including social security and medicare).

Before we examine Obama’s Hamilton Project speech, let’s pay tribute to a much earlier diary right here at Firedoglake which exposed this years ago. Hats off to Kirk James Murphy, M.D., whose diary, "The Hamilton Project: Same Corporatist Whine in New DLC Vessels" spelled this out back in February 13th, 2008. Dr. Murphy wrote in his diary this about the opening of the Hamilton Project:

Oh – the Senator who made time for the christening of the new corporatist think tank… the love child of the Clintons’ BFF Robert Rubin?
Sen Barack Obama.

The Hamilton Project was also written about even earlier by David Sirota (but he missed the Obama speech). Back in April, 2006, Sirota noted:

Wall Street Dems Unveil Plan to Undermine Progressives

Here’s a big shocker – the Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party today announced it would be beginning its new war in earnest on the grassroots elements of the party that are demanding serious public policy changes. As the Financial Times reports, Citigroup Chairman Bob Rubin held a press conference at the Brookings Institution to announce the formation of the so-called "Hamilton Project." After paying lip service to various economic problems afflicting the country, Rubin and his former Treasury colleague Roger Altman quickly let it be known exactly what they are up to.

(snip)

[Dr.Phool]

77. And add.

http://firedoglake.com/2008/02/13/the-hamilton-project-same-corporatist-whine-in-new-dlc-vessels/

The Hamilton Project: Same Corporatist Whine In New DLC Vessels

The Hamilton Project – the Financial Times loved it:

In that context, we welcome the launch yesterday by the Brookings Institution of a new platform – the Hamilton Project, named after America’s first Treasury Secretary – to address America’s looming economic challenges. Although composed mostly of Democrats, the group states a clear preference for market-based solutions to America’s problems. It rejects the latent signs of protectionism recently visible on Capitol Hill. But it makes a strong case for the state to play a more constructive role both in improving the efficiency of America’s market economy, but also in addressing the growing inequity of market outcomes.

And why shouldn’t the FT love the Hamilton Project? The Project was created by corporatists, Wall Street uber-powers, and DLC insiders.

In a suite of offices three doors down Massachusetts Avenue from the Brookings Institution headquarters, Hillary Clinton’s closest Wall Street allies are drawing up economic policy for the next Democratic administration.

The offices belong to the Hamilton Project, a small think tank created by Robert E. Rubin, Bill Clinton’s Treasury secretary and key economic adviser, and former Treasury deputy secretary Roger C. Altman, who would be a front-runner for the same job in a new Clinton administration.

The project’s research, so far, would be familiar to students of the first Clinton administration: creative, wonky proposals for softening the impact of globalization without interfering with international trade, most of them crafted with an eye to fiscal austerity and a balanced budget.



The key advisory role played by Rubin and Altman, two pre-eminent Democratic Party economic centrists, has drawn criticism from more left-leaning economic voices, who also tweak the presumptive nature of the project, given that not a single vote has yet been cast in the 2008 campaign. "One wag told me that their effort looks a lot like drafting the 2009 budget," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank aligned with the more populist, labor-friendly segment of the Democratic Party.



Rubin is a key Wall Street ally of both Clintons, and a dominant player in Democratic Party economic policy. Altman served as a liaison between Sen. Clinton and Wall Street leaders as she ramped up her presidential campaign late last year, according to a New York Democrat.

The tension between the Hamilton Project’s work and Sen. Clinton’s more populist economic talking points on the stump is one of the things that has made her place in the long-running party debate over trade, deficits and globalization less than clear.

Clinton critics point to her Wall Street allies as a reason Democrats should look elsewhere. "The people that are close to her … don’t have much really to point to in terms of the interest of working men and women," said former Michigan congressman David E. Bonior, Edwards’ campaign manager, who called President Clinton’s trade policies "a disaster for working people."

Lauded by the Senator who made time in a busy schedule for the Project’s launch:

"I would love just to sit here with these folks and listen because you have on this panel and in this room some of the most innovative, thoughtful policymakers, people who have both ideas but also ways of implementing them into action. Our country owes a great debt to a number of people who are in this room because they helped put us on a pathway of prosperity that we are still enjoying, despite the best efforts of some. (Laughter)

I want to thank Bob and Roger and Peter for inviting me to be here today. I wish I could be here longer. I am going to have to run after a few minutes because we do have an important issue relating to U.S.-India relations. But when Roger originally called to invite me, not only to this forum but to invite me to engage in this project, I couldn’t help but think that this was the sort of breath of fresh air that I think this town needs.
We have all known for some time that the forces of globalization have changed the rules of the game—how we work, how we prosper, how we compete with the rest of the word.

We all know that the coming baby boomers’ retirement will only add to the challenges that we face in this new era. Unfortunately, while the world has changed around us, Washington has been remarkably slow to adapt twenty-first century solutions for a twenty-first century economy. As so many of us have seen, both sides of the political spectrum have tended to cling to outdated policies and tired ideologies instead of coalescing around what actually works.

For , and I include myself in that category, too many of us have been interested in defending programs the way they were written in 1938, believing that if we admit the need to modernize these programs to fit changing times, then the other side will use those acknowledgements to destroy them altogether. On the right, there is a tendency to push for massive tax cuts, as Peter indicated from my speech at Knox College, no matter what the cost or who the target is, a view that stems from the belief that there is no role for government whatsoever in the challenges we face. Of course, neither of these approaches really works.



That is what I hope we will see from The Hamilton Project in the months and years to come. You have already drawn some of the brightest minds from academia and policy circles…. So I know that there are going to be wonderful ideas that are generated as a consequence of this project.

Not every idea will I embrace, and I hope that one of the roles that I can play, as a participant in this process, is to not only encourage the work but occasionally challenge it. I will give one simple example. I think that if you polled many of the people in this room, most of us are strong free traders and most of us believe in markets. …So, hopefully, this is not just going to be all of us preaching to the choir. Hopefully, part of what we are going to be doing is challenging our own conventional wisdom and pushing out the boundaries and testing these ideas in a vigorous and aggressive way.

But I can’t think of a better start, given the people who are participating today. I am glad that Brookings has been willing to provide a home for this wonderful effort."

Oh – the Senator who made time for the christening of the new corporatist think tank… the love child of the Clintons’ BFF Robert Rubin?

Sen Barack Obama.

What a party: two free traders duking it out for the nomination.

Tweedle corporatist-Dum, Tweedle corporatist-Dee.

I’d ask someone to wake me up when the nominations are decided, but no need to baather.

Stampeding sheep make quite the sound and fury.

Especially when the reasons for the hue and cry are woolly to start with.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. totally and completely and unashamedly OT -- but you're the smartest folks in the room

Does anyone know how to get rid of an ear worm?

Yesterday at a friend's house I caught a snippet of some classical music playing in the background. It's driving me nuts because I can't identify it. It's familiar enough that I was able to remember it and pick out the main melody on the piano, and I wasted far too much time last night searching through Brahms and Beethoven videos.

Is there a way to do a reverse search on music??????



Tansy Gold, crazier than usual

[Demeter]

27. Well, I Don't Know

but if you hum a few bars, I can try to pick it out...

Put on some Beach Boys or other hypnotically rhythmic pop.

[rfranklin]

33. A hundred bottles of beer on the wall, take one down...

pass it around, ninety nine bottles of beer on the wall....

[InkAddict]

34. Post the note letters, Tansy.

Do, a deer, a female deer
Ray, a drop of golden sun
Mi, a Name I call myself
Fa, a long, long way to run
So, a needle pulling thread
La, a long, long way to go
Ti, I drink w/jam and bread
That will bring us back to do, etc...


A line a measure with the use of spaces and hyphens for the count.

Seasonal possibilities: something from Nutcracker, Fleur d'Elise, Pacabel, Messiah, etc...
Other: Windham Hill Winter or December

[Tansy_Gold]

38. It's not the usual seasonal stuff

I checked out the 100 most popular themes (from kickassclassical???) and it's none of those. I know the Nutcracker, Fur Elise, Pacelbel, Messiah, Water Music, most Bach, plenty of Beethoven, Vivaldi, Holst, Smetana. Pathetique, Eroica, etc., etc.

I play piano more by ear than anything and I generally pick things out in whatever convenient key I find. I'll try later on, when I'm not in deadline work mode, to create some semblance of this theme.

*************

C 1/4 - F 1/2 - E 1/4 - F 1/4 - D 1/2 - C 1/4
F 1/4 - G 1/4 - A 1/8 - Bf 1/8 - A 1/8 - F 1/8 - G 1/4


Does that make sense?



Tansy Gold, crashing on her deadline but absolutely looney over this stupid melody, which will turn out to be something intimately familiar but it's NOT the Academic Festival Overture or Pomp & Circumstance #4

[Hugin]

44. I bet it was either Mozart or Bach...

Those are my typical ear-worms.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. I wanta say it's later than either of those

More in the Brahms, Schubert, Tchaikovsky generation. Maybe. It's not as heavy as Bach, not as delicate as Mozart, if that makes any sense. Brahms was my first reaction, but I couldn't find it last night.



I need to read Taibbi, just to keep this from straying too far OT

[Hugin]

48. Now that you mention it, Brahms does kind of park in my ear sometimes.

Not a bad thing... But, distracting.

I'm reading on the Taibbi... Right now. :)

[Demeter]

62. Mendelssohn? I'm looking into it

as if I didn't have enough to do!

[Tansy_Gold]

65. It could very well be Mendelssohn

But not the Italian. And it's in a major key, not minor.

Errands are run, paid work is done, I have a couple hours break before the madness starts again. I may put a stack of CDs on. . . . .

[AnneD]

52. I know the I phone has an application for that........

I googled Name that tune and came up with a few possibilities...

here is one...

http://www.namemytune.com/

[Tansy_Gold]

54. I can't even hum.

I'm not sure I have a mic on this computer anyway. I don't know if I could play the melody? Would that work?

Still trying to meet today's deadline and WAAAAAY behind. Help!




TG

ETA -- I can play it and record it on a little tape player, but I have no mic on this computer. Will have to do it on the laptop ---- LATER. I have to get the paying work DONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dr.Phool]

53. Put on some Joe Walsh. That will wash anything out of your head.

I've had an earworm of "Rocky Mountain Way" all week, broken occasionally by "Christmas Eve - Sarejevo" since Sunday, but that's not a bad thing. I'd forgotten how good he was, until he came out and played with Trans-Siberian Orchestra.

[Tansy_Gold]

55. I don't wanta wash it out until I know what it is n/t

[54anickel]

59. You're asking 2 very opposite questions TG. How to rid oneself vs how to aid an obsession of trying...

to identify it.
The first is easy, you get rid of it by replacing it with another. That freakin' "Yellow Submarine" is one that hounds me quite often...:evilgrin:

How to do a reverse search on music, picking out the melody on the piano, searching classical composer videos...sounds like you need some professional help beyond what a musician can offer. :hug:

[Tansy_Gold]

66. Well, see, it's kind of like temptation

The best way to get rid of temptation is to give in to it. :evilgrin:

So the best way to get rid of an unidentified ear worm is to identify it, right???

:hug: on "Yellow Submarine," though. Can't say as that's one that's ever bedeviled me, but "Green Tamborine" has.




Tansy Gold, who has given in to temptation. . . . .occasionally

[Demeter]

35. (Australia) Joyce warns of US 'Armageddon'

http://www.smh.com.au/national/joyce-warns-of-us-armageddon-20091210-kmby.html

THE OPPOSITION finance spokesman, Barnaby Joyce, believes the United States government could default on its debt, triggering an ''economic Armageddon'' which will make the recent global financial crisis pale into insignificance.

Senator Joyce told the Herald yesterday he did not mean to alarm the public but there needed to be a debate about Australia's ''contingency plan'' for a sovereign debt default by the US or even by a local state government.

''A default by the US means complete economic collapse around the world and the question we have got to ask ourselves is where are we in that,'' Senator Joyce said.

His warning came as the Rudd Government ramped up its attack on Senator Joyce as an economic extremist by highlighting his strong opposition to Chinese sovereign investment in Australia.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, said it was a cause for concern that Senator Joyce had been elevated ''from the reactionary fringe of our economic debate to the second-most senior economic policymaking job in the alternative government''.

The scrutiny of foreign investment bids was adequate and ''if we were to follow the advice of some of the extremists on foreign investment, it could cost something like 20,000 jobs right across Australia''.

Senator Joyce said the chances of a US debt default were distant but real and politicians were not doing the electorate a favour by refusing to acknowledge the risk.

He said the Federal Government's debt would push up interest rates and predicted that some state Labor governments would not be able to repay their borrowings.

''The Federal Government has $115.7 billion in debt, Australian government securities, notes and bonds on issue, and the states have another $170 billion in debt.

''We have to ask whether the states have the capacity to repay that. I would say in some instances they do not, particularly Queensland.''

Senator Joyce said that if the US recovered, global funds would flow back into North America. ''There will be only one way Australia will be able to keep funds here and that is by putting up interest rates, which will therefore bring real costs back to households,'' he said.

''That is the first scenario, which is extremely bad for Australia. The worse scenario is where the US doesn't repay its debt - the $2 trillion in debt it owes to the Chinese, the $1 trillion in debt it has to the Japanese and the $US1 trillion in debt to others - and then we are really nailed.

''The outcome is a shift away from the US dollar as the international trading currency and a shift to the Chinese yuan, and China becomes an immensely powerful player overnight.

''It's the real financial crisis, and the real financial crisis will mean this preamble we have just had pales into insignificance.''

Asked what sort of contingency plan he would advocate, Senator Joyce said it was like trying to prepare for a tidal wave but the local economy should have more self-reliance.

''Things you look for in that economic Armageddon are the capacity to feed ourselves, the capacity to provide the fundamentals in medicines and basic fundamental requirements for our nation.''

[DemReadingDU]

51. contingency plan

"Asked what sort of contingency plan he would advocate, Senator Joyce said it was like trying to prepare for a tidal wave but the local economy should have more self-reliance. ''Things you look for in that economic Armageddon are the capacity to feed ourselves, the capacity to provide the fundamentals in medicines and basic fundamental requirements for our nation.''"


What is the U.S. contingency plan? I hope it is better than the one they used for hurricane Katrina.

[AnneD]

56. Having gone through Ike....

I can tell you the government was scared shitless of repeating the same mistakes because Houston is not New Orleans. We happen to have a very VERY competant local government that left no stone unturned in going after aid. We learned from Katrina and Rita. We were as patient as we could be and folks looked after each other.

No contingency will work until and unless we get rid of this rugged individualist go it on your own I'll get mine and to hell with you attitude.

[Demeter]

58. We Need the Exact Same Contingency Plan

and we've needed it for a long time. The giant sucking sound....

[Festivito]

37. Debt: 12/09/2009 12,079,739,352,131.13 (DOWN 11,553,524,963.73) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,710,037,318,766.99 + 4,369,702,033,364.14
UP 189,524,372.49 + DOWN 11,743,049,336.22

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,158,878 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,199.71.
A family of three owes $117,599.14. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,272,229,084.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,990,560,358.88.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 48 reports in 70 days of FY2010 averaging 3.54B$ per report, 2.43B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,138 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/09/2009 12,079,739,352,131.13 BHO (UP 1,452,862,303,218.05 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,169,910,348,619.40 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,885,961,103,515.45 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/18/2009 -000,023,369,864.09 ----
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********

77,740,306,986.51 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4178438&mesg_id=4178851

[Festivito]

75. Debt: 12/10/2009 12,092,672,900,402.34 (UP 12,933,548,271.21) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,722,301,552,725.35 + 4,370,371,347,676.99
UP 12,264,233,958.36 + UP 669,314,312.85

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,167,518 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,240.58.
A family of three owes $117,721.75. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,034,231,756.28.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,523,962,229.39.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 49 reports in 71 days of FY2010 averaging 3.73B$ per report, 2.58B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,137 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/10/2009 12,092,672,900,402.34 BHO (UP 1,465,795,851,489.26 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,182,843,896,890.60 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,939,972,145,986.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/19/2009 -021,100,228,230.36 -
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********

90,027,910,808.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4180014&mesg_id=4180170

[DemReadingDU]

61. What Recovery? America's Problems "Getting Worse, Not Better," Jim Rogers Says

click link for video

12/10/09 What Recovery? America's Problems "Getting Worse, Not Better," Jim Rogers Says

"It's getting worse, not better."

That's how Jim Rogers responds to the recent talk of improvement from President Obama, Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Bernanke, among others.

"Papering over the problem is not going to solve America's problem," Rogers says. "The idea you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more consumption and more debt defies belief. I cannot believe that grownups would stand there and say that."

History shows the only way to solve a financial crisis is "when people go bankrupt, you let them go bankrupt," Rogers say. "Then, competent people come in, take over the assets, reorganize and you start over."

But rather than "take the pain and reorganize and start over," as Sweden, South Korea and others have done, Rogers says America is "doing the Japanese model."

Keeping zombie banks alive and bailing out their creditors will only prolong the pain, the famed financier predicts. "What has been happening is the government has been printing and spending a lot of money," he says. "The problem is not solved - they're making the problem worse."

Adding insult to injury, Rogers fears the "unintended consequences" of new regulations that inevitably come from politicians seeking someone to blame for the crisis.

"The problems in last two years came from industries that are heavily regulated: banking, insurance, mortgage," he notes. "Now what? You're going to make the regulations tougher? It's not the regulations, it's the regulators."

click link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/388223/What-Recovery-America%27s-Problems-%22Getting-Worse-Not-Better%22-Jim-Rogers-Says;_ylt=AsS_5YJrv.kJDZnUFQSC_Npk7ot4;_ylu=X3oDMTB2am82OWRsBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDYXJ0aWNsZUxpc3QEc2xrA21vcmU-?tickers=SKF,XLF,FAS,FAZ,^DJI,^GSPC,UUP

[54anickel]

68. The financial globetrotter of the year...I gotta wonder where that "heavily regulated" notion comes

from. I mean in comparison to what? He's always been a free-market, Austrian economics kind of guy. Not that that's a bad thing, but there are consequences to allowing corporate entities free reign.

Roger wrote off the US and EU a few years ago. He's in Singapore now to be near the action. He'd like to be in China itself but the lack of regulations there have created too much pollution for him to be willing to expose his family to. One of those unfortunate consequences I suppose :eyes: I read somewhere his daughters are being tutored in Mandarin as a second language to prepare them for their future.

[mullard12ax7]

64. Fund manager pleads guilty to fraud charges

NEW YORK — A fund manager accused of cheating investors of more than $100 million has pleaded guilty to fraud charges, admitting he lied to hundreds of investors about the health of his business.

James Nicholson entered the plea Friday to securities fraud, investment adviser fraud and mail fraud before Judge Richard Sullivan in federal court in Manhattan.

He admitted carrying out the fraud between 2004 and last February. Prosecutors say Nicholson cheated investors of between $100 million and $200 million. Nicholson maintains the loss was no more than $20 million.

Sullivan said Nicholson could face up to 45 years in prison when he is sentenced on April 30.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hVF0bN9V4juui3cGzHpWpCV_lAJAD9CH95PO1

[54anickel]

69. A bit off topic "United Airlines Breaks Guitars"

Something to say about Karma....


A musician named Dave Carroll recently had difficulty with United
Airlines. United apparently damaged his treasured Taylor guitar
($3500) during a flight. Dave spent over 9 months trying to get
United to pay for damages caused by baggage handlers to his custom
Taylor guitar. During his final exchange with the United Customer
Relations Manager, he stated that he was left with no choice other
than to create a music video for Youtube exposing their lack of
cooperation. The Manager responded : "Good luck with that one, pal".

So he posted a retaliatory video on Youtube. The video has since received
over 6 million hits. United Airlines contacted the musician and attempted
settlement in exchange for pulling the video. Naturally his response was:
"Good luck with that one, pal".

Taylor Guitars sent the musician 2 new custom guitars in appreciation
for the product recognition from the video that has lead to a sharp
increase in orders.

Here are the videos released to date:

Song 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YGc4zOqozo

Statement of musician: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_X-Qoh__mw

Song 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-UoERHaSQg

[Tansy_Gold]

70. BRAVO!!!!

:thumbsup:


:yourock: Dave Carroll!

[54anickel]

71. Did I give ya a new earworm?

[Taxmyth]

72. capital markets

less than one year and the Dow is up over 31%, NASDAQ well over 50%. Say what you will about the Obama administration but the capital markets seem to enjoy his tenure.

[54anickel]

73. 'Twas brillig, and the slithy toves

Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

"Beware the Jabberwock, my son!
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!"

He took his vorpal sword in hand:
Long time the manxome foe he sought—
So rested he by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.

And as in uffish thought he stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

One, two! One, two! and through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
He left it dead, and with its head
He went galumphing back.

...

[Dr.Phool]

74. Yes, a mirage always looks good to someone in a desert.

If you can tell me what that appreciation is based on, you win a cigar.

[hamerfan]

80. But, but, but...

It says right here that the economy is coming back:

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/latestheadlines/story/1199046.html

:shrug:

[Joe Chi Minh]

78. GE boss attacks corporate US

"The boss of US conglomerate General Electric accused an entire generation of business leaders of submitting to 'meanness and greed' in the run-up to last year's financial crash. In an outspoken attack on corporate America, Jeffrey Immelt said executives had been seduced by a 'perverted' pay culture where eight- even nine-figure bonuses were commonplace."

The staggering rewards blinded bosses to the ever greater risks they were taking, and drove an even bigger wedge between America's rich and poor, acording to Immelt.

His comments are an astonishing assault on US remuneration policies, which are more generous (on ed. even) than in the UK.
(snip)
Immelt said: tough-mindedness, a good trait, was replaced by meanness and greed, both terrible traits.'
'Rewards became perverted he told recruits at the WEst Point Military Academy. The richest people made the most mistakes with the least accountability.'"

The above was a brief extract from unattributed article in today's (UK) Daily Mail.

Also, interesting was this by the City Editor, Alex Brummer:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1235013/ALEX-BRUMMER-COMMENT.html

[54anickel]

81. Hmmm, wonder what Jack Welch would say about that comment? I mean, Immelt is bad mouthing his people

[Joe Chi Minh]

83. Sounds like Immelt has higher priorities than tribal loyalties, and that's good.