STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 15

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday December 15, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 14, 2009

Dow... 10,501.05 +29.55 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,212.10 +21.79 (+0.99%)
S&P 500... 1,114.11 +7.70 (+0.70%)
Gold future... 1,124 +3.90 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.54 -0.01 (-0.23%)
30-Year Bond 4.48 -0.02 (-0.40%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Implications Stemming From Copenhagen
BY ROB KIRBY | DECEMBER 14, 2009

The United Nations’ sponsored Climate Change Conference is currently underway in Copenhagen, Denmark (Dec. 7 – 18, 2009). The expressed purpose of the meeting is to get a new global climate treaty signed by the 192 countries attending – supplanting the UN's 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

Central to the proposed ‘new treaty’ is the reduction in CO2 emissions under a system coined as cap-and-trade:

Emissions trading (also known as cap and trade) is an administrative approach used to control pollution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the emissions of pollutants.

It’s All About “New Taxes” – But to Fund What?

Cap-and-trade was proposed to work is a follows: A central authority (like the United Nations) sets a limit or cap on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted. Companies or other groups are issued emission permits and are required to hold an equivalent number of credits which represent the right to emit a specific amount. The total amount of allowances and credits cannot exceed the cap, limiting total emissions to that level. Companies that need to increase their emission allowance must buy credits from those who pollute less. The funds raised by such a scheme were initially widely purported to be a means to redistribute wealth from the industrialized world to the disadvantaged, developing third world.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Core PPI Nov
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior -0.6%

08:30 PPI Nov
Briefing.com 0.6%
Consensus 0.8%
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Empire Manufacturing Dec
Briefing.com 21.00
Consensus 24.00
Prior 23.51

09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct
Briefing.com $38.7B
Consensus $35.5B
Prior $40.7B

09:15 Capacity Utilization Nov
Briefing.com 71.4%
Consensus 71.1%
Prior 70.7%

09:15 Industrial Production Nov
Briefing.com 0.7%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Robbien]

35. OMG. Empire mfg: Sept was 34.6; Oct. was 23.51; Nov. comes in at a whopping 2.55

two point five five


that's just about zero!

[Tansy_Gold]

37. explain please?? what does this index measure, and how?

what does the trending mean? what can be extrapolated?

[CatholicEdHead]

41. Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Mfg in NY)

I Googled it and came up with this.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.html

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory. Future indexes remained well above zero but signaled somewhat less widespread optimism than in recent months. Indexes for expected prices paid and received declined moderately but remained well above zero.

[Robbien]

44. Anything below 50 means companies are mfg big ticket items less than what is considered standard

Even with the Cash for Clunkers, mfg was having a hard time holding steady volumes. It appears that no matter how much cash the admin is throwing at the big ticket item problem, people aren't buying and manufacturers are not able to raise prices.

Denniger's summary of this is

The Bottom Line: The pump is wearing off and the ability to reignite the game looks to be quite constrained, as we now are seeing the blowback from The Fed and Government stupidity (stoking speculation via "ZIRP" and spendthrift policies)



I was very surprised at how low the number showed up to be without the government propping it up.

[Dr.Phool]

48. I've never seen numbers that low before.

Anything below 50 signifies contraction. Wow!

[FBaggins]

58. You're confusing the Empire Manufacturing index with the ISM data

The dividing line between expansion and contraction IS 50 on the ISM survey. For the Empire index it's zero.

It was actually below this level from Feb 2008 to this past July with one or two exceptions - hitting a low point of -38 in March.

[FBaggins]

59. Not "what is considered standard"

It's perfectly possible to have an "expansion" number (actually anything greater than zero in this survey... you're thinking of the ISM manufacturing number which does require a 50+) and STILL be "less than what is considered standard"

We'll need to see many months of higher numbers before we approach the old "standard" since the sector has contracted fairly substantially.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers below $70 in Asia after 9-day drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $70 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after dropping the last nine days on investor doubts about a recovery in U.S. crude demand and amid a strengthening dollar.
.....

Crude is down about 13 percent since reaching its 2009 high of $82 a barrel in October amid signs that demand for oil and its products remains weak.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil held at $1.91 while gasoline was steady at $1.83. Natural gas rose 6.1 cents to $5.39 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Fed is expected to leave rates at record low

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates at a record low this week, aiming to induce consumers and businesses to borrow and spend and bolster the economic recovery.

The big question is whether Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will give hints about when they will reverse course and start boosting rates.
.....

Super-low interest rates are good for borrowers who can get a loan and are willing to take on more debt. But those same low rates hurt savers. They're especially hard on people living on fixed incomes who are earning measly returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit.

Tight credit is clobbering small businesses, normally an engine of job creation during economic recoveries. That's crimping their ability to hire and expand.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091215/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_interest_rates

[ozymandius]

5. Obama Says Banks Must Take ‘Extraordinary’ Steps After U.S. Aid

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama told executives from some of the nation’s largest bank yesterday they have a duty to take “extraordinary” steps to boost lending and help the U.S. economy after getting a taxpayer bailout.

Financial institutions were rescued from a crisis “largely of their own making,” he said, and now must help homeowners and small businesses.
.....

Obama has expressed frustration with the banking industry for fighting his effort to overhaul financial regulations and paying out bonuses as the country struggles to emerge from the worst recession since the 1930s. He’s trying to revive employment growth after U.S. lost about 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. The unemployment rate was 10 percent in November, down from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent the month before.

The administration argues that one of the keys to unlocking job growth is opening up credit to small businesses. The president today will discuss how $8 billion in spending on making homes more energy efficient can spur hiring.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20091215/pl_bloomberg/anxnox1h1m5i

---

If major banks had been nationalized, as they should have been at the beginning of this crisis, then lending to spur growth would not be an issue.

[rfranklin]

13. The Dems in Congress could also send a sternly worded letter...

That always gets excellent results.

[mbperrin]

19. Easy now, don't want to overdo. Perhaps just a firmly worded memo

for now, followed up by a remorseful phone call later.

Just think, with a really good national health plan, every Congresscritter could have a spine implant!

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Lending to do what? To make what?

Everything that Americans could possibly want -- and a lot of stuff they don't want (melamine dog food, sulphuric drywall) -- is made by small and large businesses elsewhere. Small businesses are dying not (only) because of lack of credit but because of lack of market. Giving them more money with which they can't do anything is stupid, but I guess it's part of that same utterly failed supply-side mentality that has completely corrupted the brains of those in the Bush/Obama administration.

Obama has got to get it into his thick little head that without manufacturing jobs, there is no economy. Period. I don't care if it's the US, Germany, Japan, Nauru, Abkhazia, or Madagascar (where the jeans I bought at Kohl's the other day were made) -- an economy, ANY economy, is only as strong as its manufacturing base.


:banghead: seems to be the order of the day.




Tansy Gold, considering a run for president in 2012 because she couldn't do any worse than the present (p)resident

[DemReadingDU]

24. You have my vote!

[fasttense]

26. You always say what I'm thinking.

Ed Shultz has been pushing this on his show, more loans for small businesses. But the small businesses around here don't need loans, they need customers.

And you know the small businesses wont get the same sweet heart deals the banksters got. I'll bet the small businesses would have to pay interest at about 6%, while the banksters got the loans at almost zero.

[Dr.Phool]

32. Customers keep losing their jobs.

It happened to our pizza shop. People didn't have the extra cash, especially when the gas prices spiked.

Capitol One had a big complex, where we delivered a lot of lunches. Then they off-shored everything except their auto loan dept. to India. A thousand customers lost their jobs.

[Dr.Phool]

31. Doesn't he realize that it's getting harder every day, to put food on our families?

All we need are more loans. :sarcasm:


For all the lip service Washington pays to "small businesses", I read a recent study (I don't remember where) that said that the US environment for small business is the most hostile in the developed world. Many people who would like to start one, can't do it. Health Insurance is the biggest obstacle. Nobody wants to risk leaving a job with benefits, to strike out on their own, and risk losing their insurance.

I liken it to an internal H-1b visa. You're wedded to a company for life, whether you like it or not.

[skoalyman]

52. yeps the banks could lend till they're blue in the face,

without good paying jobs they'll still default.

[Demeter]

56. I Told You So! Tansy Gold for President--I Was the First

Demeter--so far ahead of the curve, it's futile.

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 12/11/2009 12,081,709,382,532.35 (DOWN 10,963,517,869.99) (Fri)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,722,342,580,493.49 + 4,359,366,802,038.86
UP 41,027,768.14 + DOWN 11,004,545,638.13

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,176,158 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,203.91.
A family of three owes $117,611.72. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,307,061,318.72.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,158,511,633.73.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,056,624,161.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 50 reports in 72 days of FY2010 averaging 3.44B$ per report, 2.39B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,136 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/11/2009 12,081,709,382,532.35 BHO (UP 1,454,832,333,619.27 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,171,880,379,020.60 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,871,338,032,534.99 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/20/2009 -000,090,793,748.95 ----
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******

111,169,166,807.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4183295&mesg_id=4183310

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 12/14/2009 12,071,280,871,918.40 (DOWN 10,428,510,613.95) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,710,218,762,278.54 + 4,361,062,109,639.86
DOWN 12,123,818,214.95 + UP 1,695,307,601.00

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,202,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,166.77.
A family of three owes $117,500.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 3,798,761,690.73.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,659,133,183.51.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,573,354,693.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 51 reports in 75 days of FY2010 averaging 3.17B$ per report, 2.15B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,133 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/14/2009 12,071,280,871,918.40 BHO (UP 1,444,403,823,005.32 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,161,451,868,406.70 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,785,732,426,245.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/23/2009 -000,049,087,609.27 ---- Mon
11/24/2009 +000,322,336,139.24 ------------********
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon

99,136,142,341.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4184785&mesg_id=4184794

[ozymandius]

7. Stock Futures Signal Weaker Open; Data Eyed

(Reuters) - Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.2 to 0.3 percent at 1006 GMT (5:06 a.m. EST), pointing to a weaker start on Wall Street on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve starts its two-day meet on Tuesday and is expected to keep rates unchanged near zero, leaving the focus on the accompanying statement, especially after upbeat sales and jobs data led markets to price in the chances of a rate hike in the middle of 2010.
.....

Redbook releases at 1355 GMT its Retail Sales Index of department and chain store sales for December versus November.

The Federal Reserve releases industrial production and capacity utilization data for November at 1415 GMT. Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a 0.5 percent increase in production compared with a 0.1 percent rise in October.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2009/12/15/business/business-us-markets-stocks.html

[ozymandius]

8. TARP Repayments Push Geithner to Focus on Unemployment, Credit

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. banking industry moved out of intensive care when Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. said yesterday they will repay their bailout funds. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner still can’t claim the patient is healthy.

The Treasury is in line to get back $20 billion from New York-based Citigroup, which needed two capital injections from the government to stave off collapse. Wells Fargo plans to return all $25 billion that taxpayers invested in the San Francisco-based lender a year ago, making it the last of the nation’s largest banks to pledge an exit from the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
.....

Only a handful of banks have signed up for extra capital that the Treasury offered in exchange for a small-business lending plan. And a $15 billion program to buy securitized small-business loans, announced in March, still hasn’t started.

Small banks “have been very reluctant to come and do business with the government,” Geithner said last week, in testimony before the Congressional Oversight Panel, a TARP watchdog. Geithner said banks see a “stigma” in dealing with the government, particularly while their regulators are paying close attention to underwriting standards and capital levels.

The explanation was met with skepticism from Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard law professor who heads the panel. “Treasury has now announced three plans and, clearly, has not gotten the job done,” she said at the Dec. 10 hearing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPQBGLJzpoMw

[ozymandius]

9. Obama’s populist rhetoric about ‘Fat Cat’ bankers

By Ed Harrison - December 14th, 2009

Last night on CBS’ 60 Minutes, President Obama attacked Wall Street as “fat cats,” saying he was not elected merely for their sake. Obviously, the President is now keenly aware of how his political capital is being lost due to the bailout program earlier in the year. He is doing some serious damage control. But what does the President plan to do about this? I do not advocate taxing bonuses outright as is being done in the U.K. Taxing bonuses strikes me as a populist move similar to the desire to impose oil company windfall taxes back in 2008 – something no one is talking about now.
.....

Here is my take....

...Obama has been more interested in sending out a pro-business signal to re-assure business interests and to court independent voters. I believe he has made a political calculation that he can hold his base of support even if he adopts a more center-left positioning because they have nowhere else to go. It’s not like they are going to vote for the Republicans. This has been an effective way to power for left-leaning mainstream parties for at least 15 years.

However, I suspect that the Obama Administration was taken by surprise by how huge post-bailout profits in the banking sector were. He probably also never anticipated the lack of political antennae Wall Street executives showed in paying large bonuses. So, his pro-business emphasis has backfired and he finds himself in a position where he must ratchet up the populist rhetoric – not necessarily to be followed by any concrete actions.

The problem with this calculus is that, in the wake of this major financial crisis, there are lots of voters who want much more fundamental change than Barack Obama has been willing to make. This is true on banker pay, on auditing the Federal Reserve and on protecting American jobs. Words alone are meaningless – one reason populism and protectionism escalate from rhetoric into action.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/obamas-populist-rhetoric-about-fat-cat-bankers/

[ozymandius]

11. Source material from Marshall Auerback, with which I find myself in agreement:

“Obama’s Newfound Populism: All Hat, No Cattle”

President Obama is taking a sharp, populist tone with Wall Street and scolding the ways of Washington. Once again, he is looking to the Senate to follow the House and pass a top legislative priority: sweeping financial regulatory reform. It might feel satisfying to hear the President criticize “reckless”, “fat cat” bankers, but the financial reform legislation passed by the House last Friday (and lauded by the President) provides little incentive to change their behavior. In reality, populism — with nothing of substance behind it — is just cynical posturing designed to mask genuine failure. To use an expression favored by his predecessor, this president is once again showing himself to be all hat, no cattle.

Appealing to the peanut gallery at this stage is an insult to the voters’ intelligence. The most telling comment on the latest reforms came from the stock market: Bank stocks ended the day higher last Friday (when the House bill was passed to great fanfare), with the KBW Banks index slightly outperforming the benchmark Dow Jones industrial average.
.....

However good the political optics of resorting to demonization of Wall Street, the legislation itself does nothing to recognize that the behavior criticized is a direct consequence of incentives built into the current institutional structure. It completely misses the point because it does nothing to ban activities which were at the heart of the crisis and which will likely be perpetuated as a consequence of the new legislation. All the new legislation does is institutionalize tax payer bailouts and, in so doing, continues the process of privatizing profits and socializing losses.
.....

More and more voters are beginning to believe this façade of reform is deliberate — a cynical act of kabuki theatre by the President to mask his own reticence to deal with the problem in an honest manner. It was clear to many of us that the president may not have been serious about reform when he picked Tim Geithner and Larry Summers as the leaders of his economic team a year ago, and essentially relegated any genuine progressive to the Cabinet equivalent of Siberia, as Matt Taibbi recently highlighted.

more at link...

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Where are reforms?

Mark to market on the banksters balance sheets, with derivatives being traded in the open
Return of Glass-Steagall
Return of leverage limits that protects both banks and the FDIC

Anything short is little more than window dressing. Enough Americans are starting to get it, why can't the District of Columbia?
:grr:

[ozymandius]

12. Obama forgot Samuelson when he told fat cats to start lending

Posted by Edward Harrison

There has been quite a lot of hub-bub today about President Obama’s fat cat remarks and his meeting with bankers exhorting them to lend. Let me tie these events in with a few other themes into a comprehensive picture of what is happening in politics and banking.

In a nutshell, we are getting a bunch of populist rhetoric which is pure politics to induce banks to lend recklessly and save the economy when basic economics would tell you that there is a deficit of lending capacity and demand for credit. It is the absurd kabuki theater of depression economics.
.....

TARP repayments

The President is playing politics of course. And he is using the TARP repayments by Wells and Citi to do so. It is quite crafty, if you asked me.

The message to banks is loud and clear:

You bankers are now free of TARP restrictions. That means you have been given a green light by the government to return to business as usual. Under no circumstances should you think this means a return to large bonus payments while everyone else is hurting. I will pillory you with verbal abuse. And while I don’t want to tax you, I may be forced to resort to action. On the other hand, the green light means you had better start lending or you will get the stick.

Back in June I warned this is what was likely to occur. When BofA repaid it’s TARP money, I repeated this warning. But now that the President is all but ordering the bankers to lend, the narrative is even more compelling...

Enter Samuelson

That’s where Paul Samuelson enters the picture. The old Keynesian had an interesting twist on depression economics, something Paul Krugman pointed out in an ode to Samuelson today. On page 353-4 of his 1948 textbook, Samuelson writes:

Today few economists regard Federal Reserve monetary policy as a panacea for controlling the business cycle. Purely monetary factors are considered to be as much symptoms as causes, albeit symptoms with aggravating effects that should not be completely neglected.

By increasing the volume of their government securities and loans and by lowering Member Bank legal reserve requirements, the Reserve Banks can encourage an increase in the supply of money and bank deposits. They can encourage but, without taking drastic action, they cannot compel. For in the middle of a deep depression just when we want Reserve policy to be most effective, the Member Banks are likely to be timid about buying new investments or making loans. If the Reserve authorities buy government bonds in the open market and thereby swell bank reserves, the banks will not put these funds to work but will simply hold reserves. Result: no 5 for 1, “no nothing,” simply a substitution on the bank’s balance sheet of idle cash for old government bonds.

more at Credit Writedowns

---

I watched President Obama's speech that followed his meeting with the Banksters (video at above link). Somber is how Edward Harrison described him. I concur but go further. He evidences someone who does not believe the prepared words he, himself, utters. He appears demoralized.

[snot]

15. Which "above link" did you mean?

I was thinking of mentioning it elsewhere, but there are several links, and links-within-links, via Credit Writedowns . . .

[ozymandius]

16. The link I posted at the bottom of #12. n/t

[snot]

17. oops, sorry; got distracted by the other links at that link.

[Dr.Phool]

25. They always keep forgeting that there's more than 2 options.

They get it half right. We won't vote for a Republican. But that doesn't mean that I'll automatically vote for a colostomy-bagger Blue Dog or DLC trash. I can vote for a third party candidate or I can choose to have a ballot full of undervotes.

Yeah, I call them colostomy-baggers, because they're full of shit. If Bill Nelson were up for re-election, I'd enter no candidate. And, it looks like the only Dems that are going to run for Mel Martinez' vacant seat are Blue Dogs and DLC'ers. I'll skip that one too.

I do have other options.

[fasttense]

29. Yes, and then there is the option most progressive fall back on when

they are not happy with the Democratic party, they stay home.

Young people, minorities and women carried President Obama to victory because they were excited by the change Obama spoke about. Now, what's there to get excited about? An incomprehensible health care bill? A water down stimulus bill? An Obama administration fully engaged in ensuring that banksters walked with billions in bonuses? The non-prosecution of torture and war crimes?

Really, none of that is going to drag all those sit at home progressive to come out and vote.

[Demeter]

57. Hear, Hear!

Demeter, and her Sis.

[ozymandius]

10. Lieberman’s Offer to You: Nothing

First off: Yglesias' premise:

Looks like Joe Lieberman decided to try for the old double-cross and say he now opposes the Medicare expansion compromise he’d hinted he would support. Lieberman wants no public option, no trigger that might create a public option, and no expansion of existing programs as a substitute for a public option. And he doesn’t care about expressing that view in misleading ways, timed to cause embarrassment to the Democratic leadership. And, frankly, unlike some other troublesome Democratic Senators one can hardly be all that surprised that he’s making problems for the Obama administration’s #1 domestic priority. After all, Lieberman took the view that John McCain would be the better President.

The second paragraph holds the most salient point:

That said, I agree with Chris Bowers that in a lot of ways the real story here is that the Senate leadership has, at every step of this process, underscored that a “reconciliation” path to a health care bill is off the table. That means Lieberman has unlimited control over what happens, and no incentive to compromise, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’s being uncompromising. Can’t liberals be just as stiff-necked as Lieberman? Sure, they could. But liberals members do have an incentive to compromise—the tens of thousands of people who die every year for lack of health insurance. The leverage that Lieberman and other “centrists” have obtained on this issue (and on climate change) stems from a demonstrated willingness to embrace sociopathic indifference to the human cost of their actions.

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2009/12/liebermans-offer-to-you-nothing.php?

---

Succinctly said.

[Tansy_Gold]

21. "sociopathic indifference"

It was a good description of boooosh/cheney. It seems to be a good description of Obama/lieberman. (or should that be Lieberman/Obama?)


you have no idea the depth of my outrage today. It's worse than 11/24/08.



TG, who needs to channel this anger into something more productive than DU posts. . . . .

[Loge23]

22. ...on a related note

Not to change the subject but, did you see the front page of the M&I section of today's WSJ?
There's a neat little graph detailing how corporate executives fared with their retirement accounts at some corps. while their employees basically lost their shirts.
For example: Comcast (one of my personal faves :sarcasm:). Employees lost 29% of their 401k's in 2008. Execs? UP 12%!
McKesson: employees down 31%, execs up 8%.
Bank of NY: Employees lost 30%, while execs went up 6.6%.
....and so on.
According to the article: "50 million employees lost a total of at least $1 trillion (not a mis-print) in their 401(k) plans, according to the Center on Retirement Research at Boston College."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704201404574590513148980476.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Sociopatic indifference indeed.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. That. Does. It.

I am running for president. Enough of this bullshit. If booooosh could commute to TX, I can commute to AJ AZ.


Tansy Gold, running on an I TOLD YOU SO platform.




(I hate cold weather.)

[Roland99]

28. You'd get at least one vote out of FL!

[fasttense]

30. I'll vote for you. n/t

[boomerbust]

33. Tansy/Hillary 2012

The Puma Connection

[Tansy_Gold]

36. nope. I wouldn't have her on my ticket. too many ties

However, party unity has done so much for us so far. . . . .


:sarcasm:


TG4POTUS

[boomerbust]

38. Ok, Sorry

Tansy/Palin 2012:hi:

[AnneD]

39. Tansy...

You have a vote in Houston Tx.:hi:

I'll be your running mate......Tansy Gold/Anne DeLay

I have name recognition and might be able to to bring less savvy GOP members to the polls yet everyone here knows we are socially liberal and fiscally conservative.:fistbump:

:woohoo:

[mbperrin]

42. West Texas sending approval!

Rationality in politics! What an idea!

[Tansy_Gold]

45. Okay, I'll bite. What the HELL is a . . . .

"less savvy GOP member"??? I mean, are there any who ARE savvy? :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

49. The less savvy GOP members....

send us campaign donations. :evilgrin:

All we need to do is put BBQ sauce on a rubber chicken at our fundraisers. Stick with me kid, I'll show you the ropes. I cut my first teeth on politics, learned to walk at rallies.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. I love it when a plan comes together.

:evilgrin:

[AnneD]

60. Wait til you hear my plans....

on how to spend the campaign money. Sarah Palin was an amateur.

[hamerfan]

54. TG gets two votes

From Washington state!
Run, TG, Run!

[Roland99]

27. I thought of the perfect little saying for LIEberman yesterday....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7227532


:)

[Dr.Phool]

14. The toon reminds me of one skit in "The People Speak".

"I've been waiting for Roosevelt, Roosevelt, Roosevelt".

I've been waiting for Obama, Obama, Obama.

[Dr.Phool]

34. Got dirt?

[AnneD]

40. Let Loose the Hounds of War.....

She can make a fortune in DC digging up the dirt. She is a pill!

[Tansy_Gold]

46. dirt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzcw34kD60E

[DemReadingDU]

51. I totally mis-read the title

I thought it was going to be a video of 12, 14 dogs, lol

Are those your 4 doggies?

My two decided to dig a muddy hole in the rain. Now that was dirt!

[Tansy_Gold]

53. Yes, those are my four.

Our AZ dirt has three states of matter: dust, concrete, and slime. We had rain last week so at the moment we're in between slime and concrete. The dogs love it like this, because they can really dig their feet in and run like crazy, especially Biscuit, the little short-legged hound who can run under (and dig under) the trailer. She gets the midnight crazies and just tears from one end of the yard to the other.

Chiquita the pipsqueak pit bull is her playmate, and Moby's the big Aussie who tries unsuccessfully to herd them. Miss Mattie is the "mom" who frequently breaks them up, until she gets tired of them and just lies down.

All are rescues of one sort or another. Don't know what I'd do without 'em.



TG2012

[Robbien]

47. Old Chrysler plan earmarks nothing for TARP repay

The U.S. government has filed proofs of claim for unpaid principal, interest, fees and expenses, but "will receive no recovery on account of such claim," according to court documents filed on behalf of Old Carco LLC, the units of Chrysler that remain under bankruptcy protection while they are liquidated.

The proposal was laid out in a disclosure statement filed with the New York bankruptcy court in Manhattan.

A disclosure statement is a comprehensive document sent to creditors before they vote on a plan of reorganization. The Old Carco plan also proposed repaying Class 1 priority claims in full.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1523084220091215?type=marketsNews



TARP was suppose to supersede Class 1 claim holders in the event of bankruptcy.

[hamerfan]

55. Just a short test

Seeing if I figured out how to add a sig pic.
On edit... Obviously I didn't figure it out.
Edited (again) to add I did figure it out. Yay!