Leading Economic Index in U.S. Climbed More-Than-Forecast 0.9% in November

[Purveyor]

Source: Bloomberg

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators rose for an eighth consecutive month in November, a sign economic growth will extend into the first half of 2010.

The New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.9 percent, more than forecast, after climbing 0.3 percent in October. Separate reports showed Philadelphia-area manufacturing grew in December at the fastest pace in more than four years, while initial jobless claims rose last week.

Rising stocks and fewer job losses are supporting consumer spending, which makes up 70 percent of the economy. The Federal Reserve said yesterday it intends to keep its benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period,” to spur growth as unemployment at 10 percent poses a risk to the recovery.

“The nascent recovery is ending 2009 on a high note,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at Woodley Park Research in Washington, who correctly forecast the gain in leading indicators. “The consumer is doing all right, housing is clearly in an upswing and business investment is improving.”

Economists forecast the leading indicators index would increase 0.7 percent, according to the median of 61 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a gain of 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNkCM8yC7WRQ

[Crowman1979]

1. These financial news networks can go to hell!

They don't know a damn thing about the current state of the economy.

[varelse]

2. "The consumer is doing all right"

How about the citizen? How is "the citizen" doing?

[Ghost Dog]

3. It's more bullshit:

... In the report, the bank said that its December new orders index was 6.5, from 14.8, while its shipments index hit 15.3, from 15.7. The inventories index came in at -7.4, after November's -17.3. Hiring improved, with the employment index standing at 6.3, versus -0.5 the month before.

"The employment index is up 21 points since September 2009 and is the first positive reading since May 2008 and the highest since October 2007" Trebing said. He noted much of the improvement is from a smaller share of firms decreasing employment.

Inflation in the Philadelphia Fed's area was mixed, with the prices paid index hitting 33.8, from 14.9, while the prices received index came it at -1.8, after -1.5 the prior month.

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed's district is broadly representative of national factory trends, and as such, the bank's report is viewed as a valuable proxy for coming reports that will detail manufacturing output for December...

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=5d318db1-84e4-4fff-a33d-843cb32685f7

Initial Jobless Claims Higher Than Consensus, Exhaustion Hits 144 Thousand In Prior Week

Even as initial jobless claims jumped by 7,000 to 480k in the week ended December 12, disappointing the consensus watchers which expected a number between 450-475k, the story continues to be in the exhaustion numbers where 144 thousand people dropped off continuing claims and shifted to either extended or EUC. And while EUC moderated from an increase of 328k to "only" 46 thousand, the combination of extended and EUC was worse than even the prior week, when the total of these two categories indicated 137 thousand had exhausted traditional insurance benefits.

/Data, comments... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-jobless-claims-higher-consensus-144-thousand-roll-continuing-claims

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Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increase (Update2)

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than anticipated filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week, a reminder that the labor market will take time to strengthen and may weigh on the economic recovery.

...

Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday said weakness in the labor market is restraining consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. Concerns over the lack of jobs prompted the central bank yesterday to reiterate a pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate low for an “extended period.”

...

Jobless claims were projected to drop to 465,000 from 474,000 initially reported for the prior week, according to the median forecast of 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 450,000 to 475,000.

The report showed the four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 467,500 last week, the lowest level since September 2008, from 472,750.

Continuing claims increased by 5,000 in the week ended Dec. 5 to 5.19 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Today’s report showed the number of people who’ve use up their traditional benefits and are now collecting extended payments jumped by about 144,000 to 4.73 million in the week ended Nov. 28. Seventeen of the 50 states and territories where workers are eligible to receive the government’s latest 13-week extension have begun to report that data, a Labor Department spokesman said.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBMXN4DFRge4

... for example ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4188110#4188514