STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 18

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 18, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 17, 2009

Dow... 10,308.26 -132.86 (-1.27%)
Nasdaq... 2,180.05 -26.86 (-1.22%)
S&P 500... 1,096.08 -13.10 (-1.18%)
Gold future... 1,107 -29.00 (-2.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 -0.12 (-3.31%)
30-Year Bond 4.41 -0.11 (-2.39%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Three Important Necklines
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

An early window into the market’s future behavior is likely to be flashed by the financial sector where there are multiple head-and-shoulders patterns forming. The financial sector led the market both into and out of its last major mess, so it would probably not be too much of a stretch to consider that this is the sector that will continue to lead the market. One thing that has not changed over recent years is that the market is liquidity driven. A lot of liquidity and the markets do well. Without liquidity, they crash. Tack on to that liquidity can dry up in a heartbeat, and what we have is a market with the potential of either surging or crashing depending on the status of liquidity. When liquidity is plentiful in the markets, speculators tend to think that this condition will last forever and markets behave in a most complacent manner. It appears that is the market’s current condition. At the center of the market’s liquidity status are the financial companies. That is why I think it is important to glean insight into the market’s condition by what is occurring in the technical charts of the financial companies.

The head-and-shoulders patterns, although commonly considered to be reversal patterns, are oftentimes actually continuation patterns. So it will be important to the overall market to see which of these occurs for the financial companies’ head-and-shoulders.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $73 as traders eye OPEC, demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $73 a barrel Friday in Asia amid expectations OPEC plans to leave production levels unchanged at its meeting next week.
.....

Traders are also looking for evidence demand for crude and its products is improving. Energy Department data released earlier this week showed U.S. demand for distillates such as heating oil and diesel were at its highest since March due to colder weather and a growing economy, Barclays Capital said.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.6 cent to $1.9634 while gasoline rose 1.05 cent to $1.8625. Natural gas rose 5.7 cents to $5.825 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Banks borrow less from the Fed over past week

WASHINGTON – Banks borrowed slightly less from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program over the past week.

The Fed said Thursday that commercial banks averaged $19.09 billion in daily borrowing for the week that ended Wednesday. That was down $257 million from the previous week.

Banks' use of the program has been declining for the last several months, reflecting greater stability in the financial system. Banks borrow from the Fed's "discount window" when they are having trouble getting loans in the private market.
.....

A separate program intended to boost the availability of short-term financing crucial for business operations like payroll and supplies also saw a reduction in use in the past week. Loss of such so-called "commercial paper" financing was a central part of last year's financial crisis.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091217/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_emergency_lending_programs

[ozymandius]

5. Georgia to use federal loans to pay unemployment

ATLANTA – Georgia must use $70 million in federal loans to sustain the state's dwindling unemployment insurance trust fund or it will be without money by next week to pay benefits to more than 260,000 unemployed state workers, state labor officials say.

The state will use a portion of $85 million in loan funds that federal officials have already authorized and look to a "modest increase" in unemployment insurance premiums for 15 percent of Georgia's employers to pay the money back, Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond said Thursday.
.....

Data released Thursday showed Georgia firms shed 192,400 jobs between November 2008 and November 2009, with the highest losses in places like Dalton, Macon and Atlanta.
.....

Georgia joins 25 states and the Virgin Islands already borrowing more than $24 billion in federal loans to keep paying the unemployed, according to U.S. Department of Labor data.

---

My home state of Georgia is extremely fiscally conservative. This story struck me as a big deal because Georgia has a lengthy reputation for policing debt to keep it at the barest minimum.

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. Lots of Atlanta bankers are now outa work n/t

[ozymandius]

18. Sure are. We do lead the state in bank failures. n/t

[CatholicEdHead]

34. Ironic, given they were apparently giving away money

hand over fist in the housing bubble.

[Demeter]

38. Michigan Has Been Doing This For Years Now

[ozymandius]

6. Louisiana posts biggest personal income drop

NEW ORLEANS – Louisiana posted the largest drop in personal income during the third quarter of 2009, the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

Between the second and third quarters of 2009, Louisiana's personal income fell 0.4 percent, putting it at the bottom of all the states. Nationally, state personal income averaged a growth of 0.3 percent during the third quarter.

Personal income includes all forms of income, including employment pay, dividends and interest payments, rent payments and government payments.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091217/ap_on_bi_ge/us_personal_income_louisiana

[Dr.Phool]

7. The Tansy Photo's. A tale of depravity, and the plot to destroy America.

Tansy Gold and her co- conspirator Anne D. Part 1 Their henchman.

He's like Oddjob to Goldfinger. Gordon Liddy to Nixon.


One unfortunate victim.


Their minions blowing off some steam, after taking care of the next guy.


And they blamed the Jews for their dirty work.


They're coming for you and your loved ones.


Against the odds, a lone heroine.


Come after us. We dare you.

[ozymandius]

9. Oh! The HUMANITY!

Is Michael Steele pulling his own finger? The poor fellow has suffered enough! No one should be forced to endure a digital rectal exam from Michael Steele. Not even an analog one!

[Tansy_Gold]

10. Someone is having toooooooo much fun.

This is a serious campaign and you're making a mockery of it!


(Or is this campaign a mockery and you're taking it too seriously?????)


Either way,

:yourock:




Tansy Gold, who wishes she knew how to do that. . . . .

[Dr.Phool]

13. Like I always say.

A sick mind is a terrible thing to waste.

I found this neat Michael Steele generator over at TPM yesterday.
You can make your own.

http://www.keepingitrealwithmichaelsteele.com/

Have fun.

[AnneD]

33. Looks like the jig is up......

Mr. Secretary of Defense. I would have thought you would have wanted Secretary of Treasury......

AnneD... the VP that knows how grease palms and does scut work on the side....can I clean your small plane for you?

[ozymandius]

8. Asian Stocks Fall on Concern Banks Need More Capital; BHP Drops

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for its steepest weekly drop since November, on concern banks will need to raise more equity.
.....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 117.82 as of 7:20 p.m. in Tokyo, with about ten stocks declining for every seven that advanced. The gauge has lost 1.6 percent in the past five days, set for the biggest weekly retreat since the week ended Nov. 27, on concern the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average dipped 0.2 percent, paring a decline of 1.3 percent. The policy board “does not tolerate a year-on-year rate of change in the CPI equal to or below zero percent,” the Bank of Japan said in a statement today after keeping interest rates at 0.1 percent. CPI refers to the consumer-price index.
.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1bWI_lTC_DM&pos=2

[ozymandius]

11. Harvard Swaps Are So Toxic Even Summers Won’t Explain

....
As vanishing credit spurred the government-led rescue of dozens of financial institutions, Harvard was so strapped for cash that it asked Massachusetts for fast-track approval to borrow $2.5 billion. Almost $500 million was used within days to exit agreements known as interest-rate swaps that Harvard had entered to finance expansion in Allston, across the Charles River from its main campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The swaps, which assumed that interest rates would rise, proved so toxic that the 373-year-old institution agreed to pay banks a total of almost $1 billion to terminate them. Most of the wrong-way bets were made in 2004, when Lawrence Summers, now President Barack Obama’s economic adviser, led the university. Cranes were recently removed from the construction site of a $1 billion science center that was to be the expansion’s centerpiece, a reminder of Summers’s ambition. The school suspended work on the building last week.
.....

Borrowers use swaps to match the type of interest rates on their debt with the rates on their income, which can help reduce borrowing costs. Lenders and speculators use swaps to profit from changes in the direction of interest rates. A bet on higher rates, for example, means paying fixed rates and receiving variable. At Harvard, nobody anticipated some interest rates going to zero, making the university’s financing a speculative disaster.
.....

Summers, who left Harvard in 2006, declined to comment. As president and as a member of the Harvard Corp., the university’s seven-member ruling body, Summers approved the decision to use the swaps.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHQ2Xh55jI.Q&pos=10

---

Just think. His name was floated as a potential replacement for Bernanke. Think some more: He is giving Obama advice.

[Dr.Phool]

16. We all know what a genius Summers is.

I started distrusting Obama's judgement the minute I heard that Summers and Rubin were his top economic advisers.

They're all probably in the situation room, holding a seance to get more bang up advice from Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand.

[DemReadingDU]

27. Harvard's endowment

Harvard not only lost money on the swaps last year. The value of its endowment tumbled a record 30 percent to $26 billion from its peak of $36.9 billion in June 2008, and its cash account lost $1.8 billion, according to Harvard’s most recent annual report.
.
.
“They put the operating funds in the endowment --it’s like the guy who has his retirement income in company stock,” said Morrell, who is also the former treasurer of Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
.
.
Universities would have been better served if they had stayed away from the more complicated financial instruments being sold by Wall Street, said David Kaiser, a Harvard class of 1969 alumnus who has been critical of the high salaries paid to managers of the school’s endowment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHQ2Xh55jI.Q&pos=10

That's a long article

[ozymandius]

12. Stocks Rise, Yen Drops as German Business Confidence Increases

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks and U.S. index futures advanced and the yen fell as German business confidence rose to a 17-month high and American technology companies reported improved earnings.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares added 0.5 percent at 10:11 a.m. in London. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent. The yen weakened against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts. Crude oil advanced 0.9 percent and copper gained 0.7 percent.

The Munich-based Ifo institute’s business climate index rose to 94.7 this month, above the 94.5 median forecast of 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Oracle Corp., the world’s second-biggest software maker, reported profit that beat estimates while Research In Motion Ltd. forecast higher sales. Analysts project U.S. earnings will climb 52 percent through 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
.....

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.5 percent. Woori Finance Holdings Co. declined 3.9 percent in Seoul after the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said lenders should increase the quality of the capital they hold by 2012. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. slid 1.7 percent in Hong Kong after Fitch Ratings said Chinese banks’ capital strength is probably “strained.” The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.1 percent, the steepest decline among equity gauges.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEG6AlPDX4hE&pos=3

[ozymandius]

14. What Ritholtz says:

Why Obama’s Poll Numbers Are Plummetting

The political buzz today is all about the President’s falling approval ratings. He has now fallen faster than President Bush did (prior to 09/11).

The simple solution for the White House: Stop jerking around with Financial Reform. When there is high unemployment, people don’t want to see bailed out bankers making a killing. Fix what was wrong with the system, what led us down the path to disaster.

...

My advice?

Put Paul Volcker in charge of Financial Reform.

IT WILL SAVE YOUR PRESIDENCY.

more at link...

[ozymandius]

20. Others agree.

Blodget and Task say Obama suffers because “taxpayer always finishes last”
by Edward Harrison at Calculated Risk

The latest WSJ/NBC News poll shows that President Obama’s approval rating has now slipped under 50%. This makes his the steepest first year decline in modern history.

Why? You know what I would say:

•Obama doesn’t know when to be an asshole
•Obama wasted political capital on bank bailouts

The above link will take you to a video. Much more included.

[Tansy_Gold]

21. Volcker, Stiglitz, Krugman, Warren

ANYONE but the current pack of jackals.




Tansy Gold, with all apologies to jackals

[ozymandius]

22. One with a conscience must wonder

why these four people have been sidelined and avoided throughout this administration's first year as though they are, somehow, responsible for creating this damned mess. Conversely, those who demonstrably are, in some fashion, responsible for creating conditions that brought fiscal calamity upon us and have performed incompetently at their jobs are rewarded with treasure, title and access.

I cannot dwell on this situation for too long. It's bad for my health.

[Dr.Phool]

28. A couple of weeks ago, Joe Biden was on The Daily Show.

Right around the time they started pushing the "recovery, we're saved" crap.

Right after Biden came out, he happily announced, "Those guys who created the mess in the first place, sure know what they're doing, don't they"? My jaw about dropped. The scary thing is, I think these buys actually believe that shit.

[54anickel]

32. I don't suppose Joe held up a little sarcasm banner, did he? n/t

[Ghost Dog]

35. Not to mention Spitzer.

to reform, for example, the SEC.

[wordpix]

55. I agree, bring in Spitzer - he's great at reform, if not as a husband

[girl gone mad]

23. They would have to move Volcker's desk out of the broom closet..

or wherever they keep him hidden these days (Cheney's old man-sized safe?), when he's not relegated to the foreign circuit.

I just don't see it happening.

I had always hoped tall Paul would get Sec Treas or Fed Chair when Dems swept back into power. I guess he's just not "Man of the Year"-material. Being right more often than you're wrong and having the courage of your convictions are both disqualifying traits, it seems. After all, we wouldn't want an actual meritocracy to accidentally break out, or anything. What would become of the future Dubyas and Paris Hiltons of the world?

[ozymandius]

25. Yet more fuel for plummeting poll numbers:

Homeowners often rejected under Obama's loan plan

WASHINGTON — Ten months after the Obama administration began pressing lenders to do more to prevent foreclosures, many struggling homeowners are holding up their end of the bargain but still find themselves rejected, and some are even having their homes sold out from under them without notice.

These borrowers, rich and poor, completed trial modifications of their distressed mortgage, and made all the payments, only to learn, often indirectly, that they won't get help after all.
.....

In the fine print of the form homeowners fill out to apply for Obama's program, which lowers monthly payments for three months while the lender decides whether to provide permanent relief, borrowers must waive important notification rights.

This clause allows banks to reject borrowers without any written notification and move straight to auctioning off their homes without any warning.

Now I wonder who advised Obama to attach his name and reputation to this plan so favorably written for the banks?

[wordpix]

54. put Elizabeth Warren somewhere at the top, too - she's far better than most men at her level

of expertise

[ozymandius]

17. Have you seen M3 lately?

By Tim Iacono

For all the talk about inflation appearing sometime in our not-too-distant future and, according to Milton Friedman, rising prices still being a monetary phenomenon, you sure don’t hear too many people talking about the broadest measure of the money supply – M3.

-see huge chart-

Reconstructed over at nowandfutures for about the last three years after the Federal Reserve discontinued it, much to the chagrin (or, maybe, delight) of those conspiracy minded individuals who viewed the move as a cover-up on the grandest of scales, it’s hard to see how consumer prices are going to be bid higher anytime soon, given a chart like the one above.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/have-you-seen-m3-lately/

[54anickel]

30. Gotta love this reader's comment:

"Zero growth and a downward trend in money supply coupled with very low velocity is not the set up for roaring economic growth

What you get with a dysfunctional economic system dependent on increasing debt, faux GDP growth, ponzi schemes and bubbles with politicians kicking the can down the road.

Unless this changes over next few yrs here comes biggest banana republic in the world !"

[Ghost Dog]

36. A banana republic bristling

with weapons and sociopathic maniacs, one might add (the whole world does).

[54anickel]

39. We'll be offering them at a garage sale soon. Huge discount prices to the first buyer with cash in

hand. On the other hand, maybe "we" won't go down without a fight - taking out the entire planet with "us". Starting to look like one of those lose-lose situations.
:nuke:

[Demeter]

41. There's No Market For Psychopaths and Sociopaths

if Blackwater isn't hiring. (Believe me, I tried unloading one, once. Cost a bundle).

[54anickel]

46. I hear K Street is always looking for them, they make some of the best corporate lobbyists!

[Ghost Dog]

47. Mmmm. Something's going on: The Earth Magic seems to have worked,

at least to the extent that this dry island here has been revelling, these last eight days since my "morning dew" comment, while my woman's been away in the snowy Iberian Peninsula (she's due back tomorrow), in very beautiful

female rain.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Ghost%20Dog

Love, GD.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Ghost%20Dog

[Ghost Dog]

51. I think you may be surprised.

No way that will happen.

C'est pas posible.

[54anickel]

53. No way what will happen? We sell 'em? We use 'em as we go down fighting?

Howzbout someone steals 'em? We were talking about military weapons and might weren't we?

Regardless, there's not much of anything that would surprise me these days. Except maybe peace on earth good will toward all creatures breaking out instantly.

[ozymandius]

19. Morgan Stanley sends jingle mail.

Morgan Stanley to Give Up 5 San Francisco Towers Bought at Peak

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley, the securities firm that spent more than $8 billion on commercial property in 2007, plans to relinquish five San Francisco office buildings to its lender two years after purchasing them from Blackstone Group LP near the top of the market.

The bank has been negotiating an “orderly transfer” of the towers since earlier this year, Alyson Barnes, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman, said yesterday in a telephone interview. AREA Property Partners will take over the buildings. Barnes declined to say when the transfer will occur.
.....

The San Francisco transfer would mark the second real estate deal to unravel this year for Morgan Stanley, which bet big on the property markets as prices were rising. The firm last month agreed to surrender 17 million square feet of office buildings to Barclays Capital after acquiring them for $6.5 billion in 2007 from Crescent Real Estate Equities. U.S. commercial real estate prices have dropped 43 percent from October 2007’s peak, Moody’s Investors Service said last month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLYZhnfoXOSk&pos=5

---

Check out this quote:

“This isn’t a default or foreclosure situation,” Barnes said. “We are going to give them the properties to get out of the loan obligation.”

Yeah. Right.

[Demeter]

40. but What If The Lender Doesn't WANT The Properties?

What then?

[54anickel]

43. We've got a few empty properties here in my little burb. Just sitting vacant, no for sale signs.

I don't know who's ultimately responsible for them, but a couple are now completely trashed due to broken water pipes from the cold. Good thing for the ones with private wells is that without power there's no continuous flow of water flooding the place. Not so for the homes in the village with municipal water - one racked up a mighty high water bill before the meter reader found the meter screaming and contacted the lender responsible. The fire department would be unable to get to many of them if needed since the long driveways haven't been cleared of snow and ice.

Guess if the lender doesn't want the property they just let it turn to shit and take the write-off. :shrug: I sure hope they aren't covered by insurance regardless of their negligence - if they are then everyone's rates will sky-rocket once again to help cover the losses.

[wordpix]

56. nearly half my town in CT where a lot of NYC execs have 2nd homes is for sale

It's getting a little scary here. :scared:

[54anickel]

44. Delete dreaded double post. n/t

[Festivito]

24. Debt: 12/16/2009 12,129,073,186,050.29 (DOWN 5,897,370,744.75) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days --repeat. Up big, then, today, a little up and down. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,769,366,691,556.14 + 4,359,706,494,494.15
UP 348,253,057.33 + DOWN 6,245,623,802.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,219,358 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,352.08.
A family of three owes $118,056.24. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,444,272,716.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,259,133,325.34.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 53 reports in 77 days of FY2010 averaging 4.14B$ per report, 2.85B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,131 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.7 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/16/2009 12,129,073,186,050.29 BHO (UP 1,502,196,137,137.21 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,219,244,182,538.50 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,039,274,371,773.41 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/25/2009 +000,525,986,426.45 ------------********
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********

158,010,823,089.09 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4188110&mesg_id=4188227

[Festivito]

48. Debt: 12/17/2009 12,097,698,782,543.93 (DOWN 31,374,403,506.36) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Up big, then up a little, today down half a bite off the two-day-ago jump up. Go figure. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,732,874,151,767.92 + 4,364,824,630,776.01
DOWN 36,492,539,788.22 + UP 5,118,136,281.86

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,227,998 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,249.19.
A family of three owes $117,747.57. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,653,621,593.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,945,989,168.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 54 reports in 78 days of FY2010 averaging 3.48B$ per report, 2.41B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,130 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/17/2009 12,097,698,782,543.93 BHO (UP 1,470,821,733,630.85 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,187,869,779,032.20 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,879,134,222,394.28 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -

120,992,296,874.42 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4190006&mesg_id=4190054

[UpInArms]

26. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.691 Change -0.003 (-0.00%)


Despite the US Dollar's Rally, Underlying Risk Appetite has yet to Break

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/carry_trade_basket/2009-12-18-0346-Despite_the_US_Dollar_s_Rally_.html



• Despite the US Dollar’s Rally, Underlying Risk Appetite has yet to Break
• How Significant a Threat are Sovereign Defaults and Bank Write Downs in 2010
• Yield Forecasts are Deteriorating Rapidly as Economic Reality Setting In

Over the past two weeks, the US dollar has surged across the board. And, considering this currency has stood as the primary funding currency to a burgeoning carry trade, it makes sense that the greenback’s performance could be interpreted as a sign that risk appetite is toppling. However, cause and effect do not connect here – at least not yet. Instead risk trends have extended the congestion that has set in since October/November; and the period of consolidation has allowed the world’s reserve currency correct speculative and fundamental extremes on its own. Yet, that should not be taken to mean that investor optimism, and the leveraged positioning it has encouraged, will not go uncontested. In capital markets’ aggressive rally throughout 2009, volatile speculative interest has overwhelmed comparatively stable investor inflows. There is a critical distinction between these two categories. Speculators (or traders) are looking for capital appreciation and will need to eventually book profit on their outright positions. In contrast, investors are looking for long-term appreciation, dividends or some other form of consistent interest income. This dichotomy helps expose the tension that has developed behind the scenes recently. Primary barometers for risk appetite like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Carry Trade Index - instead of correcting before the drain in liquidity that occurs at year-end - have developed tight ranges. This presents considerable tension for a market that is looking at potentially volatile conditions in the near future but not enough depth to establish a true trend.

All that is needed to tip risk trends into a tailspin is a definitive catalyst. We have plenty of potential threats to global, financial stability; but optimism or greed for greater returns has helped the markets weather most of tremors. This likely means that we need a market-based event. A particularly large withdrawal of capital from the speculative arena or the seizure of a critical node in the broader financial market could certainly spark a panic that leads to a cascade selling event. Ironically enough, the best opportunity to force the Dow below 10,250 or pitch the carry interest into a bleak bear trend is during the low liquidity-period that is approaching. While there is not enough market depth to maintain and develop a reversal; the low liquidity means it will be easier to unbalance sentiment. Therefore, we need only keep a vigilance on the already incubating fundamental troubles that have developed over the past few months and be ready for a new shock to catalyze price action itself. Among the key trends to watch, the threat of defaults on a corporate and national level is particularly troublesome. Not long ago, the IMF warned that the world’s banks have only accounted for half of the losses they will ultimately suffer from following the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Now, we are seeing downgrades on sovereign credit ratings that is further taxing an already fragile market that is now seeing some of its ‘safe’ assets degrading. Investors could weather this if the government maintained its support of the global economy and markets; but this safety net is already being rolled in. As stimulus and emergency aid is rolled back, the markets will increasingly have to support its own weight. And, considering how high valuations have run and the lack of true fundamentals to support recent heights; the outlook is fragile indeed.

...more...

Gold to Follow Silver Lower, Oil Looks to Dollar For Direction

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2009-12-18-1117-Gold_to_Follow_Silver_Lower_.html

Gold prices are positioning to follow silver lower with the cheaper precious metal showing signs of a major bearish reversal, while crude oil prices look to the US dollar to set directio heading into the end of the trading week.

Commodities – Energy
Crude Oil Looks to US Dollar to Set Direction

Crude Oil (WTI)       $73.40       +$0.75       +1.03%

Oil prices bounced from support at $71.46 and are now set to re-test the previous swing high at $73.55. A break above this juncture opens the door for a test of the psychological barrier at $74. The Baker-Hughes measure operational US oil rigs is the only item on the calendar, leaving prices to trade along the trajectory of the US Dollar heading into the week-end.



Commodities – Metals
Silver to Resume Decline, Gold to Follow

Gold       $1105.70       +$6.80       +0.62%

Gold prices took out minor double bottom support at $1111.55 with the bears now in position to challenge the next hurdle at a major rising trend line established from the lows in August (now at $1091.98). A break below would mark a significant trend reversal, with the initial support emerging at $1070.80. The US economic calendar is empty, but prices remain closely correlated with the outlook Federal Reserve monetary policy (as expressed by the spread between Dec’2010 and Mar’2010 fed funds futures), leaving markets to digest the upward revision in the priced-in yield forecast into the week-end.

Silver       $17.26       +$0.13       +0.76%

Unlike leading gold, silver looks to have already made its major bearish breakout. Last week, prices broke below major rising trend line support from the swing low in mid-July and prices are now showing a very formidable Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern having re-tested this trend line on the upside. A break below initial support at $17.15 opens the door for a move into the $16.13-16.70 congestion region. Significant support becomes harder to come by after this juncture, with a break lower exposing $15.05. In a similar fashion to gold, however, the 2010 fed funds futures spread is the key fundamental relationship behind price action.



...more...

[Ghost Dog]

37. Dollar Heads for Biggest Weekly Rally Versus Euro Since January; Swiss Franc Advances

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar was poised for the biggest weekly gain versus the euro since January after breaching $1.43 for the first time in three months, forcing traders to abandoned bearish bets on the greenback.

The Swiss franc advanced versus the euro as the Swiss National Bank refrained from selling the currency, pushing it beyond 1.50 for the first time since a rally in March led to an intervention. The euro fell against the dollar as the European Central Bank raised its estimate for writedowns in the nations that use the single currency by 13 percent.

/.. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aA7_bOkv0qUI
----

[Hugin]

29. Capital One settles litigation over card disputes (AP:B via SPI)

By MARK JEWELL
AP BUSINESS WRITER

BOSTON -- Capital One Financial Corp. will drop language from credit card contracts that requires customer disputes to be handled through binding arbitration rather than the courts, a spokeswoman for the bank said Thursday.

New agreements without the mandatory arbitration clause will be sent to all Capital One credit card customers next month, spokeswoman Pam Girardo said.

Word of the plans came as a law firm that sued major card issuers reported a tentative settlement with Capital One on Thursday over clauses requiring arbitration rather than litigation in disputes including debt collections. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reached a similar agreement last month in the four-year-old case, and Bank of America Corp. followed suit on Tuesday.

Girardo confirmed that McLean, Va.-based Capital One has reached a settlement with the firm Berger & Montague, subject to court approval.

But she said the litigation did not drive the decision to drop the arbitration clause. Most disputes with customers are handled through customer service channels, she said, and arbitration "has not been utilized often enough by either our cardholders or Capital One to warrant having it remain in the agreement."

Eliminating the provision, she said, "would be the simplest way to pre-empt any confusion or concern that might arise in the future."

Philadalphia-based Berger & Montague said its tentative settlements with Capital One and the two other card issuers leave four remaining defendants in the lawsuit: Citibank, Discover, HSBC and the National Arbitration Forum. The case is a class-action lawsuit brought on behalf of card holders in federal court in New York City.

More here... http://www.seattlepi.com/business/1310ap_us_capital_one_arbitration.html

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Now, lets see them live up to it.

[54anickel]

31. Oh my! Mission Accomplished, Dick?

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KL16Ak02.html

Iraq's oil auction hits the jackpot
By Pepe Escobar

BEIJING - Former United States vice president Dick Cheney, ex-defense minister Donald Rumsfeld and assorted US neo-cons will have plenty of time to nurse their apoplexy. One of their key reasons to unleash the war on Iraq in 2003 was to seize control of its precious oilfields and thus shape a great deal of the new great game in Eurasia - the energy front - by restricting the access of Europe and Asia to Iraq's staggering 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

After at least US$2 trillion spent by Washington and arguably more than a million dead Iraqis, it has come to this: a pipe dream definitely buried this past weekend in Baghdad with round two of bids to exploit a number of vast and immensely profitable oil fields.

The bids, supervised by the Oil Ministry, were presented on a live TV game show. Instead of American Idol, Iraqis got "Oil Idol". In a raucous carpet bazaar atmosphere, the ministry played "my way or the highway" and forced 44 foreign Big Oil corporations to cut to the max the fee they collect on every barrel extracted in Iraq and submit to 20-year contracts. These multinationals were not given a share in Iraqi oil production; they will be paid a $2 fee per barrel for raising output above a mutually agreed level.

Still, for Big Oil, the possibility of having a crack at all those mega-giant fields in Shi'ite-controlled southeast Iraq - the largest concentration of its kind in the world - led all players to yell , "It's raining oil!" Once you've paid the ticket, you're inside the theater. And what a theatre ... The Iraqi government may end up paying foreign Big Oil as much as $50 billion for its know-how. All these "service" deals will dodge Iraq's parliament - which might throw a wrench in the works. And Big Oil will still get $2 for each barrel of extra crude above a minimum production target.

In June, Iraq held its first oil auction, offering foreign companies the chance to increase production at already-pumping fields. The latest auction was the first time foreign firms could bid on untapped fields. Of the 10 groups of fields available, seven were awarded.

Win-win for Russia and China
Cheney's and Rumsfeld's script was never supposed to develop like this. Instead of US Big Oil getting the lion's share, strategic competitors Russia and China turned out to be big winners. Dick Cheney's "consolation prize" was an Exxon-Mobil-Shell alliance getting the phase 1 of West Qurna in early November. Exxon-Mobil had been the favorite to also win Rumaila (17.8 billion barrels of reserves). But a BP-CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) alliance got it in the end because unlike Exxon-Mobil they agreed to cut their fee per barrel down to the Oil Ministry-enforced $2.

more...

[Demeter]

42. Just Desserts IMO

Victims don't usually marry their rapists. Not the sane ones.

[54anickel]

45. I think the author has written off Cheney and company for dead prematurely in his closing paragraph.

What the early 2010s will definitely see is the rise of a relatively wealthy, Shi'ite-controlled Iraq friendly with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Essentially, Shi'ite Islam on the rise. The US-friendly autocracies and dictatorships in the Gulf will cry again, "It's the return of the Shi'ite crescent!" United States think-tanks may be tempted to define Maliki as the new Saddam. The only difference is that by then, Cheney and company will be safely ensconced in the dustbin of history.

Looking back at the history of PNAC involvement in US-Iraq relations, Don't bet on it.

[Robbien]

49. Even GQ knows that Cheney is still in the game

GQ's list of the most powerful people in DC has Cheney in slot number nine, one above Chief Justice John Roberts

GQ's list of top ten:
http://www.gq.com/news-politics/politics/200911/50-most-powerful-people-in-dc#slide=1


1. Rahm Emanuel
2. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
4. Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.)
5. OMB Director Peter Orszag
6. White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod
7. Tim Geithner and Larry Summers
8. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
9. Dick Cheney
10. Chief Justice John Roberts


The entire list of fifty most powerful is full of capitalists and warmongers. Not a tree hugger in the bunch.

[Joe Chi Minh]

50. In case you haven't read this item on an interview withTaleb by Will Self, here it is:

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/GQ.pdf

[Ghost Dog]

52. Thanks Joe. Looks like I'll have to print, to read.

Meanwhile, thinks: Ah Will Self! Alpha Literary Monkey.

:)

[Joe Chi Minh]

57. Definitely. A man who thinks in such strikingly original terms is really

something. His comments on the Question Time* panel tended to be mordantly insightful and far too infrequent.

*For American DUers unfamiliar with it, Question Time is a political, infotainment, audience-participation show.

[Joe Chi Minh]

58. Oh, no! They're not going to throw the public into the briar patch, what with they're

threatening to go and 'work' abroad and all that, are they?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/18/executive-pay-bonuses-bankofenglandgovernor