STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 21, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 18, 2009

Dow... 10,328.89 +20.63 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq... 2,211.69 +31.64 (+1.45%)
S&P 500... 1,102.47 +6.39 (+0.58%)
Gold future... 1,112 +4.60 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.54 +0.06 (+1.61%)
30-Year Bond 4.45 +0.04 (+0.84%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

A Brief Market Update

"You have been Warned!"

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers above $73 ahead of OPEC meeting

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $73 a barrel Monday in Asia ahead of an OPEC meeting where investors expect the cartel to keep production levels unchanged.
.....

Traders have begun to also watch the February contract, which rose 11 cents to $74.53 on Monday.

Leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have signaled in recent weeks the group doesn't plan to change output levels at its meeting Tuesday in Luanda, Angola.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.98 cent to $1.97 while gasoline rose was steady at $1.90. Natural gas rose 9.5 cents to $5.88 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

13. U.S. Gasoline Falls to $2.5964 a Gallon, Survey Shows

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The average price of regular gasoline at U.S. filling stations declined to $2.5964 a gallon as stockpiles of the motor fuel climbed and demand fell.

Gasoline lost 3.89 cents in the two weeks ended Dec. 18, according to a survey ending on the same day of 5,000 filling stations nationwide by Trilby Lundberg, an independent gasoline analyst in Camarillo, California.
.....

Stockpiles of gasoline last week were the highest since April 17. Supplies have risen 3.9 percent in four weeks to 5 percent above revised figures from a year earlier and 4 percent higher than the period’s five-year average.
.....

Lundberg said the latest price in her survey is about 93 cents higher than a year earlier. That is why, she said, the current price “feels high.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPqaprSzlLZk&pos=7

[ozymandius]

4. Who wins, who loses in Senate health bill

...
WINNERS

• Nebraska, Louisiana, Vermont and Massachusetts. These states are getting more federal help with Medicaid than other states. In the case of Nebraska — represented by Sen. Ben Nelson, who's providing the critical 60th vote for the legislation to pass — the federal government is picking up 100 percent of the tab of a planned expansion of the program, in perpetuity. Vermont and Massachusetts get temporary increases in the federal share of their Medicaid tabs. In Louisiana, moderate Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu negotiated $100 million for 2011 before announcing her support for the legislation.

• Beneficiaries of Medicare Advantage plans — the private managed-care plans within Medicare — in Florida. Hundreds of thousands of them will have their benefits grandfathered in thanks to a provision tailored by Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., that also affects a much smaller number of seniors in a few other states.

• Community health centers. They got $10 billion more in the revised bill, thanks to advocacy by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.

LOSERS

• Progressives. They had to give up on their long-held dream of a new government-run insurance plan so that Democratic leaders could lock down the necessary votes from moderates.

• Generic drug makers. They fought unsuccessfully to block 12 years of protection that makers of brand-name biotech drugs — expensive pharmaceuticals made from living cells — will get against generic would-be competitors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091221/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_overhaul_winners_and_losers

More at link...

[Tansy_Gold]

8. The last two are losers, right? n/t

[ozymandius]

10. Yes.

I will go back to edit that detail.

[rfranklin]

5. Hi Ozy! Was worried about you...

Usually you are posting an hour earlier.

[ozymandius]

6. Thank you. But not to worry.

School is on its Winter break for two weeks. So I do not bother with setting an alarm. It's a little startling to see how much sleep I was not getting when school was in session.

Thanks, again. :hi:

[UpInArms]

15. good morning, Ozy!

Glad to see you are able to finally get some well deserved rest.

:grouphug:

[ozymandius]

17. Good morning to you too.

:donut: :hug:

Nice to see you around the thread early in the week. I know work keeps you hopping - especially with the snowstorm I read about.

[UpInArms]

18. You're right - Mondays and Tuesdays are a bear

and that storm definitely stopped my wheels in the driveway (along with some stupid car troubles) - but hopefully, this week will be a breeze and I'll get to have some time off later in the week.

Stay warm and safe!

:hug:

[ozymandius]

7. Asian Shares End Mixed

Asian markets finished Monday on a mixed note with major indexes posting modest moves in pre-holiday trade as concerns over further property-market cooling measures weighed on Hong Kong, but strength in oil shares offered support for the Japanese market.
.....

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed 1.1% lower, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%, South Korea's Kospi Composite lost 0.2%, and New Zealand's NZX-50 finished down 0.1%. But Japan's Nikkei 225 and Taiwan's main index each added 0.4% and China's Shanghai Composite climbed 0.3%.

Among other regional markets, Philippine shares closed up 0.1%, Singapore's Straits Times Index ended 0.6% lower and India's Sensex lost 0.7%.
......

Asian markets had weakened last week amid concerns over Beijing's property-cooling measures, but also due to "renewed global crisis fears prompted by the sovereign downgrade of Greece and warnings about potential future downgrades of Spain, the U.K. and the U.S.," said Martin Hennecke, associate director at Tyche Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. "This sovereign debt crisis is … only getting started and this clearly warrants caution for all investors, in all markets."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107604574608752982111762.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_markets

[ozymandius]

9. Shares of Spyker soar after it makes new offer for GM's Saab

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Spyker Cars N.V. surged on Monday after the Dutch car maker said it has submitted a new offer for Saab, the Swedish unit of General Motors, after an earlier deal broke down last week.
.....

GM had said Friday it would wind down Saab after it was unable to reach a deal to sell it to Spyker Cars, a Dutch producer of high-end sports cars, because certain issues arose during due diligence that couldn't be resolved.

However, Spyker said Sunday it had submitted an 11-point proposal to GM, addressing each of the issues that arose during the due diligence process.

The renewed offer, Spyker said, would remove the obstacles that were standing in the way of a swift transaction. Spyker's new offer for Saab is valid until 5 p.m. Eastern time on Monday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shares-of-spyker-soar-after-new-offer-for-saab-2009-12-21?reflink=MW_news_stmp

[rfranklin]

19. Seems a strange deal, an exotic car maker buying a mass production company...

http://www.spykercars.nl/?pag=8

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.644 Change -0.105 (-0.14%)


Currency Markets in Flux as Interest Rates Begin to Overshadow Risk Trends

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2009-12-21-1107-Currency_Markets_in_Flux_as.html

The economic calendar carries no significant event risk in European trading ours, leaving currency markets to find their bearings after last week’s major developments, with the changing outlook towards the US Dollar in the spotlight.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japan's Trade Surplus Shrinks in November But Trend Points Higher
• Bank Of Japan Builds on New Dovish Posture in Monthly Report

Critical Levels



The Euro and the British Pound consolidated near familiar levels in overnight trading, oscillating near last Friday’s levels to start the trading week. We remain short EURUSD at 1.4881 and short GBPUSD at 1.6648.

Asia Session Highlights



Japan’s Trade Balance surplus registered at 373.9 billion yen in November, narrowing from 805.4 billion in the previous month. Looking past month-to-month volatility at the annual trend in trade flows, however, the result amounts to a 601.4 billion yen expansion from the -227.5 billion deficit recorded in November 2008. Indeed, the headline trade balance figure has been inching higher since bottoming in January as imports bore the brunt of sagging labor markets while global fiscal mitigated the decline in export. This time around was no different as overseas sales slipped -6.2% while domestic purchases of foreign goods slumped -16.8% from the previous year. Although the jobless rate has declined recently, this can hardly be called an improvement considering the lower headline owed to discouraged workers exiting the labor force rather than added hiring, which would seem to suggest that current trade patterns will persist as imports remain lackluster. It remains to be seen if the 600 billion yen allocated to boosting job growth in the government’s new stimulus plan will have a meaningful impact.

The monthly report from the Bank of Japan said the economy was “picking up” but policymakers conspicuously kept their forecast for growth unchanged after upgrading for three consecutive months. While subtle, this could be a reflection of the central bank’s new-found dovish posture that emerged at last week’s monetary policy meeting. As we discussed in detail in our Japanese Yen weekly forecast report, Maasaki Shirakawa and company may be starting to cave in to pressure from the Ministry of Finance to continue on with its liquidity-boosting asset purchase programs, which carries bullish implications for USDJPY.

...more...

US Dollar: Will Thin Liquidity Leverage or Thwart the Dollar’s Rally?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2009-12-19-0232-US_Dollar__Will_Thin_Liquidity.html

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- The dollar develops strength through interest rate forecasts, relative growth projections and risk aversion
- Consumer-level inflation revives the argument for hikes but FOMC holds the line
- The dollar keys in on potential breakouts against the Euro, Australian dollar, British pound and Canadian dollar

The dollar rallied against all of the majors this past week. In fact, on a trade weighted basis, the greenback has rallied for nearly three weeks and climbed over five percent trough-to-peak. More importantly, putting this strength into perspective, the advance has tentatively called for a meaningful trend reversal in the reserve currencies favor. This is a long-overdue reversal considering its initial decline developed through most of 2009. However, this rally will carry the qualifier “tentative” until after the abnormal trading conditions of the year-end period pass and the underlying investor sentiment finally collapses under its own weight. We are heading into a highly reactive and malleable period the markets; and nascent trends can be quickly snuffed out or heartily amplified given the right combination of conditions. Which combination should we expect of the greenback?

The most impressionable and vague dynamic for the currency market over the next few weeks is general trading conditions. Most of the Western world will shut down for the Christmas holiday; but liquidity will drop off well before the actual markets close and will remain depressed until after the turn of the year. History has shown us instances where similar situations have stabilized markets and dampened volatility; but there have also been cases when the leveraged influence of speculators has amplified price action and setoff meaningful breakouts. Though we cannot truly tell which level of activity is in store for the markets next week, the abundance of potential energy and a busy economic docket warrants caution. Considering the aggressive move the dollar has made over the past three weeks, the currency is working with considerable momentum. Extending or retracing this move would merely be a factor of speculative interest (which there will be no shortage of through the end of the year).

There are a few prominent drivers that should be monitored. Interest rate speculation has been a major contributor to the dollar’s strength so far; and the consensus forecast for a hike in June is closing in. This also ties directly into the currency’s standing on the risk spectrum. The benchmark US market rate (the three-month Libor) is still edging towards record lows; but its pace has slowed. This factor has certainly contributed to the dollar’s malaise as investors have moved from diversifying safe haven assets to using the currency to fund the reemergent carry trade. However, a long-term assessment of financing tells us that US rates will rise eventually (and more likely soon). And, though the Japanese Libor is trading at a premium now; the government’s fight against deflation means the cost of financing in the Land of the Rising Sun will be far cheaper over the long-term. Finally, the most prolific threat to volatility is underlying risk trends. While the appreciation in a number of asset classes can be attributed to risk appetite; in reality, sentiment has been in a holding pattern for the past few months. A clear break from the Dow (above 10,500 or below 10,250) would likely command a significant reaction from the dollar.

And, while there are major fundamental themes in the background, it is important to remain conscious of scheduled event risk. The economic docket is littered with notable releases that can leverage volatility during the thin liquidity conditions. Top event risk though the period is the personal spending and income data for its updates on consumers – the critical component of growth. Other notables include: new and existing home sales; durable goods; and the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index. We may be in for a crazy week.



...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Japan PM drops pledge due to bulging debt

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE5BK03Z20091221

TOKYO, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, his ratings slipping on doubts about his leadership, gave up on Monday one important campaign pledge in order to rein in a huge public debt worrying investors and voters alike.

Hatoyama, scrambling to put together the budget for the year from April 1 by the end of this month, said he would replace a surcharge on gasoline with a new tax at the same rate due to falling tax revenues. This is a reversal of a main campaign pledge to end the surcharge.

He said he would keep his promise to hand out child allowances to families, regardless of their income. Hatoyama also said he would devote 2 trillion yen ($22.11 billion) to support jobs and regional economies.

Support for Hatoyama's 3-month-old government sank as low as 48 percent in surveys published on Monday and the weekend as he faced potentially divisive decisions to keep the fiscal 2010/11 budget on track.

The polls showed voters were disappointed by Hatoyama's apparent inability to make quick decisions, but were open to him backtracking on election promises in view of rising debt.

"I need to apologise as we didn't follow our campaign platform," Hatoyama told reporters. "But when we look at reality, it is important to protect the environment. So we decided to maintain the surcharge."

Hatoyama's Democrats, joined in an awkward coalition with two small but noisy partners, took office in September pledging to put more cash in consumers' pockets.

But with public debt approaching 200 percent of GDP, more than 70 percent of respondents in two surveys said they believed income limits should be set on eligibility for child allowances. More than half said the gasoline surcharge should stay in place.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Dubai World offers creditors no plan on debt delay

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE5BK08Z20091221

DUBAI, Dec 21 (Reuters) - State-owned Dubai World did not ask creditors for a standstill on $22 billion of debt at a meeting on Monday, adding to uncertainty for investors who have been in the dark for weeks and hurting local bank shares.

Dubai's flagship conglomerate met around 90 of its creditors and was expected to formalise a request for a debt standstill.

But a Dubai World spokesman said the meeting was an overview of potential ways to move forward and that creditors needed to form a panel for talks to proceed.

The company said in a statement later that it would work with financial creditors to seek standstill "in an orderly way".

Dubai sent shockwaves through global markets on Nov. 25 when it said it would request a standstill on billions of dollars of debts linked to Dubai World and its property units Limitless and Nakheel , developer of three palm-shaped islands.

A $10 billion lifeline from wealthier neighbour Abu Dhabi last week -- the third this year -- helped Dubai stave off default on a $4.1 billion Islamic bond from Nakheel and provided enough funds to service debts until April.

Banks had lent to Dubai government-linked firms on the implicit understanding that they were backed by Abu Dhabi or by the federal government of the oil-exporting United Arab Emirates, of which both Dubai and Abu Dhabi are a part.

...more...

[ozymandius]

16. Today's first dose of schadenfreude.

London Exodus to Geneva Runs Into Housing, School Shortages

Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Geneva, touted as a haven for London bankers facing heavier U.K. taxes, may lure fewer than predicted thanks to a housing shortage, crowded schools and a 44 percent income-tax rate.

Barclays Plc President Robert Diamond this month joined a chorus of financial leaders in arguing that the U.K.’s 50 percent tax on bonuses would drive bankers away from London. The Swiss Private Bankers Association said the “arbitrary” tax will boost the allure of Geneva, whose bankers oversee about 10 percent of the world’s foreign-held private wealth.

“It’s a joke, it’s lobbying,” said Tim Dawson, an analyst at Geneva-based brokerage Helvea AG. “People are dreaming if they think the London investment banking world is going to move. There is more office space in Canary Wharf than in the whole of Switzerland,” he said, referring to London’s second financial district.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said this month that banks awarding discretionary bonuses of more than 25,000 pounds would have to pay a one-time levy of 50 percent. That followed earlier decisions to boost the top tax rate to 50 percent and rescind special breaks for residents whose tax home is outside the country.

---

I also wonder why Swiss banks and hedge fund brokerages would want to employ people who were involved with sinking two Britain's biggest banks.

[rfranklin]

20. I think you nailed that one...

Resume: Actively created and executed largest financial meltdown in the history of the world. Seeking a position in which I can proactively employ these skills.

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. There are lots of college trust funds seeking the next

Larry Summers :evilgrin:

Good Morning :donut:

[ozymandius]

28. Ha! Really!

Good one. I can just hear the conversation in the Ivory Tower.

"If only we could have a genius like Larry Summers working for us. Then we would be on the road to big money."

Of course, that's big money with a negative sign in front of it.

[DemReadingDU]

21. Where is everyone?

only 4 recs at 8AM. Are people sleeping in, vacation? shopping?

[Tansy_Gold]

23. I'm here! I'm here!

Rec #2 at 5;15.

Sleeping in? Vacation? Is that some new foreign language? ;-)


Hope everyone on the east coast dug out okay and didn't slide on the fresh ice. I worry about all of you.



TG2012

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. Up heeyuh that stawm wooda been just a few flakes ovah a dustin. n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Here it would've been. . ..

. . . . well, kinda like ol' Scratch could put on his ice skates! :evilgrin:


Chilly here this morning, though, maybe 45, and cooler weather settling in. Highs most of the rest of the week will only be uppr 50s, low 60s.

I can hear Roland99 chuckling now. . . . .



TG

[Dr.Phool]

32. He is laughing. He's only about 90 miles away, and I can hear him.

Actually it got down to the low 40's along the Central Coast last night. When that low pressure system started out on Wed., in the Gulf, the one wreaking havoc in the NE now, it kicked my arthritis into overdrive. At least I can walk again. Hopefully that's over now. The Forecast is for 70's and showere X-mas day.

[CatholicEdHead]

40. It is looking like an foot of fresh snow here on Christmas Day

[Tansy_Gold]

41. Saturday, 19 December 2009

One photo from the outdoor craft show I did this past week-end.

And no, I'm not in this picture.





TG

[Warpy]

39. We had one here 3 years ago and I couldn't get out for a week

This town doesn't have any snow plows.

[ozymandius]

22. Stocks 1999-2009: Worst. Decade. Ever.

From Ritholtz:

From today’s WSJ, comes this (amusing) article about the past decade: Its the worst equity performance in nearly 2 centuries.

Why do I say amusing?

Because despite what many fools and asshats were claiming in the 1990s, stocks can only gain so much relative to earnings. Sure, other factors like population growth, economic expansion, productivity gains, all matter on the margins, but the bottom line is Earnings. But over the long haul, there is only so far you can run ahead of historical median rates of return.

The current horrific decade lost half a percent each year on average versus average annual returns of about 10-12% over the past century. Why? This under-performance is payback for the massive gains in the salad days of the late 1990s. As the table at right shows, the gains were far above median.

There is only so far you can deviate from the historical mathematical norm before mean reversion rears its ugly head.

From the WSJ:

“Even with the rebound this year, the U.S. stock market is on the verge of posting its worst performance for any calendar decade in nearly 200 years of American stock-market history.

Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else, from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress. Since the end of 1999, stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade.

In the process, the market has provided a lesson for ordinary Americans who used stocks as the primary way of saving for retirement.

Link to The Big Picture

As for my personal take on this in terms of a big picture: I believe that relying on the stock market for your retirement years is a sham. Companies that used to offer pensions love the 401(k) shuffle because it saves them money and time (and time=money).

[ozymandius]

24. Bill Moyers video for those who need to boost their blood pressure.

Bill Moyers: Taibbi and Kuttner on Health Care Reform

Here is a transcript of the intro:

BILL MOYERS: Welcome to the Journal.

Something’s not right here. One year after the great collapse of our financial system, Wall Street is back on top while our politicians dither. As for health care reform, you’re about to be forced to buy insurance from companies whose stock is soaring, and that’s just dandy with the White House.

Truth is, our capitol’s being looted, republicans are acting like the town rowdies, the sheriff is firing blanks, and powerful Democrats in Congress are in cahoots with the gang that’s pulling the heist. This is not capitalism at work. It’s capital. Raw money, mounds of it, buying politicians and policy as if they were futures on the hog market.

Here to talk about all this are two journalists who don’t pull their punches. Robert Kuttner is an economist who helped create and now co-edits the progressive magazine THE AMERICAN PROSPECT, and the author of the book OBAMA’S CHALLENGE, among others.

Also with me is Matt Taibbi, who covers politics for ROLLING STONE magazine where he is a contributing editor. He’s made a name for himself writing in a no-holds-barred, often profane, but always informative and stimulating style that gets under the skin of the powerful. His most recent article is “Obama’s Big Sellout,” about the President’s team of economic advisers and their Wall Street connections. It’s been burning up the blogosphere. Welcome to both of you.

link to video

[Tansy_Gold]

26. I'll bookmark this for 12/25 reading

My day for catching up on everything. . . ..

[ozymandius]

29. Goldman Threatens to “Move” 20% of UK Staff to Spain to Escape Bonus Supertax

So we now have an official demonstration of what we all knew to be true: banksters giving their right to loot their companies top priority, and the greater fool public be damned, with Goldman the most egregious sinner. That firm’s self serving protestations to the contrary, it was a ward of the state, and would not exist now were it not for the munificence of taxpayers. It continues to profit from a raft of subsidies, ranging from FDIC guaranteed debt, a whole alphabet soup of special Fed facilities, and super low interest rates. As Linda Beale points out:

A recent study suggests that big banks in the TBTF category now enjoy a significant cost-of-funds spread compared to other banks. That is, they can borrow money more cheaply, leading to greater ability to make profits, than can other banks, because of the implicit guarantee that the federal government will step in and save them because they are TBTF and pose a systemic risk. That advantage may amount to as much as 48% of the TBTF banks’ profits this year (or as ‘little’ as 9%, on very conservative assumptions). The government, by the way, gets nothing for this implicit guarantee–unlike a commercial guarantor, it is not being paid a regular premium for the service.

So a significant portion of Goldman and other big bank profits are effectively windfall profits due to government largesse. And they are paying themselves bonuses on it.

.....
Goldman, per the Independent (hat tip readers Edward and Scott), is out, as usual, to have its cake and eat it too, to enjoy the benefits of all the rescue subsidies but not bear the related tool:

Goldman Sachs has threatened the UK Treasury with plans to move up to 20 per cent of its London-based staff to Spain in a standoff over tax and bonuses.

It’s believed that the Wall Street investment bank, which paid more than £2bn to the Exchequer’s ailing coffers in corporation tax alone last year, has fired a warning shot across the Government’s bows in response to the tax measures unveiled in the pre-Budget report earlier this month.
.....

The bank, which employs around 5,000 staff in London, is believed to have strong links to the Spanish government, although it has a relatively modest number of employees in the country. Although staff moving to Spain would not receive any special tax incentives, the bank could avoid paying the bonus tax, details of which, so far, remain sketchy. A Goldman Sachs spokesman said it is looking at all options as it negotiates with the tax authorities over the bonus tax.

Yves here. Negotiates? Why should Goldman enjoy any such rights in this matter? It operates in business that require licenses and benefits greatly from the massive and costly safety net that has been deployed under the financial system.

The Bank of England has indicated that it would regard the departure of banksters as a cost it is willing to bear in the interest of having a financial system that operated more prudently than the one we have now. But having Goldman shift staff to Spain and yet be part of the financial grid and therefore still able to suck off the Fed and the Bank of England when it gets itself in trouble is abuse, pure and simple.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/goldman-threatens-to-move-20-of-uk-staff-to-spain-to-escape-bonus-supertax.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. I doubt that Spain's sovereign worth would be sufficient to satiate the goldman beast

[Dr.Phool]

34. Ozy, do you have an evil twin?

I was wandering around some of the other forums (ewww) over the week-end and noticed someone named "Ozymanthrax".

[ozymandius]

37. I've seen that one.

That's not my sock puppet. So far I've had no interaction with Ozymanthrax. Interesting name, though. I wonder what it means.

[rfranklin]

33. Happy talkin', talkin', happy talk...Chicago Fed's Evans sees low inflation ahead

Dec. 21, 2009, 10:18 a.m. EST

Chicago Fed's Evans sees low inflation ahead
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. inflation rates are expected to remain modest for the next few years because of high unemployment and other idle resources, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC in an interview Monday. Inflation expectations are well anchored, he said. Evans said he expects high unemployment to persist, giving the Fed room to keep interest rates low for an extended period. Evans said he expects growth in the 3% to 3.5% range for the next year and a half.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=E6DC8B85-35A3-413C-92AD-3A75BA315A39

Comment on Marketwatch: "I want some of what he's smokin'!"

[DemReadingDU]

35. Oh, CRE: Holiday parody of the song O Christmas Tree

From the 2009 VERSUS Holiday Songbook!

A musical parody of the traditional song "O Christmas Tree (O Tannenbaum)," about commercial real estate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdofHKYmV4A



For the complete VERSUS Holiday Songbook, the complete collection of VERSUS economy parodies and the complete collection of VERSUS parodies, visit us at http://versusplus.com.

[Demeter]

42. That Was Extraordinary--Thank You!

[Festivito]

36. Debt: 12/17/2009 12,097,698,782,543.93 (DOWN 31,374,403,506.36) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down for days--repeat. Well, it went up big, moved a little here and there over some days and now it's down again. If it were a rollercoaster, it'd be a gud'un. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,732,874,151,767.92 + 4,364,824,630,776.01
DOWN 36,492,539,788.22 + UP 5,118,136,281.86

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,227,998 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,249.19.
A family of three owes $117,747.57. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,653,621,593.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,945,989,168.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 54 reports in 78 days of FY2010 averaging 3.48B$ per report, 2.41B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,130 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/17/2009 12,097,698,782,543.93 BHO (UP 1,470,821,733,630.85 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,187,869,779,032.20 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,879,134,222,394.28 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/27/2009 +003,712,180,392.83 ------------*********
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -

120,992,296,874.42 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4190006&mesg_id=4190054

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 12/18/2009 12,097,983,161,366.65 (UP 284,378,822.72) (Fri)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. These jumps make the linear projection jump as well, still it seems to project that Obama will spend less than Bush's 2008 fiscal year, and far less than the 2009 FY Bush left Obama to follow. Eat that smarmy lie-passing Republican fools.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,733,584,412,748.27 + 4,364,398,748,618.38
UP 710,260,980.35 + DOWN 425,882,157.63

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,236,638 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,249.01.
A family of three owes $117,747.03. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,080,929,993.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,259,348,661.76.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 55 reports in 79 days of FY2010 averaging 3.42B$ per report, 2.38B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,129 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/18/2009 12,097,983,161,366.65 BHO (UP 1,471,106,112,453.57 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,188,154,157,854.90 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,869,319,843,253.65 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/30/2009 +096,793,151,824.92 ------------********** Mon
12/01/2009 -005,135,833,471.71 --
12/02/2009 -000,337,841,945.81 ---
12/03/2009 +002,787,837,042.67 ------------*********
12/04/2009 +000,210,551,232.36 ------------********
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********

117,990,377,461.94 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4193513&mesg_id=4193821

[ozymandius]

38. Senate's insurance company welfare bill leads stocks higher.

Healthcare stocks, brokerage upgrades lift shares

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks gained more than 1 percent on Monday, buoyed by healthcare shares, after a Senate bill advanced which had been stripped of provisions seen as detrimental to health insurance and other companies.
.....

Legislation to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system passed a crucial test early Monday as backers cleared a procedural hurdle to approving President Barack Obama's top legislative priority.

Following the vote, the Morgan Stanley Health Payor index (.HMO) climbed 3.8 percent while insurer Aetna Inc (AET.N) added 5.9 percent to $34.30.
.....

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 111.55 points, or 1.08 percent, to 10,439.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) rose 13.04 points, or 1.18 percent, to 1,115.42. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) jumped 25.47 points, or 1.15 percent, to 2,237.14.

---

Ever wonder why stock portfolios among members of the Senate greatly outpace portfolios held by the public-at-large?