STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 30

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday December 30, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 29, 2009

Dow... 10,545.41 -1.67 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,288.40 -2.68 (-0.12%)
S&P 500... 1,126.19 -1.59 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 1,098 -9.80 (-0.89%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.80 -0.05 (-1.17%)
30-Year Bond 4.64 -0.05 (-1.07%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. That was weird seeing two thread posts. This is the "official" thread, BTW.

I have alerted the mods on the other thread.

[DemReadingDU]

10. never saw the other thread. weird

Glad I rec'd this one. 1st rec too!
:)

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

A Look at Various Measures of Inflation
A review of November, 2009 Producer Price Indexes (PPI), Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Indexes (PCE)
BY RON GRIESS

Therein you will find many annotated charts.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[DemReadingDU]

12. Inflation?

most charts are down trending, heading to deflation

[Demeter]

22. Wishful Thinking. Inflation Is the Only Thing That Can Save "Globalism"

so the pirates can keep looting. But seeing as how that trick is defeated by zero interst rates, the Global pirates are stymied.

They might actually have to work for profits, produce something of value, stain those lily-white hands with manufacturing, of all things! The psychic shock would immobilize them, surely, as would the demands of workers.

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

09:45 Chicago PMI Dec
Briefing.com 56.0
Consensus 55.1
Prior 56.1

10:30 Crude Inventories 12/25
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -4.84M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

4. Oil falls amid reported rise in US inventories

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices fell slightly Wednesday in Asia amid a surprise rise in U.S. weekly crude inventory ahead of the release of government data.

Benchmark crude for February delivery was down 10 cents to $78.77 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 10 cents to settle at $78.87 on Tuesday.

Oil has gained for five straight days but traded lower early Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of 1.725 million barrels in U.S. inventories last week, said Clarence Chu, a trader with Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore.
.....

In other Nymex trading in January contracts, heating oil rose 0.1 cent to $2.1038 gallon while gasoline added 0.24 cent to $2.013 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[bread_and_roses]

39. wasn't just the other day "oil rises amid US drop in supply?"

I guess it was someone else's turn to make $$ today?

[ozymandius]

5. Broadcasters' woes could spell trouble for free TV

NEW YORK – For more than 60 years, TV stations have broadcast news, sports and entertainment for free and made their money by showing commercials. That might not work much longer.

The business model is unraveling at ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox and the local stations that carry the networks' programming. Cable TV and the Web have fractured the audience for free TV and siphoned its ad dollars. The recession has squeezed advertising further, forcing broadcasters to accelerate their push for new revenue to pay for programming.

That will play out in living rooms across the country. The changes could mean higher cable or satellite TV bills, as the networks and local stations squeeze more fees from pay-TV providers such as Comcast and DirecTV for the right to show broadcast TV channels in their lineups. The networks might even ditch free broadcast signals in the next few years. Instead, they could operate as cable channels — a move that could spell the end of free TV as Americans have known it since the 1940s.

The future of free TV also could be altered as the biggest pay-TV provider, Comcast Corp., prepares to take control of NBC. Comcast has not signaled plans to end NBC's free broadcasts. But Jeff Zucker, who runs NBC and its sister cable channels such as CNBC and Bravo, told investors this month that "the cable model is just superior to the broadcast model."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091229/ap_on_en_tv/us_free_broadcasters_in_peril

[Dr.Phool]

16. There's a big brouhaha over "free" TV in Tampa fight now.

The local Fox affiliate is demanding higher ransom from Bright House Cable. If they don't work something out before midnight tomorrow, Bright House won't be able to show the local affiliate, and a couple of other channels. Unfortunately Faux News has a separate agreement.

Bright House says that Channel 13 is seeking a 300% increase in fees to carry the free station.

If they get cut off, a lot of people will miss the Sugar Bowl on New Years, with Florida playing Cincy.

:cry:

I couldn't care. I'll still get to see Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.

[DemReadingDU]

17. Hey, same in Ohio

Fox and TimeWarner having issues

[Dr.Phool]

19. Yep, I think Bright House is owned by Time Warner.

Verizon has been really kicking their ass in the market since they rolled out Fios fiber optic.

[Demeter]

23. Seeing As the Quality and Quantity of News and Entertainment Were Declining for 30 Years or More

it's not surprising. (I can't speak for sports, as that's not my thing, but there still seems to be an awful lot of sports broadcast. On the other hand, they still pay athletes very handsomely).

Even the quality and entertainment value of commercials has dropped to less than zero.

Even CABLE has debased its reason for existence.

Piracy doesn't really work in the entertainment business--if an artist wants to get something from the audience, she/he has to give something.

And that's where globalism breaks down. It's all take and no give. Hence it will fail, and rapidly, now. There's no more loot to take.

[ozymandius]

6. GMAC may receive 3rd round of bailout funds

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- GMAC Financial Services is close to receiving a third round of bailout funds from the U.S. Treasury Department, according to a published report Wednesday.

The announcement for the troubled auto and mortgage lender to collect $3.5 billion of additional aid on top of the $13.5 billion already received since December 2008 is expected within days, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The fresh lifeline is intended to return Detroit-based GMAC to profitability in the first quarter of 2010, according to the report, and will likely allow GMAC to avoid placing its home lending unit, Residential Capital, into bankruptcy.
.....

Earlier this year, the government, which owns a 35.4% stake in the firm, told GMAC to raise additional capital from private investors by Nov. 9 as part of the spring's stress tests of the nation's largest banks.
.....

Still, GMAC, which provides financing for General Motors and Chrysler and their customers, lost $5.3 billion in the first nine months of 2009, as demand for cars remained tepid and previous loans continued to go sour.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/30/news/companies/gmac_bailout/

[Po_d Mainiac]

24. Who coulda seen those 72 mos. loans

coming back to bite them on the ass? Everyone knows that autos and RE will always increase in value. (insert dripping "S" word) No chance of underwater loans there.
:shrug: :shrug: :shrug:

[Tansy_Gold]

32. The thing is, they should've known with auto loans

I mean, they're underwater all the time. As soon as you drive a new car off the lot, it's lost value, probably to the tune of most of the downpayment. And people are always trading in a vehicle that's worth less than the balance on the loan, so they roll it over and in three or four trades they're paying $35,000 for a $20,000 truck. So then someone comes along to sell you "gap" insurance to cover the difference if the vehicle gets wrecked or stolen.

The come-on ads on TV leave the fine print virtually invisible for the 2.3 seconds it's actually displayed. Your rate isn't the same as "qualified buyers" get, so you're paying two, three, four times what's advertised.

The auto financers were just plain greedy. They knew autos don't increase in value. They just wanted the money.

Tough luck, suckers.




TG

[ozymandius]

7. European equities slip, Frankfurt to close early

LONDON — European stocks fell Wednesday in subdued trade, as investors took profits after hitting 2009 peaks on growing economic optimism, and Frankfurt headed for an early finish for the New Year holiday.
.....

In late morning European deals, London's benchmark FTSE 100 index fell 0.34 percent to 5,419.44 points, the Paris CAC 40 slid 0.53 percent to 3,938.96 points and Frankfurt's DAX 30 shed 0.75 percent to reach 5,966.63 points.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of top eurozone shares handed back 0.67 percent to 2,972.08.
.....

Frankfurt will close at 1300 GMT on Wednesday, while London and Paris will shut early on Thursday for festivities. All three stock markets will reopen for business on Monday, January 4, 2010.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gI2QiDXtvWEDxEW0M-cng61kGC-w

[ozymandius]

8. Decade’s Worst Funds Never Recovered From Technology-Stock Bust

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock mutual funds with the biggest losses in the past 10 years, a list topped by Fidelity Growth Strategies and Vanguard U.S. Growth, were crushed by the market sell-off at the start of the decade and never recovered.

The Fidelity fund fell 67 percent and Vanguard’s lost 50 percent, according to data from Morningstar Inc. The 10 worst- performing diversified funds that still manage at least $1 billion tumbled an average of 43 percent in the decade through Dec. 28, about five times the decline of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for the biggest U.S. stocks.

The group’s performance underscores the lasting damage from the March 2000 to October 2002 bear market that followed the collapse of Internet stocks. Fidelity Growth Strategies, which oversees $1.93 billion, hadn’t recouped the 86 percent loss incurred during the technology bust when stocks started falling again in October 2007 amid the onset of the housing crisis.
.....

The 10 worst funds all focused on shares of growth companies, so designated because their sales or earnings are rising faster than their industry’s or the overall market. The group fell 71 percent on average after the technology bubble deflated. That compared with the 47 percent decline by the S&P 500 index from March 24, 2000, to Oct. 9, 2002.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXTiq5Rnr0wg&pos=6

---

I owned shares in Vanguard starting about thirteen years ago. It was a losing proposition over the five years I owned pieces of these funds. So this sad assessment comes with little surprise.

[ozymandius]

9. IMF: Riskier Lenders Spent More Lobbying

From Ritholtz:

The IMF’s latest working paper — A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis — is yet another indictment of the nexus between Wall Street and Washington.

We know from previous reports that the lobbying of most aggressive, freest spending banks led to the greatest return in bailout monies. The IMF shows that it also led to riskier lending with less supervision and regulation:

“Our analysis establishes that financial intermediaries’ lobbying activities on specific issues are significantly related to both their mortgage lending behavior and their ex-post performance. Controlling for unobserved lender and area characteristics as well as changes over time in the macroeconomic and local conditions, lenders that lobby more intensively (i) originate mortgages with higher loan-to-income ratios, (ii) securitize a faster growing proportion of loans originated; and (iii) have faster growing mortgage loan portfolios.”

Our analysis of ex-post performance comprises two pieces of evidence: (i) faster relative growth of mortgage loans by lobbying lenders is associated with higher ex-post default rates at the MSA level in 2008; and (ii) lobbying lenders experienced negative abnormal stock returns during the main events of the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008.”

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/imf-riskier-lenders-spent-more-lobbying/

---

A bit more: Here's what they wanted from our Congresscritters:

• prevent any tightening of lending laws that reduce the benefits of short-termist strategies over long-term profits;

• to thwart bills aimed at lax lending standards and riskier loans;

• to tighten regulations that restrict entry by others preventing competition;

• to have a higher probability of receiving preferential treatment in a crisis.

more at link...

[ozymandius]

13. The Cash Committee: How Wall Street Wins On The Hill

....
In the fall of 2008, Democrats took the White House and expanded their Congressional majorities as America struggled through a financial collapse wrought by years of deregulation. The public was furious. It seemed as if the banks and institutions that dragged the economy to the brink of disaster -- and were subsequently rescued by taxpayer funds -- would finally be forced to change their ways.

But it's not happening. Financial regulation's long slog through Congress has left it riddled with loopholes, carved out at the request of the same industries that caused the mess in the first place. An outraged American public is proving no match for the mix of corporate money and influence that has been marshaled on behalf of the financial sector.

The banking committee is the second-largest in Congress -- the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has three more members -- and is known as a "money committee" because joining it makes fundraising, especially from donors with financial interests litigated by the panel, significantly easier.
....

According to a HuffPost analysis of the 243 people who've worked on the committee -- including clerical and technology staff -- since 2000, almost half of the 126 people who have left registered as lobbyists, mostly for the financial services industry.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/29/the-cash-committee-how-wa_n_402373.html

[Demeter]

25. Not yet, Maybe

But within 2 years, if not 2 months, there will be another financial panic and collapse, and it will happen then.

What cannot continue, will not.

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.983 Change +0.152 (+0.20%)

US Dollar Moves Modestly Higher Despite Mediocre Consumer Confidence Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2009-12-29-2301-US_Dollar_Moves_Modestly_Higher.html

The US Dollar finished modestly higher against the Euro, British Pound, and other major forex counterparts despite relatively mediocre economic data releases. The US Conference Board announced that Consumer Confidence saw a modest increase through the month of December, but an upward revision to November data meant that the improvement was smaller than expected. Likewise significant, the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index fell slightly more than the consensus forecast despite a similar revision to previous data. All in all the day’s US economic data was hardly groundbreaking; the Case Shiller numbers showed that home prices remained relatively stable through October but remain down significantly on a year-over-year basis. Consumer Confidence numbers likewise largely confirmed what we already know: consumers remain very pessimistic about job and earnings prospects. Such relatively mediocre revelations hardly inspire confidence in a substantial economic recovery, but they are nonetheless early signs that the US is recovering from its worst recession since World War II.

The US Dollar rallied on the day seemingly on stop orders hunting through illiquid market conditions. As we have said and will continue to claim, traders should exercise great caution when trading through illiquid year-end periods. Price movements are even more unpredictable than usual and we can see seemingly inexplicable volatility at a moment’s notice. Tomorrow’s US economic calendar is essentially empty except for a rarely market-moving Chicago Purchasing Managers Index report. Further fireworks may come on Wednesday’s Initial Jobless Claims figures, which will shed further light on the state of the US labor market.

...more...

Oil May Stumble as Gold Finds Support on US PMI Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2009-12-30-1038-Oil_May_Stumble_as_Gold.html

Oil may stumble ahead of the $80 barrier while gold and silver find near-term support as US Chicago PMI figures show a decline in December.

Commodities – Energy
Oil Prices May Stumble on Chicago PMI, Inventory Data

Crude Oil (WTI)       $78.96       +$0.09       +0.11%

Oil prices look to have taken out resistance at $79.04, though the break is rather shallow and the grind higher to test the psychologically significant barrier at $80 may be a slow one. Expectations of a decline in December’s Chicago PMI may also complicate the push higher, forcing a pullback (albeit a shallow one) in the recent surge of upbeat sentiment about the US economic recovery. A relatively small decline in the Department of Energy’s weekly crude inventory gauge may also prove to be a hurdle.



Commodities – Metals
Gold, Silver May Find Support in Disappointing US Data

Gold       $1092.25       -$4.59       -0.42%

Gold has continued to inch lower after testing resistance at the top of a falling channel that has guided spot rates lower for most of the current month. Continued bearish momentum targets support at $1082.48. The metal retains a strong inverse correlation with the outlook for US monetary policy (as expressed by the spread between Dec’2010 and Mar’2010 fed funds futures), forcing losses on steadily improving US data. This relationship may start to offer prices a bit of support with Chicago PMI set to decline for the first in three months in December.

Silver       $17.00       -$0.09        -0.56%

Prices have moved aggressively lower and are set to test the bottom of a falling channel established earlier this month (now at $16.85). As with gold, a significant inverse correlation with the 2010 fed funds futures spread hints that a bit of support may be seen at this juncture in the near term as Chicago PMI figures cross the wires.



...more...

[Festivito]

14. Debt: 12/28/2009 12,104,441,214,373.68 (UP 3,168,595,414.59) (Mon)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,734,615,628,917.72 + 4,369,825,585,455.96
UP 88,095,190.64 + UP 3,080,500,223.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,323,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,258.96.
A family of three owes $117,776.87. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,561,468,178.91.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,193,027,725.24.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,090,026,830.88.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 60 reports in 89 days of FY2010 averaging 3.24B$ per report, 2.19B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,119 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/28/2009 12,104,441,214,373.68 BHO (UP 1,477,564,165,460.60 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,194,612,210,861.90 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,798,128,729,939.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/07/2009 -000,125,073,651.86 --- Mon
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon

24,703,728,948.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4202257&mesg_id=4202350

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 12/29/2009 12,100,218,479,276.16 (DOWN 4,222,735,097.52) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,719,580,903,990.08 + 4,380,637,575,286.08
DOWN 15,034,724,927.64 + UP 10,811,989,830.12

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,331,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,244.16.
A family of three owes $117,732.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,162,186,211.80.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,052,269,888.66.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,861,503,020.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 61 reports in 90 days of FY2010 averaging 3.12B$ per report, 2.12B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,118 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/29/2009 12,100,218,479,276.16 BHO (UP 1,473,341,430,363.08 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,190,389,475,764.40 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,772,135,096,155.62 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -

9,794,077,673.18 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4203683&mesg_id=4203722

[ozymandius]

15. time to depart

I hope you folks have an easy day. I will check back upon my return late this afternoon.

:hi:

[Robbien]

18. Chinese firm says won't pay Goldman on options losses

(Reuters) - A small Chinese power generator on Tuesday rejected demands from a Goldman Sachs unit to pay for nearly $80 million lost on two oil hedging contracts, part of a long-running dispute over how China deals with derivatives losses.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) was one of the foreign banks, along with Citigroup (C.N), Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), blamed by the state assets watchdog for providing "extremely complicated" and difficult to understand derivatives products.

Shenzhen Nanshan Power (000037.SZ) (200037.SZ) said in a statement that it received several notices from J. Aron & Company, a trading subsidiary of Goldman Sachs (GS.N), for at least $79.96 million as compensation for terminating oil option contracts.

"We will not accept the demand by J. Aron for all the losses and related interests," said Nanshan, in line with the stance it took last December.


. . .

LONG-TIME TUSSLE

Many Chinese firms, especially airliners, suffered huge losses from complex oil options trading last year as oil price collapsed to nearly $30 a barrel.

A senior official from SASAC revealed last month that 68 Chinese firms suffered net losses of 11.4 billion yuan ($1.67 billion) by October 2008 on call and put options signed with foreign banks.


http://ow.ly/QMvv

[Demeter]

26. Goldman Flirting With Death

So glad to see them totally out of their weight class here.

[Robbien]

31. Yep. Unlike what they are doing to Japan

JAL put out the word yesterday it would go into bankruptcy because the Japanese government said no more bailouts.

Then early this morning Goldman Etal get the word that:


JAL bankruptcy would cost banks US$7.6b
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific_business/view/1027794/1/.html



Very quickly after that report comes out we hear:

Japan Says Talks Of More Loans To JAL As Share Sinks
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091230-704662.html

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's transport minister said Wednesday that the government is discussing having the state-backed Development Bank of Japan lend more to Japan Airlines Corp. (9205.TO) as it weighs the fate of the troubled airline.

JAL's stock lost almost a quarter of its value earlier on word that it was considering a bankruptcy protection filing among its options.

"We are discussing more" loans to JAL by the Development Bank, transport minister Seiji Maehara told reporters, after meeting other top government officials involved in the JAL issue, including Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan.



-----------------------

[CatholicEdHead]

35. It looks like JAL may sell parts off to US airlines

The airline has said it plans thousands of job cuts and a drastic reduction in routes as part of its efforts to return to profitability.

JAL has been offered financial assistance by both American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, which are competing to take a minority stake in the Japanese carrier, eyeing its coveted Asian landing slots.

Delta already ate up Northwest and picked up their Asian routes, it looks like Delta wants an even bigger stake in the worldwide airline business.

[UpInArms]

27. Goldman won't win this one

:nopity:

[mbperrin]

33. That makes me want to cry.....

TEARS OF JOY!

Sorry, I just cannot warm up to real pirates....

[Ghost Dog]

36. China no floozy for

Western banking cartels.

[Robbien]

20. Yellow Pages moving jobs from St. Pete to India

Idearc Media, the company behind the Verizon Yellow Pages and Superpages.com, will eliminate more than 150 jobs in St. Petersburg as it shifts some phone directory work to an India-based outsourcing company.

Those losing their jobs are back-office workers who enter advertising data into the computer, create advertising graphics and lay out the phone directory.

Idearc currently employs about 245 people in its phone directory publishing division in St. Petersburg. The company will keep about 90 of those workers in St. Petersburg, but lay off the rest as it shifts work to Tata Consultancy Services of Mumbai.

. . .

Not yet a household name, Idearc Media was created when Verizon spun off its phone directory business in 2006. Idearc still has more than $9 billion of debt on its books from the spin-off.

The company filed for Chapter 11 protection in Dallas in March and hopes to shed much of the debt in the bankruptcy process.

The company hopes to exit bankruptcy protection soon, Shane said.

"This outsourcing is part of an overall company initiative to become a more efficient company," Shane said in an e-mail.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/dec/30/yellow-pages-moving-jobs-st-pete-india

[Tansy_Gold]

21. I wonder what kind of bankruptcy protection those 150 laid off

employees can expect?


:sarcasm:



I think we need to petition DU for a new smiley icon, a smaller version of the graphic Demeter posted yesterday. And the script would be :frsp:



Tansy Gold, with lots of work and no motivation

[Demeter]

28. It COULD Go Viral

Little self-adhesive stickers to put on advertising and corporate buildings, return mail (like bill payments and dunning notices) etc. etc.

Tansy, we ought to go into marketing it. Anonymously, of course. Could be interpreted by the chickens as a threat. Make a terrible court case.

[Demeter]

29. 2010: "The Year of Severe Economic Contraction" By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24174.htm

Upbeat reports in the financial media belie the effects of the ongoing credit contraction. Massive injections of central bank liquidity have prevented the collapse of financial markets, but have done nothing to ease the deleveraging of households or stimulate activity the broader economy. The crisis has stripped $13 trillion in equity from working families who now find their access to credit either cut off or severely curtailed by the same banks that received hefty taxpayer-funded bailouts. The fiscal strangulation of the millions of people who are no longer considered "creditworthy" is progressively weakening demand and spreading pessimism across all income levels. Growing public desperation was the focus of a special weekend report by Bloomberg News:

"Americans have grown gloomier about both the economy and the nation’s direction over the past three months even as the U.S. shows signs of moving from recession to recovery. Almost half the people now feel less financially secure than when President Barack Obama took office in January, a Bloomberg National Poll shows.

The economy is the country’s top concern, with persistently high unemployment the greatest threat the public sees. Eight of 10 Americans rate joblessness a high risk to the economy in the next two years, outranking the federal budget deficit, which is cited by 7 of 10. An increase in taxes is named as a high risk by almost 6 of 10.

Fewer than 1 in 3 Americans think the economy will improve in the next six months....Only 32 percent of poll respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 40 percent who said so in September." (Bloomberg)

The near-delirious optimism that followed the 2008 presidential election has fizzled in less than 12 months. While the policies of the Obama administration have improved Wall Street's prospects for record profits and lavish bonuses, ordinary working people continue to fight to keep their jobs and maintain their standard of living. Recent data show that household debt which surged during the boom years is being pared back at a historic pace. Household debt to disposable income has plummeted from 136 percent to 122 percent in a little more than a year, leaving many families with little to spend at the malls or shopping centers.

Severe retrenchment has triggered a shift towards personal thriftiness which is reducing economic activity and strengthening deflationary pressures. 2010 is likely to be even worse, as mushrooming foreclosures and commercial real estate defaults force banks to slash lending accelerating the rate of decline. This is from Bloomberg:

"Foreclosure filings in the U.S. will reach a record for the second consecutive year with 3.9 million notices sent to homeowners in default, RealtyTrac Inc. said. This year’s filings will surpass 2008’s total of 3.2 million as record unemployment and price erosion batter the housing market...

Foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 for the ninth straight month in November, RealtyTrac said today. A weak labor market and tight credit are “formidable headwinds” for the economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a Dec. 7 speech in Washington. The 7.2 million jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 are the most of any postwar economic slump, Labor Department data show. Unemployment, at 10 percent last month, won’t peak until the first quarter, Quigley said." (Bloomberg)

The Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus pushed GDP into positive territory for the first time in more than a year, but the maximum impact has already been felt. President Obama--under advice from his chief advisors-- has shifted his focus from soaring unemployment to long-term deficits. Additional stimulus will be no more than $200 billion, of which, a mere $50 billion will go towards jobs initiatives. At the same time, Fed chair Ben Bernanke will terminate the quantitative easing (QE) program which kept long-term interest rates low while providing financing for the housing market. When the program ends, rates will rise, housing prices will tumble, and liquidity will drain from the system. The end of QE coupled with dwindling stimulus ensures that economy will slide back into recession in the 2nd or 3rd Quarter of 2010.

Policymakers have decided to create conditions that are favorable to financial sector consolidation and the further privatization of public assets. The economy is being strangled by design.

Here's economist Mark Thoma explaining why consumption will not return to pre-crisis levels:

"For the immediate future and likely for much longer than that, slow consumption growth is expected. One way that could change is if the government implements a successful jobs program or uses some other means to increase household income (e.g. a payroll tax cut), and households spend rather than save the extra income..., but the political environment makes a jobs program or further fiscal policy action highly unlikely.

Similarly...the Fed is anxious to unwind its massive policy intervention, not extend it, so monetary policy is unlikely to help much either. Since monetary and fiscal policy authorities are unwilling to provide further help, slow growth is the best outcome we’re likely to get." ("Will Consumption Growth Return to Its Pre-Recession Level?" Mark Thoma, moneywatch.com)

Along with flagging consumption, economists Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov show why both investment and employment will not rebound in the way that many bullish analysts expect. By tracking the rate of recovery in the last 5 recessions, the two economists show that demand will remain flat for a prolonged period of time, precipitating a "jobless" and "investment-less" recovery. Their research supports additional stimulus to reduce the output gap and engage the labor force in productive activity. The administration's policies are the exact opposite of what the majority of professional economists recommend, who believe that deficits need to increase to effect overcapacity and underutilization. Obama is deliberately steering the economy into a double-dip recession.

While financial institutions have been propped up with zero-rates, myriad lending facilities and boatloads of Fed liquidity, the real economy continues to on a downward path. As households rebalance accounts and increase savings, the signs of distress are becoming more apparent. In Europe, the ECB and IMF have begun to use the financial crisis to wrest control of the budgets of deficits-plagued nations to apply business-friendly austerity measures. The economic meltdown--that was generated by overleveraged banks trading dodgy investment paper--is now being used to assert corporate/bank control over sovereign nations. Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Spain are all presently in the crosshairs of neoliberal restructuring. Surely, the same policies will be applied within the United States under the guidance of supply-side economist and chief advisor to the president, Lawrence Summers. Thus, in 2010, economic contraction will continue to force state and local governmnets to lay off millions of more workers while public assets and services are made available at firesale prices to private industry.

Debt deflation and deleveraging will continue into 2011, while foreclosures, personal bankruptcies and defaults continue to mount. The public's frustration with ineffective government policies, is likely to change from pessimism to rage on short notice. The prospect of social unrest or sporadic incidents of violence can no longer be excluded.

I'LL GET RIGHT ON THAT STICKER IDEA.

[Ghost Dog]

37. Global tinderbox

2010 could be a year that sparks unrest

IF THE world appears to have escaped relatively unscathed by social unrest in 2009, despite suffering the worst recession since the 1930s, it might just prove the lull before the storm. Despite a tentative global recovery, for many people around the world economic and social conditions will continue to deteriorate in 2010. An estimated 60m people worldwide will lose their jobs. ... But poverty alone does not spark unrest — exaggerated income inequalities, poor governance, lack of social provision and ethnic tensions are all elements of the brew that foments unrest.

/... http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15098974

Moody’s warns of 'social unrest’ as sovereign debt spirals

In a sombre report on the outlook for next year, the credit rating agency raised the prospect that future tax rises and spending cuts could trigger social unrest in a range of countries from the developing to the developed world.

It said that in the coming years, evidence of social unrest and public tension may become just as important signs of whether a country will be able to adapt as traditional economic metrics. Signalling that a fiscal crisis remains a possibility for a leading economy, it said that 2010 would be a “tumultuous year for sovereign debt issuers”.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6819470/Moodys-warns-of-social-unrest-as-sovereign-debt-spirals.html

[CatholicEdHead]

41. It sounds like an Global Jubilee year is in order

[Robbien]

30. Vion Pharm. Files Bankruptcy After FDA Rejects Drug--- Vion insists drug testing is too costly

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Vion Pharmaceuticals Inc. filed for bankruptcy after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said it wouldn’t approve the drug developer’s application for the Onrigin anti-cancer injection in its present form.

“We believe the Chapter 11 process will allow us to maximize the value of the company’s assets and, if necessary, to conduct an orderly winding up or liquidation of the company,” Alan Kessman, Vion’s chief executive officer, said yesterday in a statement.

The FDA told the company it wouldn’t approve its drug application without a “randomized study or studies to define the efficacy and safety of Onrigin in the patient population proposed for the indication,” New Haven, Connecticut-based Vion said in a Dec. 14 statement.

Vion said it doesn’t have enough money to conduct and complete a trial and continue its operations outside of bankruptcy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqQH5oQuogYE


So it appears Vion went to the FDA and demanded their untested drug be approved, if not Vion would declare bankruptcy. What is disturbing is that Vion believed this tactic would work. Perhaps they got the idea from other more influential drug companies who used the same tactic successfully?

[Demeter]

34. Didn't the FDA Do Drug Testing, Once Upon a Time?

I'd rather have the govt. impartially test, than a for-profit, hungry Corp.

[Dr.Phool]

38. Up until recently, the University of Florida did clinical trials for Wyeth.

They used to run ads in the front page section of the Sunday St. Pete Times, looking for test subjects. I participated in one almost 7 years ago. They paid me about $3500 for a 17 night stay, and a couple of follow-up visits.

I haven't seen any ads since Phizer (I think) took them over.

[Robbien]

40. The FDA was staffed with a bunch of people who hate regulation

Loyal Bushies they were called I believe. Under them the FDA shut down most of its labs in 2007.

Most of those loyal Bushies are still there. Obama did not purge them.

Just today there was an article out:

One FDA Director Resigns, Another Reportedly Under Investigation
http://www.attorneyatlaw.com/2009/08/one-fda-director-resigns-another-reportedly-under-investigation/

Big changes this week over at the Food and Drug Administration, where one high-ranking official has resigned amid concerns about approvals he authorized for questionable medical devices while another top official reportedly is under investigation for possible conflicts of interest.

All the internal turmoil may make for interesting water-cooler gossip around the hallways at FDA headquarters, but it’s clearly not news good for an agency that has been blasted with criticism in recent years for bumbling product recalls and new-drug approvals blamed for causing thousands of consumer deaths, illnesses, and injuries.
Schultz Shown the Door

Daniel Schultz, the head of the FDA’s medical device division, said Tuesday that he would be stepping down from the post. The move was said to be “by mutual agreement” with FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg, but we all know how that works: “Listen Dan, we’ll let you resign and won’t fire you, but ya gotta go.”

There’s been smoke coming from smoldering problems within the medical device division under Schultz for months. Earlier this year, nine experts told President Barack Obama that they had real serious concerns about medical devices that were rammed through the FDA approvals process despite concerns about their effectiveness and safety.

The scientists said they felt compelled by the FDA to vote in favor of approving the devices, even though they worried about the risks. National lawmakers are now looking into the accusations of wrongdoing by Schultz’s unit.

------------------------

Bush and his gang did a great job at destroying the creditability of the government. Obama is doing less than nothing to fix it. Any time an old Bushie leaves, Obama appoints a lobbyist in his place.

So, no I do agree with you that the FDA could do an impartial test rather than a for-profit hungry Corp. Both options stink these days.

[kickysnana]

42. I have to keep reminding my doctors I would rather not take anything approved after 1993. n/t