STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY JULY 30.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday July 30, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 541
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 260
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 232 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 290 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 132
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 616
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 29, 2003

Dow 9,204.46 -62.05 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,731.37 -3.99 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 989.28 -7.24 (-0.73%)
10-Year Bond 4.40% +0.11 (+2.66%)
Gold future...... 360.00 -3.60 (-0.99%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Wall Street Message Discipline

Ever since long-term interest rates began to rise a month ago, the Wall Street message discipline has been pounding out the consistent mantra that a steepening yield curve reflects bullish ideas for an economic recovery. A Bloomberg news article yesterday stated that, “Government notes have tumbled, with 10-year notes coming off their biggest two-week price decline since November 2001, amid signs the economy is strengthening. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields expanded to the widest since at least 1977 as investors said low interest rates would lead to a recovery*, as well as accelerating inflation.” It all sounds good, but at the end of the day we find that both stock and bond prices have declined. In today’s market the Dow Industrials fell 62 points to close at 9,204, the S&P 500 dropped seven points to close at 989 and the NASDAQ Composite finished slightly down by three points for a close of 1,731.

Wall Street is trying to tell the world that the sell-off in U.S. Treasury debt, which forces interest rates higher, is signaling that an economic recovery is imminent, and the bond market is pricing-in the inflation that would accompany accelerating growth rates. In the first half of this year the U.S. economy has been growing at an average rate of 1.7%, but economists are forecasting 3.5% growth for the current quarter and 3.7% in the fourth quarter. It sure doesn’t feel like we are growing at double the rate of just a few months ago.

Consumers Don’t Confirm Economic Optimism

Higher interest rates are not giving the U.S. consumer a warm-fuzzy about the pending recovery. Today the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June, while expectations were calling for an increase to 85.0. Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, and without the consumer we will have no recovery. We can get a flash in the pan here and there, but we will not see strong sustainable growth until the employment picture gets better. In fact, today’s Consumer Confidence Report showed that the assessments of the job market fell to the weakest levels in almost a decade.

Companies continue to generate marginal earnings based primarily on cost cutting (call that worker layoffs) rather than by increasing their top line sales.

*emphasis added by author

much more

[area51]

25. I've heard this before.

Mike Hartman said:

"Wall Street is trying to tell the world that the sell-off in U.S. Treasury debt, which forces interest rates higher, is signaling that an economic recovery is imminent ...."

John Snowjob said:

"`This economy is poised to take off. It's spring-loaded to go,' Snow said during a CNBC interview on a bus tour of Wisconsin and Minnesota ...."

Herbert Hoover & George W. Hoover:

"Prosperity is just around the corner."

[ozymandius]

2. Stocks Seen Edging Up in a Quiet Session

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to rise slightly at the open on Wednesday as investors pore over more corporate earnings reports and look for direction on the economy after a modest sell-off in the previous session.

Investors will also be watching for the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a summary of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts for June expected at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT). Also, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index on the current state of U.S. economic activity and inflationary pressures for June is expected at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).

story

[ozymandius]

3. Before the Bell: AOL Shares Drop

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of AOL Time Warner Inc. AOL.N slipped before the open on Wednesday after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission asked its unit America Online to hand over documents relating to its bulk Internet subscription plans.

teeny story

[ozymandius]

4. UPDATE 1-Higher U.S. rates erode demand for mortgages

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters) - A rise in interest rates dampened demand for home mortgage refinancings and loans for home purchases last week, an industry survey reported on Wednesday.

The drop in demand diminishes the key support that housing has provided the U.S. economy in recent years.

story

[ozymandius]

5. July Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply

NEW YORK - Consumer confidence took an unexpected tumble in July, rattled by a jump in unemployment to a 9-year high. That could mean a longer road to economic recovery if consumers allow their shaken feelings to curtail their spending — a key driver of economic growth.

The Consumer Confidence Index (news - web sites) fell to 76.6 in July, nearly a seven-point drop from 83.5 in June, the New York-based business industry group said Tuesday. Analysts had expected a 1.5 percentage point increase.

The decline in July was the largest decrease since February, when confidence dropped 14 points to 64.8 as consumers were bracing for a conflict in Iraq (news - web sites).

story

[jamesinca]

7. Ozzy, let me ask you this

Your opinion based on your three post about AOL, consumer confidence and the housing market: Where do you think the market will go today? How much of a factor when the earnings reports are considered? This is an opinion piece,so there is no wrong answer here.

[ozymandius]

10. my opinion

(Remember: my opinion and $1.75 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.)

I expect the markets to be looking over their shoulder all day today. Mixed economic data combined with the some embarrassment over yesterday's mini-rally (spurred by the rumor that Saddam Hussein had been captured) will result in market sheepishness. The market has four things working against its progress. First, the consumer confidence falling sharply was a surprise. When consumer confidence takes a hit in the midst of the major tourist and entertainment season, that is something ugly to behold.

Second, mortgage rates are on the rise. The housing market has done a mighty job in propping up weak economic news. If this pillar is perceived to have cracks, then the speculation over its impact on the economy may be worse than the reality, resulting in the markets becoming afraid of its own shadow.

Third, energy prices are rising. When Alan Greenspan is worried over "deflation" many think he is concerned about the cost of a DVD player and like items. Not so. He is worried about the loss of monetary earnings - such as the long-term value of money market funds and CDs. Deflation, in this sense, has no impact on the cost of oil and natural gas.

Fourth, the rationalization that job losses have lead to corporate profits, rather than sales, has begun to sink in. Any wonder why consumer confidence is so low?

The good stuff: Durable goods sales rose. This is not a surprise given that the early part of this year saw a record number of new home starts and existing home purchases. The latest news says that new home sales were up and existing home sales were down. New homes require many items listed as "durable goods" like washers, dryers and water heaters.

As for AOL - I do not think that will have any impact on the market other than put a tiny dent in the Dow. AOL has had trouble with it Internet subscription service for nearly two years because of the proliferation of broadband service providers. The SEC investigation has been on-going for over a year. Any news about the investigation will always scare away thin-skinned investors.

So my prognosis: gains today will be modest, if there are any at all. I would not be surprised of there were a slight drop across the three major indeces, IMHO.

[jamesinca]

14. I got the $1.75 so I guess I will go to SB now, thanks

Thanks for the reply.

[ozymandius]

6. Treasury Sec, Sees Recovery Coming Soon (laugh redux)

MILWAUKEE (Reuters) - As protesters lamented the dismal job market and data showed a plunge in consumer confidence, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday said he saw an economy on the brink of a much faster recovery.

"This economy is poised to take off. It's spring-loaded to go," Snow said during a CNBC interview on a bus tour of Wisconsin and Minnesota with Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao.

"I think in the months ahead, you're going to see growth rates in GDP (news - web sites) (gross domestic product) for the American economy rising significantly. We're looking at well over 3 percent for the third quarter, 3-1/2 (percent) for the fourth quarter and over 4 percent for next year," Snow said.

more laughs

[ze_dscherman]

8. Spring-loaded

How come an old-fashioned mouse-trap comes to my mind?
Ah, the vision becomes clearer - it's a lemming-trap!

[Maeve]

9. Snow job!

Ah, the richness of puns we are beig given!

No reports expected until tomorrow, but that won't stop the spinmeisters...re-financing is down by a third and that could signal a major decline in the support consumers have given the economy but Snow is doing a medley of show tunes--"The Sun'll Come up Tomorrow", "Everything's Coming Up Roses" and "We're in the Money!"
:hangover:

I won't be around much the rest of the week--y'all have fun without me!

[ozymandius]

11. S'long Maeve. We'll miss you.

When do you land on Irish soil? I'll bet you'll be visiting Connacht, right?

[Maeve]

12. Ah, no , I don't fly out until the 13th

You can see where I'll be this weekend at this website http://www.dublinirishfestival.org/

And yes, I'll be staying most of my time outside Galway and traveling the west of Ireland when I go! and speaking of going---markets are open!

[Maeve]

13. After the opening bell, starting up!

Dow 9,236.47 +32.01 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,733.26 +1.89 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 992.62 +3.34 (+0.34%)

[ozymandius]

15. tempering just a bit at 9:53

DJIA 9,213.99 9.53 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 1,727.08 -4.29 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 990.21 0.93 (0.09%)

[ozymandius]

16. 10:04 and all red

DJIA 9,192.00 -12.46 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ 1,720.89 -10.48 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 987.86 -1.42 (-0.14%)

[ozymandius]

17. Stocks Open Flat; Beige Book Data Awaited

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks opened flat on Wednesday as investors sifted through more corporate earnings reports and looked for direction on the economy after a modest sell-off in the previous session.

Investors will be watching for the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a summary of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts for June expected at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT). Also, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index on the current state of U.S. economic activity and inflationary pressures for June is expected at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT).

short story

[ozymandius]

18. 10:25 and playing with positive territory

DJIA 9,209.85 5.39 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 1,725.46 -5.91 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 989.55 0.27 (+0.03%)

[Coventina]

19. The "I Ching" on today's market

Today's reading showed PROSPERING changing to ADVANCEMENT!
Ching is in a good mood today! Here is a little quip, "Actions that you might take, particularly those actions that are connected to the welfare of others, will meet with good fortune. You will attract others and find co-operation among those who have goals similar to your own."

Well, it looks like it should be a positive day for the markets, and I'm hoping for a positive day for the resistance as well!
:-)

on edit: spelling :dunce:

[revcarol]

20. See any "pie-hole" effect yet?

Evidently *Bush's press conference is just going swimmingly...
<sarcasm>

[ozymandius]

21. I see his pie hole effect.

11:46

DJIA 9,186.96 -17.50 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ 1,721.52 -9.85 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 987.72 -1.56 (-0.16%)

[ozymandius]

22. lunchtime figures

12:04

DJIA 9,193.19 -11.27 (-0.12%)
NASDAQ 1,721.52 -9.85 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 988.69 -0.59 (-0.06%)

[Maeve]

23. Just after 1 and creeping up

Dow 9,203.48 -0.98 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,724.51 -6.86 (-0.40%)
S&P 500 990.13 +0.85 (+0.09%)

drive-by posting....

[Maeve]

24. 1:54 and back under water

Dow 9,191.79 -12.67 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,721.84 -9.53 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 988.80 -0.48 (-0.05%)

[radfringe]

26. Hi all

Hey Maeve, have a great time in Ireland!

break out the champagne, toss that ticker tape into the air... Bushit and Snowjob are saying that happy days are here again...

It's a job-LOSS recovery and people are starting to figure it out. Talkinghead blather yesterday spoke about the report numbers for July - basically said that if the taxcuts were working then the report number for July should reflect that by now.... we'll know in a few days. Keep your eyes on the manufacturing numbers - this has been the hardest hit and "IF" there is a recovery going on, it will show up in this report.

Heard that AWOl claimed he's tooooo old to answer coplex questions - does this also mean he's toooooo old to run a complex country such as ours and a complex economy such as ours? I say give him his Social Security check and send him to the Crawford Retirement ranch.

Meanwhile, he's finally accepted responsibility for his SOTU speech, didn't mention the uranium claim. Does this mean he's admitted that he lied???? just asking.

Magic 8-BallMuch of the market direction is going to depend on what the July reports say. There will be the usual pump and dump for pennies and propping up of the markets. AWOL knows that the job situation sucks, and that people are concerned about their retirement accounts. The retirement accounts are what he's "banking on" to pull his butt out the fire. If the markets do well,then the retirement accounts should do well too. He'll be calling on the PPT to make sure the markets do well, so look for the numbers to be artificially propped up.

Terra-Terra-Terra and more terra-lerts will be coming our way, the only way AWOL can keep his numbers from falling further is to scare the beeee-jeeeeezus out of everyone. The markets will take a hit and I'm afraid the PPT won't be able to keep things propped up for much longer.

Still seeing a teeter-totter month for August, the excuse for drops in the markets will be that people are on vacation....just wait till the 4th quarter...recovery is around the corner.....the dog ate the memo

[Maeve]

27. Final numbers for the day

The good news is that trading was relatively light. The bad news:

Dow 9,199.98 -4.48 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,721.95 -9.42 (-0.54%)
S&P 500 987.69 -1.59 (-0.16%)

[Coventina]

28. Ching strikes out

Prediction way off.

Well, try again tomorrow, I guess.