STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday December 31, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 30, 2009

Dow... 10,548.51 +3.10 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,291.28 +2.88 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,126.42 +0.23 (+0.02%)
Gold future... 1,092 -6.10 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.79 -0.01 (-0.16%)
30-Year Bond 4.61 -0.03 (-0.60%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman    William Black: This Economic Disaster

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Has it really been this long?

From the DU archives: STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY JULY 7.

the final results (as reported by Julie):

Dow 9,216.79 +146.58 (+1.62%)
Nasdaq 1,721.25 +57.79 (+3.47%)
S&P 500 1,004.50 +18.80 (+1.91%)
10-Yr Bond 3.707% +0.052

This date, July 7, 2003, is the longest reach into the DU archives. The exact date when I took over management of the Stock Market Watch escapes me. So imagine my jarring discovery to see my name as this thread's author at the advent of Democratic Underground Version 2.0. Tempus: it fugits.

As we are set embark on another year, I cannot help but feel sweet camaraderie when remembering the wonderful Marketeers who have left deep footprints here. Those who occasionally find their way back to our remote outpost on the Internet are always warmly embraced. I also greatly appreciate the regulars who have been able to leave space in their lives for ...er... being regular.

*cough* Anyway. There are many more who remain enshrined in the durability and legacy of this thread since its creation when DU was still in its infancy. Thank you for being such good company for so many years.

Happy New Year to all as we come full circle once again.

[Tansy_Gold]

14. Good mornin' to ya, Ozy!

I was here an hour ago but went off to do some other stuff, tryin' to keep warm 'til you opened the doors.

Goodness gracious sakes alive, but that is one gorgeous moon outside! Didn't even need a flashlight to keep track of the dogs.

:hi:



Tansy Gold, very glad she stumbled in here a couple years ago

[ozymandius]

17. Blue Moon

If the skies clear up here in the East we will be treated to the same.

Very glad, too, that you stumbled in here. :hi:

[Demeter]

21. I Couldn't Find the Mice from "Babe", but

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4218R-gBmts

[DemReadingDU]

25. Blue Moon-The Marcels-1961

American Graffiti pictures
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7giOrKYIwpQ


Thanks Ozy, glad I stopped in a few years ago. Best thread on DU!

[tclambert]

91. Thanks for SMW, and thanks for musical links.

Isn't is usually GhostDog who finds the good music? Anyway, I don't post a comment every day, what with work and some days not feeling witty, but I do check the thread every day, if only for the cartoon.

Speaking of which, the Oh-oh's weren't that kind to me, either, Uncle Sam. In 2009, my investments did manage to make a few thousand dollars on paper and a few hundred in real dividends. And that's the only gain I've had in any of the 2000's. 2000 - 2008 were all negative. (I really hate George W. Bush.)

I like that SMW has so many links to so many interesting articles and websites, though I can't read everything. I like the diatribes, even when I don't agree with them. Very often these rants raise the alarm about problems we need to avoid. Even if TheWatcher's predictions don't come true, they serve a valuable purpose. And when they do come true, well, damn, we're in trouble, and somebody should have listened.

Myself, I like the humorous--the cartoons, Tansy's jokes (I really liked the binary one ("There are 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.")), and especially the real life jokes, like when the FBI conducted a massive manhunt for R. Allen Stanford, but then didn't arrest him when they found him. Oh, and when Maurice "Hank" Greenberg sued AIG, the company of which he was CEO for so long. And then HE WON! And of course the whole idea of financial executives getting performance bonuses for the worst financial performance in recorded history. You gotta laugh at that, or build a guillotine.

All this time, I thought FRSP stood for "French Revolution Surprise Party." (It's always better when it comes as a surprise.) I have to admit "Severance Package" has a certain punnish panache to it.

So, what's gonna make money in 2010?

[DemReadingDU]

94. So, what's gonna make money in 2010?

LOL, If I knew that, I'd let everyone on SMW know the answer so we could all be rich!
Hey Happy New Year, Let's party!
:party:

[ozymandius]

98. One guess: banksters.

If I had a Tommy Gun the size of a Manhattan city block I'd be making money, too.

[Demeter]

101. Or Maybe--Lawyers! of Banksters, War Criminals, etc.

The wheels of Justice grind abyssmally slowly, but I have detected some rotation going on, which will only speed up as the momentum builds...

[54anickel]

20. Happy New Year Ozy and all!

:hi: :hug: :grouphug:

[Roland99]

36. And a Happy New Year to you!

:toast:

[DoBotherMe]

81. Happy New Year to SMW Dwellers

one and all! Dana ; )

[Hugin]

45. I guess this'll be the end of the "New Year digit eyeglasses"...

Not that I ever wore a pair. :7

While we're feeling all nostalgic...

I began lurking on DU shortly after the debacle in 2000 and one of my frequent lurkstops was the SMW, but, my most consistent resting spot in those dark and dreary days was the Election Reform Forum. I began to ACTUALLY POST after the twin debacle in 2004 clearly showed that no election reform was in the offing... (Sort of reminds me of HCR. :eyes: )

I was promptly banished to the Lounge for an extended probation after posting copy cat threads and some comments about Anne Coulter in GD. ( :sigh: GD was much more fun back then... It was GD:Politics where the humor impaired stuffed shirts resided. Some things never change...)

Anyway, this is a rather wordy way of saying... Thanks for everything, Marketeers! :D Onward and Upward with the SMW!

[DemReadingDU]

54. Hey, I hung out in Election forum when I first registered

Hugin - we signed up on the same day! Does that makes us DU twins, lol.

Being from Ohio, I knew Bush did not win Ohio in 2004. No way, there had to be election corruption. But then I branched out into the Plame threads with Scooter Libby, and woke up to massive political corruption, that eventually led me to financial corruption.

Thanks to everyone here, I have learned a lot.
:applause:

[Hugin]

57. Twinsies!

Well, if I have a twin I could ask for no better twin. :)

I was so angry at the spinelessness displayed that day... :grr:

[DemReadingDU]

60. I don't recall why I signed up on that day,

It was maybe a week later that I started posting, probably because Keith Olbermann was following the election shenanigans.

And happy bleated registration birthday!
:party:

[Hugin]

61. Yeah!

Happy Registration Day! :bounce:

:party:

[snot]

75. Thanks to you and everyone else here

for filling this thread with useful information, common sense, and good humor every day!

[Demeter]

2. Good Morning and Happy New Year, Ozy!

[ozymandius]

5. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
And a Happy New Year to you as well!

[Demeter]

9. Thanks, but go easy on those coffee and donuts!

I've got a New Year's Resolution to keep!

[ozymandius]

3. Market Observation

2010: A Good Year for the Economy and a Mediocre Year for Stocks?
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The stock market has historically acted as a discounting mechanism in which stock prices reflect future fundamental data, typically with a six month lead time. This was exactly the case this year as the stock market bottomed in March while the economy looked as though it couldn’t possibly get any worse. The stock market rightly predicted improving economic conditions in which the US economy wasn’t losing more than half a million jobs each month as it was earlier in the year. The economy went from losing 741,000 jobs in January to losing 11,000 jobs in November, quite the turnaround. Real GDP also improved in which it declined by a -6.43% annualized rate in the first quarter to showing +2.24% growth in the third quarter. Easy year-over-year comparisons for economic stats and corporate earnings all but ensures positive growth rates ahead that will show improvement in the economy as we enter 2010, but the question concerning investors is how the stock market will react. Will a positive growth picture for the economy translate into higher stock prices?
.....

In order to determine if 2010 will be like 2002 or 2004, watching leading economic indicators as well as other key economic stats will prove crucial. They should help in determining if the stock market can advance (2004) or will resume another leg down (2002) as the overall backdrop for the stock market is a secular bear market that remains in place since beginning in 2000. The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Leading Economic Index’s (LEI) growth rate began to stall in the second half of 2003 and fell back to a neutral reading by the end of 2004 and served as an early warning for the character of the stock market in 2004. The S&P 500 reflected the deceleration in the ECRI LEI in which it spent most of 2004 in a gradual decline of nearly 10% after peaking in March of 2004. Currently the LEI is off its peak as its growth rate has cooled from a high of 28% in October to 24.4% in the middle of December. If the LEI continues to stall or decelerate it could be foreshadowing a rough first half in 2010 for the stock market.

What also preceded the rough start to 2004 was that the money supply (M2) growth also began to decelerate, though the bottom in the stock market in the fall of 2004 coincided with a large spike in the money supply’s growth rate. The March bottom of 2009 was preceded by a large pick up in the M2 growth rate that occurred in 2008 and the significant deceleration in M2 that has occurred this year corroborates the trend in the LEI and confirms that money supply will not be as supportive to stock prices in 2010 as it was in 2009. The M2 money supply will be monitored closely as a reacceleration in the growth rate may indicate a market bottom/further advance while continued contraction will likely prove bearish for the stock market.
.....

Another recession in the not too distant future is a clear possibility as the unemployment rate stays stubbornly high. Businesses have begun to ease up on firing workers but hiring is a whole other story. According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) that measures small business activity, small businesses are in no rush to begin hiring. According to the NFIB survey, the net percent of firms planning on increasing employment is still negative as firms overall are still laying off workers. A poor employment backdrop is the culprit behind prolonged period of unemployment, with the average duration of unemployment recently setting an all-time record of nearly 25 weeks. If the recovery is going to be anything other than a pure statistical recovery small businesses need to start hiring or we will continue to see elevated unemployment insurance payments and food stamp payments eat away at state and federal coffers, likely leading to new extension packages from the White House to replenish them.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Tansy_Gold]

19. How about "2010: A really good year for the economy, but

a lousy year for the markets, as profits for the investor class take a nosedive while good-paying jobs return for the middle and working classes."

Yeah, I know, in my dreams.




TG

[Demeter]

23. I'll Drink to That!

[ozymandius]

26. The Eternal Question

I enjoy reading Duncan Black's (a.k.a. Atrios) sharp remarks about such things. So, giving full credit to him, this question comes to mind: How does this forecast for improvement equate to increased wages? To my mind, this and increased employment are the only improvements that really matter at this point.

[Tansy_Gold]

29. Exactly

And what bothers me, especially when I venture out into the hinterlands of DU -- like GD and GD-P :scared: -- is that some of them really don't (seem to) understand the nature of weealth creation. Or maybe they do and they don't care.

But when I read a DUer posting that it's okay for a hedge fund manager or a trader or whatever to "make" billions of dollars a year and justify their support of that kind of "earning" because we shouldn't be against people getting rich, I have to wonder if DUers like that understand where that money came from. I mean, it's not like that hedge fund manager went out and actually created anything that anyone uses -- he took the "profits" from a zillion people who were actually working and creating wealth. He fucking stole it, because in most cases the workers have no control over the economy, even their own micro-economy. The money was stolen from their 401(k) because the mutual fund manager or whoever was on the losing side of the bet.

That's not an economy. That's a casino.

And I don't think "they" get it.

And of course the majority of the American people don't have a clue.

Speaking of which, I need to get back to my little day job and bring in enough to keep the dog food flowing. . . .


TG

[Loge23]

87. A New Year's Marxism re: Wealth "creation"

Somewhere in television land, Groucho and the lads are in the midst of mayhem.
So Karl will have to do:
"Capital is dead labor, which vampire-like, lives only by sucking living labor, and lives the more, the more labor it sucks."

Of course, the majority of American people probably don't get this preferring instead to shed their (our) liberties and rights in pursuit of airline travel. But that's another topic.

Groucho? There you are! You have anything to say?
"I read in the newspapers that they are going to have 30 minutes of intellectual stuff on television every Monday from 7:30 to 8 to educate America. They couldn't educate America if they started at 6:30."

Well, OK then!

...with appreciation and Best New Year's Wishes to the SMW crowd - and TG!

[Tansy_Gold]

90. We were not even allowed to learn about (the other) Marx

The given -- in the 1960s -- was that communism/socialism/Marxism was evil and we would be contaminated if we so much as discussed it. We were expected to be content with the glories of capitalism, free markets, democracy, etc. as if they were all one and the same.

Even today, here on DU, there are so many who cannot grasp the fundamentals.

So every once in a while, when I have time, I search out interesting tidbits, for my own edification and to share through the miracle of SMW.


For today's enjoyment,

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090720/grandin/single



With that, I wish you all a Happy 2010!



Tansy Gold, by any other name

[Grinchie]

88. Very good points.. The majority of people don't see the Vultures.

This whole Casino is designed to inexorably take the fruits of labor and buy it for pennies on the dollar when the sustaining force of that labor dries up. After falling victim to that scenario when the Dot Com bubble destroyed millions of good jobs almost overnight, it became clear that it's all part of the system. The safety net is a Hollywood marketing slogan, and it really does not exist in any meaningful sense, except for just prolonging the process while the vultures feed on the choicest bits of your lifetime of labor.

Even though it was a painful lesson to endure at the time, it opened my eyes to the pervasive Propaganda and lies that are spoon fed to the gullible Americans that have been trained like Pavlov's dog to accept high debt as the normal way of doing business, despite the fact that they are one step away from another Dot Com bust to realize that there is no safety net, and the Vultures are now hungry for their wealth too.

I see the same false images of "Success" being trumpeted about, despite the fact that the version they promote is unsustainable in the long run, ready to fall victim to the next manipulation of the economy. Unfortunately, the "Success" is only superficial, and people are so self centered that the idea of saving their capital for a rainy day is like poison to them. This leads to overexploitation of whatever resources they may have, increased debtload and the necessity of working like a slave for Dollars instead of wealth. They are walking into a Big Bear trap, but as long as they feel that they fit the description of the Hollywood image of success, they are oblivious that they are working 18 hour days, and constantly need to increase cash flow only to see it disappear on DodDads, external inputs and decreased free time to actually review the situation and correct mistakes.

I'm convinced that it is all by design, especially since good planning, a measured, leisurely approach, and the ability to move at a pace that is comfortable when developing and enterprise are looked upon as some sort of "Alternative Lifestyle". Well, all I have to say is that my "Alternative Lifestyle" is a carbon copy of the old way of doing business, when productivity was dictated by labor and not the amount of money you could get out of a loan.

I like being able to decide what I accomplish on a day to day basis. Some days it rains, Some days I have blisters that I need to heal, other days I need to to desk work and review the fundamentals . This is real wealth, not the slavish devotion to someone else for a weekly paycheck so you won't get thrown out of your living quarters.

Another aspect is that I don't have to depend on my crops for money, because the basic ability to produce a years supply of food for me is reward enough, but being able to feed 300 families for a years is an added benefit. I don't have to produce that much, but it comes freely to me because I can use more sustainable methods to produce it. I don't need Fertilizer, Tractors, Pesticides or Herbicides at all, since I don't have to wring excessive production out of my farm, which causes rapid depletion and is unsustainable.

The generally accepted agricultural methods in place in America today are wholly dependant on external inputs, and even the Organic Market is trying to use the same unsustainable methods. They end up working harder, producing less overall, and end up producing non nutritious food than can be called Organic. When people start learning that the nutrition of food is wholly dependant on the soil where it is grown, and that a vast majority of the soil in the United States has been depleted since the dust bowl, they will be in shock. The USDA has hidden this fact, and has used the principle of Substantial Equivalency to hide this fact, as well as using it to introduce Genetically Modified Food into the American Food supply without adequate testing.

Of course, people end up with full bellies, but they don't ask the big question, -- Full of What? High sugars and starches, but no important trace minerals required for thinking minds and active physical exercise. Americans are about as well fed as a Calf destined for Veal production. No wonder their brains don't work. No wonder they don't offer any resistance to corrupt political and economic systems. They operate in a fog of borderline malnutrition, and don't connect it to their diseases, aches and pains or inability to understand wealth other than following the other sheep by becoming wage slaves.

[Demeter]

102. Welcome Grinchie! Great Post!

Y'all come on back, heah? Look for Weekend Economists tomorrow in Editiorials. The party never stops for this bunch!

[Grinchie]

104. I've been lurking for at least 6 years.

This place is a treasure trove of information, links and wisdom.

I can safely say that this thread put me on the right track to becoming totally free of debt, owning everything free and clear, and becoming liquid at a time when the majority of people are struggling.

It took a lot of work to get rid of my bad habits ingrained into me since childhood, but boy was it worth it.

The best lesson I've learned so far - never get emotionally involved in a deal. Never fall for "For a limited Time" offers, and always sleep on any major purchase. Also, have at least a years worth of cash on hand for food, water and shelter.

Love your posts Demeter, and Happy New Year!

[ozymandius]

65. Lost decade for stocks

One of the reasons stocks did so badly was that real earnings ended the decade 80% lower than they began. Even when you smooth out cyclical variations by taking a decade-long average as in the dashed blue line below, the downturn in earnings at the end of the decade is still pretty significant.
.....

Many financial analysts used to give the advice to put steady monthly amounts into stocks and hold for the long term, trusting in the long-run averages eventually to give you that 5.5% annual real return. The experience of the last decade has spooked some people out of that philosophy. I think it still makes sense provided that the long-run P/E doesn't get above 20; beyond that, you want to be aware of the risks.

Some people have the psychological reaction that when stock prices have been going down, equities are becoming a riskier investment. I take the opposite view-- the higher stock prices go, the scarier they look to me.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/12/lost_decade_for.html

[Robbien]

76. European media has christened the zero decade "The Noughties "

A Political Review of the Noughties
http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/political-review-noughties/1273/34548

The good, the bad and the rollercoaster Noughties
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article6971956.ece


A decade all for nought. Webster's def: worthless, useless, wicked, evil.
A good fit.

[Demeter]

103. You Can Say That Again

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id6roL2dYfM

[ozymandius]

77. Stiglitz: 6 Harsh lessons We Failed to Learn

From Ritholtz:

What were those 6 “harsh” lessons?

1. Markets are not self-correcting, and without adequate regulation, they are prone to excess.

2. There are many reasons for market failures. Too-big-to-fail financial institutions had perverse incentives: Privatized gains, socialized losses. .

3. When information is imperfect, markets often do not work well – and information imperfections are central in finance.

4. Keynesian policies do work. Countries, like Australia, that implemented large, well-designed stimulus programs early emerged from the crisis faster

5. There is more to monetary policy than just fighting inflation. Excessive focus on inflation meant that some central banks ignored what was happening to their financial markets. The costs of mild inflation are miniscule compared to the costs imposed on economies when central banks allow asset bubbles to grow unchecked.

6. Not all innovation leads to a more efficient and productive economy – let alone a better society. Private incentives matter, and if they are not properly aligned, the result can be excessive risk taking, excessively shortsighted behavior, and distorted innovation.

Why this was published in the China Daily, and not in the US is beyond my understanding . . .

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/stiglitz-6-harsh-lessons-we-failed-to-learn/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

[Grinchie]

89. I think you know why...

This article lays it out on the line, and god forbid the give Stiglitz any credit for actually understanding how things went wrong, especially when they are the status quo on the edge of collapse.

[Demeter]

4. Iceland approves repayment scheme

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5hLJPJ3fJZzNG9uPTmQx9UORo-S5w

Iceland's parliament approved plans to repay £3.4bn (3.8bn euros) lost by savers in Britain and the Netherlands when the country's banking system collapsed, it has been reported.

The money will reimburse the British and Dutch governments which stepped in to compensate depositors with Icesave after its parent bank Landsbanki failed last year.

The bank's collapse left more than 320,000 savers out of pocket.

Iceland's MPs backed the Icesave Bill by a narrow margin of 33 votes to 30 in a move likely to help boost the country's bid to join the European Union and repair its battered economy.

There has been strong opposition to the measure in Iceland, amid fears the country would not be able to afford repayments.

"Approving the Bill is the better option and will avoid even more economic damage," Steingrimur Sigfusson, Iceland's finance minister, said during the debate.

"History will show that we are doing the right thing."

Iceland's MPs approved an initial deal in August that would effectively turn the bailout into a loan, which would be repaid with interest over 15 years from 2016.

But the British and Dutch governments rejected amendments to the agreement introduced by the Icelandic parliament, prompting a new vote.

UNLESS THEY CAN NAB THE BANKSTERS WHO COMMITTED THE FRAUD AND SHAKE LOSS THE KRONAR, THEY ARE NOT DOING THE RIGHT THING.

WHO DOES THE ICELANDIC GOVT. THINK THEY ARE? UNCLE STUPID, FORMERLY KNOWN AS UNCLE SUGAR?

[ozymandius]

6. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 12/26
Briefing.com 445K
Consensus 460K
Prior 452K

08:30 Continuing Claims 12/19
Briefing.com 5100K
Consensus 5100K
Prior 5076K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

15. Ahead of the Bell: Jobless claims

WASHINGTON – The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits likely rose slightly last week, a sign that jobs remain scarce even as the economy slowly recovers.

A Labor Department report is expected to show new unemployment insurance claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 460,000, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Economists closely monitor initial claims, which are considered a gauge of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies' willingness to hire new workers.

Claims have dropped rapidly in the past two months, an indication that companies are shedding fewer workers. The drop has also raised hopes that the economy may see a net increase in jobs as soon as January or February. Claims have dropped by 80,000, or 15 percent, since late October.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091231/ap_on_bi_ge/us_jobless_claims_ahead_of_the_bell

---

Continuing claims are expected to rise.

[UpInArms]

38. Initial Claims @ 432,000 - last wk rev'd up 8k

Total state and federal claims at 10.2 million 8:30 a.m. Today

Continuing claims drop 57,000 to 4.98 million 8:30 a.m. Today

Weekly jobless claims fall 22,000 to 432,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[Po_d Mainiac]

48. but

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people that have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits typically provided by states, and are receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

About 4.8 million people were receiving extended benefits in the week ended Dec. 12, the latest data available, an increase of 200,000 from the previous week. The rise is partly a result of another extension of benefits by Congress in November.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-claims-fall-apf-2239818806.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[Dr.Phool]

64. It ALWAYS drops on a shortened holiday week.

It should drop this week also. Give it two weeks, take two aspirin, and call it in again in the morning.

[Robbien]

73. The media keeps the focus on a fictitious change

But last week 454,000 people were newly unemployed
This week 432,000 people joined them.

How is that a drop?

[Demeter]

7. AIG says general counsel Kelly resigns over pay cut

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aig-general-counsel-kelly-resigns-over-pay-cut-2009-12-30?siteid=YAHOOB

Chief compliance officer also leaves government-owned insurer

American International Group said late Wednesday that Vice Chairman and general counsel Anastasia Kelly resigned because her pay was cut by the government.

Kelly's resignation, effective Dec. 30, was for "good reason" under the terms of AIG's Executive Severance Plan, based on the reduction in her base salary that was mandated by the government's so-called pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg, according to AIG /quotes/comstock/13*!aig/quotes/nls/aig (AIG 30.57, -0.03, -0.10%) .

That will likely trigger a big severance payment to Kelly that could cause more controversy over executive compensation at the company, which was bailed out with at least $80 billion in government support last year.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that AIG would pay Kelly "several million dollars" because the company's severance plan stipulates that certain executives can resign and collect severance if their pay is cut significantly.

"On behalf of the management team, employees, and the Board of Directors, I would like to thank Stasia for her tireless service to the company," AIG Chief Executive Robert Benmosche said in a statement.

"We are exceedingly grateful for the work she has done to help AIG recover from its financial crisis and the excellent counsel she has provided the company, often during very difficult times," he added.

The government-owned insurance giant also said Suzanne Folsom, chief compliance and regulatory officer, has left.

Benmosche said that AIG expects a smooth transition and has already started looking for replacements for Kelly and Folsom.

AIG shares slipped 3.4% to $30.60 on Wednesday.

AIG's Anastasia Kelly to get about $2.8 million in severance

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091230/bs_nm/us_aig_resignations_kelly

American International Group Inc's (AIG.N) Anastasia Kelly will get about $2.8 million as she leaves the giant insurer, according to a source familiar with the matter.

AIG on Wednesday announced that Kelly planned to leave the company after her pay was cut because of pay curbs imposed by the Obama Administration's pay czar.

A LOT OF MONEY FOR DOING NOTHING, IMO.

[ozymandius]

11. I can imagine one scenario in which she would get nothing.

If Kelly were part of a union, the contract would be either ignored or nulled in court. Union contracts seem to be the only ones the government will not honor in a bailout.

[Po_d Mainiac]

12. Where's that FRSP icon? n/t

[Demeter]

13. I'm Working On It

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. She's a thing of beauty in need of a splash of red!!

[tclambert]

92. Got an old joke for ya.

A priest, a judge, and an engineer are in line for the guillotine during the French Revolution. The priest says, "I have always been a strong believer in God. May I face toward Heaven when I meet my end?"

The executioner says, "Sure, sure, face up it is."

But the blade of the guillotine stops just short of the priest's throat.

"A MIRACLE!" the crowd bellows, and they let the priest go free.

The judge, knowing a good thing when he sees it, says, "I, too, have been a firm believer in God and heaven, and tried to let God guide my decisions in court. May I also face upwards at my end? (And here's a few francs I hid in my underwear.)"

The executioner makes the money vanish and places the judge face up in the guillotine. Again the blade stops just short.

"ANOTHER MIRACLE!" the crowd bellows, and they let the judge go free.

The engineer, detecting a pattern, says, "I would like to be placed face up, too, as I have heard of this God fellow and sometimes walk by a church."

The executioner shrugs (French!) and straps him in face up. But just before he lets the blade go, the engineer says, "Wait, I think I see your problem. There's a knot in the rope."

[Hugin]

52. They're starting to deploy their golden parachutes.

Now, it's up to the Government as representatives of the Taxpayers to make sure those parachutes are anvils...

[Demeter]

56. Difference of Facts?

● Anastasia Kelly, general counsel for AIG, who resigned after a dispute over government-imposed pay limits, will reap about $3.8m in severance, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

from Financial Times

[Hugin]

58. Apparently, it hasn't been made entirely clear to Kelly how close she came to losing it ALL!

How close they remain to losing it all...

Gads! Ivory Towers, anyone? :eyes: I find the displays of entitlement by these people to be disgusting beyond description... and these people are the same as those who will begrudge food-stamps to kids. :puke:

[mbperrin]

79. Bye, Annie! Can you carry another one under each arm on the way

out, please?

And I do think that any "severance" should be in the form of stock, certainly should be resized to the new allowable salary.

I got severance pay once, in 1993 - $850. (It was 10% of the value of untaken vacations in 8 years.)

At last! Now can the rest of them get out now!!!???

[ozymandius]

8. Oil rises in Asia after US crude stockpiles fall (what?)

BANGKOK – Oil prices headed toward $80 a barrel Thursday in Asia, the final day of trading for 2009, after U.S. crude stockpiles fell for the fourth week in a row.
.....

The Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude supplies shrank by 1.5 million barrels last week, less than the expected drop of 2.2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies also fell.

The drop in inventories isn't necessarily a sign of fundamental improvement in demand for crude.

It is typical to see crude draws at this time of year because many companies empty out storage facilities for tax purposes. While supplies have fallen nearly 14 million barrels over the past four weeks, they remain relatively high compared with past years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

10. Oil falls amid reported rise in US inventories (12/30/09)

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices fell slightly Wednesday in Asia amid a surprise rise in U.S. weekly crude inventory ahead of the release of government data.

Benchmark crude for February delivery was down 10 cents to $78.77 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 10 cents to settle at $78.87 on Tuesday.

Oil has gained for five straight days but traded lower early Wednesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase of 1.725 million barrels in U.S. inventories last week, said Clarence Chu, a trader with Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore.

---

I wish API and EIA would get their numbers straight.

[Demeter]

16. US slaps new duties on Chinese steel

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e02e2888-f56a-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

The US will impose tough new duties on Chinese steel piping imports, raising tensions with its biggest trading partner and emerging geopolitical rival.

With Chinese piping imports worth $2.8bn in 2008, the case is the biggest against China brought before the International Trade Commission, a US trade body, but follows other US actions to counter a flood of goods that Washington claims China is exporting at below market prices.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said it was ”strongly dissatisfied with and resolutely opposed” to the piping duties. ”US domestic industry has been seeking opportunities to win trade relief and protection, and shifted the blame for its hardships onto imports,” the ministry said. “Finding that Chinese oil well pipes have damaged US industry is a mistaken step that ignores the facts.”

The ITC’s ruling will hit Chinese companies with additional taxes ranging from 10 per cent to 16 per cent, and backs an earlier claim from the commerce department that argued that the US steel industry was being harmed by Chinese dumping. The US government has been under intense pressure to protect domestic industries to stem the flow of job losses.

“While the Chinese have been eating our lunch, this ruling doesn’t allow them to have our dinner also,” said Tom Danjczek, president of the US Steel Manufacturers Association.

Through its decision, the ITC is siding with US steel piping producers who argue subsidised Chinese imports have been harmful or could threaten the industry. The ruling will be passed on to the commerce department, which will impose the additional tax. “Nothing can create jobs faster in the United States than making China trade fairly,” said Roger Schagrin, a lawyer representing the US steel industry.

According to the Steel Manufacturers Association, China’s trade practices had cut US steel pipe and tube production 40 per cent in the past year and cost thousands of jobs. In spite of those claims, four of the six ITC commissioners based their ruling on the threat of future harm to the industry rather than on existing damages.

Steel piping is widely used by the oil industry for drilling and was in great demand last year when oil prices surged. The commerce department estimated that between 2006 and 2008 Chinese pipe imports surged 203 per cent. Daniel Porter, a lawyer representing 11 of China’s largest steel pipe exporters, said the decision was not fair because US steel pipe producers notched record profits in 2008 when they could not keep up with demand, which fell in 2009 along with oil prices.

“We’re obviously disappointed,” Mr Porter said, noting that his clients would consider appealing the case to the World Trade Organisation. “Demand collapsed, but that’s not the fault of the Chinese. In our view, the Chinese were just responding to the market.”

Friction between the US and China has been building this year after disputes over tariffs on tyres, cars and chickens. China denounced a move by the US earlier this year to tax imports of Chinese car and light truck tyres as a “serious act of trade protectionism”.

YOU GOTTA WONDER WHY THE US IS SLAPPING CHINA AROUND, BUT LETTING THE BANKSTERS SLAP IT AROUND. LIKE THE MAN COMING HOME FROM A BAD DAY AT WORK TO KICK THE DOG?

CHINA IS OBVIOUSLY NOT YET PART OF THE GLOBALIST NETWORK. I HOPE CHINA TAKES IT DOWN, WITH CHAVEZ' HELP.

[ozymandius]

24. This should be fun to watch.

Along with this story: Chinese firm says won't pay Goldman on options losses

Let the posturing begin!

[Po_d Mainiac]

27. Shenzhen Nanshan Power figures they got scammed and tells

the banksters to ESAD (Another Icon needed: Eat Shit and Die). I'd hate to be a GS rep on the mainland as this plays out. China has shown that they deal with fraud a bit harsher than here in the States. :FRSP:

[ozymandius]

30. Elad has some (more) work to do. These emoticon ideas are great.

:esad: :frsp:

About China: Bully! for them. I would not want to be a Bankster on the mainland right now.

[Tansy_Gold]

31. I wonder what that would look like.

The ESAD icon that is.



Tansy Gold, who has no artistic talent at all and so will just have to imagine. . .. .

[Tansy_Gold]

33. However, I found this by googling "ESAD"

Hey, works for me!

[ozymandius]

34. I would start with combining these two images.

:popcorn: and :hangover:

Replace the popcorn bag with a bowl.

Then animate popcorn face to hangover face.

Place X X over the hangover eyes. And Voila!

Edit to add: usage of this may break rules of propriety here at DU. But I like it all the same.

[mbperrin]

80. Hmmm, guess the "masters of the universe" won't like being told

off by some "commies."

I wish our government were THOSE kind of "commies."

Just say no! (Hey, wasn't that a Raygun deal? See? It's all-American!)

[Demeter]

49. China’s merger push barely affected by crisis

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd1650ac-f571-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

Chinese companies continued to snap up acquisitions abroad at a strong pace this year in spite of fears at the start of 2009 that the global economic crisis would force them to ease back on outbound mergers and acquisitions.

The companies were involved in an aggregate $46bn of outbound M&A deals in the year to date, nearly matching last year’s record of $50bn, according to Dealogic, the data provider.

The figures suggest Chinese outbound activity has settled at a higher level than in previous years. Dealogic says that Chinese outbound M&A was $9.6bn in 2005 and $25.4bn in 2007.

“The impact of the global economic downturn on M&A activity has been short-lived,” said David Brown, a Hong Kong-based partner at PwC.

This year’s activity was driven by a lengthy list of energy and resources deals, in countries including the US, UK and Australia. Top of the list was Sinopec’s $8bn takeover of Geneva-based Addax Petroleum, a UK-listed oil producer.

Other notable deals included PetroChina’s $2.4bn takeover of Singapore Petroleum and the $1.6bn minority stake in AES Corp in the US acquired by China Investment Corp, the sovereign wealth fund.

Chinese outbound investment is becoming increasingly sophisticated, said PwC, with CIC this year announcing two unusual minority investments valued at a combined $1.6bn.

As a result, CIC will establish a joint venture with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed polysilicon supplier and power producer, and ally itself to Noble Group, a Singapore-listed commodities producer and trading house.

Regional dealmakers say that Chinese companies are studying a wide range ofbig overseas investment opportunities.

Wei Sun Christianson, chief executive of Morgan Stanley China, said that outbound deals would continue to be driven by the country’s thirst for energy security. “China also wants to diversify away from its exposure to US dollar assets, hence the expectation for deals in Europe, Canada and Australia,” she said.

Inbound M&A fell sharply with $31.2bn of announced deals in the year to date, a 25 per cent fall on last year, said Dealogic.

The largest inbound deal involved BBVA, Spain’s second-largest lender, which spent $1.5bn to increase its strategic stake in China Citic Bank by 5 percentage points to 15 per cent.

Ms Christianson said inbound deals had fallen as foreign companies looked to survive the global downturn and many mainland companies did not want capital or outside expertise.

[Demeter]

59. US to tax Chinese steel grating imports

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e71b43cc-f4c7-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

The US slapped China with another trade penalty on Tuesday, hitting Beijing with anti-dumping duties on $91m of steel grate imports.

The commerce department’s move follows a similar action taken last month on $2.6bn in pipe imports and creates further tension between the US and its biggest trade partner. The US said that China is exporting steel grating, which is used for walkways, platforms and flooring, at rates below market value.

Most Chinese producers of steel grating will now face anti-dumping duties of 145 per cent, which they will have to pay as a cash deposit or bond upon arrival to the US. That rate represents how far below market value the US says China is selling its steel.

According to the commerce department, US imports of Chinese steel grating surged by 538.44 per cent between 2006 and 2008. The US imported $91m worth of steel grating from China last year.

Alabama Metal Industries and Fisher & Ludlow were the US companies that petitioned for the investigation.

China has accused the US of “rampant” protectionism after facing accusations of selling goods such as cars, tyres and chickens below market rates. The Chinese government has reciprocated with its own import duties and has criticised the “Buy American” provisions in the US stimulus package.

Earlier this month China imposed duties on specialty steel products from the US and Russia and last week it said it would slap the European Union with anti-dumping duties for carbon steel fasteners. That was a response to an EU import tax on Chinese shoes...

[Demeter]

18. Kazakhstan claims to be biggest uranium miner

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73d365e4-f575-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

Kazakhstan said on Wednesday it had overtaken Canada and Australia to become the world’s biggest uranium miner as nations rich in the resource ramp up production to sell into a resurgent nuclear power industry.

The announcement came the day after allegations that Kazakhstan was close to clinching a $450m deal to sell 1,350 tons of uranium to Iran. Exports to Iran of purified uranium known as “yellowcake” would breach United Nations sanctions imposed on Tehran for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment programme.

The report, which was immediately rejected by Iran, raised alarm bells in Washington, where the state department said “full implementation of existing sanctions is a vital aspect of the international community’s efforts to prevent Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability through diplomacy”.

Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry blasted the report as “a groundless insinuation damaging the reputation of our country”. The former Soviet republic, which won western plaudits for giving up Soviet-era nuclear weapons after becoming independent in 1991, is building a thriving uranium export business and has agreed supply deals with Russia, Japan, China and India.

However, the allegations of a deal with Iran come at a particularly awkward time. Mukhtar Dzhakishev, former president of Kazatomprom, the state atomic power company, goes on trial in a closed court next week following his arrest in May on charges of stealing state uranium assets.

Kazatomprom said uranium production had increased by 63 per cent to reach at least 13,900 tons – about one-third of world output – in 2009.

It said Kazakhstan’s uranium output would rise to 18,000 tons next year.

The World Nuclear Association forecasts uranium demand will increase by 50 per cent in the coming years as large numbers of nuclear power plants are built, especially in China.

Kazatomprom bought a 10 per cent stake in Westinghouse, the US group, from Toshiba in 2007, and it has insisted that its foreign partners share nuclear processing technology with it in exchange for mining rights.

Although Australia is rich in uranium – the BHP Billiton-owned Olympic Dam in South Australia has roughly 10 times more uranium than the next largest known deposit – Canberra has refused to sell uranium to countries like India that have not signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

AND THIS LITTLE REPORT EXPLAINS A WHOLE LOT OF THINGS...

[ozymandius]

28. Stocks Set for Biggest Annual Gain Since 2003; Copper Advances

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rose around the world, set for the biggest annual gain since 2003, and copper headed for its best rally in at least a decade after China pledged to maintain policies that helped pull the world from recession.

The MSCI World Index climbed 0.4 percent at 12:05 p.m. in London, bringing its 2009 advance to 28 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent. The dollar dropped against higher-yielding currencies, including Australia’s dollar. Treasury futures fell, with bonds heading for the worst performance since at least 1978. The S&P GSCI Index of 24 raw materials rose 0.8 percent, taking its annual gain to 51 percent, the best year since at least 1970.
.....

Stocks worldwide have risen the most since 2003 this year on speculation interest rates near zero and increased government spending will sustain the recovery from the first global recession since World War II. The MSCI World Index plunged 42 percent in 2008, the most in its 40-year history, hurt by the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market in the U.S. and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
.....

President Barack Obama is borrowing unprecedented amounts for programs to revive the economy. U.S. marketable debt increased to a record $7.17 trillion in November, from $5.80 trillion at the end of last year. U.S. securities have fallen 3.5 percent this year, the most among Group of Seven countries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4WK4IFv4etE&pos=1

[Demeter]

67. Emerging markets funds lure investors

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/84595742-f4a9-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

Investors have pumped a record amount of money into equity funds focused on emerging markets this year in a sharp reversal of sentiment.

Emerging equity fund inflows surged to $80.3bn in 2009, according to research group EPFR Global. That was the highest influx since EPFR started tracking the data in 1997 and compared with $49.5bn of outflows in 2008.

This year’s inflows also were $25.9bn more than the previous record in 2007 and contrasted with the $86bn of outflows suffered by developed world equity funds in 2009.

“It has been a great year for the emerging markets after the collapse of many of these markets at the end of 2008,” said Nigel Rendell, senior emerging market strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

The FTSE All-World Emerging Markets Index has risen 75 per cent since January 1, far outpacing the 28 per cent gain reaped by the FTSE All-World Developed Index.

Analysts said emerging markets were valued at about 20 times their trailing 12-month earnings, compared with about 7.9 times during March lows.

The world’s four biggest emerging market economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China (known collectively as Bric) accounted for the bulk of this year’s investor interest, with about $60bn of these inflows.

Global emerging market equity funds, which mainly invest in the big four, have seen inflows of $39bn in 2009. Funds that specifically invest in the Bric as a group have seen $4.75bn of inflows this year, China-specific funds have absorbed $6.8bn, Brazil-specific funds $4.9bn, India $3.1bn and Russia $1.5bn.

In recent months, flows have been boosted by funds that normally only invest in developed world stocks, as well as dedicated emerging market groups.

Investors have been particularly keen to gain exposure to China as it has become the driving force behind the global economy, with growth forecasts of 10 per cent for 2010, says RBC Capital Markets.

With industrialised economies expected to grow at much lower levels than their emerging market peers, investors expect greater returns from developing world stocks.

Emerging market currencies, such as the Brazilian real and the South African rand, also had a strong year. The real is up 25 per cent against the US dollar and the rand is up 22 per cent since January 1.

Analysts warn that the outlook remains uncertain for next year because any signs of a slowdown in the US economy could prompt a sharp rise in risk aversion. This could prompt a sell-off in emerging markets.

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. Maybe this will really start getting some legs

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/move-your-money-a-new-yea_b_406022.html

If Uncle Sugar won't do it, the people can

[ozymandius]

35. two poignant paragraphs

The big banks on Wall Street, propped up by taxpayer money and government guarantees, have had a record year, making record profits while returning to the highly leveraged activities that brought our economy to the brink of disaster. In a slap in the face to taxpayers, they have also cut back on the money they are lending, even though the need to get credit flowing again was one of the main points used in selling the public the bank bailout. But since April, the Big Four banks -- JP Morgan/Chase, Citibank, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo -- all of which took billions in taxpayer money, have cut lending to businesses by $100 billion.

Meanwhile, America's Main Street community banks -- the vast majority of which avoided the banquet of greed and corruption that created the toxic economic swamp we are still fighting to get ourselves out of -- are struggling. Many of them have closed down (or been taken over by the FDIC) over the last 12 months. The government policy of protecting the Too Big and Politically Connected to Fail is badly hurting the small banks, which are having a much harder time competing in the financial marketplace. As a result, a system which was already dangerously concentrated at the top has only become more so.

It's a wonderful idea. Good thing about community banks and credit unions is that you often earn higher returns on your money.

[ozymandius]

50. Naked Capitalism builds on these suggestions.

Guest Post: Find a Local Credit Union and Assess Its Safety

In support of Huffington Post’s call for people to move our money from the giant banks to community banks and credit unions:

• Here is a site which lets you find local credit unions

• Here is a site which rates the safety of banks, thrifts and credit unions

• And here is another site which rates the safety of credit unions.

more at link...

[Po_d Mainiac]

63. Another bank tracking site..very user friendly

http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/

[DemReadingDU]

86. that's my favorite, and Ozy has it in the Handy Links at the top of page

Here's the site link for checking credit unions
http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/credit-unions/

[Festivito]

37. Debt: 12/29/2009 12,100,218,479,276.16 (DOWN 4,222,735,097.52) (Tue)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,719,580,903,990.08 + 4,380,637,575,286.08
DOWN 15,034,724,927.64 + UP 10,811,989,830.12

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,331,678 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,244.16.
A family of three owes $117,732.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,162,186,211.80.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,052,269,888.66.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,861,503,020.62.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 61 reports in 90 days of FY2010 averaging 3.12B$ per report, 2.12B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,118 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/29/2009 12,100,218,479,276.16 BHO (UP 1,473,341,430,363.08 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,190,389,475,764.40 ------------* * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,772,135,096,155.62 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/08/2009 +000,060,968,077.60 ------------*******
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -

9,794,077,673.18 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4203683&mesg_id=4203722

[Festivito]

105. Debt: 12/30/2009 12,144,893,016,570.46 (UP 44,674,537,294.30) (Wed)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,727,177,503,757.64 + 4,417,715,512,812.82
UP 7,596,599,767.56 + UP 37,077,937,526.74

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,340,318 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,387.95.
A family of three owes $118,163.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 1,447,521,747.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,061,515,948.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 62 reports in 91 days of FY2010 averaging 3.79B$ per report, 2.58B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,117 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
12/30/2009 12,144,893,016,570.46 BHO (UP 1,518,015,967,657.38 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,235,064,013,058.70 ------------* * * * * BHO
Endof10 +0,942,839,173,257.43 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/09/2009 +000,189,524,372.49 ------------********
12/10/2009 +012,264,233,958.36 ------------**********
12/11/2009 +000,041,027,768.14 ------------*******
12/14/2009 -012,123,818,214.95 - Mon
12/15/2009 +058,799,676,220.27 ------------**********
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********

17,329,709,363.14 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4205433&mesg_id=4205518

[Demeter]

39. French drinkers toast cheap champagne

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/321b91ba-f56d-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

New Year revellers in France have an extra reason to raise their glasses at midnight: champagne at less than €10 a bottle, as producers cut prices in response to the economic downturn....

...The move is a change in strategy for producers that have generally increased prices in recent years. The value of champagne sold almost doubled in the two decades to 2007.

Faced with increasing competition from sparkling wines over the past 10 years, champagne makers have focused on cultivating the brand.

However, French champagne industry insiders estimate that sales have fallen by 30 per cent in the past year....

[ozymandius]

40. Wall Street Waits as SEC Fails to Bring Madoff-Inspired Reforms

Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Mary Schapiro, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said she wanted to show that her agency was cracking down after missing Bernard Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme. In May, she proposed that almost 10,000 money managers undergo surprise inspections to make sure they weren’t ripping off clients.
.....

On Dec. 16, she settled for something less sweeping. Schapiro joined four other commissioners in approving a rule that requires about 1,600 U.S. fund managers to submit to unannounced audits, 83 percent fewer than seven months ago. The revision came after lobbying by fund companies, including executives from T. Rowe Price Group Inc., who met with Schapiro, and Legg Mason Inc., who met with another commissioner, SEC records show.

The diminished inspections rule is one of at least four Schapiro announced as a way to protect investors and boost confidence, then later scaled back or delayed. In August, she bought herself more time on a rule to rein in short-sellers, after lobbying by hedge funds. In October, Schapiro put off plans to give investors more power to decide who sits on corporate boards after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce questioned the SEC’s jurisdiction.
.....

In her first year in office, Schapiro’s found that issuing proposals is easier than completing rules. “You get zero points in history for what you proposed,” said former SEC Chairman Richard Breeden, who now manages a hedge fund that tries to remove directors at companies he says are underperforming. “You get points for what you get over the goal line.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=afUo_v5lEmwc&pos=15

[Tansy_Gold]

41. yay! More change!

:puke:

[Demeter]

43. Small Change at That

Time to say: "Keep the change!"

[Tansy_Gold]

44. Keep the change is right, especially when the "change"

is to something WORSE THAN WHAT WE HAD BEFORE.

But hey, the market is up and it's 12/31.

:party:





:sarcasm:

[Demeter]

42. Japan unveils ambitious growth strategy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/57c68f50-f4f0-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

The Japanese government on Wednesday unveiled an ambitious economic growth plan, pledging to create millions of new jobs and achieve average growth of 2 per cent over the next decade.

Yukio Hatoyama, prime minister, said the government’s new growth strategy would focus on harnessing Japan’s strengths to create new markets valued at Y100,000bn ($1,090bn, €760bn, £680bn) in the environmental, healthcare and tourism sectors.

By stimulating demand in these areas and improving the supply of goods and services to meet this new need, the government expects to create 4.76m jobs by 2020.

The bold targets come as the government forecasts the Japanese economy, which has suffered persistent deflation, will shrink 4.3 per cent in nominal terms in the year to next March.

Japan has not seen gross domestic product growth of 2 per cent since the 1980s. Nevertheless, Mr Hatoyama expressed confidence in the government’s ability to achieve its stated targets, saying: “We will complete no matter what.”

The government under the Democratic Party of Japan has been criticised for lacking an economic growth strategy while increasing public expenditures to meet the ruling party’s campaign pledges.

“We want to reshape the nation,” Mr Hatoyama said.

The birth of the new DPJ-led government was “a once in a century chance to change direction and realise an economy for the people,” he said.

In an unusual step, the government also said it would aim to increase nominal GDP to Y650,000bn by March 2021, or an average increase of more than 3 per cent.

The government has tended to focus on real GDP, which adjusts for prices and paints a rosier picture for deflation-afflicted Japan.

The nominal GDP target represents a leap forward from the record 4.3 per cent contraction to Y473,000bn, which the government forecasts for fiscal 2009, ending next March.

Economists said the targets were unrealistic. “Basically, it is extremely difficult to achieve that average from 2010 until 2020. Even if this growth strategy is effective, the growth target will only be achievable from around 2015,” said Ryota Sakagami, at Nomura Securities in Tokyo.

The plan was, nonetheless, useful in providing a clear sign of the areas the government wanted to focus on, he said.

The new plan, details of which will be hammered out by next June, sets a target for combined public and private sector investment in research and development to hit 4 per cent of GDP.

Tokyo also aims to draw up a plan for establishing a free trade area in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020.

HAS ANYBODY BEEN ABLE TO READ THE CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HITMAN, BY JOHN PERKINS? DID JAPAN GET WORKED OVER BY THE MULTINATIONAL CORPORATE GLOBALISTS?

[Demeter]

46. Chelsea owner axes £340m of debt

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bf8da7c-f574-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

Roman Abramovich, the Russian billionaire, has wiped out £340m of debt of Chelsea Football Club, leaving the current English Premiership leaders largely debt-free.

The move, which puts Chelsea in a strong position ahead of proposed rules seeking to prevent European football clubs from taking on unsustainable levels of debt, was disclosed in its financial results for the year to June 30.

Mr Abramovich converted the £340m of interest-free loans owed by the club to him into equity. It follows a similar gesture of largesse from the club owner in the previous year, reducing Chelsea’s burden of debt to Mr Abramovich from a peak £760m.

Bruce Buck, Chelsea chairman, said: “The club’s debt load has been reduced almost to nil.

“The reduction will also enable the club to comply with any regulations on debt levels which are being discussed by the football community.”

Chelsea’s move to debt-free status follows a protracted spending spree under the ownership of Mr Abramovich, who bought the club in 2003. It has since seen a succession of high-profile managers gain domestic honours but fail to deliver his ambition of a Champions League victory.

Losses for the year to June fell from £66m to £44m and would have been lower but for a £12.6m payment to former Brazilian World Cup-winning manager Luiz Felipe Scolari and three staff following his sacking during last season.

Revenue slipped from £213.1m to £206.4m. Net capital expenditure was reduced from £85.1m to £4.2m following the completion of major capital projects such as the club’s training centre at Cobham.

The debt conversion into equity is consistent with a long-term plan agreed with Peter Kenyon, who recently stepped down as chief executive, for “Phase II” of the Abramovich era aimed at reining in Chelsea’s spending on player transfers and wage bills as the club seeks to break even financially.

The tidying up of Chelsea’s balance sheet also comes soon after publication of a blueprint by Europe’s footballing authorities aimed at curbing the ability of club-owners to buy their way to success.

In September, Michel Platini, Uefa’s president, set out a three-year plan, entitled Fair Play Agenda, aimed at linking clubs’ spending to the revenue they generate, preventing them from accumulating unsustainable levels of debt and controlling the amount spent on transfers and salaries.

Revealing the measures recently, Mr Platini said: “The basic premise is that clubs should not spend more than they earn,” and claimed he had the support of Mr Abramovich.

[UpInArms]

47. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.673 Change -0.241 (-0.31%)

USD Graphic Rewind

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/2009-12-31-0616-USD_Graphic_Rewind.html



...more...

Is the US Dollar’s Strength Simply a Factor of Speculative Unwinding?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2009-12-30-2327-Is_the_US_Dollar_s_Strength.html

Measures of fear and risk are certainly skewed by the unusual conditions that have set in over the last few weeks of 2009. Looking at those indicators that are based on volatility, we see the effects of thin liquidity; but then again, it is also difficult to make an objective assessment of activity through stymied volume and open interest. In these types of conditions, we need to lengthen our horizons and look at the trends that have developed over the past month, three months and year. Risk – and the premiums that it entails – have dropped off significantly over the year. But looking back even further, risk is still high relative to the average levels of the past five to ten years and beyond.



The Economy and the Credit Market

With the end of the year fast approaching, the market is making a review of the dollar through 2009 while speculators and the Fed are already plotting out their forecasts for the new year. Through much of this past year, the greenback was facing a brisk headwind from a fundamental and speculative standpoint. Not only was the currency throttled as global traders exited safe haven Treasuries and funded higher-yielding positions with cheap US financing; but the dollar was also facing the long-term prospect of losing its appeal as the world’s reserve currency. Looking at the greenback’s recent strength, there is little doubt that the effects of short-term swings in speculative sentiment have more than a little to do with the year-end reversal. After shorting the currency for approximately three-quarters of the year, it was inevitable that market participants would eventually unwind their speculative positions and book profit. However, it is not yet clear as to whether this is a bounce associated with year-end accounting and risk reduction or a true reversal founded on the combination of US fundamentals and a speculative qualification of an oversold currency. Relative growth and interest rate forecasts are improving; but that may not truly factor in until well into the first half of 2010. And, in the background, the world is slowly reducing its exposure to the US economy and currency. An IMF report today revealed the dollar’s prevalence in global reserves was at a 10-year low.



...more...

[Demeter]

51. Northern Trust says the party is over

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f53f63e8-f580-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

Northern Trust, the US bank that sparked outrage by throwing lavish parties at a professional golf tournament months after receiving government bail-out funds, plans to cut its entertainment budget drastically at the event next year.

The move reflects how the chastened US banking sector is adjusting to life after the financial crisis, and widespread animosity towards Wall Street.

The Chicago bank came under fire in February when it laid on a series of lavish soirees for guests at the Northern Trust Open in Los Angeles – featuring performances by musical guests such as Sheryl Crow and Earth, Wind and Fire – months after accepting $1.6bn from the US government’s troubled asset relief programme.

John Kerry, the Democratic senator, said the parties were an “idiotic abuse of taxpayer’s money”, while Barney Frank, chairman of the House of Representatives’ financial services committee, said the celebrations showed “extraordinary levels of irresponsibility and arrogance”.

Rick Waddell, Northern Trust’s chairman and chief executive, admitted the scandal contributed to the general antipathy towards banks.

“It was a part, along with all the other incidents,” he told the Financial Times.

“There’s almost not one large institution that has been spared the focus of the media or Congress. In the financial system clearly there were excesses. There’s plenty of blame to go around.”

Mr Waddell said the bank “clearly misjudged the political environment”. But he added: “The political environment in Washington was that they were looking for targets.”

Northern Trust will continue to fulfil its sponsorship obligations next year, Mr Waddell said, but in a humbler manner. “We’re not having any live entertainment,” he said. “It’s going to be more of a traditional hospitality event.

“We’ve pared our budget back. We’ve had the experience of last year, but we’re also managing our expenses in a difficult year as a business.”

Mr Waddell weighed in to the debate over the UK government’s 50 per cent “super tax” on bank bonuses , warning it could prompt financial institutions to move staff from London.

“We’ve already seen other countries reaching out – such as Switzerland – and saying: ‘Locate some of your employees with us’,” he said.

“An unintended consequence could be that London loses its status as a financial centre.”

Northern Trust repaid its Tarp money in June.

[Demeter]

53. Good year as hedge funds play catch-up

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d875cbc6-f571-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

The global hedge fund industry turned in one of its best years of performance in close to a decade in 2009, according to industry data, though managers have yet to fully shake off many of the problems of 2008.

The average hedge fund returned 19 per cent to investors in 2009, according to Chicago-based data provider Hedge Fund Research. Other leading hedge fund indices report average returns of between 12 and 18 per cent, after fees.

Some of the industry’s largest funds have fared even better, delivering some of their strongest performances. Citadel, the $13bn Chicago hedge fund giant run by Ken Griffin, suffered huge losses in 2008 but has seen its flagship Kensington Global Strategies fund rebound close to 60 per cent this year.

Convertible-arbitrage funds, such as Citadel, have led the industry’s resurgence, exploiting pricing discrepancies between corporate convertible debt and equity. According to HFR, the average convertible arbitrage strategy returned more than 56 per cent in 2009.

In comparison, the average equity long/short fund returned 22.17 per cent in the year to December.

The London-based New York-listed GLG Partners, with an estimated $14bn in assets under management, has seen its equity market neutral fund return 77.8 per cent for clients so far this year.

Event-driven funds, which aim to profit from arbitrage opportunities arising from corporate announcements, also fared well, up 22.14 per cent in the year to December.

On average, only dedicated short-biased funds, which aim to profit from declines in companies’ share prices, lost money this year, down 20 per cent.

But many funds have yet to recoup the losses they suffered in 2008.

So-called high water mark clauses mean fund managers are unable to collect lucrative performance fees – typically 20 per cent of returns – until they have made up the lost ground for clients’ investments.

[Demeter]

55. US Treasury takes majority stake in GMAC

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d32f296c-f587-11de-90ab-00144feab49a.html

The US Treasury will become the majority shareholder of GMAC, the former lending arm of General Motors, as part of a restructuring announced on Wednesday.

GMAC is to receive $3.8bn in new government investment via the troubled asset relief programme, the Treasury said, in the final stage of filling a capital hole identified in the “stress tests” on banks earlier this year. The deal brings to a close a busy end to the year for the Treasury’s $700bn Tarp scheme, with most elements of the bail-out programme winding down and companies such as Bank of America and Citigroup racing to repay the government and escape restrictions on pay and hiring.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the rescued mortgage guarantors, are – like GMAC – going the way of deeper state involvement: the Treasury removed a $400bn cap on state aid on Christmas eve.

The Treasury said on Wednesday that it would convert some of its existing preferred stock in GMAC into common equity, a move that will see the government’s ownership increase from 35 per cent to 56.3 per cent. Cerberus, the private equity firm, will be the next biggest shareholder with 14.9 per cent. GMAC has been in talks with regulators and the Treasury for much of the year after abandoning hopes of filling the capital shortfall by raising equity privately.

The Treasury said it had previously budgeted $5.6bn for GMAC. The Obama administration has felt obliged to rescue the business because of its wider efforts to save the US automotive industry. GMAC provides finance to GM and has assumed the same role for Chrysler.

Residential Capital, the mortgage business whose bad debts have weighed down the company, would receive $2.7bn of new capital, the company said. Ally Bank, the banking subsidiary, has recognised a $1.3bn pre-tax charge related to mortgage assets and will receive $1.3bn in new cash.

“These decisive balance sheet actions and resulting capital infusions are intended to minimise the impact on GMAC and Ally Bank of any significant future losses related to ResCap’s legacy mortgage business,” said Michael Carpenter, who took over from Alvaro de Molina as chief executive in November.

“By protecting the financial performance and strength of our core automotive finance operations, we expect to increase the pace at which we can fully repay the US taxpayer. These actions will also allow GMAC to pursue strategic alternatives for ResCap and the mortgage business.”

[Hugin]

62. "... minimise the impact on GMAC and Ally Bank of any significant future losses related to ResCap."

:wtf:

Where's MY minimization of impact?!?1/

[Robbien]

66. Rich Cling to Life to Beat Tax Man

Starting Jan. 1, the estate tax -- which can erase nearly half of a wealthy person's estate -- goes away for a year. For families facing end-of-life decisions in the immediate future, the change is making one of life's most trying episodes only more complex.

"I have two clients on life support, and the families are struggling with whether to continue heroic measures for a few more days," says Joshua Rubenstein, a lawyer with Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP in New York. "Do they want to live for the rest of their lives having made serious medical decisions based on estate-tax law?"

Currently, the tax applies to about 5,500 taxpayers a year. So, on average, at least 15 people die every day whose estates would benefit from the the tax's lapse.

The macabre situation stems from 2001, when Congress raised estate-tax exemptions, culminating with the tax's disappearance next year. However, due to budget constraints, lawmakers didn't make the change permanent. So the estate tax is due to come back to life in 2011 -- at a higher rate and lower exemption.

. . .

Estate-tax experts didn't expect Congress to allow the tax to lapse, and are flabbergasted that it is actually happening. "All fall when I gave speeches, I said I was willing to bet anyone in the room $10 that we would have an estate-tax extension by the end of the year," says Thomas Ochsenschlager, head of taxes for the American Institute of CPAs. "Thank goodness I didn't have any takers," he says.

Now, all bets are off. "If Congress couldn't do it this year, why will they be able to do it next year?" says Prof. Michael Graetz of Columbia University, who worked both at Treasury and for Congress. He calls the lapse "congressional malpractice."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126213588339309657.html

[Demeter]

71. Proof That There Are STILL Two Certainties in Life

Did they mention any names?

[Robbien]

78. Many rich men should be watching their back the whole year

I can envision some spoiled rotten rich kids planning to almost double their inheritance if they can knock off their parents during 2010.

[Demeter]

68. Footsie breaks through Lehman barrier

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6ec69304-f4b8-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

UK stocks broke through a significant barrier set down in the financial crisis as the market’s key index rose above levels last seen before the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank.

The government bond markets also sold off in a sign investors are preparing for stronger growth in 2010 with higher interest rates and the end of quantitative easing, the Bank of England’s emergency policy to flood the economy with money to reverse the downturn...


SPEAKING OF LEHMANS...

[Demeter]

69. Lehman Europe set to return assets

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/597b4e0c-f4ab-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

Administrators to Lehman Brothers’ European arm will soon be able to start returning $11bn of client assets trapped in the bank since its collapse after securing overwhelming support for a distribution plan.

Tuesday’s agreement is a milestone in the complex unwinding of the bank’s operations which is being closely watched by policymakers looking to effect reforms that would avoid a repeat of the turmoil triggered by Lehman’s collapse last year.

The joint administrators of Lehman Brothers International Europe (LBIE), in charge of managing the estate of the London-based European hub of the bank, said that a claim resolution agreement had been put into effect after 90 per cent of clients by value gave their support by a deadline on Tuesday.

The so-called CRA is a contract on an individual basis between LBIE and its clients setting out the basis on which assets can be returned. The mechanism divides clients’ claims into four categories and facilitates the valuation and settlement of disputes over claims.

The breakthrough will come as a relief to many hedge funds that found their assets trapped in the bank when it imploded and have been pressing the administrators to return them quickly for them to avoid losses or even collapse. LBIE had about 900 prime brokerage clients at the time of its collapse, mostly hedge funds

“I am delighted that we have received overwhelming support for this arrangement to return assets to clients,” said Steven Pearson, one of the joint administrators and partner at PwC. “The CRA now provides an agreed basis on which to systematically settle clients’ claims and reunite them with their assets.”

The administrators will now apply the CRA to agree and finalise the claims so that distributions can be made once the March 19 deadline by which claims against the estate have to be made has passed.

This is sooner than had been expected after the English courts blocked an original plan to use a scheme of arrangement to speed up the distribution of assets to clients earlier this year.

The administrators came up with the CRA as an alternative that would avoid clients having to wait potentially years waiting for assets to be returned. It required, however, a much higher level of support than a scheme of arrangement.

LBIE held some $32bn of client assets on 15 September 2008. Since that date $13.3bn has been returned. The administrators have also recovered $1bn of client assets from Lehman Brothers Japan – the first return of assets between affiliates.

Earlier this month, the UK government unveiled proposals to protect clients from a future investment banking collapse and limit its systemic impact.

One of the recommendations detailed in the consultation is for the appointment of a ”client assets trustee” separate from the overall insolvency administrator. The trustee would be charged with getting money back to clients as fast as possible.

A client assets agency may be created within the UK’s Financial Services Authority to ensure the proper segregation and protection of client money.

[Demeter]

70. Proving Once Again the Adage: "Oh, What a Tangled Web We Weave

when first we practice to deceive."

Sir Walter Scott , in Canto VI, Stanza 17 of "Marmion" (1808) an epic poem about the Battle of Flodden Field in 1513.

What Does It All Mean?

Deception is a false reality imposed on a true reality. It is a fragile and complex weaving of truth, half truths, lies and lies of omission. To successfully deceive another or several people, one must be skilled in the art of deception. To create a deception worthy of belief one must be able to create plausible details that help create the illusion of truth. It is the details that people listen to and remember and the one deceiving is obligated to remember these detail in order to avoid having the lie exposed. The problem with remembering the lies we tell is that all people are basically good and we tend to forget the bad things we've done. In order to successfully perpetuate deception, the liar must be willing to live that lie when necessary. This becomes the tangled web we weave, especially when first we practice to deceive.

_________________

It means if you tell lies you'd better have a really good memory or you'll end up in a tangle of lies, half-truths and truths.

Habitual liars can frequently be easily recognised because they like to keep various groups of friends and acquaintances separate for fear they'll exchange notes, thus causing the web to unravel.

It's amusing to watch a confirmed liar finding themself at a function where, say, workmates and friends are present together; they fidget and glance nervously at the various groups...who'd probably never wonder about their tales except for their nervous behaviour.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_%27%27Oh_what_a_tangled_web_we_weave_when_first_we_practice_to_deceive%27%27_mean

[Demeter]

72. Russia to curb speculative capital inflows

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b031350a-f45a-11de-9cba-00144feab49a.html

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, said on Tuesday that Moscow would try to restrain the capital inflows that have caused the rouble to strengthen in recent months, threatening the country’s economic recovery after the financial crisis.

His comments had an immediate impact on markets, with the Russian rouble falling 1.4 per cent and the RTS stock market index down 0.75 per cent.

“We need to correct the rules so it is less interesting for speculative capital to come running into Russia,” Mr Putin told journalists on a trip to Vladivostok.

However, Mr Putin suggested that such efforts would stop short of full capital controls, which have been under discussion in policy circles. “There will be no revolutions,” he said.

Russia’s government has been considering soft capital controls following a resurgence of investor interest in the country from the early northern autumn. Like other major emerging markets, it has seen its currency appreciate significantly in recent months.

In October, Brazil became the first of the large emerging market countries to tax capital inflows to discourage short-term hot money from flowing in.

In part to lessen Russia’s appeal to investors, the central bank has been steadily lowering interest rates recently. But Brazil-style restrictions on foreign investment are not likely, say Kremlin officials.

Investors say high commodity prices and low debt levels make Russia an attractive investment target but the current interest in the country is driven primarily by a resurgent global carry trade, in which investors borrow in low interest rate countries and invest in nations with higher rates.

Mr Putin said that while Russia wants to maintain its reputation as a safe home for long-term investment, speculative inflows present policymakers with a dilemma.

“It flows in quite well, works here, but creates problems, because if crisis hits, it leaves quickly,” he said.

Since September 1, the rouble has strengthened about 10 per cent. To prevent further appreciation, the central bank has bought billions of dollars, swelling foreign currency reserves to $443bn from $404bn at the end of August.

The RTS stock market index has risen by 131 per cent this year and investment banks have been enthusiastically talking up Russian equities as an investment prospect for 2010.

[hamerfan]

82. Happy New Year, everyone!

Thanks once again to all of you who post here.
hamerfan

[ozymandius]

85. And to you, too.

Thank you for your wonderful wishes and for your contributions to our community.

[Demeter]

74. China in Pipelinestan--shamelessly stolen crosspost

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=506366&mesg_id=506366

[ozymandius]

83. Here's a snapshot of today's Wall Street bidness.

11:17
Dow 10,492.21 56.30 (0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,283.31 7.97 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,121.82 4.60 (0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 3.807% 0.059
NYSE Volume 695,841,250
Nasdaq Volume 366,354,593.75

11:00 am : All three major indices are currently contending with modest losses. However, financials continue to provide a source of slight support as it sports a 0.4% gain. The sector is on its own, though; every other major sector is in negative territory with losses ranging from fractional (consumer discretionary) to 0.5% (utilities).

Within the financial sector, diversified banks (+0.8%) and diversified financial services players (+0.6%) have garnered the most support. Trading volume in the sector is highest in shares of financial giant Citigroup (C 3.35, +0.03). Citigroup is also among the most actively traded names in the broader market this session. DJ30 -29.92 NASDAQ -3.64 SP500 -2.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1182/325 mln/1318 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1468/115 mln/1370

10:30 am : The dollar continues to improve its position so that it now trades with a loss of just 0.1%. It was down as much as 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies in overnight action.

Though the greenback has gained ground, many commodities continue to sport gains. That has the CRB Commodity Index up a healthy 0.4%.

Precious metals are among the best performing commodities. Gold prices were last quoted 0.7% higher at $1099.60 per ounce. They are off of their session highs, which were near $1106 per ounce, though. Meanwhile, silver is also off of its morning high, but it continues to sport a 0.6% gain at $16.91 per ounce.

[ozymandius]

84. Restaurant Index Shows Contraction in November

From Calculated Risk:

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index. The index is a year-over-year index, so the headline index might be slow to recognize a pickup in business, but the underlying details suggests ongoing weakness.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Industry Outlook Remained Uncertain as the Restaurant Performance Index Declined for the Third Time in the Last Four Months:

The National Restaurant Association’s ... Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) ... stood at 97.8 in November, down 0.2 percent from its October level. In addition, the RPI remained below 100 for the 25th consecutive month, which signifies contraction in the index of key industry indicators.

“Although the RPI remained below 100 for the 25th consecutive month, which signals contraction, restaurant operators are cautiously optimistic that conditions will improve in the months ahead,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Restaurant operators reported a positive six-month sales outlook for the first time in three months, and remained optimistic that the economy will improve during the next six months.”
...
The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 96.0 in November – down 0.5 percent from October and tied for its second-lowest level on record. In addition, November represented the 27th consecutive month below 100, which signifies contraction in the current situation indicators.

Restaurant operators reported negative same-store sales for the 18th consecutive month in November, with the overall results similar to the September and October performances. ...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/restaurant-index-shows-contraction-in.html

There's more info and additional links at CR.

edited for bold emphasis

[CatholicEdHead]

93. Some magazines have suggested the trend is an downgrading of style

In that the 4 and 5 star restaurants are closing down and one to two starts with cheaper fare are more attractive nowadays.

[Karenina]

95. One minute to go, the skies alight!

I'm ensconced in my flat with the windows tightly shut.

OK! THERE GOES!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

[UpInArms]

96. Happy New Year!

[ozymandius]

97. You must be on the East coast.

By that, I mean, the f...a...r East coast. Just for curiosity's sake - where on Earth are you?

I wish you a hearty and happy New Year.

:toast:

[Karenina]

100. Actually, we're west, even if a bit landlocked! GMT+1

Usually blowing up shit goes on intensely for the better part of an hour. I called it at a half hour. How much money can people afford to blow up these days? ;-)

Onward and errraaa... ONWARD! :toast:

[ozymandius]

99. End of the Day - 12/31/09 compared to 01/02/09

December 31, 2009
Dow 10,428.05 120.46 (1.14%)
Nasdaq 2,269.15 22.13 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,115.10 11.32 (1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.807% 0.059
NYSE Volume 2,547,756,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,254,659,250

January 2, 2009
Dow 9,034.69
Nasdaq 1,632.21
S&P 500 931.80