Economists worry economy won't recoup 7 million lost jobs

[Joanne98]

Source: CNN

A two-year string of job losses appears to be near an end, if it hasn't ended already.

But most economists don't expect the employment picture to significantly improve anytime this year -- or over the next few years for that matter.

The unemployment rate, which stood at 10% in November, is expected to stay uncomfortably high for the foreseeable future. Some experts even suggest that the labor market won't be able to fully recover from the 7.2 million jobs lost since the start of 2008 before another recession and round of job losses.

This probably won't be a jobless recovery, like the 21-month period that followed the 2001 recession during which an additional 1.1 million jobs were lost. Most economists are looking for employers to start adding to U.S. payrolls early this year.

Some believe the government will report an increase in jobs for December this Friday. That would be the first increase in payrolls in two years, although the consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com is for another loss of 35,000 jobs.

The first step of climbing out of the job hole is to stop digging. So a positive payroll number would be significant. But the hole the economy fell into during the Great Recession is so deep, the return of hiring won't do much to significantly fix the weak job market.

"The problem is recovery doesn't mean recovered," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. "We need a long recovery to get back 7 million jobs."

Achuthan believes even if there is decent growth this year, there will be slow growth over the course of the expansion. That means it could take as long as 10 years to recover all the lost jobs -- and that assumes that there isn't another recession in that time frame. Achuthan believes another recession later this decade is likely.

Unemployment heading up. The unemployment rate is forecast to be unchanged for December. But most economists expect it to rise during the course of 2010, even as employers start adding jobs.

Part of that is because the economy needs a gain of more than 100,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with population growth.


Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economists-worry-economy-wont-cnnm-1886255353.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

[debbierlus]

1. I love the unrecommenders of harsh reality

[Joanne98]

2. They unrec everything. I have no idea why.

[madrchsod]

5. maybe they are paid with zinga cash?

[Dr.Phool]

6. They don't like to have their parade rained on.

Nobody told them the parade has been canceled.

[ChromeFoundry]

11. no doubt. n/t

[DJ13]

3. If these same economists would stop worshipping free trade we could solve this

How about we start outsourcing our economist needs to China at $1 per hour?

Im sure they couldnt do a worse job, and our present US economists can then understand the results that their love of free trade has had on the rest of our society.

[rfranklin]

4. I think it a bot of some kind...

Just set up to aggravate people.

[amandabeech]

7. Let's outsource the job of Treasury Secretary.

Someone from India couldn't be any worse.

[OhioChick]

8. K&R n/t

[high density]

9. Glad the $1 trillion in tax cuts brought us so many jobs

The media ignored John Kerry in 2004 when he kept drilling home that job growth was not keeping up with population growth. The mortgage bubble was propping everything up so nobody cared.

[kirby]

10. Why should those jobs return?

Many of those jobs were related to a housing bubble. If those same jobs returned, that would mean the bubble was back which would be horrible.

It will take a long time to get those jobs back.

Obama talked about creating new 'Green jobs', but so far that is mainly lip-service. There has been no 'man on the moon' announcement to jump start a massive domestic green manufacturing economy.

[Javaman]

12. Welcome to the new Serf class...

Corporate Land Owner:
Here are your gloves, work boots and jump suit. Yours is red because you are new. After a while, when we believe you are ready, you will get a green one and a pay raise.

Serf looks around at all the other corporate slaves toiling away. All are dressed in red overalls.

New Serf:
Everyone is wearing red.

Corporate Land Owner:
We have a lot of turn over.

New Serf notices that his new red dressed coserfs are filling in, what appears to be, a long and deep trench.

New Serf (nervously):
What is that they are filling in?

Corporate Land Owner:
Oh that, we call that HR.

[No Elephants]

13. I guess the economists finally overheard the rest of us?

[NickB79]

14. And the real results Friday: a net LOSS of 85,000 jobs

So much for their expectations of adding jobs this past month :eyes: