STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday January 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday January 11, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 8, 2010

Dow... 10,618.19 +11.33 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,317.17 +17.12 (+0.74%)
S&P 500... 1,144.98 +3.29 (+0.29%)
Gold future... 1,139 +5.50 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.83 +0.01 (+0.18%)
30-Year Bond 4.71 +0.03 (+0.56%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Festivito]

1. Debt: 01/07/2010 12,280,845,281,517.59 (DOWN 21,234,878,445.42) (Thu)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good morning all, must run.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,781,593,099,593.51 + 4,499,252,181,924.08
DOWN 22,790,950,811.50 + UP 1,556,072,366.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,409,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,819.94.
A family of three owes $119,459.82. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,848,780,324.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,489,105,571.64.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,279,779,585.46.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 67 reports in 99 days of FY2010 averaging 5.54B$ per report, 3.75B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,109 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/07/2010 12,280,845,281,517.59 BHO (UP 1,653,968,232,604.51 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,371,016,278,005.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,367,888,297,698.15 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/16/2009 +000,348,253,057.33 ------------********
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -

12,574,661,094.70 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4216012&mesg_id=4216219

[Festivito]

56. Debt: 01/08/2010 12,280,604,597,845.51 (DOWN 240,683,672.08) (Fri)

(Debt seems to jump up then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,781,415,376,435.24 + 4,499,189,221,410.27
DOWN 177,723,158.27 + DOWN 62,960,513.81

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.73, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,418,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,818.04.
A family of three owes $119,454.13. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 8,605,078,215.94.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,310,390,691.69.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,106,829,701.64.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 68 reports in 100 days of FY2010 averaging 5.45B$ per report, 3.71B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,108 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/08/2010 12,280,604,597,845.51 BHO (UP 1,653,727,548,932.43 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,370,775,594,333.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,353,330,919,318.37 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/17/2009 -036,492,539,788.22 -
12/18/2009 +000,710,260,980.35 ------------********
12/21/2009 -000,155,813,757.66 --- Mon
12/22/2009 +002,618,578,973.78 ------------*********
12/23/2009 +000,459,596,007.01 ------------********
12/24/2009 -001,979,240,244.32 --
12/28/2009 +000,088,095,190.64 ------------******* Mon
12/29/2009 -015,034,724,927.64 -
12/30/2009 +007,596,599,767.56 ------------*********
12/31/2009 +083,831,281,729.66 ------------**********
01/04/2010 -007,102,898,314.32 -- Mon
01/05/2010 +000,354,346,864.84 ------------********
01/06/2010 +000,123,816,367.19 ------------********
01/07/2010 -022,790,950,811.50 -
01/08/2010 -000,177,723,158.27 ---

12,048,684,879.10 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4219774&mesg_id=4219776

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

Of Mountains and Molehills
BY BRIAN PRETTI

As we move into the new year and 2010 forecast after forecast hits the Street, invariably the “mountain of money on the sidelines” argument is being put forth by more than a good number of Street seers and pundits as a rationale for bullishness on financial assets, and equities specifically. You’ve heard this same argument again and again for decades now. Invariably these seers and pundits are referring to money market fund balances in their so-called analysis. Over the last few decades we have seen record money market fund balances be created. But the fact is that if you go back to the early 1980’s and move forward, there has virtually never been a down year for money fund balances straight through to 2002. Point-to-point from 2002 through 2006, money fund balances experienced no growth.

But you also know that during this exact period, we experienced both a cyclical bull market in equities and a coincident multi-generational residential real estate bubble of incredible proportion. It’s no wonder money fund balances did not grow as it‘s simply not often that we get a double-barreled asset class movement, as was the case from ‘02 through ‘06. But off to the races with growth in 2007 and beyond has once again been seen in money funds until just recently, punctuated by the safety trade movement of last year and early this. Of course once Bernanke and friends moved the Fed Funds rate to academic zero, dragging money fund rates with it, mom and pop investors have dutifully moved into bond funds in record amounts. Just as the Fed wanted, but ultimately to investor’s detriment when generational low interest rates are no more.

The point is that the theoretical “mountain” of money has been on a path of growth for three decades now. The mountain simply grows ever higher and analysts again and again point to it in each cycle as a rationale for yet ever higher financial asset prices (of course completely disregarding the issue of valuation in the investment decision making process using this logic). Let’s face it, if the mountain of money argument held significant water, we would never have experienced two instances in the same decade where the equity market was cut in half. The so-called mountain of money in money funds should have cushioned such an extreme historical outcome… but it did not.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

4. Oil rises above $83 amid strong China demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices jumped above $83 a barrel Monday in Asia amid signs of strong Chinese demand for crude and rebel attacks on Nigerian supplies...

China said Sunday that oil imports rose 14 percent last year to a record high in December, part of a 56 percent surge in overall imports last month. The better than expected Chinese figures helped investors brush off Friday's disappointing U.S. jobless report, which showed the economy lost 85,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate was steady at 10 percent....

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 2.28 cents to $2.22 a gallon and gasoline gained 1.97 cents to $2.18 a gallon. Natural gas futures were down 16.4 cents to $5.59.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[kaybea]

28. Help me out here. Is that price enough to justify the current prices of heating oil?

Are we being gouged because of the frigid temps?

[ozymandius]

5. AP IMPACT: Road projects don't help unemployment

WASHINGTON – Ten months into President Barack Obama's first economic stimulus plan, a surge in spending on roads and bridges has had no effect on local unemployment and only barely helped the beleaguered construction industry, an Associated Press analysis has found.

Spend a lot or spend nothing at all, it didn't matter, the AP analysis showed: Local unemployment rates rose and fell regardless of how much stimulus money Washington poured out for transportation, raising questions about Obama's argument that more road money would address an "urgent need to accelerate job growth."
...

Construction spending would be a key part of the Jobs for Main Street Act, a $75 billion second stimulus to revive the nation's lethargic unemployment rate and improve the dismal job market for construction workers. The House approved the bill 217-212 last month after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., worked the floor for an hour; the Senate is expected to consider it later in January.

AP's analysis, which was reviewed by independent economists at five universities, showed that strategy hasn't affected unemployment rates so far. And there's concern it won't work the second time. For its analysis, the AP examined the effects of road and bridge spending in communities on local unemployment; it did not try to measure results of the broader aid that also was in the first stimulus like tax cuts, unemployment benefits or money for states.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100111/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stimulus_unemployment

[ozymandius]

8. Job loss a 'setback:' Obama economics adviser

WASHINGTON (AFP) – President Barack Obama's top economic adviser acknowledged Sunday that continuing job losses pose "somewhat of a setback" to US economic recovery efforts.

Christina Romer, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said she still expected the US economy to show steady growth this year....

Romer's comments followed the release of jobs figures on Friday that showed 85,000 jobs were lost in December, after a net gain of 4,000 jobs the previous month -- the first positive month after 22 consecutive months of losses. ...

Analysts said the numbers were consistent with a gradually healing economy. But with 10 percent unemployment, some have raised the specter of a "double dip" recession once the effects of economic stimulus measures fade.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100110/ts_alt_afp/useconomyunemployment

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. Consistant numbers?

A increase (in unemployment) during a healing economy, normally comes from those trying to get back into the job market. Higher job losses as workers fall into the extended unemployed bracket is not "consistent" :grr:

[tclambert]

57. How can it have no effect at all?

Somehow the pluses and minuses perfectly balance out to zero? Not bloody likely. Somebody needs to check the assumptions the economists made up.

[ozymandius]

6. China banks lend 600 billion yuan in first week: report

BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese banks made about 600 billion yuan ($88 billion) in new loans in the first week of 2010, the Economic Information Daily reported on Monday.

This surge in loans, nearly twice as much as the monthly average in the last half of 2009, could prompt the central bank to step up credit controls, it added. ...

Chinese banks traditionally rush to book loans in January to boost their full-year interest earnings, and part of their haste now probably also stems from fears that officials will soon slam shut the door on lending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100111/bs_nm/us_china_economy_loans

[Tansy_Gold]

55. WTO Panel to Look Into US Tariffs on Chinese Tires

from pampango elsewhere in LBN:

Source: ABC News

The World Trade Organization will launch an investigation into American import taxes on Chinese tires at a meeting of trade diplomats next week, according to a statement Monday. The dispute focuses on a three-year tariff approved in September by President Barack Obama, which aims to slow China's rapid export growth and protect American jobs in the tire sector.

The WTO included China's complaint in an agenda published for a meeting on Jan. 19 of its dispute body. Washington delayed Beijing's request last month for the establishment of an investigative panel, but cannot do so again under WTO rules.

The panel will be asked to evaluate whether the U.S. tariffs violate rules governing trade among the WTO's 153 members. Trade cases often take years to resolve, but can result in the WTO authorizing retaliatory sanctions. Obama ordered the higher tire tariffs for three years, including a 35 percent additional charge in the first year. It comes on top of a regular 4 percent tariff.

The two countries are also squabbling over American imports of Chinese steel pipes. Last month, the U.S. government imposed new duties on pipes mainly used in the oil and gas industries, affecting about $2.8 billion worth of Chinese exports. Beijing immediately criticized the decision, but has yet to initiate a WTO case.

Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9528745


**************

Tansy's multi-part essay question is this --
What's the likelihood that this will go in China's favor, thus destroying yet another segment of the US workforce/economy?
Is there anything the Obomber admin can do to fight it?
Is there any way to extricate the US from the WTO?
and anything else you folks wanna throw into the discussion?

Because isn't this really what it's all going to boil down to? We will no longer have jobs/an economy here?



TG

[ozymandius]

7. Lawmaker presses NY Fed on AIG payment details

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A U.S. lawmaker said on Sunday he is seeking more information from the New York Federal Reserve Bank about its controversial emails on insurer AIG's bailout, saying he was shocked that the disclosures were never brought to then-bank president Timothy Geithner's attention.

U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, the California Republican who last week distributed email exchanges over AIG's decision not to disclose specific payments to banks in a December 24, 2008 Securities and Exchange Commission filing, released a letter from the New York Fed responding to the controversy....

In the $180 billion AIG bailout engineered by the New York Fed, the Federal Reserve Board in Washington and the U.S. Treasury in September 2008, the New York Fed created a special purpose vehicle known as Maiden Lane III, which liquidated credit default swaps sold by AIG to banks for around $62 billion in taxpayer funds. ...

"It's a staggering admission by Mr. Baxter that he felt strong enough that Secretary Geithner wanted him to limit AIG's disclosures on counterparty payments to the SEC that he says he didn't even feel a need to bring the details to his boss' attention," Issa said in a statement. "This letter raises more questions on the inner-workings of the New York Fed during one of the most pivotal periods in our nation's history."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100111/pl_nm/us_aig_lawmaker

---

While I do not agree that the AIG fiasco is among "one of the most pivotal periods in our nation's history," I do agree with Issa's request for inquiry. This brings to mind the question that Howard Baker once asked, "What did the president know and when did he know it?" That same sort of question needs to be posed about Timothy Geithner.

[ozymandius]

12. NYPost: Time for Tim to go!

Posted at The Big Picture

The NY Post has a good indictment on Tim Geithner. They quote a known troublemaker named Josh Rosner:

“We’ve seen an ongoing effort by Tim Geithner at the Federal Reserve and Treasury to do the public’s work out of the public’s view in ways that benefit the banking interest ahead of the public’s,” said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at Graham Fisher & Co. “It was under Tim’s direction that we were given stress tests that were less than transparent and less than credible,” he added.

Read more: Geithner’s overstayed his welcome: Wall St. honchos

Somehow, the financial media can’t get their arms around this one in terms of editorial positions. How long do you think it will take the Times or the WSJ to call for Tim’s impeachment?

And don’t even talk to me about President Obama. The child president has not a clue about financial anything. Notice how the White House was flummoxed by the latest AIG revelations. And both Rahm Immanuel and Larry Summers are said to be eyeing the emergency escape pods. My bet is that Larry goes back to the Street because he his seen as damaged goods in corporate world due to Harvard derivatives fiasco.

more at top link...

[Demeter]

14. From his lips to God's Ears

Wouldn't it be a great start to the new year if all the gangsters were swept out of government?

Take out Rahm, Summers, Geithner, hang up the phone when Rubin calls, but who would appoint the New Deal Cabinet? Not thick-head Obama! Maybe Volker could get a word in...

[ozymandius]

9. World markets rise amid China export recovery

HONG KONG – World stock markets rose Monday as news of a surprisingly strong rebound in China's exports last month offset a dismal U.S. jobs report.

Hong Kong and Shanghai markets led Asia after the Chinese government announced exports jumped nearly 18 percent in December after 13 months of declines, buoying confidence in Asia's prospects as Western economies struggle. ...

Early in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.6 percent, Germany's DAX gained 0.5 percent and France's CAC-40 was up 1 percent. Wall Street futures pointed to a higher open in the U.S. Monday. S&P futures were up 5.2 points, or 0.4 percent, at 1,146.50.

In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng benchmark climbed 114.77 points, or 0.5 percent, to 22,411.52 and Shanghai's main index added 16.75 points, or 0.5 percent, to 3,212.75. Chinese markets were also supported by news regulators were moving ahead with plans for stock futures and other trading products that could make the market more attractive to investors.

Japan's stock market was closed for a holiday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100111/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

10. Main Street to Wall Street: We don't buy the rally

...After being key players in bull runs of the past, small-time investors have not only stopped buying, they're selling. The question for the new year: If the man on the street doesn't jump back in, will stocks continue to defy gravity?

So far, the market's comeback is almost entirely due to buying by professional investors at hedge funds, pension funds, banks and other institutions. ...

Mutual funds are a good proxy for such investors because more than three-quarters of fund assets are held by individuals, both directly and through retirement plans.
Small investors yanked a net $14 billion from stock mutual funds from the beginning of last year through mid-December. That's on top of a net $245 billion withdrawn in 2008, according to TrimTabs.

The firm says most of $592 billion taken out of money market mutual funds last year has gone into bond and bond-hybrid funds instead.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100108/ap_on_bi_ge/us_shunning_stocks

[Demeter]

15. Don't Forget the US Govt. and the PPT!

We own HOW MUCH of GM and AIG and CITI and.....?

And what would an audit of the Federal Reserve's books show?

The plot thickens.

[ozymandius]

22. It would show that the Fed owns a huge pile of feces.

So says Calculated Risk:

Fed MBS Purchases: 90% Complete

From the Atlanta Fed:

The agency-backed MBS purchase program is ... on schedule, with more than $1.1 trillion purchased by year-end.

The Fed purchased a net total of $9.3 billion of agency-backed MBS through the week of December 30. This brings its total purchases up to $1.115 trillion, and by the end of the first quarter 2010 the Fed will purchase $1.25 trillion (thus, it is 89% complete).

The Fed purchased an additional $12 billion net in MBS over the last week, bringing the total to $1.127 trillion or just over 90% complete.

Mortgage Backed Securities. <<cough>> We all know how well that worked out for the originators of these stinking piles of doodoo.

[ozymandius]

11. Dubai’s First Foreclosure May Open Floodgates in Worst Market

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s housing rout sent prices down 52 percent in the past year, prompting some homeowners to abandon their cars and mortgage payments and flee the country. Not one received a foreclosure notice.

Until now.

Barclays Plc won the sheikdom’s first foreclosure cases in court, clearing the way for lenders holding about $16 billion of Dubai home loans to take action when borrowers don’t pay. Islamic lender Tamweel PJSC, the emirate’s biggest mortgage bank, has several of its own foreclosure claims pending and estimates about 3 percent of its mortgages are in default. ...

The successful foreclosures by London-based Barclays may open the floodgates in Dubai’s property market, which went from the world’s best in 2008 to the worst after credit dried up and speculators who had fueled price increases left the market, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Moody’s estimated in September that 12 percent of the 27,000 residential mortgages in the sheikdom would default within 12 to 18 months. ...

Both lenders and developers in the United Arab Emirates have tried to stem rising defaults through out-of-court settlements with distressed customers after falling prices left buyers with mortgages worth more than their properties. That has helped minimize the amount of bad debt on their balance sheets and kept repossessed houses off a market that’s already suffering from too much supply. Provisions for bad loans in the U.A.E. surged 68 percent to 32 billion dirhams ($8.7 billion) as of November, compared with a year earlier.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4TwfiSIfjdM&pos=10

[Demeter]

13. Happy Monday, Ozy! 5th Rec

The govmint is shocked, SHOCKED, that still more people lost jobs last month.

We are seeing voodoo economics, the sequel.

The notion that "trends" are the same as hard data, that one needn't deal with the facts, since the "magic of the marketplace" will take care of it all, is simply ridiculous.

I was at a small party of senior citizens, who were confessing that their children and grandchildren, all college graduates from prestigious places, had been unemployed for a year.

These aren't the people who will be out building rest stops or repaving US 23. These are your BASE, Mr. President, and they expected better. They deserved better. the country deserves better.

Construction jobs were a good way to soak up extra unskilled, young men and employ them. It was hard work, but it ws honest, and they learned skills. When marginal rates of unemployment were soft, this was the sure-fire solution

Today's unemployment is pandemic. All ages, classes, skill sets are affected.

Obama really doesn't get it. He HAS to become another FDR. Anything less is fraud and abuse of the nation.

[ozymandius]

18. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Every word you typed resonates with a story that too many of my friends can tell. I know people who are approaching their prime income earning years - yet they are marginalized: too old either to swing a pickaxe or lift a shovel full of dirt.

When one extrapolates the lines then the future is a bleak one. We stand to lose a generation of people who currently stand a little more than twenty years away from retirement age. We have had a lost decade already under Bush. Obama needs to understand this. Re-inflating boondoggle bubbles like real estate will not secure prosperity.

[Demeter]

16. Excellent Review of Krugman's "Depression Economics"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7435830

[girl gone mad]

17. Morning Ozy! Here's one that shouldn't be missed:

I read Sorkin's Too Big to Fail, and while I found this particular tale to be odd and absurd, I never pondered the full implications as Smith has:

The Most Stunning (and Uncommented on) Revelation in Too Big Too Fail
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/the-most-stunning-and-uncommented-on-revelation-in-too-big-too-fail.html">Naked Capitalism

(snip)

So the story thus far is that AIG is a great big mess that will bring everyone down if it goes. Got that. Geithner accepts that picture, persuades Bernanke. AIG is on the verge of bankruptcy, according to Sorkin, mere “minutes away” (p. 399). The Fed agrees to extend a $14 billion loan to get it through the trading day but it wants collateral. Collateral? From a broke company? How is that going to happen?

Then we get this bit:

Wilmustad understandably wondered how they were supposed to come up with $14 billion in the next several minutes. Then it dawned on them: the unofficial vaults. The bankers ran downstairs and found a room with a lock and a cluster of cabinets containing bonds – tens of billions of dollars’ worth, dating mostly from the Greenberg era. They began rifling through the cabinets, picking through fistfuls of securities that they guessed had gone untouched for years. In an electronic age, the idea of keeping bonds on hand was a disconcerting but welcome throwback. (p. 400)

WTF? This is a company about to go out of business, then it suddenly remembers it has a secret stash….worth at least 1/6 of the initial government rescue commitment? $14 billion was only what they coughed up to satisfy the Fed. How much more was left in those cabinets?

And more important, WHO SUPPOSEDLY OWNED THIS PAPER? This wasn’t held by the subsidiaries; otherwise, AIG would not have been able to pledge it to the Fed. And if it was a parent company holding, why wasn’t it repoed or sold earlier? What entity took the semi-annual interest payments? Take the $14 billion we know about, and assume a 5% interest rate. That’s $700 million. Where did it go? Was it reinvested? Disbursed?

The language further suggests that bonds in this secret trove, while mainly accumulated under Greenberg, had more recent additions, presumably under Martin Sullivan, perhaps Wilmustad. This “unofficial vaults” designation strongly implies this was a secret, off balance sheet cache that threw off a hefty amount of annual income by virtue of its staggering size. That would mean it could be used by the CEO at his sole discretion, for anything from bribes to unreported executive payments that might then be used to open foreign bank accounts or pay for personal or business expenses.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/the-most-stunning-and-uncommented-on-revelation-in-too-big-too-fail.html">more..

[ozymandius]

19. This is a "must read" post.

It is warranted to assemble a phalanx of forensic accountants, if such a number exists, to scour these hidden assets. Really - it is just the sensible thing to do.

[Demeter]

20. I'm Speechless. I'll Let My Signature Call Speak for Me

FRSP!

[Dr.Phool]

24. Do you mind if I borrow your artwork?

I'm starting a blog, and would like to set up a printable gift certificate for free FRSP's.

[Demeter]

44. It's Not Mine, and It's Free and Legal to Borrow

help yourself, Doc!

[Dr.Phool]

45. Thanks.

[bread_and_roses]

30. I feel like an idiot but what is FRSP? (n/t)

[Dr.Phool]

35. French Revolution Severance Packages!

[willing dwarf]

38. FRSP -- that's rich!

Too funny!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Dr.Phool]

40. Give the credit to Demeter

She coined the phrase.

[Demeter]

43. It's the Historically Famous

French Revolution Severance Package!

[DemReadingDU]

34. secret stash????!!!!

:wtf:


How much more is in the vaults? Why are the taxpayers bailing out the banksters, go get the billions in the secret stashes!

[willing dwarf]

37. Was it for this Eliot Spitzer was removed?

One of the side comments on this post at Naked Capitalism was the observation that once they got rid of Eliot Spitzer the thugs on Wall Street were able to pull off their scam. Is that how most of you see this? Is it likely that one person, Spitzer, stood between the banks and their big scam? Did they have this in the works and just had to get him out of the way, or perhaps once the ball of bank defaults and bailouts started rolling,opportunists began to see how they scam it, and so without a watchdog there, it became easy to pick the low hanging fruit?

[Po_d Mainiac]

41. ES was one of the very few willing to heap some hurt on the banksters.

Whether he would have entered the game soon enough will be a topic for years. That he chose a very bad time to be caught with his pants down, is not subject to debate.

[tclambert]

58. This sounds like the beginning of a Diehard movie.

Hans Gruber's youngest brother, Igor, initiates a complex, multi-leveled series of terrorist attacks to cover up his real caper, robbing AIG's secret file cabinets.

[ozymandius]

21. Financial-crisis commission sets witness list for first hearings

From the LA Times' Money & Company

...The bipartisan commission late Sunday released the complete witness list for the hearings, to be held Wednesday and Thursday in Washington. As previously announced, the sessions will lead off on Wednesday with four of the nation’s top bankers testifying: Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, John Mack of Morgan Stanley and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America.

If the questioning of the bankers turns into a snorefest, the second panel on Wednesday has the potential to be interesting: The committee will hear from Michael Mayo, an analyst at Calyon Securities who is famous for his negative views of the banking industry; J. Kyle Bass, a Dallas hedge fund manager who made a fortune in 2007 by betting on the implosion of subprime mortgages; and Peter J. Solomon, a New York investment banker who has been critical of the TARP bank bailout program.

On Thursday the hearings will lead off with testimony from U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric Holder; Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.; and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Schapiro. State regulators including Denise Voigt Crawford, who heads the North American Securities Administrators Assn., will testify later that day.

Not on the witness list for these inaugural hearings: former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

Word from inside says that Paulson and Greenspan will eventually testify. Bernanke and Geithner have already been questioned privately.

more at link...

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. Angelides has a budget of mere pocket change

Up against a clan of fraudsters that have bottomless pockets.

As we know, money talks.......everything else walks. There will not be a call for the FRSP unless there are a couple whistleblowers behind the drapes

YMMV

[Demeter]

46. Bernanke and Geithner have already been questioned privately??!!

Our PUBLIC OFFICIALS doing PUBLIC WORK as a PUBLIC SERVICE had better be questioned ON THE RECORD FOR THE PUBLIC'S INFORMATION!!!

[Dr.Phool]

23. Good morning folks.

I needs coffee.

I hate it when my bullshit detector goes off before my first cup. The Weather Channel (where you used to get the weather) was reporting on record Wall Street bonuses, and the former Chairman of Citi (Rubin?) was telling them they've got to knock this shit off. I just caught snippets. Need more coffee.

It should be a busy week. A class action lawsuit a few of us have been working on for a few months should finally get filed this week. I'm starting a blog which should wind up being a cross between Denninger, Automatic Earth, and the Rude Pundit.

It lookd like it's going to be one of those days where I should just skip the coffee, and head straight for the bloody marys.

Now, it's off to the dog park with White Fang.

[DemReadingDU]

27. Let us know when you start up your blog!

Sounds like we'll enjoy reading it
:)


Good luck with the lawsuit. What's it about?

We've sued our village, important public documents are missing. They are making us out to be the jerks saying the documents never existed, so they don't have to provide them. But we know they used to be there.

:wtf:

[Dr.Phool]

29. I can't comment on the suit until it's filed.

It's going to involve billions of $$$. We had to find a law firm with really deep pockets to finance it on contingency. We finally got one a couple of weeks ago. We've already set up an informational website that will be taking donations to pay for our out of pocket expenses. We just haven't gone public with it yet.

[DemReadingDU]

32. oh ok. understand

Best of luck as the suit proceeds, keep us posted

[Demeter]

48. John Travolta: A Civil Action

all about the Woburn arsenic pits. Intensely fascinating story.

[Demeter]

47. Who Should Knock What Off?

Too many pronouns without referents, Doc.

[Dr.Phool]

53. I was still pouring my coffee.

When I heard a CNBC talking head on TWC say that the former CEO of CITI was telling Wall Street to ease up on the bonuses. I didn't catch a name, but I'm assuming it was Rubin.

[DemReadingDU]

25. David Walker: Growing Deficit Threatens Our Future

1/11/10 David Walker: Growing Deficit Threatens Our Future
David Walker, former comptroller general of the U.S. and former head of the Government Accountability Office, says drastic decisions have yet to be made about spending cuts and taxes that would realign the federal budget. Walker tells Deborah Amos that the country's financial condition is much worse than advertised, and the growing deficit threatens our future. Walker is the author of Comeback America: Turning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility.

audio appx 8 minutes
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122436097


oops, edit for correct link

[Tansy_Gold]

31. That would put us in the same category as Iceland, if for slightly

different reasons, non?



Tansy Gold, practicing her French in anticipation of FRSPs. . . . .

[Demeter]

50. That's Debatable

Iceland's bind is caused by the people who walked off with the money--catch the crooks, strip their ass(ets), and the problem should be finished.

Our bind is that the crooks run the place. We'd need a revolution to fix it.


The Icelanders petitioned their government, and the president listened! Do you know how this country would be if the same happened here?

[Demeter]

49. The Threatening Deficit Is in Employment

Fix that, and the tax cheating by guys like Geithner and those with Swiss bank accounts, and the corporate welfare/warfare, and the deficit will take care of itself.

[DemReadingDU]

36. U.S. Postponed the Great Depression, Not Prevented It

click link for video

1/11/10 U.S. Postponed the Great Depression, Not Prevented It, Says Trend Forecaster Celente

A week into the New Year, the consensus among the Wall Street "experts" is the economy and the financial markets will continue to improve in 2010. Unlike last year, when we entered January with so much uncertainty, today pretty much everyone agrees the worst is behind us.

Gerald Celente does not agree.

Celente, the director of the Trends Research Institute, who's been tracking trends for 30 years, thinks 2010 brings with it the Great Depression we narrowly avoided last year. Celente's been making this prediction for several years, and as we know was nearly proved right.

Extraordinary government intervention helped prove him wrong, something he didn't anticipate. "We never thought we'd be buying companies like AIG, we never thought we'd own parts of General Motors," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "The government's never done these things before."

Celente believes the bailouts have just postponed a depression -- not prevented one: "The hand may change but the game doesn't change."

Celente says the recent signs of economic recovery are nothing more than a boost based on "a stimulus economy." Once those measures are pulled back and interest rates rise, the economy will once again tank.

It's not all gloom and doom. Eventually, Celente predicts, American ingenuity and innovation will drive a recovery. It's a topic we discuss more in a forthcoming clip.

click link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-postponed-the-great-depression-not-prevented-it-says-trend-forecaster-celente-401119.html?tickers=AIG,^GSPC,C,FRE,FNM,MTLQQ.PK,^DJI&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[DemReadingDU]

42. Survivor, America: "It's Only Going to Get Worse," Gerald Celente Says

click link for video

1/11/10 Survivor, America: "It's Only Going to Get Worse," Gerald Celente Says

"It's only going to get worse," is the sobering forecast of Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Research Institute.

As discussed in a prior segment, Celente believes the "bailout bubble" is going to burst and the U.S. economy will slip back into recession, if not worse, in 2010.
Like all forecasters, Celente isn't always right but he has predicted a number of major events, as detailed here.

So if Celente is right about 2010, what will that mean for the average American? Celente says we're going back to basics, making due with less and adopting the following mantra: "Waste not, want not. Use it up wear it out. Make it due, due without."

On his Website, Celente offers the following predictions, further discussed in the accompanying video:

* Neo-Survivalism: "In 2010, survivalism will go mainstream," Celente writes. "Unemployed or fearing it, foreclosed or nearing it, pensions lost and savings gone, all sorts of folk who once believed in the system have lost their faith. Motivated not by worst-case scenario fears but by do-or-die necessity, the new non-believers, unwilling to go under or live on the streets, will devise ingenious stratagems to beat the system, get off the grid (as much as possible), and stay under the radar."
* Depression Uplift: "As times get tougher and money gets scarcer, one of the hottest new money-making, mood-changing, influence-shaping trends of the century will soon be born; we forecast that this will be "Elegance" in its many manifestations," he opines. "The trend will begin with fashion and spread through all the creative arts, as the need for beauty trumps the thrill of the thuggish. A strong, do-it-yourself aspect will make up for reduced discretionary income, as personal effort provides the means for affordable sophistication."

click link for video
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/survivor-america-%22it%27s-only-going-to-get-worse%22-gerald-celente-says-401199.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,DIA,GLD,SLV,UUP&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

[Demeter]

51. Not Only That

The actions insure that it will be longer, deeper and much more damaging. The little people can only die--the corporations can be destroyed and gutted.

[Ghost Dog]

39. BTW, here's an update (seems, on youtube this was pulled)

Food for your soul:

http://vodpod.com/watch/841589-da-pacem-domine-monastic-gregorian-chant

(Eh, (dead) link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3778955#3780206)

[Demeter]

52. Six Months To Live? (James Howard Kunstler)

http://worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=items&id=7469:six-months-to-live-james-howard-kunstler


Jan. 11, 2010 -- The economy that is. Especially the part that consists of swapping paper certificates. That's the buzz I've gotten the first two weeks of 2010, and forgive me for not presenting a sheaf of charts and graphs to make the case. Just about everybody else yakking about these thing on the Web provides plenty of statistical analysis: Mish, The Automatic Earth, Chris Martenson, Zero Hedge, The Baseline Scenario.... They're all well worth visiting.

Bank bonus numbers are due out any day now. The revolt that I expected around the release of these numbers may come from a different place than I had imagined earlier -- not from whatever remains of "normal" working people, but from the thought leaders and middling agents in administration (including the prosecutors) who, for one reason or another, have been diverting their attention, or watching and waiting, or making excuses for a couple of years now. When Frank Rich of The New York Times starts calling for Robert Rubin's head, then maybe the great groaning tramp steamer of media opinion is turning in the water and charting a new course for the port of reality.

Anyway, the grotesque carnival of rackets and lies that the US economy has become -- held together with the duct tape of stimulus cash, gamed accounting, mortgage subsidies, carry trades, TBTF bailouts, TARPS, TALFS, shell-game BLS reports, and MSNBC "green shoots" cheerleading -- gives every sign of tipping into collapse at a moment's notice. There are just too many obvious things that can go wrong, and that means there are many less obvious, hidden things that can go wrong, and isn't it tragically foolish to tempt Murphy's Law, since it operates so well without any help from us? The call is even going out lately for criminal prosecution of the current Treasury Secretary, Mr. Geithner, for engineering AIG's $14 billion credit default swap payoff to Goldman Sachs as part of the AIG bailout. Okay then, why not Paulson, Bernanke, Blankfein...?

MORE AT LINK

[Tansy_Gold]

54. And of course we all know that much of this has been discussed

for a very long time here at SMW.

Seriously, any thinking person who isn't following Ozy's thread isn't, well, THINKING.

:yourock: Ozy, BIG TIME




Tansy Gold, who rocked a little at the rock show this week-end

[Demeter]

60. As Long As She Didn't Get Stoned

[ozymandius]

61. I hope you had a great time rockin' out this weekend.

Thank you for the props! :toast:

[ozymandius]

59. See this?

The pathetic truth at the center of the housing fiasco is that prices have to come down further if any normal wage-earner will ever afford to buy a house again in America on anything like normal terms. Anyway, sooner or later the banking system is going to have to upchuck the "phantom inventory" of un-foreclosed-on houses, and sell them off for whatever they can get, or else a lot of banks are going to go out of business.

The banks have had fair warning about this for awhile. Many of the largest are acting on this knowledge. Why else would a bank accept large amounts of capital, lend only paltry amounts one super safe bets and horde the rest?