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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:34 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 4
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 4, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 3, 2010

Dow... 10,396.76 -9.22 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,280.68 -0.11 (-0.00%)
S&P 500... 1,118.79 +0.48 (+0.04%)
Gold future... 1,144 +6.60 (+0.58%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.62 +0.01 (+0.39%)
30-Year Bond 4.58 +0.02 (+0.35%)




U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES


Market Conditions During Trading Hours



GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$



Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Today's Reports
02/27 08:30 Initial Claims
Briefing.com 515K
Consensus 470K
Prior 495K

08:30 Continuing Claims 02/20
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4617K

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4
Briefing.com 6.4%
Consensus 6.3%
Prior 6.2%

08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q4
Briefing.com -4.4%
Consensus -4.5%
Prior -4.4%

10:00 Factory Orders Jan
Briefing.com 2.7%
Consensus 1.8%
Prior 1.0%

10:00 Pending Home Sales Jan
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus 1.0%
Prior 1.0%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
32. Gosh, only 469,000 new claims this week!
They're popping champagne in GD-P!

The economy is saved!
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
40. Continuing claims at 4.5 million, better than the expected 4.6 million.
My problem is I don't know what that means exactly. Are people finding jobs or falling off the unemployment insurance rolls? Or some combination of both? One number I never hear reported is how many new hires there are.

Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out with the monthly unemployment numbers. Those numbers won't give a perfectly valid measurement, either. I look at that one like a bathroom scale that always gives you a 5 pound discount (love that kind of scale)--it's not the actual number that matters so much as the trend. Unfortunately, you can't see the trend instantly. We won't believe that unemployment is going down until we see declines for several months in a row.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. shadow Stats Calculated Current Real Unemployment at 21%
Edited on Thu Mar-04-10 05:25 PM by Demeter
?hl=1" border="0" alt="Chart of U.S. Unemployment"

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. Oil falls to near $80 after 2-day jump
SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $80 a barrel Thursday in Asia after a two-day jump fueled by growing investor optimism that global crude demand is recovering. ...

Oil prices have traded in the $70s for most of the last eight months, rising above $80 several times only to fall back amid concerns that crude demand in developed countries is lagging behind an overall economic recovery.

U.S. inventory data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration was mixed, with crude and gasoline supplies rising and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, falling. ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil fell 1.67 cents to $2.077 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.56 cents to $2.232 a gallon. Natural gas was up 0.4 cent at $4.761 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:50 AM
Response to Original message
3. World markets fall as Fed report, Greece weigh
HONG KONG – Global stock markets fell Thursday as the U.S. central bank signaled recovery in the world's largest economy would be slow and anxiety about Greece's debt crisis weighed on investors.

It was Asia's first decline after four straight days of gains. The euro, meanwhile, eased following a big advance overnight after Greece announced new measures to help put its finances in order. Oil prices slipped to near $80 a barrel. ...

European markets were down in early trade, with British and French markets losing about 0.5 percent and Germany's main index shedding 0.7 percent. Wall Street futures augured a lower open in the U.S. S&P futures were off 2.1 points, or 0.2 percent, at 1,116.50. ...

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average fell 107.42, or 1.1 percent, to 10,145.72.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 301.01, or 1.4 percent, to 20,575.78 and South Korea's index was down 4.24, or 0.3 percent, to 1,618.20.

Shanghai's market dived 2.4 percent as investors took profits ahead of Friday's opening of the national legislature. Uncertainty surrounding new policies expected to be announced during the National People's Congress fostered caution.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100304/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
4. Stocks end mixed as Fed points to slow recovery
NEW YORK – Early gains in stocks unraveled Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that the economic recovery will be slow.

Stocks ended mixed after the Fed's announcement that economic activity has improved in nine of its 12 districts but that the gains are "modest."

The report dampened enthusiasm that followed an upbeat report on services industries and more takeover news. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 9 points. For a second day, the Dow erased its losses for 2010 before surrendering the gains by the close. ...

Separately, a report on the labor market came in as expected. Payroll company ADP said employers cut 20,000 jobs last month.

The ADP report is seen an early indicator of the government's closely watched monthly employment report, though there are often wide variations. The Labor Department is expected to report on Friday that the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent last month and that employers cut 50,000 jobs. The struggling labor market is still one of the biggest concerns for investors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100303/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:01 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Highlights from the Fed's latest economic survey
BOSTON
(This region covers Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and part of Connecticut.)

Economic conditions showed improvement. Most manufacturers said demand strengthened, with makers of semiconductors and related equipment reporting "sharp snapbacks." Merchants reported mixed sales results and are cautious about the outlook. Home and condo sales picked up, helped in part by the government's homebuyer tax credit. Signs of modest improvements in commercial real-estate activity reported.

NEW YORK
(This region covers New York and parts of Connecticut and New Jersey.)

The economy flashed further signs of strengthening, despite some slowing in the housing market. Many manufacturers planned to increase employment and capital spending in the months ahead. Retailers mostly reported sales ahead of expectations, although some said February's severe snowstorms did slow business. Tourism activity in New York City picked up before the bad weather but was crimped when the storms hit. Both the residential housing and the commercial real-estate markets softened. Banks reported weaker demand for all types of loans and rising delinquency rates mostly for consumer loans. ...

ATLANTA
(This region covers Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.)

Economic activity was mixed. Retailers said sales were lower than expected, although tourism-related spending increased. Miami saw strong demand for hotel bookings due to the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl. New Orleans got a boost from Mardi Gras. Factories noted some improvements in new orders and the decline in production eased. New-home sales softened, with the weakness most pronounced in Georgia.

CHICAGO
(This region covers Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and parts of Illinois and Indiana.)

Economic activity improved at a moderate pace. Consumer spending increased slightly, although auto sales were weak. Factory activity gradually improved and orders increased, mostly reflecting the restocking of shrunken inventories. Demand from Asia boosted exports, but with growth in China expected to slow, companies predicted export activity would moderate as well. Construction activity stayed weak. In agriculture, corn prices fell amid last fall's record harvest. Hog and cattle prices rose, while dairy prices flattened. ...

SAN FRANCISCO
(This region covers California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Hawaii and Alaska.)

Economic activity increased modestly. Retail sales firmed, with discount chains and department stores reporting sales increases. New car sales slipped. Factory activity was mixed. Demand grew for semiconductors. New orders for commercial airplanes and parts was sluggish, but backlogs of unfilled orders kept production steady. The pace of home sales was mixed, and the supply of unsold homes is high. Prices rose a bit. Commercial real-estate activity weakened. Sales grew for agricultural products, but oil drilling and capital spending were held down by weak global demand.

Summary link

Federal Reserve Beige Book link
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:22 AM
Response to Reply #6
16. What time frame does this report cover? One month? One quarter?
How big a factor did the weather play?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #16
35. I Believe I Heard it Was Quarterly
AND like any other government statistic, I wouldn't trust it as far as I could throw it, even though the Fed is supposedly a private consortium of private banks.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 05:55 AM
Response to Original message
5. Fed proposes limits on credit card penalty fees
NEW YORK – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday proposed strict limits on penalty fees and other charges that credit card companies can slap on customers for missteps such as late payments or going over credit limits.

The proposal outlines rules that would take effect on Aug. 22 as the third stage of credit card legislation signed by President Barack Obama last May. The majority of the new law took effect last week, and earlier provisions kicked in last August.

Among the biggest changes in the Fed proposal is capping penalty fees to no more than the dollar amount of the violation.

"A consumer who exceeds the credit limit by $5 should not be penalized to the same degree as a consumer who exceeds the limit by $500," the proposal states. If the rule is adopted, spending $5 over the credit limit would could incur no more than a $5 penalty.

Currently, most major credit card companies charge over-the-limit fees that average $39, even when the amount spent beyond the limit is just a few dollars. Consumer advocates have complained this can turn a $5 coffee into one that costs $44.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100304/ap_on_bi_ge/us_federal_reserve_credit_card_rules
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:26 AM
Response to Reply #5
17. Let me guess . . . the credit card companies oppose this.
And their lobbyists are screaming at congresspersons about it. Luckily, the lobbyists for credit card customers will fight back. Oh, wait, we don't have lobbyists because we can't afford them. Seems like there ought to be something in the Constitution to guarantee equal representation by lobbyists, since K street is the most influential branch of government.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:09 AM
Response to Original message
7. Emerging-Market Stocks Snap Four-Day Rally as Greek Bonds Slip
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks fell, snapping the longest rally in two months, on concern the global economic recovery may falter. Greek bonds slipped as the government started selling 10-year securities.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.6 percent at 10:32 a.m. in London, halting a four-day rally that was the longest since Jan. 6. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks declined 0.2 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. Copper and zinc fell for the first time in five days and oil retreated.

With Greece’s financial crisis posing the biggest threat to the euro in its 11-year history, the European Central Bank meets today to decide whether to pare stimulus measures that helped revive growth. The Federal Reserve said yesterday that the U.S. expansion was “modest” in January and February. China’s Industrial Bank Co. said loan growth will halve this year as the government orders lenders to curb borrowing. ...

Greek bonds fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year security up 7 basis points to 6.05 percent. The difference in yield, or spread, between the securities and benchmark German bunds widened 7 basis points to 293 basis points. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt rose for the first day this week, climbing 11 basis points to 305.5, according to CMA DataVision.

Greece started selling new securities as more than 20 billion euros of debt is scheduled for repayment in April and May, while Prime Minister George Papandreou tries to reduce Europe’s biggest budget deficit by cutting salaries for civil servants and increasing taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYm5Z6Z__Lhc&pos=3
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:12 AM
Response to Original message
8. ‘Volcker Rule’ Draft Signals Obama Wants to Ease Market Impact
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration’s legislative draft of the so-called Volcker Rule incorporated exemptions that may ease the impact on financial markets should it be enacted.

President Barack Obama yesterday sent Congress the five- page proposal to ban proprietary trading and block mergers that give banks more than a 10 percent market share, as measured by liabilities other than insured deposits. It also would bar banks from owning or investing in hedge funds and private equity firms.

The rule, which is aimed at reducing the risk of another financial crisis, exempts mergers that exceed the market-share limit in cases when a firm acquires a failing bank with regulators’ approval. Also left out are trading in Treasury and agency securities, including debt issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ...

The proposal also would tighten supervision, and capital and liquidity requirements, on non-bank companies engaged in proprietary trading.

The president’s proposal would bar banks from owning or controlling hedge funds and private-equity firms. Banks also would be prohibited from acting as a prime broker to hedge funds they advise.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHT_LKrSCQ1c&pos=5
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:30 AM
Response to Reply #8
18. Nothing specifically about Goldman Sachs and burning at the stake?
To pull off all the (excrement-related word of your choice) that Goldman Sachs did leading up to and during the recession, I'm convinced witchcraft must have been involved. Has anyone checked to see if Goldman Sachs floats?
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Goldman Sachs stock (symbol GS) was $53.31 in Nov., 2008; now $157.72
The highest I could find it at in recent years was $235.92. It seems wrong that a company so integral to causing the recession should end up a big winner from the recession.
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:21 AM
Response to Original message
9. Debt: 03/02/2010 12,519,423,725,485.39 (UP 11,887,262,624.35) (Tue)
(Up some. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat -- used to true, now it just goes up for a while. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,024,978,491,495.22 + 4,494,445,233,990.17
UP 51,419,206.42 + UP 11,835,843,417.93

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,875,998 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,532.2.
A family of three owes $121,596.6. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 7,923,986,807.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,282,657,871.33.
The average for the last 28 days would be 5,659,990,576.43.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 103 reports in 153 days of FY2010 averaging 5.92B$ per report, 3.98B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,055 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 18.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/02/2010 12,519,423,725,485.39 BHO (UP 1,892,546,676,572.31 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,609,594,721,973.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,454,261,918,433.76 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******

184,539,717,136.12 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4291499&mesg_id=4291543
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #9
44. Debt: 03/03/2010 12,508,944,297,560.56 (DOWN 10,479,427,924.83) (Wed)
(Up a bit. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,026,656,594,435.31 + 4,482,287,703,125.25
UP 1,678,102,940.09 + DOWN 12,157,530,864.92

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,884,638 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,497.14.
A family of three owes $121,491.42. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 7,745,162,135.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,163,441,423.79.
The average for the last 28 days would be 5,532,258,668.34.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 104 reports in 154 days of FY2010 averaging 5.76B$ per report, 3.89B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,054 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/03/2010 12,508,944,297,560.56 BHO (UP 1,882,067,248,647.48 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,599,115,294,048.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,419,981,054,076.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********

185,849,803,805.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4293197&mesg_id=4293224
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. Thanks......
For keeping the Numbers...:hi:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:23 AM
Response to Original message
10. Consumer Agency Within Fed Seen as Victory for Banks (Update1)
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- For consumer advocates, housing a new agency to protect Americans from financial-product abuse within the Federal Reserve would be a defeat after lobbying for an independent body. For banks, it would represent a victory.

Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, called a Senate plan to house the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency at the Fed “a joke.” Shielding consumers from harmful financial products is “the most conspicuous failure by the Fed,” Frank said in an interview yesterday.

Banks say placing the agency with the Fed alleviates their concern that an independent entity would ignore the health of the financial system. Consumer advocates say it’s a mistake because the Fed didn’t succeed in curbing abuses during the subprime lending boom that contributed to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. ...

Consumer advocates say the Fed didn’t use its authority to put in place stronger protections for home buyers as the subprime mortgage market began to expand earlier this decade. The Fed has the broadest authority of any regulator to write rules on lending practices and disclosure.

The Fed’s specific enforcement authority is limited to 800 state member banks. It wields much more clout as the supervisor of bank holding companies, such as Bank of America Corp., some of which had subprime mortgage lending subsidiaries. ...

“We have the track record of them failing to take action when they should have and potentially could have averted this foreclosure crisis,” said John Taylor, president and chief executive officer of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition in Washington, a group of 600 organizations promoting fair lending.

The action the Fed does take against banks is often kept secret.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ax0g_Lb2rqqo&



Sure, it's a joke. Does anyone honestly think that a consumer protection agency would be free to act at all if Alan Greenscam were still Fed chairman? Bernanke only acts when threatened with losing his power.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:28 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Why a Consumer Protection Agency Is Necessary
From Ritholtz:

What a splendid idea: A Consumer Finance Protection Agency whose sole purpose is to provide a set of standards for the finance industry when it comes to marketing their products to otherwise naive US consumers.

The original plan was to have a standard form for major finance purchases — mortgages, cars, revolving credit. This would allow consumers to 1) Understand the amount of money the financing would cost them; 2) Determine if they could afford this product; 3) Allow them to shop competitively for the best rates.

Good idea, right? Considering that we people made the Snuggie, the Sham-Ease, and Hair-in-a-Can all best sellers, perhaps a little impulse control is a good idea. More accurate cost disclosures of credit will also help. Americans need help figuring out exactly what all this stuff costs when you include finance charges. We are, after all, a country of math-phobic shopaholic shit junkies. Anything that can help us figure out whether we can afford our bigger purchases — like cars and houses — should be a no-brainer.

Unfortunately, the banking lobby, in conjunction with the auto dealers lobby, had other ideas. A simple mandate to have all mortgages shown compared to a plain vanilla 30 year fixed was thwarted. It was to be similar to the FDA nutrition disclosures on the side of your kid’s cereal box. Who, could possibly object to that?


http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/consumer-protection-is-necessary/

Read the whole thing. Ritholtz is on a tear.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:42 AM
Response to Original message
12. Good morning.
:donut: :donut: :donut:

I hope you have a really nice, easy day.

:hi:
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:04 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. You too, ozy.
Don't worry, I feel better now. :hi:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #12
28. Morning Ozy!
16F when I came in off the route....but the snowdrops seem all recovered and chipper.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #12
30. Morning Marketeers.....
:donut: and lurkers. Got into work early so this will be a quick drive by post. Our new hatchet ma..er I mean superintendent is firing/making folks leave at an alarming rate and replacing them with his own folks. Our district business manager left last Friday. The man has been here over 10 years and has been pretty good at his job from what I heard. Wonder if he is going to bring some teachers too? Union membership is climbing to its highest level in years-I recruited 2 yesterday.

Our school was accused of cheating on the TAKS test last year so we didn't get the test until the last minute and all the proctors and State folks were tripping over each other in the hallways and class rooms yesterday when our kids took the test. And then we got word that Union members at an elementary school were given a section of the test in advance by a consultant that services 50 schools. They turned it the info to the Union (smart thinking) and it is a big brouhaha. THe school district is still holding our teachers bonus money from last year-so we are watching what they do to this school. If they cheated last year, the teacher got their bonus. Will they have to pay it back if they did cheat (that has a direct bearing on whether or not our teachers get their measly bonus). Boy, what a can of worms.

Hope you day goes better.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.
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Juneboarder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #30
38. Good Morning Anne
What a situation. I'd be biting my nails to the bit wondering what was going to happen next.

Well, actually I'm biting my nails anyways. I was supposed to get paid last Friday and still have yet to get a paycheck. It's kinda scary when all you can do is charge to a credit card and not pay cash for items like gas and groceries; but hey! Things will turn around right... THEY promise us this.

Another worry is that my work is unable to pay for our health insurance. If we don't pay them by tomorrow, our plan is officially cancelled. Now, I'm young and see the doctor maybe once every two years; but my co-worker is 33 weeks pregnant and dealing with Braxton Hicks contractions right now due to stressing over whether or not she'll have coverage. If her coverage gets dropped she cannot get new insurance due to the fact that she has a... "pre-existing condition". This is pure BS and it makes me sick to my stomach that these issues I see at my office are issues that a lot of people see across the country. As well, these problems might be miniscule to others' problems, which scares me.

Best of luck to you that things turn out positive!

:hi:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #38
45. How dreadful for you.......
and your co-worker, how horrible. This is one more reason for health care reform. Even though I get paid regularly, I have an emergency fund to keep the wolves at bay. It sure smooths out the bumps,but I wish I had even more more in the kitty these days. Workers should not have to worry about this petty stuff.
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 06:55 AM
Response to Original message
13. So, Everybody Ready for Another Round Of the Parade Of Bullshit Today?
Edited on Thu Mar-04-10 07:01 AM by TheWatcher
The Jobs Number with either suck (Well, a manipulated suck), or they will be a manipulated lie, but that probably won't matter.

I'm beginning to think the best way to get the Dow back to ATH's would be to go ahead and unleash the unemployment apocalypse anyway, perhaps up to 30%.

That should be good enough for at least 6-7000 Dow Points, although the hospitals would probably also be filled with Goldman Sachs insiders with Cardiac Problems due to the extreme levels of erotic arousal over such numbers, so there are trade-offs. (They really have to pace themselves, you know?)

The Futures have been diving after the close virtually every day for awhile now, but that doesn't seem to matter either.

And then there's Asia.

SILLY Asia.

Asia is all in a tiff because they probably believe in that reality crap, but not us.

Took a breather for about 16 hours, but the Pump Machines have the futures back to nearly even, and the Amerikan Dream is right back on track.

I guess those who truly have bought into this delusional fantasy of Recovery, and blindly believe and cling to every piece of Propaganda like an infant clinging to it's favorite toy still think we're all nuts and need to be medicated and put out of society for our own good, and theirs.

And why not? Hey, let's face it, many of the true believers who have been relatively unaffected by the sting of unemployment, foreclosure, bankruptcy, or any of the other quaint pitfalls the rest of the proles have had to endure are still living it upon Infinite Fiat and Infinite Interest, and feeling good and engorging on The Best Of What's Still Around.

Not to mention that intense Ninth Season of American Idol.

Did You HEAR what SIMON said to ELLEN?

::GASP::

The Culture Of Idiocracy seems to get bailed out everytime, no matter what these financial terrorists do. Then, after the initial collapse and Tsunami washes away more of the Working Class, The Propaganda Telescreens Light up, signal all clear, and the unaffected march on right back to the same Truman Show Tune as before.

Yes, those still drunk on the Kool-Aid of "Recovery", who have been so used to being in the Marching Band Of Superior Indifference, keep playing the same tune from the same sheet music that TPTB have given them to play for so long now.

And The Band Plays On.

However, "The Band" might want to give a thought at what will happen to them if they get demoted to the status of jobless prole, when the Music Stops and it's THEM who can't find a chair to sit in.

Surely Those Who Provide The Faith And Credit will have a solution to their plight.

SURELY they will make good on their Pretty Talk.

Well, in the interest of full disclosure and conditioning, I'm more than happy to provide a preview of what to expect for these new found Recruits Of Unexpected Reality.

NOTHING.

You're On Your Own.

You've been FORGOTTEN.

WHAT? How could that be? All that rhetoric, all those schemes and programs, and proposals, and pretty platitudes. SURELY they will make good on them. SURELY it's all true.

They PROMISED Us a Recovery. They PROMISED Us it was here. And it's getting stronger by the day.

They PROMISED.

Well, there's some Good news and some Bad News.

The Good News is that All of the above will still keep coming out of the Telescreens everyday, just as sure as the sun rises, ever dependable, ever reliable.

The BAD NEWS is it's all BULLSHIT.

The BAD NEWS is, we've all been HAD.

Because these men Who Would be Gods who keep bailing out the Culture Of Idiocracy in order to preserve the Ponzi Mechanics of Their Oligarchy DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOU, and they have no plans to help you once you can't find a chair.

And they CERTAINLY don't have any plans to FIX the system that has been so good to them.

That's like asking a Bank Robber to kindly put the money back into the bank after he's done with it.

They have NO PLANS to fix ANY of the Problems that keep reflating the Bubbles, and the subsequent catastrophes that happen when they Burst.

Au' Contraire.

They're going to try to create even BIGGER ONES. With equally Bigger Results.

So the True Believers And Defenders Of the Faith (No Offense to Judas Priest, you understand. I REALLY Loved that album), will find out, to their horror, that they just don't fit into the plan, once they're not in the Band anymore.

After all, TPTB have got far too much to deal with as it is. not only do they have to keep their own Self Serving Agendas Alive and their Profits endlessly peaking at your expense, they have to keep what's left of the Marching Band Marching On to the Same Old Tune, so they don't WAKE UP and spoil the fun.

They don't have time to deal with these Prole problems.

And so The Blind Faithers will come to a rather startling Epiphany.

They find they are out of the game.

They find they are no longer on the Board.

They don't count.

You're in the Third World Now, Baby.

Hope you survive the experience.

Because if they think these jackals are going to do anything for ANYONE'S benefit other than THEMSELVES, then They MUST believe in The American Dream.

Because They Are ASLEEP
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:33 AM
Response to Reply #13
19. I was saying pretty much the same thing to the BF over dinner last night
It's like this deal with the Central Falls teachers. And the vouchers. And the charter schools. Don't you understand? They don't WANT us to be educated. Some of us, if educated, might start thinking.

They want us ignorant, they want us poor, they want us desperate. We are easy to control that way. We will do whatever they want us to. Fight a war. Become gladiators for their amusement.

The only thing they "allow" us to have without limit is religion. They know it doesn't hurt them, because religion has ultimately always been on the side of the powerful (after all, the gods are the MOST powerful, non?) And they can enlist/ensnare a few influential religious leaders to peddle the powerful's message AND collect even more of the serfs'
cash. As long as the promised reward is in the next life, They don't care.

Oh, and one other thing they "allow" us to have in abundance --


Hope.



:rofl:




Tansy Gold, wondering where she's heard THAT one before.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #19
31. I've been saying that for nearly 40 years.
When Nixon and the states started cutting education budgets. They were deliberately trying to dumb down the population. And guess what? It worked.

For a good look at the people's critical thinking skills, put on a wetsuit and take a meander through GD-P. Don't post, otherwise you'll need one of those outfits from "The Hurt Locker". I've been lied to by almost every politician I've met in my life, and somehow people think that one funded by Wall Street is going to act any different.

I've been playing musical phones all morning with a couple of my colleagues in our class action suit. The question being if I should go around and address some of our local DEC's to raise funds and enlist help for petitions. Since we're running a non-partisan effort, I should probably go after repukes also. But, I pointed out, a major flaw in the idea is that both parties in this state are heavily funded by Progress Energy. Like, about a half-million on each side, just to the parties. Plus EVERY candidate. They're not going to bite the hand that feeds them both. Just like Goldman Sachs.

They agreed with me. We're all about the same age. One is a former rocket scientist. The other a Cal Tech graduate in high energy physics, and a former State Legislator from NH. The others say that the Dems will support us. I said "bullshit, they're not going to fuck with their money supply".

Besides, I'm not really the guy they want to see addressing them. Five or six years ago, I was considered one of their leaders. Now, I'm a heretic. And I know exactly how useless they are. That's why I'm not there anymore.

Fuck it! Today's an off day. I survived the wife's wrath last night when I had a new synthesizer delivered. We have tickets to see The Moody Blues tonight. I'm meeting a friend for lunch, and there's a fresh bottle of vodka in the bar.

But, for now, White Fang says get away from that computer, and play with me.


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skoalyman Donating Member (751 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. My My doc they almost tied you to the rails
glad you made it out alive lol


First spark of a jobs recovery My butt

more like

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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #19
34. While they might think that keeping us in that condition
with no hope for the future might keep us obedient, history teaches a far different lesson. Even during the golden age of the aristocrats, the poor and desperate were always hard on aristocratic travelers and the people they counted up on to take the taxes to enable them to continue being aristocrats. The peaceful era of the divine right to rule wasn't all that peaceful, in other words, and aristocrats all had food tasters for a reason.

Robber barons all want the same thing and find out it's not that great when they get it. Fortunately for all of us, it rarely lasts long.

The booboisie is being taught a few very hard lessons now and I doubt they'll suffer the effects either peacefully or gladly. We are living in interesting times and will continue to do so until the dog and pony show in Washington becomes sufficiently alarmed to realize they can't paste a bad system together any longer and discard it in favor of the system that worked.

Just hold on to your hats and food stamps, folks, because the wild ride has just started.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:36 AM
Response to Reply #13
26. It's a Ponzi world

It's all a Ponzi...banking, housing, college, healthcare, prescriptions, pensions, 401(k)s, IRAs, malls. Everything, everywhere.

And one day, it's going to implode, and we will all be like Bernie Madoff victims.



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hamerfan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:06 AM
Response to Original message
15. Love the 'toon today, Ozy.
Thanks and good morning!
I think there's more than a bit of truth in it, too.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Not just a bit of truth, hamerfan
It's the whole core of the silliness.

If "they" pump a bunch of money into "the economy" it will circulate (see cartoon) and everyone will have jobs again. But if no ADDITIONAL "money" is created through productive jobs, all the "stimulus" will trickle off (off, not down) to some other economy.

But there are fools folks like Krugman who think more and more and more stimulus is what we need, when that's really not the case.


Tansy Gold, getting ready for another early morning trip to Lowe's
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #20
29. If the stimulus went to create job programs

like FDR did with the WPA, CCC, TVA, money would circulate.

But when the corporations offshored the major industry...autos, textiles, clothing, shoes, appliances, electronics, there is not much left to be productive.
:(

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Loge23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #15
27. Robber Baron's return
In today's aptly titled "Wonder Land" column (Bring Back the Robber Barons, Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2010), by Dan Henninger, the writer argues for the creation of more "market entrepreneurs" as opposed to what Henninger sees as "political entrepreneurs". You see, "political entrepreneurs", according to the folks in Wonder Land, are entrepreneurs that benefit from publicly funded projects such as green technology (his example). His examples for "market entrepreneurs" included such economic powerhouse drivers as Fed Ex and Wal-Mart (you can't make this stuff up, these are his examples).
Henninger argues for the return of the Robber Barons - which with justifiable foresight from this Loge the lefty may be a good thing. After all, we're in the Second Age already of the Robber Barons. If we have even more worker bees silently shoveling cash into the tidy furnaces of the wealthy - in exchange for the $12/hr HD jobs for MBA's (Demeter, yesterday) - than maybe, just maybe we will also see a new beginning for unions, worker's rights, and a revival of the middle class, full of the brains and brawn that the Barons need for their "innovative" ventures.
But, alas, as Henninger notes: "we live in a world of rising competitors" - many of whom directly benefited from the now acceptable practice of the great American Robber Barons employing foreign labor to make the goods that they proudly present to the disenfranchised American people. In Wonder Land, this all works out well.
Sorry - can't post the link. It's in today's WSJ Section 1, back pages.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #27
36. They Are Crazy--That Never Works Without Violence
and since there are way more deprived than advantaged, it will not end well for the proudly rich by robbery.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
22. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.005 Change +0.028 (+0.04%)

Opening Comment 03.04

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2010-03-04-0538-Opening_Comment_03_04.html

The Euro, and certainly currencies in general, have received a much needed boost following the news on Wednesday of Greece’s fresh austerity plan of Eur4.8B.

The EU, ECB, and rating agencies have all welcomed the new plan and are seemingly encouraged with the prospects of the mitigation of a potential disaster. Nevertheless, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and it remains to be seen whether the relief rally on the back of this news can be sustained.

Interestingly enough, we have been seeing some reversals in many of the beaten down crosses, with notable bounces in the normally uncorrelated Gbp/Aud and Gbp/Jpy crosses on Wednesday. Generally, the move higher in Gbp/Aud is reflective of a rise in risk aversion, while the push higher in the Yen cross reflects increased investor risk appetite. So here too, it remains to be seen how things play out. However, we could see a situation where both crosses find a way of rallying on the back of alternative themes, specifically relating to local UK fundamentals.

Data released thus far on the day includes a slightly better than expected Australian trade balance, but this has hardly factored into price action, with the single currency underperforming on the day. Meanwhile, in Japan, BOJ Noda has come out saying that extremely easy monetary policy is one of the conditions to “surmount deflation and support demand.”

Looking ahead, Eurozone GDP (0.1% expected) is due at 10:00GMT, followed by the more highly anticipated event risk in the form of the respective Bank of England (0.50% unchanged expected; 200B QE unchanged expected) and European Central Bank (1.00% unchanged expected) rate decisions at 12:00GMT and 12:45GMT respectively. Whiles rates are expected to remain on hold in both the UK and Eurozone, market participants will be watching closely for any changes in UK asset purchases, or a change in the outlook from ECB President Trichet at his post rate decision press conference at 13:30GMT. US equity futures and commodities are marginally offered heading into European trade.

...more...


Dollar Retraces Gains as Sentiment Improves, Policy Speculation Eases

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-03-04-0126-Dollar_Retraces_Gains_as_Sentiment.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

Risk appetite has slowly recovered and the initial shock of the Federal Reserve’s surprise discount rate hike has diminished this past week. Naturally, the combined influence these two developments would have on the US dollar would further weaken the benchmark currency. However, there is a difference between establishing a new trend and moderation of an existing one. So far, this evolution falls into the latter category. In the end, the greenback has seen its value as a safe haven and an investment currency generally appreciate this year. From a yield standpoint, the increase in the rate that the central bank charges to depository institutions for loans doesn’t have the same effect as a hike to the Fed Funds rate. Nonetheless, it is a definable step in the policy authorities’ gradual shift towards tightening its belt on still-extraordinary levels of stimulus. Furthermore central bank commentary has suggested the usual target rate would not likely be as effective at normalizing policy. Given the dramatic increase in bank reserves held at the Fed (funds that were doled out in an effort to increase loans to consumers and small businesses but where effectively used as a backstop), adjusting rates on this front could represent a better move to control monetary policy. Ultimately, this is a concern for the dollar that will develop over time. The more pressing concern for the concern is its status as a safe haven. On this front, Greece has made further concessions to work down its deficit with a 4.8 billion euro cut. Yet, this only quenches short-term concerns. There is still crisis potential from the different corners of the market.



...more...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 07:57 AM
Response to Original message
23. At Brown, Spotlight on the President’s Role at a Bank (GS Boardmember)
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/02/business/02brown.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Across this quiet quadrangle, behind the wrought iron gates and beyond University Hall, lurks a bogeyman of Wall Street.

It has come to this: Goldman Sachs, whose place at the center of so many concentric circles of power has thrust it into the grassy knoll realm of conspiracy theories, is the talk of Brown University.

To be precise, it is Goldman’s ties to Ruth J. Simmons, Brown’s beloved president, that has some students and alumni buzzing.

The trouble began in December, when Ms. Simmons’s long tenure on Goldman’s board — which, until then, it seems, had gone virtually unnoticed at Brown — suddenly came to the fore. Dr. Simmons, it turned out, was among the 10 people who decided how big those Goldman bonuses would be — including the $9 million payout for the bank’s chairman and chief executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein.

The Bears — the ones at Brown, not on Wall Street — roared.

It is a remarkable reversal for Dr. Simmons, 64, and, indeed, for the stature of corporate directorships. A spot on a board, particularly at a moneymaker like Goldman, used to be considered a plum job. The demands were relatively modest compared with the rewards. Dr. Simmons, for instance, was paid $323,539 last year for her work on the board, and will soon leave her position at Goldman with stock that is currently worth about $4.3 million. That was on top of her salary at Brown, which was $576,000 this year.

An e-mail message sent among a group of alumni showed surprise that Dr. Simmons was deciding Mr. Blankfein’s bonus, saying, “Who knew Brown had this much power?”

Indeed, corporate America has a long history of stocking boards with people plucked from academia and elsewhere. Roger S. Berlind, the theatrical producer, sat on the board of Lehman Brothers. Gen. Tommy R. Franks sat on the board of Bank of America. And Beverly Sills, the operatic soprano, served on the board of American Express.

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
24. OT: Money will not keep people "safe"
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/03/local/la-me-chelsea-king4-2010mar04

Poway, a self-styled "City in the Country," is the kind of place where families move to avoid crime. The schools are among the best in the county. Narrow roads loop around the hills and gated developments that attract some of the county's wealthiest residents, including baseball Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and football star LaDainian Tomlinson.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
25. ooo!!! ooo!!! Tell the lady in the cartoon I have a better idea!!!
She can hire people and give them a place to live and a store to shop from and everything.

She just pays them in a currency tied solely to her company. They could call them.....chits or something.

And if she did it right, and charged a lot of company money for items they could buy cheaper elsewhere, then the workers would be forced to stay with her and work for next to nothing....

American Capitalism, ain't it great?
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #25
47. I owe my soul to the company store....
wasn't that Tennesee Earnie Ford?
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
33. 11 O'Clock Tick Tock
Edited on Thu Mar-04-10 11:00 AM by Roland99
Whole lotta nothin' goin' on

Dow 10,403 +7 +0.06%
Nasdaq 2,279 -2 -0.08%
S&P 500 1,118 -0 -0.03%
GlobalDow 1,930 -8 -0.43%
Gold 1,127 -16 -1.42%
Oil 80.12 -0.75 -0.93%


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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #33
37. Not for Lack of Trying
That poor little engine--a grade too far!
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skoalyman Donating Member (751 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #37
41. choo choo
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DoBotherMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-04-10 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
39. k&r n/t
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