STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 8, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 5, 2010

Dow... 10,566.20 +122.06 (+1.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,326.35 +34.04 (+1.48%)
S&P 500... 1,138.70 +15.73 (+1.40%)
Gold future... 1,138 +4.40 (+0.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.68 +0.08 (+2.08%)
30-Year Bond 4.64 +0.09 (+1.91%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $82, extending Friday's gains

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $82 a barrel Monday in Asia, extending gains from Friday amid signs the global economy may be improving. ...

Investors were cheered by the Labor Department's February jobs report Friday, which showed the U.S. economy shed a less-than-expected 36,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent. ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil rose 1.67 cents to $2.1141 a gallon, and gasoline gained 1.49 cents to $2.2859 a gallon. Natural gas was down 6.2 cents at $4.531 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[CatholicEdHead]

34. Gas went up 10 cents/gal here this past weekend

I am sure all the "planned shutdown to summer blends" excuse will also be pulled out.

[ozymandius]

3. Volcker: higher inflation target idea "nonsense"

BERLIN (Reuters) – The idea, floated by IMF economists, that central banks could raise their inflation targets is nonsense, White House economic adviser Paul Volcker said in a German newspaper interview published on Monday.

A research paper by International Monetary Fund staff last month raised the idea that policymakers might consider raising the 2 percent inflation target chosen by many central banks to 4 percent. ...

Turning to the U.S. financial sector, Volcker said U.S. banks were not yet healthy. "The repair work is still running. It has just begun." ...

In January, President Barack Obama stunned markets with a three-part proposal to limit banks' proprietary trading, get them out of the hedge fund and private equity business, and limit their future growth through a new market share cap.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100308/pl_nm/us_financial_volcker

[ozymandius]

4. Senators wrestle with Fed bank oversight issues

...In a retreat from a bold proposal to streamline a patchwork bank regulatory system, lawmakers were considering keeping supervision of companies such as Citigroup and Bank of at the Fed, as Reuters reported in February.

Other, more expansive options were also being considered, with Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd expected to unveil legislation as soon as this week after months of negotiations with fellow Democrats and Republicans.

Regulatory reform is a top domestic priority of President Barack Obama, who wants to crack down on banks and capital markets following the worst financial crisis in decades.

Dodd in November called the Fed's past performance as a banking supervisor and consumer protection watchdog an "abysmal failure." When he made that remark, he proposed consolidating bank supervision into a super-cop for the industry to be called the Financial Institutions Regulatory Administration, or FIRA.

But the FIRA proposal has unraveled as Dodd has discussed a range of compromises with Republicans and moved closer to embracing regulatory reforms watered down from a sweeping bill approved in December by the U.S. House of Representatives.

The FIRA would have streamlined the bank oversight duties of the Fed, the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and other agencies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100308/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation_fed

[ozymandius]

5. What an idiot! Such a sorry excuse for a Senator.

I wonder what our world would look like if FDR insisted on compromising with Republicans, in the spirit of bipartisanship. Dodd is incompetent, at best, and quite possibly apathetic about bringing any substantive change to our failed oversight system.

Let's leave oversight with the Federal Reserve, an institution that has outright refused to divulge essential information about its charges, because that would just be the thing to do. :sarcasm:

[Demeter]

7. Dodd Needs to Look to the Future==HIS Future, on K Street

Although why he thinks they would hire him is beyond me. His "contacts" will all get booted out of office, and he's not smart enough to contribute anything else.

[ozymandius]

25. "the Fed is far and away the most captured, the most asleep at the switch of the banking regulators"

Banksters Win Again, Edition 1,477,536

The Financial Times give us yet another sorry update in the bankster vs. the general public saga, and the banksters continue to gain ground. Their latest about-to-be-cinched victory is beating back a pro-reform idea sponsored by Senator Dodd (yes, even he can have the occasional “Nixon Goes to China” moment). Dodd had wanted bank regulation to be stripped from the Fed and housed in a new agency.

While that model can be argued to have led to some fumbled passes in the UK during the early stages of the crisis (most notably, the Northern Rock run), many observers contend that the flaw was the failure to hash out certain operational details, rather than the structure being inherently unworkable (in general, any organization structure is going to have particular shortcomings; you therefore need to have other mechanisms in place to compensate for them).

Perhaps most important in the case of the US, the Fed is far and away the most captured, the most asleep at the switch of the banking regulators. Keeping them in charge of bank regulation is like reappointing a fire commissioner who let half the town burn down.

And the “compromise” settled upon is to allow the banks most in need of tough supervision, ones with more than $100 billion in assets (which amounts to the biggest 23, and thus includes all the 19 TARP recipients) to remain the wards of the supine Fed. Yet these are the ones that pose the biggest systemic risks. Heck of a job, Brownie.

[Demeter]

6. Nicholas Taleb Blames Financial Crisis on Aspie Finance Analysts?

http://tselseth.blogspot.com/2010/03/moron-reuters-columnist-blames.html#comments

I don't know how to respond to this abject stupidity.

http://in.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idINIndia-45896420100204?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0

Did Asperger's help cause the crisis?: James Saft

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (Reuters) - Did the financial system blow up because it was built and largely operated by people with many of the characteristics of a mild form of autism called Asperger's syndrome?

As explanations for the crisis go, it's on the extreme side but forms an interesting counterpoint to the "blame the looting bankers" story line.

People with Asperger's, a mild form of autism, are characterized by, among other things, a deficit of "theory of mind," essentially the ability to understand that other people have different beliefs or knowledge than themselves. Nicholas Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has written that a lack of theory of mind left many in positions of responsibility without the ability to conceive of and guard against black swans, which are rare, high-impact and hard to predict events.

There were, after all, a remarkable number of people blaming "hundred-year storms" for the crisis, which was at least in substantial part caused by an over-reliance on risk management controls and models that proved to be far too narrow. There was a love of data and a refusal to conceive of the data being not wrong, but incomplete, which led many to cling to their models of how the world was working even as it fell around them. Remember all of those reassurances that problems in subprime were "contained"?

"Note that the very same people who attack me, on grounds of political correctness, for discussing Asperger as a condition not compatible with risk-bearing, and its dangers to society, would be opposed to using a person with highly impaired eyesight as the driver of a school bus," Taleb writes in his typically provocative style.

"All I am saying is that just as I read Milton, Homer, Taha Husain, and Borges (who were blind) but would prefer to not have them drive me on the A-4 motorway, I elect to use tools made by engineers but prefer to have society's risks managed by someone who is not affected with risk-blindness."

As someone with a family member with Asperger's, I think there is a lot of truth to what Taleb says, though perhaps he expresses himself too gruffly. A love of data and models and an unwillingness to engage with ambiguity that can often mean missing the big picture are characteristic of both Asperger's and of the global financial system circa 2007. This is a far different thing from blaming the crisis on people with Asperger's, which Taleb does not.

Actually, and here I am fishing in shallower waters than Taleb, there are elements of a typical Asperger's personality which are extremely useful in guarding against manias and bubbles.

THE EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES

People with Asperger's Syndrome are largely immune to social pressures; they often do not recognize them, or if they do, dismiss them as silly. They can be, in many ways, like the child in the Hans Christian Andersen story "The Emperor's New Clothes." In the story the emperor is sold a new suit made of a fabric that supposedly will be invisible to anyone who is not fit for the position they hold. The suit is a fraud, but the emperor, afraid of being one himself, pretends to be able to see it. Everyone else plays along until the emperor meets a child who calls it as he sees it and pierces the illusion.

Typical people, in order to make the numberless decisions they are forced to make with only limited data, rely heavily on taking their clues from what other people are doing -- following the herd. This has a certain efficiency but, as people place a heavy weight on what others are doing, leaves them open to be swept up in manias or bubbles.

This is true for individuals buying houses in 2005 because "everyone knows they will only go up" and it is true for fund managers making "momentum" investments in dotcom stocks. Fashion, for most people, is a powerful faculty-numbing force; just leaf through some old magazines and check out what people were wearing round about 1971.

For people on the Asperger's spectrum this is far less true; regardless of what people are talking about at cocktail parties, they won't believe that we can all grow rich by buying up one another's houses, nor will they take assurances from "authorities" as the final word. Having less fear of looking stupid than the rest of us, they will stand by what they perceive. They are also, at least in my experience, far less likely than the average person to hold a position cynically; because it benefits them rather than because they believe it.

That might not be the only type of person you want in a financial system, but those are some pretty valuable characteristics for a fund manger or banking regulator.

Taylor Selseth, Asperger's sufferer, may not know, so Demeter will try:

THE CROOKS ON WALL STREET WILL HIDE BEHIND ANY EXCUSE TO CONTINUE THEIR FRAUDULENT, IMMORAL PILLAGE OF THE WORLD. AS LONG AS THEY GET THE MONEY, THEY DON'T CARE WHAT HAPPENS TO ANYBODY ELSE.

THERE IS NOTHING ABOUT AUTISM IN THIS BEHAVIOR, AND EVERYTHING ABOUT NARCISSISTIC PSYCHOPATHY. THEY ARE ROBBER BARONS, AND THEY KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THEY ARE DOING. THEY JUST DON'T CARE.

[Demeter]

8. I thought you all might like this==Hope it comes through

http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/2010/03/07/

[ozymandius]

10. How lovely!

Very strict banking regulations, indeed! Our Eighth Amendment would prevent that punishment from happening. Although - I would love to see the Banksters squirm from that sort of proposal.

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. Nice work on the Weekend post!! n/t

[Demeter]

27. Love the Guillotine

but truly, I haven't the space for it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. Use it for an avatar? I'll work on an image that gives it a "Citi Square" look

[Demeter]

40. Thank you!

And thanks for the expert info on moose (meeses?)

[Roland99]

41. hehe

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 03/04/2010 12,545,490,013,032.29 (UP 36,545,715,471.73) (Thu)

(Up a lot. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,061,072,722,591.94 + 4,484,417,290,440.35
UP 34,416,128,156.63 + UP 2,129,587,315.10

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,893,278 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,614.32.
A family of three owes $121,842.96. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 9,953,127,150.41.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,635,418,100.27.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,109,376,536.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 105 reports in 155 days of FY2010 averaging 6.05B$ per report, 4.10B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,053 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/04/2010 12,545,490,013,032.29 BHO (UP 1,918,612,964,119.21 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,635,661,009,520.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,496,879,151,451.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********

220,322,509,249.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4294815&mesg_id=4294835

[Festivito]

46. Debt: 03/05/2010 12,544,703,929,352.55 (DOWN 786,083,679.74) (Fri)

(Down a littly tiny bit. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,060,998,180,435.07 + 4,483,705,748,917.48
DOWN 74,542,156.87 + DOWN 711,541,522.87

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,901,918 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,610.64.
A family of three owes $121,831.91. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 9,959,663,660.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,639,775,773.42.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,114,045,471.52.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 106 reports in 156 days of FY2010 averaging 5.99B$ per report, 4.07B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,052 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/05/2010 12,544,703,929,352.55 BHO (UP 1,917,826,880,439.47 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,634,874,925,840.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,485,444,538,024.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----

212,982,873,906.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4297641&mesg_id=4297657

[ozymandius]

11. Vineyard Defaults Surge as Lost Land Values Undermine Napa Wine

....

As many as 10 wineries and vineyards in Napa will change hands in distressed sales or foreclosures this year and next, up from none in 2008, according to Silicon Valley Bank. In a bank survey of vintners, 7 percent called their finances “very weak” or “on life support.”

“We have 250 vintner clients saying this downturn is the worst in 20 years,” Bill Stevens, manager of the bank’s wine division in St. Helena, California, said in an interview. “Anybody who was late to the party won’t have staying power.”

Land values in Napa, home to about 400 producers, have fallen 15 percent from the 2007 peak, driven in part by slumping demand for high-end wine, said Robert Nicholson, principal at International Wine Associates, a consulting and financing firm in Healdsburg, California. The decline makes it harder for owners to refinance mortgages, especially if the property is worth less than the loan. ...

Sales of super-premium bottles priced more than $15 declined 10 percent last year, and those over $30, defined as ultra-premium, fell at least 15 percent, according to Rabobank Nederland NV, the Utrecht, Netherlands-based bank that finances agriculture businesses. Napa and neighboring Sonoma are the top U.S. producers of premium wine, the bank said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a07OY80yg4Rs

[MattSh]

12. Happy International Women's Day to all SWM women!

Yeah, it's a BIG day over here in Europe.

What, you're not familiar with it? More info...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Women's_Day

[Demeter]

14. Only One Day?

Here we get the entire month of March.

[AnneD]

48. I have a theory about this....

people tend to commemorate to try to make up for the bad things they did or continue to do, instead of treating folks as they should. If we listened to MLK and took his message to heart, we wouldn't need to have a day for him, or Lincoln, or even Christ. If you show thanks to the women it your life by making a meal for her, taking the kids to school one day-or like my hubby occasionally does-take the dogs out when he comes home from work so I can have 10 minutes more in bed. Now that is plenty of women's day celebrating for me.

[ozymandius]

13. New Normal Becomes Old Normal as Exports Propel U.S. Recovery

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- The “new mix” is out to topple the “new normal” as the paradigm for America’s economic future.

The 5.9 percent annualized surge in fourth-quarter growth -- the fastest since 2003 -- was powered more by exports and business investment than the traditional drivers of consumption and housing. This new mix of demand will boost the economy by 3.7 percent in 2010 and pave the way for 3.5 percent annual average increases thereafter, said Joseph Carson, an economist at AllianceBernstein in New York, who coined the phrase.

“What’s going to change is how we generate growth, not how fast we can grow,” Carson said in an interview. “That’s how I come up with a new mix rather than a new normal.”

The outcome of the debate has ramifications for policy makers and investors. El-Erian and his colleagues at Pimco predict the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate near zero through 2010, and they warn that stock prices may be too high, based on their outlook for the economy. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1,138.70 Friday, up 68 percent since March 9, 2009. ...

President Barack Obama is perhaps the biggest proponent of the new-mix model, arguing the U.S. needs to shift the locus of its growth away from the bubble-driven consumption of the past toward exports and investment. He plans to increase government- backed export financing for small businesses by 50 percent, to $6 billion a year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aD4bfK4chwcU

[Demeter]

15. I wouldn't count on business investment

unless it's for "going out of business" signage and ads. And moving vans/freighters for overseas outsourcing.

[FarCenter]

38. Overseas outsourcing usually does not involve moving vans

Either existing overseas business are contracted to produce the goods/services or new facilities are built overseas for the outsourced production.

Facilities in the US are typically scrapped, rather than moved overseas, although there may be some critical systems that are moved.

[ozymandius]

16. Why capitalism fails (an oldie but goodie)

Since the global financial system started unraveling in dramatic fashion two years ago, distinguished economists have suffered a crisis of their own. Ivy League professors who had trumpeted the dawn of a new era of stability have scrambled to explain how, exactly, the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression had ambushed their entire profession. ...

n an ideal world, a profession dedicated to the study of capitalism would be as freewheeling and innovative as its ostensible subject. But economics has often been subject to powerful orthodoxies, and never more so than when Minsky arrived on the scene.

That orthodoxy, born in the years after World War II, was known as the neoclassical synthesis. The older belief in a self-regulating, self-stabilizing free market had selectively absorbed a few insights from John Maynard Keynes, the great economist of the 1930s who wrote extensively of the ways that capitalism might fail to maintain full employment. Most economists still believed that free-market capitalism was a fundamentally stable basis for an economy, though thanks to Keynes, some now acknowledged that government might under certain circumstances play a role in keeping the economy - and employment - on an even keel. ....

Instead, Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes’s landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking. Although Keynes had never stated this explicitly, Minsky argued that Keynes’s collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff. ....

Minsky called his idea the “Financial Instability Hypothesis.” In the wake of a depression, he noted, financial institutions are extraordinarily conservative, as are businesses. With the borrowers and the lenders who fuel the economy all steering clear of high-risk deals, things go smoothly: loans are almost always paid on time, businesses generally succeed, and everyone does well. That success, however, inevitably encourages borrowers and lenders to take on more risk in the reasonable hope of making more money. As Minsky observed, “Success breeds a disregard of the possibility of failure.”

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2009/09/13/why_capitalism_fails/?page=full

[Demeter]

17. LA Fires 1st Shot In CA's War On Banks, As Cities Seek To Wrangle Out Of Swaps

http://www.businessinsider.com/los-angels-fires-first-shot-in-war-on-banks-as-cities-seek-to-wrangle-out-of-swaps-2010-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

This Los Angeles City Council has passed a resolution to get out of various interest-rate swaps it entered into banks pre-crisis.

According to the SEIU, getting out of the swaps will save LA $19 million per year.

So why does the city think it should be able to get out of legally entered-into swaps without having to pay a cancellation fee?

Because, according to the SEIU's Marcus Mrowka, all those swaps were entered into pre-crisis, before the banks changed all the rules.

Up next: the union will push for various Northern California municipalities to do the same, potentially costing banks $150 million/year.

Now, why would banks relent to the demands of the cities? Think about it: the cities do business with these banks, and do have leverage of them. Cancelling a few swaps might be well worth it.

[ozymandius]

18. Employment Chart Roundup

From Ritholtz:

Once again, we’ve scoured the intertubes looking for the most interesting, unusual and informative charts about the Employment Situation, to use the BLS vernacular.

Here are 10 of the best of what we found (as always, click for larger charts):

• Labor Utilization: U3 versus U6 Unemployment
• Monthly Change in Payroll Employment
• Unit Labor Cost Relative to Inflation

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/employment-chart-roundup-2/

The oil speculators needs to look at this. It would mean a wake-up call for the prospects of the world's biggest economy. - ozymandius

[Demeter]

19. Goldman Sucks==on Youtube. Have You Seen This?

"http://www.youtube.com/v/7SFywA_LQuU&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&fs=1

[Loge23]

36. That guillotine would fit on West St. alright (eom)

[Demeter]

20. Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-Winning Economist, Says Federal Reserve System 'Corrupt'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/03/stiglitz-nobel-prize-winn_n_484943.html

One of the world's leading economists said Wednesday that the very structure of the Federal Reserve system is so fraught with conflicts that it's "corrupt."

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a former chief economist at the World Bank, said that if a country had applied for World Bank aid during his tenure, with a financial regulatory system similar to the Federal Reserve's -- in which regional Feds are partly governed by the very banks they're supposed to police -- it would have raised alarms.

"If we had seen a governance structure that corresponds to our Federal Reserve system, we would have been yelling and screaming and saying that country does not deserve any assistance, this is a corrupt governing structure," Stiglitz said during a conference on financial reform in New York. "It's time for us to reflect on our own structure today, and to say there are parts that can be improved."

Stiglitz made the remarks at a conference held by the Roosevelt Institute. He and other speakers, including Harvard Law Professor and federal bailout watchdog Elizabeth Warren and legendary investor George Soros, had bold ideas about reforming the nation's financial system.

After the conference, Stiglitz said that his remarks on the Fed were "maybe a little hyperbole," but then again made the case that if another country had presented a plan to reform its financial system, and included a regulatory regime that copied the makeup of the Federal Reserve system, "it would have been a big signal that something is wrong."

To Stiglitz, the core issue is that regional Fed banks, such as the New York Fed, have clear conflicts of interest -- a result of the banks being partly governed by a board of directors that includes officers of the very banks they're supposed to be overseeing.

The New York Fed, which was led by current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner during the time leading Wall Street firms like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, AIG, and Goldman Sachs were given hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer bailouts, presently has on its board of directors Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase. He's been there for three years. He replaced former Citigroup chairman Sanford "Sandy" Weill.

"So, these are the guys who appointed the guy who bailed them out," Stiglitz said. "Is that a conflict of interest?" he asked rhetorically.

"They would say, 'no conflict of interest, we were just doing our job,'" he answered. "But you have to look at the conflicts of interest."

A message left for a New York Fed spokeswoman after regular business hours was not returned.

"The reason you talk about governance is because in a democracy you want people to have confidence," Stiglitz said. "This is a structure that will undermine confidence in a democracy."

[Dr.Phool]

35. "Conflict of Interest".

Just a polite way of saying, "Operating a Continuing Criminal Enterprise", which is a racketeering offense, which carries a sentence of life, without parole, under the RICO statutes. There is also no statute of limitations under RICO.

They had better buy their presidents and their Dodds. A real AG could go back and file charges since the Nixswine Administration.

[Demeter]

21. Obama Gets a Visit from 3 Ghosts (or more)

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/f5a57185bd/funny-or-die-s-presidential-reunion?rel=player

[Demeter]

22. Eurozone eyes IMF-style fund

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa9877f0-2a26-11df-b940-00144feabdc0.html

Germany and France are planning to launch a sweeping new initiative to reinforce economic co-operation and surveillance within the eurozone, including the establishment of a European Monetary Fund, according to senior government officials.

Their intention is to set up the rules and tools to prevent any recurrence of instability in the eurozone stemming from the indebtedness of a single member state, such as Greece.

The first details of the plan, including support for an EMF modelled on the International Monetary Fund, were revealed at the weekend by Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister.

“I am in favour of stronger co-ordination of economic policies in the EU and in the eurozone,” Mr Schäuble told newspaper Welt am Sonntag.

If France and Germany can agree on such proposals – long urged by Paris – they are likely to set the basis for the most radical overhaul of the rules underpinning the euro since the currency was launched in 1999.

The German thinking emerged as George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, flew to Paris to seek the support of Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, for his government’s drastic austerity programme.

“We must support Greece, because they are making an effort,” Mr Sarkozy said before the meeting. “If we created the euro, we cannot let a country fall that is in the eurozone. Otherwise there was no point in creating the euro.”

His words appeared to underline the greater readiness in France than in Germany to provide some sort of financial support or guarantee for the Greek economy. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, insisted that no such support had been sought or discussed when she met Mr Papandreou on Friday.

Both France and Germany agree Greece should not turn to the IMF for support, so the idea of an EMF has clear attractions for Paris, though it could hardly be set up in time to help Greece.

Mr Schäuble said: “We are not planning a competitor . . . to the IMF, but we do need an institution for the internal equilibrium of the eurozone that would have at its disposal both the experience of the IMF, and comparable intervention mechanisms.”

According to German thinking, the plan could include tough penalties for eurozone members that fail to curb deficit spending or run up excessive government debt. Ideas include cutting off countries that fail to curb deficit spending from EU cohesion funds, temporarily removing their right to vote in EU ministerial meetings and suspension from the eurozone.

Those may prove very difficult for France to swallow, given its own record of greater fiscal laxity than Germany.

ANYBODY ELSE FEEL THE SHIVER OF NAZIS AND THE VICHY GOVERNMENT RUN DOWN THEIR SPINES? BECAUSE THE IMF IS SUCH A SUCCESSFUL MODEL TO FOLLOW--IF YOU WANT TO BULLY OTHER NATIONS AROUND LIKE THE US BANKS DO, THROUGH THE IMF....

[Demeter]

24. Dubai World debt proposals expected

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad6cb490-2a13-11df-b940-00144feabdc0.html

Dubai World is expected to approach lenders for the first time this week with a suggested proposal for restructuring $22bn of its debts, according to people close to the situation.

The troubled conglomerate has called leading creditors to London for meetings starting as early as Monday.

Bankers expect the one-on-one meetings to reveal the first details of a formal proposal, which the government has said should be finalised this month.

The plan, which may be an initial outline, is expected to offer lenders an option to be repaid over several years but with a “haircut”, or to be repaid more over a longer term, potentially with a government guarantee.

People close to the situation say nothing is certain. Some are concerned that the proposals could lead to a split among the creditor groups – further complicating the process.

“There is a real problem will fragment into a number of splinter groups,” said one person close to talks.

The restructuring is expected to involve an injection of fresh funds, but creditors may disagree how that money should be applied.

International lenders to Dubai World, which borrowed $5.5bn (€4bn, £3.6bn) in syndicated loans, may want to be repaid by the new funds, but local lenders with greater exposure to the impact of losses on Dubai World’s suppliers may prefer that the funds flow to Nakheel and Limitless, Dubai World’s developer subsidiaries.

“There is a choice of where the money goes in,” the person said. “Creditors of Nakheel are suppliers and local builders that in turn have borrowed from local banks. If they don’t get repaid there could be a multiplier effect.”

Currently there is one steering committee of banks that represents the interests of lenders to Dubai World that have been in talks with Dubai’s Department of Finance and the company.

They include Royal Bank of Scotland, Standard Chartered, HSBC, Lloyds, two UAE banks and the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi.

There are also informal groups to represent lenders to Limitless and Nakheel. UK banks are thought to have an aggregate total of $5bn exposure to Dubai World.

Nakheel bondholders have already formed a group represented by Ashurst in anticipation of a proposal being tabled.

Banks based in the United Arab Emirates have $15bn of exposure to Dubai World, Moody’s estimated in a report.

Moody’s said Dubai-based banks were particularly exposed to Dubai state-linked and private companies, some of which might come under stress, potentially triggering “serious repercussions”.

Talks have so far failed to reach a formal standstill, with some advisers blaming the logjam on the finance department’s insistence that the money it pumps into Dubai World to cover operational expenses and bank interest must be secured.

However, those close to the restructuring say the government is not seeking a better deal than existing lenders.

Bankers say Dubai World’s overall debt burden – including entities outside the restructuring process which involves $22bn in outstanding debts – stands at about $40bn, rising to almost $60bn with liabilities.

As the group seeks to raise cash, Dubai World may sell an additional stake in DP World via an expected listing on the London Stock Exchange, with the ports operator – which falls outside the restructuring – raising further funds via a rights issue.

Dubai called for a $26bn standstill request on Dubai World’s debts in November, prompting market turmoil and a loan from Abu Dhabi which was used to pay off a $4.1bn Islamic bond by Nakheel in December.

[Demeter]

26. Greece is a harbinger of austerity for all

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/7378428/Greece-is-a-harbinger-of-austerity-for-all.html

The economic crisis reached a turning point this week. Admittedly, it might have passed you by, as one piece of bad news blended relentlessly into another. And there was certainly no fanfare to mark this change, still less any sign of a break in the clouds.

No, what I am referring to is the sense of resignation, or surrender, that has crept into the economic argument – a collective global realisation that public policy, fiscal and monetary, has reached the limits of its ability to fight the downturn. To many of you, this might have been obvious for some time. But there remained a deluded belief that governments and central banks could magic away the crisis, or at least save us from its worst consequences.

Two events this week have highlighted that, despite a stimulus of unprecedented proportions and scope, they cannot. The first was the additional austerity package announced by Greece under pressure from its European masters. To be tightening so severely into an ever-deepening contraction looks like economic madness, but the Greeks have no choice. And the second was the spectacle of Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, asserting his determination to “normalise” monetary conditions – while tacitly acknowledging the impossibility of even trying to do so, as long as the eurozone economy remains as stagnant as it is.

Policymakers are desperate to unwind the “unconventional support”, to activate “exit strategies” and begin the long march back to normality. But there is still little sign of the sustained private-sector recovery required to take up the slack.

Rewind a year, and the world economy stood on the brink of outright catastrophe. Equity and debt markets were pricing in levels of default that indicated a repeat of the Great Depression. In Britain, the Bank of England slashed its interest rate to an unheard-of 0.5 per cent, and a massive £175 billion programme of quantitative easing was announced to counter the contraction in credit. Broadly similar action was taken around the world, accompanied by equally dramatic fiscal loosening.

A year on, and the roof plainly hasn’t fallen in. There has been a severe economic contraction, but unemployment hasn’t climbed to anywhere near the levels predicted, asset and commodity prices have rebounded strongly, and because of record low interest rates, many are feeling better off than they were. Those seeking an explanation of why the Conservatives aren’t faring better in the polls need look no further: over the past year, Britain has had what amounts to the biggest pre-election giveaway of all time.

Yet there is a continued air of unreality about the whole thing. Everywhere in the West, and even in China, the “recovery” – such as it is – floats on a sea of public support, with the hoped-for rebound in underlying private-sector activity as elusive as ever. More worrying still, the stimulus is beginning to peter out of its own accord. Conscious of the dangers of ending support prematurely, many governments would hope to run large deficits for quite a bit longer. Impatience in the bond markets is fast closing off this option.

Greece may be in its own particular class of basket case, but it is also just a harbinger of things to come for all fiscally stretched advanced economies. What Greece is being obliged to do is no more than what the IMF would impose if called on to provide support.

Without urgent pre-emptive action, we’ll all eventually be in the same boat. In the UK, the cost of government bonds has risen, despite the massive purchases made through quantitative easing. This reflects not so much the risk of default, which is negligible for a country with its own currency, as the threat of inflation. The collapse in sterling has added to inflationary pressures, and led to notably higher market interest rates. Investors worry about who is going to pay for all that public borrowing, and are raising rates accordingly.

The effect is to render much of the debate around the timing and appropriateness of “exit strategies” irrelevant. Economies are at one and the same time both unprepared to end the extraordinary support of the past year, and being forced to end it regardless.

The best solution to a fiscal deficit is growth, (TAX THE OBSCENELY WEALTHY! TAX THE OBSCENELY WEALTHY!) yet growth has to battle with the inevitability of spending cuts and tax rises to come. Is there any way out? The UK is pinning its hopes on exports – but, regrettably, we are not alone. The French government this week announced plans to eliminate the industrial deficit over the next five years by raising production by a quarter. The line-up of export hopefuls is getting ever more crowded.

As the drug-induced stupor of public support wears off, the pain will be almost universally felt. Public policy may have smoothed the comedown, but it hasn’t permanently suspended it. If there is one positive to be drawn from these widening deficits, it is this: they have at least focused attention on the intergenerational debts that we threaten to heap on to our children, and provided the wake-up call needed to address them.

Sadly, the necessary structural reforms must begin with (TAXING THE OBSCENELY WEALTHY, PROSECUTING BANKSTERS AND ASSET-STRIPPING CROOKS) our unsustainable pension and healthcare costs. Which means that working longer and saving more will become the defining mantras of the next decade.

[Demeter]

28. More Bank Marketing By James Kwak

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/06/more-bank-marketing/

I’ve already criticized Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit’s testimony before the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel on Thursday, but there’s one thing I left out. Citigroup, like other banks not named Goldman Sachs, is attempting to cloak itself in a mantle of goodness. Pandit’s testimony included several bullet points discussing all the wonderful things that Citigroup is doing for ordinary Americans. For example: “In 2009, we provided $439.8 billion of new credit in the U.S., including approximately $80.5 billion in new mortgages and $80.1 billion in new credit card lending.”

There are two problems with these kinds of numbers. One is that I have no idea what to compare them to. I looked through Citigroup’s most recent financial supplement and was unable to find any numbers for “new credit,” let alone those numbers in particular. For a credit card, what does “new credit” mean? If I have no balance, and then I lose my job so I run up $20,000 on my Citi credit card, is that $20,000 in new credit? Or does new credit only include new cards issued? If so, how does it compare to credit taken away by closing people’s accounts or reducing their credit limits?

The second is that whatever Pandit says about “new credit,” it’s hard to argue that credit didn’t contract in 2009. For example, total consumer loans fell from $484 billion at the end of 2008 to $443 billion at the end of 2009, and total corporate loans fell from $218 billion to $177 billion, while money deposited with other banks (including the Federal Reserve) grew by $100 billion. Now, this is not all Citigroup’s fault. For one thing, they were overextended, so de-leveraging made sense from a balance sheet perspective, and for another there may have been a decline in demand for credit. But I’m still troubled by this attempt to pretend that Citi was fueling the economic recovery by stepping up lending.

Update: A friend who I believe has plenty of credit and no need for more writes in to say that the credit line on her Citibank credit card was just increased by $6,000, even though she never used more than one-third of her old credit line. She was wondering why until she realized that the $6,000 counts as “new credit” to Citi.

[Demeter]

29. Tansy Should Include This In Her Presidential Platform

An Interview with Criminologist Bill Black
The Top Ten Ways to Crack Down on Corporate Financial Crime

By RUSSELLL MOKHIBER

http://www.counterpunch.org/mokhiber03052010.html

[kickysnana]

30. +1 n/t

[AnneD]

43. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. As the front runner as Tansy Gold's second banana- I can safely say that those would be terms that she would find most agreeable and would receive her ITYS stamp.

Now what in the heck am I doing so boldly posting to SMW so late during the work day....I took the day off. I was hacking and whooping Saturday and Sunday that took a day of sick leave and might even consider taking tomorrow off too. I have noticed that folks tend to take the school nurse for granted because we are always there, even if we feel marginal. We have built up such an immune system that we are always pretty much always around. But I have decided that since our new admin has developed their attitude, I will no longer force myself to work if I am ill or other such unappreciated heroics. So I am taking it easy at home. I will go out and get some more tissue and medicine to pamper myself with but that is about it. I have been watching old movies like Lost Horizon (loved it), So Proudly We Hailed (interesting about combat Nurses in Bataan and Corregador), From Here to Eternity,You Can't Take it with You, Godspell, etc. I saw Shakespeare in Love again-It had been a while and I really forgot how much I loved it. But of all I watched-The Lost Horizon was the most powerful and You Can't Take it with You left you to ponder what is true happiness.

Well, it seems that charging our school with cheat on the all important Taks test has opened a new can of worms. It seems that the teachers (union members I might add) reported they were given an advanced copy of a portion of the 4th grade Taks test and turned it over to the union for the union to turn in (teachers are to scared to turn it over to their principals anymore). Seems the were given those by a Taks test consultant that handle 50 other schools-so now the TEA is considering dropping our rating to unacceptable pending an investigation. Well, Mr. New Superintendent hasn't even been here 6 months and our ratings have managed to dropped to match one of the worst districts in the county. We will picket the next board meeting. We got 1000 folks out in the nasty weather-I can only imagine what we will get in good weather. Teachers are hotter than a $2 pistol over all this. The board member need to start showing spine and balls or they will be out next November.

Well I am on my last tissue so I have to step out.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Demeter]

44. Virtual Chicken Soup and Best Wishes

Take care of yourself!

[AnneD]

47. Thanks......

I feel much better now. When I am sick-I like to take ethnic cures, like greek chicken and noodle soup with lemon or chinese hot an sour soup (chinese hot mustard is better than Clariten to clear the nasal passages). A hot Mexican chili can burn out the bug too. Add a tequila shot and you sleep like a babe.

It occurred to me as I was looking for a cough syrup, I am better off making my own. It is cheaper and better for you. I make a hot toddy with 1 good wedge of lemon or lime, a cup of hot water, honey to taste and a couple of tablespoons of Bourbon or whiskey. Now if you just want a syrup...squeeze the lemon, honey, and whiskey together. Of course you use less alcohol with the kids (1 teaspoon does it). The lemon and honey soothe the throat, the lemon cuts the mucous and gives you extra C and the alcohol suppresses the cough.

There you have it, I used that on myself and my daughter and we do just fine and it costs a hell of a lot less than those witch's brew that they sell..yuck! I have also become a fan of echenasia too. I don't care what the studies say, it helps my immune system fight off things.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Iceland's bizarre Icesave referendum

3/8/10 Iceland's bizarre Icesave referendum
A recent Icelandic referendum on repaying the Icesave debt was little more than political theatre of the absurd

This past weekend, the people of Iceland went to the polls in a referendum to vote on whether a deal should be passed to repay the British and Dutch governments for deposits lost in the Icesave online savings accounts when Iceland's Landsbanki collapsed.

As the international media flocked to Iceland in the lead-up to the referendum, the phrase "theatre of the absurd" occurred. There seemed to be a popular misconception that the referendum was about far more serious things than it actually was – such as whether Iceland planned to repay the Icesave debt at all. In fact, Icelandic authorities had already committed to repaying the minimum deposit amount for each Icesave online account – the deal being voted on in the referendum merely concerned the terms of the repayment.

However, what made the referendum – the first in the history of the Republic of Iceland – particularly bizarre was that there was already a deal on the table that was marginally better than the one being voted on. Confused? You're not alone.

more...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/08/iceland-referendum-icesave-repay

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. The people that live with fire and ice

Tell the banks to :ESAD: Hope they stick with that story....

Can't help but get the feeling the banks paid off the "investors" to cover their own asses. My guess, they failed to do basic research, and got fried in a ponzi scheme. By removing the third party's from the equation, they saved a bunch of lawsuits.

Now if they can scam the RoI into paying, they save jail time and get reimbursed...:popcorn: be interesting to see how this plays out!

[Robbien]

49. Protesters have gathered every week

with regular numbers swelling to about 2,000, according to police estimates. The last time the island saw demonstrations on a similar scale was before the government of former Prime Minister Geir Haarde was toppled.

Icelanders have thrown red paint over house facades and cars of key employees at the failed banks, Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki and Glitnir Bank hf, to vent their anger. The government has appointed a special commission to investigate financial malpractice and has identified more than 20 cases that will result in prosecution.


. . .

Voters rejected the bill because “ordinary people, farmers and fishermen, taxpayers, doctors, nurses, teachers, are being asked to shoulder through their taxes a burden that was created by irresponsible greedy bankers,” said President Olafur R. Grimsson

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awUQtLSVh0sQ&pos=7



Nice!

[Po_d Mainiac]

52. Painting the banksters personal assets red

woodn't that be a lovely sight indeed!! :evilgrin:

:toast:

[UpInArms]

32. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.241 Change -0.052 (-0.07%)

US Dollar Weathers a Rebound in Risk Appetite, But for How Long?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-03-06-0104-US_Dollar_Weathers_a_Rebound.html

Over the past twelve to eighteen months, the markets have moved more or less in tandem. This is a by-product of investor sentiment standing in as the dominant fundamental driver for the market value. Through 2009, the primary trend was the relief as crises ended and speculative capital would once again find its way into the market and subsequently raise asset prices. However, this rally could not last forever; and we have seen a sharp correction in the levels of the market and sentiment since the beginning of the new year. No doubt, risk trends will steer volatility and trend for some time to come; but those investors that are truly savvy have already begun to monitor the breakdown of this all-encompassing correlation. Already, we have seen the correlation between the benchmark currency and fundamental theme deteriorate this past week. Why is the greenback veering off course and will this break from strong tradition continue?

Through 2009, the US dollar was under constant selling pressure first as investors were diversifying away from Treasuries post-crisis and into economies with better hope for return. As the advance matured, though, the effort to invest in higher yielding assets was increasingly funded by US loans. With market rates in the world’s largest economy at record low levels, there was a growing belief that the dollar was an ideal funding currency in the given market environment. Yet, where the currency perhaps fulfilled such a role through the short-term, an assessment with a more distant perspective suggested the greenback would not maintain a funding status for very long. Given the probability that rates would begin rising sometime in the second half of the year and the appeal of US assets in the international market; the dollar would not offer a stable yield differential and posed a capital appreciation risk. However, it wasn’t until recently that these conditions would start to factor in. This past week, a benchmark event occurred when the US three-month Libor rate crossed above its Japanese equivalent. While this was not the benchmark to immediately propel the single currency to the same carry status as say the Australian dollar, it cease any speculation that the greenback was a better source of funds than the Japanese yen. This is one of the primary reasons why the dollar has remained somewhat stationary over the past month while equities have started to appreciate and the Japanese yen tumbled.

Does this shift mean that the greenback has fully relieved itself of its correlation to risk appetite? No. A strong enough rally in investor optimism would likely spur the dollar to losses as there are still bigger factors (like the long-term effort to diversify away from a dependence on the single currency). More importantly, a tumble capital markets (a rise in risk aversion) would still play to the benchmark’s appeal as a safe haven. Yet, absent clear and all encompassing trends in risk appetite, the dollar could attempt to further define its own future. In the meantime, it will be important to monitor the larger risks to stability. Should the Greek situation suddenly deteriorate or Spain, Portugal or Italy fall find themselves in similar positions; the underlying catalyst could once again take over.

As for scheduled event risk, the economic docket does not carry many major market-movers (though it bears mention that even the most prominent economic release – NFPs – wasn’t able to rouse price action this past week). Retail sales and consumer sentiment will offer a meaningful overview of health for the economy’s largest sector. The trade report will be mixed view as it offers a feeling of American’s spending habits and one of the consistent deficits. The other deficit (fiscal) will also be in the news with the budget statement.



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Daily Sound Bites 03.08

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-03-08-1315-Daily_Sound_Bites_03_08.html



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[DemReadingDU]

37. Bob Janjuah - "Hopefully, For All Our Sakes, The Bubble Bursts Sooner Rather Than Later"

3/8/10 Bob Janjuah - "Hopefully, For All Our Sakes, The Bubble Bursts Sooner Rather Than Later"

"At some point the bubble will burst. Hopefully for ALL our sakes its sooner rather than later. The longer we are forced to wait, the bigger the bubble will be and the more horribly damaging the bursting process will be. And if we are forced to wait and the bubble gets anywhere like the one that went pop in late 2007 I have ZERO idea who will credibly be able to bail us all out the next time round. Certainly not OUR governments." - Bob Janjuah

There is NO sustainable prvte sector demand, and there really won't be any for some yrs.

- delusion no.1 is that these economies will devalue and export there way out of trouble. This seems a nonsense to me as EVERYONE is looking to devalue (a race to nowhere) and EVERYONE is looking to export, but to whom??

- delusion no.2 is that we can inflate away our debts. This can ONLY wrk successfully if such a policy of inflation is unanticipated, as otherwise it gets pre-emptively priced into inflation expectations. So it has already failed as AT LEAST half the mrkts see/expect this as the attempted way out.

- delusion no.3 is that governments can keep pumping/printing/borrowing, without consequence, and for long enough to hide the private sector deleveraging/deflationary trends. Those limits are pretty much already with us (Greece), or are soon to be with us give or take a few mths (in the UK), or at best give or take a few qtrs (in the case of the US). On the basis that prvte sector weakness is a multi-yr trend, government is NOT gonna be the solution and will become/is now part of the problem as austerity kicks in (Greece 'done', UK in a few mths, then the US later this year).

- delusion no.4 is 'the weather'. What a load of tosh. Frankly I am shocked the 'mrkt' collectively has fallen for this rubbish.

Anyway, due to the above 4 delusions the mrkt - as ever dominated by FEAR and GREED - is already badly mispricing the Big Reality and risks taking this mispricing YET AGAIN to horrible bubble proportions over the next few weeks/mths. YES - we have learnt nothing!

more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bob-janjuah-hopefully-all-our-sakes-bubble-bursts-sooner-rather-later

[Demeter]

39. I'll Drink to That! I love bubbly!

the world needs a whole new plan that puts labor to work and financial parasites under the overpasses.

[Roland99]

45. Climb onboard the Bull Gravy Train! chugga-chugga-chugga CHOO-CHOO!!!

http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB126784011987856735.html?mod=mktw#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

[Demeter]

50. Barrons Has Got to Be Out of Its Corporate Mind

Although I suppose yelling "the sky is falling" won't sell any papers....

[Demeter]

51. My Sis in Mass. Says They Have Two Feet of Snow!

She sent this picture:



http://co107w.col107.mail.live.com/mail/SafeRedirect.aspx?hm__tg=%26ct%3daW1hZ2UvanBlZw_3d_3d%26name%3dMDA3JTIwdHdvJTIwZmVldCUyMG9mJTIwc25vdy5qcGc_3d%26inline%3d1%26rfc%3d0%26empty%3dFalse%26imgsrc%3dcid%253a1.3400141858%2540web30506.mail.mud.yahoo.com&oneredir=1&ip=10.12.140.8&d=d4849&mf=0&a=01_51eb5298eb9d19ba049b09edfc8ae1584509f38cdfc598c91da9b23d2370e88e