STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 11, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 10, 2010

Dow... 10,567.33 +2.95 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq... 2,358.95 +18.27 (+0.78%)
S&P 500... 1,145.61 +5.17 (+0.45%)
Gold future... 1,108 -14.10 (-1.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.72 +0.02 (+0.54%)
30-Year Bond 4.69 +0.01 (+0.30%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Continuing Claims 2/27
Briefing.com 4550K
Consensus 4500K
Prior 4500K

08:30 Initial Claims 03/06
Briefing.com 445K
Consensus 460K
Prior 469K

08:30 Trade Balance Jan
Briefing.com -$42.5B
Consensus -$41.0B
Prior -$40.2B

12:00 Flow of Funds Q4

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

30. Initial Claims @ 462,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k - trade gap @ $41.0 bln

8:30a Jan trade gap with China $18.3 bln vs $20.6 yr-ago

8:30a Dec trade gap rev $39.9 bln vs $40.2 bln prev est

8:30a U.S. Jan. trade gap below consensus of $41.0 bln

8:30a U.S. Jan. trade gap narrows 6.6% to $37.3 bln

8:30a Four-week moving average of claims rises by 5,000

8:30a First-time jobless claims drops 6,000 to 462,000

[Demeter]

54. And the Beat(ings) Goes On

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU10TZs1ow0

[ozymandius]

2. Oil near $82 as traders eye weak US demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $82 a barrel Thursday in Asia as traders eyed tepid U.S. crude demand amid an overall economic expansion. ...

Crude prices have hovered in the low $80s this week — after jumping from $69 early last month — on investor optimism that sluggish U.S. oil demand will eventually reflect a growing global economy.

U.S. data for last week was mixed. The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude inventories grew while gasoline and distillate supplies fell. ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil fell 0.28 cents to $2.1134 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.01 cents to $2.275 a gallon. Natural gas declined 2.5 cents to $4.534 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Loge23]

28. Have we officially jumped the shark on supply and demand?

So with slack demand, traders are still betting like it's 2005.
Clearly, this is rampant speculation.
It is also becoming clear that the deflation/inflation equations as they apply to economic growth prediction are also permanently skewed.
In slow growth states, where the nascent economic "recovery" has yet to take hold, this unreasonable and market-contrary rise in commodities will effectively snuff out any hope of recovery.
I fear significant damage resulting from this latest round of trough feeding.

[FarCenter]

40. Speculation is driven by global demand, not necessarily US demand

US demand is only 20%+ of the global demand.

Tapis oil is at $84.83 / barrel. (Malaysian market)

[truthisfreedom]

3. Socialism is the only approach that's worked so far for universal health care in other countries.

We should be embracing it. It's too bad we had hitler and McCarthy to destroy our image of anything that ends in "ism." Sometimes you have to face reality... I hope America isn't too late.

[ozymandius]

5. Winston Churchill new the score seventy years ago.

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."

Indeed we will eventually catch on to the historical notion that Europe learned decades ago. (Even Germany learned this lesson in the 1890s.) The lesson is: if you can find money to kill people then you can certainly find money to help people.

[Dr.Phool]

25. That doesn't apply anymore.

Now, after we've exhausted all other possibilities, we try them again...only harder.

Have a budget deficit? Cut taxes on the rich!
Have a bigger deficit now? Bigger tax cuts for the rich!
High unemployment? Outsource overseas.
Unemployment still rising? Outsource more, and increase H1-B's!

What was that Einstein said about insanity?
:crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[Loge23]

27. Add: Bubble burst? Don't regulate, just reinflate! (eom)

[Ghost Dog]

49. Look up "Clement Atlee": Greatest British PM of 20th Century (1945-51):

Clement Richard Attlee, 1st Earl Attlee, KG, OM, CH, PC, FRS (3 January 1883 – 8 October 1967) was a British Labour politician who served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1945 to 1951, and as the Leader of the Labour Party from 1935 to 1955. He was also the first person to hold the office of Deputy Prime Minister, under Winston Churchill in the wartime coalition government, before leading the Labour Party to a landslide election victory over Churchill's Conservative Party in 1945. He was the first Labour Prime Minister to serve a full Parliamentary term, and the first to have a majority in Parliament.

The government he led put in place the post-war settlement, based upon the assumption that full employment would be maintained by Keynesian policies, and that a greatly enlarged system of social services would be created – aspirations that had been outlined in the wartime Beveridge Report. Within this context, his government undertook the nationalisation of major industries and public utilities as well as the creation of the National Health Service. After initial Conservative opposition to Keynesian fiscal policy, this settlement was broadly accepted by all parties<1> until Margaret Thatcher became leader of the Conservative Party in the 1970s and neoliberalism became mainstream.

His government also presided over the decolonisation of a large part of the British Empire when India, Pakistan, Burma, Sri Lanka and Jordan obtained their independence. The British Mandate of Palestine also came to an end with the creation of Israel on the day of British withdrawal.

In 2004, he was voted the greatest British prime minister of the 20th century in a poll of 139 professors organised by MORI.<2>

/,,, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clement_Atlee

[Joe Chi Minh]

71. Well said, Ghost Dog! Perhaps the best measure of his success is the opprobium

which has always been heaped on him by the right wing, effectively the Establishment. On the rare occasions you ever hear or read about him. I hope that plinth in Trafalgar Square is being kept for a statue of him: the people's PM.

It's wonderful to read that he was voted the greatest British prime minister of the 20th century in poll of 139 professors. It's a pity they don't own and run our media.

[Joe Chi Minh]

63. How about this Alternet article? It's along similar, though different lines, to the

fascinating one by Stephen Bezruchka published in ZNet, entitled Health and Poverty in the US. Someone posted it on Club Orlov.

http://www.alternet.org/health/145955/what_makes_the_healthiest_and_happiest_societies_hint:_it_not_rich_people_?page=entire

[ozymandius]

4. Geithner warns EU on hedge fund regulation plan

LONDON (AFP) – US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has warned the European Commission its plans to regulate hedge funds and private equity groups could spark a transatlantic row, a paper reported Thursday.

Geithner hit out at a draft European Union directive that would impose tighter restrictions on the investment funds in a letter to the EU's internal market commissioner, Michel Barnier, the Financial Times said.

Proposed new rules might damage US hedge funds, private equity groups and banks by curbing their ability to do business with Europe, Geithner argued in the one-page letter sent on March 1.

The changes would restrict the access of EU investors to funds based outside the 27-nation bloc, and non-EU funds would also be forced to comply with new rules in order to do business inside the bloc.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100311/pl_afp/useufinanceeconomyregulate

---

(Speaking as an EU solon) Ooh... I'm so scared. :sarcasm:

Geithner just loves him some hedge funds and private equity groups. If you are new to these dealings at the SMW - this grouping is Geithner's primary concern. They are, for such a young man, his intended future.

[Demeter]

23. Ditto!!

Geithner needs to change his pants...to something more absorbent.

[mrdmk]

43. Ozymandius, I know from your post that you do not like to speak in these terms but,

Timothy Geithner is a fucking joke and a fucking idiot. Where does he get the fucking notion that fucking securities that bankrupted the fucking world economy do not need to be fucking regulated.

Please excuse me, I am beside myself...

[Dr.Phool]

50. He said at his confirmation hearing, that as head of the NY Fed.

He didn't look at himself as a regulator. :wtf:

And they wonder why the banks and investment houses that he was in charge of regulating, screwed the pooch? I think he takes the same approach to his cabinet position. And the morans in the Senate confirmed this idiot.:wow:

Geithner and Bernanke are both made in the Greenspan mold. Frontline on PBS had a good show about Brooksley Born a few weeks ago. The first time she met Greenspan for lunch, he told her that she probably believed in regulating and prosecuting fraud. He said it was totally wrong and unnecessary, because "the market" would push it all out.

[mrdmk]

51. Last I heard from Greenspan, his Regulation (or Deregulation) Theory was incorrect

It was a made for TV event, except the news reports gave it 15 seconds in a 1 day news-cycle!

[Joe Chi Minh]

64. Greenspan reminds me of Keynes' description of a book by Hayek, who,

of course, would be one of his "intellectual" heroes. Keynes remarked:
"It is an extraordinary example of how, starting with a mistake, a remorseless logician can end up in bedlam."

Interesting to visualize the likely inmates of this Keynesian Bedlam : Hayek, Greenspan, Friedman, Rand, The Chicago Boys, Pinochet, Thatcher, Reagan...

[Demeter]

65. Now That's a Quote!

sounds like
Vulcan madness to me.

[Joe Chi Minh]

69. You mean like Spock? That would figure. One of our Tory MPs is nicknamed

The Vulcan, but it's endemic, more so these days than ever, as in the US.

[Dr.Phool]

68. Good one!

[ozymandius]

6. Japan's 4Q growth weaker than first estimated

...
Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized pace of 3.8 percent in the October-December quarter, the government said Thursday, revised down from the 4.6 percent in a preliminary report last month. The new figure was generally in line with market forecasts.

Slightly lower business spending and a big drop in inventories — which suggests companies are letting stocks of goods deplete in anticipation of weak demand — drove the GDP revision.

The updated calculations by the Cabinet Office revealed that companies spent slightly less than expected on factories and equipment. Capital expenditures expanded by 0.9 percent, down from an initial reading of 1 percent.

The results show Japanese companies remain conservative with spending, focusing instead on cutting costs and recovering profits despite growth in China and elsewhere in Asia.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100311/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy

[ozymandius]

7. We truly live in an era of depression economics.

Senate passes $149 billion for jobless aid

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Senate on Wednesday passed a $149 billion package of jobless aid and tax breaks, as Democrats continued efforts to lower the 9.7 percent unemployment rate before congressional elections in November.

The measure, approved by a vote of 62 to 36, now heads to the House of Representatives, where many Democrats have pushed for more aggressive job-creation measures in the face of the worst U.S. economic downturn since the 1930s. ...

Democrats say job creation is their top priority this year as they head into an election season that could possibly cost them control of Congress.

Both chambers have now passed two job-creation bills, but they have yet to resolve their differences and finish legislation that Obama can sign into law.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100311/bs_nm/us_usa_congress_jobs

[fasttense]

21. These tax cuts to encourage "small" businesses to hire someone, are a waste of money.

"White House economic adviser Christina Romer said on Tuesday that a similar hiring credit proposed by Obama would generate 250,000 jobs at a cost of $13 billion.


That comes to $52,000 a job. Why not just hire someone for $50,000 a year and save $2,000 per job. It's as if no one has a brain left in DC.

[Demeter]

24. It's More Than That--It's a Refusal To Admit the Emperor Has No Clothes

Emperor TaxCut is a fraud as far as running an economy is concerned, and if/when DC politicians finally admit to it, they are going to have to cough up their loot and find a better gig, because no one will vote for crooks who make huge giveaways to corporations, and corporations won't make huge gifts to politicans that don't give them back their graft twentyfold.

[ozymandius]

8. Wholesale inventories fall while sales increase

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that inventories at the wholesale level were reduced 0.2 percent in January following a 1 percent drop in December. Sales were up a solid 1.3 percent, the best showing since a 3.6 percent rise in November. ...

Analysts believe the stage has been set for such a rebound given how lean inventories are at present following a massive inventory liquidation that occurred during the recession. Inventories at the wholesale level had fallen for 13 straight months and have been down 15 of the past 17 months. The only gains in wholesale inventories occurred in October and November.

With the January drop in inventories, the ratio of inventories to sales dipped to a record low of 1.10, meaning it would take 1.10 months to deplete inventories at the wholesale level given the January sales pace. That was the lowest point since the data series began in 1992. ...

Economists believe that the current recovery can't be sustained until businesses begin consistently restocking their depleted shelves. That restocking would mean higher orders to factories and growing demand for manufacturing workers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100311/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

[ozymandius]

9. Naked Swaps Crackdown in Europe Rings Hollow Without Washington

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- European politicians and regulators could initiate a continent-wide ban on speculative trading of sovereign credit-default swaps tomorrow. Making it stick without the Americans won’t work.

New York and London dominate swaps trading, and both have resisted greater regulation. Last year, U.S. regulators and Congress rejected a proposed ban on buying credit-default swaps without owning the underlying debt. Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, said yesterday that these so-called naked swaps weren’t the “key driver” of the Greek debt crisis and it would be wrong to rush to ban them. ...

The European Union’s top regulatory official, European Commission President Jose Barroso, said March 9 that the 27- nation bloc will consider banning “purely speculative naked” credit-default swaps after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for a crackdown on derivatives trading to prevent a rerun of the Greek crisis. ...

A Europe-wide ban on naked swaps “could be implemented immediately” under the EU’s Market Abuse Directive, said Simon Gleeson, financial-regulatory partner at Clifford Chance LLP in London. Such action would be tested in the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg, with a verdict likely “to take six years,” he said.

For now, talk by Merkel and others of bans and tough regulation is designed “to frighten the hedge funds off the trades,” Gleeson said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aj9Qo2YqmFKs&pos=4

[Demeter]

11. I Think It Will

Losing the Europeans, can't get the Asians, and the Americans are broke...it will work. It's not like Africa or India will pick up the slack.

[ozymandius]

14. Good morning, Demeter.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
Funny thing about practices America champions first (such as derivatives trading): the rest of the world either observes America's innovation and improves upon it or the world doesn't undertake the practice at all. Derivatives trading is verily a movable market that can be tailored to bet on nearly anything that moves. As you, though, I do not see emerging markets looking at this innovation and exclaiming, "what a great idea!" Outside observation might look at derivatives today as akin to a luxuriously gift-wrapped pipe bomb.

[AnneD]

17. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. The economy has finally caught up with Houston and surrounding area. Houston is including the specter of furloughing police and firefighters in order to balance the budget. La Marque will be closing one of their schools and our Superintendent is going crazy with the ax. Cy Fair district is seeing red ink too. Our unemployment numbers are increasing as is the number of office reality in foreclosure. And of course, home foreclosure yard signs are popping up like mushrooms.

We have had a strong economic engine but it is really straining. The only positive sign is I am seeing rail traffic increasing and neighbours around the ship channel are complaining about the increased noise level.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Tansy_Gold]

34. Unfortunately, Ozy, I think there are sufficient elites even in the third world

who will see "American innovation" as a vehicle for enhancing their own status.

The third world already has its potentates, and they are not stupid. Greedy and corrupt beyond description perhaps, but not stupid. And they don't give any more of a shit about their people than our elites do about theirs.

And if "American innovation" in financial engineering can be used to funnel more of the third world's wealth into the first world's pockets, well, so much the better.


Tansy Gold

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Naked swaps and "shorts"

should have been things of the past after they were never created.

Seems everyone else with a brain understands the "no skin in the game" concept except the AWOL Wall St regulators. In reality, the lack of enforcement has kept money out of markets.

[FarCenter]

42. The critical piece in the game is London

Derivatives were invented there. It was the center of operations like AIG Financial Product Group.

Either the EU has to bring the UK under control or toss out the Brits. It will be fascinating to see how it goes.

One possibility is to let the EU decay and enhance a more cohesive Eurozone as its functional replacement.

[ozymandius]

10. The Next Stress Test Scenarios

From Calculated Risk:

t is probably time for the U.S. to consider the next set of stress tests for the banks. That is what the Financial Services Authority (FSA) is doing in the U.K.

From the FSA:

We have now embedded our new approach to stress testing into our normal supervisory process. This includes supplementing firms’ own stress testing with supervisory stress testing of major firms. This involves regularly updating the stress test scenarios.

So stress tests are now part of the normal oversight process. I think the Treasury should do the same thing, and release two scenarios again: 1) a baseline case matching the consensus view (or the Fed's current forecast), and 2) a more severe case with a double dip recession and further house price declines. ...

Notice that the FSA stress test scenarios are for five years; the Treasury and Fed stress tests scenarios were for only 2 years. I think many of the problems (like extending CRE loans) were pushed beyond the stress test horizon, and make the banks look healthier than they really are.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/congressional-oversight-panel.html

[ozymandius]

15. Principal Writedowns and the Fake Stress Test

by Mike Konczal at New Deal 2.0

Three things happened in a row yesterday: (1) Two positive profiles of Timothy Geithner (New Yorker, and The Atlantic) came out, both working under the assumption that the stress tests of last year worked. (2) Shahien Nasiripour had a comment about principal write-downs walked back on him by Treasury: “Treasury is NOT poised to roll out a major principal write-down program. As the said, we are looking at a number of tweaks to existing programs to help reach more borrowers.”

(Are you reading Shahien’s work? You should, he’s doing great work on financial issues; he was the one who caught the modifcations -> 70% more underwater issue. Here’s a little secret about Huffington Post – you can rss feed specific reporters off their page. So if you find the page itself a little overwhelming, or think you are missing most of the better financial reporting as it gets buried quickly, your rss feed reader will catch it for you.)

(3) And Barney Frank released a letter to the four largest banks, centered around this language (my bold):

Many investors in first-lien mortgages have indicated that they are willing to accept the fact of significant losses on those investments in order to move on and use their money for other purposes, rather than having it locked in underwater mortgages with a high and growing likelihood of foreclosure. With the interests of homeowners and investors aligned in this way, it should follow that large numbers of principal-reduction modifications could be made relatively quickly. That is not happening. According to investors, Administration officials, and other experts I have consulted, holders of second-lien mortgages are now a principal obstacle to many modifications. The problem of second-lien mortgages standing in the way of successful principal reduction modifications has reached a critical stage and requires immediate attention from your institutions.

Large numbers of these second liens have no real economic value – the first liens are well underwater, and the prospect for any real return on the seconds is negligible. Yet because accounting rules allow holders of these seconds to carry the loans at artificially high values, many refuse to acknowledge the losses and write down the loans, which would allow willing first lien holders to reduce principal and keep borrowers in their homes.

I want to connect these three things around a simple premise: writing down those second liens, which would allow principal writedowns of underwater mortgages, would expose the stress tests of last year as a lie.

http://www.newdeal20.org/?p=8835

[Demeter]

55. We ALL Know It's a Lie, and It Was Designed To BE a Lie

but if nobody in authority SAYS it's a lie, then it's Truth?

Or maybe just "truthiness".

Olberman, Maddow, Colbert and Stewart, our 4th Estate in this Brave New World.

[ozymandius]

12. Financial Crisis Panel to Grill Greenspan (not literally, sadly)

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be the star witness at a hearing of the congressional panel looking into causes of the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the situation.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s three-day session in early April gives commission members a rare opportunity to quiz the man who oversaw federal financial regulation throughout the runup to the crisis in 2008. Greenspan’s role as Fed chairman has come in for criticism since then, but he has seldom been called to testify before Congress. ...

The hearing will focus on the explosion of subprime mortgages, and the complex securitizations that Wall Street engineered from those loans. And it will examine the role of government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/03/10/financial-crisis-panel-to-grill-greenspan/

[Demeter]

13. Good Morning, Ozy and All!

It's above freezing and much of the snow is gone. Getting around was a lot easier this morning.

Beware the Ides of March! That's when Weekend Economists comes to bury Caesar and those wannabes that pop up in modern times.

I have developed full-blown Spring fever--I'm heading out this weekend to buy flooring for this year's housing renovation project. I have never laid a wood floor before, but my brother-in-law has....how hard can it be? Exhausting, yes, but doable. I just can't stand the carpet anymore--after 12 years of abuse, it has got to go, or I will.

So that's where I'm investing my IRA money this year....

[Dr.Phool]

29. On a positive note.

St. Paddy's Day comes right after the Ides of March. At least we have an excuse to drink. We're taking the opportunity to get better acquainted with some new neighbors from Ireland. And they have a big Yellow Lab.

[MattSh]

52. And what kind of potent potables...

do they mix up in that big yellow lab of theirs?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Demeter]

56. Having Cleaned Up Repeatedly After a Big Yellow Lab

you don't want to know. Trust me!

[Dr.Phool]

58. The Fudd used to prefer beer.

If you sat one down, he'd knock it over and drink it.

That dog could lay on his back, hold a beer bottle in his paws, and drain it. A chip off the old block.

[Roland99]

60. How's this for a positive note???

My gf won her court case today!!!

She's moving here with her kids in 3 weeks!!!


woo hoo!!!!!!!!!

[Dr.Phool]

61. Congrats!

:toast:

Keep your head down. Nasty weather headed your way.My back yard looks like a rice paddy.

[Roland99]

62. yeah, I've been out back at work to make calls and it's flooding back there.

Luckily I park about 20' from the front door so I'm good there.

:)



And thanks!! :)

[Demeter]

66. Happy Trails to You All!

[ozymandius]

16. Senator Sherrod Brown's letter to Geithner and Summers

From Naked Capitalism:

More Calls for Fed Governors Who Actually Saw Crisis Coming, Care About Consumers, and Tolerate, Um, Welcome Transparency

One of the bizarre things that occurs whenever particular high profile slots are up for grabs is that the discussion rapidly devolves into which candidate A Lot of People Have Heard Of should get it, rather than focusing on selection criteria (which is how most managers go about filling jobs). ...

The letter below, from Senator Sherrod Brown, chairman of the panel that oversees Fed monetary policy, thus puts the focus on the right foot. I agree with the criteria he sets forth, namely, having anticipated the crisis, having a pro-consumer stance, and being willing to release AIG-related e-mails. I’d actually go a bit further and would like someone who supports transparency in areas outside monetary policy (where I can see reason for the Fed to need to insulate itself from political pressure). For instance, the Fed’s refusal to provide information as to who used its various facilities during the crisis is without merit. If the information is sufficiently aged (say released a year in arrears) it will be stale from a trading/counterparty risk standpoint, and hence would pose no danger to market participants, but would be very useful from an analytical perspective.

Text of Sherrod’s letter follows:

Dear Secretary Geithner and Director Summers,

I write to you today to express my concern about the vacancies at the Federal Reserve, both on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and soon in the Vice Chairman’s office. This is the financial equivalent of leaving open vacancies on the United States Supreme Court, and it is essential that we fill these positions.

As Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Policy, with jurisdiction over the Federal Reserve System’s monetary policy functions, I am acutely aware of the importance of monetary policy at the Fed. Both the full Banking Committee and the Economic Policy Subcommittee have examined the causes of the financial crisis and the resulting effects on lending, access to credit, and employment. The evidence presented to the Committee about the role that Fed policy decisions played in the financial crisis and the economic downturn has led me to conclude that the Fed’s monetary policy has focused almost entirely on controlling inflation rather than maximizing employment and that the Fed has too often put banks’ soundness ahead of its other responsibilities. In light of this experience, there are several other important qualifications that I would urge you to consider in selecting the new Vice Chairman and new members of the FOMC:

1. Recognition of the causes of the financial crisis before it occurred.

Many economic experts, including some at the Federal Reserve, failed to anticipate the impending economic crisis. However, there were exceptional people who sounded alarms about the rapidly inflating housing bubble, the proliferation of subprime lending, and the packaging, selling, and investing in toxic financial products by Wall Street. Unfortunately, regulators, including the Fed, ignored or attempted to discredit many of these courageous individuals, rather than heeding their warnings. We need economic policy makers who possess the foresight to identify harmful economic trends, the courage to speak out about the necessity of addressing these practices before they inflict lasting damage to our economy, and the wisdom to listen even if their views are challenged.

2. Demonstrated dedication to protecting consumers and maximizing employment.

For years, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has maintained an almost single-minded focus on inflation. This has been detrimental to the Fed’s other core missions, particularly maximizing employment and protecting consumers. The results of this fixation speak for themselves. The national unemployment rate is more than double the Fed’s statutorily mandated 4 percent unemployment target. The Fed also failed to act on repeated warnings about predatory mortgage lending and credit card abuses. Consumer protection experience is particularly important if the new consumer protection entity were to be housed at the Fed. Our economy will benefit from renewed attention to all of the Fed’s priorities.

3. Commitment to releasing e-mails related to the Fed’s involvement in the AIG bailout.

A growing number of experts – including economists, academics, and former regulators – have called upon the Federal Reserve to release all e-mails, internal accounting documents, and financial models related to AIG’s collapse. The American taxpayers now hold the majority of AIG shares, and they have a right to know how their money is being spent. Providing greater detail about the AIG bailout is particularly important because that episode continues to taint the Fed’s reputation. Focusing on candidates committed to full transparency related to this particular economic event would help to restore the Fed’s stature and credibility in the eyes of many Americans.

The American public has lost a great deal of confidence in the Federal Reserve. Selecting a Vice Chair and FOMC members with the above qualifications will send the message that the Federal Reserve has learned from the financial crisis, and that the Fed’s weaknesses are being addressed with more than just cosmetic changes.

Yves Smith's comment: I note the similarity between his criteria and those from Barry Ritholtz , and have heard similar ideas from others in policy circles. Hopefully sound ideas like these will prevail.

[Demeter]

26. Well, Then, Bernanke Should Resign in Disgrace, Shouldn't He?

Too bad this isn't Japan.

[DemReadingDU]

38. Vacancies!

How many vacancies? 2 or 3?

Some possible nominations...
William Black
Janet Tavakoli
Elizabeth Warren
Joseph Stiglitz

[DemReadingDU]

44. ZeroHedge comments about Senator Brown's letter

3/10/10

We have now reached a point when a Senator has to write a well-intentioned letter to the very administration he serves, (whose sworn duty is to preserve the wealth of all of its constituents, not just Goldman Sachs), with a cautionary tale that continued lying to the general population combined with a culture of opacity and persistent fraud, will lead to a disastrous effect to the economy and to the very fabric of American society. Alas, in a society in which those being lied to extract a satisfaction as great, if not greater, from this process, than those doing the actual lying, this is not too surprising. Sticking our collective heads in the sand has traditionally worked miracles for resolving the bulk of this nation's problems. And with the public sector now demonstrating a preferential treatment for the financial space, at the expense of 99% of the remaining population, it has become obvious US citizens can no longer rely on the US government for procuring the truth. Furthermore, with China now a vassal owner of America via its undisputed creditor status, we may soon lose the protection the government is entrusted with affording its citizens in other realms, from enemies certainly domestic (mostly located in south Manhattan), and very possibly foreign.

Yet, another voice of caution that has recently emerged, and whose message is critical to all, is that of Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian. The Pimco executive has written another very relevant Op-Ed in the Financial Times, "How to handle the sovereign debt explosion" which does not so much disclose new things, as capture the essence of the groundbreaking transformation that is currently occurring within the entire "developed" world, and more specifically, the denial that the vast majority of "experts" are exhibiting when faced with a previously unseen process of unprecedented significance.

more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimcos-el-erian-inability-grasp-seismic-changes-currently-occurring-developed-world


read next posting for comments from Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian

[DemReadingDU]

45. Mohamed El-Erian: How to handle the sovereign debt explosion

3/10/10 How to handle the sovereign debt explosion By Mohamed El-Erian

snip

We should expect (rather than be surprised by) damaging recognition lags in both the public and private sectors. Playbooks are not readily available when it comes to new systemic themes. This leads many to revert to backward-looking analytical models, the thrust of which is essentially to assume away the relevance of the new systemic phenomena.

There is a further complication. Timely recognition is necessary but not sufficient. It must be followed by the correct response. Here, history suggests that it is not easy for companies and governments to overcome the tyranny of backward-looking internal commitments.

Where does all this leave us? Our sense is that the importance of the shock to public finances in advanced economies is not yet sufficiently appreciated and understood. Yet, with time, it will prove to be highly consequential. The sooner this is recognised, the greater the probability of being able to stay ahead of the disruptions rather than be hurt by them.

more...
http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto031020101453310596


Commentary from ZeroHedge

Precisely the same argument can be brought against Ben Bernanke who in numerous public appearances saw no threat of the bubble bursting in 2005-6, and who, unfathomably, sees no threat of a massive-liquidity bubble explosion currently.

The question we need to ask is shy are we getting this critical insight from a member of the private sector? Why is nobody in government addressing this critical issue and bringing the population's attention to this most material of systemic patterns. Instead we bicker over the end of civilization as we know it should Goldman collapse (it won't: it will simply mean that Goldman's 23,500 staffers will finally have to do an honest day's work for once in their lives if they want to get paid), or how many quadrillion it will cost for the government to nationalize healthcare, and every other industry. Yes- we should be getting this warning from the Federal Reserve, and from those who hope to become the Fed's new members - a position which once upon a time was considered an admirable accomplishment yet now puts you roughly in line with the lepers, hookers, wifebeaters and prison rats in the social hierarchy. We should but we don't - all we get from this government is silence. Instead we get a daily barrage from government bought cheerleaders who preach that all is well, and that precisely the warnings of El-Erian and so many others are to be ignored. And the crowning glory of how far our society has fallen is that the vast majority among us chose to believe these lies, and gladly hand over money to buy another share of Lehman brothers which is in liquidation yet still trades.

And somehow Bernie Madoff is in jail for doing just what the government does to us every single day.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimcos-el-erian-inability-grasp-seismic-changes-currently-occurring-developed-world

[DemReadingDU]

48. Jesse comments on Senator Brown's letter

3/11/10
If you read through this letter from US Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who is also the chairman of the Senate Subcommittee on Economic Policy, you will get a grasp of how badly the Fed has mishandled its responsibilities over the past ten years at least.

I thought the Senator was far too kind and reserved in his criticism. Yes, the Fed did focus on inflation. Unfortunately the definition of inflation which they used was inappropriate, since it did not include the obvious asset bubbles which were created by the Fed's own monetary policies.

In addition, the Fed not only neglected its role in consumer protection, it took an activist opposition to the regulation of new financial instruments such as derivatives that has created a position that even today leaves the US in a financially precarious position.

This is particularly galling when one hears of the schemes being concocted by the bank friendly Senators, Dodd, Corker and Shelby, to move more of the weak banking reforms into the Fed, which is itself a private institution owned by these very banks that it will regulate.

This is not the appropriate level of financial reform that the American people deserve. And if you notice to whom Senator Sherrod is addressing his concerns, you will understand my lack of enthusiasm or any change or improvement in this sorry state of affairs.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/03/case-against-fed-from-us-senator.html

[DemReadingDU]

18. Simon Johnson: Greece, the Latest and Greatest Bubble

3/11/10 Greece, the Latest and Greatest Bubble
Simon Johnson

Bubbles are back as a topic of serious discussion, as they were before the financial crisis. The questions today are: (1) Can you spot bubbles? (2) Can policy makers do anything to deflate them gently? (3) Can anyone make money when bubbles get out of control?

Our answers are: (1) Spotting pure equity bubbles may sometimes be hard, but we can always see unsustainable finances supported by cheap credit. (2) Policy makers will not act because all great (and dangerous) bubbles build their own political support; bubbles are invincible, until they collapse. (3) A few investors can do well by betting against such bubbles, but it’s harder than you might think because you have to get the timing right — and that’s much more about luck than skill.

Bubbles are usually associated with runaway real estate prices or emerging market booms or just the stock market gone mad (remember pets.com?). But they are a much more general phenomenon — any time the actual market value for any asset diverges from a reasonable estimate of its “fundamental” value.

To think about this more specifically, consider the case of Greece today. It might seem odd to suggest there is a bubble in a country so evidently under financial pressure, and working so hard to stave off collapse with the help of its neighbors.

But the important thing about bubbles is: Don’t listen to the “market color” (otherwise known as ex-post rationalization); just look at the numbers.

By the end of 2011 Greece’s debt will be around 150 percent of its gross domestic product. (The numbers here are based on the 2009 International Monetary Fund Article IV assessment.) About 80 percent of this debt is foreign-owned, and a large part of this is thought held by residents of France and Germany. Every 1 percentage point rise in interest rates means Greece needs to send an additional 1.2 percent of G.D.P. abroad to those bondholders.

Imagine if Greek interest rates rise to, say, 10 percent. This would be a modest premium for a country with the highest external public debt/G.D.P. ratio in the world, a country that continues (under the so-called “austerity” program) to refinance even the interest on that debt without actually paying a centime out of its own pocket, at the same time as struggling to establish any backing from the rest of Europe. At such interest rates, Greece would need to send at total of 12 percent of G.D.P. abroad per year, once it rolls over the existing stock of debt to these new rates (nearly half of Greek debt will roll over within three years).

This is simply impossible and unheard of for any long period of history.

more...
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/11/greece-the-latest-and-greatest-bubble/

[DemReadingDU]

19. Greece hit by strikes over austerity plan

3/11/10 Greece hit by strikes over austerity plan
Protesters clash with police as more than 20,000 march in capital Athens

Greek police fired tear gas to disperse protesters throwing rocks and firebombs outside Parliament as more than 20,000 people marched through central Athens during a nationwide strike against the government's harsh new austerity measures.

The strike grounded all flights and brought public transport to a halt. State hospitals were left with emergency staff only and all news broadcasts were suspended as workers walked off the job for 24 hours to protest spending cuts and tax hikes designed to tackle the country's debt crisis.

Riot police fired tear gas to disperse rock-throwing protesters at one point of the demonstration as strikers and protesters marched through the capital, banging drums and chanting slogans such as "no sacrifice for plutocracy," and "real jobs, higher pay." People draped banners from apartment buildings reading: "No more sacrifices, war against war."

While their colleagues clashed with groups of protesters, some police joined the demonstration.

About 200 uniformed police, coast guard and fire brigade officers, who cannot go on strike but can hold protests, gathered at a square in the center of the city shortly before the marches got under way.

"The police and other security forces have been particularly hard hit by the new measures because our salaries are very low," said Yiannis Fanariotis, general secretary of one police association. He said the average policeman made about euro1,000-euro1,200 ($1,360-$1,635) a month if weekend and night shifts were included.

Joining the protest "doesn't feel strange, because we are working people like everybody else and we are all shouting out for our rights," he said.

more...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35810315/ns/world_news-europe/

[DemReadingDU]

22. Greece Lifts a Page From Citigroup’s Playbook: Jonathan Weil

3/11/10 Greece Lifts a Page From Citigroup’s Playbook: Jonathan Weil

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Is it too much to ask for the world’s titans of government and finance to speak credibly when they open their mouths? Some of them sure seem to think so, judging by the latest news from the financial-crisis front.

To hear Vikram Pandit tell it, Citigroup Inc. was a healthy institution when it got bailed out by the U.S. government. The problem back in November 2008, Citigroup’s chief executive officer told a congressional oversight panel last week, was that short sellers were driving down its stock price in spite of the bank’s fundamental strength.

At the same hearing, Herb Allison, the assistant Treasury secretary for financial stability, said “there is no too-big- to-fail” guarantee by the U.S. government for Citigroup or any other financial company. He dodged other questions about Citigroup by noting, with no apparent sense of irony, that the Treasury is now its largest shareholder.

Not to be outdone, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou traveled to Washington this week to complain how unfair it was that “unprincipled speculators” were tearing down his country’s markets. Sure, Greece had lied for years about the size of its budget deficit. But what needs to be fixed urgently, he said, is the scourge of credit-default swaps that let investors bet on whether Greece will default on its debt, while European nations mull a possible bailout.

This all has a certain mid-2008 ring to it. Back then, in the months between the U.S. rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and the government-backed mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the talk from Wall Street kingpins and regulators was much the same.

‘Worst is Behind Us’

more...
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-10/greece-lifts-a-page-from-citigroup-s-playbook-jonathan-weil.html

[DemReadingDU]

46. Greek protesters clash with police

3/11/10 Violence erupts in Athens over swingeing spending cuts
General strike disrupts public and transport services

Greek police fired teargas to disperse protesters throwing rocks and firebombs outside parliament today as more than 20,000 people marched through Athens to protest against new austerity measures to tackle the country's debt.

A strike by public and private sector workers brought the country to halt, grounding all flights and stopping public transport. State hospitals were left with only emergency staff, and news broadcasts were suspended.

Strikers and protesters banged drums and chanted slogans such as "no sacrifice for plutocracy" and "real jobs, higher pay". People draped banners from apartment buildings reading: "No more sacrifices, war against war."


The prime minister, George Papandreou, said in Washington last night that demonstrators had the right to protest, but added that the financial crisis was "not this government's fault."


more...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/11/greece-nationwide-strike-austerity-plan

[TalkingDog]

31. The cartoon made me think of one of my new favorite sites:

There, I fixed it.

http://thereifixedit.com/

And the reason the connection is a pathetic and not an ironic one is I'm fully aware than the governments "fixes" often end up like this:

[Warpy]

33. My favorite was the car that had the floor rust and the back seat drop

The owners put in a 2x4 frame to hold the seat up, painted it black, and got it through an inspection!

People always try to keep things going long after they should have been junked and economic systems are no different.

[TalkingDog]

39. oooo....I always love a smooth segue.

That and a shot of tequila....

[Warpy]

47. That combination will make you fall off it like Bush did

Oh, wait...

[Demeter]

57. That's MY Car You're Insulting!

213K on a 1994 Saturn (fiberglass doesn't rust, thank god). So it is a reluctant shifter when it's cold....I don't leave Ann Arbor in it anymore, that's all.

[TalkingDog]

59. Ha! Gotcha beat! 375K on a 1998 SW Saturn Wagon

I've had the clutch replaced 4 times (there was an undiscovered leaky seal on 2 of those), a rebuilt motor and the only thing wrong with that puppy is the recent dent in the rear bumper. I hydroplaned off a sharp snowy curve and a young tree and I had a "coming together" as they say in NASCAR.

My mechanic had never worked on one before because the Saturn cult runs strong. But he's been constantly impressed with this car. Seriously, the older Saturns were what introductory cars were supposed to be, inexpensive, solid and long lasting. But noooooo....they had to go and start making SUV type crap with metal and fancy stuff like electric windows.....


(and I'm pretty sure I can detach the bumper and use a rubber mallet to get that dent out....mostly)

[Dr.Phool]

35. I stopped for a couple of beers yesterday afternoon.

A woman came in and sat down a couple of stools away. Turns out she's a Toyota Saleswoman. At the dealer where I bought our Prius. She's got her talking points fine tuned, and the propaganda swallowed. According to her, Toyota's problems are all just part of a big government conspiracy because they own 55% of GM, and they want to run Toyota out of business.

She claimed that GM recalled 1.5 BILLION cars last year. I guess that's all 6 GM produced cars that everyone owns.

I think my next car will be a Ford.

[TalkingDog]

41. Where'd she learn Math.... Fox News?

[Demeter]

67. It May Be a World-Wide Number?

[UpInArms]

32. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.403 Change -0.042 (-0.05%)

Daily Sound Bites 03.11

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-03-11-1323-Daily_Sound_Bites_03_11.html



...more...

Oil May Finally Break Support Amid Chinese Tightening Fears

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2010-03-11-1023-Oil_May_Finally_Break_Support.html

Oil prices may finally break out lower as China's inflation figures spark fears of imminent monetary tightening for the world's second-largest crude consumer.

Commodities - Energy

Oil May Finally Break Support Amid Chinese Tightening Fears

Crude Oil (WTI)       $81.58       -$0.51      -0.62%

Prices remain wedged between resistance at $82.23 and a rising trend line established from the bottom in early February. The percent-change correlation between the WTI contract and the MSCI World Stock Index remains significant at 0.78, reflecting the strong influence of risk sentiment. Trading is mixed on European exchanges but US index futures are trading lower, pointing to a “risk off” day on Wall Street. China’s inflation figures look to be the catalyst for selling after a report showed that Consumer Prices rose 2.7 percent in the year to February, putting the annual inflation rate at a 16-month high and sparking fears that Beijing will step up efforts to clamp down on credit growth. Chine is the world’s second-largest crude consumer, so a material slow-down there would bode quite ill for prices. A break lower exposes $77.53. Weekly US Jobless Claims and Trade Balance figures headline the economic calendar going forward.



...more...

[Festivito]

36. Debt: 03/09/2010 12,552,703,515,296.83 (UP 6,331,513,417.10) (Tue)

(Up a bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,061,801,246,857.28 + 4,490,902,268,439.55
UP 542,827,835.74 + UP 5,788,685,581.36

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,936,478 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,631.99.
A family of three owes $121,895.97. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 10,161,819,127.92.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,774,546,085.28.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,258,442,234.23.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 108 reports in 160 days of FY2010 averaging 5.95B$ per report, 4.02B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,048 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/09/2010 12,552,703,515,296.83 BHO (UP 1,925,826,466,383.75 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,642,874,511,785.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,466,557,480,009.76 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********

183,793,071,878.65 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4300693&mesg_id=4300902

[Festivito]

70. Debt: 03/10/2010 12,544,389,439,808.45 (DOWN 8,314,075,488.38) (Wed)

(Up a bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,062,096,950,036.58 + 4,482,292,489,771.87
UP 295,703,179.30 + DOWN 8,609,778,667.68

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,945,118 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,603.94.
A family of three owes $121,811.82. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 10,190,962,020.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,793,974,680.07.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,279,258,585.79.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 109 reports in 161 days of FY2010 averaging 5.82B$ per report, 3.94B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,047 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/10/2010 12,544,389,439,808.45 BHO (UP 1,917,512,390,895.37 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,634,560,436,296.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,438,599,746,883.83 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********

183,680,080,171.28 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4302191&mesg_id=4302365

[Roland99]

37. 9:51am - Who put the banana peel on the floor?

Dow 10,527 -40 -0.38%
Nasdaq 2,350 -9 -0.39%
S&P 500 1,141 -5 -0.42%
GlobalDow 1,969 -7 -0.37%
Gold 1,110 +2 +0.20%
Oil 81.63 -0.46 -0.56%

[TalkingDog]

53. Randomly intersecting search terms

http://www.google.com/trends?q=closing,+services,+jobs,+layoff,+tax+revenue&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=all&date=all&sort=3

What is interesting is not the search volume, but the increase in the news reference volumes.

Someone more versed at economics might be able to do something more relevant to stock markets.