STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 16, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 15, 2010

Dow... 10,642.15 +17.46 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,362.21 -5.45 (-0.23%)
S&P 500... 1,150.51 +0.52 (+0.05%)
Gold future... 1,106 +4.10 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69 0.00 (-0.08%)
30-Year Bond 4.63 +0.00 (+0.09%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Building Permits Feb
Briefing.com 610K
Consensus 601K
Prior 622K

08:30 Housing Starts Feb
Briefing.com 550K
Consensus 570K
Prior 591K

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.7%

14:15 FOMC Rate Decision

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[rfranklin]

24. U.S. Housing Starts Drop 5.9%

Must be good news, futures are rising...

U.S. housing starts drop 5.9% to 575,000 rate
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. housing starts fell about 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 575,000 in February as several massive snow storms hit the East and South, according to data released Tuesday by the Commerce Department. New construction was down in the Northeast and South, but up in the Midwest and West. Starts of single-family homes fell 0.6% to a 499,000 pace, while starts of large condos and apartment building plunged 43%. In the past year, starts of single-family homes are up 39%, while starts of multifamily units are down 41%. Building permits - which aren't as affected by weather as starts are - dropped 1.6% to 612,000 in February. Permits for single-family homes fell 0.2% to a 503,000 rate.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil below $80 ahead of Fed, OPEC meetings

SINGAPORE – Oil prices extended losses below $80 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors eyed meetings of the U.S. central bank and OPEC for trading catalysts. ...

Oil prices have ricocheted between $70 and $80 for most of the last nine months as crude demand recovered from last year's global recession but remains weak in developed countries. ...

The oil ministers of Iran and Venezuela, countries that usually support output cuts to boost prices, have signaled recently they don't expect the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to change production quotas when it meets Tuesday in Vienna.

Investors will also be eyeing this week's Federal Reserve meeting for any clues about when it may start raising record-low interest rates.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

36. Oscillate Rather Than Ricochet

[ozymandius]

3. Fed weighs how and when to signal higher rates

WASHINGTON – Debate is heating up within the Federal Reserve over how and when to signal that the days of record-low interest rates are numbered.

A rate hike isn't imminent. But at their meeting Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will likely focus on how to telegraph that higher rates are coming once the economic recovery is more deeply rooted. Eventually, Fed policymakers will need to start bumping up rates to head off inflation. ....

Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, has pushed to change the signal. At the Fed's last meeting in late January, Hoenig dissented from the "extended period" pledge. He favored saying rates would stay low for "some time." He thought that would give the Fed more flexibility to start raising rates. ....

Even though the jobless rate hasn't budged for two months and companies aren't cutting as many jobs as they did a year ago, hiring is tepid. Consumer and business spending is sufficient to keep the economy growing only modestly. The housing and commercial real-estate markets are wobbly. Lending remains tight. ...

That helps explain why the Fed is expected to keep its key rate at a record low Tuesday. It has held its target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. In response, commercial banks' prime lending rate, used to peg rates on certain credit cards and consumer loans, has remained about 3.25 percent — its lowest in decades.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100316/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_interest_rates

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozymandius]

4. President would tap NY Fed chief under Dodd bill

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The New York Federal Reserve Bank's president would become a political appointee and bank chiefs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon could no longer sit on the board of their regulator under a proposal unveiled by the head of the Senate Banking Committee on Monday.

As part of a new bill aimed at revamping financial regulation after the worst banking crisis since the 1930s, Senator Christopher Dodd's plan gives the president the power to name the head of the most important regional Fed bank.

"The bill clamps down on conflicts of interest at the Federal Reserve, making the head of the New York Fed, for example, a position appointed by the president of the United States and not hand-picked by the very bankers the New York Fed is responsible for regulating," the Connecticut Democrat told reporters as he unveiled his bill. ....

The bill also proposes creating a second vice chairman of the Fed's Washington-based Board of Governors, who would be in charge of supervision and testify to Congress twice a year -- a move meant to sharpen the central bank's focus on regulation.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100315/bs_nm/us_financial_regulation_governance

[ozymandius]

5. 6 key points of the financial regulation legislation

Each point in this article is accompanied with elaborative extrapolation. - ozy

1 A Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, housed inside the Federal Reserve, would write and enforce rules protecting borrowers from abuse by lenders.

2 A Financial Stability Oversight Council, chaired by the Treasury secretary, would coordinate federal efforts to identify and manage risks to the financial system and the broader economy.

3 A new process would allow for the liquidation of large, failing financial firms.

4 Credit-rating agencies would be regulated and liable for errors.

5 Banks would face new limits on trading and investment activities.

6 Some renovations would be made to the structure of federal banking regulation.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/15/AR2010031503880.html

[Ghost Dog]

17. Rendering the directors of credit-rating agencies personally liable for "errors"

sounds like a very, very good idea.

The rest of that list doesn't look bad, either.

Now I'll have to spend the rest of today thinking deeply about the details, thanks, ozy ;)

How long do we have to wait on your Senate?

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Don't get too wrapped up in the bill, yet.

Proposals and finished product are often completely different critters.

I'd be amazed if:
A) this is done before November elections
B) the finished product doesn't weaken oversight

[Ghost Dog]

26. Ya don't say.

(:ironic smile:).

But, if anyone can do it, you people can.

Just do it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. I trust Dodd to work out a measure

that when printed, would only be useful on the bottom of a bird cage.

[FarCenter]

32. Does it do anything to fix the "Office of Thrift Supervision"?

Most of the mortgage market shenanigans were done by firms supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision. For example, Countrywide, Golden West, IndyMac, and WaMu were all supervised by OTS.

[FarCenter]

35. It appears that the OTS is eliminated!

Good move. According to http://banking.senate.gov/public/_files/FinancialReformSummary231510FINAL.pdf

 Clear Lines of Responsibility: Replaces confusing regulation riddled with dangerous loopholes, with clear lines of responsibility.

 FDIC: will regulate state banks and thrifts of all sizes and bank holding companies of state banks with assets below $50 billion.

 OCC: will regulate national banks and federal thrifts of all sizes and the holding companies of national banks and federal thrifts with assets below $50 billion. The Office of Thrift Savings is eliminated, existing thrifts will be grandfathered in, but no new charters for federal thrifts.

 Federal Reserve: will regulate bank and thrift holding companies with assets of over $50 billion, where the Fed’s capital market experience will enhance its supervision. As a consolidated supervisor, the Federal Reserve can see risks whether they lie in the bank holding company or its subsidiaries. They will be responsible for finding risk throughout the system. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve will be responsible for supervision and will report semi-annually to Congress.

 Dual Banking System: Preserves the dual banking system, leaving in place the state banking system that governs most of our nation’s community banks.

[ozymandius]

6. Lehman Whistle-Blower's Fate: Fired

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ousted a whistle-blower just weeks after he raised red flags about the securities firm's accounting in 2008.

Matthew Lee, a 14-year Lehman veteran, was let go in late June 2008 amid steep losses at the firm as it tried to maneuver through the global financial crisis. Earlier that month, he had raised concerns with Lehman's auditor, Ernst & Young, that the securities firm was temporarily moving $50 billion in assets off its balance sheet.

This accounting strategy helped to mask the risks Lehman was taking amid scrutiny by investors and regulators about the health of Wall Street firms. ...

The report says Ernst & Young never mentioned Mr. Lee's concerns to Lehman's board. In a statement, Ernst & Young said that Lehman's management investigated Mr. Lee's allegations and informed the board that "the allegations were unfounded and there were no material issues identified." ...

In June 2008, Lehman's board instructed Ernst & Young to investigate Mr. Lee's allegations. An auditing team interviewed Mr. Lee on June 12, according to the bankruptcy report, at which point he raised the issue of Repo 105, the report says.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704588404575124134271085018.html

[ozymandius]

11. Wray: Timmy-Gate: Did Geithner Help Hide Lehman Fraud?

Just when you thought that nothing could stink more than Timothy Geithner’s handling of the AIG bailout, a new report details how Geithner’s New York Fed allowed Lehman Brothers to use an accounting gimmick to hide debt. The report, which runs to 2200 pages, was released by Anton Valukas, the court-appointed examiner. It actually makes the AIG bailout look tame by comparison. It is now crystal clear why Geithner’s Treasury as well as Bernanke’s Fed refuse to allow any light to shine on the massive cover-up underway. ...

Geithner told Congress that he has never been a regulator. That is a quite honest assessment of his job performance, although it is completely inaccurate as a description of his duties as President of the NYFed. Apparently, Geithner has never met an accounting gimmick that he does not like, if it appears to improve the reported finances of a Wall Street firm. We will leave to the side his own checkered past as a taxpayer, although one might question the wisdom of appointing someone who is apparently insufficiently skilled to file accurate tax returns to a position as our nation’s chief tax collector. What is far more troubling is that he now heads the Treasury—which means that he is not only responsible for managing two regulatory units (the FDIC and OCC), but also that he has got hold of the government’s purse strings. How many more billions or trillions will he commit to a futile effort to help Wall Street avoid its losses?

Geithner has denied that he played any direct role in the AIG bail-out—a somewhat implausible claim given that he was the President of the NYFed and given that this was a monumental and unprecedented action to funnel government funds to AIG’s counterparties. He may try to deny involvement in the Lehman deals. (Again, this is implausible. Lehman executives claimed they “gave full and complete financial information to government agencies”, and that the government never raised significant objections or directed that Lehman take any corrective action. In fairness, the SEC also overlooked any problems at Lehman. But here is what is so astounding about the gimmicks: Lehman used “Repo 105” to temporarily move liabilities off its balance sheet—essentially pretending to sell them although it promised to immediately buy them back. The abuse was so flagrant that no US law firm would sign off on the practice, fearing that creditors and stockholders would have grounds for lawsuits on the basis that this caused a “material misrepresentation” of Lehman’s financial statements. The court-appointed examiner hired to look into the failure of Lehman found “materially misleading” accounting and “actionable balance sheet manipulation.” (here) But just as Arthur Andersen had signed off on Enron’s scams, Ernst & Young found no problem with Lehman. ...

What did Timmy know, and when did he know it?

Third point. To the extent that debt is hidden, financial institution balance sheets present an overly rosy picture—of course, that is the purpose of the financial “innovations”. Enron did it; AIG did it; Lehman did it. What about Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman? We now know that the New York Fed subjected Lehman to three wimpy “stress tests”, all of which it failed. Timmy’s Fed then allowed Lehman to construct its own sure-to-pass “stress” test. (We know, of course, that the test was absolutely meaningless because, well, Lehman passed the test and then immediately failed spectacularly. Timmy then let the biggest banks run their own stress tests, which they (surprise, surprise) managed to pass.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/wray-timmy-gate-did-geithner-help-hide-lehman-fraud.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

[Robbien]

31. At Lehman, Watchdogs Saw It All

Lehman Brothers executives weren’t the only ones in the building when they were moving billions of dollars in liabilities off their books at the end of each quarter with magic accounting. So were the Feds, The New York Times’s Andrew Ross Sorkin writes in his latest DealBook column.

Regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York Fed sent emergency teams to monitor most of the big banks after the collapse of Bear Stearns. They had constant access to Lehman’s books, and not just the dolled up quarterly reporting. So where was the government while all this “materially misleading” accounting was going on?

It now appears that the federal government itself either didn’t appreciate the significance of what it saw (we’ve seen that movie before with regulators waving off tips about Bernard L. Madoff). Or perhaps they did appreciate the significance and blessed the now-suspect accounting anyway, Mr. Sorkin writes.

Read the column here, or after the jump.

At Lehman, Watchdogs Saw It All

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Almost two years ago to the day, a team of officials from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York quietly moved into the headquarters of Lehman Brothers. They were provided desks, phones, computers — and access to all of Lehman’s books and records. At any given moment, there were as many as a dozen government officials buzzing around Lehman’s offices.

These officials, whose work was kept under wraps at the time, were assigned by Timothy Geithner, then president of the New York Fed, and Christopher Cox, then the S.E.C. chairman, to monitor Lehman in light of the near collapse of Bear Stearns.

Similar teams from the S.E.C. and the Fed moved into the offices of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and others.

There were plenty of reasons to send in these SWAT teams. With investors on edge about the veracity of valuations on Wall Street — and with hedge fund managers like David Einhorn publicly questioning Lehman’s numbers — the government examiners rifled through Lehman’s accounts. They also interviewed executives about various decisions, and previewed the quarterly earnings reports.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/16/at-lehman-watchdogs-saw-it-all/

[rfranklin]

13. They moved $50 billion in "assets" off their balance sheet?

Perhaps they mean debt?

[ozymandius]

14. Debt, yes.

I read that as debt that had been collateralized. As I read it - the collateral was worth dirt.

[Po_d Mainiac]

21. No they were considered assets..Garbage IOU's

The REPO agreements made it look like they had been sold, and they had the cash in hand.

[ozymandius]

16. Hooray for the blogs!

"Biggest Scandal In US History." CJR: "Blogs Beat The Press."

by Dailykos diarist bobswern:

Today, the Columbia Journalism Review tells us that if you want to know about what L. Randall Wray, William Black's colleague at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, has just referred to as "the biggest scandal in U.S. history" ("in terms of dollar cost"), you won't be getting the scoop from the MSM. You've gotta' read Naked Capitalism and Zero Hedge for the real deal.

That's the Columbia Journalism Review, folks! "The Blogs Beat the Press on the Lehman Brothers Scandal."

From CJR:

...Look, I know that Lehman collapsed a year and a half ago, but this is a major story--one that finally gets awfully close to putting the crimes in the crisis. I'll go ahead and say it: If you've wanted to know about the Valukas report and its implications, you've been better served by reading Zero Hedge and Naked Capitalism than you have The Wall Street Journal or New York Times. This on the biggest financial news story of the week--and one of the biggest of the year. These papers have hundreds of journalists at their disposal. The blogs have one non-professional writer and a handful of sometime non-pro-journalist contributors...

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The rest of this post references the story posted on this thread at position #11.

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Wow!! n/t

[ozymandius]

7. Former chief of Park Avenue Bank charged with TARP fraud (posted here yesterday)

NEW YORK -- The former chief executive of a New York bank shut down by regulators last week was arrested Monday for attempting to steal from the taxpayer-funded bailout program, marking the first time criminal charges have been filed in connection with alleged abuse of the government's financial-rescue effort.

According to a 10-count criminal complaint unsealed Monday in federal court in Manhattan, Charles Antonucci Sr., former president and chief executive of privately owned Park Avenue Bank, orchestrated an elaborate scheme to defraud the bank and its regulators.

Investigators said Antonucci tried to fraudulently obtain $11.3 million from the Treasury Department's Troubled Assets Relief Program by lying about the bank's capital levels in its November 2008 application for bailout funds. He told regulators that he had invested $6.5 million of his personal money to boost the bank's capital, the complaint said, even though the investment was made with the bank's own funds through a "series of deceptive, round-trip loan transactions" devised by Antonucci. ...

The charges in the complaint include embezzlement, bank bribery, wire fraud, bank mail fraud, making a counterfeit certificate of deposit, fraud on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and making false statements on its TARP application. Antonucci, unshaven and wearing a red-hooded sweat shirt, appeared before a U.S. magistrate judge Monday and was released on a personal recognizance bond of $2 million. He did not enter a plea. Antonucci's attorney, Charles Stillman, said that he was studying the charges and declined to comment further.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/15/AR2010031502502.html

[Name removed]

39. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hamerfan]

8. Lucky us!

A Goldman Sachs VP is going to address the local university (Western Washington University).

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2010/03/15/1339813/goldman-sachs-vp-to-speak-at-wwu.html


Gee, I wonder what he'll have to talk about. A carer in crime, perhaps? Or selling your soul for a few shekels?

[ozymandius]

9. Ooooh. Sounds like an opportunity for mischief to me.

The reader comments remind me of the effect of throwing a rock into a hornet's nest.

[hamerfan]

10. Great minds, my friend,

Great minds.... :toast:

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. I'm sure to have something in the back of the

fridge worthy of being presented to a vampire squid.
:toast:

[Ghost Dog]

19. Noticed lots of hornets buzzing around, lately, over here as well as over there.

It's like trying to change the course of a Titanic, ain't it.

Bridge to engine-room... Ding ding.

[ozymandius]

12. Strategic default: In come the waves again

John Hussman notes that the very large non-subprime Alt-A and Option ARM cohort interest-rate resets lie ahead of us and not behind us in his latest weekly market commentary. In my view, this is a very big problem for the US banking sector and economy because of the credit writedowns these resets will generate.

For his part, Hussman says:

I should note parenthetically that as you read reports about the mortgage and credit markets during the next few months, it will be extremely important to pay attention to the time period being discussed. For example, we are seeing articles with very recent datelines that are drawing conclusions based on relatively pleasant data from the fourth quarter of last year, which reflects the end of the reset lull that was completed with the low in September.

To reiterate what the reset curve looks like here, the 2010 peak doesn’t really get going until July-Sep (with delinquencies likely to peak about 3 months later, and foreclosures about 3 months after that). A larger peak will occur the second half of 2011. I remain concerned that we could quickly accumulate hundreds of billions of dollars of loan resets in the coming months, and in that case, would expect to see about 40% of those go delinquent based on the sub-prime curve and the delinquency rate on earlier Alt-A loans. Notably, by 2005, the credit score allowed on Alt-A loans fell to about 620, which is consistent with sub-prime. And not surprisingly, the later in the housing bubble the loan was made, the higher the delinquency rate has been right out of the gate.

This is something I am on to and have mentioned a few times in the past few months. As I wrote last month in The coming wave of second mortgage writedowns:

When the crisis first developed, in February of 2007, it was subprime where the worries were, with the lion’s share of writedowns coming from mark-to-market losses in the securitisation market. However, subprime was a relatively small part of the overall market, making up 14% of loans outstanding at that time. Alt-A loans were 27% and prime loans were 57% respectively of loans outstanding according to a Banc of America Securities report.

As the 2004-2007 cohorts of Alt-A option ARM mortgages have started to reset and prime borrowers have come under stress, we have started to see defaults in markets which are an order of magnitude larger than subprime.

The same dynamics will be at play here that were at play during the meltdown in subprime, except this time we are talking mainly about prime borrowers. Remember, this is and has always been a credit crisis, not a subprime mortgage crisis. It is the result of lax regulation, easy money and lending recklessness on a mammoth scale that goes far beyond subprime.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/03/strategic-default-in-come-the-waves-again.html

[ozymandius]

15. EU Finance Ministers Fail to Agree on Hedge-Fund Restrictions

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- European Union finance ministers failed to agree on proposed rules to regulate hedge funds and private equity firms in the 27-nation region, an EU official said.

The Spanish EU presidency feels a few more weeks are needed to find consensus, said the official, who can’t be identified because the discussions are private. The aim remains to reach agreement during the first half of the year, said the official. ...

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling has significant concerns over the proposed law, a U.K. government official said yesterday. Michel Barnier, the EU’s financial services commissioner, defended the proposals for hedge-fund rules last week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner expressed concerns they were protectionist in a letter sent earlier this month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJ7aoYaTbwJQ&pos=6

[Festivito]

18. Debt: 03/12/2010 12,575,678,862,901.61 (UP 199,372,553.14) (Fri)

(Up a little. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. I know it's a tired old statement, but how long does one take before taking an idea for granted. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,092,153,517,935.97 + 4,483,525,344,965.64
UP 363,901,611.09 + DOWN 164,529,057.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,962,398 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,702.94.
A family of three owes $122,108.83. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 11,202,733,550.03.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,468,489,033.35.
The average for the last 28 days would be 8,001,952,535.74.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 111 reports in 163 days of FY2010 averaging 6.00B$ per report, 4.08B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,045 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/12/2010 12,575,678,862,901.61 BHO (UP 1,948,801,813,988.53 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,665,849,859,389.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,491,013,488,817.87 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********

198,397,484,092.29 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4306919&mesg_id=4306955

[Festivito]

43. Debt: 03/15/2010 12,636,662,956,140.07 (UP 60,984,093,238.46) (Mon)

(Up big. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,152,640,856,906.57 + 4,484,022,099,233.50
UP 60,487,338,970.60 + UP 496,754,267.86

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,988,318 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,896.9.
A family of three owes $122,690.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 13,573,274,487.57.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,501,292,141.30.
The average for the last 31 days would be 9,194,798,846.42.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 112 reports in 166 days of FY2010 averaging 6.49B$ per report, 4.38B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,042 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 22.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/15/2010 12,636,662,956,140.07 BHO (UP 2,009,785,907,226.99 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,726,833,952,628.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,598,158,992,224.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon

259,091,072,267.11 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4308389&mesg_id=4308431

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. Perhaps the Judiciary Committee will grow a pair

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/15/senator-kaufman-fraud-still-at-the-heart-of-wall-street/

But that’s not all – he actually lays out the parameters of what should be, if our legal institutions still functioned, a compelling case against Goldman.

“Following these transactions, Goldman Sachs and other investment banks underwrote billions of Euros in bonds for Greece. The questions being raised include whether some of these bond offering documents disclosed the true nature of these swaps to investors, and, if not, whether the failure to do so was material.”

“These bonds were issued under Greek law, and there is nothing necessarily illegal about not disclosing this information to bond investors in Europe. At least some of these bonds, however, were likely sold to American investors, so they may therefore still be subject to applicable U.S. securities law. While “qualified institutional buyers” (QIBs) in the U.S. are able to purchase bonds (like the ones issued by Greece) and other securities not registered with the SEC under Securities Act of 1933, the sale of these bonds would still be governed by other requirements of U.S. law. Specifically, they presumably would be subject to the prohibition against the sale of securities to U.S. investors while deliberately withholding material adverse information.”

[DemReadingDU]

27. Senator Kaufman speech

3/15/10 The Rule of Law and Wall Street
Senator Ted Kaufman, Delaware


Conclusion

Mr. President, last week’s revelations about Lehman Brothers reinforce what I’ve been saying for some time. The folly of radical deregulation has given us financial institutions that are too big to fail, too big to manage, and too big to regulate. If we have any hope of returning the rule of law to Wall Street, we need regulatory reform that addresses this central reality.

As I said more than a year ago: "At the end of the day, this is a test of whether we have one justice system in this country or two. If we don’t treat a Wall Street firm that defrauded investors of millions of dollars the same way we treat someone who stole 500 dollars from a cash register, then how can we expect our citizens to have faith in the rule of law? For our economy to work for all Americans, investors must have confidence in the honest and open functioning of our financial markets. Our markets can only flourish when Americans again trust that they are fair, transparent, and accountable to the laws."

The American people deserve no less.


http://kaufman.senate.gov/press/floor_statements/statement/?id=de804dbb-6dc3-4537-8c5d-81496714ed73
or
http://kaufman.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/3-15-10%20The%20Rule%20of%20Law%20and%20Wall%20Street1.pdf

[TalkingDog]

34. I think it's going to take George Washington's double set

to get them to do anything but sit on their hands.

[Robbien]

28. Old-Timers Headed to Federal Prison

SAN DIEGO (CN) - Two old men were sentenced Monday to 5-year prison terms for ripping off 14 banks for $61 million, and tax evasion. Sterling Pirtle, 73, and Ronald Allen Fisher, 69, were also ordered to pay $61.2 million in restitution for the scam they ran out of their Commercial Money Center, in Escondido and Las Vegas.

The men defrauded banks through selling pools of fraudulent subprime equipment leases.
"The defendants included $70 million worth of fraudulent leases in the pools they sold to the financial institutions," the U.S. Attorney's Office said.

"Before it declared bankruptcy, CMC obtained over $300 million from financial institutions through its sale of subprime equipment lease pools.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/03/16/25579.htm


Banksters don't like people bundling non-existent loans in with good loans and selling the whole bundle to banksters. That's fraud.

It is only legal when banksters do it.

[Robbien]

29. E&Y has an Ethics Hotline

From E&Y's website:

The EY/Ethics Hotline is a method for reporting conduct that may be unethical, illegal, in violation of professional standards, or otherwise inconsistent with the Ernst & Young Global Code of Conduct.

Before contacting EY/Ethics, we encourage you to consider whether or not you can directly raise your concern with someone at Ernst & Young.

If you do not feel comfortable doing so, or do not know whom to contact, you can make a report to Ernst & Young on this website or alternatively by calling your local EY/Ethics Hotline number.

http://www.businessinsider.com/night-links-what-you-need-to-know-right-this-second-2010-3


Considering all the illegal things E&Y considers ethical, what could possibly qualify as unethical for those crooks?

[Robbien]

33. Goldman Using Derivative Clout In Collateral

Goldman Sachs is using its clout as one of the largest over-the-counter derivative traders to force hedge funds to put up more cash collateral for trades, while it puts up less for its own trades.

<snip>

At the end of last year, Goldman collected collateral representing 57% of outstanding OTC assets, while it put up 16%. . .
In 2008 Goldman collected 45% while it put up 18%
in 2007 Goldman collected 32% while it put up 19%

http://www.emii.com/Articles/2446225/Derivatives/Derivatives-Articles/Goldman-Using-Derivative-Clout-In-Collateral.aspx

While it is not surprising Goldman is demanding more collateral, the fact that Goldman today is putting up less collateral than it was putting up in 2007 is surprising. Who are the idiotic counter-parties to Goldman's deals who are requiring less collateral these days?

[VanW]

37. Egypt TV Shows Mubarak for First Time Since Surgery

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak appeared on television today for the first time since undergoing surgery in Germany this month, ending a public absence that fueled concern about his health.

Mubarak, 81, appeared on the state-run Nile News television sitting at a table and talking to his doctors at Heidelberg University Hospital, where he had his gall bladder removed on March 6.

“He looks forward to returning to normal activity,” Dr. Markus Buechler of the hospital said in a televised statement. “His medical and general condition is improving in a satisfactory manner.”

Egypt’s benchmark stock index, the EGX30 Index, gained 1.8 percent to 6,465.65 at the close in Cairo, ending a three-day losing streak, as investor concern over the health of Mubarak following his operation waned. Mubarak has ruled the Arab world’s most populous country for 28 years, the longest period of any leader since the overthrow of the monarchy in 1952.

Investors concerned about Mubarak’s health had pushed the measure this week to its biggest three-day drop since November. Unlike his two predecessors, Mubarak hasn’t appointed a vice president and has no designated successor. He has handed power temporarily to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601104&sid=a9H22356xd0s


Still a lot of tension in Egypt, seems like.

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Roland99]

38. GE states dividends to raise next year

http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/44334?source=feed

General Electric (GE +3.1%) says it expects to raise its dividend next year, indicating more comfort in its earnings outlook and its ability to build up cash. Prior to its big cut 13 months ago, GE had historically kept dividends at about 40% of earnings.

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozymandius]

44. Jeebus! Did we have another spammer?

We can all be flattered that our work on the SMW garners this much attention. But damn! That's twice in just a few days we've had deleted messages on this thread.

What gives?

[CatholicEdHead]

45. Yep, we had three posts by the same spambot today

[Demeter]

46. The Market Graphs Don't Go Past 11:30

Did the market have a half day?