STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday March 22, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 19, 2010

Dow... 10,741.98 -37.19 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,374.41 -16.87 (-0.71%)
S&P 500... 1,159.90 -5.93 (-0.51%)
Gold future... 1,107 -20.60 (-1.83%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69 +0.01 (+0.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.57 -0.02 (-0.37%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil drops to near $80, extending Friday's losses

SINGAPORE – Oil prices dropped to near $80 a barrel Monday in Asia, extending losses from Friday as a monthlong rally fizzled out. ...

Oil has bounced between $70 and $85 for most of the last nine months as the global economy recovers from last year's recession. Crude jumped to $83 a barrel last week from $69 early last month on expectations consumer demand will begin to pickup, but U.S. oil inventories have continued to grow in recent weeks. ...

Prices this year have also been supported by low interest rates and investors using commodities such as oil as an asset class.

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil fell 1.25 cents to $2.064 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.08 cents to $2.245 a gallon. Natural gas slid 4.6 cents to $4.123 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. House sends health care overhaul bill to Obama

WASHINGTON – A transformative health care bill is headed to President Barack Obama for his signature as Congress takes the final steps in Democrats' improbable and history-making push for near-universal medical coverage.

On the cusp of succeeding where numerous past congresses and administrations have failed, jubilant House Democrats voted 219-212 late Sunday to send legislation to Obama that would extend coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans, reduce deficits and ban insurance company practices such as denying coverage to people with pre-existing medical conditions. ...

A companion package making a series of changes sought by House Democrats to the larger bill, which already passed the Senate, was approved 220-211. The fix-it bill will now go to the Senate, where debate is expected to begin as early as Tuesday. Senate Democrats hope to approve it unchanged and send it directly to Obama, though Republicans intend to attempt parliamentary objections that could change the bill and require it to go back to the House.

Obama is expected to sign the larger bill early this week. ...

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the legislation awaiting the president's approval would cut deficits by an estimated $138 billion over a decade. For the first time, most Americans would be required to purchase insurance, and face penalties if they refused. Much of the money in the bill would be devoted to subsidies to help families at incomes of up to $88,000 a year pay their premiums.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100322/ap_on_bi_ge/us_health_care_overhaul

---

For me: the private insurance industry's boost from this bill needs to get fixed. As long as there is a private interest and dividend recipients from "insurance" - this work is far from finished.

[ozymandius]

6. Health-Care Fight Shifts to States, Agencies After House Vote

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Health legislation passed yesterday by the U.S. House changes some rules immediately on insurance coverage while leaving much of the fight over how to remake the medical system to federal regulators, states and courts.

Insurers led by UnitedHealth Group Inc. and WellPoint Inc. must cover children with pre-existing health problems at once under the legislation, headed for a Senate vote, and let parents keep children on their insurance plans through age 26. The insurers will also be banned from revoking coverage because of severe illness and from limiting lifetime or annual benefits.

Beyond those changes, it will be up to U.S. regulators and state lawmakers to structure the marketplaces where health plans will compete, write the rules governing their profit and decide which medical benefits must be covered. While insurers may gain as many as 32 million customers, the potential for pumped-up profits remains unclear, said Sheryl Skolnick, a health-industry analyst at CRT Capital Group LLC. ....

The U.S. Health and Human Services Department will have two years to set penalties on hospitals with high readmission rates and longer to test new payment systems for Franklin, Tennessee- based Community Health Systems Inc., the largest U.S. chain, and its rivals. Officials in Idaho and Virginia have promised lawsuits over the bills’ mandate that all Americans get insured. ....

While the measure immediately bans insurers from barring coverage for children with pre-existing conditions, adults won’t be protected until 2014. Until then, they’ll be eligible to join high-risk pools funded by $5 billion in federal grants.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRojOZp3b81k&pos=8

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Bold type: those items need to be fixed. Pronto. I like Alan Grayson's idea: Medicare for all.

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. Medicare for all, has to happen if the public option is off the table

Which should morph into single payer.
:donut:

[ozymandius]

12. Risking HCR overload: The Final Health Care Vote and What it Really Means by Robert Reich

It's not nearly as momentous as the passage of Medicare in 1965 and won't fundamentally alter how Americans think about social safety nets. But the passage of Obama's health care reform bill is the biggest thing Congress has done in decades, and has enormous political significance for the future. ...

Obama's legislation comes from an alternative idea, begun under the Eisenhower administration and developed under Nixon, of a market for health care based on private insurers and employers. Eisenhower locked in the tax break for employee health benefits; Nixon pushed prepaid, competing health plans, and urged a requirement that employers cover their employees. Obama applies Nixon's idea and takes it a step further by requiring all Americans to carry health insurance, and giving subsidies to those who need it. ...

The significance of Obama's health legislation is more political than substantive. For the first time since Ronald Reagan told America government is the problem, Obama's health bill reasserts that government can provide a major solution. In political terms, that's a very big deal.

But Reagan's view of government as the problem is increasingly at odds with a nation whose system of health care relies on large for-profit entities designed to make money rather than improve health; whose economy is dependent on global capital and on global corporations and financial institutions with no particular loyalty to America; and much of whose fuel comes from unstable and dangerous areas of the world. Under these conditions, government is the only entity that can look out for our interests.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-final-health-care-vot_b_507596.html

[Roland99]

16. *sigh*...we could have had SO much more if the ConservaDems weren't so in love with corporate $$$

[Tansy_Gold]

20. But but but! Skinner says now we can start to fix it!

Forgive me if I vent a bit of my rage here.

The notion of "fixing" a bad, bad, bad, bad, bad bill -- which even the illustrious Skinner admits is, well, less than perfect -- implies that there is a will to fix it. If there was a will to fix it, to produce a "better" bill, why wasn't that "better" bill the one that passed?

If this was the best that could be passed, what in heaven's name makes someone like Skinner (or any of the other obamabots on DU) think that there is any will to "fix" it?

My late husband was a firm believer in "it's good enough." If he fixed a leaky faucet and the result was a slower drip, it was "good enough." If he patched a hole in the wall but the plaster patch was still visible through the paint, well, the hole was gone so it was "good enough." Once "good enough" was in place, the initial problem didn't need to be addressed any more. There was, after all, always another repair of something else to be addressed.

The more I think about this whole bill, the more disasters I see coming at us down the road because of it, some sooner, some later.

Yes, people will be able to buy into health insurance. The thing is, MOST people without insurance could have bought individual policies at any time they wanted, provided they could pay for it. Most can't or they would have. Now all they're being told is they have no choice! Now they HAVE to buy it, whether they can afford it or not. Oh, they'll get a subsidy in the form of tax credits, but tax credits really don't pay the bill.

And there's nothing to control the cost of the policy, or the copays or the deductibles. For some people, it's the copays and deductibles that prevent them from seeking health CARE. None of that is changed. It's not changed for the "high risk pool" that those with pre-existing conditions will be corralled into.

But it's "good enough" for the Dems to vote for it -- nothing would ever be good enough for the pukes, so let's not even worry about them. This is the best the Dems could do, but now they're expected to "fix" what they already thought was good enough?

Am I missing something here?

Is Bart Stupid going to vote for something that gives poor women better access to family planning services? Is Max Raucus or Evan Buy going to vote for something that hurts the insurance cartels' ability to contribute to their campaigns, or in Buy's case, hurts his wife's bottom line?

Where are the mandates for affordable drugs? Where are the mandates for universal CARE?

Before my husband died, he had health insurance through Aetna. The bill for his first surgery alone was $114,000. Aetna paid it. I don't know what the bills for the four hospital stays were off the top of my head. Aetna paid them. I also don't know what the annual limit for coverage was, but I have a funny feeling the total would have been pushed toward that limit if the bill for the nursing home was calculated in. Fortunately or unfortunately, the nursing home screwed up and never obtained either my or my husband's signature on his admission papers, and so they were never able to bill either Aetna or us for the three weeks he stayed there. I have no idea what that bill was.

There's no "paperwork reduction act" connected to the new bill. Hospitals and doctors' offices will still have to deal with all the various policies and all the various plans and all the various insurers, which means they will have to hire staff just to deal with that. And the cost will continue to rise.

I've reached the point, today, where I no longer have faith in even my fellow DUers. the self-admitted 38-year-old who runs this site has said it's a good start and now we can start fixing it. Maybe when he's 61, like me, he'll understand that when you're dealing with a "good-enougher," that's where it ends. It's good enough, it's not dripping as fast as it was, so let's go see what we can do about the brakes on the car.


Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

23. All that, and what aren't we being told????

What exactly is in that bill that could come back to haunt us when the global financial Ponzi implodes?

Is this 'health' bill a stealth way to bail out the insurance companies similar to the TARP bailing out the banks?

And many of the 'reforms', don't even take effect for a couple years. So who does this bill, being passed now, actually benefit?

[TalkingDog]

28. Ahhh... the infamous 80% rule. 80% is close enough.

"he'll understand that when you're dealing with a "good-enougher," that's where it ends"

Been there....decided carrots and sticks worked fine. Kisses and Curses. Thank yous and Foot Stomping.

He's coming around.

[Roland99]

29. I agree wholeheartedly.

I am disappointed that Alan Grayson stood down on his promise of bringing the Medicare buy-in as an amendment.

I think this whole thing was a sham merely to gain political points for Nov.

"Look, America! We Democrats passed major healthcare reform despite the GOP obstruction. Vote for us again so we can fix the bill to make it better."


Great...healthcare reform needs reform.

[Demeter]

27. Hope the Pols Don't Sprain Their Arms Patting Themselves On the Back

Of course,for them it would be a covered illness....

[ozymandius]

4. Stock futures signal losses; eyes on pharmas

(Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Monday, with futures for the S&P 500 down 0.52 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.38 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.47 percent.

Shares in the pharmaceutical, healthcare and insurance sectors will be in the spotlight after the House of Representatives gave final approval to a sweeping healthcare overhaul on Sunday, expanding insurance coverage to nearly all Americans and handing President Barack Obama a landmark victory. ...

European stocks were down 0.6 percent in morning trade, with drugmakers losing ground after the House of Representatives approved the healthcare reform, while nagging concerns over Greece's fiscal health weighed on banking stocks.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20100322&id=11172672

[ozymandius]

5. Greece, India, healthcare worries hit stocks

MSCI's all-country world stocks index .MIWD00000PUS was down around a third of a percent, with the emerging markets sub-index .MSCIEF down 0.8 percent.

The falls took this year's gains for emerging market stocks -- widely considered the best bet for returns by many investors -- to barely even.

There was continued confusion about what kind of support Greece might need or get to help it sort out its debt crisis. Germany urged Athens to solve its problems alone while Italy backed European Union support.

At the same time, equity markets in Europe were being dragged lower by the pharma sector, now facing a new healthcare climate in the United States. ...

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 was down 0.5 percent. The STOXX Europe 600 health care index .SXDP lost around 0.6 percent.

India's stock market .BSESN was down 0.7 percent after the central bank's surprise 25-basis point rate hike on Friday, which came after local markets had closed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61718520100322

[rfranklin]

25. Options expired, time to drive the market down and start all over again...

That's my take on it.

[Rhiannon12866]

7. K&R!

:applause:

Best cartoon, yet... :hi:

[ozymandius]

9. Thank you. And good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

[Rhiannon12866]

11. Thank you! Good morning and keep up the good work!

:hangover: :fistbump:

[ozymandius]

8. Junk Bonds Selling at Briskest Pace Since 2007: Credit Markets

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Companies are selling high-yield, high-risk bonds at the fastest pace since credit markets seized up in 2007 amid signs the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

Renault SA, the second-largest French automaker, Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel Corp. and other speculative-grade borrowers issued $24.2 billion of high-yield notes in March through last week, putting this month on course to be the busiest since June 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Sales are up from $16.2 billion in all of February.

Returns on high-yield bonds from around the world average 2.8 percent this month, headed toward the most since September, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Investors are more confident about buying the securities with the economic recovery taking hold. Earnings of companies in the MSCI World index that reported results this year beat analyst estimates by an average 9 percent, according to a Bloomberg analysis. ....

Issuance of non-investment grade bonds is running at the highest since companies sold $34 billion of the debt in June 2007, after slowing last month amid concern that sovereign budget deficits would stifle growth. The securities are rated lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s and Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service. ....

Spreads on U.S. high-yield bonds narrowed 13 basis points last week to 598 basis points, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index, while those on U.S. investment-grade bonds tightened 6 basis points to 168. Both are at lows for the year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDdEMau8KYCw&pos=5

---

Junk bonds sales as they relate to economic recovery is a spurious claim to me. Really, who would want to buy this crap? The spreads have narrowed. This tells me that these junk bonds are selling at fire sale prices. If you have cash - who could resist a bargain like that with such a yield?

[ozymandius]

10. Washington gains dominant role in student loans

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- The House voted 220-211 on Sunday to make Washington the one-stop-shop for cheap student loans and to boost funding for need-based scholarships.

While approving the overhaul of health care, the House also voted along party lines on another of President Obama's top priorities: cutting out bank middlemen who collect subsidies to make education loans guaranteed by the federal government. ...

The proposal was included in the so-called reconciliation bill before the House. The Senate will take up the bill in coming days.

Under the plan, nearly all federally-backed student loans, like Stafford loans, would come straight from the government. The new system would start in July and the government would make approximately $500 billion in direct loans loans in the first 10 years, according to a Congressional Budget Office estimate.

In the current school year, banks issued some $67 billion in federally-backed student loans, while the government directly lent $30 billion, according to the Department of Education.

One of the private-sector lenders with the most on the line is Sallie Mae, which also sells students its own loans at higher interest rates. It has argued that the legislation could cost private banking industry jobs.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/21/news/economy/student_loan_reform/index.htm

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The student loan industry really had this coming to them after witnessing first-hand the abuses built into the system.

[Tansy_Gold]

21. It does virtually nothing for those of us already caught in the

mess made by the for-profit Sallie Mae.

Oh, yeah, Obama is all about looking forward, not looking back. I guess he doesn't wanta see all those supporters who are now "left behind" and may be comin' after him.


Tansy Gold, trying very hard not to quote Satchel Paige

[ozymandius]

13. Obstacles to SEC/DOJ Pursuing Criminal Indictments for Lehman

From Naked Capitalism:

Via an e-mail from someone who has worked at the SEC. Note that the reason for the mention of the Department of Justice is that the SEC cannot bring criminal cases on its own, but has to secure the cooperation of the DoJ.

The SEC-DoJ relationship is not entirely functional, but I suspect that the hangup is likely to be on the SEC Enforcement side. Enforcement only takes a limited number of cases due to limited resources, and as such tends to favor cases that are relatively clear-cut, where it has a good chance of winning. Enforcement may shy away from difficult cases (or settle quickly out of court), unless the Commission makes a specific issue a priority.

But difficulty is not the only factor; another major consideration is whether a similar case has been pursued in the past. Novel cases are considered to be more high-risk, and Enforcement will generally be less likely to take them up unless they are very solid cases, or, again, a high priority from the Commission level.

When Compliance works on referrals to Enforcement, it typically tries to make the case as clearly and as strongly as it can; and ideally, refer to another (successful) case where there are common aspects. When Enforcement receives a referral from Compliance that deals with a range of novel issues, they may be interested in taking the case, but may press Compliance re: what the specific violations are, what evidence it has for them, etc. Similarly, for outside tips and complaints, the issue may be passed off to Compliance to gather further information before Enforcement picks it up and presses charges.

As for Lehman, it is relevant that it would theoretically be a different kind of case than many that have been brought in the past. Especially for criminal convictions, the issue is putting together a case that will convince a jury, which for complex financial issues is a high bar to get over (they were able to do it with Enron, but there were charges–which may have some merit–that it had been “tried in the media” before it ever hit the courtroom.)

Yves here. Note how perverse this is. Sarbanes-Oxley was created to prevent a repeat of Enron abuses and other big corporate accounting frauds that were appallingly common in the dot-bomb era. But the SEC is loath to prosecute….because no criminal cases have yet been brought under Sarbox. So what good is passing new laws if the enforcers are unwilling to use them?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/03/obstacles-to-secdoj-pursuing-criminal-indictments-for-lehman.html

[ozymandius]

14. Gotta go.

I hope you have a fine day, everyone.

:hi:

[Roland99]

15. And may your Monday be a fun day!

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Me, too, Ozy.

The day job calls and I've wasted spent enough time on DU already.

have fun, Marketeers!



Tansy Gold

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.898 Change +0.174 (+0.22%)

US Dollar Struggling to Avoid Collapse through Risk, Rate Speculation

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-03-20-0127-US_Dollar_Struggling_to_Avoid.html

A critical assessment of the dollar’s reaction to sentiment trends these past few weeks reveals something interesting. Not only has the greenback maintained its appeal as a safe haven; but perhaps it is also starting to garner an interest amongst the speculative set for yield potential. This potentially significant – but no doubt measured – development found a rational argument in the price action of last few weeks. Through much of March, sentiment has slowly improved while speculative positioning climbed more aggressively than should realistically have been supported by the fundamental backdrop. Through this period, the dollar would slowly ease off its nine-month highs; but it would conspicuously avoid a true reversal. Then, at the end of this past week, as risk appetite started to retrace, the safe haven currency would step up to the plate with a leveraged advance. If it is indeed the case that the greenback will be prized for its financial stability and tolerated/acquired through a rise in risk appetite, the dollar could soon revive its larger bull trend.

The lynchpin to the dollar’s ability to span both extremes of the risk spectrum is the interest rate outlook. The United States is already considered to be ahead of the curve for economic recovery; however, the implications expansion has for yield (or expected returns on capital invested in the US) requires tangible results. On this front, the forecast for monetary policy has improved considerably over just the past few weeks. In fact, overnight index swaps from Credit Suisse are pricing in approximately 88 basis points worth of rate hikes over the coming 12 months – the most hawkish forecast in a month and notably more bullish than the outlook for the ECB or BoE. This establishes pace; but establishing a stable role for the dollar at the upper echelons of the yield curve is the timing of the first rate hike. This past week, the Federal Reserve discouraged rate hawks by maintaining its warning that rates would remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” However, this does not necessarily put the dollar at a disadvantage. The removal of this phraseology would likely set expectations for the first tightening of the Fed Funds rate to a time frame of two to four meetings following the announcement. This matches up reasonably well with the remarks being dropped at the April gathering given Fed Fund futures have priced in approximately a 50 percent probability of a hike in September and a 67 percent chance of rates rising to at least 0.50 percent by November. In the meantime, the FOMC continues to tighten the policy reins in other areas. Lending facilities established to support liquidity through the financial crisis are scheduled to expire at the end of the month and speculation is running high of a follow up hike to the discount lending rate.

While rate speculation develops in the background, the dollar will remain especially sensitive to large swings in sentiment trends. Looking ahead to next week, there are potential catalysts for the UK (the 2011 budget release) and Euro Zone (the deadline for a Greek bailout plan). Beyond these known events, it would not be out of the question to see an unexpected progress report from China on its asset bubble, the US on its deficit fight or one of the credit rating agencies. Given the capital markets’ rise to new highs recently, the scene is ripe for a bolt of uncertainty to shake unabashed speculative build up. In the meantime, the US docket itself is light. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index is notable for its scope; but it lacks market moving impact. The same can be said about the durable goods and home sales figures – though all this data should be mentally processed for its impact on growth expectations.



...more...

Risks in the Policy Mix

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor089d1ecf-ae8d-11de-8b3c-2768eefeca81

Debt is rising, the global economy is recovering and inflation risks will play a crucial role in determining when major central banks start their exit from their ultra-expansionary stance. On these points, there is broad agreement all round. However, the timing of fiscal and monetary policy tightening to deal with these developments is a bit more contentious, and it is here that our view differs from that of markets and many of our clients. First, while most clients seem to be gearing up for a significant fiscal tightening in 2010-11, we see little sign of such restraint going by the forecasts from our global economics team (see "What Fiscal Tightening?" Global Forecast Snapshots, March 10, 2010). Second, we expect central banks to start tightening policy sooner than markets expect, acting as a counterbalance for weaker fiscal restraint. Finally, we do not see the recovery or the policy tightening process as a linear one. Specifically, we see more downside risks to growth in 2011 than in 2010, and believe that these downside risks will keep central banks from tightening policy aggressively, keeping the door open for inflationary risks to build up.

What fiscal tightening? The expansive fiscal packages deployed to stave off a second Great Depression, in particular in the major economies, have produced large deficits and rising debt. However, now that the worst of the Great Recession is behind us, governments have been talking tough on deficits and debt. If such rhetoric is taken at face value, then it seems logical to assume that fiscal tightening will be upon us in the not-too-distant future. Indeed, this appears to be a widely held view if our conversations with clients are used as a sample. However, debt and deficit forecasts for 2010 and 2011 from our global economics team (see again Global Forecast Snapshots) suggest that fiscal tightening is not likely to be significant. Deficits in the G4 economies will show some moderation, but they will stay quite large, contributing to an increase in debt in 2010 and 2011.

Monetary policy will have to carry a larger burden: If fiscal policy is likely to be less disciplined, then monetary policy will be looked upon to balance out the overall policy stance. Indeed, our forecasts suggest that central banks are gearing up for an earlier exit than markets expect. In addition, growth may surprise to the upside over the next few quarters, particularly in the major economies. Much of the weakness in 1Q10 is likely to be reversed quite quickly, though at differing speeds, with the US leading the charge and the euro area bumping along at the bottom of the G4.

...more...

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 03/18/2010 12,661,296,056,307.25 (UP 21,516,577,665.36) (Thu)

(Up plenty for a day. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,174,187,796,569.78 + 4,487,108,259,737.47
UP 20,986,560,998.86 + UP 530,016,666.50

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,014,238 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,973.18.
A family of three owes $122,919.54. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 12,373,685,214.23.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,661,579,649.96.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,280,263,910.67.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 115 reports in 169 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.45B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,039 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 22.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/18/2010 12,661,296,056,307.25 BHO (UP 2,034,419,007,394.17 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,751,467,052,795.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,622,990,972,013.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********

245,491,570,350.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4312145&mesg_id=4312267

[Festivito]

32. Debt: 03/19/2010 12,661,039,727,506.65 (DOWN 256,328,800.60) (Fri)

(Up very little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,174,432,602,282.13 + 4,486,607,125,224.52
UP 244,805,712.35 + DOWN 501,134,512.95

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,022,878 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,971.21.
A family of three owes $122,913.62. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 12,332,613,900.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,632,829,730.60.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,249,460,425.64.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 116 reports in 170 days of FY2010 averaging 6.48B$ per report, 4.42B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,038 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 22.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/19/2010 12,661,039,727,506.65 BHO (UP 2,034,162,678,593.57 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,751,210,723,994.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,612,893,613,283.17 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********

237,761,601,188.00 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4315070&mesg_id=4315149

[DCBob]

24. It will be interesting to see how Wall Street reacts to the HCR bill passage..

I suspect initially negative but over time it will be taken in stride.

[mbperrin]

26. Of course, health stocks are up! 32 million new customers! Whee!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704117304575137272630255684.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

Alcoa Down, Health Stocks Up

By STEVE GOLDSTEIN

NEW YORK—U.S. stocks opened lower as slipping oil prices dragged down energy stocks and passage of a landmark health-care bill left investors fretting over what Congress will target next.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 26 points, or 0.2%, at 10716 in early trading. Alcoa led the measure's declines, with the aluminum giant down 2.3%. General Electric was also weak, down 1.3%.

The Dow's pharmaceutical components were among the very few stocks in the black on Monday, as drug makers are expected to profit from the expansion of health-care coverage. Merck rose 0.3%, while Pfizer climbed 1.1%.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%, while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index also shed 0.4%. Its energy sector posted the biggest drop, as crude-oil prices fell below $79 per barrel.

Health-care was the only component in the black, after the House of Representatives on Sunday voted along party lines to approve a historic health-care overhaul bill promising to bring health insurance to 32 million Americans and dramatically refashioning the industry's regulation.

Hospital operator Tenet Healthcare rose 6.1%, while insurers UnitedHealth gained 2% and managed-care provider WellPoint rose 1.8%.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. "Health-care was the only component in the black..."

:think:

[ozymandius]

33. HA! The blather says it all.

4:35 pm : The stock market finished the day with solid gains as the Nasdaq provided clear leadership throughout the session, bolstered by strength in semiconductor stocks. The stock market didn't get off to a great start, however, beginning the session with moderate losses. Before the market opened, investors and traders had two major news events to take in -- one domestic, and one overseas. On the home-front, the House of Representatives passed healthcare reform last night by a vote of 219-212. The news lifted a long standing overhang on healthcare stocks, which were strong all day. In particular, hospital stocks like Community Health Systems (CYH 40.51 +2.35) and Tenet Healthcare (THC 6.27 +0.52) put in impressive gains. Internationally, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, made waves by saying that Greece doesn't need financial support, and that European Union leaders shouldn't make the question of aid for Greece the focus of their summit later in the week. She believes that Greece should solve its own debt problems despite other European policy makers urging Germany to back support for Greece. These comments underscored the latest signs of divisions within the euro-zone countries on how best to provide help to Greece. The major European markets, including Great Britain's FTSE, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC, all closed lower today... After the lower open, the major averages quickly rallied higher into positive territory. Also, in early morning action, the dollar was showing considerable strength while commodities like crude oil and natural gas languished with losses. News flow tapered off as the morning progressed, although financial stocks whip-sawed around as Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner stated that he would not accept a financial reform bill that fails to provide strong protection for consumers. Furthermore, he stated that a reform bill must put strong constraints on risk-taking by large financial institutions, protect economy, taxpayers from future crises. Technology stocks also received a jolt when Google (GOOG 557.50 -2.50) announced that Google.CN site will now be redirected to Google.com.HK. The stock initially spiked higher on that news -- while BIDU sold off -- but the gains were short-lived as GOOG finished the day in the red... In the afternoon, commodities reversed course and erased their earlier losses. Crude oil finished higher by $0.68 to $81.65/barrel and gold finished down $8.10 per ounce to $1,099.50, still well off the lows of the day. The turnaround in commodities coincided with a pull-back in the U.S. dollar. Stocks meanwhile, were able to extend their gains a bit, although there wasn't a clear catalyst for the late afternoon uptick. The economic calendar was empty and corporate earnings were very light, with only two companies (PVH, DXPE) scheduled to report after the bell... Looking ahead, existing home sales data will be released at 10:00 ET tomorrow morning with consensus at 5.0 mln units. Before the open tomorrow, there are four companies expected to report earnings, including Walgreens (WAG 35.33 +0.80), KB Home (KBH 17.44 +0.11), and Carnival (CCL 37.91 +0.29). DJ30 +43.91 NASDAQ +20.99 SP500 +5.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1732/2321.8 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2005/953.9 mln/1015

[Coventina]

30. UPDATE: Tiffany Reports Higher Profit, 2010 Expansion Plan

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100322-709844.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF) fiscal fourth-quarter earnings jumped as sales climbed and the upscale jeweler's benefited from the absence of prior-year restructuring charges.

Profit fell short of Wall Street's expectations, as the retailer experienced an increase in lower-margin wholesale diamond sales and poor sales in Japan.

Nonetheless, Tiffany sales increased across all product categories and price points in the fourth quarter, and the company unveiled ambitions plans for the current year, including opening 17 stores.

Predictions of "the demise of luxury and full-priced spending were exaggerated," Chairman and Chief Executive Michael J. Kowalski said during a conference call with analysts Monday. "Many customers were simply waiting for some improvements in their personal incomes and balance sheets prior to resume spending."

Tiffany shares--up 19% over the previous six weeks, including a 52-week high--were recently down 84 cents, or 1.8% to $46.41.

Luxury-goods demand returned over the crucial holiday season, with retailers beginning to replenish stocks at year's end. Tiffany, which operates 220 stores globally, raised its 2009 guidance in January, after better-than-expected holiday sales. The retailer also boosted its dividend and resumed buying back shares.

***************************************************************

Well, it seems the uber-wealthy are doing just fine.....