STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 25

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday March 25, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 24, 2010

Dow... 10,836.15 -52.68 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq... 2,398.76 -16.48 (-0.68%)
S&P 500... 1,167.72 -6.45 (-0.55%)
Gold future... 1,089 -15.20 (-1.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.85 +0.17 (+4.67%)
30-Year Bond 4.73 +0.13 (+2.82%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Continuing Claims 03/13
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4562K
Prior 4579K

08:30 Initial Claims 03/20
Briefing.com 460K
Consensus 450K
Prior 457K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

21. Initial Claims @ 442,000 (annually revised)

8:31a Weekly jobless claims drop 14,000 to 442,000

8:31a 4-week average of claims falls 11,000 to 453,750

8:31a Jobless claims reflect annual revision to data

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-14000-in-latest-week-2010-03-25

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to a seasonally adjusted 442,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted claims would drop to 450,000, but the latest figures reflect annual revisions to the data that put claims 10,000 lower than they would have been under the old methodology, a Labor official said. The four-week average -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number - declined by 11,000 to 453,750. In the week of March 6, about 5.7 million jobless workers were receiving extended federal benefits, down 345,000 from the week before.

[tclambert]

27. Continuing claims 4,648K

I've lost track whether that's up, down, or insignificant. Well, it is clearly not insignificant to the MILLIONS of unemployed.

If I were President, we'd be building pyramids by now. By my calculations, 30 pyramids would give us FULL employment.

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers below $81 after US crude stocks rise

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $81 a barrel Thursday in Asia after an increase in U.S. crude inventories suggested consumer demand remains weak. ....

The Energy Department reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels to 351.3 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.67 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Oil demand in Europe is worse off than the U.S., with France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. all seeing drops of more than 10 percent in January from a year earlier. ....

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil fell 0.16 cent to $2.069 a gallon, and gasoline was steady at $2.22 a gallon. Natural gas dropped 1.3 cents to $4.092 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. New homes sales fall, durable orders up in February

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Sales of newly built homes fell for a fourth straight month to a record low in February, but another rise in new orders for durable goods offered assurance the economic recovery was on course. ....

Single-family home sales fell 2.2 percent to a 308,000 unit annual rate, the Commerce Department said, surprising markets that had expected a 320,000 unit pace.

In a second report, the department said new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods increased 0.5 percent in February, rising for the third straight month, and January's figures were revised higher to show a 3.9 percent gain.

Markets had expected orders to climb 0.7 percent in February from the previously reported 2.6 percent rise.

The housing data came on the heels of report on Tuesday showing existing home sales fell for a third straight month in February while the supply of houses on the market jumped.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100325/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[ozymandius]

8. Home Sales: Distressing Gap (Calculated Risk analysis w/chart)

The following graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through February. I jokingly refer to this as the "distressing gap".

The initial gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The spike in existing home sales last year was due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit.

Notice that there was also a bump last year in new home sales from the tax credit. ....

The same thing will happen over the next few months. Any bump in new home sales from the tax credit will happen in March and April - when the contract is signed. Any bump in existing home sales will probably happen in May and June when escrow closes.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/03/home-sales-distressing-gap.html

[ozymandius]

4. Fed exit fraught with dangers, monetary experts say

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve has not been clear enough about how it intends to unwind its unprecedented monetary easing campaign, and some of the tools it expects to use may not work, monetary experts will tell Congress on Thursday.

John Taylor, a Stanford University economist and author of a key central banking rule of thumb, will testify before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee that the Fed's unorthodox approach has not only threatened its independence but also made policy making more difficult. ....

For one thing, the reverse repurchase agreements through which the Fed plans to drain funds from the system would make its policy success too dependent on the whims of the private sector, Goodfriend said in his prepared testimony.

"Large-scale reverses would expose Fed to substantial counterparty risk," said Goodfriend, who is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end. "This would complicate the Fed's management of financial markets, especially in times of turmoil."

He added that the Fed's authority to pay interest on bank reserves, granted by Congress after the crisis started, will not prevent borrowing costs from drifting undesirably lower during a tightening unless some technical problems relating to mortgage finance agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are overcome.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100324/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_exitstrategy

[ozymandius]

5. Bank of America to Reduce Mortgage Balances

Bank of America said on Wednesday that it would begin forgiving some mortgage debt in an effort to keep distressed borrowers from losing their homes.

The program, while limited in scope and available by invitation only, signals a significant shift in efforts to deal with the millions of homeowners who are facing foreclosure. It comes as banks are being urged by the White House, members of Congress and community groups to do more to stem the tide. ....

Bank of America’s program may increase the pressure on other big banks to offer more help for delinquent borrowers, while potentially angering homeowners who have kept up their payments and are not getting such aid.

As the housing market shows signs of possibly entering another downturn, worries about foreclosure are growing. With the volume of sales falling, prices are sliding again. When the gap increases between the size of a mortgage and the value that the home could fetch in a sale, owners tend to give up. ....

Banks are willing to take some losses now to avoid much greater losses later if the housing market continues to spiral, and that’s a sea change from where they were a year ago,” said Howard Glaser, a housing consultant in Washington and former government regulator.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/25/business/25housing.html

[Roland99]

10. Wow, gee, only what we've been saying for a few years and.....

something they and their TBTF brethren fought against in any legislation before Congress.


morans.

[ozymandius]

13. Odd, no?

I honestly expected them to shoot themselves in the foot, leg and torso by demanding that property values should remain as high as the go-go bubble days. Just another errant thought: Perhaps these institutions have come to understand that the bubble will not be re-inflated.

[Roland99]

16. Wonder if they read this and said, "Uh oh...game's over boys"

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/24/business/24leonhardt.html?hp

For all the political and economic uncertainties about health reform, at least one thing seems clear: The bill that President Obama signed on Tuesday is the federal government’s biggest attack on economic inequality since inequality began rising more than three decades ago.

Over most of that period, government policy and market forces have been moving in the same direction, both increasing inequality. The pretax incomes of the wealthy have soared since the late 1970s, while their tax rates have fallen more than rates for the middle class and poor.

Nearly every major aspect of the health bill pushes in the other direction. This fact helps explain why Mr. Obama was willing to spend so much political capital on the issue, even though it did not appear to be his top priority as a presidential candidate. Beyond the health reform’s effect on the medical system, it is the centerpiece of his deliberate effort to end what historians have called the age of Reagan.

[ozymandius]

18. The Age of Reagan

We saw that wretched age begin to end when Obama disclosed his first budget that did not hide proposed expenses. The shocking realization that so much money was being shoveled toward so many projects was the equivalent to picking the Washington establishment up by its lapels.

[tclambert]

26. That's so close to the "Age of Reason" . . . yet so far away.

[AnneD]

25. Hubby and I are still waiting .....

for housing prices to drop here in Houston. They are still priced too close to the bubble high. Unemployment has gone up, business rents are still high and business are closing (btw-Hubby's niche market is doing well although we have comped lessons for a couple of single moms one who lost her job and ended up in the hospital). The glut of apartment buildings have suppressed rent. Until the prices drop dramatically-folks like us will be holding on to our money and pay the cheaper rent.

They really must think we are suckers. If we didn't fall for it the first time, we sure as hell won't fall for it the second time. Hubby is starting to go to auctions and we hope to pick up a good deal. We like where we are and are in no hurry to move. We intend to find a deal that we can pay cash for!

[Demeter]

30. Good Luck!

and good plan.

[AnneD]

32. The way I figure it......

the only way to live out retirement in peace is to have a paid for house. We both have defined benefit pensions with health care and have money set aside (still working on that). We can live on less than we receive in pension benefits and have chosen part time jobs that we can do long into retirement for extra money. We just need to get the house.

[Demeter]

33. And Single Payer Health Care

that would make it possible to live on Social security alone.

[No Elephants]

38. Owning where you live is good, but real estate taxes can smack you upside

the head. Boston taxes have been high historically because not for profits, such as schools and universities, hospitals and places or worship, own so danged much of the real estate.

In 2003 or 2004, however, my real estate taxes more than tripled in a single increase and then continued to increase--though nowhere near as dramatically--every year until this January, when we got a VERY modest decrease. Since real estate prices are not going down here any longer, I don't expect to see another decrease.

Be it food prices or real estate taxes, the increases happen in the so-called good times, but not so much the decreases in bad times.

I say this, not to bum you out, but just to make sure that you take all possiblities into account when planning.

[AnneD]

40. Texas is blessed to have...

a homestead exemption law to protect elderly from just such a thing. Until the 80's homes were laws that prevented folks from drawing equity out of their homes but the banking industry spent a shit load of money to get a bill through that allowed it and several years later we had housing go bust and the S&L crisis followed. You can still declare your house homestead and the tax liability gets lowered.

Thanks for the warning, but as you can see-I have done research.

[ozymandius]

6. TREASURIES-10-yr swap spread stays negative in Asia

• The 10-year interest rate swap rate USDAM3L10Y= remained below the 10-year note yield after dropping below it earlier this week. The 10-year swap rate was 9.25 basis points SMKR99 USD10YTS=RR below the 10-year Treasury yield, which stood at 3.831 percent US10YT=RR.

• One analyst said the swap spread move was likely due to position unwinding by players who had been long Treasuries and had paid interest rate swaps. When they unwound those positions, Treasury yields rose and swap yields fell.

• Sharp tightening of swap spreads into negative territory has been compounded by a lack of paying of fixed rates from the mortgage market. Typically a rise in long-term yields would spur hedging from mortgage players anticipating a lengthening of portfolio duration. But with the mortgage market still in a moribund state, that paying flow no longer exists as it used to.

• The move was also exacerbated by dealers selling Treasuries to lock in yields on upcoming corporate bond issues, one trader at a European bank said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE62O01Y20100325

[ozymandius]

7. SEC Enforcer Probes ‘Egregious Conduct’ as Muni Scrutiny Widens

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Elaine Greenberg, whose crackdown on regulatory abuses in the $2.8 trillion U.S. municipal bond market is the most ambitious since the 1990s, knows a public- debt scandal when she sees one.

In more than 20 years at the Securities and Exchange Commission, Greenberg, 49, sued officials of Pennsylvania’s biggest non-profit hospital system for fraud and stripped the securities license from an underwriter who sold risky debt to school districts.

Now she’ll direct the SEC’s attention to states and cities as part of a focus on the tax-exempt market by Chairman Mary Schapiro, 54. In her sights are possible bid-rigging for municipal-investment contracts by banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., public officials who hire advisers based on political contributions and local governments that fail to disclose their true financial condition. ....

The new scrutiny also follows the collapse of the $330 billion auction-rate securities market that left governments and investors with debt they couldn’t trade, a sewer-bond default and bribery scandal in Alabama’s biggest county exposing corruption in derivatives sales to municipalities, and probes into public-pension investment practices in New York, California and New Mexico.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoAXtf..biHI&pos=7

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 03/23/2010 12,670,895,780,689.20 (UP 7,523,343,854.10) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,175,891,420,076.37 + 4,495,004,360,612.83
UP 796,033,080.11 + UP 6,727,310,773.99

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,057,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,998.51.
A family of three owes $122,995.54. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 12,453,385,753.68.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,717,370,027.57.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,340,039,315.26.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 118 reports in 174 days of FY2010 averaging 6.45B$ per report, 4.37B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,034 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 22.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/23/2010 12,670,895,780,689.20 BHO (UP 2,044,018,731,776.12 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,761,066,777,177.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,596,490,653,274.64 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********

150,912,928,581.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4317781&mesg_id=4317792

[ozymandius]

15. I changed some formatting tags.

I swapped some <div align=center> for the simpler <center> tags. Does that help your screen image? The same? Worse?

[Festivito]

39. Same. Problem might be further up.

Don't waste a bunch of time on this. For one, I get ads which increase the width at the top.

When you moved some of the text from the very top section, the new top section starts with a blockquote that combined with the ad might be the section that sets the display width larger that would then put all five dollar reports on one line because there is already room for all five.

I'll try to play with this later. Tuesday was the time the dollar reports last dropped to separate lines. The blockquote then was narrower.

The joys of HTML.

--Fes

[Festivito]

37. Debt: 03/24/2010 12,662,466,657,519.82 (DOWN 8,429,123,169.38) (Wed)

(Up a little. Lost my ability to DU at work. Sad. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,176,387,175,629.41 + 4,486,079,481,890.41
UP 495,755,553.04 + DOWN 8,924,878,722.42

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,066,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,970.1.
A family of three owes $122,910.29. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 12,413,594,792.85.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,689,516,354.99.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,310,196,094.64.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 119 reports in 175 days of FY2010 averaging 6.32B$ per report, 4.30B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,033 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.1 and 22.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/24/2010 12,662,466,657,519.82 BHO (UP 2,035,589,608,606.74 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,752,637,654,008.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,569,787,106,931.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon
03/09/2010 +000,542,827,835.74 ------------********
03/10/2010 +000,295,703,179.30 ------------********
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********

149,730,581,194.10 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4319378&mesg_id=4319405

[Roland99]

11. Good morning, ozy, and my fellow SMWers!

Hope everyone has a great day.

80 degrees and sunny here in central FLA. FINALLY.

[ozymandius]

14. Good morning Roland.

And everyone. :donut: :donut: :donut:

It is almost time for me to depart. So I wish everyone a very fine day.

:hi:

[tclambert]

23. Hating you a little bit right now, R

In the 40s and rainy here. It will dip below freezing tonight. Still, we had a warm snap that melted all the ice and snow. The ice has disappeared off the lakes now. Hard to believe, but just a month ago, someone drove a pickup truck out on the local lake.

[Roland99]

24. I'll be thinking of you as I don the shades and sunscreen for my lunchtime walk.

:)

[ozymandius]

12. Top Fed Official Says Megabanks Need To Shrink Or Crises Will Keep Occurring

The U.S. financial system is tilted in favor of the biggest banks, compromising the "very foundation of the economic system" and putting the nation at risk of continued crises, a top Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.

Thomas M. Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the current longest-serving regional Fed chief, has been an outspoken advocate on behalf of community and regional banks. Megabanks, he's long argued, benefit from the kinds of implicit and explicit government guarantees that hurt their smaller competitors, distorting the market and crippling Main Street.

"If we stray from our core principles of fairness or ignore the rule of law, we distort the playing field and inevitably cultivate a crisis," Hoenig said during a speech at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce summit in Washington. "When the markets are no longer competitive, firms become a monopoly or an oligopoly and it matters more who you know than what you know. Then, the economy loses its ability to innovate and succeed. When the market perceives an unfair advantage of some over others, the very foundation of the economic system is compromised. ....

The seeds of this problem were sown during successful attempts to deregulate the financial system, explained Hoenig.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/24/top-fed-official-says-meg_n_511579.html

---

Hoenig, along with former St. Louis Fed President William Poole, has been one of the more reasonable voices in the Federal Reserve system's ivory tower. Reasonable, I mean, in the sense that dire consequences deserve to fall on the largest institutions that are responsible for driving our economic engine into the ground.

[Demeter]

17. Shrink, or Just Kick the Gambling Habit?

a plague on all their banking houses

[tclambert]

22. They can't kick the habit.

Somebody (I forget who) wrote that unregulated capitalism ALWAYS tends towards self-destruction because risk taking pays off and bigger risk taking pays off bigger . . . for awhile. Success encourages more risky behavior and a belief that failure is a thing of the past, until they get gobsmacked good and proper.

Ah, found it! Thank you, Wikipedia. I was thinking of Hyman Minsky's theory of "inevitable instability" or more properly, the "Financial Instability Hypothesis." From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky#Financial_theory :

"A fundamental characteristic of our economy," Minsky wrote in 1974, "is that the financial system swings between robustness and fragility and these swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles."

Disagreeing with many mainstream economists of the day, he argued that these swings, and the booms and busts that can accompany them, are inevitable in a so-called free market economy – unless government steps in to control them, through regulation, central bank action and other tools. Such mechanisms did in fact come into existence in response to crises such as the Panic of 1907 and the Great Depression. Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s.

And according to Paul McCulley, who coined the terms "Minsky moment" and "shadow banking system," Earth humans are more inclined to momentum investing than value investing. They follow fads in investing and inevitably inflate bubbles.

Unfortunately, "Minsky's theories have enjoyed some popularity, but have had little influence in mainstream economics or in central bank policy."

[DemReadingDU]

28. ZeroHedge: The Minsky Moment Approaches

This was something I read, in January. Guess that Minsky moment is still approaching.


1/11/10 ZeroHedge: The Minsky Moment Approaches

At its core, the Minsky view was straightforward: When times are good, investors take on risk; the longer times stay good, the more risk they take on, until they've taken on too much. Eventually, they reach a point where the cash generated by their assets no longer is sufficient to pay off the mountains of debt they took on to acquire them. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. "This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values," Mr. Minsky wrote.

When investors are forced to sell even their less-speculative positions to make good on their loans, markets spiral lower and create a severe demand for cash. At that point, the Minsky moment has arrived.

"We are in the midst of a Minsky moment, bordering on a Minsky meltdown," says Paul McCulley, an economist and fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world's largest bond-fund manager, in an email exchange.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/minsky-moment-approaches

edit for another link within ZeroHedge

8/18/07 Mr. Minsky Long Argued Markets Were Crisis Prone; His 'Moment' Has Arrived
http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB118736585456901047.html

[tclambert]

31. Thanks. Good articles.

I've gotta get copies of Minsky's books. Not to read. To smack "free marketeers" on the head with.

[UpInArms]

19. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last 81.671 -0.167 (-0.21%)

Dollar Forces an Essential Breakout but Where is the Drive?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-03-25-0237-Dollar_Forces_an_Essential_Breakout.html

After a month and a half of drifting, the US dollar has finally made a defining bullish break. However, whereas the long period of congestion would develop against notable fundamental winds (steps from China to cool its markets, a deterioration of EU stability and the first tangible traces of dollar-based interest speculation), the return to 2010’s dominant trend seemed to lack drive. Certainly, conditions have improved for the greenback over time. The relative growth and yield forecasts for the United States and its benchmark currency have developed a notable investment appeal to compliment the unit’s safe haven status. However, why would the market make its move now without a tangible catalyst to set things in motion?



The Economy and the Credit Market

After a month and a half of drifting, the US dollar has finally made a defining bullish break. However, whereas the long period of congestion would develop against notable fundamental winds (steps from China to cool its markets, a deterioration of EU stability and the first tangible traces of dollar-based interest speculation), the return to 2010’s dominant trend seemed to lack drive. Certainly, conditions have improved for the greenback over time. The relative growth and yield forecasts for the United States and its benchmark currency have developed a notable investment appeal to compliment the unit’s safe haven status. However, why would the market make its move now without a tangible catalyst to set things in motion? Looking at the headline event risk for the day, the dollar’s push can be attributed to ongoing troubles in the debate on how best to prevent a Greek default along with Portugal’s downgrade (EURUSD is the most liquid pair in the world and therefore sets the dollar as the most readily available alternative); but a true flight-to-safety would likely have led to a meaningful unwinding of risky positioning. Yet, equities were relatively stable and other growth-sensitive assets would avoid the telltale shifting of capital. The dollar can theoretically carry itself should buying pressure build momentum; but a genuine trend would eventually require a critical support in the form of one of the major fundamental themes: risk trends or interest rate potential.



...more...

Opening Comment 03.25

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2010-03-25-0455-Opening_Comment_03_25.html

Markets have been relatively quiet in Asian trade thus far, with price action deferring to some consolidation following Wednesday’s across the board USD gains.

The USD rally has certainly made an impact on some of the other markets, with global equities and commodity prices selling off on what appears to be a flight to safety move. A high degree of uncertainty in the global economy and specifically in the Eurozone has been attributed to the latest elevation in risk aversion, and the downgrade of Portugal in the previous day has certainly not helped matters.

The topic of the Yuan and pressures for the Chinese to revalue its currency remains a hot one, with Chinese Vice commerce minister Zhong echoing some recent local sentiment that the country will not be pressured into forcing a reminbi appreciation and that the Yuan is not was is driving the US trade deficit. Treasury Secretary Geithner however has said that it is quite likely that China will indeed move on the Yuan over time.

One currency that has received some positive attention overnight has been the Australian Dollar, which has found some fresh bids following some hawkish and currency supportive comments from RBA’s Lowe, and a stamp of approval from the RBA financial stability review. Assistant governor Lowe has said that he sees rates higher despite any uncertainty in the global economy and feels that the Australian Dollar should trade above its average from the past decade over the next few years. Some of Lowe comments have however been mitigated after saying in a Q&A session that rates are 50bps below where they should be, to suggest that only two more hikes are planned. Meanwhile, he RBA financial stability review has given the thumbs up to its financial system, saying that the local economy has been resilient and that funding conditions have improved.

Also out with some hawkish comments has been Fed Kohn who says that the Fed could and would tighten policy well in advance of any threat to price stability. One more central banker on the wires Thursday, with BOJ Kamezaki talking on the dovish side after saying that more QE could be in the mix with falling rates possibly not enough to boost economic activity.

Looking ahead, German GfK consumer confidence (3.1 expected) is due at 7:00GMT, followed by Eurozone M3 (-0.1% expected) at 9:00GMT. Attention then turns to the UK, with retail sales (0.0% expected) capping things off for the European session at 9:30GMT. US equity futures and commodity prices have been consolidating the latest round of setbacks and are yet to show any fresh direction thus far.

...more...

[tclambert]

20. As a small-time investor, I find that cartoon disturbing.

That fat cat wants to eat ME?

It makes sense, though. This past crisis probably hit workers hardest. This high unemployment rate is a curse that keeps giving. But investors lost a lot of equity, and many retired people living off their investments had to unretire. Meanwhile, the new class of fat cats get the multi-megabonuses. They are no longer the owners or majority stockholders like the J. P. Morgans or John D. Rockefellers of old. They are the MBAs in the corner offices who thrive whether their company makes money or loses billions. That part bothers me. (Well, all of it bothers me.) Performance bonuses and incentive bonuses have transformed into an entitlement for the executive class.

My new goal is to become tough and gristly and eat lots of oranges. (Cats don't like the smell of oranges. Weird, no? They love the smell of tuna, but hate citrus.)

[TalkingDog]

29. Don't know if you saw this yesterday. My dial-up is on the fritz...

Yes....dial up

During the financial meltdown SEC employees:

http://gawker.com/5500023/
Some marginally NSFW items including an enlarged photocopy of link text

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/02/sec-workers-investigated-for-viewing-porn-at-work/?page=2

In the case of the regional supervisor, the inspector general found that during a 17-day period, he received about 1,880 "access denials," wherein the computer system blocked his attempts to view Web sites that were deemed pornographic.


Your tax dollars at work.

[Demeter]

34. Any Nominations for The Weekend Theme?

I'm feeling a bit wiped out this week. Spring is playing coy--supposed to go down in the teens, as if 38F and rainy and windy wasn't bad enough...

I guess something warm and tropical would be good. Or chicken soup. Or a big down quilt over clean sheets. Any kind of comfort would be a good suggestion.

Ideas?

[ozymandius]

35. Elvis?

He did tropical. But the music is where the real treasure rests.

[Demeter]

36. Oh, dear

It took decades for me to accept the Beatles. I have never reconciled with Elvis.
Wrong generation.

[UpInArms]

41. hmmmm....

how 'bout - going for the dogs?







:D

[Demeter]

42. I LIKE It!