STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday April 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday April 8, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 7, 2010

Dow... 10,897.52 -72.47 (-0.66%)
Nasdaq... 2,431.16 -5.65 (-0.23%)
S&P 500... 1,182.45 -6.99 (-0.59%)
Gold future... 1,147 -5.60 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.85 -0.10 (-2.46%)
30-Year Bond 4.74 -0.09 (-1.93%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 04/03
Briefing.com 440K
Consensus 435K
Prior 439K

08:30 Continuing Claims 03/27
Briefing.com 4650K
Consensus 4630K
Prior 4662K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

24. Initial Claims @ 460,000 - last wk rev'd up 3k

Total US jobless benefits down 373K to 11.1M 8:30 a.m. Today

US 4-week avg. ongoing claims down 36,000 to 4.65M 8:30 a.m. Today

US continuing jobless claims fall 131K to 4.55M 8:30 a.m. Today

US 4-week avg. claims up 2,250 to 450,250 8:30 a.m. Today

US initial jobless claims up 18,000 to 460,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[Hugin]

26. Revised up you say?

I am vindicated in my stance that this is a ">" shaped recovery.

[Dr.Phool]

43. Benefits down because they didn't get the extension?

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers below $86 as 2-month rally stalls

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered below $86 a barrel Thursday in Asia after the U.S. reported rising crude inventory levels, suggesting demand remains muted. ....

Crude shot to an 18-month high above $87 this week from $69 in early February on investor optimism oil demand would increase following a recovering global economy. But U.S. consumption of for oil products has remained weak.

Crude supplies rose for the week ended Friday by a larger-than-expected 2 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has averaged 9 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.7 percent from a year ago. ....

In other Nymex trading in May contracts, heating oil was steady at $2.2438 a gallon, and gasoline fell 0.36 cent to $2.3111 a gallon. Natural gas slid 1.1 cents to $4.008 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

47. I found some more oil price charts.

[CatholicEdHead]

54. Gas pushing $2.90 here

It should be well over $3.00 by Memorial Day at this rate. The speculators are doing a good job killing off any green sprouts of economic recovery right now.

[ozymandius]

3. US faces 'difficult' tax choices: Bernanke

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Facing unsustainable budget deficits, the United States will have to make difficult choices between higher taxes and social spending, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said.

Wading into a fiercely contested political debate, Bernanke said trimming the deficit was made more urgent by the rapidly aging US population. ...

Bernanke said quick steps to balance the books would hurt the fragile recovery, but that a credible longer-term plan could spark economic growth today. ....

Obama has vowed to reduce the deficit, beginning the following year, and has lauded his landmark health care law as a major step forward.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the legislation could cut 130 billion dollars from the bloated US deficit through 2019 and 1.2 trillion in the second 10 years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100408/ts_alt_afp/useconomybankdeficit

[ozymandius]

7. Fed officials warn on bubbles but Bernanke cautious

SANTA FE, New Mexico (Reuters) - Two top U.S. Federal Reserve officials warned about the risks to the economy from asset bubbles on Wednesday, and one suggested raising interest rates to halt risky behavior that could trigger another bust.

Still, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a relatively downbeat view of the economy during a speech in Dallas, suggesting he was in no rush to tighten monetary policy.

Thomas Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, reiterated his concern that the Fed's ultra-low interest rate policies could have unintended consequences. ....

However, the New York Fed's Dudley was reluctant to endorse using monetary policy to keep inflating asset price bubbles in check on Wednesday.

Instead, he urged instead relying more heavily on regulation and verbal warnings -- "leaning against the wind of conventional wisdom by speaking out against the dangers associated with the incipient bubble."

Dudley differed from Kansas City's Hoenig, saying interest rates, currently at a record low near zero, need to remain "exceptionally low" to support a still fragile economy and create more jobs.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/07/AR2010040703926.html

[Demeter]

33. "Jack Benny" Bernanke

"Your money or your life!" says the burgler.

"I'm thinking...." says Bernanke.

My god, would it hurt the obscenely rich to pay taxes? I mean, really? Just enough so they can't buy elections for their favorite puppets. Bet the Koch brothers could redeem a large part of the national debt.

[Demeter]

34. PS: Jack Benny Is Our Theme This Weekend--Violin and All!

I could use a laugh.

[Dr.Phool]

44. What!??? No Tiger Woods?

[Demeter]

51. Tiger May Be a Joke, but He's Not Funny

[AnneD]

50. I adore Jack Benny....

and have copies of his old shows. That joke-your money or your life at one time held the record for the longest laugh recorded. Ah, Jack Benny, Ms.Livingston (his actual wife), Rochester (who got more mail than Mr. Benny) and Maxwell. The only older comedian I liked more was George Gobel. You don't hear much about him but his humour was gentle self deprecating and he was an unassuming soul.

Good choice :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[ozymandius]

58. George Gobel is an all-time favorite of mine.

"Do you ever feel like the world is a tuxedo and you're a brown pair of shoes?" - on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson

[DemReadingDU]

61. I liked Red Skelton too

always seemed to be very quick-witted, ready to tell a joke.

Years and years ago, spouse stopped in a Bob Evans in our area. The place was laughing a storm. Red Skelton decided to eat lunch there, and was walking around, stopping at every table, to meet the customers and chuckle with them all.

[Demeter]

62. Lucky Spouse!

Why don't I ever get to meet a hero of mine? Probably sit there tongue-tied.

[tclambert]

57. Oh, Rochester!

I love Jack Benny. But some of his best punch lines were long pauses.

Stick-up man points a gun at Benny, says, "Your money or your life!"

Lo-o-o-o-ng pause.

Stick-up man says, "I said, 'Your money or your life!'"

Benny replies, "I'm thinking! I'm thinking!"

[JDPriestly]

48. Social Security and Medicare are debts. It is just as important to pay

those debts as it is to pay any other debt. The Fed protected the investors in banks like Citibank and B of A, certainly the government should protect those of us who are now on the receiving end of Social Security after having paid into the system out of our paychecks over our working lives.

[Demeter]

52. What are you, some kind of Socialist?

Yes, of course, but that doesn't mean anything in economic elite-land.

[JDPriestly]

56. We all buy insurance of various kinds.

The only differences between Social Security and other insurance are that you pay into it over your working life and it is managed by the government. It's otherwise like a retirement annuity that you pay into during your working years until you start receiving payments from it when you retire.

[Demeter]

60. It Was Meant Sarcastically

and I doubt if you could get 5 Congress critters to see it your way, anymore. What a bunch of greedy, deceitful ignoramuses they be!

[ozymandius]

4. Ex-Fed chief Greenspan defends role in crisis

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan denied his policies encouraged the type of risky lending that spurred the financial crisis, in testimony to a federal investigative panel Wednesday.

The long-time Fed chair -- whose reputation as a financial mastermind has been deeply undermined by the crisis -- denied low interest rates and loose regulation had encouraged lenders and borrowers to take ever greater risks.

"The house-price bubble, the most prominent global bubble in generations, was engendered by lower interest rates, but... it was long-term mortgage rates that galvanized prices, not the overnight rates of central banks," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100407/pl_afp/useconomyfinancegovernmentbankgreenspan

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He makes me want to vomit. The Fed buys T-notes that are the de-facto arbiter of mortgage rates. Any mechanism that pours money into the banking system boosts liquidity in the overall economy. Jeebus! How one so thick and disingenuous get a free pass from so many for so long?

[ozymandius]

11. Greenspan’s Delusions Get Much Worse With Age

Commentary by Caroline Baum

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- In case you missed the first legacy tour, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is back for Part II.

Starting with an academic paper presented at the Brookings Institution on March 19 and followed by several TV interviews, “Dr. Greenspan,” as his interviewers politely refer to him, has acquired the clairvoyance he lacked at the Fed. ....

Greenspan, who was never an academic economist, chose an academic forum last month to present his most detailed defense of his stewardship of monetary policy. The paper is filled with R-squareds and t-statistics and interspersed with quotes that make him look prescient (“irrational exuberance”) and praise that can’t be retracted (from the late Milton Friedman in 2006).

It’s sad that Greenspan can’t let go because he’s making things worse for himself. His analysis of why monetary policy could not possibly be to blame for the housing bubble is seriously flawed. It was low long-term rates, depressed by capital inflows, that were responsible for the bubble in residential real estate, he claims. ....

Surely one of the hundreds of economists on the Fed staff could have explained to him that the long rate is the sum of the current and expected future short-term rates. If long-term rates are too low, jack up short-term rates more aggressively rather than in quarter-point increments. He can’t plead not-guilty. ....

He gave political support to the Bush tax cut in 2001 because -- get this -- unless the government reduced taxes, there would be no more Treasuries for the Fed to buy to conduct monetary policy! He refused to raise margin requirements in the late 1990s to defuse the technology stock bubble, arguing publicly it would have no effect. (Privately, he acknowledged it would curtail the bubble but might nail the economy in the process.) He advocated a “risk-management” approach to monetary policy and failed to exercise even a modicum of risk- management during two asset bubbles on his watch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ajtIzfWo07I0#

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This was published the morning before Greenspan testified before the Financial Inquiry Crisis Commission.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. How could he not notice that interest rates track the Fed rate?

It would appear that constructing the gibberish statements he made before CONgress used all his powers or concentration.

As maestro he was conducting the greatest fraud in history. Now he can just be written of as a senile old fool. :grr:

[ozymandius]

19. Thank goodness much of his testimony has been digitized and resides in the public domain.

Those artifacts will never go away. Think of it as his career in porn. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

25. The Born Ultimatum

These quotes are excerpted from the opening remarks at yesterday's confrontation with Alan Greenspan. Brooksley Born took great care in sharpening her knives.

Brooksley Born: In your recent book you describe yourself as an outlier in your libertarian opposition to most regulation. Your ideology has essentially been that financial markets, like the OTC derivatives market, are self regulatory and that government regulation is either unnecessary or harmful. You’ve also stated that, as a result of the financial crisis, you have now found a flaw in that ideology.

You served as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board for more than 18 years, retiring in 2006, and became, during that period, the most respected sage on financial markets in the world. I wonder if your belief in deregulation had any impact on the level of regulation over the financial markets in the United States and in the world. You said that the mandates of the Federal Reserve were monetary policy, supervision and regulation of banks and bank holding companies, and systemic risk. You appropriately argued that the role of regulation is preventative.

But, the Fed utterly failed to prevent the financial crisis.

The Fed and the banking regulators failed to prevent the housing bubble. They failed to prevent the predatory lending scandal. They failed to prevent our biggest banks and bank holding companies from engaging in activities that would bring them to the verge of collapse, without massive taxpayer bailouts. They failed to recognize the systemic risk posed by an unregulated over-the-counter derivatives market and they permitted the financial system and the economy to reach the brink of disaster. .....

Recall that Born was the former head of the CFTC whose quest to regulate over-the-counter derivatives in the late-1990s was thwarted by Alan Greenspan, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and current White House economic adviser Larry Summers.

More select quotes and commentary are available at Tim Iacono's site.

[Ghost Dog]

29. Blame Europe, former Federal Reserve boss tells US inquiry into financial crisis

Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan blamed much of the credit crunch and resulting financial crisis today on rampant demand from Europe for exotic financial derivatives based on the sale of US sub-prime mortgages.

Greenspan, who ran the US central bank for almost 20 years until 2006, said demand from Europeans for property investments that paid high rates of interest encouraged them to buy mortgage-backed securities that were tagged by credit-rating agencies as low risk.

Without the huge demand for exotic derivatives and the "dubious" participation of credit-rating agencies, along with investment banks, hundreds of small-time fraudulent mortgage lenders and a government bent on encouraging wider home ownership across the US, the crisis could have been avoided.

In testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, Greenspan said securitised sub-prime mortgages were the cause of the crisis, based on huge demand from US and European investors, and ratings agencies that applied AAA ratings to packages of sub-prime mortgages that were more likely BBB.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/07/blame-europe-alan-greenspan-tells-congress

:mad:

[FarCenter]

41. Actually, blame the free trade policy

The root of the problem is that the US was running a $500 billion or so annual trade deficit.

Foreigners had to do something with the dollars. So they flooded back into the US mortgage market.

Unfortunately, the wizards down in Washington have not yet started to address the foreign trade defict. It is still running hundreds of billions per annum.

[Demeter]

53. I'm sure if offered an alternative--Europe would have taken it

But it's Gresham's Law again: the bad investments, fraudulently marketed, drove out the good ones.

[ozymandius]

5. Consumer borrowing falls $11.5 billion in February

WASHINGTON – Consumer borrowing fell again in February, reflecting weakness in credit cards and auto loans. Analysts said the sharp reduction showed that the weak economy is still making consumers hesitant to take on more debt.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that borrowing declined by $11.5 billion in February, surprisingly weaker than the small $500 million gain that economists had expected. The February decline was the 12th decrease in the past 13 months as consumers slash borrowing in the face of a deep economic recession and high unemployment.

Analysts said consumer borrowing is being held back by lingering fears about job security with unemployment still near 10 percent and a move by banks to tighten credit standards following the severe financial crisis of the past two years. .....

In percentage terms, the January increase represented a rise of 5.2 percent at an annual rate while the February decline marks a drop of 5.6 percent.

The February weakness reflected a sizable 13.6 percent drop in revolving loans, the category that includes credit card debt, and a smaller 1.6 percent decline in nonrevolving loans, the category that covers auto loans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100407/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

[ozymandius]

13. Balance Sheet, Savings Rate, Debt Service Ratio

The Big Picture has some good info in one consumer finances graphical package.

[fasttense]

28. No kidding?

Everyone goes around saying how we have to loosen up borrowing so consumers can get back to consuming. But.....

If you ain't got a job to pay off the loan, what's the use of borrowing.

I could borrow as much money right now as I want. The problem is, I can't pay it back without a job.

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Nail, meet hammer. Or vice versa.

Is there something wrong with us? Why does it seem so crystal clear to us, but "they" don't get it?





Tansy Gold, who should find a picture of a nice water-clear herkie. . . .

[AnneD]

55. It (the lack of consumer borrowing) is crystal clear to us because...

we have family, friends, neighbours, and co-workers that are unemployed and for whom most consumer goods are a luxury. Their spending consists of needs only.

I have concluded that all on Washington and Wall Street are in one self sustaining bubble.

They couldn't find their asses if they had a map and used both hands.

[Demeter]

35. So What's a $12 Billion Error in Their "Guesstimate"?

(par for the course)

[ozymandius]

6. Euro-Zone Retail Sales Tumble

LONDON—Retail sales in the 16 countries that use the euro fell at their fastest pace in 13 months in February, as consumers continued reining in their spending amid a slow economic recovery, the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat reported Thursday.

Sales volumes in the single-currency area fell 0.6% in February from January, the largest decline since December 2008, and were 1.1% lower compared with the comparable month a year earlier.

The data were weaker than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week estimated that February sales would be unchanged on the month and down 0.7% on the year.

In January, retail sales declined 0.2% on a month-to-month basis and 0.6% year-to-year. Those figures were revised to show a less negative performance, from the originally reported 0.3% month-to-month drop and 1.3% annual decline. .....

The slowdown in sales comes a day after fourth-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product figures were revised lower. The figures showed the economy stagnated in the final months of 2009 and also suggested the region will struggle to post a significant pickup in the first three months of 2010.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304198004575171331054780678.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights

[ozymandius]

8. Citigroup Ex-Chief Prince, Rubin Face Grilling on Loan Losses

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Charles O. “Chuck” Prince and Robert Rubin, Citigroup Inc.’s former leaders, face a grilling by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission today on why they didn’t foresee the housing collapse and its record losses.

Commission Vice Chairman Bill Thomas said in an interview yesterday he wants to hear whether Prince, ousted as chief executive officer in 2007, and Rubin, who served as interim chairman, accept any responsibility for Citigroup’s performance. The panel is holding a second day of hearings in Washington to probe the mortgage-market collapse and ensuing bank bailouts.

Given the multimillion-dollar pay packages awarded to Citigroup executives, Thomas said he wants to know why they didn’t do a better job. Bankers told the panel yesterday they relied on statistical models that failed to predict the severity of the crisis. The resulting losses crippled New York-based Citigroup and triggered a $45 billion federal bailout. ....

During yesterday’s session, the panel was told Citigroup routinely bought mortgages that violated the bank’s own standards. Richard Bowen, former chief underwriter for Citigroup’s consumer-lending group, said he determined in mid- 2006 that more than 60 percent of mortgages bought from other firms and sold to investors such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were “defective.” ....

The commission interrogated Citigroup executives who oversaw the bank’s accumulation of collateralized debt obligations, which were created by repackaging bonds that in turn were created from home loans.

The so-called super-senior holdings, the highest-rated of all CDO bonds, plunged in value as subprime-mortgage defaults surged and contributed to the bank’s record $28 billion net loss in 2008.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKiLajQ_uGUA&pos=6

[ozymandius]

9. China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble, Chanos Says (Update1)

.....
China is “on a treadmill to hell,” said Chanos, who said in January the nation is Dubai times a thousand. “They can’t afford to get off this heroin of property development. It is the only thing keeping the economic growth numbers growing.”

Property prices in China rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in February even after officials this year re-imposed a tax on homes sold within five years of their purchase to curb speculation and ordered banks to set aside more funds as reserves to cool lending. The boom in China’s real estate has fueled concern that China may face a collapse seen in Dubai that has hurt the ability of some of its companies to repay debt.

Since his January prediction, Chanos, the founder of Kynikos Associates Ltd, has been joined by Gloom, Doom & Boom publisher Marc Faber and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China’s property market.

Chinese state and local governments are among the most leveraged to property-related borrowings and the nation will “ultimately” have to nationalize a lot of the bad loans that will arise from the end of the bubble, Chanos said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=an0ehK2dtdXg&pos=11

[Festivito]

10. Debt: 04/06/2010 12,792,967,119,405.50 (UP 6,408,059,052.92) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,315,962,211,453.58 + 4,477,004,907,951.92
UP 246,106,716.91 + UP 6,161,952,336.01

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,178,398 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,377.3.
A family of three owes $124,131.9. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 10,794,051,741.43.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,275,439,668.43.
The average for the last 32 days would be 7,758,224,689.16.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 128 reports in 188 days of FY2010 averaging 6.90B$ per report, 4.70B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,020 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 20.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/06/2010 12,792,967,119,405.50 BHO (UP 2,166,090,070,492.42 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,883,138,115,893.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,714,603,256,921.48 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********

163,079,840,762.35 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4335043&mesg_id=4335097

[ozymandius]

12. I am always amazed at the work you put into this.

Thank you! :yourock:

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. You both rock!!

[Festivito]

63. Debt: 04/07/2010 12,791,874,548,454.16 (DOWN 1,092,570,951.34) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,316,888,619,597.41 + 4,474,985,928,856.75
UP 926,408,143.83 + DOWN 2,018,979,095.17

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,187,038 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,372.61.
A family of three owes $124,117.83. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 10,298,775,795.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,239,020,636.72.
The average for the last 33 days would be 7,490,018,760.65.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 129 reports in 189 days of FY2010 averaging 6.84B$ per report, 4.67B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,019 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 20.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/07/2010 12,791,874,548,454.16 BHO (UP 2,164,997,499,541.08 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,882,045,544,942.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,703,421,290,497.23 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********
04/02/2010 -000,783,098,135.53 ---
04/05/2010 +021,628,544,775.26 ------------********** Mon
04/06/2010 +000,246,106,716.91 ------------********
04/07/2010 +000,926,408,143.83 ------------********

163,687,384,026.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4336228&mesg_id=4336252

[ozymandius]

14. Banking Industry Insiders Call for Breaking Up Giant Banks

Washington's blog argues that it is not as bold as it sounds.

Virtually all independent financial experts are demanding that the too big to fail banks be broken up, including:

• Nobel prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz

• Nobel prize-winning economist, Ed Prescott

• Former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich

• Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, and Dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, R. Glenn Hubbard

• Former IMF chief economist, and MIT professor, Simon Johnson

• Deputy Treasury Secretary, Neal S. Wolin

• The Congressional panel overseeing the bailout (and see this)

• The leading monetary economist and co-author with Milton Friedman of the leading treatise on the Great Depression, Anna Schwartz

• Economics professor and senior regulator during the S & L crisis, William K. Black

• Economics professor, Nouriel Roubini

• Economist, Marc Faber

• Professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the Chicago Booth School of Business, Luigi Zingales

• Economics professor, Thomas F. Cooley

• Economist Dean Baker

This is just the intro to a very long piece. Each name with a bullet point links to their online testimonial to the cause of breaking up the big banks. Click through to Washington's Blog for accessory links and more info.

[UpInArms]

15. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

81.755 +0.312 (+0.40%)

The Longest Build in Inventories in Five Years Turns Crude to its First Lost in Seven Days

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2010-04-07-2241-The_Longest_Build_in_Inventories.html

After forging a remarkable breakout to a 17-month high and subsequently extending the longest bull trend since the December/January rally, crude was would have to eventually trade speculative momentum for fundamental drive. This switch proved unfavorable for the commodity. The first decline in seven days Thursday was partially the response to breakout exhaustion; but it would further align itself to a disappointing round of fundamental data and more importantly to the consensus on risk appetite across the financial markets.

North American Commodity Update

Commodities - Energy

The Longest Build in Inventories in Five Years Turns Crude to its First Lost in Seven Days

Crude Oil (LS NYMEX) -  $85.95  //   -$0.89  //  -1.02%

After forging a remarkable breakout to a 17-month high and subsequently extending the longest bull trend since the December/January rally, crude was would have to eventually trade speculative momentum for fundamental drive. This switch proved unfavorable for the commodity. The first decline in seven days Thursday was partially the response to breakout exhaustion; but it would further align itself to a disappointing round of fundamental data and more importantly to the consensus on risk appetite across the financial markets. Looking for guidance on investor sentiment, we can see that crude was advancing on its own momentum. Looking to other recognizable benchmark’s measures of traders’ appetites, we see that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has found itself unable to surpass 11,000, while Wednesday’s decline was the biggest in six weeks; and carry interest continually loses momentum in its two-week advance. Given this general consensus, strength in oil from a speculative perspective is diverging far from what markets would suggest is reasonable. As a measure of the inactivity of the markets and lack of concern over a possible reversal, the CBOE Crude Volatility Index is hovering just above a 27-month low at 29 percent. In addition to the negative bias contributed by risk trends, the dollar’s strength through the day would add additional weight to the commodity as the primary pricing instrument for spot and futures transactions in the Western hemisphere.

It is possible for a market to overlook a technical or speculative sense of overbought and oversold given the correct fundamental contributions. Over the past few days, strong economic data and the support to growth that the Fed’s dovish monetary policy position leaned towards offered a boost to the production/consumption equation exactly where it was needed: long-term demand. However, this positive outlook was undermined by today’s data. Most pertinent for energy traders was the greater-than-expected 1.976 million barrel increase in the Department of Energy’s crude oil inventory figures for the week ending April 2nd. This increased net holdings to 356.2 million barrels; but more importantly the growth trend is the longest since the 11 consecutive weekly increased through December 3rd, 2004. Other statistics from this data release were similarly discouraging. Crude imports rose 5.5 percent to 9.56 million barrels – the highest level since September. So, while refineries may be operating at their highest levels since October (at 84.5 percent) there is little significant price threat to come from the supply side. In macroeconomic news, the final reading of the fourth quarter Euro Zone GDP numbers were revised down. The region reportedly stagnated through the end of the year with a deeper than expected 2.2 percent drop in consumer spending. Adding to the discouragement UK service sector activity would pullback form a more than three-year high in its March reading and US consumer credit numbers dropped for the 12th time in 13 months – a sign that the world’s largest consumer base will not turn to financing to compensate for high unemployment and receding wage growth.



...more...

Dollar Advances Despite Bernanke’s Cautious Language and Drop in Consumer Credit

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2010-04-08-0141-Dollar_Advances_Despite_Bernanke_s_Cautious.html

• Dollar Advances Despite Bernanke’s Cautious Language and Drop in Consumer Credit
• Euro: Ongoing Troubles with Greece and Stagnant 4Q GDP Number Dim ECB Rate Prospects
• British Pound Traders Skeptical BoE Meeting Will Yield Meaningful Change Amid Election
• Australian Dollar Will Respond to Employment Change for Growth, Interest Rate Potential
• Canadian Dollar Moves Further Up the Rate Spectrum as Officials Support its Advance

Dollar Advances Despite Bernanke’s Cautious Language and Drop in Consumer Credit
The US dollar put in for a fourth consecutive advance against its benchmark counterpart, the euro Wednesday. Naturally, the performance of this fundamentally-anchored pair would be considered the barometer for the underlying currency’s performance; but that doesn’t necessarily mean it clues us in to the primary force behind this appreciation. In effect, the scheduled economic data and commentary for the day would hold a definitive, bearish bias. What’s more, there was a marked drop in interest rate expectations for the US dollar after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke expanded upon the dovish commentary contained within the minutes of the policy meeting held on March 15th / 16th and subsequently released yesterday. What would overcome this discouraging mix? The greenback’s other primary driver: risk appetite. Looking for other clues to investor sentiment, the Japanese yen would climb through the session, crude fell for the first time in seven days after extending its run to 17-month highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average put in for the its sharpest decline in six weeks. Looking at the equity benchmark for a second, the historical decline set for the session was a meager 0.66 percent contraction (or 72.47 points). Over years of historical price action for comparison, this is hardly a blip. Yet, in the steady and aggressive climb the market has maintained these past two months, there has otherwise been very little day to day price action. In fact, the average true range (a measure of volatility) on the Dow is just off its lowest levels since the end of 2009; and excluding this holiday period, it is just off of lows not seen since February 2007. Such consistency and stability are not naturally in speculative markets. It is during such periods of complacency that the market participants are caught off guard.

It would seem unusual that the dollar can be considered both a safe haven and a carry candidate; but we are starting to see this particular currency fulfilling both roles given the correct conditions and measured against the right counterpart. The greenback’s reserve status dictates its ‘flight-to-safety’ appeal; but it is the rebound in market rates and the outlook for policy tightening from the Federal Reserve that imbues this currency with the capital appreciation that comes with a hawkish rate regime. However, today’s commentary would further give traders pause as Fed Chairman expounded upon the cautious tone the policy board conveyed in yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes. The media headlines would focus in on the central banker’s suggestion that unemployment and home foreclosures posed a significant challenge to an economic recovery. He went on to say the bank lending was “restrained” and inflation “appears to be well controlled.” However, offering some level of hope for the hawks, Bernanke said growth will likely run at such a pace that the jobless rate will start to contract. Now, assessing the situation from the perspective of a more hawkish policy maker, the Fed’s Hoenig said that he expects job growth to continue and saw consumer spending growing at a “solid pace.” Getting to the heart of the matter, he went on to say that rates could be raised even if data was “mixed” and even a benchmark at 1.00 percent would be considered “highly accommodative.” His additional warnings that artificially low interest rates contributed to the financial crisis was likely a shot across the bow to his more dovish peers. Nonetheless the 12-month interest rate outlook for the Fed Funds rate measured through Credit Suisse overnight index swaps dropped 13 basis points to 78 basis points from yesterday.

From the otherwise quiet economic docket, it is worthwhile to recognize the sharp drop in February’s consumer credit report. The Fed reported an $11.5 billion drop in consumer financing – a discouraging sign for personal consumption when wages are contracting and unemployment just off a 26-year low. For perspective, this was the 12th decline in 13 months; though, there January’s increase was doubled to $10.6 billion.

...more...

[ozymandius]

20. Dang! I like your oil candles chart better than the one in the OP.

I think something is about to get "appropriated". I've poked around the site. Where do I find the lovely, concise chart you use here, UpInArms?

[UpInArms]

37. alas, that chart is only available with the weekly column by that

analyst - can't find a "running" chart that even simulates that data.

sigh

but I do post that weekly column on Thursdays with the dollar watch :)

Hope you are having a lovely week of rest, Ozy. I can't think of anyone more deserving of days off!

:grouphug:

[Roland99]

21. that downside trend sure has a steep upward slope.

I'm betting insurance policy premiums will soon be doing the same thing (if not already)

[DemReadingDU]

17. Dylan Ratigan discusses the Federal Reserve

He says to think of The Fed as 'The Godfather'

4/7/10 Dylan Ratigan Discusses The Great Financial Con Job With Alan Grayson And Bill Fleckenstein

Dylan Ratigan, joined by the inimitable Alan Grayson and Bill Fleckenstein, does one of the best comprehensive summations of the where we are, how we got here, and why those responsible for the upcoming US default are still doing exactly what they were doing, through the enabling of the Federal Reserve. The logical question arises: when will someone finally do something about the situation the US is in right now? At this point pretty much everyone understands how the con works (and if you don't, watch this clip). Why do we allow a handful of corrupt politicians and a select few of Fed members unaccountable to anyone, coupled with a small group of Wall Street CEO, to determine the fate of this nation, and how long will democracy be trampled by those very people who claim to represent nothing but the people's interests? Watch this clip.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/dylan-ratigan-discusses-great-financial-con-job-alan-grayson-and-bill-fleckenstein

direct link to video, appx 12 minutes
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31510813/ns/msnbc_tv-the_dylan_ratigan_show#36233217

[ozymandius]

22. Federal Reserve Gets Political, Sends Congress Veiled Message

Facing perhaps the biggest loss of power in the institution's nearly 100-year history, the Federal Reserve fought back today with a little-noticed move that seemed to send a message to Congress: we use our oversight authority over banks to help us shape the direction of the economy.

So, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, don't take it away.

In the wake of the biggest financial crisis and most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, many in Washington have blamed the Fed. Partly to punish it for past failures and partly to help it concentrate on the biggest financial and economic issues, Dodd took away the Fed's regulatory authority over banks in the November draft of his bill to reform the financial industry. Last month, he offered a new draft of his bill, this time giving the Fed authority over the nation's biggest financial firms.

But the Fed is still facing a loss of its oversight powers over nearly 5,000 bank holding companies and nearly 900 banks. ....

In minutes released Tuesday of the Federal Open Market Committee's March 16 meeting, the Fed made clear that supervision does affect monetary policy by including the following language:

Members noted the importance of continued close monitoring of financial markets and institutions -- including asset prices, levels of leverage, and underwriting standards -- to help identify significant financial imbalances at an early stage. At the time of the meeting the information collected in this process, including that by supervisory staff, had not revealed emerging misalignments in financial markets or widespread instances of excessive risktaking. All members agreed that the Committee would continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and would employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

The key passage is "...including that by supervisory staff..." The Fed here is making the case that it uses information from its supervisors, and that that information helps it shape monetary policy.

A Huffington Post review of previous minutes from FOMC meetings -- the Fed's policy-making body that sets the main interest rate -- shows that the last time the Fed mentioned that it gleaned information from its bank supervisors was during its Nov. 6, 2002, meeting. Since then, while the Fed has discussed bank issues like lending and capital levels, it's never explicitly said that it got that information from its regulators. In fact, bank capital and lending levels are public.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/06/federal-reserve-gets-poli_n_527596.html

[Tansy_Gold]

27. My problem with the clip

It glosses over the really difficult parts, which is where all the mischief really took place.

The FOAF with the econ PhD from "a prestigious U" can't seem to get it through his head that throwing out mere statistics isn't enough to convince some of us that the Recovery is Happening. So he sends an email filled with equations and formulae, says his numbers PROVE what he's saying, and therefore the rest of us are too dumb to figure it our so we should just trust him because he's right about this.

But it's like the old joke -- 372436 is data; 37-24-36 is information. Ratigan is giving data, but he's not giving information.

At first glance it looks like he is. The Fed/Greenspan is the Godfather making an offer the banks can't refuse. The banks have no risk, make more loans. Okay, fine. But then there's that murky part about getting the pension funds to invest in the loans with expectations of high returns and that led to the collape of the real estate market????

Do you see what I'm saying? It's the quantish manipulation that did it, with Greenspan's blessing and encouragement, but that's the very part that no one is explaining, or at least not in the few minutes of the clip I watched.

We have a massive bias in this country in favor of the rich. We have a massive peasant mentality, believing and trusting those who are crushing us. Ratigan APPEARS to be exposing the oppressors for what they really are, but he leaves the mystery and the mystique in place.

As far back as I can remember, math was always the big scary subject in school. If not necessarily for some individuals, it seems to be a cultural bogeyman. So as soon as someone starts throwing out any hints of higher math, our collective brains shut down. (How many of us, and be honest, skim through festivito's daily debt post and upinarms' dollar watch post just because the numbers are too mindboggling???)

If Ratigan really wanted to rouse the rabble, he should have figured out a way to present not only the method but the faces behind the manipulation, how they did it and how they benefited. DEMONIZE them, the way they have demonized us.

In another thread last night on another subject, I expressed my belief that Don Blankenship of Massey Energy is probably the most evil man in America right now. His is the face of all that is unholy with corporate greed. (I think he should be condemned to live the rest of his life as a passenger in an armored limousine, driven daily through the communities his greed has devastated.) We need to put faces to the horrors. Not just Greenspan and not just Geithner.

We got to know the faces of Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling and Andy Fastow and Dennis Kozlowski. Bill Orally and Sean Insanity and Glenn Blech are instantly recognizable. We need to make put a human face on the evil and not let up. And we need to make the evil understandable.

I think that's what Keith Olbermann does very well, but we only get an hour of him a day and his show is really more about news than about ideas. He's not "talk radio" the way Rush and the others are. Is he too intellectual for that? Then why don't we have someone who isn't quite so intellectual, who can get the word out there? Oh, I know, we tried with Air America and it didn't work so well. maybe the time wasn't right.

I don't know. I don't have all the answers. But I think Ratigan tried and I think he's on the right track, and I have a day job so I can't spend hours watching all the stuff I'd like to watch.

We haven't yet pulled the curtain back on the man/men/people pulling the levers. Too many of us are still under the spell of the wizards.



Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

39. MSNBC is for J6P audience

Clearly Ratigan didn't go deep enough, for us. But for the majority of people who have no clue about The Fed, I thought it was done well for his audience.

[ozymandius]

23. Goldman Denies It Bet Against Clients

From Naked Capitalism:

Goldman has just issued an eight page letter to shareholders, in which it tries to defend itself against its critics, particularly regarding its conduct vis-a-vis AIG, with how it got short the residential mortgage market, and its compensation.

To be more terse than usual: the AIG argument is generally plausible (and not inconsistent with what Tom Adams’ analysis has found), the other two are problematic. to put it politely.

Goldman has been charged with overly aggressive marks on its AIG related exposures, which have included allegations of nefarious intent. There have long been problems with this theory. The big one is that there was and still is a greaat deal of denial among banks as to how far mortgage-related paper needed to be marked down. Tom Adams looked at the marks that Goldman asked, based on news reports and other sources, and found their marks to be realistic. Moreover, the CDOs in question were not owned by Goldman (it has been clear for some time that at least some of the AIG-related CDOs were client position; the letter indicates they all were). That means that Goldman was a swap intermediary; it had sold CDS protection to clients, then turned around and laid that risk of on AIG.

There is one part of Goldman’s argument that is tripe, however:

Over the ensuing weeks and months, we continued to make collateral calls, which were based on market values, consistent with our agreements with AIG. While we collected collateral, there still remained gaps between what we received and what we believed we were owed. These gaps were hedged in full by the purchase of CDS and other risk mitigants from third parties, such that we had no material residual risk if AIG defaulted on its obligations to us.

Yves here. Neil Barofsky of SIGTARP has dismissed this argument. If AIG had foundered, the CDS market would have suffered cascading counterparty failures. The idea that Goldman’s insurance of AIG risk was any good is an utter canard. The fact that they are still trying to sell that discredited line does call their candor on other issues into question.

On Goldman’s betting against its clients, the firm mentions only in passing that it used CDOs to lay off mortgage risk. The reason the use of a CDO is important is that, while the offering documents contemplated all sorts of outcomes, investors would assume that Goldman was acting as an intermediary and had devised its CDO merely to satisfy market demand and lay of mortgage pipeline exposure, acting as an intermediary. But in using a CDO to create a short positio, Goldman would have the incentive to dump the very worst dreck possible into the CDO. And had Goldman disclosed its role, investors would have looked at the deal much harder.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/goldman-denies-it-bet-against-clients.html

[Tansy_Gold]

32. And Nixon was not a crook, and Clinton didn't, well, you know.

:rofl:

[Hugin]

36. Looks like they've been reading those high dollar studies which say people can't remember the truth

after a few days... Especially, when garbage is continually reinforced.

Just how the Fuhrer used to do it, eh?

[Demeter]

31. The Best Humor Is Usually in Bad Taste--Like That Cartoon

Wonder how he managed to pass college with that kind of attitude. If he's not a Teabagger, but just racist, I suppose....or maybe the Opus Dei type, are they down on Democrats?

[Roland99]

38. 9:33am - Ugly start

Dow 10,854 -44 -0.40%
Nasdaq 2,421 -10 -0.43%
S&P 500 1,177 -6 -0.50%
GlobalDow 2,023 -18 -0.86%
Gold 1,150 -3 -0.28%

[DemReadingDU]

40. Video: Eyes Wide Open

Be sure to watch the video in full screen mode. We probably are familiar with most all of the flashing pictures.

4/6/10 Eyes Wide Open
Here is an email from "Captain Sheeple" (Jeff) about a video he put together.

Hi Mish

I'm a daily reader of your blog. I'm also a long-time member of the Chris Martenson forum (JAG), and I made a video entitled "Eyes Wide Open" with the hope of attracting more people into a discussion of our current economic predicament.

I wanted to inquire if you might be interested in posting the video to your blog at some point. The video is really geared towards a younger audience than that typically found in the financial blogosphere, but any exposure can't hurt.
Thank you for everything that you do.
Jeff

click for video
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/eyes-wide-open.html

direct link to video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YThN6iqr4SM

4/4/10 Read more in the Chris Martenson forum...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/eyes-wide-open/37741

[Dr.Phool]

42. Nearly 17 percent of Tampa homeowners three months behind on mortgage

Nearly 17 percent of Tampa homeowners three months behind on mortgage

By James Thorner, Times Staff Writer
In Print: Thursday, April 8, 2010


Times Staff

Nearly 17 percent of Tampa Bay homeowners haven't paid their mortgages for at least three months.

The February report by First American CoreLogic shows mortgage delinquencies rising steadily for more than a year. From February 2009 to February 2010, delinquencies increased from 10.84 percent to 16.96 percent of all residential mortgages, making mincemeat of such government anti-foreclosure measures as Making Home Affordable. Florida's 90-day delinquency rate was even worse at 19.39 percent. The U.S. rate was 8.78 percent.

Unusually high unemployment, combined with stiff housing depreciation, has pushed more homeowners into default.

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One in every five mortgages in this state are at least 90 days late. I don't think very many of them will be able to make up the difference. Boy, I'm glad the recession is over.

That must be what our illustrious legislature, probably the most corrupt in the nation, is thinking with a bill moving through now, that WILL ALLOW BANKS TO FORECLOSE WITHOUT GOING TO COURT!!! And it will pass. No more challenges to in court. They've even foreclosed on a couple of houses here, that didn't even have mortgages!

[ozymandius]

45. That is a preposterous bill.

I do not see how that can pass muster with Federal laws - not that these crooks in your state legislature are willing to try. I wonder how that is going to play out in upcoming elections.

[Dr.Phool]

46. As long as some repuke is against abortion, and has family values,

They're guaranteed re-election.

These ignorant assholes don't realize that by "family values", they mean the Gambino Family. We're talking Fox-induced, weapons grade stupidity around here. If the insurance rates, and the utility bills haven't convinced them, neither will living in a cardboard box.

[tclambert]

59. They don't have to HAVE family values, just SAY they do.

Look at the dysfunctional Palin family. Look at all those Republican elected officials caught cheating on a spouse, or divorcing a spouse who is hospitalized.

[ozymandius]

49. lunchtime check-in with blather

12:25
Dow 10,908.55 11.03 (0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,433.52 2.36 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,183.67 1.23 (0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 3.88% 0.12
NYSE Volume 2,501,877,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,140,985,875

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to make its way higher and is now threatening to push into positive territory. The charge has been led by financials, which are now up 0.3% after they were down roughly 1% at their session low.

Energy has been a strong source of support, as well. The sector had been down in excess of 1% in the early going, but has since rallied to a 0.1% gain. Energy's reversal comes even though oil prices remain in negative territory -- contracts for crude currently price oil at $85.50 per barrel, down 0.5%. DJ30 +0.90 NASDAQ -2.99 SP500 -0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 990/1.05 bln/1528 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1136/390 mln/1759

11:30 am : Financials have made their way into higher ground. The sector is up fractionally amid strength in investment banks and brokerages, which are currently up 0.9% after a 1.8% gain in the prior session. This is actually the fourth straight session that the group has traded higher.

Telecom stocks have rebounded from an outsized loss in the previous session. The sector dropped more than 2% in trade on Wednesday, but it is now up 0.4%, which is second only to the consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%).

Treasuries have had a rather quiet morning, despite widespread weakness in the early going and lingering losses in more recent action. The benchmark 10-year Note has oscillated along the unchanged line; its yield remains near 3.86% after strong buying on the back of strong auction results in the previous session drove the yield downward. Fixed income investors get their hands on the results from an auction of 30-year Treasuries at 1:00 PM ET. DJ30 -26.38 NASDAQ -8.06 SP500 -2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 884/928 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 942/340 mln/1922