Bart Stupak to Retire

[Mr. Sparkle]

Source: CBS News

Michigan Rep. Bart Stupak, the congressman who led anti-abortion rights Democrats in the House during health care negotiations, will retire this year, CBS News has learned. He is expected to announce his plans later this morning.

Had Stupak sought re-election, he would have faced challengers from both the left and the right backed by interest groups angered by Stupak's health care vote.

Stupak negotiated with Democratic leaders down to the eleventh hour for stricter abortion language in the health care bill, but he ultimately voted for it after President Obama agreed to sign an executive order assuring the new laws will keep taxpayer dollars from funding abortions.

That prompted the conservative Tea Party Express to launch a $250,000 ad campaign against Stupak this week. The group also scheduled a handful of stops on its bus tour in Stupak's district.

On the left, the abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America has been working to defeat Stupak and instead elect his Democratic primary challenger Connie Saltonstall.

Like many other congressmen, Stupak received violent threats from citizens after his health care vote. However, the Michigan Democrat came under particularly intense scrutiny because of his role in the abortion debate.

Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002106-503544.html

[Ian David]

1. He's retiring to spend more time being a douchebag with his family. n/t

[Kber]

25. In fairness, his reputation is that of a good husband and father

(the real kind). He just tried to impose his personal religious beliefs on the rest of us, which I kind of object to.

[Ian David]

36. No, he did NOT try and impose his personal and religious beliefs on the rest of us.

He took a shitload of bribes lobbying money from the insurance industry, and godwashed it by camouflaging it as his personal and religious beliefs.

He exploited the personal and religious beliefes of the fundies to turn a buck.

Stupak knew damn well the bill didn't fund abortions, but he used it as an excuse to whip the fundies into a life-or-death frenzy against it.

And when he finally voted FOR the bill, they turned their anger and venom that he himself had cultivated back upon Stupak himself.

I forget how much he got, but Olbermann read the number on the air. Here's what I found on OpenSecrets, but not sure how recently they've updated it:



Top 20 Contributors to Campaign Cmte

1 American Cable Assn $10,000 $0 $10,000
2 American Assn for Justice $7,500 $0 $7,500
2 Home Depot $7,500 $0 $7,500
2 National Beer Wholesalers Assn $7,500 $0 $7,500
2 National Community Pharmacists Assn $7,500 $0 $7,500
6 CMS Energy $7,100 $0 $7,100
7 Deutsche Telekom $7,000 $0 $7,000
7 Honeywell International $7,000 $0 $7,000
9 DTE Energy $6,000 $0 $6,000
9 Lockheed Martin $6,000 $0 $6,000
11 American Assn of Nurse Anesthetists $5,750 $0 $5,750
11 American Hospital Assn $5,750 $500 $5,250
13 Credit Union National Assn $5,500 $0 $5,500
13 National Propane Gas Assn $5,500 $0 $5,500
13 National Rural Electric Cooperative Assn $5,500 $0 $5,500
13 Right to Life $5,500 $0 $5,500
17 ActBlue $5,000 $5,000 $0
17 American Dental Assn $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 American Health Care Assn $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 Machinists/Aerospace Workers Union $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 National Auto Dealers Assn $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 Operating Engineers Union $5,000 $0 $5,000
17 Verizon Communications $5,000 $0 $5,000

More:
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/summary.php?cid=N00004196&cycle=2010



Posted by RH Reality Check at 6:45 am
March 22, 2010
comments-
Who Is Bart Stupak?
Written by Ariana Childs Graham for RHRealityCheck.org – News, commentary and community for reproductive health and justice.

<snip>

His seat has been secure.

Stupak could never have held healthcare reform captive during an election year if he didn’t feel a certain security about his place in Congress. When he first ran for the House of Representatives in 1992, he won by 10 points. Since then, his winning margin has grown exponentially. In the 2008 election, Stupak won 68 percent of the vote.

His campaign fundraising has been somewhat minimal at just over $7 millionover the span of his entire career. His top contributors have consistently been healthcare professionals and unions. Aside from a curious piece of legislation that sought to include dental health care in disaster relief services and can be traced back to large campaign contributions from the American Dental Association, he doesn’t seem particularly beholden to his healthcare-related campaign contributors. One of his biggest contributors is Blue Cross/ Blue Shield, and yet he has spoken in support of anti-trust regulations within the insurance industry.

Stupak floated a gubernatorial bid early this year. However, in late January, he announced that he wouldn’t be running for governor, but would instead be seeking reelection in Congress. He stated, “My seniority and experience in Congress, where I sit on the Energy and Commerce Committee and serve as Chairman of the Oversight and Investigations subcommittee, afford me a significant opportunity to affect positive change.”

Democratic activist and former Charlevoix County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall will be challenging Stupak in the primary. The impetus for her run is Stupak’s involvement in healthcare reform.”I decided to run because people were…mad about the health care issue,” Saltonstall stated, “It’s his willingness to not have health care pass over his abortion position that has people like me upset.”

More:
http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/2010/03/22/who-is-bart-stupak/

[Kber]

54. OK - I'm no Stupak fan myself and I concede the point that he's pretty self serving

I'm in Connie's camp and I am doing what I can to support her campaign. I think she's be an excellent and progressive addition to Congress.

[No Elephants]

77. If wiki is correct, the hcr bill did not include the Hyde Amendment.

The Hyde Amendment is NOT self-executing. If it is not adopted as part of a bill, it doesn't apply. Again, I'm basing that on the wiki about the Hyde amendment.

Stupak put it into the House bill. The Senate omitted it. IIRC, No one but Stupak seemed up for the battle as part of the reconciliation process, so Stupak asked for, and got, an executive order banning use of federal money for abortion in connection with hcr bill expenditures.

[No Elephants]

76. If he is that kind of patriarchial, neo theo autocrat, I'd tend to doubt his reputation as

a "good" husband and father.

BTW, unless he has 13 or 14 kids, I assume he and wifey use birth control. People like him used to oppose even that. Even having a doctor discuss birth control with a married couple violated the law of some states. It took a Supreme Court case to overturn that. Griswold v. Connecticut.

Trouble is, with choice, we've already had the Supreme Court case, but people who took an oath about the Constitution persist in ignoring it, or acting as though it came out the opposite way (actually a number of SCOTUS cases).

And Stupak did not TRY to impose his personal religious beliefs on the rest of us. He succeeded, thanks in no small part to the Constitutional law lecturer and oath taker in chief.

[Blue Owl]

55. Or just retiring to spend more time with "The Family" (as in C Street)

n/t

[No Elephants]

75. LOL!

[FBaggins]

2. Not a seat that should be in danger.

Which likely makes this a good thing.

[sufrommich]

3. Seriously? It's a conservative district. It will go

to the republicans. I'd bet on it.

[FBaggins]

15. My mistake, you're right.

I didn't find it on my list of competitive districts. My presumption was that virtualy all of the blue dogs were in districts that leaned right and would thus be a competitive race this time around.

Sorry. Not that I can say I'm sorry to see him go.

[No Elephants]

81. Not so fast.

Please see Reply #57.

[Kolesar]

44. Democrats nominate prolife* candidates in order to win some districts

Heck, Dennis Kucinich was prolife* when he ran for congress.

*I hate using that term.

[No Elephants]

78. Use anti-abortion, which is usually more accurate. Most so called

pro lifers support both the death penalty and every military action the U.S. ever wants to take--and don't support condoms, unwed mothers, pregnant women who may die due to a pregnancy, etc. In fact, if you get down to it, you can make a very good argument that those who are pro-choice, anti-war, anti-death penalty and pro helping those in need are more pro-life than those who wish to usurp that appellation.

So-called pro-lifers object to the very accurate term "anti-abortion," while pointedly using the lying term "pro-abortion," rather than the accurate term, "pro-choice." So, who gives a rat's tail what they object to?

Tell the truth and shame the devil: We're pro-choice (and often pro life), while they're anti-abortion (and often not so much pro life).

[Kber]

57. I looked up the representatives to the Michigan State House of Representatives in the MI-01 District

Here’s the breakdown, as far as I can tell:

110 - Mike Lahti - D
109 - Steve Lindsey - D
108 - Judy Nerat - D
107 - Gary McDowell - D
106 - Andy Newman - D
105 - Kevin Elsenhelmer (sp?) - R
104 - Wayne Schmidt - D
103 - Joe Sheltown - D

It's not a sure bet either way, imo.

[No Elephants]

82. Per Reply 15, it's not on the list of competitive districts and, per Reply 57, every state rep in

the district is a Democrat.

So, I'd be interested in knowing the basis for your assertion.

[Honeycombe8]

91. I saw an analyst on CSPAN, that upon hearing Stupac is retiring, changed his district...

from "Democrat likely," to "Toss Up." He said that's because it's a very conservative district. Stupac, being very conservative and a long standing incumbent, would likely have won. Now, it's a toss-up, even if another conservative Democrat is found to run against a Republican.

It's a famous analytical organization, and I've seen this guy before. I forget the guy and the organization.

But there you go. The organization rates all the races, and studies them, so I guess it should know a little something.

All districts are not the same. Stupac's district has been conservative Dem. for a long time because of Stupac, not because it's a Democratic leaning district.

[No Elephants]

110. Again, the district went for Obama, every state rep is a D and it may have gone for Granholm, too.

And it's gone Democratic since 1933.

Whereas Stupak was incumbent, and one knows yet who ANY of the candidates are going to be, or even which parties will run candidates. (A tea partier could make a big difference.) So, it is no wonder at all that the district switched from Democratic to toss up when Stupak announced his retirement.

Edited to correct many typos!

Oops. Edited again to say that I checked Reply 57 again and must correct myself: Every state rep in the district is not Democratic. One is a Republican and all the others are Democrats.

[Honeycombe8]

116. Doesn't matter what the other districts are like. And MY district here in dark red TX went for O.

My two senators: Cornyn and Hutchison. Cornyn is an idiot, lost debates, and is a teabagger. He won my district handily.

As I said, that organization should know. It studies the likelihood of who will win the various races. When Stupac dropped out, they changed their "Democrat likely" to "tossup" for his district. Facts are facts.

[catgirl]

5. Are you sure?

I've heard otherwise.

[d_r]

10. it is a conservative district

gerrymandered rural counties

[No Elephants]

79. Please see Reply # 82.

[No Elephants]

80. Reply # 57 seems convincing.

[SharonRB]

6. I'm hoping Connie Saltonstall can hold onto the seat for us

but I'm not holding my breath (she was going to primary Stupak). It's actually a pretty conservative district.

Michael Moore must be a happy camper this morning.

[LiberalFighter]

20. If she is the only one in the primary then it should help her conserve funds for the general.

But, she loses the advantage of getting her name out before hand via a primary contest. She will have to make that up.

[Kber]

26. I hope so too.

The district went for Obama and the Democratic governer. It's not a lost cause by any means, but it's cerainly not a sure thing either.

We have a chance to get a real democrate in and we should take full advantage!

[No Elephants]

83. John Conyers, too! But the district went into Detroit then and no longer does.

"Since the election of Republican John B. Sosnowski in 1925, the former 1st district was represented by only two non-Polish-American politicians, Robert H. Clancy and John Conyers."

By any chance, is Connie Saltonstall of Polish descent? That seems to be more key in that district than Democrat or Republican.

[Statistical]

8. Maybe you are thinking about another Stupak.

There is a reason why Stupak a ultra-conservative DINO keeps getting re-elected.

Maybe just maybe the people in his district are center-right?

This would be the worst type of person to have retire.

[bottomofthehill]

45. An Ultra Conservative with ADA numbers of 90 and 95 the last two years ( 08-09)

Lets get rid of that DINO

[Statistical]

51. Never said we should get rid of him.

He simply is conservative by liberal standards.

He HAS TO BE in order to get re-elected.

I was just pointing out the reality is someone like Kucinich would be destroyed in a landslide in Stupak district.

[No Elephants]

84. Maybe there's a "happy medium" between Stupak and Kucinich?

[icee]

31. It will go Republican.

[Honeycombe8]

70. Not true. It's ultra-conservative. What WAS a shoe-in for a Dem is now a toss-up.

Unless they find ANOTHER ultra-conservative Dem., the seat will likely go to a Republican.

NOW do people understand why the Blue Dogs vote like they do? They represent conservative districts that will vote in a Republican, if they can't find a conservative Blue Dog Dem. They don't have the option of voting too far left much of the time.

All the reps answer to their constituents.

[No Elephants]

90. Please see Reply ##s 57 and 87.

[Odin2005]

4. Good riddance.

[NorthCarolina]

19. +1

[Honeycombe8]

71. I disagree. Stupac came thru with a critical vote, and brought several others along with him.

He knew he'd be taking a lot of heat (altho I'm sure he didn't realize that death threats would be involved).

It's admirable he stuck to his principles until he was satisfied the bill didn't fund abortion. How many politicians do that, really? In the end, he was willing to listen and be convinced, and he came through.

But for him, there may not have been a health care bill passed.

And if you think it's the same that his constituents may now elect a Republican in his place, think about the health care vote. Had Stupak been a Republican, there would have been absolutely NO vote for the bill, under any circumstances.

[Odin2005]

73. No, he is a bigot and a C-Street Christo-Fascist hack.

If one associates oneself with The Family one is Persona non Grata to me.

[Honeycombe8]

89. You sound like the people who hate "them librels 'cause they don't think like me."

I know Maddow did a hatchet job on him. I heard the drill. When I was listening to it, I wondered...how many people watching her show recognize that she's doing what Fox News does to those THEY don't like?

It wasn't exactly a "fair and balanced" report that she did. That's not to say that what she said wasn't true. But it was very obvious, that that wasn't the WHOLE truth, and nothing BUT the truth.

I guess you got suckered in, like Faux News viewers get suckered in.

Listen to the story being told on TV. If it's all negative...it's not a "report." It's an attack. Attacks do not tell a "fair and balanced" viewpoint.

[No Elephants]

93. Wow. Big time false equivalency.

[Odin2005]

107. Holy false equivalence Batman!

Sounds like YOU got suckered in by the relativist "all opinions are equally valid" notion that makes nonsense and evil equal and equivalent to facts and what is good. The notion that coddles climate change deniers, creationists, and practitioners of female genital mutilation.

[Honeycombe8]

117. So....you have no facts to dispute my statements? Just a personal attack on the messenger?

That's very informative...of you.

It hurts to lose. But buck up and take it like an adult. You were snookered and forgot to look at what you were eating up.

If a "news story" is ALL negative or ALL positive, it's not a news story. It's either an attack or propaganda. No person is ALL bad or ALL good.

And Maddow would not have done that report if Stupac had voted "the right way."

It's possible that Stupac "retired" in part because of the dirty ads that would've been coming out about what Maddow reported. And that's a good thing.

I love Maddow. Watch her show a lot. She's one of the most informed, intelligent show hosts/pundits out there. But make no mistake that her show is the news hour, 'cause it's not. She has an agenda, like Hannity has an agenda, like Olbermann has an agenda. To get the whole story, I get news from various sources, and from various TV stations. CNN seems to be the most neutral, generally speaking.

[No Elephants]

92. You seem to confuse someone who sticks to his principles with someone who forces YOU to stick to his

principles.

It's kind of easy for Stupak to stick to his principles about abortion, isn't it? He's never going to need or want one, is he. And, if his wife or daughter needs one, he's going to be able to pay for a safe, legal abortion--maybe using some of that federal oney taxpayers have been laying on him since 1993, courtesy of Democratic voters.

No, the only principle to which he "stuck" was taking away from less wealthy women the ability to have a safe, legal abortion, the only medical procedure that is a constitutional right. And he took an oath, not to impose his religious beliefs on America, but to uphold the Constitution, which includes both the right to abortion and the right NOT to have Congressmen voting to impose their religious beliefs on us.

Besides, in one post, you say he has to vote that way in order to get re-elected and in another post, you commend him for sticking to his principles? So, are you telling us the principle for which Stupak sacrificed the health of poor women ala pre-Roe v. Wade days his own re-election?

I see nothing admirable in Stupak's being "stuck." Please see also Reply ##'s 36 and 76.

[customerserviceguy]

7. It's hard to run for re-election

when you've managed to piss off everybody.

Back a few weeks ago, when President Obama signed the EO that Stupak demanded, I was predicting that he'd have to find a new job come January, and I see I was right without needing either a general or a primary election to confirm that.

[icee]

33. I predicted exactly the same thing. Other things will happen

as a result of Stupak changing his mind at the last minute. Some huge, actually.

[customerserviceguy]

67. You think that maybe

the rest of the grinning idiots in that EO picture will throw in the towel? That's what I see for starters.

[No Elephants]

94. Yep. When a Congressman puts a popular POTUS AND the head of the DNC in a very awkward position,

consequences may well happen.

[zazen]

9. I think he acted in good faith and is fed up with ingratitude on all sides

I don't agree with him, but I don't doubt he's a decent man who was voting his conscience, trying to work out a compromise all could live with, who ended up being vilified on all sides after busting his ass in Congress (and if you know any of these folks, most of them really do bust their asses, day in and day out).

He probably just had enough of being demonized for putting in 16 hour days doing what he thought was the right thing. I wish him well.

And I hope we can keep the seat.

[sufrommich]

12. I agree, other than abortion,he was a good democratic

representative for his district. I doubt we'll hold that district again for a very long time, if ever.

[No Elephants]

96. Jaysus!

[seabeckind]

17. Maybe you have to get to know him...

but to me he comes across as a jerk who is manipulated too much by special interests. A C street guy?

Far as I'm concerned, we don't need democrats who come into our tent and then start trying to change our basic principles. He knew what we stood for when he started but came to us cause his buddies didn't want him. He couldn't compete with the conservatives in his district so he figured he'd pick up a few cons and all the disgusted dems and be a shoe-in.

Figured he'd just call it in and live a good life wheeling and dealing. Too bad it didn't work out for him. Maybe he can become a Fox or CNN "consultant" and b!tch about how mean we were to him. Good riddance.

I put Evan Bayh in the same category.

Two assholes who could have done some real good -- and didn't.

Having the seat shouldn't be the primary goal.

[LiberalFighter]

21. Politicians that are high and mighty about the issues but don't do diddly.

I've checked Bayh's record on legislation and nothing he sponsored has passed. What was he doing for the past 11 years?

[icee]

35. He was playing both sides from the middle. Undoubtedly he

made a few bucks. I few him with utter unmitigated contempt.

[No Elephants]

98. Maybe he came to us bc his district has elected Polish Democrats since 1933, except for John Conyers

?

I don't know. Maybe someone else here knows?

[Scruffy1]

22. A good man wouldn't be such a horses ass

I don't know what Stupak believes and no one else knows but Stupak. It's funny how we always give these crazy cult members the out they they act out of principal. Abortion rates have nothing to do with laws and anyone who does even the slightestresearch on the subject would find the countrieas with the most restrictive laws have the highest rates and the least restrictvw countries the lowest. Abortion is either a red herring to get votes or he is letting his dogma overrule reason. Either way he's a lousy Congressman and it makes no difference if they have a D or
an R in front of their name. Personally I think he overreached to get teabagger support (money)
and was facing a dem primary challenge plus the teabaggers, and decided to go for better pickings.
He's about as principaled as Coburn and Imhoff

[n.michigan]

30. Disagree. You sound like apologists. We need new everywhere.

What he did for the Catholic Church and what he risked for THEM and I do mean he held US hostage, brooks no common allegiance. Good riddance. I am sure he will now find a job with Rome.

The Chamber of Business tries to run Northern Michigan politics. So.. I guess the MESSAGE for the DC contingent is to actually FINANCE this race in a rural but large region- a campaign battle and a good one for practice-see Howard Dean. The left is actually growing here and quite strong in lower MI- Antrim, Charlevoix, Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Benzie. And had OBAMA actually stood for the populist changehe promised and not disillusionment (Granholm too is a great Dem disappointment) it would have captured many of independent and uncommitted heart that the Partiers have tried to claim. People actually like to get something for their tax dollars- not just fund the wars, corporations. We all know it. Our country needs help for our people.

Upper MI is rural farming, tourist oriented and the Chamber is Republican- so is most of tv/radio. That means hand to hand combat.

[No Elephants]

99. THANK YOU. Please see Reply #87, too.

[JerseygirlCT]

61. Couple of things:

one, you get into bed with snakes, don't be surprised when you're bit. His kowtowing to his anti-woman buddies at C Street got him exactly what he deserved - loyalty from those boys is all about self-interest.

Second, his anti-woman views OUGHT to get him nothing from Democrats. I don't believe what he did can be done in "good faith". There's just no "good faith" way to deny women their rights.

But I too hope we hold the seat. This time with a Democrat.

[Honeycombe8]

72. I agree. It's refreshing to see someone who doesn't hate someone because of his political position.

I'm getting so tired of all the hate because someone doesn't think or act just like someone else.

Stupac came through, in the end. If his district votes in a Republican, which is likely, there will be NO "coming through" in the end on any Democratic bills.

A Blue Dog is NOT the same as a Republican.

[No Elephants]

95. Please see Reply 92.

[Hubert Flottz]

11. I'll bet his ancestors spelled their name Stupid before they came

to America and changed the spelling.

I'd change it again, to DINO.

[lebkuchen]

58. C Street may have a domino effect

starting with Stupak.

Happy spring!

[Hubert Flottz]

65. I am very happy it's spring!

I think Stu got a taste of the GOPer's Jim Jones Kool-Aid and it warped his brain. I think Kool-Aid spiked with 36 year Viagra is in the pipes over at the C Street snake den/cat house. I wouldn't be surprised if Stu was caught wearing a Dave Vitter Designer Diaper on his days off.

[davidwparker]

13. bye-bye

[Skinner]

14. Hope we can hold the seat.

In 2008, Michigan's first congressional district went for Obama 50-48.

I worked on a statewide campaign in Michigan back in the mid-nineties. If I remember correctly, the district's voters are pretty old, and fairly conservative -- but there are a lot of retired union members (Mining).

Stupak would have held the seat handily. Now I suspect it will be a tossup.

[sufrommich]

16. I'll be surprised if it even garners "toss up" catagory.

My parents live in his district, my mother was born in the U.P. ,I've spent every summer of my life up there.It's conservative,the miners (the few of them who are left) will vote against their own interests, as will the retirees and small business owners. We'll see a republican in there as soon as his seat comes up.

[Skinner]

18. That's what I thought.

Until I checked and found out that Obama won the district. Didn't expect that.

[sufrommich]

23. Obama had a massive GOTV campaign and probably

benefited from votes coming from students at Northern and Michigan Tech. Will the Stupak seat have the same amount of enthusiasm? Highly doubtful.

[SharonRB]

27. It's Michael Moore's home district

I assume he'll do whatever he can up there to get a Dem elected, and I wouldn't be surprised if he helps out at the college campuses for GOTV. I know he wanted to see Stupak gone.

[Kber]

29. I think Jen Graham won the district as well

and I believe the split is about 53 / 47, lower peninsula to upper and it's physically huge.

Connie is pulling together a professional campaign staff, but, assuming she wins the primary, of course, is going to need some serious support.

I do hope, however, that with Bart gone, that republicans and tea baggers who have made him a lightning rod will lose focus.

[SharonRB]

37. Does Connie have primary competition now?

I hadn't heard about anyone else running other than her and Bart.

[Kber]

53. Not as of this morning.

Who knows what will happen in the next few weeks.

The filing deadline is May (I think the 15th?) and you need 1000 certified signatures to be on the ballot for the August Primary, so there's time for things to change.

[No Elephants]

88. Governor Granholm?

[AngryOldDem]

68. It's a concern.

So I'm kind of surprised at all the happy-dancing being done in this thread.

This is just one more district that Obama didn't carry/carried narrowly in 2008. That's not an especially good omen.

[No Elephants]

102. Obama carried. Someone thinks Granholm did too. See also Relplies 30, 57 and 87.

You're surprised at all the happy dancing. I'm dismayed at all the defeatism and surrender about losing the district.

The happy dancing has no real life consequences. Stupak's decision has been made--or made for him--and announced. The defeatism about the upcoming election, however, could become a self fulfilling prophesy. We ought to be figuring out what COULD win that district, instead of crapping our Democratic undies everytime someone says "conservative."

Farmers and miners can be won with populism. Miners tend to be union members. Democrats are the real populists and the real party of working people, especially liberals. No one has to say the word liberal, though. Just talk populist. This is a historically Democratic distritct that also likes to elect people of Polish descent, so maybe a Polish Democrat is the ticket (pun intended).

[No Elephants]

101. Maybe, but please see Reply ##s 30 and 87 before you get too discouraged.

In particular, Reply #30 seems to have been written by someone very familiar with the district.

[Jefferson23]

24. I hated that he received death threats, unbelievable and disgusting.

It's going to be difficult to keep his seat, Saltonstall will be their new target. I don't know anything about her,
except that she'll need a lot of money and a great message.

If her opponent is against tough regulations for the banks, that might be one place to start.

[SharonRB]

28. I have a feeling the death threats played a big part in his decision

He said he sits down with his family every two years to make a decision on whether to run or not. I wouldn't be surprised if his family felt threatened and afraid and thought it just wasn't worth it anymore.

[EnlightenedOne]

32. My 1st thought was - C Street & Rachel Maddow

I think the heat is on or was going to be on tax wise - and ethically. He was going to have a lot of questions to answer about his low rent at C-Street.

[brooklynite]

49. self-delete

[No Elephants]

103. I think a religous organization started the flap about the low rent at C Street. If so, what irony.

Maybe rumors that Ensign may be indicted had something to do with. Putting Obama in an awkward position probably didn't help either.

Just as Scott Brown won Massachusetts via a political "perfect storm," perhaps a political perfect storm led Stupak to decide to spend more time with his Michigan family and less time with his C Street family.

[Demeter]

34. Stupak Is A Victim of His Own Actions

no great loss. Because Michigan is in such dire straits, and has been for nearly a decade, I wouldn't say it's a clear shot for the GOP, either.

This could be interesting. Too bad there isn't a better President to give a coattail lift to the Democrats in 2010. Obama's corporatist ways may prove to be the biggest drawback to the Party since the Iran hostage crisis mousetrapped Carter.

[n.michigan]

38. Right on. Obama/Granholm dems are the problem for recruitment. We need Wellstone, Dean.

[Demeter]

40. Granholm Has Done Her Best for Michigan

If we could clean the vipers out of the state Senate she could have gotten more done. I am grateful that she was in the office. Too bad she can't run for President!

[n.michigan]

42. Yuck on Granholm-no guts for the people. David Bonior will be a much stronger governor!

Heroic even- fighting Hoekstra! He is a Wellstone type of liberal, 100% populist and has plenty of political experience- ran the House Dems.

[sufrommich]

43. David Bonior isn't running for govorner. Virg Bernero is ,and

that is who I'm supporting.

[louis-t]

59. I like Bonior, but, excuse me

Jennifer Granholm has spent the last 6 years trying to clean up the mess left by John Engler with no help from repugs in the legislature. $4 billion. That's how much debt John bush, I mean Engler left this state. He tried to hide it, he lied about it. Engler gave his friends in manufacturing billions of our tax money. They left the state anyway, and now he's the president of the national association of manufacturers.

[n.michigan]

63. Granholm went after - what was it? price tags at big box stores. Sorry- she never was strong.

She certainly didn't go after Enron- nor did Mike Cox and we suffered from that pension withdrawal-millions. Ken friend of George friend of John.

[Jennicut]

39. He tried to play both sides of the fence and now when the heat got turned up too high, he

turns his back on the Democrats. Because he will hurt the Dem voters in the rest of the country by giving the Rethugs more of a chance to take back the House.
We will have a Republican in that seat now. Thanks Stupak. At least he did one good thing before leaving, actually voting for the HCR bill. I love how conservative Dems always fold (like Bayh) but the liberals fight back (like Grayson).

[defendandprotect]

48. Stupak got what he wanted . . . more anti-abortion legislation from Obama ....

Might not have changed anything of Hyde's dirty work, but it was a demand met

with a new promise by Obama/Dems -- and added another lawyer of confirmation to

the Hyde amendment. I'd like to say that the left chased this skunk out of office,

but it looks like the right wing did us the favor!

[marshall]

41. I expect we'll see a mass exodus the likes of which we've never had

It's way past time to clean house, and they know it.

[xchrom]

46. It's his own goddamned fault. Nt

[defendandprotect]

47. ...and his questionable financial set up with THE FAMILY "housing" ....

[brooklynite]

50. COOK POLITICAL REPORT now rates this district as "Toss-Up"

The fact that Stupak got handily re-elected (60-65% of the vote) time after time, tells me that this is not a district amenable to the sort of progressive that many people here support. Not saying they shouldn't run, but you'd better be prepared to really chip in time and money to pull out a win, or be prepared for an obstructionist Republican who's just a pro-life.

[n.michigan]

52. Betting it could be Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer. (R)

[No Elephants]

109. I googled something and came up with another candidate, a male MD of Polish descent.

And, unfortunately, because I hate going there, I also came up with a link to FREEP that indicates Facebook is going crazy with donations to him, speculating that the money bomb might be because of his Polish ancestry. His name is Dan Benischek.

We'd better make sure the Democratic candidate has a money bomb, too.

[No Elephants]

105. Wrong conclusion. Look upthread. The ADA rated him something like 95%.

He was against abortion, but seems to have been relatively "progressive" otherwise. See also Reply @ 102.

[dflprincess]

56. I wonder what lobbying group he'll start working for next January n/t

[JerseygirlCT]

60. Good... no, GREAT news

There's no excuse for his anti-choice position. None.

See ya, jerk.

[JNelson6563]

62. K&R Bye Bart!

Don't let the door hitch where the good lord splitcha! :toast:

Julie

[DCBob]

64. We just lost another seat... this district will go Rethug. Are you "Progressives" happy about that??

It is a conservative district that only a Blue Dog Dem could win.

[No Elephants]

108. UM, it wasn't "Progressives" as you put it, who caused Stupak to retire.

So, maybe your question would more appropriately be directed to the conservatives here, or at FREEP, or both. Or possibly the President. (On that topic, see the posts upthread by bluestateguy and icee.)

By the way, since the campaign hasn't even begun yet, let alone the election lost, you might also check out Reply # 102.

[DCBob]

111. Best case scenario, this seat is won by another Blue Dog.. most likely it goes GOP..

So why are "progressives" cheering??

[No Elephants]

112. Disagree. I don't think anyone knows yet what is going to happen in this

district. For one thing, no one knows which Parties are going to put up candidates and no one knows who the candidates of each Party will be. See Reply #110.

As far as the district being likely headed for Republican, that is far from settled yet. All state reps in this federal Congressional district but one are Democrats. The district went for Obama and maybe also for Granholm.

And again, I refer you to Reply 102, both as to your defeatism and as to the cheering. I'd rather see Democrats cheering over someone who's already left the fray than predict defeat of the Democrat who'll try to win his seat. So, why are you insisting a Republican is likely to win, especially given all the Democrats for whom this district has voted?

ETA: BTW, this District has received a lot of federal stimulus money, thanks to Democrats. A smart Democratic candidate would certainly play that up.

[DCBob]

113. Sure.. lets check back in Nov..

Ciao.

[No Elephants]

114. And do what? Prove I was wrong when I said no one knows for certain today who is going to win?

Good luck with that.

[marshall]

66. Good riddance!

You served your purpose for once, Stupak. Now STFU and go away!

[tomm2thumbs]

69. We need a non-resident of C-Street Democrat anyway - good bye

When a Democrat is fighting the Democratic party, the party name obviously means very little. Is C-Street losing tenants left and right or what?

AP Story has information from his interview on the phone with him officially giving word of his resignation late-night Friday

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100410/ap_on_el_ho/us_stupak_retiring

[robcon]

74. Bad news... the district will go repug.

The district went from safe Democrat to leans Republican on RCP.

[Lorien]

85. How did Stupak differ from any repug on the issues?

The letter behind a candidates name means little these days.

[amandabeech]

97. Stupak voted against the Iraq War Resolution.

As a poster above noted, he's 90-95% by the ADA.

He has a thing about abortion, but the rest of his record is as progressive as it could be given the social, but not economic, conservatism of his district (with the exception of the transplants around Traverse City).

[No Elephants]

106. Voting against war would be consistent with a pro-life position, at least as

Catholics view being pro-life. It is a more consistent position than that of evangelicals.

[No Elephants]

86. So you gave up based on that? Good grief.

[No Elephants]

87. Read the wiki of this district. It has not sent a Republican to Congress since

1933. A guy who ran as a Republican several times--and lost--changed his party to Democrat and then won. In other words, they have long been Depression Democrats.

Historically, being Polish AND Democratic has been the key. And since 1933, only one person who was not of Polish descent has won the district, namely African American Democrat John Conyers. He got in after the district was re-districted. At the time Conyers won, the district included part of Detroit, which it no longer does.

I don't know if it always included part of Detroit, though. Does anyone?

In any case, in 1993, after the re-districting, Stupak followed Conyers. We know Stupak seems conservative now, but do we know what he ran on in 1993? And, according to Reply # 57, ALL the state reps in the district are current Democrats.

Despite the history, according to some "gutsy" DUers, only a conservative can possibly win the district, but it will probably go to Republicans.

With all due respect to Saltonstall, if she has no Polish ancestry, maybe Democrats should look at someone who does?

Ordinarily, I don't favor identity politics, but the history in this district is startlingly compelling.

ETA: Please also see Reply #30.

[amandabeech]

100. The districts in Michigan have been renumbered.

Stupak's district is the Upper Peninsula and the northern part of the lower. It isn't even close to Detroit and Conyers has never been the congressman up there.

What you need to do is get maps of the UP and Northern Lower districts over the years. The numbers won't stay stable.

For example, my home district currently held by Hoekstra, used to be called the 2d, then the 9th. After 2011 redistricting, it's liable to have a different number since Michigan will lose a district or two.

Once you figure out the numbers that the district has carried over the years, then maybe you can revise your Polish theory. I'm not sure that Stupak is Polish, actually. It's slavik, but that does not always mean Polish. Lots of Finns, Norwegians and Swedes up there, too, along with Cornish. Quite a few members of the Chippewa/Ojibway nation, as well.

Or you can just pm Kaleva. He lives up there, and I think that he was born there.

[No Elephants]

104. Thanks. Did you look at the wiki, though? It accounts for re-numbering.

The district was re-drawn, too. So, I am not sure that a part of Detroit was never in the district. Wiki does seem to think Stupak is of Polish descent. And, almost the first thing a rightie who thought he would be running against Stupak said was that his mother was of Polish descent and his father was of Bohemian descent. http://www.rightsidenews.com/201003229196/editorial/stupak-is-toast-the-purge-begins-with-him.html

Nonetheless, I would be glad to abandon my Polish theory, though. As my post suggested, I am not especially comfortable with identity politics.

[Jim Lane]

115. I'm lining up with the "leans Republican but we have a decent shot" crowd

That Obama carried the district isn't enough. Its PVI is R+3, meaning that, over the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections combined, the Republican candidate's percentage of the vote was, on average, three points higher than it was nationwide. Add in the tendency of a President's party to lose seats in the midterm, and I think this has to be considered a very good opportunity for the Republicans.

On the other hand, it's no lock for them. There are plenty of Democratic Congressmembers from districts with PVI's slightly favoring the Republicans (and, alas, plenty of Republicans representing D+1, D+2, D+3 districts).

The advantage of looking at PVI is that it factors out the personal popularity or unpopularity of the particular Congressional candidates in that district. The phony George Bush ranch in Crawford is in a district represented by a Democrat, Chet Edwards. Alas, the PVI is R+20, so whenever we lose the benefits of Edwards's popularity and incumbency, the seat will go red. The Stupak seat will be much more of a fight.